Technology and Economic of
Energy Production with GHG
stabilization
Michael Obersteiner
I H S - IIASA
Overview
• Motivate low GHG concentration targets
• Review the role of Biomass based
technologies in the global carbon cycle
• Role of BECS in stabilization scenarios
• Propose a Tool-box to analyse biomass
based technolgies
• Conclude
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Crucial facts
• Climate has been abrupt
• The GHGs are out of bounds
• Highly correlated
Source: Petit et al. 1998
Based on IPCC (2001) and Steffen et al. (1998)
Atmospheric Pool
GPP
120 Gt C yr-1
Plant
Respiration
60 Gt C yr
-1
Disturbance
Decomposition
50 Gt C yr
-1
9 Gt C yr -1
Biomass
Fossil Fuels
6 Gt C yr
conversion
3-12 Gt C yr
-1
NPP
NEP
NBP
60 Gt C yr-1
10 Gt C yr-1
±1 Gt C yr-1
Geological/Soil Pool
-1
Carbon Dioxide
plantations
forests
grasslands
& shrubs
Aquatic
ecosystems
agriculture
Electricity and Heat
Durable
Products
Energy Carries
Biomass
&
waste
Forest, Plastics and Fibre Products
Products based on Molecular carbon
Carbon to
Permanent Storage
Bioenergy/Scrubbing/Storage
as a Mitigation Technology
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
IPCC SRES Scenarios
25
A1B
Scrubbing
20
B1
Scrubbing
GtC
15
10
5
0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
Hydrogen Costs and CO2 Taxes
20
SMR
(Base case)
18
SMR-R
(w . carbon scrubbing)
Hydrogen cost ($/GJ-H2)
16
14
SMR
(size x 10)
12
SMR-R
(size x 10)
10
8
BHP
(Base case )
6
BHP-R
(w . carbon scrubbing)
4
2
BHP-R
(CO2 x 2)
0
0
100
200
300
Carbon tax ($/tC)
Makihira et al. (2002)
400
500
Present Situation
• Biomass-based hydrogen production is more
costly than steam-reforming of natural gas (at
present costs)
• Main reasons:
– Limitation of plant sizes for BHP
– Lack of experience with the BHP technology
Long-term Perspectives
• BHP with (and without) carbon sequestration could
play a major role in the decarbonization of the energysystem
• BHP with carbon seq. is a powerful technology to
hedge against uncertainty of climate change (due to its
negative emissions)
• BHP is one option in a diversified portfolio of many
possible mitigation measures
• Short-term action needed to “buy down” costs
(technology policies):
– Investments in demonstration plants
– Targeted R&D
– Capacity building
BECS-toolbox
Global Carbon
Cycle
Electricity and Heat
Land Use/cover
Hydrogen
Biomass Productivity
Biomass Products
2100
Ancillary Cost /
Technology data
2050
2000
Sequestered carbon
Geography of Re-&Afforestation
Conclusion
• BECS is just a cluster with many other
technologies (e.g. wind, Natural Gas, solar
etc)
• Within BECS there is already today a large
variety of different technologies and many
more are expected to be introduced in the
future.
Continued…
• Biomass based Negative Emission
Technologies are instrumental for robust
climate policy – Attainability of low
emission targets
• BECS reduces substantially total system
costs
• “Terra Preta Systems” (with advanced
biomass conversion) MUST have a great
future…..