Technology and Economic of Energy Production with GHG stabilization Michael Obersteiner I H S - IIASA Overview • Motivate low GHG concentration targets • Review the role of Biomass based technologies in the global carbon cycle • Role of BECS in stabilization scenarios • Propose a Tool-box to analyse biomass based technolgies • Conclude …if you are a Chartist Your JPN - GDP Stocks index?? Buy Gold EU - GDP Crucial facts • Climate has been abrupt • The GHGs are out of bounds • Highly correlated Source: Petit et al. 1998 Based on IPCC (2001) and Steffen et al. (1998) Atmospheric Pool GPP 120 Gt C yr-1 Plant Respiration 60 Gt C yr -1 Disturbance Decomposition 50 Gt C yr -1 9 Gt C yr -1 Biomass Fossil Fuels 6 Gt C yr conversion 3-12 Gt C yr -1 NPP NEP NBP 60 Gt C yr-1 10 Gt C yr-1 ±1 Gt C yr-1 Geological/Soil Pool -1 Carbon Dioxide plantations forests grasslands & shrubs Aquatic ecosystems agriculture Electricity and Heat Durable Products Energy Carries Biomass & waste Forest, Plastics and Fibre Products Products based on Molecular carbon Carbon to Permanent Storage Bioenergy/Scrubbing/Storage as a Mitigation Technology Carbon Dioxide Emissions IPCC SRES Scenarios 25 A1B Scrubbing 20 B1 Scrubbing GtC 15 10 5 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Hydrogen Costs and CO2 Taxes 20 SMR (Base case) 18 SMR-R (w . carbon scrubbing) Hydrogen cost ($/GJ-H2) 16 14 SMR (size x 10) 12 SMR-R (size x 10) 10 8 BHP (Base case ) 6 BHP-R (w . carbon scrubbing) 4 2 BHP-R (CO2 x 2) 0 0 100 200 300 Carbon tax ($/tC) Makihira et al. (2002) 400 500 Present Situation • Biomass-based hydrogen production is more costly than steam-reforming of natural gas (at present costs) • Main reasons: – Limitation of plant sizes for BHP – Lack of experience with the BHP technology Long-term Perspectives • BHP with (and without) carbon sequestration could play a major role in the decarbonization of the energysystem • BHP with carbon seq. is a powerful technology to hedge against uncertainty of climate change (due to its negative emissions) • BHP is one option in a diversified portfolio of many possible mitigation measures • Short-term action needed to “buy down” costs (technology policies): – Investments in demonstration plants – Targeted R&D – Capacity building BECS-toolbox Global Carbon Cycle Electricity and Heat Land Use/cover Hydrogen Biomass Productivity Biomass Products 2100 Ancillary Cost / Technology data 2050 2000 Sequestered carbon Geography of Re-&Afforestation Conclusion • BECS is just a cluster with many other technologies (e.g. wind, Natural Gas, solar etc) • Within BECS there is already today a large variety of different technologies and many more are expected to be introduced in the future. Continued… • Biomass based Negative Emission Technologies are instrumental for robust climate policy – Attainability of low emission targets • BECS reduces substantially total system costs • “Terra Preta Systems” (with advanced biomass conversion) MUST have a great future…..