Jeffrey S. Passel
Pew Hispanic Center
Immigration Patterns
U.S. Immigration Trends:
A Focus on
Agriculture & California
• Demography of Immigration
-- Emerging Trends, New Areas
-- Centrality of Mexico & CA
-- Regional Variation
• Human Capital
-- Role of Agriculture
-- Occupations
-- Education & Income
-- Health Insurance & Poverty
Labor Markets in a Global Economy
International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium
Washington, DC – January 7, 2008
Demographic Trends
•
Growing Numbers
21stst Century:
Current In-Flows Are Very High
Millions of Immigrants
15+?
14-16+
(est.)
-- Percents Approaching Historic Highs
Europe/Canada (Legal)
•
•
•
All Other (Legal)
Emergence of New Centers
Additional*
Rapid Growth of Mexicans
9.0
7
6.0
5.2
Maturing of California
1.7
Agricultural Areas NOT Typical
4.1
3.7
-- New Areas Like CA of 1980s
•
10
* Additional immigrants
are mostly illegals and
legalized aliens
0.1
2.6 2.3
3.8
2.8
2.5
0.6
0.5
1.0
s
00
20
s
80
19
s
60
19
s
40
19
s
20
19
s
00
19
s
80
18
s
60
18
s
40
18
s
20
18
Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing —
Percent Approaches Historic Highs
40
(2007 CPS)
Percent Foreign-Born of Total
Unauthorized
Migrants
(11.5 million) 31%
Legal Permanent
Resident (LPR)
Aliens
(12.2 million) 32%
37.3 Million
Foreign-Born Population (millions)
Legal Status of Immigrants
30
14.8 Percent
20
14 Million
(1930)
9.6 Million
(1970)
10
12.3 Percent
4.7 Percent
0
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
(2007)
1960
1980
38.1 Million Foreign-Born in 2006
2000
Latin Americans & Asians
Dominate Foreign-Born
Mexico -- 32%
12.0 million
Temporary Legal
Residents
(1.3 million) 3%
Naturalized
Citizens (former LPRs)
(13.1 million) 34%
Unauthorized Clearly at
New High -- Trend Uncertain
Millions of Unauthorized Migrants Living in the U.S.
11.5
Other Latin America -- 24%
9.0 million
(2006)
8.4
Africa & Other -- 5%
1.8 million
Asia -- 26%
9.7 million
4
3
3.3
2.5
Europe & Canada -- 14%
5.1 million
37.6 Million Foreign-Born in 2006
5
3.9
4-80 1-82
6-86
6-89
10-92
10-96
4-00
3-05
Most Undocumented
Arrived Since 1990
Mexico is Largest Source
of Unauthorized, Too
4.8 million – 41%
1980s
Other
Latin America -- 26%
1.4 million -- 12%
3.0 million
(770,000 per year)
(140,000 per year)
2000-06
Mexico -- 57%
6.5 million
Asia -- 10%
1.2 million
1995-1999
Europe &
Canada -- 2%
1990-94
3.0 million -- 26%
2.3 million -- 20%
(600,000 per year)
0.2 million
(460,000 per year)
Africa & Other -- 5%
0.6 million
11.5 Million in March 2006
11.5 Million in March 2006
(Analytic estimates)
Major Redistribution Away From
Big 6 Settlement States
Huge Share of Mexicans Are In U.S.
Millions of Mexican Migrants in U.S.
Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born
Percent of Total Unauthorized Migrant Population
42%
42%
32%
11,970,000
10
9.8
(2006 CPS--Adjusted)
30%
4.8 Million
8
1990 (3.5 million)
2006 (11.5 million)
6
22%
24%
23%
Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)
Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born Population
Percent of Mexican Population in U.S.
6.7
18%
20% -700,000
16%
4.5
4
12%
760,000
13%12%
10%
8%
8%
(1970 Census)
9%
7%
10%
2
6%
3%
3%
.486 .641 .377 .454 .576
.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .103 .222
1.4%
0%
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
All Other
1880
NJ
1870
IL
1860
FL
1850
NY
1840
TX
6%
5.2%
5%
0
CA
2.2
Mexican Migration Follows Trends in
U.S. Employment Rate
Annual Immigration (in 000s)
Å Start
Å Peak Æ
% Employed of
Labor Force
End Æ
97%
Spike in ’99-’00;
Unauthorized Exceed LPRs
Å Start
Annual Immigration (in 000s)
Å Peak Æ
End Æ
750
Legal Permanent Residents
Unauthorized
Migrants
96%
500
Mexico-U.S.
Migration
95%
500
94%
93%
250
250
U.S. Employment Rate
92%
(Complement of
Unemployment Rate)
Legal Temporary
Migrants
91%
0
1990
90%
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Mexicans Lead Diversification
58% -- 2.5 million
Percent of U.S. Mexicans
0
1990
1992
1994
21
1990 (4.5 Million)
1996 (6.7 Million)
2006 (12 Million)
31% -- 3.8 million
19
12% -- 0.5 million
6
3
California
Texas
Arizona
6
5
Illinois
All Others
1998
2000
2002
2004
Unauthorized in Lower Wage
& Education Occupations
Management, Business, &
Professional 9% – (34%)
41% -- 4.8 million
1996
Transportation &
Material Moving
8% – (6%)
Production,
Installation, &
Repair
15% – (10%)
Construction & Extractive
22% – (7%)
Service Occupations
30% – (17%*)
* Share of native workers
in occupation shown in
parentheses.
Sales & Admin.
Support
12% – (25%)
Farming, etc. 3% – (0.5%)
7.8 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2006
Most Concentrated Occupations
CA Economic Areas
Percent Unauthorized within Occupation Group, 2006
1 San Joaquin Valley* -- San Joaquin, Merced,
21%
Stanislaus, Madera, Fresno, Tulare, Kern
"Migrant" occupations
2 Sacramento Valley* -- Sacramento, Placer,
"Native" occupations
16%
3 North Coast* -- Sonoma, Napa
4 Central Metros -- San Franciso, San
Mateo, Marin, Alameda, Contra Costa,
Santa Clara
5.2%
10%
5 Coastal Metros* -- Santa Cruz,
7%
Transport
`
Production
Food Prep.
El Dorado, Yuba, Sutter, Yolo, Butte
Overall Proportion
Of Workers Who Are
Unauthorized —
13%
Cleaning
Construction
Farming
17%
Food prep. Production Transport &
Farm, fish, Construction Building
material
& serving occupations
and forest & extractive cleaning &
mov. occs.
occs.
maint. occs.
occs.
occs.
Monterey (San Benito), San Luis
Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura
2%
6 Desert(*) -- San Bernardino,
Riverside, Imperial
7 Southern Metros –
All other
occs.
Los Angeles, Orange,
San Diego
* Agricultural Area
Ag Areas Have Smallest
Percent Foreign-Born
Border State Areas
•California Agriculture*
– San Joaquin Valley
– Sacramento Valley
– Northern Coast
– Central Coastal Metros
•California Border
– Los Angeles
– Southern CA Metros
•Non- Border Metros
– Bay Area Core Metros
– Albuquerque NM
– Houston TX
– Dallas-Ft. Worth TX **
– Phoenix AZ **, etc.
•Border Metros
– Yuma* & Tucson, AZ
– Las Cruces NM*
– El Paso TX
– Laredo, McAllen, &
Brownsville TX*
– San Antonio TX
•Balances of State*
– CA Balance (0.4 million)
– AZ Balance (0.7 million)
– NM Balance (0.7 million)
– TX Balance (3.7 million)
* Agricultural Area
** Rapid Growth Area
Percent Foreign-Born in Area, ’06 CPS
(% Unauthorized of Foreign-Born above Bar)
26%
26%
Legal Immigrants
Undocumented
31%
43%
25%
21%
38%
13%
`
9%
9%
45%
9%
36%
7%
7%
7%
Border
States
CA Total
6%
CA
Agriculture
9%
Southern
CA
6%
Other
Border
Metros
7%
Non-Border
Metros
State
Balances
Dimensions of
Immigrant Human Capital
Percent of Persons Aged 25-64 Years, 2006 CPS
Less than High School Grad
Low Education for Mexicans
60%
60%
56%
High Education for Others
Entered 1996 or Later
Entered Before 1996
High Attachment to Labor Force
24%
25%
25%
86
81
N
LPR Alien Refugees
Undoc.
6% 5%
Natz.Citz.
LPR Alien Refugees
Undoc.
Percent Unemployed, Ages 18-64: ‘05-’06 CPS
Females
Males
Females
Non-Ag Areas
Agricultural Areas
82
6%
Ag Unemployment is High, Too
Percent in Labor Force, Ages 18-64: 2006 CPS
Males
18%
17%
9%
Natz.Citz.
Labor Force Attachment is High
94 95
25%
iv
es
Agricultural & Border Areas -Tied to Agriculture
Limited Mobility & Opportunity
83
College Degree
or Beyond
71%
at
•
•
•
•
Education in “Ag Areas” -“Hourglass" & "Diamond"
Non-Ag Areas
Agricultural Areas
12.2
11.7
71
69
63
9.3
59
8.2
58
48
6.6
5.6
4.7 5.0
5.0
5.7
4.3
2.7
Natives
Legal
Immigrants
Undocumented
Natives
Legal
Immigrants
Undocumented
Natives
Legal
Immigrants
Undocumented
Natives
Legal
Immigrants
Undocumented
Mexicans Stay in Agriculture
Percent of Employed Males Aged 18-64 in Agriculture Industry, ‘04-’06 CPS
Mexicans Stay in Agriculture
Percent of Employed Males Aged 16-64 in Agriculture Occupation, ‘04-’06 CPS
36%
33%
33%
CA Agricultural Areas
CA Agricultural Areas
28%
Balance of California
Balance of California
23%
3.3%
0.3%
Natives
1.5%
Mexico,
<10 yrs in US
0.7%
Mexico,
10+ yrs in US
23%
1.6%
Central Amer.,
<10 yrs in US
0.0% 0.3%
2.0%
Central Amer.,
10+ yrs in US
0.0%
Other
Incomes and Welfare
0.9%
1.8%
0.2%
Natives
0.5%
Mexico,
<10 yrs in US
Mexico,
10+ yrs in US
1.5%
0.0% 0.3%
Central Amer.,
<10 yrs in US
Central Amer.,
10+ yrs in US
1.7%
0.1%
Other
Immigrant Poverty Very High
Percent in Households Below Poverty Line, 2006 CPS
• High Poverty
• Some Dynamic Integration
• Low Incomes for Immigrants
-- Large Households
-- Very Low Per Capita Income
Children (by Parents’ Status)
39
Non-Ag Areas
Agricultural Areas
30
29
25
19
24
15
Natives
12
Legal
Immigrants
25
21
19
• “Ag Areas” Even Worse
• Low Welfare Use but No Health
Insurance for Immigrants
Adults
Undocumented
14
Natives
Legal
Immigrants
Undocumented
Low Incomes for Immigrants
Average Family Income, 2006 CPS
Large Families for Immigrants
Average Family Size, 2006 CPS
Natives
$60,700
$53,500
2.62
2.55
Natives
$48,800
2.30
$40,600
2.21
1.94
1.76
$32,500
$25,100
Undocumented
Legal
Undocumented
CA Agricultural Areas
Legal
Balance of California
Agricultural Areas
Undocumented
Legal
Undocumented
CA Agricultural Areas
Balance of California
Very Low Incomes Per Capita
Average Household Income per Person, 2006 CPS
Legal
Balance of California
Agricultural Areas
Balance of California
Limited Access to Insurance
Percent without Health Insurance 2006 CPS in California
Natives
Children
$34,500
$25,100
Adults
(by Parents’ Status)
58
Natives
Immigrants
$24,200
42
35
$15,500
$14,200
26
21
$9,800
15
15
9
Undocumented
Legal
Undocumented
CA Agricultural Areas
Legal
Balance of California
Agricultural Areas
Balance of California
Natives
Legal
Immigrants
Undocumented
Natives
Legal
Immigrants
Undocumented
•
•
•
•
•
Conclusions
For more information,
contact:
Growing Numbers & Percents
Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D.
Pew Hispanic Center
Immigrants Go to Agriculture
Very Low Incomes
Very Limited Benefits
Limited Opportunities & Mobility
(Pew Research Center)
1615 L St., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
(202) 419-3625
jpassel@pewhispanic.org
www.pewhispanic.org