VOLUME 4, NO.1 SEPTEMBER 2008 FRONT MATTER 3 Editors’ note ARTICLES & NOTES 4 New Labour, New Aid? A Quantitative Examination of the Department for International Development Alan Webster 29 Motivating Altruism: Multinational Enterprises and Corporate Social Responsibility Victoria Weininger 47 The Power Sharing Experience in Northern Ireland and Sri Lanka Ayesha Zuhair 61 One State or Two? The Search for a Solution to the Cyprus Problem Nicola Solomonides INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW Editorial Staff, Volume 4 (2007-2008) General Editors Tony Daly, MSc International Public Policy, Sub-editor Theodora Kalessi, PhD School of Public Policy, Coordinator Valerie Kirwan, MSc European Public Policy, External Communications Jonny Lloyd, MSc International Public Policy, Academic Review Board Liaison Rabiah Mumtaz, MSc European Public Policy, Futures Projects Leila Reid, MSc International Public Policy, Copy Editor Tim Sarraille, MSc International Public Policy, Secretary Karl Smyth, MSc International Public Policy, Submissions Editor, Webmaster Tong Yee Siong, MSc Public Policy, Copy Editor Alexia Williams, MSc International Public Policy, Style Editor Maurice Wong, PhD School of Public Policy, Coordinator Academic Review Panel Dr Alex Braithwaite Dr Jennifer van Heerde Dr David Hudson Dr Markus Kornprobst Dr Colin Provost Dr Christine Reh Dr Sherrill Stroschein Editorial Board Guy Aitchison, MSc Democracy and Democratisation, Fabrizio Colimberti, MSc International Public Policy John Considine, MSc European Public Policy Tony Daly, MSc International Public Policy Will de Freitas, MSc International Public Policy Sam Giller, MSc International Public Policy Theodora Kalessi, PhD School of Public Policy Valerie Kirwan, MSc European Public Policy Jonny Lloyd, MSc International Public Policy Christopher McCarthy, MSc International Public Policy Rabiah Mumtaz, MSc European Public Policy Olivia Nix, MSc International Public Policy Aaron John Peters, MSc International Public Policy Manuel Ramos, MSc Public Policy Leila Reid, MSc International Public Policy Tim Sarraille, MSc International Public Policy Barbara Sennholz, MSc International Public Policy Karl Smyth, MSc International Public Policy Tong Yee Siong, MSc Public Policy Alexia Williams, MSc International Public Policy Maurice Wong, PhD School of Public Policy The INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW (ISSN: 1748-5207) is a peer-reviewed, student-edited, and faculty supervised academic journal published annually by the University College London’s School of Public Policy, London, United Kingdom. IPPR welcomes submissions from faculty and postgraduate students of any educational institution, of both Articles (original empirical investigations, between 6,000 and 15,000 words) and Essays/Notes (empirical or scholarly commentary pieces, between 2,000 and 4,000 words). All submissions are reviewed anonymously. The Academic Review Panel and the plenary session of the Editorial Board must also approve pieces selected for publication by anonymous referees. Manuscripts may be submitted electronically to ippr@ucl.ac.uk or sent in hard copy to the address below. (For nonelectronic submissions, two copies must be provided, and manuscripts will not be returned). All submissions must include the Submission Form and conform to the style and formatting guidelines provided at: http://www.ucl.ac.uk/spp/ippr/submissions/ To request article reprints, to submit non-electronic manuscripts, as well as for comments or queries please contact: Editorial Board, INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW, School of Public Policy, University College London, 29/30 Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9QU, United Kingdom. For the most recent issue and article archives, please visit IPPR online at: http://www.ucl.ac.uk/spp/ippr/ INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW, Volume 4, Number 1 (September 2008). [ISSN 1748-5207] © 2008 School of Public Policy, University College London, London, United Kingdom. All rights reserved. 2 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 EDITORS’ NOTE Over recent months, we have all paid witness to a series of events which have subverted and undermined the authority of national governments to manage the challenges facing the world today. A surge of riots have marked the rising food and fuel prices that have impacted most severely on the poorest countries, while the breakdown of the international financial regulatory framework has starkly demonstrated the power of private business over national economic stability. Multilateral diplomacy was unable to prevent the outbreak of inter-state warfare between Russia and Georgia, piracy reigns off the Somali coast, and the UN declared GuineaBissau the world’s first ‘narco state’. As we approach 2015, the commitments of the Millennium Development Goals appear worryingly unfeasible in many countries. These have served both to highlight the importance of multilateral, cross-national approaches to governance and to paint a dim picture of it as it stands today. They have also, however, forced the well-worn debates of the globalisation research project to spill over into the centre of public discourse. Following in the footsteps of previous editions, this fourth volume of the International Public Policy Review serves as a space for students, academics and civil society to pursue and advance these debates. While the authors in this journal touch upon a range of subjects, each exhibits a strong desire to address the complex, multi-faceted economic, social and security issues of our time. In our opening article, ‘New Labour, New Aid?,’ Alan Webster examines the changes in British aid policy in the years prior to and following the election of the Labour government in 1997. This is followed by “Motivating Altruism: Multinational Enterprises and Corporate Social Responsibility”, in which Victoria Weininger seeks to identify the main drivers behind American multinational corporations’ pursuit of ethical and sustainable business practices. The second half of this journal explores some of the most protracted civil conflicts of recent times. In “An Analysis of the Power-Sharing Experience in Northern Ireland and Sri Lanka”, Ayesha Zuhair takes a timely look at the armed conflict in Sri Lanka through a comparison with the case of Northern Ireland. Nicola Solomonides’ “One State or Two? The Search for a Solution to the Cyprus Problem” then evaluates why power-sharing mechanisms have so far proven ineffective in solving the ‘Cyprus problem’. Taken together, these articles bear out the widespread and intrinsic problems at the heart of our global system. Political will, power-sharing, development assistance and business culture all present significant and unique challenges to the underlying assumptions that order society today. We hope that these insights contribute to the many tasks and challenges that lie ahead. On behalf of the General Editors, Tony Daly Leila Reid Karl Smyth London, June 2008 3 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW NEW LABOUR, NEW AID? A QUANTITATIVE EXAMINATION OF THE DEPARTMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Alan Webster ABSTRACT International aid policy under New Labour has been widely praised as one of the world’s most progressive but it has not yet been subject to critical, quantitative review. This paper addresses that gap, comparing aid policy in the eight years before and after 1997. It concludes that New Labour has pursued a policy that has seen significantly larger sums directed at the countries in most need, and in the form most effective for development. The paper also argues that British aid has been transformed into a more purely altruistic policy, with the removal of economic conditions that had typified it in the past. Finally, this research argues that there has been a revolution in the character of British aid as New Labour has gradually moved towards initiating genuine partnerships with developing countries in contrast to the subjugation of old. In short, the paper concludes that British aid has undergone a dramatic and positive change in the last decade making it largely deserving of the admiration it has received. Keywords: International Development, Aid Policy, New Labour, DFID INTRODUCTION The New Labour government that came to power in 1997 did so pledging a comprehensive and sweeping reform of policies after eighteen years of “failed” Conservative rule.1 British overseas aid was not to be excluded as its manifesto claimed a Labour government would “attach much higher priority to combating global poverty and underdevelopment” and to reinstate the party’s tradition, since 1964, of creating a separate ministry responsible for overseeing this matter. In the ten years since this new Department for International Development (DFID) was established, British aid policy has been lauded as “a model for other rich countries.”2 Labour Party, New Labour: Because Britain Deserves Better (Labour Party: London, 1997): 3. O. Barder, “Reforming Development Assistance: Lessons from the UK Experience,” Centre for Global Development Working Papers 70 (2005): 3. 1 2 4 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 Despite more than a half century of Western overseas aid programmes, the United Nations estimates that today more than one billion people still remain in abject poverty.3 If developed countries are truly committed to assisting the development of the world’s poorest nations, then it is vital that the apparently successful policies embraced by DFID are scrutinised. Thus, this paper aims to identify the changes in aid policy pursued under New Labour that initiated the positive comments referenced above. It shall proceed by first examining the fundamental question about aid’s effectiveness in achieving development through a discussion of the neo-liberal critique of aid before broadening the issue to consider a more contemporary conceptualisation of the issue. This shall then lead to an exploration about the changing historical priorities of aid, considering whether past aid policies were actually targeted at achieving development. Then, the early, largely positive, reviews of DFID’s work shall be examined, which then shall lead to questioning whether this praise is deserved, by using a quantitative examination of whether British policy has actually altered to a more progressive state under New Labour. Finally, the paper will conclude that New Labour has largely pursued an aid policy that is both significantly different to that which came before it and systematically targeted at improving the lives of the world’s most vulnerable individuals. THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONCEPTUALISATION OF INTERNATIONAL AID New Labour came to power during a period of reflection and change in the field of international development. The end of the Cold War, the miraculous economic growth in East Asia and the failings of previous aid policies raised a myriad of questions about the future of development policy across the globe. An understanding of the evolution of aid policy from its post-war birth to the contemporary consensus, examining the changes in the perceived ‘best practise’ of aid is vital to framing the positive reactions to the first ten years of the Department for International Development. TRUMAN TO BURNSIDE AND DOLLAR: SIXTY YEARS OF AID There are two broad areas into which one can divide the debate around aid: the impact of aid on recipient countries, and the factors that influence donors’ decisions about aid spending. The first of these has been particularly controversial since aid-giving commenced. AID’S IMPACT In promising sums of money to developing nations in order to “relieve the suffering of …people…and help them realise their aspirations for a better life”, it was the 1949 inauguration speech of President Truman4 that initiated the spending of more than $1.6 United Nations, Human Development Report 2006 (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006). M. Gronemeyer, “Helping,” in The Development Dictionary: A Guide to Knowledge as Power, ed. W. Sachs (London: Zed Books, 1992): 61. 3 4 5 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW trillion in aid over the last six decades5. However, the existence of more than one billion people in abject poverty today raises difficult questions about the use of aid as a tool for assisting development and reducing poverty. Western aid-giving emerged rashly in response to the speech of President Truman, preceding the establishment of development economics as an academic pursuit. This “unprecedented economic experiment”6 led to haphazard spending before it could be subject to thorough study. By the 1950s and 1960s, however, development economics was simultaneously measuring aid’s effects and actively shaping aid policies.7 These early academic theories argued that ‘under-development’ was due to ‘gaps’ in countries’ economies: a savings gap that would be overcome by greater investment, and a capacity gap that would be overcome by the importing of Western capital and technical knowledge.8 Consequently, development economists employing Harrod9Domar10 or Solow11 models of economic growth believed that aid could provide the necessary catalyst for growth through the stages of Rostow’s ‘take-off’ model.12 Such a belief lead to donor governments focusing resources on discrete, capital-intensive projects, often dams and roads, in the belief that such an investment would fuel growth.13 But such policies proved to be largely wasteful. The projects produced only “islands of excellence”14 which contributed little towards recipient nations’ development:15 a fact recognised as early as 1969 when the World Bank’s own Pearson Commission reported that such projects had “little impact on....global development objectives.”16 Development economics progressed, but economic growth still failed to materialise from the subsequent ‘Washington Consensus’ policies of the 1980s. The unwavering neo-liberal macroeconomic reforms promoted by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund proved to be ill-suited for developing countries.17 The requirements for fiscal conservatism caused a decrease in education and health funding while rapid and C. Lancaster, Foreign Aid; Diplomacy, Development, Domestic Politics (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2006): 2. P.D. Boone, “Politics and the Effectiveness of Aid,” European Economic Review 40, no.2 (1996): 260. 7 H. Hansen and F.Tarp, “Aid Effectiveness Disputed,” Journal of International Development 12 (2000): 375-398. 8 ActionAid, Real Aid 2: Making Technical Assistance Work (London: ActionAid, 2006): 26. 9 R.F. Harrod, “An Essay in Dynamic Theory,” Economic Journal 49 (1939): 14-33. 10 E.D. Domar, “Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment,” Econometrica 14 (1946): 137-147. 11 R. Solow, “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function,” Review of Economics and Statistics 39 (1957): 312-320. 12 W.W. Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1960). 13 T. Killick, “Policy Autonomy and the History of British Aid to Africa,” Development Policy Review 23, no.6 (2005): 668. 14 R. Young, “New Labour and international development: a research report,” Progress in Development Studies 1, no.3 (2001): 250. 15 A. Hewitt, “British Aid: Policy and Practice,” ODI Review 2 (1978): 54. 16 ActionAid: 31. 17 J. Stiglitz, “The Post Washington Consensus Consensus,” (speech to the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, Sao Paolo, Brazil, August 22, 2005), http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/download/speeches/IFIs/Post_Washington_Consensus_Consensus.p pt. 5 6 6 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 unmitigated financial and trade liberalisation caused domestic industries to suffer.18 The resultant “lost decade” of growth occurred despite large sums of aid being spent, leading to further questioning of its effectiveness, and a subsequent ‘aid fatigue’ setting in amongst Western governments.19 Such experiences were cited by aid-cynics such as Peter Bauer, who has called for Official Development Assistance (ODA) to be “terminated.”20 Aid serves only, he argues, to create corrupt and uncompetitive recipient countries wholly dependent on rich states.21 Despite lacking empirical analysis or data, Bauer’s argument reflects a view that has been asserted by many critics for many decades.22 The criticisms frequently levelled at aid’s effectiveness were largely only political or ideological. However, when, employing a quantitative analysis, Peter Boone23 came to similar conclusions as Bauer, there was a resurgent interest in the question of aid’s effectiveness,24 just as New Labour was coming to power. Studying decades of data for almost 100 developing countries, Boone’s seminal work concluded that aid did not significantly increase a state’s investment or growth rates; nor did it benefit the poorest sections of society. Instead, he argued that, in most cases, aid only increased the size of recipient governments’ consumption rates by around three-quarters of the volume of aid.25 Boone’s empirics supported what had previously only been political scepticism of aid’s effectiveness and, while it was published at the very end of the Conservative government, it appeared to justify the decrease in the aid budget in all eighteen years of its rule.26 Arguably, however, Boone’s results are neither surprising, nor actually disheartening for modern advocates of foreign aid. While Boone’s analysis covered more than thirty years of data, crucially, it ended in 1993.27 As such, the lack of a relationship he found between aid and economic growth is only reflective of a lack of a relationship between old aid and economic growth – aid that was not always attempting to assist development, as shall be discussed in due course. Four years later, and using the same dataset as Boone, World Bank officials Craig Burnside and David Dollar28 came to a conclusion that would have very different implications for the policies of a new government that read it. 18 W. Easterly, “The lost decades: Developing countries’ stagnation in despite of policy reform 1980—1998,” Journal of Economic Growth 6, no.2 (2001): 137-157. 19 J. Simensen, “Writing the History of Development Aid,” Scandinavian Journal of History 32, no.2 (2007): 175. 20 P. Bauer, “Foreign Aid: Mend It or End It?” in Aid and Development in the South Pacific, eds. P. Bauer, S. Siwatibau, and W. Kasper (Australia: Centre for Independent Studies, 1991): 17. 21 Ibid. 22 See for example M. Friedman, Capital and Freedom (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962); S. Djankov, J. Garcia-Montalvo and M. Reynal-Querol, “Does Fair Aid Help,” Cato Journal 26, no.1 (2006): 1-28. 23 P. Boone, “Politics and the Effectiveness of Aid,” European Economic Review 40, no.2 (1996): 289-329. 24 W. Easterly, R. Levine, and D. Roodman, “New Data, New Doubts: A Comment on Burnside and Dollar’s ‘Aid, Policies and Growth’ (2000),” Centre for Global Development Working Papers 26, http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/2764, 26. 25 P. Boone, 314. 26 P. Williams, British Foreign Policy Under New Labour 1997 – 2005 (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005), 17. 27 P. Boone, 289. 28 C. Burnside and D. Dollar, “Aid, Policies, and Growth,” The American Economic Review 90, no.4 (2000): 847-868. 7 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW Burnside and Dollar’s analysis showed that while development generally failed to result from aid, this was not the case in some recipient nations. In those developing countries with good fiscal, monetary and trade policies as well as sound government institutions, aid had a significant, positive impact on development.29 But they found no evidence that aid actually caused recipient countries to adopt the same policies that would have a positive effect on its ability to help development.30 Thus they argued for aid to be made conditional on such reforms. Burnside and Dollar’s “extraordinarily influential”31 (Easterly et al., 2003: 1) paper has subsequently had considerable impact on aid policy worldwide, and gave extra support to the concept of ‘good governance’ in the development field. ‘Good governance’ has been a guiding principle for aid-giving for more than a decade32 and has reflected a change in economic and political thinking since the failure of the structural adjustment policies of the Washington Consensus. While subject to various definitions, one can consider good governance as countries’ dedication to transparent, consultative and democratic forms of government aimed at bettering citizens’ lives.33 Inspired by the growing body of evidence34 that came to a head with Burnside and Dollar, economists and politicians increasingly saw ‘conditionality’ as a way to ensure that aid monies would be ‘better spent’ by recipient nations35 and achieve the development which had failed to materialise in the past. However, the use of such methods is far from uncontroversial. Non-governmental organisations36 and recipient nations themselves37 have been critical of conditionality’s intentions, equating it to a reemergence of Western imperialism. While academics, including Svensson,38 have argued that it actually fails to produce reform because donor inertia means that funds are dispersed even when recipients miss targets and fail conditions. As an attempted softening of such criticism, there has been a growing move by donor countries to embrace ‘partnerships’ in development policy, working more closely alongside recipients to combat poverty together.39 This commitment towards endogenous, domestically-owned development policies has manifested itself in Ibid., 847. Ibid., 847. 31 Easterly et al., 1. 32 M. Doornbos, “Good Governance: The Rise and Decline of a Policy Metaphor?,” Journal of Development Studies 37, no.6 (2001): 93. 33 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, “What Is Good Governance?” About Us, http://www.unescap.org/pdd/prs/ProjectActivities/Ongoing/gg/governance.asp (accessed 18 January 2009). 34 See for reference Easterly and Rebelo, 1993; Easterly and Levine, 1997. 35 Easterly et al., 1. 36 ActionAid. 37 L. Green and D. Curtis, “Bangladesh: partnership of posture in aid for development?,” Public Administration and Development 25, no.5 (2005): 389-398. 38 J. Svensson, “Why conditional aid does not work and what to do about it,” Journal of Development Economics 70, no.2 (2003): 381-402. 39 T. Hattori, “Giving as a Mechanism of Consent: International Aid Organisations and the Ethical Hegemony of Capitalism,” International Relations 17, no.2 (2003): p.160. 29 30 8 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 academic support for direct government budget support by donors, as opposed to the donor-controlled project-based and ‘technical assistance’ aid schemes of old.40 But, the concept of ‘partnerships’ in development has been severely criticised as empty rhetoric, and disguising a continued subjugation of recipients41 that has tainted aid-giving for decades. GIVING AID The rise of good governance and partnerships came at a time of change in the second of the two broad areas of development research: the motivations for donors’ aid-giving. Historically these had been far from purely benevolent selflessness as combinations of commercial, historical and geopolitical ties shaped aid decisions.42 Indeed, Burnside and Dollar’s own empirical study found that bilateral aid had been most influenced by donor interests, rather than recipient countries’ genuine need. 43 For the United Kingdom, aid has traditionally been a remnant of its imperial history, with the overwhelming majority being spent on former colonies44 because of the “special responsibility” that its Overseas Development Ministry45 claimed the country had inherited. The economic and social requirements of less developed countries was clearly secondary to donor’s own political policy. Generations of governments were also committed to using aid as a tool of British economic policy, giving rise to the commercial “tying” of aid, with monies being ‘donated’ on the condition that it was spent on British goods and services which were often more expensive than the competitive world market price.46 The use of tied aid has been criticised heavily by academics, including Oliver Morrissey who claims that it significantly decreases the efficiency of aid47 and is “unlikely to be of a net economic benefit to . . . [developing countries].”48 The use of one form of aid in particular has been subject to vocal criticism. ‘Technical assistance’, defined by the OECD49 as aid concerned with the use of donor’s expert knowledge and research, has been argued to have a disappointing record for assisting Simmensen, 175. G. Crawford, “Partnership or Power? Deconstructing the ‘Partnership for Government Reform’ in Indonesia,” Third World Quarterly 24, no.1 (2003): 139-159; Green and Curtis; D. Slater and M. Bell, “Aid and the Geopolitics of the PostColonial: Critical Reflections on New Labour’s Overseas Development Strategy,” Development and Change 33, no.2 (2002): 335-360. 42 A. Alesina and D. Dollar, “Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?” Journal of Economics 5, no.1 (2000): 33-63. 43 C. Burnside and D.Dollar (2000), 848. 44 J. Tomlinson, “The Commonwealth, the Balance of Payments and the Political of International Poverty: British Aid Policy 1958 – 1971”, Contemporary European History 12, no.4 (2003): 413. 45 Overseas Development Ministry, “What is British Aid?: 67 Questions and Answers,” (London: HMSO, 1967), 3. 46 A. Hewitt, “British Aid: Policy and Practice,” ODI Review 2 (1978): 60. 47 O. Morrissey, “ATP is Dead: Long Live Mixed Credits,” Journal of International Development 10 (1998): 248. 48 O. Morrissey, “An Evaluation of the Economic Effects of the Aid and Trade Provision,” Journal of Development Studies 28, no.1 (1991): 104. 49 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Trade-Related Assistance: What Do Recent Evaluations Tell Us? (OECD: OECD Publishing, 2007). 40 41 9 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW development50. One study concluded technical assistance to have had a negative impact on economic growth,51 while others have claimed it to be rarely demand-driven, but instead driven by donor governments.52 Developmental needs were still explicitly secondary in British aid policy in 1980 when the Minster for Overseas Development, Neil Marten, stated that the government would “give greater weight in the allocation of our aid to political, industrial and commercial objectives alongside our basic development objectives.”53 As such, the Thatcher and Major era of British government saw British aid still dominated by stand-alone projects and a significant proportion remained tied. It was during this administration that the perceived wisdom of development economics evolved once more, as the structural adjustment policies of the Washington Consensus gave way to a focus on poverty reduction as being the most important aim of aid, typified by the 1997 Human Development Report which considered this to be a “moral imperative and a practical quest.”54 THE DEPARTMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT The government that emerged from the 1997 election was one committed to sweeping reform of British policies. The landslide victory of New Labour was won on the back of a campaign that had almost exclusively focused on domestic policies.55 Nevertheless, its manifesto did contain fleeting references to foreign policy and, most pertinent to this study, is the one short paragraph concerning international development. The manifesto mirrored the latest Human Development Report published only weeks earlier, acknowledging the “clear moral responsibility”56 developed countries had to eradicate global poverty. A Labour government would do this, in part, by establishing a new, independent Department for International Development headed by a Cabinet Minister to “attach much higher priority to combating global poverty and underdevelopment”57 and implicitly suggesting that there would be a significant change in the policies pursued. The new department was to have a policy remit that went beyond simply distributing aid but encompassed a broad range of issues including the global environment, world trade, debt sustainability, and encouraging democratic institutions.58 ActionAid. G. Mavrotas and B. Ouattara, “Aid disaggregation and the public sector in aid-recipient economics: Some evidence from Cote D’Ivoire,” Review of Development Economics 10, no.3 (2006): 441. 52 M. Godfrey et al., “Technical Assistance and Capacity Development in an Aid-dependent Economy: The Experience of Cambodia,” World Development 30, no.3 (2002): 355-373. 53 House of Commons, Parliamentary Debates, 20 February 1980 columns 464-465. 54 United Nations, Human Development Report 2006, 106. 55 P. Williams, 16. 56 Labour Party. 57 Ibid. 58 J. Vereker, “Blazing the Trail: Eight Years of Change in Handling International Development,” Development Policy Review 20, no.2 (2002): 135. 50 51 10 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 Within months of the new department’s creation, it had published a “bold”59 White Paper promising significant reform of Britain’s development policy: greater spending on aid policy, an end to tying, and a revised focus on poverty reduction in those countries with the greatest development needs60 – policies identical to those of the current ‘best thinking’ identified earlier in this section. The White Paper also dedicated no fewer than twenty pages to another favoured issue of the development field, by pledging to establish partnerships with those developing countries that were committed to democracy and the eradication of poverty.61 The establishment of DFID and its “bold” White Paper led to an initial flurry of positive writing on the department, receiving praise from academics,62 NGO officials,63 and even muted approval from opposition politicians.64 Yet, there were still those who were not convinced by the new department’s actions. Bill Gould65 remained one such sceptical early voice. While largely positive of the leadership exhibited by the new Secretary of State for International Development, Clare Short, he was unconvinced by the actual change in policies promised in the White Paper, which contained, he argued, “little that is…operationally radical” from the previous eighteen years. 66 However, four years later and with the benefit of seeing DFID working in practise, Slater and Bell came to a different conclusion, suggesting that New Labour’s policies did constitute a significant change from those of the past.67 The new government’s emphasis on the moral basis of aid, as part of its much derided ‘ethical’ foreign policy68 was, they claim,69 a novel approach to development. Yet, at the same time, they suggest that its policies of a focus on poverty reduction was merely an extension of those pursued under Lynda Chalker – the last Conservative minister for international development.70 The lack of quantitative study, however, makes the divergent conclusions of Gould, and Slater and Bell largely unfulfilling. A more recent contribution from Paul Williams71 provides an insightful and detailed background on the aid policies pursued under successive British governments. He, like Slater and Bell, found the moralism attached to development policy by New Labour as 59 R. Young, “New Labour and International Development: a research report,” Progress in Development Studies 1, no.3 (2001): 247. 60 Department for International Development, Eliminating World Poverty: A Challenge for the 21st Century, (London: The Stationery Office): 5. 61 Ibid, 22-41. 62 A. Hewitt and T. Killick, “The 1975 and 1997 White Papers Compared: Enriched Vision, Depleted Policies,” Journal of International Development 10 (1998): 51-67. 63 A. Whaites, “The New UK White Paper on International Development: An NGO Perspective,” Journal of International Development 10 (1998): 203-213. 64 A. Goodlad (1998), “The View from the Opposition Benches,” Journal of International Development 10 (1998): 195201. 65 B. Gould, “New Labour, new international development policy?” Third World Policy Review 20, no.1 (1998): iii-vi. 66 B. Gould, 4. 67 D. Slater and M. Bell, 340. 68 C. Allen, “Britain’s Africa Policy: Ethical or Ignorant?” Review of African Political Economy 77 (1998): 33-63. 69 D. Slater and M. Bell, 341. 70 Ibid. 71 P. Williams. 11 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW the key departure from the past72, arguing that its broad aims and rhetoric are not dissimilar from previous governments’. But, he, like all other authors, is silent about the specific policies and spending decisions pursued and the extent to which they are actually a significant break from the past. Attempting to overcome this shortcoming shall drive the remainder of this paper. HYPOTHESES The preceding examination of the evolution of aid identified several substantive gaps in the existing body of research on British aid policies. Specifically, while there has been a small number of publications reviewing policy over the last ten years, none of these have subjected their assertions or conclusions to statistical testing. Therefore, this paper aims to analyse the specific spending decisions made in the last ten years to more fully answer the question of “how has British aid policy changed under DFID?”. More specifically, four identifiable hypotheses can be identified that would confirm DFID as deserving of its accolades, according to the current “best thinking” on international aid. • • • • H1: the total aid budget under DFID has significantly increased. H2: economic need has become a more significant factor in determining British aid flows since 1997. H3: there has been a shift in British aid spending towards direct budgetary support away from funding projects H4: there has been a move from commercially-tied aid to conditionality based upon political reforms. DATA AND METHODOLOGY For each of the first four distinct hypotheses, the analysis will employ a quasilongitudinal approach, comparing eight annual intervals of British aid policy before and after 1997.73 In order to identify whether the change in government at this critical juncture brought with it a significant change in policy, analysis of variance (ANOVA) models shall be used to compare data before and after the critical juncture of 1997. The key sources of data for the quantitative analysis that is central to this paper were DFID’s own annual publications ‘Statistics on International Development’, a series of requests to the department under the 2000 Freedom of Information Act for figures not previously released before its implementation, and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)’s Development Co-operation Directorate’s data on aid flows. 72 Ibid., 219. 73 The 2005 figures were the most recently available at the time of writing. 12 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 The first variable, total aid budget, was measured simply as the total bilateral aid spending in any one year. Concentrating on bilateral aid ensured that only those funds over which Britain has complete control were investigated, removing those monies that reach recipient countries via multinational organisations. The second hypothesis stated that a greater share of bilateral aid would be spent on countries with greater ‘need’. In order to measure recipients’ development status, the United Nation’s preferred measure, the Human Development Index, was employed as it provides a broader conceptualisation of development than a solely economic measurement such as the average Gross National Income, by incorporating life expectancy and illiteracy rates74. In total, aid receipts for 172 countries were analysed which consisted of all countries defined by the United Nations as low- or middle-income countries at some point between 1990 and 2005 as well as the nineteen other countries that received British aid during this time period. Holding for recipient countries’ population,75 a regression analysis was preformed for each of the annual intervals under study, establishing the extent to which aid receipts from Britain have been dependent on need, and then an ANOVA analysis was used to determine whether this did indeed become a more significant factor under New Labour. In order to investigate the changing composition of Britain’s aid budget under the different governments, the British government’s own categories of aid were used which include ‘direct budget support’, ‘project aid’, ‘technical assistance’, ‘humanitarian aid’, and ‘debt relief’ (categories which fortunately survived the change in government). The relevant proportion of each category in each of the annual budgets shall be analysed, and then an ANOVA analysis performed to identify any significant change in spending priorities since 1997. The fourth hypothesised shift in policy, from economic- to political-conditionality, is more difficult to quantify due to the intricacies of the specific conditions and requirements attached to British aid. Thus, primary sources were relied upon, particularly a report produced by DFID and development consultancy firm Mokoro76 reviewing the changing terms of British aid, and DFID’s own official paper on ‘Rethinking Conditionality’.77 In addition, a small number of interviews were conducted with officials from non-governmental organisations (NGOs) with detailed first-hand United Nations, Human Development Report 2006. Population figures for each of the 16 years were gathered from the relevant United Nations Human Development Report. 76 Department for International Development and Mokoro, DFID Conditionality in development assistance to partner governments (London: The Stationery Office, 2005). 77 Department for International Development and Mokoro, Partnerships for Poverty Reduction: Rethinking Conditionality (London: The Stationery Office, 2005). 74 75 13 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW knowledge about the realities of British aid, which did not necessarily reflect the official government policy.78 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION This section aims to identify the changes in spending and policy decisions that the New Labour government has pursued using the first four hypotheses above. H1: TOTAL SPENDING ON AID The Labour government that swept to power in 1997 did so on a manifesto that had only one fleeting reference to international development. Yet that one paragraph contained a pledge for “a much higher priority”79 to international development: a pledge that has been borne out consistently in the government’s total spending on aid. Britain’s total bilateral aid budget has increased dramatically in the last two decades from a little over £800 million in 1990 to close to £4.5 billion in 200580 as figure 1 above clearly illustrates. Even allowing for the fact that the first two years of DFID’s existence saw no real increases due to Labour’s manifesto pledge to match the previous Conservative government’s spending plans, one can see a significant and sustained increase in total bilateral aid spending under New Labour. 5000 Total bilateral spending (£ million) . (Unadjusted for inflation) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Figure 1: Total bilateral aid spending 1990 – 2005. Colour coded by government – red (Labour) and blue (Conservatives). 78 For reasons of brevity, source data, and the ANOVA tests of significance are not shown in this paper. Any interested readers can contact the author, through the journal, for more details. 79 Labour Party. 80 Department for International Development, Statistics on International Development 2006 (London: The Stationery Office, 2006). 14 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 Data from DFID, Statistics on International Development 2006. However, Figure 1 above also demonstrated that the most dramatic increases in aid spending occurred after 2003. More careful study of DFID’s data reveals that a large proportion of this aid went on post-conflict reconstruction in Afghanistan and Iraq where £1.5 billion of the UK’s Official Development Assistance was spent in 2005.81 Nevertheless, even if one was to exclude these countries, it is clear that the British aid budget under DFID has been expanded considerably, thus confirming hypothesis 1 from the previous section. Yet merely throwing money at the problem of decades of underdevelopment is not sufficient, as the $1.6 trillion82 spent since 1950 makes apparent. A truly effective aid policy, therefore, needs greater attention given to both the recipients and the form of aid. H2: RECIPIENTS OF AID The issue of aid’s recipients was one that Labour’s manifesto mentioned briefly, with a pledge to shift aid resources to helping “the poorest people in the poorest countries.”83 The post-conflict spending in Iraq and Afghanistan – two countries considered middleincome countries by the United Nations84 – questions whether this has been a pledge that DFID has been able to fulfil. An analysis of the spending decisions made, however, shows that there has been a gradual move towards greater spending on the developing countries with the greatest need. Figure 2 below shows that there has been a general trend for more of DFID’s money to be spent on those countries with the lowest HDI scores – those, therefore, that have the greatest “need”. ANOVA analysis confirms that DFID spending has been significantly more focused upon the very poorest developing countries. Department for International Development, Statistics on International Development 2006. Lancaster, 2. 83 Labour Party. 84 United Nations, Human Development Report 2006. 81 82 15 0 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 -0.05 1990 Regression co-efficients for relationship between aid receipts and HDI INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW -0.1 -0.15 -0.2 -0.25 -0.3 -0.35 -0.4 Figure 2: Trend in relationship between aid receipts and HDI status, 1990 – 2005. Colour coded by government – red (Labour) and blue (Conservatives). Data from DFID, Statistics on International Development 2006. The Democratic Republic of Congo, for example – one of the least developed countries in the world – has benefited from a significantly larger investment under DFID, totalling almost £400 million in the last three years under study:85 a dramatic increase from the £9 million it received in the first three years of the 1990s. Under the Conservative government of this period, aid was still concentrated heavily on former British colonies, making up over 71% of the total bilateral budget, in contrast to the 44% in 2005.86 Thus it appears that DFID has genuinely moved away from the perception of aid simply being a tool of a broader foreign policy, to becoming a distinct area of government in itself, with its own goals for which to aim. However, there is still considerable room for a greater commitment on DFID’s behalf to ensure aid is better focused. India, a country that has seen a remarkable economic transformation in the last two decades, still receives extraordinarily large sums of money – in 2005, it was second only to Iraq, receiving a total of £579 million. While India does have an extremely large population, it still receives more than five times more per head than Mali, which is consistently amongst the poorest three nations in the world.87 Guinea-Bissau, a country amongst the world’s least developed, has not received any aid from DFID since 2001, despite its average annual income of $736, and an average life expectancy of 44 years.88 Department for International Development, Statistics on International Development 2006. Author’s calculations from DFID, Statistics on International Development 2006. 87 Author’s calculations from DFID, Statistics on International Development 2006. 88 United Nations, Human Development Report 2006. 85 86 16 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 DFID’s continued ability to concentrate much of its resources on the least developed nations, despite enormous sums being spent in Iraq and Afghanistan presents somewhat of a puzzle. However, closer analysis of DFID’s spending priorities reveal that other ‘middle-income’ countries have seen their aid receipts cut dramatically in order to maintain the department’s development-focus. Pakistan, Peru and South Africa, for example, saw significant decreases in DFID spending in the aftermath of the conflicts from combined receipts of £237 million in the year before Operation Iraqi Freedom to just £136 million in 2005.89 These cuts have occurred despite an explicit recognition by DFID that middle-income countries are vulnerable to falling back to low-income status, as 38 countries have done in the last two decades.90 Nevertheless, these failures should not totally detract from what has been a systematic reform of policy undertaken in the last decade, which now sees British aid more targeted at the very poorest countries in the world – a significant improvement on the decades of policy identified by Alesina and Dollar91 as being primarily driven by historical and geopolitical links. H3: TYPE OF AID The form of Official Development Assistance (ODA) is undoubtedly integral to its ability to promote development, as the ill-fated experiences of early aid’s fixation with capitalintensive projects testifies. DFID’s early publications and reports made no explicit reference to the type of aid that would be pursued, but analysis of its spending decisions finds that there has been a sustained shifting of priorities. The most apparent recent trend in Figure 3 overleaf is the significantly smaller proportion of funds spent on technical assistance by New Labour, from a peak of 62% in the year it came to power, to less than 28% in 2005. This has been a move that will have been welcomed by the non-governmental organisations and development academics who heavily criticised technical assistance, as was noted previously. Interviews with development agency officials (conducted July – August 2007) confirm that DFID’s diminishing spending on this sector is considered an indication of its increasingly progressive nature. Yet the continued existence of a considerable proportion of ODA being spent on technical assistance proves frustrating to many advocates of ‘better’ aid. One NGO official was extremely sceptical about technical assistance even being considered aid, due to its dubious credentials in supporting development and poverty reduction, calling it “phantom aid … whose inclusion in ODA is somewhat…misleading”.92 Author’s calculation from Department for International Development, Statistics on International Development 2006. Department for International Development, Achieving the Millennium Development Goals: The Middle Income Countries – a strategy for DFID 2005 – 2008 (London: The Stationery Office: 2004): 5-6. 91 Alesina and Dollar. 92 Anonymous (NGO official), interview by Alan Webster, August 2007. 89 90 17 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW 70 Percentage of bilateral ODA 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Technical As sistanc e 1995 1996 1997 Budget Support 1998 1999 2000 Emergenc y Aid 2001 2002 Projec ts 2003 2004 2005 Debt Relief Figure 3: Trend in type of bilateral aid, 1990 – 2005. Data from DFID, Statistics on International Development 2006. The continued decrease in the proportion of British aid spent on technical assistance was underlined in 2005 when it was exceeded by the funds spent on direct budget support. Under DFID, budget support almost trebled its share of British aid spending, reaching a high of over 28% in 2005.93 The then Secretary of State for International Development, Clare Short, made her department’s view clear when asserting that “budgetary aid… in the end, is the most effective” for assisting development.94 The new government’s pledge to establishing partnerships with developing countries appears to have been fulfilled, partly confirming hypothesis 2, with more aid provided in a form that leaves its use up to recipient governments, showing DFID’s “real commitment to…[recipient] country ownership…which is really good” as one NGO official put it.95 The proportion of aid spent on projects has seen a slight, but significant increase under DFID, contrary to hypothesis 3. However, the nature of aid projects sponsored by DFID has changed dramatically from the disjointed infrastructure projects identified as being ineffectual for development in the literature review. DFID has increasingly utilised endogenous, demand-driven programmes run by nongovernmental organisations as a means to furthering its broad goal of poverty reduction. Its Partnership Programme Agreement scheme invites proposals from British, as well as recipient countries’, civic society organisations for programmes which they consider to be beneficial for development, which are then assessed against DFID’s own development aims.96 Interviews (conducted July-August 2007) with officials from British-based NGOs See Appendix 2, tables 2 and 8. House of Commons, Parliamentary Debates, May 14 2002 column 130. 95 Anonymous, August 2007. 96 Department for International Development, “Partnership Programme Agreements,” About DFID, 93 94 18 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 confirm that DFID is “easy to work with… and … in no way, [tries] to micro-manage the projects they fund.”97 DFID’s concept of genuine co-operative partnerships has extended, therefore, beyond recipient countries to include other organisations which have a stake in reducing global poverty. Aid classed as humanitarian relief, usually provided in response to a natural emergency, has seen no discernible pattern in the last two decades but has fluctuated considerably year-by-year, which is unsurprising given its nature. As such, ANOVA analysis found no significant difference between policies of the two government. Likewise, there has been no significant difference in the proportion of aid spent on debt relief since 1997. However if the data were to be extended to include the following year’s figures, there would, one would expect, be a significant increase in debt relief due to the accord signed by the UK at the Gleneagles G8 Conference pledging amnesty for the debts of 18 developing countries.98 H4: AID CONDITIONALITY The fourth question concerning DFID’s work raised earlier hypothesised a move from commercially-tied aid to aid conditional on political reform. This too was largely borne out by an examination of the policies pursued by the new department, and interviews with development observers. The first White Paper published by DFID,99 Britain’s first for more than two decades, pledged to outlaw the Aid and Trade Provision, the most obvious vestige of the previous commercial aims of aid, in a move that was almost universally welcomed. The one notable exception was the Confederation of British Industry100 – opposition that, one suspects, was not unappreciated by DFID as indicative of its new focus on poverty reduction. In spite of this, the White Paper retained the option for DFID to use “mixed credits” as long as there was a commitment to poverty reduction. The distinction between ATP and mixed credits was one that academics had perceived to be only nominal.101 However, in 2002, the International Development Bill passed after DFID’s second White Paper102 (2000), made all forms of tied aid illegal, apparently putting an end to the decades-old tradition of British firms’ profits being a factor in aid provision. Nevertheless, interviews with NGO officials provide anecdotal evidence that the realities of DFID programmes may not equate to the legislation passed. One official with a large aid organisation suggested that while there were no explicit commercial links, “habits… http://www.dfid.gov.uk/aboutdfid/DFIDwork/ppas/partnerprogagreements.asp. 97 Anonymous (British-based NGO official), interview by Alan Webster, July 2007. 98 BBC News, “Government defends G8 aid boost,” 9 Jul y, 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4666743.stm. 99 Department for International Development, Eliminating World Poverty: Making Governance Work for the Poor, White Paper on International Development (London: The Stationery Office, 2006). 100 House of Commons, Select Committee on International Development, Parliamentary Debates, 14 May 1998 column 66. 101 Morrissey 1998. 102 Department for International Development, Eliminating World Poverty: Making Globalisation work for the Poor, White Paper on International Development (London: The Stationery Office, 2000). 19 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW informal agreements [between] ex-pats who know each other … and career ambitions” meant that DFID officials overseas usually granted contracts to British firms over local competitors.103 Official figures released by DFID confirmed this, showing that in 2004 and 2005 (the only years for which such data was collected), fewer than 27% of aid contracts awarded by DFID were to firms based in the recipient country.104 While it is possible to argue that recipient countries’ firms may not be able to manage projects whose budgets often run into seven- or eight-figures, DFID was also forced to reveal that in those same two years, only 5% of contracts worth less than £100,000 were even tendered competitively.105 Thus, it appears that the complete commercial untying of British aid that legislation attempted to bring about has yet to be fully implemented ‘on the ground’ in developing countries. The review of the development field’s current thinking posited a move in British policy from commercial to political conditionality, identifying the rise of ‘good governance’ as a recent dominant trend in the development sector. DFID has indeed broadly followed the lessons of good governance’s importance, but has taken a different approach than the asymmetric conditionality conceived by the literature review. A policy paper produced by DFID106 set out the department’s approach on conditionality, stating that it had moved away from specific policy conditions imposed on developing countries to fostering equal partnerships with those recipient countries that share its commitment to poverty reduction. This was a move that only occurred taken under the leadership of Hillary Benn (Secretary of State, October 2003 – July 2007). Before this time, DFID had imposed conditions ensuring “the ‘right sort’ of economic liberalisation”, resembling the policies of the Washington Consensus, according to one NGO official.107 Instead, under Benn, British policy moved to requiring three broad conditions of recipients’ commitment to poverty reduction, open systems of government and respect of citizens’ human rights.108 This was a move welcomed by development organisations who criticised other notions of good governance because “conditionality is still being driven through it” (Interview 2, August 2007). Instead, DFID has embraced a pragmatic approach, stipulating only the outcome desired, namely poverty reduction, and leaving it largely up to recipient countries to determine their own path. As part of DFID’s commitment to establishing genuine partnerships with recipients, Hillary Benn also introduced aid programmes that Anonymous, August 2007. Author’s calculations based on data from Hansard, 28 November, 2005. 105 Author’s calculations based on data from Hansard, 28 November, 2005. 106 Department for International Development, Partnerships for Poverty Reduction: Rethinking Conditionality (London: The Stationery Office, 2005). 107 Anonymous, August 2007. 108 Ibid. 103 104 20 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 were committed to last for at least ten years and stated contractual responsibilities for both recipient and donor (DFID, 2007).109 However, a report commissioned by DFID found that British officials in the field were unclear about the terms of such agreements, which were, it claimed, ambiguous and included specific policy requirements purported to no longer be used by DFID.110 In addition, the report found that there were only two countries where written agreement had been drawn up between DFID’s local offices and recipient governments. Again, DFID’s supposed progressive nature has failed to materialise in its dealings with recipient countries, and it appears that more time is needed for the central department’s message and priorities to be taken up by its staff overseas. The changes identified in this section portray a dramatically different aid policy than that which was inherited by New Labour in 1997. Aid is now systematically targeted towards the least-developed countries in the world; more and more is donated direct to governments able to spent funds in the manner which they find most appropriate, while less is spent on the projects and technical assistance found to have failed in the past. DFID has also set in motion the beginnings of a policy that will see genuine partnerships developed with recipient governments, no longer tainted with overly-prescriptive policy conditions. In short, British aid is now best suited to help improve the lives of the world’s poorest individuals and countries. CONCLUSIONS The issue of international development remains one of the most pressing areas for government action. The fact that more than one billion people live in abject poverty in a world of such wealth ought to shame every developed country’s government into action. However, development policies, and those relating to aid in particular, have generally failed to significantly evolve from those of the past. Despite the fall of the Berlin Wall and continued Western prosperity, many countries still fail to target their aid efforts at the poorest countries and fail to use the most efficient and beneficial aid. One notable exception has been the United Kingdom. Since 1997, the Department for International Development has implemented dramatic changes to Britain’s aid policy. The quantitative analysis performed in an earlier section demonstrated that it has pursued an aid policy that mirrors the current ‘best thinking’ in aid policy identified in previously. British aid has begun to be systematically targeted at the poorest countries, moving away from the geopolitical and colonial influences that, until recently, usurped human needs. It is also increasingly targeted directly at recipient countries’ government, away from the technical assistance so despised by both academics and NGOs. Contrary 109 110 Department for International Development, “Partnership Programme Agreements.” Department for International Development and Mokoro, 5-6. 21 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW to this paper’s hypothesis, DFID has actually increased the proportion of aid being spent on projects, despite the critical voices over their use as a tool for development. However, greater investigation found that DFID’s commitment to establishing partnerships with civil society had broadened to funding projects proposed and managed by NGOs committed to reducing poverty levels. DFID’s emphasis on partnerships went beyond NGOs, extending to recipient countries themselves. Official British policy has abandoned all forms of strict policy conditionality and embraced what appears to be a more equal standing with those developing countries whose governments have committed themselves to the concept of ‘good governance’ now favoured by the field of international development. However, DFID’s progress has not been perfect. The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have had deleterious consequences for aid spending by drawing considerable funds away from middle-income nations that are particularly vulnerable to relapsing into lowincome status. In addition, interviews with NGO officials revealed that policy conditionality and contract-awarding have been slow to reform to official policy, and are not yet truly progressive. This remains an area of deep concern and risks undermining much of DFID’s work and, as such, deserves further research to examine whether official policy has yet been implemented on the ground. 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Wilson, Harold. The First Edwina Mountbatten Memorial Lecture. London: Edwina Mountbatten Papers, 1973. Wilson, Harold. Final Term: The Labour Government 1976 – 1979. London: Weidenfield and Nicolson, 1979. Wilson, Harold. Memoirs 1916 – 1964: the making of a Prime Minister. London: Weidenfield and Nicolson, 1986. Young, Ralph. “New Labour and international development: a research report,” Progress in Development Studies 1, no.3 (2001): 247-253. 28 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 MOTIVATING ALTRUISM: MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES AND CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY Victoria Weininger ABSTRACT This paper argues that the activities of modern multinational enterprise (MNE) are not driven solely by profit maximisation, and that social contemporary norms incentivise additional ethical and sustainable business practices. This work, never before believed to be the responsibility of business, has become an increasingly prevalent business model. The author explores the drivers for US-based MNEs to engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR), and evaluates the extent to which external or social pressures, the need to maintain or improve company profile, and philanthropic reasons contribute to a MNEs decision to engage in CSR activities. The central finding is an apparently strong commercial belief in the existence of a positive relationship between engagement in CSR and a company’s profitability, as well as the mutual reinforcement of concern for company profile and increased social awareness of and pressure for socially responsible behaviour. Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility; MNEs; stakeholders; shareholder profitability; INTRODUCTION There is one and only one social responsibility of business - to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game.112 Welfare and society are not the corporation’s business. Its business is making money, not sweet music…In a free enterprise system, welfare is supposed to be automatic; and where it is not it becomes government’s job.113 The central responsibility of enterprises always was the delivery of products to customers while attaining maximum financial returns for its shareholders. The mandate of business then was rather simple; people wanted plentiful goods at a high quality as 112 Friedman, “The Social Responsibility of Business is to increase its Profits”, The New York Times Magazine, September 13th 1970, p.4 113 Levitt in Sorell & Hendry, Business Ethics, Oxford, Butterworth-Heinemann, 1994, p.33 29 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW cheaply as possible.114 Businesses sought and still seek to make profit, a rational procedure which all citizens, not only businesses, adhere to in daily life. An economist would argue that, in a market of perfect competition, they can do nothing else as any effort directed elsewhere than at profit must be at a cost to the company. Thus in a perfectly competitive market a business which occupies itself with anything other than making profit would eventually be forced out by competitors.115 Nevertheless, we seem to be able to observe a change in the norm, and this paper will question why the responsibilities of business appear to have shifted from maximising the production of goods at the minimum price, to engaging in additional ethical and sustainable business practices at, if necessary, higher costs. There is not yet one universal definition of CSR.116 Carroll and Buchholtz provide the following definition: “Corporate Social Responsibility encompasses the economic, legal, ethical, and philanthropic expectations placed on organizations by society at a given point in time”117. The UNDP definition describes CSR as “a concept whereby companies integrate social and environmental concerns in their business operations and in their interaction with their stakeholders on a voluntary basis” 118. A major discussion has developed around the issue of whether legal duties can be seen as a form of CSR or whether business practices can only be described as ethical if they are voluntary engagements. Indeed, this is the major difference between the two definitions. The core idea of the CSR concept is that the business sector should play a deeper (non-economic) role in society than only producing goods and making profits. This includes society and environmentally driven actions, meaning that the business sector is supposed to go beyond its profit-oriented commercial activities and increase the well-being of the community.119 In an ideal world doing the right thing would give businesses a big enough incentive to overtake these added-on responsibilities, but in real terms following the principle rather than profits can easily lead to economic failure. The US government began correcting the social behaviour of firms as early as in the 1890’s, but the modern understanding of regulation on CSR is particularly linked to the institutionalisation of societal problems in government which began in the 1970’s.120 Only a modest amount of current literature has engaged with US policy and regulation as a reason for companies’ engagement in DeGeorge, Business Ethics, New Jersey, Prentice Hall, 1995, p.13 Baumol in Kitson & Campbell, The Ethical Organisation, Basingstoke, Macmillan Press, 1996 116 The research on company’s individual CSR engagements was greatly impeded through the lack of a universal definition on CSR. Different companies had very different ideas on what corporate responsibility actually comprises especially in relation to legal standards. 117 Carroll and Buchholtz in Henningfeld et al., The ICCA Handbook on CSR, Chichester, John Wiley & Sons, 2006, p.6 118 UNDP, First regional project launched by UNDP to accelerate implementation of CSR in 8 European Countries, UNDP website, 2007, p.1 119 Malovics et al., “The Role of CSR in strong sustainability”, The Journal of Socio-Economics, 2007, p.7 120 Ibid, p.13-14 114 115 30 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 CSR or lack thereof.121 Government can promote or enhance CSR through regulation and control, and government can also exercise the arbiter role by setting minimum standards to help society overcome free-rider problems.122 Another more specific aspect of regulation with an impact on CSR is the US company law, which can differ depending on the state the company is based in. Whereas in some states, company law stipulates that the interests of stockholders of public companies and thus the maximisation of profits take precedence, other states’ legal obligation is to stakeholders.123 The literature does highlight differences, but is yet to engage in a discussion of whether firms are legally allowed to engage in social responsibilities if no positive relationship between CSR and a company’s profitability exists. This paper thus explores whether businesses have in fact become more ethical or if they have turned the new responsibilities to their own profit. It will be argued that companies, if they want to prosper economically and retain their present social power, must fall within the guidelines set by society because “the business of business was, and is, decided by the people of each society.”124 As legal regulation of businesses’ social responsibilities are still relatively low, and considering their varying nature, I shall examine why and if most MNEs have decided to move towards greater social responsibility than that mandatory by law. To engage with the reasons why companies have adopted CSR practices, this research will utilise the existing body of literature to propose seven explanatory independent variables. Each of these will then be reviewed in turn on the basis of 29 questionnaire responses from American Fortune 350 companies. LITERATURE REVIEW Existing research has had little predictive outcome on the reasons why companies engage in CSR as it is difficult to gain an insight into the development and reasoning behind individual business strategies. Although an extensive body of literature is dealing with CSR, concrete and concurrent findings are modest at best and the difficulties associates with quantifying environmental and social value creation. The research closest to this paper is that of Matten (2006), Freeman (1997, 2001), Davis (1973), Burke (1996) and Carroll (1979, 1991, 1996, 2000) who have equally concentrated on the broad reasons why companies engage in CSR. The academic discussion on CSR is mainly caught between two contrasting ideological positions, classical economics and stakeholder theory. Classical economists assume that Such as Kitson & Campbell (1996) and Davis (2005) Bichta C. (2003) “Corporate Social Responsibility: A role in government policy and regulation”, CRI, University of Bath, p.24 123 Kitson & Campbell, Op. cit. 124 De George, Op. cit., p.13 121 122 31 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW all human behaviour, is motivated by self-interest; we are rational economic actors making choices through cold cost-benefit analysis.125 According to theorists like Milton Friedman, MNEs sole purpose lies in the creation of shareholder value and as no congruent link has yet been established between CSR and a firm’s profitability,126 any social engagement is a zero-sum trade-off with a firm’s corporate economic interests. Social programs, they believe, add to business costs which lead socially responsible companies to encounter competitive disadvantages. To Friedman “few trends could so thoroughly undermine the very foundations of our free society, as the acceptance by corporate officials of a social responsibility other than to make as much money for their stockholders as possible.”127 The major impediment of this body of literature is that it fails to acknowledge the effects of change in society’s expectations towards firms’ responsibilities, as well as the possibility of a positive relationship between stockholder value and CSR. Stakeholder theory, however, sees business as an integral part of society with responsibilities beyond those to the stockholders. The theory thus broadens companies duties to “any group or individual who can affect or is affected by the achievement of the organisation’s objectives.”128 It accepts that businesses need to make a profit as the bottom line, but see stockholders as merely one key stakeholder group, whose support has to be sustained in exactly the same way that customer, supplier and employee support must be acquired. It is thus a matter of balancing these interests, not choosing one at the expense of the other.129 The work acknowledges the change in society’s expectations and supposes that if executives ignore the interests of one group of stakeholders systematically over time, that these stakeholders will eventually use the political process to protect their rights by law. Davis and Arlow & Gannon posit that avoidance of further legislation is in fact the main reason why companies engage in CSR, while Goodpaster considers companies’ realisation of the potential of CSR on consumer behaviour equally critical.130 Building on these theories Matten suggests increased employee motivation when working for a responsible company may also be a key driver for forms engaging in CSR.131 Porter’s “value chain” model focusses on the ways in which companies can improve the effectiveness of their CSR activity so that “rather than merely acting on well-intentioned impulses or reacting to outside pressures … [firms] can set an affirmative CSR agenda Trevino & Nelson, Managing Business Ethics, New York, John Wiley & Sons, 2007 Such as Burke et al. (1996), Aupperle, Carroll & Hatfield (1985), Cochran & Wood (1984), Matten in ICCA Handbook (2006), McWilliams & Siegel (2000), Waddock & Graves (1997) and Wright & Ferris (1997) 127 Friedman in Carroll, “A three-dimensional conceptual model of corporate performance”, The Academy of Management Review, Vol.4, No.4, 1979, p.497 128 Freeman & Liedtka, “Stakeholder Capitalism and the value chain”, European Management Journal, Vol.15, No.3, 1997, p.286 129 Zenisek in Wartick and Cochran, “The evolution of the corporate social performance model”, The Academy of Management Review, Vol.10, No.1,1985 130 Goodpaster, “The Concept of CSR”, Journal of Business Ethics, Vol.2, No.1, 1983 131 Matten in Henningfeld et al., The ICCA Handbook on CSR, Chichester, John Wiley & Sons, 2006 125 126 32 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 that produces maximum social benefit as well as gains for the business.”132 The value chain depicts all the activities a firm engages in and suggests that competitive advantage cannot be understood by looking at a firm as a whole but rather that each of the firm’s activities can contribute to a firm’s relative cost position or create potential for differentiation. Looking more broadly, Carroll sees the social responsibility of business encompassing the economic, legal, ethical, and discretionary expectations of society on business. His four stage model illustrates that the motives of businesses are not mutually exclusive and can generally be categorized as primarily one of four. The first and foremost social responsibility of business is of an economic nature, to produce goods and services wanted by society and to sell them at a profit, while the second involves society’s expectation for business to adhere to legal requirements. The third stage concerns ‘ethical responsibilities’ and “although the first two categories embody ethical norms, these are additional behaviours and activities that are not necessarily codified into law but nevertheless are expected of business by society's members.”133 Finally philanthropic activities, which are purely voluntary and guided by a business's desire to engage in CSR which is neither mandated, nor required by law and not even generally expected in an ethical sense. While the model provides a certain structure, it does not clarify what happens if one or more responsibilities are in conflict with one another. Only a modest amount of current literature has engaged with US policy and regulation as a reason for companies’ engagement in CSR or lack thereof.134 Government has a potential role to play towards promoting or enhancing CSR through regulation and control, and government can also exercise the arbiter role by setting minimum standards to help society overcome free-rider problems.135 The US government began correcting the social behaviour of firms as early as in the 1890’s, but the modern understanding of regulation on CSR is particularly linked to the institutionalisation of 132 Porter & Kramer, “Strategy and Society: The link between competitive advantage and CSR”, Harvard Business Review, HBR Spotlight, 2006, p.86 133 Carroll, Op. cit., p.501 33 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW societal problems in government following the increase in public interest in the 1970’s.136 Another more specific aspect of regulation with an impact on CSR is the US company law, which can differ depending on the state the company is based in. Whereas in some states, company law stipulates that the interests of stockholders of public companies and thus the maximisation of profits take precedence, other states’ legal obligation is to stakeholders. 137 Both Davis and Kitson & Campell highlight differences, but do not engage into a discussion of whether managers are legally allowed to engage in social responsibilities, if no positive relationship between CSR and a company’s profitability exists. DATA COLLECTION AND METHODOLOGY The dependent variable used for this research is termed ‘degree of engagement’. All companies that participated in this research were included in the CSR ranking of the Corporate Responsibility Officer (CRO), relying on data collected by KLD Research & Analytics, which rank the best 100 corporate citizens from a list of approximately 1100 US companies every year. From the Fortune 350 companies which were contacted, 29 participated in this research: American Electric Power, Aramark, Bank of New York, Consolidated Edison, Fidelity National, Heinz, Hess Corporation, Lockheed Martin, Procter & Gamble, Sara Lee, Texas Instruments, Travellers, Xerox and 16 companies which preferred to remain anonymous. The dependent variable is measured in an ordinal fashion by classifying the companies engagement in CSR on whether the companies were ranked in the KLD/CRO ‘100 Best Corporate Citizens 2007’ ranking, whether they engage in CSR with or without a stated social mission, and those who have not engaged in CSR activities.138 Companies’ survey responses will then be used to assess the following three broad areas using seven independent variables: Internal Pressures 1) Increase shareholder profitability - attract new shareholders Type 1 2) Augmentation of employee motivation /applications 3) Differentiation of the brand External Pressures 4) Media campaigns or society’s expectations Type 2 5) Group pressures – other MNEs have engaged in CSR 6) Legal governmental liabilities Philanthropy Type 3 7) Increase in stakeholder value 138Three of the companies taking part in this research, Xerox, Heinz and a company which preferred to stay anonymous were ranked as ‘Best Corporate Citizens 2007’. See CRO, 100 Best Corporate Citizens 2007, http://www.thecro.com/files/ 100BestGatefold.pdf 34 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 FINDINGS In order to assess the reasons why many US-based multinational companies engage in CSR, questionnaires were sent to the 350 top Fortune businesses. These companies gross the highest annual profits in the US and were accordingly seen as good examples for ‘functioning businesses’. This relatively large sample size was chosen due to an anticipated low response rate, common to mail surveys. To the best of the researcher’s knowledge, the survey technique had not previously been used to identify the reasons why companies engage in CSR.139 This research is of a qualitative nature, with the incorporation of some descriptive statistics. One significant impediment to the research was the lack of a universal definition of CSR, as well as missing efforts on behalf of some companies to centralize their data on CSR activities. Many firms, seeing the novelty of CSR reporting, were unable to provide concrete data on their spending, especially as involvement is spread over different regions and departments. While CSR is new to some firms, several participants asserted a history being engaged in some form of CSR, though they only started reporting and ameliorating these activities in the last couple of years. This is in line with the reports of the European CSR conference in Finland (2006) which highlighted that CSR can in many cases be seen as a “new label for old wine.”140 INTERNAL PRESSURES SHAREHOLDER PROFITABLITY All businesses listed in the annual Fortune ranking share the US as their host country and are accordingly all subject to American company law. Seeing that company law in the US generally141 gives precedence to the interests of shareholders of public companies, it can be hypothesised that profit maximisation is of highest concern to the majority of these companies.142 Hypothesis 1: The Fortune 350 companies engage in CSR to increase their shareholder profits. 139 The UN has previously used the same method for gathering data on the Global Fortune 500, however with a different scope in research. Other papers generally used content analysis of annual reports. 140 Finnish EU Presidency Conference: CSR policies promoting innovation and competitive-ness, 2006, http://asiakas.poutapilvi.fi/p4lite/files/125/Finnish_EU_ Presidency_Conference_ Final_Report_211206.doc 141 Company law in the US is not standardised and states vary between giving legal primacy to shareholders and stakeholders. The majority of states opted to give precedence to shareholders. 142 Kitson & Campbell, Op. cit. 35 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW Previous studies concerning CSR and a company’s profitability have led to few concurrent results. Some have indicated no relationship143, while Waddock & Grave (1997) observed a positive relationship and again another body of literature144 concluded that there was a negative relationship between the two variables. To gain another perspective, employees in charge of their companies CSR activities were asked to judge the relationship between CSR and a company’s profitability. 28 out of the 29 companies supposed a positive relationship between CSR and a company’s profitability, while only one company judged the relationship to be neutral. Enterprise Heinz explains this by saying: “Simply put, CSR makes good business sense. It helps key audiences view Companies as good citizens and has positive financial impacts i.e. saving money through reducing utility usage or packaging.”145 Most of the companies believed CSR to be profitable both in the long- and in the short term, while seven assumed profitability only in the long term. From the 28 companies assuming a positive relationship, 25 felt able to judge the extent of this relationship. Table 1 shows that 68% of companies believed the relationship between CSR and a company’s profitability to be either high or very high. The only company not engaging in CSR saw that a low relationship existed between CSR and a company’s profitability. Table 1: Degree of Engagement in CSR and the relationship between profit and CSR in percentages Extent of positive relationship: profit/CSR Total Degree of Engagement No social mission and no CSR No social mission but CSR Social mission Best Corporate Citizen 2007 Total Low Average High Very high 4 0 0 0 4 0 12 8 0 20 0 16 36 12 64 0 0 12 0 12 4 28 56 12 100 The employee of the company not engaging in CSR explained their position as follows: “I have yet to see strong evidence that companies that commit great time and resources, especially financial resources, see a payback from many of these efforts… we have yet to see a significant level of willingness on the part of consumers to pay adequately for higher-cost products ... They expect the "socially responsible" company to give that to them for free. That, to us, is a considerable Such as McWilliams & Siegel (2000) and Aupperle, Carroll & Hatfield (1985) Such as Wright & Ferris (1997) 145 Heinz, Response to questionnaire, 2007 143 144 36 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 disconnect between reality and the perceived notion that corporate social responsibility pays dividends.”146 It is surprising to see that this company did not opt for a negative relationship between CSR and a company’s profitability, but instead believed the positive relationship to be low. This example illustrates that engagement in CSR is less likely to occur when companies see no or a very low relationship between CSR and profitability. It may further be assumed that companies will only engage in CSR if it does not lead to additional costs to the business. Hypothesis 2: Companies will not engage in CSR if the engagement results in additional costs to the company. Employees were asked directly whether their company would engage in CSR at temporary financial losses. Of the 19 companies answering this question, 69% stated that they would at times engage in CSR even at temporary financial losses, while 21% stated that this would never be the case. While this could lead us to reject the second hypothesis, it has to be kept in mind that employees are likely to respond in a manner that they believe to be socially desirable. An indication of this could be that only two companies said they would ‘always’ engage in CSR irrespective of temporary financial losses. Profitability is, not surprisingly, an important reason for companies’ engagement in CSR and while it is possible that companies would engage in CSR even with temporary financial losses, the likelihood of this happening seems to be relatively low. There are a growing number of forums and indexes solely concerned with ethical investments, and companies were therefore asked to judge the importance of CSR for potential shareholders. Of the 16 companies which had gathered enough data to answer the question, 69% assumed low or no importance of CSR for potential shareholders. This could lead us to conclude that investors have not yet established a link between CSR and a company’s profitability. AUGMENTATION OF EMPLOYEE MOTIVATION / APPLICANTS Both Davis (2005) and Baron (2007) believe that engagement in CSR can improve the productivity of a firm, as employees are often willing to work harder if their social values are in line with the company’s. CSR, when found on a company’s ‘value chain’, typically suggests that employees are offered safe working conditions, fair wages, job training, health care and other such benefits.147 This leads us to suggest that employees 146 147 Company X, Response to Questionnaires, 2007 Porter & Kramer, Op. cit. 37 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW and prospective job seekers are increasingly paying attention to a company’s social profile. Hypothesis 3: Companies which have a high social engagement are more likely to have a motivated workforce. Hypothesis 4: Applicants are increasingly paying attention to a company’s engagement in CSR when making the decision to apply. The majority of the companies judged their workforce to be more motivated since the business began engaging in CSR, while only 3 companies could not observe any change. Table 2 illustrates that the companies ranked as ‘Best Corporate Citizens’ believed that their workforces’ motivation had improved. In turn, two of the three companies who saw no impact still engage in CSR but have not formulated a social mission. All employees in charge of their firm’s CSR activities believed that a company’s CSR is taken into account by prospective job applicants. From the 26 MNEs who replied to the question, 35% believed applicants consider the company’s CSR activities to some extent, 46% believed applicants to regard the activities highly and the remaining 19% believed the company’s CSR engagement is taken into account very highly by job applicants (see Table 2). The findings therefore suggest a positive relationship between a company’s degree of CSR engagement and the motivation of its workforce. It is also apparent that MNEs are of the opinion that applicants are increasingly aware of a company’s CSR activities when making the decision to apply. Two companies specifically mentioned employee motivation and attracting and retaining employees as drivers for their engagement in CSR activities. DIFFERENTIATION OF THE BRAND By engaging in differentiation strategy, firms seek to be unique in its industry in one or more attributes that are perceived as important by its clientele.148 Participating firms were therefore asked whether they believed CSR to be a way of differentiation. 92% of participating MNEs assumed a link between CSR and differentiation from its competitors. One of the two exceptions was in fact the company not engaging in CSR. The company believed this to be explained by their particular working sector (housing), as clients were not willing to pay additional costs when buying a home. This implies that CSR as a method for differentiation is dependant on the company’s product and the sector, while social engagement is more likely to occur when a company can generate advantages from the commitment. 148 Porter, Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance, New York, Simon & Schuster, 1998 38 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 Table 2: Impact of the degree of engagement on the motivation of the workforce and the applications of employees 1. 2. Since you have engaged in CSR do you believe your workforce to be more motivated? Do you believe that job applicants take into account a company’s CSR when making the decision to apply? Degree of Engagement Motivation of the Workforce/ Impact on Employee Applications Workforce Motivation No Yes Impact on employee applications No A bit Highly Very highly CSR but no dasfvadf Social Mission Social Mission Best Corporate Citizens 2 2 1 19 0 2 0 4 0 0 0 5 10 5 0 0 2 0 It could be inferred, especially in relation to Porter’s ‘value chain’ framework, that CSR as a method for differentiation is strategic and undertaken only when it supports core business activities of a firm. Hypothesis 5: CSR is only strategic, undertaken when it supports the business activities of the firm. All companies rated as ‘Best Corporate Citizens’, and most with a social mission, reported to have depicted the majority of their social activity on their value chain. This suggests some degree of accuracy to this hypothesis. While this form of social engagement surely provides a possibility to enhance long-term business practices and outputs, the actual process of successful differentiation is only given if potential customers are fully aware of the company’s CSR activities. To evaluate the potential client’s knowledge, companies were asked to firstly provide the researcher with their method of engagement and secondly to judge their client’s awareness of their social activities. As demonstrated in Graph 1, firms were proportionally more likely to judge their customer’s knowledge as high when CSR was not supporting daily business activities and thus was not depicted on the value chain (VC) but instead was directed towards other activities such as donations to charities. While most companies carried out the bulk of their CSR activity within the production process, a method which seems strategic due to both the enhancement of business practices and long-term commitment, the findings suggest that outside activities such as donations have a higher influence on consumer awareness. If these initial findings were to be proven correct by further investigations, the value of Porter’s model as a method for engaging in strategic CSR could be highly diminished and companies could be confronted with a need to re-evaluate their business strategies. The method of engagement aside, companies’ replies have shown that CSR has become a successful tool for differentiation, while the extent of its value can depend on the sector the company engages in. 39 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW Graph 1: Depiction on value chain (VC) and consumer awareness 12 10 10 8 6 6 4 4 2 1 4 2 0 No VC- no consumer awarenes s No VC- a bit cons umer awarenes s No VC- high cons umer awarenes s VC- no cons umer awarenes s VC- a bit consumer awareness VC- high cons umer awareness EXTERNAL PRESSURES MEDIA CAMPAIGNS AND CONSUMER LOBBYING The high-profile collapses of large MNEs such as Enron, WorldCom and Tyco have increased public awareness of companies’ behaviour.149 Further examples, such as Nike and Shell, have highlighted that external agencies are increasingly holding companies accountable for their social and environmental actions. These new demands are not merely claims of a marginal group which is prone to disappear quickly; CSR has become an issue of great public interest worldwide. This is highlighted by a remark from Consolidated Edison: “I believe it is hard for any business not to be engaged in CSR activities … especially if they want to do business globally, it is now an expected practice.”150 Companies are increasingly aware of the risks of ‘unethical’ business conduct but often face issues of ethical relativism in their day to day business life. This means that corporations are frequently hesitant to use domestic values as a guide to what is right or wrong. Firms have become cautious in buying products at the best price possible, as companies which do not adhere to domestic ethical expectations often face extensive financial losses through consumer boycotts. Della Costa estimates that the yearly losses to corporations due to unethical practices “equal more than the profits of the top forty corporations in North America.”151 Porter & Kramer, Op.cit. Consolidated Edison, Response to questionnaire, 2007 151 Della Costa in Carroll, “Ethical challenges for business in the new millennium”, Business Ethics Quarterly, Vol.10, No.1 , 2000, p.5 149 150 40 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 The power of public opinion was shown when Mc Donald’s in 1990 changed their packaging methods from polystyrene claims to coated paperboards after public lobbying campaigns, despite being aware that there was no basis for claiming that using paper products was environmentally superior to using polystyrene materials.152 This example illustrates the growing demand for companies to act ‘socially responsibly’, but equally questions the extent to which companies should satisfy all demands of society. From the companies participating in this research, only three companies said to have had no media coverage on their CSR engagement. While only 12 businesses felt able to judge whether the media coverage had an impact on their CSR activity, the ratio of companies (10/12) assuming an impact was high. Many companies participating in this research specifically mentioned growing consumer demands as a major reason for engaging in CSR. One business highlighted the “improved disclosure to society in areas other than the traditional financial measures” as their major reason for engagement, while Aramark and Sara Lee specifically mentioned the need to connect with their clients CSR requirements and pressures. Consumer lobbying and media campaigns thus seem to have a major impact when companies decide whether or not to engage in CSR. GROUP PRESSURES This research suggests that companies are bound in their capacity for choice and often decide to follow CSR trends simply to avoid drawing negative attention to their company. While it is difficult to prove a relationship between group pressures and companies’ engagement in CSR, there are some indicators suggesting possible affiliation between the two variables. Society is evidently more sensitive to negative than to positive CSR information which heightens societal pressures on companies with low or no social engagement.153 It is argued that as more companies engage in CSR, societal pressures on other companies will become stronger, which will eventually lead them to follow the trend to avoid strategic disadvantages. As can be seen in Table 3, 66% of the companies taking part in this research believed that the majority of their competitors equally engaged in CSR. This could lead us to assume that once several companies in a business sector have started engaging in CSR, others are likely to follow. Indeed the only company not engaging in CSR also believed that none of its competitors engaged in CSR. De George, Op.cit. Sen & Bhattacharya, “Does doing good always lead to doing better?”, Journal of marketing research, Vol. 38, No.2, 2001 152 153 41 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW Table 3: Degree of engagement and the amount of competitors engaging in CSR Amount of competitors engaging in CSR Degree of Engagement No social mission - no CSR None Only some Majority Total 1 0 0 1 No social mission but CSR 0 2 3 5 Social mission 1 5 14 20 Best Corporate Citizens Total 0 1 2 3 2 8 19 29 A further indicator for group pressures is that 67% of the companies providing information on the time of their competitors’ engagement believed to have personally engaged in CSR around the same time. 62.5% of companies further believed to be at an equal level with their competitors’’ CSR activities, which does not suggest a will for differentiation but the desire to avoid attention. Additionally Sara Lee specifically mentioned peer pressures as one of their reasons for engagement. LEGAL GOVERNMENTAL LIABILITIES McWilliams and Siegel (2001) as well as Davis (1973) agree that in order to classify as CSR social business practices have to be of a voluntary nature and thus begin where legislation ends. According to Davis, “a firm is not being socially responsible if it merely complies with the minimum requirements of the law, because this is what any good citizen would do.”154 While this view is widely accepted, the question whether legal expectations should in fact be seen as a form of CSR is still ongoing. This factor has also become observable at various points during this research. In fact one of the 29 companies participating in this research named changes in legal requirements as the main reason for the evolution of its CSR activity. Therefore the lack of a universally accepted definition on CSR is seen, especially in this context, as a potenial impediment to successful research as findings can easily be distorted. Disparate understandings of the nature and scope of CSR was also noticeable when the employees responsible for their companies CSR activities were confronted on whether the company was subjected to any legal governmental standards on CSR. From the 29 US based MNEs only 12 (41%) companies reported to engage in countries with existing legal governmental standards. While it is true that there is no legally binding international framework on corporate liability and that many frameworks developed by government, the UN and the OECD such as the Global Compact, the Rio declaration on environment and development and the OECD guidelines for MNEs, the US government, has introduced a number of minimum legal standards. 154 Davis, 1973, Op. cit., p.2 42 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 Subsequently the 12 companies were asked to assess existing legislation. All companies, except for one, Hess Corporation, believed legislation to be sufficient. When asked to judge their company’s engagement in relation to existing legislation only four companies considered their social engagements to be always higher than those foreseen by government, while the remainder believed this to be only sometimes the case. This paper suggests that companies might engage in CSR so that costly legislation on CSR will not be deemed necessary. Additionaly, once companies have to comply to social legislation, their engagements are no longer seen as philantropic, additional and voluntary. Companies were equally asked to state whether they believed it to be the governments or the companies’ duty to act in order to sustain the environment. While most companies thought that both government and company should play a role, it was observable that the company not engaging in CSR was alone to presume sole government responsibility and that those companies with a high dependent variable generally presumed a greater duty of the firm. PHILANTROPHY STAKEHOLDER VALUE As mentioned earlier, most US Companies work for their shareholders (seeing that they are the owners of the corporation). Yet most individual investors have little if any control over the companies’ activities. Most public firms nowadays are primarily “owned by small investors, often through the intermediary of institutional investors who manage their funds.”155 It therefore seems improbable that companies solely work in the interests of their shareholders as long as they provide reasonable profits. Some companies might decide to engage in philanthropic engagements for the triple advantage of giving something back to society, the satisfaction of observing positive results as well as the advantages from independent variables already discussed. To provide clarification, companies were asked whether their primary responsibility was directed towards their shareholders or stakeholders. The majority believed both to be equally important and could not place one above the other. It was surprising however that those listed as ‘Best Corporate Citizens’ generally believed their shareholders to be more important, whereas the companies without a social mission commonly directed their efforts towards their stakeholders. This could be explained by the earlier observation, that companies with a high value on the dependent variable generally direct their CSR engagement towards their daily business activities, which is of value to society as well as the production-process of the firm. 155 De George, Op. cit., p.327 43 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW CONCLUSION It is evident that by engaging in a topic concerned with internal managerial business strategies, it is often difficult to gain sufficient information on company’s motivations to be able to understand why firms engage in certain activities and not others. To advance previous studies this research programme directly contacted the US-based Fortune 350 companies and invited them to provide information on their reasons for social engagement. While the findings are assumed to have advanced previous studies, the possibility for bias could never be excluded. It is only natural that employees are trying to portray the activities of their company in a socially desirable way, while trying to conceal any negative information. The seven independent variables used in this research have been treated separately for reasons of structure and clarity, but are in fact strongly interlinked. The findings have shown that companies believe there to be a positive relationship between CSR and a company’s profitability, which is especially interesting as no congruent findings have been found between these two variables in existing research. While it has been shown that some companies might engage in CSR even at financial losses, companies will generally only commence engagement if they see a strong business case for it. CSR may therefore provide firms with the triple advantage of doing something good for society, improving their social image as well as increasing profits. The findings further suggest that CSR is a valuable tool for differentiation in a competitive market, although consumer recognition does not necessarily refelect the ‘good’ that the activity produces. Consumers generally tend to have only partial knowledge of a company’s CSR activities, the results seem to suggest that for successful differentiation outside activities, such as donations to popular causes, gain greater recognition for the company than social engagements that enhance business processes. While the latter approach surely seems more valuable in the long-term, companies must individually evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches. Heightened interest of society and media in CSR may also have led to engagement in responsible business practices as a method for avoiding negative media attention. Companies operating in more visible, competitive markets are thus influenced by their competitor’s CSR activities, when deciding on the extent of engagement, in order to avoid harmful media campaigns and consumer boycotts. The findings finally suggest that companies have increasingly realised that if they want to achieve long-term success they have to update their corporate behaviour to a level that is consistent with the prevailing norms, values, and expectations of society. They would therefore seek to find a balance between their social, environmental as well economic and profit-orientated responsibilities. 44 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 REFERENCES Books: Certo S.C. Modern Management. 7th edition. Prentice Hall: New Jersey, 1997. Davies P.W.F. Current Issues in Business Ethics. Routledge: London, 1997. De George R.T Business Ethics. 4th Edition. Prentice Hall: New Jersey, 1995. Hennigfeld, J., M. Pohl and N. Tolhurst, The ICCA Handbook on Corporate Social Responsibility. John Wiley & Sons: Chichester, 2006. Kitson, A. and R. Campbell. The Ethical Organisation: Ethical Theory and Corporate Behaviour. Macmillan Press: Basingstoke, 1996. Lesourd, J.B. and S.G.M. Schilizzi. The Environment in Corporate Management: New Directions and Economic Insights. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, 2001. Mullerat, R. Corporate Social Responsibility: The Corporate Governance of the 21st Century. Kluwer Law International: The Hague, 2005. Porter, M. 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By comparing the power-sharing mechanisms created by both the Northern Irish and Sri Lankan governments in recent years, the author argues that the institutional devices created under the Belfast Agreement are paving the way for the successful transformation of a deep-seated conflict in Northern Ireland because of their adherence to the principles of consociationalist theory. In contrast, the Sri Lankan government have not been able to achieve their intended goals primarily because the essence and spirit of power-sharing have been largely ignored by the country’s policymakers. Consequently, the author argues that Sri Lankan policymakers should put forward an alternative choice based on the Draft Constitution of 1997 as a solution to the current shortcomings in governance—one which incorporates elements of consociationalism and federalism, creating a consensual decision-making process and genuine autonomy for ethnic groups over issues directly relevant to themselves. Keywords: Conflict Resolution; Consociationalism; Northern Ireland; Sri Lanka INTRODUCTION As the armed conflict in Sri Lanka snakes its way into its twenty-fifth year, the All Party Representative Committee tasked by the Government of Sri Lanka to formulate powersharing proposals is due to visit Northern Ireland to learn from the much acclaimed power-sharing arrangement there. Among the key questions the Sri Lankan delegation will seek answers for are: (a) what institutional factors lead to the successful process of conflict transformation in Northern Ireland, and (b) what policy lessons can Sri Lanka draw from Northern Ireland? In this paper, I examine the pertinent experiences of these two deeply divided democratic societies, and present answers to the above-mentioned questions by considering the themes of consociationalism – of which power-sharing is a key 47 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW component. In presenting my argument, I evaluate the key institution created by the Belfast Agreement of 1998, namely the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive, as well as two efforts at power-sharing in Sri Lanka through the establishment of Provincial Councils under the Indo-Lanka Peace Accords of 1987 and the proposed Draft Constitution of 1997. I argue that one of the primary reasons for the failure of power-sharing efforts in Sri Lanka is because principles of consociationalism have not been adequately invoked. Although not all the favourable conditions for full-blown consociationalism to work holds true for Sri Lanka, its key principles of executive power-sharing and group autonomy can still be used to mitigate ethnic violence and restore stability. Addressing the genuine aspirations of marginalised ethnic groups, and giving them adequate power to determine their destinies by incorporating important elements of consociationalism would help charter ethnic relations in Sri Lanka toward more placid waters. Why Consociationalism? Leaving aside the Northern Irish experience, one needs to answer preliminarily why consociational approaches have the potential of managing identity driven conflicts. Consociationalism is widely regarded as a viable solution for stabilising societies that are divided along ethnic, religious or sectarian lines. As Lijphart,156 the foremost consociational theorist, avers “...consociational democracy is not only the most optimal form of democracy for deeply divided societies but also, for the most deeply divided countries, the only feasible solution.” A consociation is “an association of communities”157 and it is generally the result of bargains between leaders of conflicting ethnic or religious groups. According to McGarry and O’Leary,158, consociational theory “is one of the most influential theories in comparative political science. Its key contention is that divided territories, be they regions or states, with historically antagonistic ethnically, religiously, or linguistically divided peoples, are effectively, prudently, and sometimes optimally governed according to consociational principles.” This approach, however, has been criticised for its centrifugal tendencies. As Horowitz suggests,159 consociational practice – in contrast to consociational theory – has provided groups with explicit recognition and made their representatives the bearers of 156 A. Lijphart, “The Wave of Power-Sharing Democracy,” in A. Reynolds, ed., The Architecture of Democracy: Constitutional Design, Conflict Management, and Democracy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002). 157 B. O’Leary,“The Belfast Agreement and the British-Irish Agreement: Consociation, Confederal Institutions, a Federacy, and a Peace Process,” in A. Reynolds, ed., The Architecture of Democracy: Constitutional Design, Conflict Management, and Democracy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002), p. 295. 158 J. McGarry and B. O’Leary, The Northern Ireland Conflict: Consociational Engagements, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004), p.1. 159 D. Horowitz, “Explaining the Northern Ireland Agreement: The Sources of an Unlikely Constitutional Consensus,” British Journal of Political Science 32, (2002): 193-220. 48 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 group guarantees. In addition, scholars like Chandra160 point out that the politicisation of ethnic differences is considered a major threat to democratic stability, and this concern is not completely unfounded. But for those working within the consociational prism, ethnic cleavages are an inescapable reality, and therefore it is only prudent to design the system of government and public policy to deal with that reality161. Moreover, consociational mechanisms can facilitate cooperation and compromise among political elites in states that have deep ethnic, religious, cultural or linguistic cleavages by maximising the number of winners in the system – thereby promoting peaceful coexistence.162 As Vivien Hart163 aptly reminds us, “The issues of recent conflicts are concerned with the recognition of identities as well as with provisions for the legitimate exercise of power.” What becomes crucial to bear in mind is that ethnic violence is the result of (real or perceived) historical injustices and marginalisation of communities. It is the group identity that acts as the mobilising trigger, not individual identity. In reality, traditional majoritarian democracies propel a winner-takes-all system and ethnic minorities are usually excluded from political power. As a result, conflicts involving minorities are easily channelled into extra-parliamentary and violent forms. Although certain liberal thinkers such as Horowitz164 and Barry165 reject the idea of giving ethnic groups a permanent political identity or constitutional status, it is becoming increasingly clear that minority rights cannot be subsumed under the category of human rights166. Where friction is fuelled by decades of mistrust and violence is used as a vehicle to attain group goals, it is practically inconceivable to address those grievances without politically recognising groups. Hence, the risk of furthering ethnic consciousness is a less costly alternative to continued armed hostilities. Indeed, “attempting to erase ethnic cleavages will not simply make them go away. Rather, successful state structures must acknowledge and address their divided house dilemmas.”167. And as the case of Northern Ireland would attest, consociational structures are capable of fostering cross-community cooperation. Equally, it is probable that in the long-run if institutional guarantees are able to make K. Chandra, Why Ethnic Parties Succeed: Patronage and Ethnic Head Counts in India, (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004). 161 J. Uyangoda, “Ethnic Conflict, Ethnic Imagination and Democratic Alternatives for Sri Lanka,” Futures 37, no 9 (2005): 973. 162 P. Norris, “Ballots Not Bullets: Testing Consociational Theories of Ethnic Conflict, Electoral Systems, and Democratization,” in A. Reynolds, ed., The Architecture of Democracy: Constitutional Design, Conflict Management, and Democracy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002), p. 207. 163 V. Hart, “Constitution-making and the Transformation of Conflict,” Peace and Change 26, no. 2 (2001): 153-176. 164 D. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985). 165 B.Barry, Culture and Equality, (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2001). 166 W. Kymlicka, Multicultural Citizenship, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995). 167 S. Stroschein, “What Belgium Can Teach Bosnia: The Uses of Autonomy in ‘Divided House’ States,” Journal on Ethnopolitics and Minority Issues in Europe 3, (2003). 160 49 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW groups - minority groups in particular - feel less insecure about their societal status, centrifugal tendencies will give way to the more desirable centripetal forces. Theoretical Aspects of Consociationalism The two primary characteristics of consociationalism as propounded by Lijphart168, namely, (1) sharing of executive power, and (2) group autonomy, have been accepted broadly as the key ingredients for successful democracy in divided societies. To strengthen power-sharing and group autonomy, Lijphart169 recommends two additional ingredients: (3) proportionality and (4) mutual veto. Some attention will be paid in this paper to the two supplementary elements of consociationalism but greater emphasis will be placed on the primary elements. Lijphart also goes on to list as many as fourteen different favourable conditions, but only four of them are present in all the overviews170. These four are variations of: distinct lines of cleavage among segments of the community, a balance of power among the sub-groups, external threats to a country’s existence and small size, since small states are usually more manageable than large ones171. Power-sharing The central theme in power-sharing is that two or more ethnic groups jointly rule the common polity and make decisions by consensus. In such a set-up, all groups are ensured access to political power on the basis of informal or formal rules172. As Lijphart173 puts it, “power-sharing means the participation of the representatives of all significant groups in political decision-making, especially at the executive level.” To elaborate, power-sharing encompasses: “constitutional norms calling for the inclusion of minority parties and major ethnic and religious groups in the legislature, government, and administrative positions of the country, as well as to the laws or constitutional arrangements providing for territorial or functional decentralisation or electoral systems.”174 Group Autonomy Autonomy or ‘self-rule’ is defined as “the granting of internal self-government to a region or group of persons, thus recognising a partial independence from the influence Lijphart (2002), p. 38 Ibid. 170 M. Bogaards,“The Favourable Factors for Consociational Democracy: A Review,” European Journal of Political Research 33, no. 4 (1998): 475-496. 171 Ibid, p. 478 172 U. Schnekener, “Making Power-Sharing Work: Lessons from Successes and Failures in Ethnic Conflict Regulation,” Journal of Peace Research 39, no. 2 (2002): 203. 173 Lijphart (2002), p. 39 174 D. Rothchild, “Settlement Terms and Postagreement Stability,” in S.J. Stedman, Rothchild, D. and Cousens, E. M., eds., Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements, (Boulder: Lynn Rienner Publishers, 2002), p.121. 168 169 50 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 of national or central government.”175 As defined by Lijphart, “...group autonomy means that these groups have authority to run their own internal affairs, especially in the areas of education and culture.”176. Gurr177, on the basis of a global empirical study, confirms that autonomy agreements can be an effective means for managing regional conflicts. He concludes that there is nothing inherently destabilising about autonomy as alleged by critics. Northern Ireland and Sri Lanka A plethora of geographical, cultural, and economic factors set Sri Lanka apart from Northern Ireland. Her strategic location in the Indian Ocean, population of 20.1 million,178 65,610 square kilometres of land mass179 are but a few of the many respects in which Sri Lanka differs from Northern Ireland, a constituent country of her former colonial ruler. Comparatively, Sri Lanka’s population is more than 10 times the size of Northern Ireland, and is five times larger in land area180. Despite differences, there are many parallels between the two situations which make a comparative study meaningful. Politically, they are electoral democracies which have witnessed extreme polarisation leading to violent, identity-driven conflict. Both conflicts have their roots in socio-economic discrimination based on ethnic, religious and historical differences. Crucially, in both situations, the monopoly of power in the hands of one group formed the basis of the conflict. The conflict in Northern Ireland is between the Unionists or Loyalists, comprised mainly of the Protestant majority who have sought to preserve the union with Great Britain, and the Nationalists or Republicans, comprised mainly of the Catholic minority who have traditionally wanted to unify the island of Ireland. For much of the twentieth century, the Catholics accounted for one third of the total population181, and they currently represent 43.76 percent182. After the British Government’s partitioning of the six counties of the North - which had built-in Protestant majorities - from the rest of Ireland in 1921, tensions between the two groups grew intense. H.J. Heintze, “On the Legal Understanding of Autonomy” in M. Suksi, ed., Autonomy: Applications and Implication, (Cambridge: Kluwer Law International, 1998), p. 7. 176 A. Lijphart, “Multiethnic Democracy” in S. M. Lipset, et al., eds., The Encyclopedia of Democracy, (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly, 1995), p.856. 177 T.R. Gurr, Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts, (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1993), pp. 300-301. 178 United Nations Population Fund (2007) “World Population Datasheet: Sri Lanka” Population Reference Bureau, http://www.prb.org/Countries/srilanka.asp 179 Encyclopaedia Britannica (2007) “Sri Lanka,” World Data, http://www.britannica.com/nations/Sri-Lanka. 180 K. Howells, British Foreign Office Minister, “Statement on Sri Lanka”, House of Commons Hansard Debates, 02 May, 2007, Column 1551, http://www.publications.parliament.uk/ 181 J. Darby, “Conflict in Northern Ireland: A Background Essay,” in S. Dunn, ed., Facets of the Conflict in Northern Ireland, (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1995), p.19. 182 Northern Ireland Office UK (2007) “The Agreement,” http://www.nio.gov.uk/theagreement. 175 51 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW Since then, a number of factors including political and economic discrimination against the Catholics (denied by some Unionists even today), the population balance between the two religious communities, the launch of the Civil Rights Movement by the Catholics, and the rise of a violent campaign against British rule lead to the ‘Troubles’ which commenced in 1960 and led to some of the most horrific events in Irish history.183 In Sri Lanka, political disagreements between the Sinhala-speaking, largely Buddhist majority and the Tamil-speaking, largely Hindu minority surfaced after the island gained independence from British-colonial rule in 1948. According to the last islandwide census conducted in 1981, Sinhalese made-up 74 percent of the population while Tamils accounted for 18 percent.184 During the post-independence era, the Sinhalese who resented what they saw as British-favouritism towards the Tamils during their rule, disenfranchised Tamil migrants who had been brought by the colonial rulers to work in the tea and rubber plantations, made Sinhala the sole official language of the country, and promulgated a new Constitution which accorded Buddhism the foremost position among the country’s religions. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), whose key goal is to establish a separate state for Tamils in the North-East, was born in this context. Following the LTTE’s ambush of thirteen soldiers in the North of the country in 1983, ethnic pogroms targeting the Tamils in the country’s South resulted in the deaths of at least 1,000 Tamils and caused severe destruction of their property.185 It was this episode which sparked the civil conflict that has claimed as many as 70,000 lives and displaced 200,000 persons.186 Northern Ireland has been able to successfully design a political and constitutional agreement for power-sharing. Although it took eight years for its full implementation, the Northern Irish Agreement is laying the foundation for a more inclusive and stable society. Sri Lanka, however, has so far merely unsuccessfully flirted with the concept of power-sharing and a political arrangement to contend with the country’s ethnic divisions appears to be a distant dream. These factors make a comparison worthwhile and it is the Northern Irish success that ignites a curiosity as to whether Sri Lanka’s solutions also lie in consociational approaches. Evaluating Northern Ireland’s Power-sharing Arrangement The Northern Ireland Act of 1998 established a single-chamber Assembly and Executive with full legislative powers and executive competence for economic development, Darby, pp. 18-23 Department of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka (1981) “Census of Population and Housing,” http://www.statistics.gov.lk. 185 International Crisis Group (2008) “Conflict History: Sri Lanka,” http://www.crisisgroup.org 186 Ibid. 183 184 52 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 education, health and social services, agriculture, environment and finance. While a substantial degree of autonomy was devolved to Northern Ireland, Westminster continues to retain control of policy areas such as defence, taxation, immigration and the monarchy. What makes Northern Ireland a consociational democracy is (a) its permanent grand coalition vis-á-vis the power-sharing Assembly and Executive; (b) the considerable degree of autonomy particularly in the areas of education and culture enjoyed by the two main ethno-national groups187; (c) the extensive use of evidence of proportional representation; and (d) the introduction of the principle of mutual consent. All the main parties in Northern Ireland are – in effect – members of a permanent coalition government where decisions are taken on a joint basis. The cross-community executive power-sharing is manifested in the election of First Minister and Deputy First Minister on a joint ticket by the Assembly, with the mandate of presiding over the grand coalition of the ten-member executive Council of Ministers. To facilitate crosscommunity decision-making, elected members are required to declare themselves ‘nationalist’, ‘unionist’ or ‘other’. The concept of group autonomy can be seen in the explicit recognition of the political identities of unionists, nationalists, and others as well the decision to leave alone the existing forms of the equally-funded Catholic and Protestant schools. Norms of proportionality are evident in the electoral system used to elect the Assembly188; the procedure used to determine the composition of the Cabinet; the procedure used to allocate assembly members to Committees with powers of oversight and legislative initiative189; and the existing and additional legislative provisions to ensure fair and representative employment, throughout the public sector, and including the police service.190 To strengthen the power-sharing mechanism, a powerful minority veto has been imposed in order to ensure that decisions on issues of concern to both communities are taken only with broad consent of representatives of the two communities. This refers to the doctrine of parallel consent: a majority of unionist and loyalist representatives have to vote in favour of the proposed legislation. This requires a weighted majority where 60 percent of all members have to vote, including at least 40 percent of each of the delegations. A degree of cultural autonomy in education and language has existed even prior to 1998. For example, Catholic schools have been subsidised by the British Government to the same level as Protestant schools since 1992. 188 The system used in Northern Ireland is called the Single Transferable Vote. Every voter has only one vote, but they can ask for it to be transferred from one candidate to another to make sure it is not wasted. This is done by numbering the candidates 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and so on instead of just putting an “X” against one of them - Electoral Office for Northern Ireland (2006), PR/STV Voting System, http://www.eoni.org.uk. 189 Northern Ireland uses the D’Hondt system, also known as the highest average method. Under this system, seats are won singly and successively on the basis of the highest average – Northern Ireland Assembly (2007), Allocation of seats in the Assembly Executive and Chairs and Deputy Chairs of Committees, http://www.niassembly.gov.uk. 190 O’Leary, p. 55. 187 53 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW What the above implies is that a cross-community consensus is required for agreement on issues related to both communities. So evidently, the agreement is abundant with group guarantees as propounded by consociational theorists. It also becomes apparent that the arrangement has been designed to ensure that politicians engage in a continuing balancing process on issues of concern. In this context, McGarry and O’Leary’s191 assertion becomes centrally valid: “What makes consociations feasible and work is joint consent across the significant communities, with the emphasis on jointness.” Furthermore, Northern Ireland features the conditions that are favourable for consociational structures to work: distinct lines of cleavage (sharp divisions between the two main communities, balance of power (Protestants who comprise much of the unionist population at 53.24 percent, and Catholics who make-up most of the nationalist population at 43.76 percent), external threats (scare tactic whereby Great Britain and Ireland threatened Northern Ireland with partition), and small size (5,456 square miles). Due to the mutually acceptable political arrangement currently in place, Northern Ireland is overcoming its volatile past and emerging as a stable society. Some of the figures speak volumes about the progress made: 102 cross-border roads closed by the army during the Troubles have reopened; 32 security bases have been closed; and 3,500 troops have left since the peace process began bringing troop levels to the lowest level since 1970.192 Among the many economic dividends are the creation of 31,000 new jobs since the signing of the Belfast Agreement and the present unemployment level of 3.8 percent, a historically low level.193 Consociational theory was first applied to Northern Ireland by Lijphart himself in 1975. Although consociational thinking was implicit in the Sunningdale Agreement of 1973, Lijphart was unconvinced about the prospects for consociational democracy and the key problem in his view was the absence of support for it among Protestants. Northern Ireland had a majority that was “capable of exercising hegemonic power” and was normatively attracted to the Westminster majoritarian tradition of democracy. Democracy by consensus was deemed unacceptable. Sri Lanka, today, is where Northern Ireland was then. The Sri Lankan Power-Sharing Experience In the last few decades, the Sri Lankan government has tried several approaches to resolve the ethnic conflict but these measures were either too little or too late. The most McGarry, J. and O’Leary, p. 15. R.N. Haass,“The Northern Ireland Peace Process: Remarks to the National Committee on American Foreign Policy”, US Department of State, New York, 07 January, 2002. 193 Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment, Northern Ireland (2007) “Unemployment in Northern Ireland Remains Low,” Statistics and Economics Research Branch, 14 November, http://www.detini.gov.uk. 191 192 54 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 salient among the string of unsuccessful efforts are the establishment of the Provincial Councils and the proposed Draft Constitution of 1997. Evaluating the 13th Amendment to the Constitution The 13th Amendment enacted on 14 November 1987 sought to devolve power to the regions and provided for the establishment of Provincial Councils with legislative powers and the appointment of a Governor with executive powers for the respective provinces. It created three lists; the first contained powers that were retained by the central government (reserved list); the second listed the powers devolved to the provinces, and the third detailed shared powers between the government and provinces (concurrent list). Members to the respective regional bodies are elected under the proportional representation electoral system, introduced by the Second Republican Constitution of 1978.194 The imprecise division of power between the centre and peripheries and the latter’s inability to exercise exclusive competence or jurisdiction in any policy area are some of the significant shortcomings of the 13th Amendment. Authority in two crucial spheres – land settlement and maintenance of law and order – was left entirely to the prerogative of the central government, with serious implications for Tamil security in the North-East. The Councils also had no independent fiscal powers – it could neither borrow nor tax – and was completely dependent on finances from central government. Thus, it is no surprise that despite the 13th Amendment, Sri Lanka remains a heavily centralised state with no real autonomy ceded to the Tamils. As Edrisinha195 notes, “Continued centralisation was strikingly symbolised by the conspicuous strength of the executive presidency, although in some areas, such as health and education, devolved powers could be reclaimed by simple ministerial directive”. Edrisinha196 also points out that the greatest obstacle to practical devolution was the first phrase of the Reserved List which provided for ‘National Policy on all Subjects and Functions’ to be determined by Parliament; this totally undermined powers apparently devolved to the provinces. As the conflict escalation patterns have shown, the experiment with devolution vis-á-vis the 13th Amendment to the Constitution has been wholly inadequate. Evaluating the proposed Draft Constitution of 1997 194The proportional representation system was introduced with the new constitution so that a change to the constitution could be prevented, by rendering it virtually impossible for any one party to muster a two-thirds majority. R. Edrisinha, “Trying times: constitutional attempts to resolve armed conflicts in Sri Lanka,” Conciliation Resources, London, August, 1998. 195 196 Ibid. 55 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW In many ways, the Draft Constitution presented by the People’s Alliance Government on 03 August 1997, represented a huge leap forward for power-sharing in Sri Lanka. The full constitutional reforms presented to Parliament in October offered substantial concessions on representational, juridical, and financial matters and envisaged a sweeping restructuring of the existing system, introduced by the 13th Amendment. The powers of the centre and the regions were to be reconstituted, with greater autonomy granted to new “regional councils”. The existing list of concurrent powers was to be abolished and most powers on this list were to be transferred to the proposed regional councils. The draft also proposed to curb the excessive concentration of power vested in the executive presidency and distribute greater autonomy to the peripheries. However, there were no guarantees of equality as propounded by consociational theorists to reflect the plural nature of the country. In fact, the proposed draft very explicitly accorded Buddhism, the religion of the majority of the Sinhalese population, the “foremost place”. In addition, the draft did not require that recruitment to the public service and the police service should reflect ethnic diversity. In mixed ethnic regions, the lack of clarity can indeed be dangerous197. But more centrally, a direct voice for the regional representatives in the central institutions was not provided for, although a considerable devolution of financial and administrative power was proposed. The essence of power-sharing where the common polity is jointly ruled was thus totally overlooked. The Need for Consociational Thought Throughout the early years of independence, Sri Lanka invited international admiration because of the leading position it commanded in Asia not just in terms of economic prosperity, but also for the peaceful co-existence of its diverse ethnic communities. However, the relative stability of the 1950s and 1960s was soon replaced by growing hostilities between the two principal ethnic communities. This has been correctly attributed to the shift to the increasing centralisation of power and the denial of autonomy to the Tamil-dominated provinces under the growing influence of Sinhala Buddhist nationalism198. The classic majoritarian system handed over by the British was rapidly defined by the Sinhalese political elite in terms of dominance by an ethnic, linguistic and religious majority – the Sinhalese Buddhists. The cosmetic transfer of administrative power through the 13th Amendment proved unsatisfactory not just to the Tamil rebels waging a guerrilla-style war, but also to the more moderate Tamil political leaders. Even the most radical constitutional reforms M. Chadda,“Between Consociationalism and Control: Sri Lanka,” in U. Schneckener and Wolff, S., eds., Managing and Settling Ethnic Conflicts: Perspectives on Successes and Failures in Europe, Africa, and Asia, (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004), p.100. 198 Chadda, p.98 197 56 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 proposed by the Sri Lankan Government in 1997 which featured regional devolution of power as its centre-piece, did not transcend the majoritarian-style of governance, one of the root causes of the conflict. Where Lijphart’s favourable conditions for an elite commitment to cooperate are concerned, Sri Lanka does not meet all the required criteria. Although there are distinct cleavages and the country is relatively small in size, there are no external threats to unite the main communities and is there the balance of power requirement is absent for the Sinhalese make-up 74 percent of the population while the Tamils account for only 18 percent of Sri Lanka’s population of 20 million. But as Lijphart himself concedes, these conditions are neither necessary nor sufficient: “even when all of the conditions are unfavourable, consociationalism, though perhaps difficult, should not be considered impossible.”199 Conclusion Based on a comparative analysis, I have argued that the power-sharing devices established under the Belfast Agreement of 1998 is paving the way for the successful transformation of a deep-seated conflict in Northern Ireland, and is creating a considerably more stable society. Contrastingly, the various mechanisms designed to mitigate conflict in Sri Lanka have not able to achieve their intended goals. This is largely because the essence and spirit of power-sharing have been largely ignored by the country’s policymakers. As ethnic frictions in Northern Ireland are sedated by consociational prescriptions, hostilities continue to escalate in Sri Lanka despite the many attempts to formulate a mutually acceptable power-sharing formula. What Northern Ireland shows is that even in seemingly intractable civil conflicts, it is possible to create a break-through in negotiations if the parties are willing to rethink the framework for a settlement. In the Sri Lanka case, the principles of consociationalism and asymmetry may be necessary innovations of this kind. Thus, Northern Ireland teaches Sri Lanka that consociationalism, despite its alleged deficiencies, is a viable method of resolving conflict in deeply divided societies. Consociational democracies feature a consensual decision-making process at the central level on issues of joint concern, and genuine autonomy for ethnic groups to decide on matters of particular relevance to them. To promote stability, Sri Lankan policymakers should put forward an alternative choice based on the Draft Constitution of 1997, preferably a system which has elements of consociationalism and federalism. Elements of consociationalism are necessary for settlement: consociational mechanisms don’t always polarise ethnic communities further as critics have alleged and can – and indeed does – promote cross-community cooperation as I have argued. When faced with a past of oppressive majority rule, simple plurality is not feasible. The reality is that in 199 A. Lijphart, Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration, (New Haven: Yale, 1977), p.54. 57 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW the face of few alternatives, consociationalism has become a prudent pathway for regions plagued with a history of communal differences. REFERENCES Barry, Brian. Culture and Equality, Cambridge. MA: Harvard University Press, 2001. Bastian, Sunil and Robin Luckham. Can Democracy be Designed? The Politics of Institutional Choice in Conflict-torn Societies. London: Zed Books, 2003. Bogaards, Matthijs.“The Favourable Factors for Consociational Democracy: A Review,” European Journal of Political Research 33, no.4 (1998): 475-496. Bose, S..“Flawed Mediation, Chaotic Implementation: The 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Peace Agreement.” In Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements, edited by S.J. Stedman, D. Rothchild and E.M. Cousens. Boulder: Lynn Rienner Publishers, 2002. 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(Review): “Northern Ireland and the Divided World: The Northern Ireland Conflict and the Good Friday Agreement in Comparative Perspective.” by McGarry, J., The American Political Science Review 96, no. 4 (2002): 857-858. Schnekener, Ulrich. “Making Power-Sharing Work: Lessons from Successes and Failures in Ethnic Conflict Regulation.” Journal of Peace Research 39, no. 2 (2002): 203-28. Sisk, T. D. and C. Stefes“Power-sharing as an Interim Step in Peace Building: Lessons from South Africa.” In Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy After Civil Wars, edited by P.G. Roeder and Donald Rothchild. Ithaca: Cornell University, 2005. Stroschein, Sherrill. “What Belgium Can Teach Bosnia: The Uses of Autonomy in ‘Divided House’ States.” Journal on Ethnopolitics and Minority Issues in Europe 3, (2003). The Economic Times (2007) “Panel on Lanka Devolution Package May Study Overseas Models”, 26 December, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com. United Nations Population Fund (2007) “World Population Datasheet: Sri Lanka” Population Reference Bureau, http://www.prb.org/Countries/srilanka.asp Uyangoda, Jayadeva.“Ethnic Conflict, Ethnic Imagination and Democratic Alternatives for Sri Lanka.” Futures 37, no. 9 (2005). Walter, Barbara F. Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002. 60 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 ONE STATE OR TWO? THE SEARCH FOR A SOLUTION TO THE CYPRUS PROBLEM Nicola Solomonides ABSTRACT The island of Cyprus has been the site of severe ethnonational conflict. As a result, there have been numerous attempts to deal with the situation, ranging from a power-sharing constitution, the partition of the island with the separation of the Greek- and TurkishCypriot communities, to the Annan Plan, which attempted to establish a federal solution for the island. As such, Cyprus provides a useful case study of the effectiveness of various methods of ending ethnic conflict. Due to the failure of the 1960 Constitution and its attempt at consociational democracy, and as a result of the rejection of the Annan Plan, the possibility of a two-state solution merits consideration. This paper evaluates the reasons for these failures by measuring up the practical facts of the Cyprus situation to the relevant political theory, and, in light of renewed efforts to solve the ‘Cyprus Problem’, attempts to determine the best possible future solution for Cyprus, and whether this is more likely to be along the lines of a bizonal, bicommunal federation, or the emergence of two separate states. Keywords: ethnic conflict; divided society; consociationalism; partition; population transfer; federalism; Annan Plan INTRODUCTION The divided society of Cyprus, having been regarded as “a hotspot of ethnic violence”, and “exemplary of intractable ethnonational conflicts”,200 provides a useful case study of consociational democracy, partition and federalism as attempted solutions for ethnic conflict. The 1960 Constitution provides an example of a failed attempt at consociational democracy; the partition following the 1974 Turkish invasion, while successful in terms of ending violence, has still left dissatisfaction on both sides; and the Annan Plan, proposing a federal solution, was largely rejected. This essay seeks to examine each of these approaches and will attempt to determine the best possible future solution for Cyprus: whether this is more likely to be along the lines of a bizonal, bicommunal federation, or the emergence of two separate states. 200 Pollis 1979, in Papadakis, Peristianis, and Welz, 2006, 5 61 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW It will first be necessary to look at a brief historical outline of the island’s ethnic conflict. I will then consider the constitution of 1960 as a failed experiment in consociational democracy, by looking at the conditions necessary for successful implementation of power-sharing agreements and determining the absence of these conditions in Cyprus. Next I will look at the issue of partition, by examining the theory of partition as a means of ending conflict, and by looking at how partition was implemented in Cyprus, and how it has fared over the years at keeping conflict at bay. The Annan Plan proposed a federal solution for Cyprus, so I shall consider the conditions necessary for federalism to be successful, and then consider whether these conditions are present in the case of Cyprus. I will argue that, as with the experiment in consociationalism, the necessary conditions for federalism are markedly absent. I will conclude that, as a result of the successful outcome of partition in keeping conflict at bay, and due to the hardening identities and hostilities between the communities over time, it is necessary to either consider the option of a two-state solution, or to gingerly attempt, over time, some form of shared decision-making which could potentially create the conditions necessary for a federal structure. However, I will argue that, at least for the time being, no such structure is appropriate. A TURBULENT HISTORY The British colonial period, beginning in 1878, witnessed the rise of Greek and Turkish nationalism in Cyprus: Greek-Cypriots strove for enosis, the union of Cyprus with Greece; Turkish-Cypriots demanded taksim, partition of the island. From 1955, the enosis movement took the form of an armed insurrection led by EOKA201, and in 1957, Turkish-Cypriots set up their own armed organization, TMT202. The opposed aims of the two major ethnic groups and the British policies of exacerbating divisions, for instance by enrolling Turkish-Cypriots as auxiliary policemen against the EOKA insurrection, led to violent interethnic confrontations203. British colonial rule ended in 1960, and an independent state, the Republic of Cyprus, was created as a compromise solution reflecting the opposed interests of the two antagonistic ethnic groups; however, independence did not satisfy the aspirations of either group. Both continued to pursue their respective aims of enosis and taksim, resulting in interethnic violence in 1963. In 1964 the United Nations came to Cyprus to maintain peace. By 1967, interethnic violence had died down. A coup on July 15, 1974, against the then president of the Republic, Archbishop Makarios, by the pro-union faction EOKA B, prompted Turkish military intervention, dividing the island: Greek-Cypriots fled to the south and TurkishCypriots moved to the north. Since then, the Greek-Cypriot-controlled Republic of National Organization of Cypriot Fighters Turkish Resistance Organization 203 Pollis 1979, in Papadakis, Peristianis, and Welz, 2006, 2 201 202 62 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 Cyprus has remained the only internationally recognized state in Cyprus, while the selfdeclared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), established in 1983, has not gained international recognition. Since 1974, the largest international effort to solve ‘the Cyprus Problem’ was the ‘Annan Plan’, a negotiated UN-brokered constitutional arrangement. It called for a federal, bicommunal, bizonal solution, and culminated in referenda on both sides. The plan was rejected on the Greek-Cypriot side by a majority of 76%, even though it was accepted on the Turkish-Cypriot side204. The attempt therefore failed, as had the previous attempt at a solution: the 1960 Constitution. THE 1960 CONSTITUTION: AN ATTEMPT AT CONSOCIATIONAL DEMOCRACY When it comes to managing and settling ethnic conflicts, power-sharing arrangements often seem appropriate: the former antagonists have to work together and make decisions by consensus, the ultimate goal being to turn opponents into partners. This concept of conflict regulation, called ‘consociational democracy’ (a form of government, involving guaranteed group representation), is often suggested for managing conflict in deeply divided societies. This concept can only be successful under specific conditions. Lijphart205 has identified four key characteristics of consociational democracies: (1) Government by grand coalition – the government includes representatives from all groups in society; (2) Proportional representation – all groups are adequately represented within the executive, parliament, legal system and public service; (3) Mutual veto – each group has the opportunity to block political decisions using its veto rights, the aim being to foster consensus-building and compromise; (4) Segmental autonomy – each group enjoys some degree of self-government, maintaining its own elected bodies and institutions, leaving only few issues to be coordinated with other segments of society, thus allowing for different culturally-based community laws. The 1960 Cyprus constitution embodied all the principles of consociational democracy. The president, a Greek-Cypriot, and the vice-president, a Turkish-Cypriot, were to be elected by their respective communities and were to share prerogatives and executive power. A 50-member house of representatives was composed of 35 Greek- and 15 Turkish-Cypriots elected by their respective communities. Either the president or the vice-president could veto legislation passed by the house of representatives in the areas of foreign affairs, defense, and internal security, but not legislation passed in the communal chambers. The principles of grand coalition and proportionality were further strengthened by the provisions that the council of ministers, the legislature and the public service were all to be apportioned in a ratio of 70% Greek-Cypriot and 30% Turkish-Cypriot, while the army was to have a 60:40 ratio. Measures for autonomy 204 205 By 66 percent Lijphart, 1977 63 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW included separately elected communal chambers as well as provisions for separate municipalities in the five main towns, reflecting the separation of the ethnic populations in urban areas. However, the state of affairs established by the constitution lasted only three years, due to “[c]hronic disagreement, growing deadlock, and mounting acrimony between the communities”206. It is thus necessary to examine certain favorable conditions207 under which consociationalism is more likely to be successful, and see whether these were present in Cyprus. The first favorable condition is a balance of power, whereby the state or region is not dominated by a clear majority group. Instead there exists a relative equilibrium between groups, either through the existence of a number of groups, none of which constitutes a majority, or the existence of two practically equal segments. Secondly, similar socioeconomic conditions across the groups are favorable. Indeed, “[t]he smaller the economic and social differences between the groups, the better the conditions for consociationalism”208. Thirdly, the existence of overarching loyalty is very important, as the disparate groups share a feeling of belonging to one nation/region, and are held together by a common loyalty. Fourthly, a multi-party system ensures that each group is represented by several political parties or movements. Fifthly, the existence of crosscutting cleavages is important, whereby the population is characterised by cleavages which cut across ethno-national/linguistic lines, preventing the creation of homogeneous groups. The sixth favorable condition is that of comprehensive participation: all relevant groups are represented at the negotiating table and in the power-sharing system itself. It is important that the agreed consociational structure was developed by the groups themselves and not forced upon them by external powers. This will help ensure the seventh favorable condition: that the consociational solution is not questioned by any side, and all parties to the power-sharing arrangement are interested in maintaining the agreed status quo. Eighth, it is important that elites occupy a dominant position in society, whereby the political leadership of each group is able to win internal support for compromises and agreements209. Finally, territorial segmentation is believed to be helpful, as, where groups live territorially segregated, it is possible to combine consociational democracy with territorial arrangements to allow more regional self-rule for each group. We shall now consider whether these conditions were present in Cyprus. Firstly, there was no equilibrium between the two communities, but clear domination by the GreekCypriot group210. Secondly, there were huge socioeconomic disparities between the groups: the Turkish population was clearly disadvantaged in comparison to the Greek Bose, 2007, 75 Lijphart, 1977; Schneckener, 2002 208 Schneckener, 2002, 211 209 Over time, experiences of such compromises and agreements could serve as reference points of cooperation, thus creating a tradition of elite accommodation. 210 Which represented almost 80% of the population 206 207 64 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 majority, and this split deepened after independence. Thirdly, and possibly most significantly, there was no overarching loyalty which united the two communities, nor was there the concept of a common, inclusive Cypriot identity. Indeed, “[t]he Cypriots were not a single people with differing tendencies but, rather, two different peoples...Greeks and Turks on Cyprus thought of themselves as Greeks and Turks, not as Cypriots”211. Fourthly, there was no multi-party system in Cyprus, but rather, national fronts existed in each camp, marginalizing any internal, potentially more moderate position. Fifthly, there were no cross-cutting cleavages (this was reinforced by the constitution, which separated the population into two electorates), and bi-communal parties did not exist at all. Sixth, there was no comprehensive participation in the negotiating process. The guarantor powers (Turkey, Greece and Great Britain) established a solution, while the two ethnic groups in question were only partly and indirectly involved in negotiations. As the power-sharing constitution was written and tabled by international mediators, it was viewed, especially by the Greek-Cypriots, as having been forced upon them. According to Lijphart, “consociationalism cannot be imposed against the wishes of one or more segments in a plural society and, in particular, against the resistance of a majority segment”212. As for the seventh favorable condition, respecting the status quo, the Greek-Cypriots did not want to give up their former hegemonic position, while the Turkish-Cypriots largely supported separatist options. With both sides oriented towards the nation-state model, power-sharing was seen as insufficient for safeguarding the ethno-national identities. Eighth, the leaders of the two communities did not exhibit a spirit of moderation and refused to compromise. Finally, regarding territorial segmentation, while the groups lived in segregated neighborhoods, the population was still, to a large extent, mixed. Furthermore, “the infant Cypriot state’s experiment in consociational government was doomed to break down because...it lacked any provision for close, neutral, international supervision and mediation during its implementation”213. But more importantly, the constitution itself proved to be unworkable, especially with the mutual veto power resulting in repetitive deadlock. In short, the conditions prevailing in Cyprus at the time of the implementation of the constitution did not favor success. THE “SOLUTION” OF PARTITION Sustained wars produce and reinforce hatred that does not end with the violence214, so how can groups of people who have been killing one another come together to form a common government and/or society? According to Kaufmann215, they cannot. His theory is based on the premise that, in ethnic wars both hypernationalist mobilization rhetoric and actual atrocities harden ethnic identities to the point that cross-ethnic political Coughlin, in Gai, 2000, 224 Lijphart (1977: 160), in: Coughlin, in Gai, 2000, 227-8 213 Bose, 2007, 79-80 214 Licklider, 1995, 681-690 215 Kaufmann, 1996 211 212 65 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW appeals become futile; indeed “restoring civil politics in multi-ethnic states shattered by war is impossible because the war itself destroys the possibilities for ethnic cooperation”216. Furthermore, intermingled population settlement patterns create security dilemmas due to the escalation of each side’s mobilization rhetoric presenting a real threat to the other, and because intermingled population settlement patterns create defensive vulnerabilities and offensive opportunities. Such security dilemmas intensify violence, and de-escalation is not possible unless the groups are demographically separated, as “[s]eparation reduces both incentives and opportunity for further combat”217. Furthermore, while Kaufmann does not deny the existence of other possible solutions such as peace enforcement by international forces, he claims that they only last as long as the enforcers remain. Ultimately, “as long as either side fears, even intermittently, that it will be attacked by the other, past atrocities and old hatreds can easily be aroused”218. There are, however, objections to this theory. Groups may not necessarily see their identity as ‘hardened’ as Kaufmann suggests; there may be divisions within ethnic groups. Kaufmann’s theory also raises problems for people of mixed ethnicity – to which side of the partition do they belong? Moreover, it has been suggested by Sambanis219 that partition quite possibly not only fails to address the issues, but moreover results in conflict on a different level. Furthermore, as Kumar220 suggests, the process of partition is hardly straightforward, and can create problems. For instance, there is a clear human rights issue involved in population transfers221. Following the outbreak of violence in Cyprus in 1974, the two communities were strictly separated, resulting in the partition of the island with the Turkish-Cypriots occupying the North, and the Greek-Cypriots the South. However, this was hardly a straightforward process, taking about 14 years to establish. Following the collapse of the constitution in December 1963, the governmental machinery of the Republic of Cyprus was operated by Greek-Cypriots. Turkish-Cypriots were confined to decisions affecting the administration of their own communities. During this period, a quarter of the TurkishCypriot population became refugees and more than half of these gathered in armed enclaves. The intercommunal violence in 1963 and 1964 led the Turkish-Cypriots to conclude that physical, geographical separation of the two communities was essential to their safety and security. In 1963, the ‘Green Line’ divided Greek- and Turkish-Cypriots in Nicosia, the island’s capital, after which, ethnic conflict intensified. In 1964 the Turkish-Cypriot community declared support for partition. Conflict continued to escalate until, in 1974, the Turkish invasion reinforced the de facto partition of the Ibid, at p 137 Ibid 218 Ibid, at p 174 219 Sambanis, 2000 220 Kumar, 1997 221 This can be seen in Cyprus, concerning property of Greek-Cypriots in the North and, to a lesser degree, that of Turkish-Cypriots in the South. People on each side claim it is a violation of their property rights that they cannot use and/or profit from their properties on the opposite side of the ‘Green Line’, and many cases have been taken to the European Court of Human Rights on this precise matter. 216 217 66 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 island. Forced population movements from 1963, and especially in 1974, produced internal flows and disruptions involving displaced persons. Approximately 200,000 Greek refugees moved south of the ‘Green Line’, and around 60,000 Turkish-Cypriots moved north222. Movements of people from Anatolia and other parts of Turkey to the north have since been induced to alter the demographic balance. While the partition of Cyprus was hardly smooth and uneventful, it succeeded in ending the violence that had previously plagued the island. In fact, the situation has remained remarkably stable since 1974223, especially in comparison with the escalating ethnic violence from 1955-1974. Nevertheless, critics have argued that, regardless of the fact that there have been virtually no casualties since, the partition and the population exchange actually made the conflict worse. According to Kumar, “the division of Cyprus is little more than a long standoff that remains volatile and continues to require the presence of UN troops”224. Admittedly, the partition of the island, while it quelled the violence, did not solve the problem behind it. The first attempt at power-sharing in 1960 was unsuccessful, and over the years identities have certainly hardened. This, along with over 30 years of partition, does not bode well for the possibility of a shared future for the island. Indeed, partition is said to entrench differences and possibly even institutionalise them. According to Varshney225, interethnic networks and communication are necessary to build bridges between communities and prevent ethnic violence. The argument is that, because interethnic and intraethnic networks of civic engagement “build bridges and manage tensions, interethnic networks are agents of peace, but if communities are organized only along intraethnic lines and the interconnections with other communities are very weak or even nonexistent, then ethnic violence is quite likely”226. By extension, a multiethnic society with few connections across ethnic boundaries is very vulnerable to ethnic disorders and violence. Applying this theory to Cyprus, we conclude that violence is likely as there are no such interethnic networks. While, in the 1990s an energetic bicommunal movement for change emerged, seeking to address the past and look to a shared future through dialogue and bicommunal activities, it had limited impact on society at large. This was largely due to the ‘damage’ done by history, and the biased presentation of this history on both sides, especially through the education systems. There is undeniably a presentation of opposed historical claims. Indeed, in the divided capital, there is on each side a Museum of National Struggle, the historical narratives of which express both sides’ official constructions of the past, ending up with totally opposed stories227. Indeed, “history is often quoted as proof of the impossibility of rapprochement and cohabitation”228, largely as a result of the fact that “the hegemonic Cranshaw, ‘Cyprus Revolt’, p 395; Polyviou, ‘Cyprus’, p 203, Kaufmann, 1998, 151 Kaufmann, 1998 224 Kumar, 1997, 29 225 Varshney, 2001 226 Ibid, p 363 227 Papadakis 1994, in: Papadakis, Peristianis, and Welz, 2006, 6 228 Papadakis, Peristianis, and Welz ,2006, 112 222 223 67 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW discourse within each of the two main ethnic communities on the island has been emphasizing their very different cultures and each group as a part of two separate ‘mother-nations’”229. Yet despite the lack of reconciliation, the situation has remained relatively calm for over 30 years. Nevertheless, neither side is entirely happy with the current arrangement. The Greek-Cypriots have still not accepted the partition of the island as the end of the story, calling for reunification. Turkish-Cypriots, on the other hand, are more in favour of division, however, the TRNC is not currently internationally recognised. It is worth noting, however, that since the opening of the checkpoints in April 2003, people from both communities have crossed over in substantial numbers230, and the absence of violence is noteworthy, perhaps giving some hope for the future. However, as Kumar points out, “ethnic partitions have never been reversed; their implementation has inexorably driven communities further apart”231. A FEDERAL SOLUTION? Following the population transfer and definitive separation of the two communities, it became possible to consider a solution of territorially based federalism. Classical arguments in favour of federalism assert that some form of federalism or decentralization of government power “enhances national unity and consensus, promotes security, protects citizens against encroachment by the state, limits ethnic conflict, and safeguards individual and communal liberty”232. There is some debate concerning the merits of symmetric devolution of power233 versus asymmetric devolution234. The idea of symmetric devolution is that, by dividing up an ethnic enclave, conflict is diffused. Indeed, federalism has significantly contributed to peace-making processes, as it offers a balance between unity for common purposes and separation for ethnic or other local reasons. Majorities tend to favour the option of federations235, while minorities tend to prefer confederations236 or asymmetrical devolution/autonomy. Heintze237 defines autonomy Ibid, at p 102 About 40% of Greek-Cypriots say they have never crossed, about 50% say they have crossed once or a few times in the past but no longer, and about 10% still cross over. By comparison, about 30% of Turkish-Cypriots have never crossed, about 25% have crossed once or a few times in the past but no longer, and about 45% still cross over. (‘The UN in Cyprus: An Inter-Communal Survey of Public Opinion by UNFICYP’, http://www.unficyp.org/UNFICYP%20Survey.htm) 231 Kumar, 1997, p33 232 Wibbels, 2006, 167 233 Ie federalism 234 Ie autonomy 235 Watts (1998) defines a federation as “a compound polity combining constituent units and a general government, each possessing powers delegated to it by the people through a constitution, each empowered to deal directly with the citizens in the exercise of a significant portion of its legislative, administrative, and taxing powers, and each directly elected by its citizens” (p 121) 236 Watts (1998) defines confederations as “a species of federal system in which the institutions of shared rule are dependent on the constituent governments, being composed of delegates from the constituent governments and therefore having only an indirect electoral and fiscal base” (p 121) 229 230 68 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 as where parts of a state’s territory are authorised to govern themselves in certain matters by enacting laws and statutes, but without constituting a state of their own238. According to Rothchild and Hartzell239, autonomy mitigates the problem of security issues by reassuring groups and giving them a degree of control. They also note that there is a positive correlation between autonomy and stable peace-agreements. However, Mozaffar and Scarritt240 draw attention to the fact that in creating autonomous units, drawing the boundaries can increase conflict. Cornell241 appears to agree with this view and notes that creating an autonomous unit could be a step towards secession. Indeed, this is the chief concern with autonomy, and Brancati242, while conceding that decentralized systems can have the positive effect of reducing rebellions, points out that autonomy encourages the creation of regional parties and increases local incentives to rise to power within local institutions; over time, increasing the power of local parties could potentially lead to secession. It is precisely for this reason that GreekCypriots would be most unwilling to consider granting autonomy to the TurkishCypriots in the North. Due to the prolonged separation of the two communities on Cyprus, any settlement will have to assume a territorial dimension. A federation is often advanced as the best way to manage the nationalistic problems of the two communities. However, while the GreekCypriot community is in favour of a unitary federal state, the Turkish-Cypriot community favours a looser confederation243, chiefly due to concerns that, in a federal state, they would become an impoverished minority. However, the Greek-Cypriot community rejects the option of a confederation because they believe it would allow the TRNC to become a sovereign state.244 Ultimately, whether federal structures provide an adequate solution depends on the existence of several factors, similar to those conducive to consociationalism. However, “echoing Lijphart’s analysis of the conditions conducive to consociational democracy, Maurice Vile asserts that no two-unit federation has ever survived... ‘the danger of an irreconcilable confrontation between the units in a two unit federation is so great that sooner or later it would lead to a civil war, secession, or both’”245. This does not bode well for Cyprus. One factor favourable to the establishment of a federation is the existence of crosscutting cleavages. Where the member states’ alliances are subject to more than one cleavage, political tensions will be cancelled out since an individual cleavage does not Heintze, in Suksi, 1998 Ibid, p 7 239 Rothchild and Hartzell, 1999 240 Mozaffar and Scarritt, 1999 241 Cornell, 2002 242 Brancati, 2006 243 ‘The UN in Cyprus: An Inter-Communal Survey of Public Opinion by UNFICYP’, http://www.unficyp.org/UNFICYP%20Survey.htm 244 Bindebir, Handshin, Jovanovic, Rieck, 9 245 Coughlan, in Ghai, 2000, 237 237 238 69 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW become entrenched in the system. Indeed, it is the absence of alternative coalitions in bicommunal systems that results in the confrontation of the two communities on every issue. In Cyprus, there are no cross-cutting cleavages, but two homogeneous groups. Disagreements over issues can potentially destabilise the system because they may lead to the dissatisfaction of the minority group. In the absence of an overarching Cypriot nationalism, the result is the confrontation of two ethnies (if not nations) on the same island. Connected to the factor of cross-cutting cleavages is the number of units of a federation: “the Canadian case shows the necessity of a substantial number of member states in a federation. Only in this way, can the competing interests of the units be pacified”246. Yet, the ideal federation for Cyprus is considered to be bicommunal and bizonal, yet “to reduce any state to only two sectors, brings intolerance and the ability to control tensions becomes more difficult”247. This would therefore be problematic, since both communities are very nationalistic and lack commitment to a common authority; they would find themselves in “a zero-sum-game situation”248. Furthermore, in federations, decision-making is majoritarian. Due to the numerical imbalance between the two communities, the Turkish-Cypriots, as the minority, would have to place their trust in this mode of decision-making, yet this does not seem likely. It is also important that there exists goodwill and commitment in order to make a federation successful. Indeed, the success of a federation depends on tolerance and compromise among the leaders and the communities, and “unless co-operation and basic consensus exist, the viability and the success of a federation will be in doubt”249. Yet these factors are absent in Cyprus: the two communities both fear and mistrust each other, as do the respective community elites, looking protectively toward the outside motherland states. Ultimately, a federal arrangement is a second-best solution for both communities250. Greek-Cypriots, as the majority, prefer a unitary state but would settle for a federation with a strong central government251 to secure the reunification of the island, hence their emphasis on the ‘three freedoms’: freedom of movement, freedom to own property, and freedom to settle anywhere on the island. By contrast, Turkish-Cypriots, having exercised self-rule for so long, prefer to maintain a separate Turkish-Cypriot state, but would settle for an arrangement that creates two sovereign and loosely connected states252. However, “Greek-Cypriots consider acceptance of Turkish-Cypriot sovereignty Khashman, 1999 Beaufays, 1988, 77 248 Ibid 249 Khashman, 1999 250 Bahcheli, 2000, 203 251 ‘The UN in Cyprus: An Inter-Communal Survey of Public Opinion by UNFICYP’, http://www.unficyp.org/UNFICYP%20Survey.htm 252 ‘The UN in Cyprus: An Inter-Communal Survey of Public Opinion by UNFICYP’, http://www.unficyp.org/UNFICYP%20Survey.htm 246 247 70 VOL. 4, NO. 1 – SEPTEMBER 2008 as tantamount to legitimating the island’s partition”253, and have therefore rejected it. Indeed, there is a general fear among Greek-Cypriots that a federation will serve as a stepping stone to secession. Therefore, the essential prerequisites for an integrated government are absent in Cyprus. This was the reason for the collapse of the 1960 power-sharing agreement. Without sufficient trust and a sense of shared identity, a federal solution is unlikely to fare any better. Regarding the option of a confederation, in a bicommunal setting such arrangements create a risk of mutual vetoes and immobilisation. There is thus no reason to assume that a confederation would be any more viable than a federation in Cyprus254. In November 2002 the first version255 of the ‘Annan Plan’ was circulated. It proposed a loosely federal union in which the constituent territorial units would have maximal autonomy, and the limited joint institutions at the federal level would operate on the basis of consociational norms. The United Cyprus Republic would consist of a GreekCypriot constituent state over 72% of the island’s territory and a Turkish-Cypriot constituent state over the other 28%. The constituent states would have jurisdiction over all matters except foreign policy, EU affairs, and central bank functions, which would be the province of the federal government. On April 24, 2004, 64.9% of TurkishCypriots said Evet (Yes) to the Annan Plan, while, across the Green Line, 75.83% of Greek-Cypriots said Oxi (No). In his post-mortem Annan noted that “the sheer size of the No vote raises... fundamental questions”256. CONCLUSION: A FUTURE SOLUTION? The island of Cyprus has been the site of severe ethnonational conflict. As a result, there have been numerous attempts to deal with the situation. Practically every conceivable formula has been attempted to accommodate the interests of Greek- and TurkishCypriots: a power-sharing agreement in 1960, the de facto partition of the island and the separation of the two communities in 1974, and finally, an attempt in the form of the Annan Plan to establish a federal solution for the island. However, each attempt at ‘solving’ the island’s problem has failed. The 1960 constitution only lasted three years because the conditions necessary for consociational democracy were absent, and 44 years later the Annan Plan and its proposed solution of a confederation was rejected. Nevertheless, “[d]espite the failure of the latest peace efforts...both sides remain committed to the principle of federalism”257. However, without the presence of a shared identity and trust between the two communities, there is no reason to expect that a Bahcheli, 2000, 207 Ibid, p 214 255 There were to be four subsequent versions of the plan, incorporating minor modifications on various issues, but the fundamentals would remain unchanged. 256 Bose, 2007, 100 257 Pollis 1979, in Papadakis, Peristianis, and Welz, 2006, 24 253 254 71 INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY REVIEW bicommunal federation would fare any better than the power-sharing experiment of 1960. The most ‘successful’ measure has been that of partition. Ethnic violence on Cyprus, which reached crisis on several occasions between 1960 and 1974, has been negligible since the partition and population exchange following the Turkish invasion. As a result, the possibility of a two-state solution merits serious consideration. Naturally, there is resistance from most Greek-Cypriots regarding such action, as it would seem in effect to legitimise the Turkish occupation. However, an acknowledged two-state solution may be unavoidable. It would naturally involve partition, predictably along similar lines to those which already exist, and measures would need to be taken regarding the issue of property. For those individuals who have property on opposite sides of the Green Line, there would have to be some form of compensation, either in monetary form258, or in the form of a scheme of ‘property exchange’, whereby, for instance, a Greek-Cypriot with land in the north can trade properties with a Turkish-Cypriot who has land of equivalent value in the south259. This way both are able to take advantage of their property rights. It must be stressed, however, that a two-state solution would not be regarded as ideal, especially by the majority of Greek-Cypriots. Nevertheless, it cannot be completely excluded from the list of possible options, as, in light of the literature explored earlier, the most popular option of a bizonal, bicommunal federation, is hardly promising in the existing circumstances. It must, nonetheless, be noted that since the opening of the checkpoints, there has been a great deal of coming and going without incident, and this is certainly positive. 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