NÚMERO 221
JOSÉ FELIPE MARTÍNEZ*, LUCRECIA SANTIBÁÑEZ** Y EDSON SERVÁN***
Exploring the Links Between Immigration and
Educational Quality and Opportunity in Mexico
ENERO 2009
www.cide.edu
University of California, Los Angeles.
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas.
*** Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública.
*
**
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Abstract
This paper explores the relationship between education and immigration
from two complementary angles: first we explore how educational
experiences and opportunities offered to students in the Mexican
educational system may be related with individual expectations and
decisions to migrate to the United States. Second, we investigate the
relationship between rates of migration and a range of indicators of
educational quality including student achievement. Our results suggest
some patterns of association between migration rates and indices of school
quality, opportunity to learn and student achievement at the municipal
level. These results are indicative only of potential relationships between
variables, but do not support any conclusions about the direction of the
relationship. However, the initial results are consistent with the notion that
an expectation to migrate lowers incentives for people to continue their
schooling. Our findings, also suggest that high migration municipalities may
offer fewer schooling opportunities. This raises questions about the degree
to which cycles of migration in these communities may be reinforced
because lower school quality decreases the rates of return to schooling for
individuals in those communities, as well as opportunities for future
educational advancement.
Resumen
Este estudio explora la relación entre la educación y la migración desde dos
ángulos complementarios. Primero se explora cómo las experiencias
educativas y las oportunidades de los alumnos están relacionadas con la
expectativa individual y las decisiones de migrar a los Estados Unidos.
Segundo, se investiga la relación entre las tasas de migración y una serie
de indicadores de calidad educativa incluyendo resultados de
aprovechamiento escolar. Los resultados sugieren patrones asociativos
entre las tasas de migración y algunos indicadores de calidad educativa,
oportunidad de aprendizaje y aprovechamiento escolar a nivel municipal.
Los resultados son simplemente indicativos de relaciones entre variables y
no denotan ninguna causalidad. Sin embargo, los resultados son
consistentes con la noción de que la expectativa de migrar disminuye los
incentivos de los individuos para continuar su educación. Los resultados
también sugieren que aquellos municipios con altas tasas de migración
podrían ofrecer menos oportunidades educativas. Esto sugiere que quizá el
ciclo de migración en estas comunidades se podría ver reforzado ya que
menor calidad educativa disminuye las tasas de retorno de esta educación
para los individuos, así como sus oportunidades futuras para continuar su
educación.
E x p l o r i n g t h e L i n k s B e t we e n I m m i g r a t i o n a n d E d u c a t i o n a l Q u a l i t y …
Introduction
In the 1980s and 1990s, Mexico went through a series of economic crises and
periods of slow growth that took a toll on real salaries and employment. To
compensate for deteriorated economic circumstances, families implement
various strategies. One of these involves work by household members that
traditionally did not participate in the labor market (women, children);
another noticeable pattern was an increase in migration to the United States
(Canales, 2002)
Mexican migration to the US is not a new phenomenon. According to the
Mexican 200 Census, 97% of people who reported they had migrated abroad
between 1995 and 2000 had gone to the United States (see Caponi, 2006).
Canales (2002) and others note that recent immigration trends reveal three
main patterns: (1) migration is a growing phenomenon, now representing over
8% of the Mexican population (who lives abroad), compared to fewer than 2%
in the 1950s and 60s. Current estimates have 400,000 Mexicans migrating to
the US every year for either temporary or permanent settling (Cornelius,
2007). (2) That many more women and children are now migrating to the US
than before. Women in particular now make up close to 20% of nonpermanent (work-related) migration. In the early 1990s they represented only
4%. And (3), that migration is now occurring in many states and urban centers
which traditionally had not seen intense migratory patterns. While migration
used to be a predominantly rural phenomenon, currently half of migrants
come from urban centers, and half from rural areas.
The profile of the Mexican immigrant to the United States is changing and
no longer reflects the prototype of middle aged fathers of poor families;
today’s immigrant is more likely to be younger, single, and to have better
education than the national average among the population of Mexico (i.e.
secondary or some high school). Migration, however, is not merely an
economic phenomenon, one triggered mainly by the salary differential
between the US and Mexico. Social capital and human capital are important
predictors of first-time migration (Massey and Espinosa, 1997). In this view,
Migration is a dynamic, self-reinforcing process. Once a person in Mexico
migrates to the US for the first time, the probability of return is high, and the
probability of returning to Mexico (to settle back) decreases (Massey and
Espinosa, 1997).
Education is a factor in this process. Several authors have documented
that the rate of return to education is lower for Mexicans in the US than for
Mexicans staying in Mexico (Massey and Espinosa, 1997; Caponi, 2006;
McKenzie and Rapoport, 2006). A negative rate of return to a Mexican
education in the US would tend to lower the probability of migration,
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particularly for undocumented workers who, irrespective of education, all
appear to take on similar jobs (Massey and Espinosa, 1997).
Education, therefore, plays an important role to both motivate and deter
future migration. In the host country, research suggests a strong correlation
between the skills of immigrants and the skills of second-generation
Americans, so that the skill gap carries over to the next generation (Borjas,
1994). In Mexico, the availability of schooling opportunities could improve
rates of return to education in Mexico to a point where migration is no longer
such an attractive alternative.
On the other hand, the opportunity to migrate, with its effects on
alleviating future credit constraints on the family, create positive social
capital in the host country, and expectations of better opportunities overall
(Massey and Espinosa, 1997), could mean that regardless of schooling
opportunities in Mexico, youth will prefer to migrate. Some studies, in fact,
support this notion by showing that migration patterns in the community
appear to disincentivate youth (particularly males) from acquiring additional
education (McKenzie and Rapoport, 2006)
One area that the literature does not cover in nearly as much detail is the
potential relationship between immigration and school quality and
educational opportunity. As indicated by Macias (1991), educational
experiences in the country of origin are important to explain migration and as
context for understanding subsequent patterns of school achievement.
Moreover, the changing profile of the Mexican immigrant described before
means that an increasing proportion of people who immigrate do so when they
are still of school age.
This paper explores the relationship between education and immigration
from two complementary angles: first we explore how educational
experiences and opportunities offered to students in the Mexican educational
system may be related with individual expectations and decisions to migrate
to the United States. Second, we investigate the relationship between rates of
migration and a range of indicators of educational quality including student
achievement.
The paper is organized as follows: first section presents a review of
research on migration and education focusing on Mexico and the US. Section
two describes the conceptual framework and research questions guiding the
analysis, and the specific datasets and analytical approaches employed.
Section three presents preliminary results of the analysis. We conclude with a
discussion of the results and their implications for developing a framework for
studying the links between educational quality and immigration, and how
some of the research questions raised can be addressed using these and other
sources of data available or being developed in Mexico.
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1. Literature Review
Several studies have attempted to understand the relationship between
migration and education, both in the host country (the US) and in the country
of origin. Massey and Espinosa (1997), using data from household field surveys
collected in five states in Western Mexico between 1987-1992 find that
education (measured by years of schooling) decreases the probability of
migration because the rate of return to a Mexican education in the US is
negative.1 This is particularly the case for undocumented workers. Moreover,
community schooling infrastructure appears to decrease the probability of
first-time migration perhaps indicating that the higher rate of return to high
levels of education in Mexico lowers the expected benefit of migrating to the
US (Massey and Espinosa, 1997).
The decision to migrate for the first-time is crucial in jumpstarting a
migration cycle that will be very hard to break later on. Once people begin to
accumulate social capital (through family ties, friendships, relationships,
social networks) and US-specific human capital (experience in the US,
knowledge of English, knowledge of the US labor market, US labor market
experience), it will be very difficult for them to return to Mexico. And, the
likelihood that they will attract even more migrants to join them in the US
increases. This pattern appears to hold irrespective of tough US immigration
laws, legislation preventing undocumented workers from receiving social
benefits, and border enforcement.
More recent research by Caponi (2006), using data from the 2000 Mexican
Census, analyzed the relationship between human capital (as measured by
level of education) and migration choices among Mexicans, and finds that this
relationship is U-shaped, meaning that the highest and lowest educated will
tend to migrate more than the middle educated (those with 6-9 years of
schooling).2 The author argues that this relationship is due to the fact that the
lower educated have essentially no human capital to lose. The paper is not as
clear as to the reasons why people with high school degrees would be more
likely to migrate (also it does not make a distinction between migrating with
and without documents). The author finds that, in general, additional
education will tend to deter migration (up to a certain point). An interaction
dummy of education and immigration status has negative coefficient
What this means is that Mexican schooling pays less in the US than it does in Mexico. For example, an individual in
Mexico with lower secondary (9 years of schooling) will have a greater rate of return for these 9 years, than he
would have in the US. The reason is that overall, the population in the US has more years of schooling, so that
having lower secondary in Mexico might be an advantage (for job and salary opportunities) over the average
individual, but this would not be the case in the US where most people have a high school diploma.
2 There is also the possibility that both migration and education are related to unemployment in similar terms (i.e. a
u-shaped relationship between unemployment and education). However, in this paper we focus only on the
relationship between migration and education. Perhaps the dynamics introduced by modeling how unemployment
would affect this relationship can be dealt with in future work.
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suggesting that there is a loss of human capital when migrating to the US
Moreover, the study finds evidence that the rate of return to (a Mexican)
education is higher for residents in Mexico, than for Mexican immigrants in the
US (this supports earlier findings by Massey and Espinosa).
TABLE
1. MEXICO RESIDENTS COMPARED TO MEXICANS IN THE US, BY GENDER (2000)
MEN
MEXICO
RESIDENTS
NO SCHOOL
COMPLETE OR INCOMPLETE ELEMENTARY
LOWER SECONDARY
HIGH SCHOOL
COLLEGE
5.8
40.3
30.9
13.4
9.7
WOMEN
MEXICAN
IMMIGRANTS
IN US
12.0
30.6
24.5
22.2
10.7
MEXICO
RESIDENTS
8.1
43.4
27.3
14.5
6.7
MEXICAN
IMMIGRANTS
IN US
12.7
31.6
23.4
21.5
10.8
Source: Caponi, 2006 with data from the US Census (PUMS5), 2000 (US Census Bureau), and the XII Censo
General de Población y Vivienda, 2000 (INEGI).
Miranda (2007) examines whether family and community migration
patterns affect an individual’s probability of graduating from high school in
Mexico. It uses longitudinal data from the Mexican Migration Project collected
between 1982 and 2005. Its findings do not support the idea that most
migrants will tend to come from the top and bottom income and education
distributions. Using econometric models that control for unobserved
heterogeneity, the author finds that an extra migrant in the family decreases
the likelihood of high school graduation by 2.4 percentage points. Similarly,
individuals who live far away (an extra 1,000km) from traditional migrant
areas, have increased chances of graduating from high school (about 17.4
percentage points higher). The author suggests that individuals behave in a
forward-looking fashion. Since having a migrant member of the family,
increases the probability of migration for other members, individuals in this
situation will tend to dropout of school early and avoid wastage of valuable
resources.
The authors’ findings contradict other studies (e.g. Caponi, 2006) since it
predicts that most migrants will come from the middle rather than from the
tails of Mexico’s income and education distributions. This would suggest that
having more education (up to a certain point) increases the probability of
migration (hence the rate of return to education would be lower if staying in
Mexico). The paper speculates that wealthier families (not necessarily
wealthy, but with more income than poor families) can finance both
education and migration choices, thus making it possible to create positive
migrant selection (i.e. the migration of more educated individuals).
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McKenzie and Rapoport (2006) explore the impact of migration on
educational attainment and education inequality in rural Mexico, using data
from the 1997 National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID). Using
historical migration rates by state to instrument for current migration, the
authors find that there is a significant negative (disincentive) effect of
migration on educational attainment (years of schooling) for youth ages 16-18.
This effect is present for both males and females, but it is larger for the first
group. Moreover, higher levels of maternal education increase this
disincentive. In terms of education inequality, migration appears to lower
inequality, but this effect appears to be driven by an overall lower
educational attainment at the top of the education distribution, not by
improving education at the bottom.
2. Conceptual Framework, Data and Methods
As described before, most research on immigration and education uses raw
education outcomes such as years of schooling, and takes the features of the
educational system as either constant or unobservable. The econometric
literature includes fewer studies investigating the potential relationship
between immigration and educational quality and opportunity in the country
of origin. One example is the study by Massey and Espinosa (1997) which
reported a negative relationship between community schooling infrastructure
and probability of first-time migration. The authors found that whenever a
community had a high school (preparatoria) other things being equal, the
person would be less likely to migrate.
This paper explores the relationship between educational quality and
immigration from two complementary angles: first we investigate how the
educational experiences and opportunities offered to students in the Mexican
education system may be related to individual expectations and decisions to
migrate to the United States. Second, we investigate the relationship between
rates of migration and a range of aggregate indicators of educational quality
at the municipal level. In these analyses migration is used as an explanatory
variable of various indices of school quality in Mexico.
We focus on three main research questions: 1) Are factors of educational
quality and opportunity related with individual intention or decision to
immigrate to the United States? 2) Is there a relationship between
Immigration rates and aggregate measures of educational quality and
opportunity? 3) Is there a relationship between rates of immigration and
aggregate measures of student academic achievement?
Importantly, the goal of this work is not to establish causal or directional
links between educational quality and immigration, but to provide a
descriptive picture of the relationship from different angles and at different
levels of aggregation in order to refine a conceptual framework for further
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research in this area. Our intention is thus to advance in accurately defining
the central research questions of interest when studying the links between
immigration and educational quality and opportunity.
An exploratory approach that does not make assumptions about
directionality is useful here because the series of incentives commonly
assumed to underlie the relationship between education and immigration for
individuals may differ at the school or system level, and so can the
directionality of the relationship. For example, school quality may influence
migration decisions of individuals or family members remaining in Mexico, by
altering the rates of return to schooling as well as perceptions about future
education and employment opportunities in Mexico. However, a reciprocal
relationship could exist if migration rates negatively impact educational
quality at the school or educational system levels. While an expectation to
migrate may lower investments in education by families and individuals, high
migration rates should not in theory discourage investment in education by
communities and governments
2.1. Data
Data for this study come from four different sources: the Mexican Family Life
Survey (MXFLS), the Oportunidades program, the ENLACE national exams, and
the National Population Council (CONAPO).
ƒ The Mexican Family Life Survey (MXFLS). The MXFLS is a longitudinal panel
developed in collaboration by the Centro de Investigación y Docencia
Económicas (CIDE), the Universidad Iberoamericana, and UCLA. It
collected demographic, socio-economic and anthropometric data from
approximately 38 thousand individuals in about 8400 households
distributed across 137 municipalities in 16 Mexican states, as well as their
neighborhoods, communities, and schools; the data is nationally
representative at the regional, and urban-rural levels (Rubalcava and
Teruel, 2004). The first wave of MFLS data was collected in 20023 and is
publicly available. Along with individual level data on cognitive ability,
socioeconomic background, and intention to or history of migration to the
United States, it offers information about the context of schooling,
including school resources and leadership, and teacher background and
practices. The second wave (first follow-up) has been collected and will be
released in the coming months.
Variables extracted from the MXFLS household dataset include level of
schooling of heads of households and persons under 15 years of age,
migration and intention to migrate to the United States, history of grade
retention, and reasons for interrupting study if applicable. The household
and school datasets were used to create aggregate indicators at the
3
See http://www.radix.uia.mx/ennvih
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ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
municipal level, reflecting teacher education, teacher participation in the
national incentive program, availability of financial support and other
social programs for students, teacher absenteeism, school infrastructure,
resources and materials, as well as indices reflecting, school, teacher and
parental involvement in efforts to improve academic outcomes.
The Oportunidades Program Evaluation Datase. The second source of data
for this study comes from the evaluation of the Oportunidades Program,
one of the largest Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT) programs in the world,
reaching over 25 million Mexicans (almost 25% of the population). Through
the program, economically disadvantaged families receive a bimonthly
monetary transfer conditional on the fulfillment of a series of obligations
(“co-responsibilities”) designed to increase their health, nutrition, and
education. Community eligibility was determined based on a standard
measure of poverty based on census and economic data (the marginality
index). Within communities, households below certain levels of income
were deemed eligible and invited to participate (Skoufias, Davis and
Behrman, 1999). The 2003 data collection included 34,203 families in rural
communities in 281 municipalities in 7 states (Guerrero, Hidalgo,
Michoacán, Puebla, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí and Veracruz).
In addition to extensive information about individuals, families, and
communities, information was also collected about the schools attended
by individuals in the sample. These variables were used to construct
municipal aggregate indices to reflect school infrastructure, resources and
climate, teacher background and practices, and availability of support and
materials for teachers and students.
National Evaluation of Academic Achievement (ENLACE). The third dataset
is the national achievement exams (ENLACE) administered to all children in
the country in grades 3rd to 6th and 9th to assess their knowledge of the
spanish and mathematics curriculum. The exams are criterion-referenced
measures and place students on a four-point scale ranging from 1insufficient to 4-excellent. Results are available at the individual level, but
no individual identifiers are given and students cannot be tracked from one
year to the next (in addition, the exams are not vertically equated). At the
school and municipal level, identifiers are available allowing linkages with
other government datasets. We used the data from the 2006-2007 test
administration to estimate average indices of educational attainment for
2467 municipalities in the country.
National Population Council (CONAPO). Finally, immigration and
marginality indices were obtained from the National Population Council’s
(CONAPO) dataset for all municipalities in the country. Both indices are
scaled to a standard z-normal scale. The intensity of immigration index is
a composite of dimensions such as the percentage of households receiving
remittances, percentage with members in the United States during past
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five and ten years, and the number of circular migrants leaving and
returning. The marginality index is a composite measure of social and
economic well being at the municipal level, based on the proportion of
families with access to essential goods and services, including income,
adequate housing and education, among others.
2.2. Analytical Approach
Table 2 shows a list of the variables from each of the four datasets used in the
analysis. Unfortunately, it is not possible to directly match the MFLS, ENLACE,
and Oportunidades samples at the student level; the individual identifiers for
these datasets differ, and the data correspond to different and largely non
overlapping samples that were not all collected in the same year. While these
problems prevent direct matching of the datasets, it is nevertheless possible
to construct municipality-level indices using the information from the surveys.
Using individual level data along with these municipal indices our paper
investigates the relationship between features of quality in Mexican schools
that influence the kinds of educational opportunities afforded to students,
individual decisions to migrate to the United States, and municipal rates of
migration.
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TABLE
2. LIST OF VARIABLES FROM DATASETS USED IN THE ANALYSES
MEXICAN FAMILY LIFE SURVEY (MXFLS)
AGGREGATES OF INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL INDICATORS
ESCJH
ESC15
PENSOMIG
MIGUSA
CAMBIOEDUC
NOESCUELA
REPITIO
YEARS OF EDUCATION (HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD)
ESCRECIBAYUDA
BECASALUMNOS
RECIBALIM
ACTEXTRA
TALLEREXTRA
RRHH
RECMATERIALES
OTROMATERIAL
ESCMAESTROS
MAESTCARRMAG
FALTARON
MAESTPARTICIP
RENDMIG
INTERESPADRES
APOYOCOMUN
STUDENTS IN SCHOOL RECEIVE SUPPORT (FINANCIAL OR IN KIND) TO ATTEND
EXTCURR
NOCLASES
AMBIENTE
SERVICIOS
MEJORAS
MATERIALES
SCHOOL OFFERS EXTRA-CURRICULAR ACTIVITIES
PROMESP07
PROMMAT07
PERCINSUFESP07
PERCINSUFMAT07
PERCEXCELESP07
PERCEXCELMAT07
AVERAGE SCORE (SPANISH)
MARGINACION
INTMIGRA
MARGINALITY INDEX
YEARS OF EDUCATION (UNDER
15 YEARS OF AGE)
HAS THOUGHT OF MIGRATING TO USA
IMMIGRATED TO USA (SELF OR FAMILY MEMBER)
REASON WOULD CONSIDER IMMIGRATING: EDUCATION
NO SCHOOL IN COMMUNITY/SCHOOL CLOSED
REPEATED GRADE
AGGREGATES OF SCHOOL-LEVEL INDICATORS
STUDENTS IN SCHOOL RECEIVE SCHOLARSHIPS TO ATTEND
STUDENTS RECEIVE FREE BREAKFAST OR LUNCH IN SCHOOL
SCHOOL OFFERS EXTRA-CURRICULAR ACTIVITIES
SCHOOL OFFERS VOCATIONAL WORKSHOPS/VOCATIONAL EDUCATION
SCHOOL HAS ADEQUATE STAFFING (ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT)
SCHOOL HAS ADEQUATE INFRASTRUCTURE (CLASSROOMS, LABS, LIBRARY)
STUDENT ACCESS TO MATERIALS (BOOK, CALCULATOR, COMPUTER)
TEACHER EDUCATION
TEACHER ENROLLED IN CARRERA MAGISTERIAL
TEACHER ABSENTEEISM
TEACHERS ENGAGED IN ACADEMIC IMPROVEMENT EFFORTS
IMMIGRATION ADVERSELY AFFECTED STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT
PARENTAL INTEREST AND INVOLVEMENT IN SCHOOL MATTERS
COMMUNITY SUPPORT FOR SCHOOL
“OPORTUNIDADES” EVALUATION DATASET
DAYS CLASSES INTERRUPTED OR CANCELLED
TEACHER ENGAGEMENT IN SCHOOL IMPROVEMENT EFFORTS
SCHOOL INFRASTRUCTURE
IMPROVEMENTS TO SCHOOL INFRASTRUCTURE
AVAILABILITY OF EDUCATIONAL MATERIALS IN CLASSROOMS
ENLACE EXAM DATASET
AVERAGE SCORE (MATHEMATICS)
PERCENT INSUFFICIENT (SPANISH)
PERCENT INSUFFICIENT (MATHEMATICS)
PERCENT EXCELLENT (SPANISH)
PERCENT EXCELLENT (MATHEMATICS)
CONAPO DATASET
MIGRATION INTENSITY INDEX
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To answer the first research question (are factors of educational quality
and opportunity related with individual intention or decision to immigrate to
the United States?) we estimate a series logistic regressions using individual
level data from the MXFLS. The model represents the relationship between
the probability of considering migrating to the US and variables reflecting
educational history and experiences:
log( pmig i ) = β 0 + β 1 X 1,i + β 2 X 2 ,i
(1)
where X1 is a measure of parental years of schooling used to control for
socioeconomic background, and X2 is the educational indicators of interest. To
answer the second research question (is there a relationship between
Immigration rates and aggregate measures of educational quality and
opportunity?) we use linear regressions to link municipal immigration rates
and aggregate indices of educational quality form the MXFLS and
Oportunidades datasets; each relationship is estimated after partialing out
the potential effect of regional economic development by simultaneously
introducing the municipal marginality index as a covariate. The models follow
the general regression form:
Yi = β 0 + β 1 X 1,i + β 2 X 2 ,i
(2)
where the Ys are a municipal aggregates of educational quality and
opportunity, and X1 and X2 are the municipal indices of marginality and
immigration respectively from the federal CONAPO dataset. As mentioned
previously, our analysis do not make assumptions about (or provide a means to
test) the directionality of the relationships; the standardized regression
coefficients presented are simple partial correlations between immigration
rates and each of the indices, after accounting for municipal marginality.
Thus, the coefficients could be interpreted as reflecting different directional
or recursive links.
The third question concerns the relationship between rates of immigration
and aggregate measures of student academic achievement. We estimate the
relationship between municipal immigration rates and aggregate indices of
student achievement in Spanish and Mathematics from the ENLACE national
exams;. The model equation is the same as Equation (2),
Yi = β 0 + β 1 X 1,i + β 2 X 2 ,i where Y are aggregate levels of student achievement
in Spanish and mathematics, X1 is the municipal index of marginality used as a
covariate to extract variance due to differences in economic development
across regions, and X2 is the municipal index of immigration intensity.
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3. Results
We first present preliminary analysis investigating the relationship between
intention to immigrate and individual indicators from the MXFLS dataset,
including repeating grade, having to work during their studies, being forced to
interrupt studies because of closed schools, schools in bad conditions, lack of
teachers or teacher absenteeism, and willingness to move to continue
education.
TABLE
3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROBABILITY OF CONSIDERING IMMIGRATING
TO THE US AND EDUCATIONAL QUALITY
RELATIONSHIP WITH P(CONSIDER MIGRATING)
REGRESSION
P-VALUE
-0.023
0.146
0.361*
.780
.364
.003
0.923*
-0.577*
0.306
-0.491*
0.310*
0.605*
.001
.039
.210
.020
.000
.000
REPEATING GRADE
ELEMENTARY
SECONDARY
HIGH SCHOOL
WORKING DURING STUDIES
ELEMENTARY
SECONDARY
HIGH SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY
REASON WOULD MOVE: EDUCATION
FORCED TO INTERRUPT STUDIES
* Denotes coefficients statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.
The results of this analysis suggest that repeating grade in high school is
associated with a higher likelihood of considering migrating to the United
States, as is being forced to interrupt studies by lack of school, closed
schools, or absent teachers, and an expressed willingness to move to pursue
additional studies. On the contrary, working during secondary school and
university is negatively related to likelihood of considering migrating. The
second wave of MXFLS data contain information about actual decisions to
migrate for the people in the panel which will allow more rigorous
examination of this question.
Next we investigate the relationship between municipal immigration rates
and aggregate measures of educational quality and educational opportunity.
The results in Table 4 correspond to indices obtained from the Mexican Family
Life Survey sample of 137 municipalities in 16 states. Each row in the table is
a linear regression with the corresponding index as outcome, and the
municipal immigration rate and marginality index as predictors. The partial
DIVISIÓN DE ADMINISTRACIÓN PÚBLICA
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J o s é F e l i p e M a r t ín e z , L u c r e c i a S a n t i b á ñ e z y E d s o n S e r v á n
coefficients are shown standardized due to the differences in the scales of
each index.4
Factoring out level of economic development, the average level of
education of heads of household is significantly negatively related with the
municipal immigration rate (β=-0.404; p<0.001); on the other hand the level
of education of household members under 15 years of age is not related with
immigration rates. Immigration rates are higher in municipalities where higher
proportions of respondents repeated grade at some point during their studies
(β=0.171, p=0.025); in addition, immigration rates are higher in municipalities
where higher proportions of people report that schools are not available or
have been closed in their community (β=0.358, p<0.001), a result consistent
with Massey and Espinosa (1997). Interestingly, the degree of willingness
among the population to change the place of residency for reasons related to
education is negatively related to municipal migration rates, suggesting that
value assigned to education is negatively related to likelihood of migrating
(β=-0.182; p=0.036).
In terms of school indicators, some significant relationships were also
detected. Higher municipal rates of immigration are associated with lower
availability of extra-curricular activities (β=-0.236; p=0.002) and vocational
workshops or talleres (β=-0.179; p=0.026). Similarly rate of immigration is
negatively related with school infrastructure (β=-0.165; p=0.059), staffing (β=0.285; p<0.001), and access to materials (β=-0.322; p=0.000), even among
municipalities with similar economic development. On the other hand, no
relationship was observed at the municipal level between immigration rate
and the availability of programs that support and encourage school
attendance, either financial (e.g. scholarships) or in kind (e.g. breakfast).
Migration rates are not significantly related with average teacher
education, teacher absenteeism, or teacher engagement. Interestingly
however, the results suggest that in municipalities with higher levels of
immigration fewer teachers are enrolled in Carrera Magisterial the national
incentive program tied to teacher performance (β=-0.187; p=0.036).
Moreover, based on teacher reports, parental involvement with and
community support for the school are lower in municipalities with high
immigration rates. Lastly, higher immigration is associated with more
frequent reports from teachers and principals that “Immigration adversely
affects student achievement” (β=0.221; p=0.012); while the direction of this
relationship may seem clearer on its face, the precise nature or mechanisms
of this negative effect are not clear.
4 As noted previously however, the partial correlations estimated do not provide information to assess any
assumptions about direction or cause. The possibility remains, for example, that recursive relationships are present
at different levels of aggregation.
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E x p l o r i n g t h e L i n k s B e t we e n I m m i g r a t i o n a n d E d u c a t i o n a l Q u a l i t y …
TABLE
4. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IMMIGRATION RATES AND INDICES OF EDUCATIONAL
QUALITY (CONTROLLING FOR MARGINALITY)
IMMIGRATION RATES
ON INDEX
MEXICAN FAMILY LIFE SURVEY
(MXFLS)
PARTIAL
STD
P-VALUE
REGRESSION
AGGREGATES OF INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL VARIABLES
ESCJH
YEARS OF EDUCATION (HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD)
ESC_15
YEARS OF EDUCATION (UNDER 15 YEARS OF AGE)
REPITIO
REPEATED GRADE
DO NOT ATTEND SCHOOL: NO SCHOOL IN
COMMUNITY/SCHOOL CLOSED
NOESCUELA
CAMBIOEDUC
REASON WORLD CONSIDER IMMIGRATING: EDUCATION
SCHOOLS
ESCRECIBAYUDA
STUDENTS IN SCHOOL RECEIVE SUPPORT TO ATTEND
-0.404*
0.015
0.171*
.000
.499
.025
0.358*
-0.182*
.000
.036
0.070
.326
0.051
.579
-0.054
-0.236*
.558
.002
-0.179*
.026
-0.285*
.000
-0.165
.059
COMPUTER)
-0.322*
.000
TEACHER EDUCATION
0.049
-0.187*
0.060
.582
.036
.512
0.059
.500
-0.151
-0.165*
.090
.044
0.221*
.012
STUDENTS IN SCHOOL RECEIVE SCHOLARSHIPS TO
BECASALUMNOS
ATTEND
STUDENTS RECEIVE FREE BREAKFAST OR LUNCH IN
RECIBALIM
SCHOOL
ACTEXTRA
SCHOOL OFFERS EXTRA-CURRICULAR ACTIVITIES
SCHOOL OFFERS VOCATIONAL WORKSHOPS OR
TALLEREXTRA
EDUCATION
SCHOOL HAS ADEQUATE STAFFING (ADMINISTRATIVE
RRHH
AND SUPPORT)
SCHOOL HAS ADEQUATE INFRASTRUCTURE
RECMATERIALES
(CLASSROOMS, LABS, LIBRARY)
STUDENT ACCESS TO MATERIALS (BOOK, CALCULATOR,
OTROMATERIALUSAN
TEACHERS
ESCMAESTROS1
MAESTCARRMAG
FALTARON
TEACHERS ENROLLED IN CARRERA MAGISTERIAL
TEACHER ABSENTEEISM
TEACHERS ENGAGED IN ACADEMIC IMPROVEMENT
MAESTPARTICIP
EFFORTS
PARENTAL INTEREST AND INVOLVEMENT IN SCHOOL
INTERESPADRES
APOYOCOMUN
RENDMIG
MATTERS
COMMUNITY SUPPORT FOR SCHOOL
IMMIGRATION ADVERSELY AFFECTED STUDENT
ACHIEVEMENT
* Denotes coefficients statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.
DIVISIÓN DE ADMINISTRACIÓN PÚBLICA
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J o s é F e l i p e M a r t ín e z , L u c r e c i a S a n t i b á ñ e z y E d s o n S e r v á n
Table 5 presents the results of analysis similar to those in Table 4, using
indices from the Oportunidades dataset for a sample of rural communities in
281 municipalities in 7 states. As before, each row in the table is a linear
regression with municipal immigration rate as predictor and marginality index
as covariate. Once economic development is factored in, municipal
immigration rates are not significantly associated with any of the indices of
education quality extracted from the Oportunidades dataset. Although the
sample of municipalities is larger than MXFLS, it is important to keep in mind
that the sample includes only poor rural communities eligible for the program
(as the goal was to evaluate the impact of the program on those
communities). This will likely restrict the range of variability of the quality
indices computed considerably, thus decreasing power. Additional analyses
are underway using individual a wider section of variables in the
Oportunidades dataset.
TABLE
5. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IMMIGRATION RATES AND INDICES OF EDUCATIONAL
QUALITY (CONTROLLING FOR MARGINALITY)
IMMIGRATION RATES
OPORTUNIDADES
EXTCURR
NOCLASES
PARTIAL STD
REGRESSION
P-VALUE
0.107
0.065
.140
.290
0.231
.102
0.184
0.058
0.239
.113
.405
.072
SCHOOL OFFERS EXTRA-CURRICULAR ACTIVITIES
DAYS CLASSES INTERRUPTED OR CANCELLED
TEACHER ENGAGEMENT IN SCHOOL IMPROVEMENT
AMBIENTE
SERVICIOS
MEJORAS
EFFORTS
MATERIALES
CLASSROOM MATERIALS (DYDACTIC)
SCHOOL INFRASTRUCTURE
IMPROVEMENTS TO SCHOOL INFRASTRUCTURE
* Denotes coefficients statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.
The final set of analyses presented here explores the potential for a
relationship between immigration and student attainment. As reported in
Table 4 above for example, teachers in high immigration areas report that
“immigration adversely affects achievement”. Table 6 presents the results of
regression analysis investigating the relationship of municipal immigration
rates and average student achievement in the ENLACE Spanish and
mathematics national exams. Two separate results are reported, one using
overall aggregates across grades, and other focusing on 3rd grade of secondary
school. As before, the regression coefficients presented in the table are net of
the effect of municipal marginality (i.e. level of socio-economic
development).
14
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E x p l o r i n g t h e L i n k s B e t we e n I m m i g r a t i o n a n d E d u c a t i o n a l Q u a l i t y …
TABLE
6. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IMMIGRATION RATES AND
(CONTROLLING FOR MARGINALITY)
STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT
IMMIGRATION RATE
ENLACE EXAMS
PARTIAL
STD
P-VALUE
REGRESSION
OVERALL
AVERAGE SCORE
SPANISH
MATHEMATICS
-0.012
0.008
.398
.615
0.029*
0.030*
.058
.060
-0.098*
-0.035*
.000
.071
0.002
0.033
.894
.120
0.020
0.035
.233
.103
-0.086*
-0.022
.000
.328
PERCENT INSUFFICIENT
SPANISH
MATHEMATICS
PERCENT EXCELLENT
SPANISH
MATHEMATICS
SECONDARY
AVERAGE SCORE
SPANISH
MATHEMATICS
PERCENT INSUFFICIENT
SPANISH
MATHEMATICS
PERCENT EXCELLENT
SPANISH
MATHEMATICS
* Denotes coefficients statistically significant at the 90% con fidence level.
The results using the average criterion-referenced score as the dependent
variable reveal no significant relationship between immigration and
achievement once variance due to marginality is partialed out. However,
further analysis of the ENLACE scores suggest that considerable range
restriction in the distribution of average achievement across municipalities
may attenuate any relationships of these variables with other variables —as
presented in Figure 1 cases are heavily concentrated in a narrow band of the
1-4 scale, with nearly three in four cases in the 1.5 to 2.0 range.
We conducted two additional sets of analyses using the percentage of
students demonstrating insufficient and excellent achievement in the Spanish
and mathematics tests —that is, the proportion of students at the extremes of
the scales. The results reveal significant relationships (p<0.07) and suggest
the proportion of students below proficient levels in Spanish and mathematics
is higher in municipalities with higher immigration rates, while the percent of
DIVISIÓN DE ADMINISTRACIÓN PÚBLICA
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J o s é F e l i p e M a r t ín e z , L u c r e c i a S a n t i b á ñ e z y E d s o n S e r v á n
high achieving students is lower. Thus, even taking economic development
into account, differences are detected between high and low immigration
municipalities at the extremes of the achievement scale.
FIGURE
1. DISTRIBUTION OF AVERAGE LEVELS OF ACHIEVEMENT IN ENLACE
SPANISH AND MATHEMATICS EXAMS, ACROSS MUNICIPALITIES
While the mechanisms of this relationship remain unclear (however, see
teacher reports in the same sense in Table 4), one possibility is that higher
immigration influences achievement negatively by increasing student turnout
and absenteeism and making classrooms less stable environments. In addition,
it is possible that students are disincentivated in their schooling decisions
(including the decision to study and improve their achievement) because of
the possibility to migrate in the future. McKenzie and Rapoport (2006) found
disincentive effects for older boys (aged 16-19).
We ran regressions separately for secondary (9th grade) students. This
allows a closer look at patterns evident only for a population of youth closer
in age to where individual migration decisions happen (secondary students are
mostly between 15-16 years of age). Results suggest the differences fade
away and remain significant only for the highest scoring group in the Spanish
test. The patterns of self selection that drive decisions to drop out of school
by the end of secondary education may help explain this pattern at least in
part.
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E x p l o r i n g t h e L i n k s B e t we e n I m m i g r a t i o n a n d E d u c a t i o n a l Q u a l i t y …
Concluding Remarks and Next Steps
Using quantitative analyses of four publicly available Mexican datasets, this
paper revealed some patterns of association between migration rates and
indices of school quality, opportunity to learn, and student achievement at
the municipal level. Results from the MXFLS dataset suggest that
municipalities with higher rates of migration to the US tend to have lower
indices of school quality and opportunity. Municipalities with higher migration
rates to the US have, on average, more reported school closings or no schools.
In addition, they are associated with lower availability of extra-curricular
activities, vocational workshops or talleres, and lower levels of school
infrastructure, staffing, and access to educational materials. Moreover, based
on teacher reports, parental involvement with and community support for the
school are lower in municipalities with high immigration rates. And, higher
immigration is associated with more frequent reports from teachers and
principals that “immigration adversely affects student achievement.” With
respect to student achievement, the analysis of ENLACE data suggests that
there are more students in the lowest proficiency levels, and fewer in the
highest proficiency in high migration rate municipalities.
Interpretation of the results in this paper is limited by the reach of the
datasets employed, and the descriptive nature of the analysis. Also, while the
results cover more than half the states in the country, they are still clearly
not nationally representative (note however, that most of the states with
highest rates of immigration were included). Finally, by controlling for
marginality (which includes access to educational services) in municipal level
analyses we might have in effect partialed out some of the variation that we
were interested in; more direct measures of economic development.
Most importantly, the results are indicative only of potential relationships
between variables, but do not support any conclusions about the direction of
the relationship; thus, we cannot speculate about potential effects of
migration on indices of school quality and opportunity, or effects of
educational quality as a factor driving or attenuating immigration. However,
the initial results are consistent with the notion that an expectation to
migrate lowers incentives for people to continue their schooling, and that
living in a community with high immigration rates may impact educational
attainment among children and youth (McKenzie and Rapoport, 2006; Miranda,
2007; Massey and Espinosa, 1997). The relationships furthermore suggest that
high migration municipalities may offer fewer schooling opportunities and
lower quality education overall. This raises questions about the degree to
which cycles of migration in these communities may be reinforced because
lower school quality lowers rates of return to schooling for individuals in those
communities, as well as opportunities for future educational advancement.
DIVISIÓN DE ADMINISTRACIÓN PÚBLICA
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J o s é F e l i p e M a r t ín e z , L u c r e c i a S a n t i b á ñ e z y E d s o n S e r v á n
Moreover, high migration communities could have fewer incentives to
pressure educational authorities to improve school quality and opportunity, as
suggested already in these initial analyses, which point to lower levels of
parental involvement and community support for school, lower indices of
school infrastructure, and more school closings in high migration communities.
Thus, as intended, our analysis raise interesting questions for delineating a
framework for studying educational quality and immigration: such framework
should consider that not only individuals may have a lower incentive to
further their schooling, but communities and even authorities may also have a
lower incentive to improve school quality and opportunity. Educational
authorities in particular could see little incentive in improving education in
communities that are experiencing high migration to the US, and
consequently, low levels of demand for quality education. In light of other
research suggesting that immigration is a self-reinforcing, dynamic cycle, our
developing framework would insert educational quality as part of
strengthening cycles of migration funneled by worsening education indicators
and opportunity at home.
Again, these are not findings that we have tested with these models; they are
more aptly conceived as questions and notions that emerge from our analyses,
which in combination with related issues raised by immigration researchers,
can help delineate a framework for studying the relationship between
immigration and school quality. Further analyses with the new wave of data
from the Mexican Family Life Survey and sources that are not publicly
available yet (i.e. INEEs datasets containing data on educational achievement
and detailed information about the school environment and opportunity to
learn) will allow us to test this effect using more rigorous statistical
techniques such as instrumental variables or other models allowing for
endogenous effects.
18
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E x p l o r i n g t h e L i n k s B e t we e n I m m i g r a t i o n a n d E d u c a t i o n a l Q u a l i t y …
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DIVISIÓN DE ADMINISTRACIÓN PÚBLICA
19
Novedades
DIVISIÓN DE ADMINISTRACIÓN PÚBLICA
Laura Sour y Jorge Ortega, Marco institucional formal del FAIS y del FAFM en México,
DTAP-210
Luis F. Luna y José Ramón Gil, Resultados de la “Encuesta sobre gobierno electrónico
y colaboración interorganizacional”…, DTAP-211
José Ramón Gil, Pensamiento sistémico y dinámica de sistemas para el análisis de
políticas públicas…, DTAP-212
Laura Sour, Correspondencia entre las políticas públicas del PND y el gasto ejercido
de la CHPF en México, DTAP-213
José Ramón Gil, Judith Mariscal y Fernando Ramírez, Gobierno electrónico en
México, DTAP-214
Judith Mariscal, José Ramón Gil y Armando Aldama, Políticas de acceso a tecnologías
de la información: El caso de e-México, DTAP-215
Laura Sour y Miguel Ángel Gutiérrez, Extrinsic Incentives and Tax Compliance, DTAP216
Laura Sour y Fredy Girón, The Flypaper Effect in Mexican Local Governments, 19902006, DTAP-217
Judith Mariscal y Fernando Ramírez, Retos para el desarrollo del sector de las
telecomunicaciones en México, DTAP-218
Alejandra Ríos y Juan E. Pardinas, Hacia la reforma constitucional: Las entidades de
fiscalización superior en México, DTAP-219
Laura Sour, Regional Differences in Infrastructure Investment at the State Level in
Mexico, 1998-2005, DTAP-220
DIVISIÓN DE ECONOMÍA
John Scott, Incidencia de las transferencias públicas en el ingreso de los
trabajadores de salario mínimo en México…, DTE-443
John Scott, Evaluación de políticas y programas públicos…, DTE-444
Sonia Di Giannatale, Gian Luca Clementi y Thomas Cooley, A Theory of Firm Decline,
DTE-445
Víctor Carreón y Alfonso Zerón, Innovación de procesos en el costo de generación de
electricidad, DTE-446
Víctor Carreón y Evangelina Dardati, La tarifa de generación en México estimada con
el mecanismo de orden de mérito, DTE-447
Rodolfo Cermeño y Daniel Garrido, Convergencia de las entidades federativas de
México, 1940-2004: un enfoque de series de tiempo, DTE-448
Rodolfo Cermeño y Huver Rivera, La demanda por importaciones y exportaciones:
evidencia de cointegración para México, 1991-2005, DTE-449
Juan Manuel Torres, Octavio S. Magaña y Francisco Moreno, Determinantes del
cambio de uso/cobertura arbolada en México, DTE-450
Juan M. Torres, David B. Bray y Octavio S. Magaña, The Role of Scale in Mexican
Community Forest Management, DTE-451
Richard H. Adams, Jr. and Alfredo Cuecuecha, Remittances, Consumption and
Investment in Ghana, DTE-452
DIVISIÓN DE ESTUDIOS INTERNACIONALES
Jesús Velasco , Lou Dobbs and the Rise of Modern Nativism, DTEI-171
Jorge Schiavon, La diplomacia local del Distrito Federal (2000-2007), DTEI-172
Rafael Velázquez, La proyección internacional de Baja California, DTEI-173
Consuelo Dávila, Jorge Schiavon y Rafael Velázquez, La paradiplomacia de las
entidades federativas en México, DTEI-174
Francisco Javier Aparicio y Covadonga Meseguer, Collective Remittances and the
State: The 3x1 Program in Mexican Municipalities, DTEI-175
Alejandro Anaya, Free Trade, “Spillover” and Human Rights Foreign Policies in
North America, DTEI-176
Alejandro Anaya, Security and Human Rights in Mexico: Do Pressure from Above and
Argumentation Have Anything to Do With It?, DTEI-177
Jorge Chabat, The International Role of Latin America After September 11: Tying
the Giant, DTEI-178
Jorge Chabat, The Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy and Mexico: The Limits to
Unilateralism, DTEI-179
Jorge Chabat, Franchises for Crime: “Maras” and North American Security, DTEI-180
DIVISIÓN DE ESTUDIOS JURÍDICOS
Gustavo Fondevila e Ingram Matthew, Detención y uso de la fuerza, DTEJ-23
Ana Laura Magaloni y Ana María Ibarra Olguín, La configuración jurisprudencial de
los derechos fundamentales…, DTEJ-24
Ana Laura Magaloni, ¿Por qué la Suprema Corte no ha sido un instrumento para la
defensa de derechos fundamentales?, DTEJ-25
Ana Laura Magaloni, Arbitrariedad e ineficiencia de la procuración de justicia: dos
caras de la misma moneda, DTEJ-26
Ana María Ibarra, Los artificios de la Dogmática Jurídica, DTEJ-27
Ana Elena Fierro y Adriana García, Responsabilidad patrimonial del Estado.
Interpretación de la SCJN del artículo 113 constitucional, DTEJ-28
Adriana García y Dirk Zavala, El análisis económico del derecho como herramienta
para el diseño normativo…, DTEJ-29
Carlos Elizondo y Luis Manuel Pérez de Acha, ¿Un nuevo derecho o el debilitamiento
del Estado? Garantía de audiencia previa en la expropiación, DTEJ-30
Ana Elena Fierro y Adriana García, Guía de las decisiones del PJF en materia de
competencia económica: Cómo generar una cultura de la competencia, DTEJ-31
Carlos Elizondo y Ana Laura Magaloni, La depuración de las corporaciones policiacas
y el juicio de amparo, DTEJ-32
Marcelo Bergman y Hernán Flom, Policía y comunidad: una comparación…, DTEJ-33
DIVISIÓN DE ESTUDIOS POLÍTICOS
Joy Langston y Allyson Benton, “A ras de suelo”: Candidate Appearances and Events
in Mexico’s Presidential Campaign, DTEP-199
Gabriel Negretto, The Durability of Constitutions in Changing Environments…, DTEP200
Joy Langston, Hasta en las mejores familias: Madrazo and the PRI in the 2006
Presidential Elections, DTEP-201
Andreas Schedler, Protest Beats Manipulation. Exploring Sources of Interparty
Competition under Competitive and Hegemonic Authoritarianism, DTEP-202
Alejandro Villagómez y Jennifer Farias, Análisis de la evolución de la matrícula de
las licenciaturas en CP, AP y RI en México, 1974-2004, DTEP-203
Julio Ríos Figueroa, Judicial Institutions and Corruption Control, DTEP-204
Allyson Benton, The Effect of Electoral Rules on Indigenous Voting Behavior in
Mexico’s State of Oaxaca, DTEP-205
Andreas Schedler y Cas Mudde, The Quantitative Skeleton of Comparative Politics,
DTEP-206
Joy Langston y Francisco Javier Aparicio, The Past as Future: Prior Political
Experience and Career Choices in Mexico, 1997-2006, DTEP-207
Francisco Javier Aparicio y Sandra Jessica Ley, Electoral Institutions and Democratic
Consolidation in the Mexican States, 1990-2004, DTEP-208
DIVISIÓN DE HISTORIA
Luis Barrón, Revolucionarios sí, pero Revolución no, DTH-44
Ugo Pipitone, Oaxaca: comunidad, instituciones, vanguardias, DTH-45
Luis Barrón, Venustiano Carranza: un político porfiriano en la Revolución, DTH-46
Mauricio Tenorio y Laurencio Sanguino, Orígenes de una ciudad mexicana: Chicago y
la ciencia del Mexican Problem (1900-1930), DTH-47
Rafael Rojas, José María Heredia y la tradición republicana, DTH-48
Rafael Rojas, Traductores de la libertad: el americanismo de los primeros
republicanos, DTH-49
Mónica Judith Sánchez, History vs. the Eternal Present or Liberal Individualism and
the Morality of Compassion and Trust, DTH-50
Luis Medina, Salida: los años de Zedillo, DTH-51
Michael Sauter, The Edict on Religion of 1788 and the Statistics of Public Discussion
in Prussia, DTH-52
Michael Sauter, Conscience and the Rhetoric of Freedom: Fichte’s Reaction to the
Edict on Religion, DTH-53
Ventas
El CIDE es una institución de educación superior especializada particularmente en las disciplinas
de Economía, Administración Pública, Estudios Internacionales, Estudios Políticos, Historia y
Estudios Jurídicos. El Centro publica, como producto del ejercicio intelectual de sus
investigadores, libros, documentos de trabajo, y cuatro revistas especializadas: Gestión y
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