Horsing around
It’s the data that stops the nation
Melbourne Cup is the race that stops the nation. For us, we couldn’t think of a better
analytical challenge than to take on this notoriously unpredictable race.
Whilst some might back their lucky number or favourite colour
– PwC’s Analytics team have consolidated the data (kindly
provided by RacingNetwork.com.au), built the model and applied
our analytical techniques to bring you some great insights for
race day! (Although please don’t take it too seriously!)
Our top 5 performers
Using historic race data (provided by RacingNetwork.com.au), a
combination of techniques, a blend of factors and industry advice
(“don’t try it”), we have produced a list of top performing horses
and some must-know trivia. Enjoy and good luck!
Fun facts
Prize
money
1861
1
$5.9
2
$7.9
#2
Americain
#8
Mount
Athos
3
$7.2
#1
Dunaden
4
$18.4
#17
My Quest
For Peace
5
$22.2
Industry
Experts
wild card
The data and our
model may not rate
Red Cadeaux it highly, but industry
experts fancy this horse.
Lady Luck at play?
4
$18.4
5
$22.2
#2
Americain
#8
Mount
Athos
#10
Ethiopia
#17
My Quest
For Peace
#24
Kelinni
1
$7.9
2
$5.9
3
$7.2
4
$18.4
5
$22.2
#2
Americain
#1
Dunaden
#17
My Quest
For Peace
#24
Kelinni
1
$5.9
2
$7.9
3
$7.2
4
$12.5
5
$18.4
#2
Americain
#8
Mount
Athos
#1
#15
#17
Dunaden Maluckyday My Quest
For Peace
Source: PwC analysis. Data sourced from RacingNetwork.com.au.
All odds as of 7.00am Monday 5th November 2012 and will change.
2010
1. Americain (54.5kg)
2. Maluckyday (51.0kg)
3. So You Think (56.0kg)
W
2011
1. Dunaden (54.5kg)
2. Red Cadeaux (53.5kg)
3. Lucas Cranach (53.5kg)
Caulfield Cup
Winners 2012
Geelong Cup
Winners 2012
1. Dunaden (58kg)
2. Alcopop (52.5kg)
3. Lights of Heaven (53kg)
1. Gatewood (55.5kg)
2. Chateu Marguax (54.0kg)
3. Brigantin (57.5kg)
11%of winners are
N ER
IN
4
WIN
12
ER
#8
Mount
Athos
Previous Winners
N
Big
Race
Form
3
$19.9
Industry
Experts
wild card
Weight
2
$7.9
$
The fastest winning Melbourne cup time was run in
3 minutes, 16.3 seconds by Kingston Rule in 1990
#24
Kelinni
1
$5.9
2012
6,200,000
£1,420
Do you think age, weight or big race form are the most
important qualities to predict a top performer? Have a look at
our top performers weighted towards these following factors.
Age
0
55,00
rs
y
Nearl d fascinato
n
a
h
s
t
or e
hat
ught f
o
b
e
r
we
Cup
2011
The saddlecloth
numbers 4 and 12
have won the Cup a
record 11 times each.
female
What’s in our model?
We tried a range of fancy statistical methodologies including neural networks and other regression techniques to assess
the winning characteristics of a horse, based on their historical performance at similar distance races in Australia. As the
models are based on a range of races, they are not intended to predict the Melbourne Cup winner, but rather to describe
the profile of a winner, and from this rank the potential performance of the starting line up. We hope this light-hearted
analysis gives you some useful insight on the day, but please remember it is just a starting point, to be built on with
judgement and of course, old fashioned good luck!
Prize money versus odds
-
Dark horses
#2 - Americain
#8 - Mount Athos
10
#1 - Dunaden
#17 - My Quest For
Peace
Source: PwC analysis. Data sourced from
RacingNetwork.com.au. All odds as
of 7.00am Monday 5th November 2012
20
Contenders
#24 - Kelinni
(2.0)
-
2.0
30
4.0
6.0
8.0
Overseas Horse
40
Local Horse
50
Making up the numbers
Starting odds
Career prizemoney ($m)
60
Graphing odds against cumulative prize money,
allows us to segment the horses into quadrants.
Low odds and high prize money are the Contenders,
horses with a winning track record, that the bookies
rate. Dark horses are also backed by the bookies,
but are usually younger and have less prize money
in the bag, potential up-and-comers. International
horses can also fall here if there is limited data on
their performance. Watch out for these horses!
Horses with high odds and winnings are probably
just making up the pack. Those with high odds and
high winnings are probably a bit too long in the tooth
from the bookie’s perspective.
Stud farm
Prize money over time
Now for the bit you’ve been waiting for... The disclaimer
This document has been prepared for general
information on matters of interest only, and is not
intended to be taken seriously. PwC does not have any
specialist knowledge of horse racing. This document does
not constitute professional advice and you should not rely
upon the information contained in it. No representation
or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the
accuracy or completeness of the information contained in
this document.
© 2012 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved.
PwC refers to the Australian member firm, and may
sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm
is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/
structure for further details.
For distribution using internet or mobile networks
within Australia only.
For advice and help, visit Gambling Help Online
(www.gamblinghelponline.org.au). Phone 1800 858 858
Source: PwC analysis. Data sourced from
RacingNetwork.com.au. All odds as of Sunday
4th November 2012
It’s important to also consider time as a factor.
How recently did your horse bag most of it’s prize
money? In our graph of cumulative winnings
against time, watch out for those high prize
money horses that might have started to flat line,
potentially past their prime? Also look out for the
dark horses with a strong upturn in their line,
potentially the start of something bigger.
Source: PwC analysis.
Data sourced from RacingNetwork.com.au
8.0
7.0
#1 - Dunaden
6.0
#2 - Americain
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Career Prizemoney ($m)
Think any of this will help you?
Maybe think again...
$100.0
$90.0
$80.0
$70.0
$60.0
$50.0
$40.0
$30.0
$20.0
$10.0
$-
Time
-
2
4
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20
▲ Odds ► Place
This scatter plot of odds against position
for prior Melbourne Cups paints a stark
picture. Generally, the bookies appear to
have it right, given the cluster of points
around low odds and better finishing
positions. However, the spread across the
rest of the graph makes it clear that it is
anyone’s guess really. Horses with odds
at 40:1 have come in at 20th and also 1st.
PwC’s Analytics team
Creating an edge by delivering insights through analysis
If you would like to discuss how you can use analytics to deliver powerful insights to your organisation, please contact:
John Studley, Analytics Alastair Pearson, Analytics
Stuart Shinfield, Analytics
Michael Playford, Actuarial
03 8603 3770
02 8266 5345 02 8266 1382
02 8266 5478
#17 - My Quest
For Peace
#8 - Mount
Athos
#24 - Kelinni
john.w.studley@au.pwc.com
alastair.pearson@au.pwc.com
stuart.shinfield@au.pwc.com
michael.playford@au.pwc.com
Horsing around – It’s the data that stops the nation
Our form guide – for those amongst you who like a little more detail...
Here’s a guide to the history and key facts of the Melbourne Cup starting line up, brought to you by PwC’s Analytics team. We’ve also included our list of top 5 performers,
based on our analysis of what makes a winner. We’ve then varied this analysis to bias our top performers towards a specific factor.
If you think weight, age, big race form are important take a look at these columns.
#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Horse Name
Dunaden
Americain
Jakkalberry
Red Cadeaux
Winchester
Voila Ici
Cavalryman
Mount Athos
Sanagas
Ethiopia
Fiorente
Galileo's Choice
Glencadam Gold
Green Moon
Maluckyday
Mourayan
My Quest for Peace
Niwot
Tac de Boistron
Lights of Heaven
Precedence
Unusual Suspect
Zabeelionaire
Kelinni
Our
Pick
l
l
l
Age
l
l
Big
Race Weight
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
Career
Career
34 : 10-9-7
33 : 11-4-4
25 : 10-2-3
30 : 6-8-5
29 : 6-6-3
32 : 13-6-5
27 : 6-4-3
20 : 7-0-1
15 : 7-1-0
7 : 1-1-2
9 : 2-3-0
16 : 8-4-1
14 : 7-2-1
19 : 6-3-0
17 : 5-3-2
32 : 4-8-5
12 : 5-1-2
32 : 9-4-1
27 : 5-2-2
18 : 6-3-3
44 : 7-5-1
68 : 9-8-6
17 : 3-1-0
18 : 8-3-3
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Wins
S:1-2-3
Starts :
1sts –
2nds – 3rds
Within
3 months
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Total Prize
Money ($)
7,085,611
5,923,677
1,557,283
1,564,214
1,746,235
1,725,792
2,423,688
236,046
288,845
1,131,050
197,111
244,089
474,028
1,185,096
1,304,700
1,505,041
357,347
1,192,825
320,303
1,193,688
1,025,220
1,497,502
575,780
513,002
Over 2,400m
Win
Place
%
%
Starts Wins
29%
76%
22
8
33%
58%
27
10
40%
60%
14
4
20%
63%
26
6
21%
52%
13
3
41%
75%
13
5
22%
48%
19
4
35%
40%
14
6
47%
53%
5
3
14%
57%
2
1
22%
56%
7
1
50%
81%
11
5
50%
71%
5
2
32%
47%
4
29%
59%
7
2
13%
53%
16
1
42%
67%
10
4
28%
44%
11
4
19%
33%
15
3
33%
67%
3
1
16%
30%
16
2
13%
34%
16
2
18%
24%
5
1
44%
78%
5
2
This race
Barrier Horse Age Wgt (kg)
16
7
59.0
12
8
58.0
19
7
55.5
18
7
55.5
22
8
55.5
13
8
55.0
6
7
54.0
8
6
54.0
4
7
54.0
14
4
53.5
2
5
53.5
11
7
53.5
7
5
53.5
5
6
53.5
9
6
53.5
3
7
53.5
1
5
53.5
15
8
53.5
21
6
53.5
17
5
53.0
20
7
53.0
23
9
53.0
24
4
52.0
10
5
51.0
All other
Next
3 months
A full form guide can be found at www.RacingNetwork.com.au
The disclaimer.
This document has been prepared for general information on matters of interest only, and is not intended to be taken seriously. PwC does not have any specialist knowledge of horse racing. This document does not constitute
professional advice and you should not rely upon the information contained in it. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document.
© 2012 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved.
PwC refers to the Australian member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.
For distribution using internet or mobile networks within Australia only.
For advice and help, visit Gambling Help Online (www.gamblinghelponline.org.au). Phone 1800 858 858
And this is where the real fun starts...
PwC’s Analytics team provides a broad range of services to our clients
to deliver insights through analysis.
Commercial
Modelling & Analytics
Uncover insights
from data analytics
to find value
and support
key decisions…
• Customer,
Productivity
& Workforce
Analytics
• Value Innovation
• Predicative
Analytics & Data
Visualisation
• Financial
Modelling
Help you organise
the structured and
unstructured data
you really need…
Economics & Policy
Analysis
Risk Analytics
• Forensic Data
Analytics
• Actuarial & Risk
Quantification
• Data Management
& Remediation
• Audit Insight
Analytics
• Economic
Modelling
• Policy & Program
Review
• Economic
Regulation &
Pricing
• Investment
Decision Support
Business
Intelligence
• Information
Management
Strategy
• Big Data Strategy
• BI Operating
Models
• BI Solution Design
& Implementation
From PwC’s Analytics team
Creating an edge by delivering insights through analysis
If you would like to discuss how you can use analytics to deliver powerful insights to your organisation, please contact:
John Studley, Analytics Alastair Pearson, Analytics
Stuart Shinfield, Analytics
Michael Playford, Actuarial
03 8603 3770
02 8266 5345 02 8266 1382
02 8266 5478
john.w.studley@au.pwc.com
alastair.pearson@au.pwc.com
stuart.shinfield@au.pwc.com
michael.playford@au.pwc.com