Exploring threats to water
in mountain regions with
the European
«ACQWA»
project
Martin Beniston
Head, Geneva Environment Institute
University of Geneva, Switzerland
and coordinator of ACQWA
Martin.Beniston@unige.ch
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Waterloo, March 16, 2009
Overview
Mountains and water
„ Current and future climate (Alps)
„ Potential impacts
„ The
Th EU « ACQWA » Project
P j t
„ Concluding remarks
„
© 2009 Martin Beniston
1
Mountains and water
„ Current and future climate (Alps)
„ Potential impacts
„ What
Wh t ACQWA aims
i
tto achieve
hi
„ ACQWA partners
„
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Mountains as a source of more
th half
than
h lf the
th world’s
ld’ rivers
i
© 2009 Martin Beniston
The Swiss Alps: Europe’s “water
tower
tower”
Rhine
North Sea
67%
%
0 km 50
En / Inn
Black Sea
5%
Rhone
Mediterranean
18%
Ticino
Adriatic
10%
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Precipitation
200
0
Snow,, ice
50 0
100
Evaporation
-50
-100
J F M
Dams
0
0
100 0
100
200
Components of the hydrological cycle under
current climate (mm, Rhone)
A M J J A S O N D
© 2009 Martin Beniston
J F M
A M J J A S O N D
Average monthly discharge (mm, Rhone)
200
100
0
J
F
© 2009 Martin Beniston
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
2
Mountains and water
„ Current and future climate (Alps)
„ Impacts
„ The
Th EU « ACQWA » project
j t
„ Concluding remarks
„
© 2009 Martin Beniston
ΔT com
mpared to 1961-1990 [°C]
1.5
Global
1
Alps
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
1900
1910
© 2009 Martin Beniston
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
vironmental C
Change in Mo
ountains, Arn
nold, London
Benisto
on, 2000: Env
Evolution of global and alpine
temperat res 1901-2000
temperatures,
1901 2000
Changes in water availability for
the Rhône River
mm
500
0
Dams
-500
-1000
-1500
Glaciers
-2000
-2500
2500
-3000
1900
© 2009 Martin Beniston
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Climate futures
5.0
4.0
20
2.0
Mode
erate
emisssions
3.0
Ston
ng
emissiions
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
04
1000 1100
© 2009 Martin Beniston
1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2050 2100
IPCC 20
007
ΔT co
ompared to the 20th century
y [°C]
60
6.0
Changes in temperature by 2100
© 2009 Martin Beniston
4
1961-1990
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
2071-2100 (A2)
-10
10
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 2071 2076 2081 2086 2091 2096
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Beniston, 2
2004: Climatiic Change an
nd Impacts, S
Springer Publlishers
Winter temperatures at Säntis (2,500 m ):
1961
1961-1991
1991
and
2071
2071-2100
2100
°C
Evolution
n glob
bale des pluies
(IPCC
C AR4, 2007)
2
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Beniston, 2006:
Geophysical Research Letters
Changes in seasonal
precipitation
i it ti
P
Precipitat
tion chan
nge
2071
1/2100 vs
s 1961/19
990 [%]
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
20.0
-30.0
-40 0
-40.0
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
3
Mountains and water
„ Current and future climate (Alps)
„ Potential impacts
„ The
Th EU « ACQWA » project
j t
„ Concluding remarks
„
© 2009 Martin Beniston
100
Evaporation
0
0
J F M
200
Precipitation
100
200
Components of the hydrological cycle by 2100
(mm, Rhone)
A M J J A S O N D
© 2009 Martin Beniston
J F M
A M J J A S O N D
Glacier retreat:
Tschierva Glacier
Glacier, Engadine
Co
ourtesy: M
Max Maisch
h
Universsity of Zuriich, Switze
erland
2050?
2000
+3°C?
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Snow and ice
-100
0
100
Components of the hydrological cycle by 2100
(mm, Rhone)
J F M
© 2009 Martin Beniston
A M J J A S O
N D
Grande Dixence, Switzerland
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Dams
-50
0
50
Components of the hydrological cycle by 2100
(mm, Rhone)
J F M
© 2009 Martin Beniston
A M J J A S O
N D
Average discharge by 2100 (mm, Rhone)
Beniston,, 2004:
Climatic Change and Impacts,
Springer Publishers
200
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Enhanced
drought risk
Enhanced
flood risk
100
0
J
F
© 2009 Martin Beniston
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Beniston, 2006:
Geophysical Research Letters
Changes in extreme
precipitation in the Alps
(HIRHAM Regional Climate Model)
20
Nu
umber off events >
50 mm
m/day
1961-1990
2071-2100
10
0
Winter
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Types of floods
in the Alps
Courtesy: Markus Stoffel
Universities of Geneva and Berne
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Vegetation changes, Glacier National Park,
Montana, USA
© 2009 Martin Beniston
© 2009 Martin Beniston
© 2009 Martin Beniston
© 2009 Martin Beniston
© 2009 Martin Beniston
© 2009 Martin Beniston
4
Mountains and water
„ Current and future climate (Alps)
„ Potential impacts
„ The
Th EU « ACQWA » project
j t
„ Concluding remarks
„
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Assessing Climate change impacts on the Quantity and quality of WAter
www acqwa ch
www.acqwa.ch
© 2009 Martin Beniston
EU FP7 1st call (2007)
Pressures on Environment and Climate
1st Call (WP 2007) : 39 M€
The Earth System and
Climate: Functioning &
abrupt changes
The Global Carbon cycle
and GHG budgets
Climate Change Natural and
Socio-economic Impacts
Response strategies;
Adaptation, Mitigation
and Policies
Natural and anthropogenic
emissions and pressures
Climate change impacts
in the Parana-Plata river
basin
CLARIS LPB
Air quality and climate
in megacities:
CITYZEN
MEGAPOLI
Stability of the
Thermohaline
Circulation
THOR
O
Ocean
acidification
idifi ti
EPOCA
37 partners
Budget 6.5 million Euros
2008-2013
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Climate
Cli
t Ch
Change
impacts & adaptation
in water policies
CLIMATEWATER
Climate change impacts on
mountain regions
ACQWA
Full costs of
climate change
CLIMATECOST
Impacts of climate
policies
li i on lland
d use
and ecosystems
CCTAME
ACQWA Project objectives
„
To assess the vulnerability of water resources in
mountain regions where snow and ice is a major
component of the hydrological cycle
‹ Water
in these regions
g
will be vulnerable in a warmer
climate because of reduced volumes of snow and ice
„
The primary objective will be to use, refine, and
develop numerical models to help understand
interlinks between climate system components:
‹ climate,
„
hydrology, cryosphere
To predict the evolution of these systems over the
next 50 years
‹ more
© 2009 Martin Beniston
useful target date than 2100 for water policies
ACQWA Project objectives
„
To assess the potential impacts on:
‹ Extreme
E
events
‹ Energy
‹ Agriculture
‹ Tourism
„
„
To identify possible conflicts of interest among
economic actors, in the context of a resource that
mayy become rarer in a warmer climate
To assess how such conflicts could be resolved
through improved governance
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Case-study regions
„
„
„
Data rich regions
Opportunities to test
g strategies
g
and
modeling
integration of results
Possibilities of
g
g socioinvestigating
economic issues
‹
„
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Energy, tourism,
agriculture
Access to
A
t information
i f
ti
for assessing
governance and forward
planning
Aconcagua
b i (Chil
basin
(Chile))
„
Major supply
problems in a matter
of decades:
‹
„
Exacerbation of an
already competitive
situation for water
between sectors:
‹
Santiago
‹
‹
© 2009 Martin Beniston
The essential source
of water comes from
rapidly dwindling icep on the Andes
caps
Agriculture
Energy
Mi i
Mining
Kyrgyzstan
y gy
„
New opportunities
N
t iti
over the next
century and beyond
because of the
large volume of ice
remaining
‹
‹
‹
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Development
e e op e t o
of
hydro-power
Foreign income from
sales of energy to
neighbors (e.g.,
(e g to
Russia)
Possible
development of
agriculture for export
ACQWA Project Flowchart
WP1:
Management
WP1:
Management
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WP2:
Drivers
of change
WP2:
Drivers
of change
Climatic
change
Other socio
socio - economic
economic
Other
drivers
drivers
WP3: Modeling methods to
assess future changes,
including extremes
Regional
climate
Regional
g
climate models
models
Cryosphere
models
Cryosphere models
Biosphere
models
Biosphere
models
Hydrological
Hydrological models
models
The image cannot be display ed. Your computer may not hav e enough memory to open the image, or the image may hav e been corrupted. Restart y our computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, y ou may hav e to delete the image and then insert it again.
Influence of
policies on
climate
Water quality
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WP5:
Education
and
WP5:
Education
outreach
outreach
and
Model
outputs
WP4:
Impacts,
adaptation
WP4:
Impacts,
adaptation
and
and policy
policy
Snow
Snow
and
and ice; natural hazards
hazards
;
ecosystems ; biodiversity ; hydropower ;
tourism
; agriculture; forestry
forestry ;; health
tourism
; agriculture;
health
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Water quantity
Swiss partners
11 groups
groups, 5 institutions
AGROSCOPE
Reckenholz
U of Berne
HEID
2 partners
U of Geneva
Coordination
+ 4 partners
© 2009 Martin Beniston
ETH-Zürich
3 partners
European partners
22 institutions
institutions, 6 countries
U of Dundee
MPI, Hamburg
U of Birmingham
CESI-Ricerca
Val d’Aosta + Politecnico
Milano
(4 partners)
CNRS
Paris/Bellevue
(3 partners)
CEN
+ CEA
+ CNRS
Grenoble
CSIC, Zaragoza
BOKU Vi
Vienna
U of Graz
ICTP, Trieste
ARPA
ENEL
+ ISAC-CNR
(Torino)
© 2009 Martin Beniston
U of L’Aquila
Partners outside of Europe
Chile 2 Argentina
Chile-2,
Argentina-1,
1 Central Asia
Asia-1
1
CEAZA
(Arid Zones Research)
La Serena,
Serena Chile
CECS
(Cryosphere
Research)
Valdivia, Chile
© 2009 Martin Beniston
IITD
(Water Governance)
Buenos Aires, Argentina
KNAS
(National Academy of Science)
Bischkek, Kyrgyzstan
5
Mountains and water
„ Current and future climate (Alps)
„ Potential impacts
„ The
Th EU « ACQWA » project
j t
„ Concluding remarks
„
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Snow and ice in mountains:
expect major hydrology impacts in a warmer climate!
„
„
Snow and ice in many mountain regions are dominant
f t
factors
that
th t control
t l runoff
ff characteristics
h
t i ti ffor numerous
river catchments
Shifts in temperature and precipitation regimes could
significantly
i ifi
tl modify
dif th
the b
behavior
h i off th
the mountain
t i snow
pack, thus changing:
‹
‹
„
the seasonal character of runoff
the timing of the peak flow
Changing water amount will have numerous impacts:
‹
‹
‹
‹
‹
Tourism
Energy
Agriculture
Mining
Natural hazards
)
Insurance sector
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Originalities of the
ACQWA Project
„
„
Water as a measure of vulnerability of regions to
climatic change
Truly integrated model simulations rather than a
juxtaposition of sector-by-sector simulations
‹ Building
„
„
„
better bridges across the disciplines
Enhanced knowledge on extreme events
Understanding the mechanisms underlying
conflicting uses of water
How to improve policy approaches through more
efficient governance
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Exploring threats to water
in mountain regions with
the European
«ACQWA»
project
Many thanks for your attention
Martin.Beniston@unige.ch
www.unige.ch/climate
www.acqwa.ch
© 2009 Martin Beniston
Waterloo, March 16, 2009
ACQWA Partners
„
Switzerland
‹
U of Geneva, Coordination
)
‹
‹
„
Baseline climates of the past
ETH-Zurich
)
‹
Energy, Aquatic Biology, UNEP-GRID,
Climate Research
U of Bern
)
‹
Agroscope Federal Agricultural
Research
HEID Graduate Institute for
International Research and
Development (2 entities)
‹
‹
‹
‹
‹
‹
‹
‹
ICTP, Trieste
U of L’Aquila
ARPA Piemonte + Val d’Aosta
Fondazione Montana Sicura
ENEL
CVA
Parco Nazionale Gran Paradiso
Monterosastar
ISAC-CNR
© 2009 Martin Beniston
France
‹
‹
„
„
‹
‹
CEAZA, La Serena
CECS
Argentina
‹
„
CSIC Z
Zaragoza
Chile
‹
„
U of Birminham
U of Dundee
Spain
‹
„
U of Graz
UK
‹
„
Max-Planck Institute, Hamburg
Austria
‹
„
CNRS (3 entities)
U Joseph Fourier, Grenoble
Germany
‹
Hydrology, Glaciology, Forest Science
Italy
‹
„
IITD
Kyrgyzstan
‹
Academyy of Sciences, Bishkek