Joint UNECE-UNCTAD Workshop:
Climate Change Impacts on International
Transport Networks
08 September 2010, Geneva
Climate Change and transportation:
the scientific basis
Presentation by
Mr. Martin Beniston
University of Geneva
This expert paper is reproduced by the UNCTAD secretariat in the form and language in which it has been received.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the view of the United Nations.
Climatic change and transportation:
the scientific basis
Overview
Anthropogenic climate change
„ Climate projections to 2100
„ Impacts relevant for the transport sector
„ Conclusions
„
Martin Beniston
University of Geneva
Martin.Beniston@unige.ch
© 2010 Martin Beniston
UNECE-UNCTAD Conference, 08.09.2010
© 2010 Martin Beniston
IPCC, 2007
1
Anthropogenic climate change
„ Climate projections to 2100
„ Impacts relevant for the transport sector
„ Conclusions
CO2 and CH4 concentrations
CH4 ppbv
CO2 ppmv
„
350
1500
300
1000
500
250
10’000
© 2010 Martin Beniston
Atmosphere
5’000
0
Years before present
10’000
5’000
0
Years before present
© 2010 Martin Beniston
The greenhouse
effect
CO2 emissions in the
United States, by sector (2008)
%
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
CO2, CH4, H2O
CFC, N2O, …
© 2010 Martin Beniston
Residential
Agriculture
Commercial
Transportation
Industry
Electricity
© 2010 Martin Beniston
1
IPCC 2007
Why human activities are
partially responsible …
2
ΔT compared to
1961-1990 [°C]
Observations
1.0
Anthropogenic climate change
„ Climate projections to 2100
„ Impacts relevant for the transport sector
„ Conclusions
„
Natural Forcings
Natural + Anthropogenic Forcings
0.5
0.0
1900
2000
1950
© 2010 Martin Beniston
© 2010 Martin Beniston
Climate futures
Warming by 2100 (IPCC A-2 Scenario)
Stong
emissions
5.0
4.0
Moderate
emissions
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2050 2100
© 2010 Martin Beniston
IPCC 2007
ΔT compared to the 20th century [°C]
6.0
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
ΔT compared
to 1961-1990 [°C]
© 2010 Martin Beniston
Precipitation change by 2100
3
Anthropogenic climate change
„ Climate projections to 2100
„ Impacts relevant for the transport sector
„ Conclusions
„
© 2010 Martin Beniston
© 2010 Martin Beniston
2
New coastal geography in the US Gulf
States: sea-level rise and storm surges
Moderate storminess
Strong
storminess
Mid-latitude
storms
1m
2m
Charleston
4m
Tampa/
St Petersburg
New Orleans
Miami
Fort Myers
2071-2100
1961-1990
© 2010 Martin Beniston
© 2010 Martin Beniston
Tropical storms
Cat 4
Cat 3
Cat 5
120
1961-1990
80
2071-2100
40
0
960
940
920
900
880
Pressure at center of system [hPa]
© 2010 Martin Beniston
K. Emmanuel, Science: 2006
Number of events
160
New navigation routes in
the Arctic
By 2050
© 2010 Martin Beniston
4
Anthropogenic climate change
„ Climate projections to 2100
„ Impacts relevant for the transport sector
„ Conclusions
Outlook for
the transport sector
„
„
„
„
Transport is particularly sensitive to extremes of
weather that could increase in a future, warmer,
climate
Positive changes can also be anticipated, such
as longer periods without frost or snow that
today often lead to disruptions and accidents
The evolution of the transportation sector is
highly dependent on changes in other sectors of
the economy
‹ As
a result, climate impacts on transportation may be
less important than structural changes in
transportation systems in the future
© 2010 Martin Beniston
© 2010 Martin Beniston
3
Climatic change and transportation:
the scientific basis
MANY THANKS FOR
YOUR ATTENTION!
Martin.Beniston@unige.ch
www.unige.ch/climate
© 2010 Martin Beniston
UNECE-UNCTAD Conference, 08.09.2010
4