CHANGES IN RAINFALL AND WATER AVAILABILITY ON ISLA ISABELA, GULF OF CALIFORNIA AMY ENGLEBRECHT (1), B. LYNN INGRAM (1), ROGER BYRNE (2), ULRIKE KIENEL (3), HARALD BOEHNEL (4), AND GERALD HAUG (3) (1) Dept. of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley CA (2) Dept. of Geography, University of California, Berkeley CA (3) Dept. of Climate Dynamics and Sediments, GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam Germany (4) Centro de Geociencias, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Querétaro Mexico RESULTS LOCATION AND BACKGROUND Isla Isabela (Fig. 1) is located in the precipitation region of the Mexican Monsoon (also called the North American Monsoon), a pronounced maximum in rainfall that occurs during the warm season over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States (Fig. 2). Changes in the strength and timing of the monsoon are frequently associated with floods and droughts, and at the most arid sites in this region, the interannual variability of summer climate can be larger than the mean summer rainfall itself (Higgins et al. 1998). Fig. 2. The region around Isla Isabela is characterized as mostly arid to semi-arid, and Isabela receives approximately 75% of its annual precipitation in July, August, and September. Fig. 3. Sediments are comprised of alternating organic- and clay-rich intervals (core-top shown here). The organic-rich layers are olive green to brown in color and contain abundant diatoms and phytoplankton. The clay-rich intervals are dark gray to black in color. In addition, discrete layers of calcite (2-5 mm thick) are present, centered at 11, 20, 37, 41, 52, and 56 cm. From Alcocer et al., 1998 Fig. 1. Isla Isabela (21°52'N, 105°54'W) is a small volcanic island located approximately 30 km off the Mexican state of Nayarit. Closed basin lakes, like the crater lake found on Isla Isabela, are sensitive to changes in precipitation/evaporation ratios, and the properties of their sediments record changes in effective moisture through time. The analyses of stable isotopes of oxygen (O-18 and O-16) and carbon (C-13 and C-12) in authigenic carbonate are well-established proxy techniques and the ratios of the stable isotopes can be very responsive to those changes in effective moisture. Fig. 4. Short cores from Isabela show coherent periodicities in the carbon and oxygen isotopic composition of bulk inorganic carbonate. Most notably, strong excursions in carbon isotopes and calcite deposition (*) occur with some frequency throughout the record. Fig. 5. An initial varve count indicates that the carbonate layers coincide with periods of drought found in other paleoclimate records in northern Mexico (see Table 1). Table 1. Some paleo and historical records of relative dry (shaded) and wet periods in northern Mexico. Fig. 6. Carbon and oxygen isotopes appear to alternate between in phase (shaded) and out of phase variation. These periods are roughly coincident with dry and wet periods recorded in other paleoclimate proxies from northern Mexico (see Table 1). A Fig. 7. During in phase periods (shaded in Fig. 6), carbon and oxygen isotopes correlate with an r2 = 0.33 (A). Out of phase periods have r2 < 0.01 (B). DISCUSSION δ18O (‰) METHODS Winter Sediment cores were taken from the center of Isabela crater lake by U. Kienel and H. Boehnel. The coring was accomplished with a modified Livingston Corer equipped with plastic (butyrate) liners. Two adjacent cores were taken, allowing overlap between them. The longer of the two cores spans 0-66 cm, the other covers 0-52 cm. Cores were sampled at intervals of 1 cm, and samples were wet sieved with a 125 µm screen and washed onto filter paper. Samples were then dried at 70°C overnight and bulk inorganic carbonate was analyzed for stable isotopic (oxygen and carbon) composition. Samples were analyzed on a GV Isoprime irMS located in the Ingram Lab of UC Berkeley. The internal precision of both δ 13C and δ18O measurements is 0.03 and 0.05 per mil, respectively. The external precision is < 0.1%. REFERENCES Alcocer, J. et al., 1998. Isabela crater-lake: a Mexican insular saline lake. Hydrobiologia 381: 1–7. Cleaveland, M.K. et al., 2003. Tree-ring reconstructed winter precipitation and tropical teleconnections in Durango, Mexico. Climatic Change 59: 369-388. Diaz, S.C. et al., 2002. Chihuahua (Mexico) winter-spring precipitation reconstructed from tree-rings, 1647-1992. Climate Research 22: 237-244. Diaz, S.C. et al., 2001. A tree-ring reconstruction of past precipitation for Baja California Sur, Mexico. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1007-1019. Garcia, S.J., 2000. Analisis de vulnerabilidad agropecuaria por sequia en el estado de Chihuahua. Instituto de Ecologia, Jalapa, Veracruz. Available at www.sequia.edu.mx/proyectos/vulnera Higgins, R.W. et al., 1998. Interannual variability of the U.S. summer precipitation regime with emphasis on the southwestern monsoon. Journal of Climate 11: 2582-2606. Metcalfe, S.E. et al., 2000. Records of Late Pleistocene-Holocene climatic change in Mexico—a review. Quaternary Science Reviews 19: 699-721. Stahle, D.W. and Cleaveland M.K., 1993. Southern Oscillation extremes reconstructed from tree rings of the Sierra Madre Occidental and southern Great Plains. Journal of Climate 6: 129-140. Stahle, D.W. et al., 1999. Tree-ring reconstruction of winter and summer precipitation in Durango, Mexico, for the past 600 years. In: 10th Symp Global Change Studies, 10-15 January 1999. American Meteorological Society, Dallas, 205-211. Swan, S.L., 1981. Mexico in the Little Ice Age. Journal of Interdisciplinary History 11(4): 633-648. B In this lake it appears that the ratio of the stable isotopes of carbon is controlled by the biogenic calcium carbonate contribution, leading to an increase in the heavier isotope (C-13) during drier periods, and vice versa. The ratio of the stable isotopes of oxygen appears to be primarily controlled by the source of the precipitation as well as evaporation occurring within the basin. Generally, shifts to drier climate and increased evaporation lead to a relative increase in the heavier isotope (O-18), and vice versa. During dry periods, evaporation may dominate the system, with an annual average oxygen isotope value that is enriched relative to rainfall, and abiogenic calcium carbonate deposition. Both would lead to more positive isotopic values (Fig. 6, shaded). Summer From http://isohis.iaea.org From Metcalfe et al., 2000 Fig. 8. Oxygen isotopes in precipitation vary by up to ~5 per mil between winter and summer in northern Mexico. A particularly strong gradient exists during winter from northwest to southeast Mexico. So during the 1982-83 El Niño year, for example, when more abundant precipitation occurred later in the calendar year, the δ18O lake potentially reflected the winter circulation and a northwesterly source of winter precipitation. Conversely, during normal/wet periods, the system may be source dominated, leading to an oxygen isotope value that more closely reflects that of rainfall and biogenic calcium carbonate deposition. Because the oxygen isotopes of precipitation in this region vary quite widely over the seasons (~5 per mil), the source effect on the oxygen isotopes would depend on the prevailing seasonal circulation and storm track (Fig. 8).