Analysis of a 30 Percent by 2030
National Renewable Electricity Standard
Alison Bailie, Steve Clemmer, and Jeff Deyette
May 12, 2015
Photo: iStock
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists
www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES.pdf
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UCS Analysis of a National RES
• Examines the impact of a 30% by 2030 national
Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) on the U.S.
electricity sector
• Uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)
model developed by the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory
• Modifies some cost and performance assumptions of
energy technologies based on project-specific data and
recent studies*
*For more information, see technical appendix at www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalREStechappendix.pdf
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES.pdf
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Modeling Scenarios
Business as Usual scenario that assumes no new state or federal policies
beyond those which existed at the end of 2014
30 percent by 2030 RES scenario modeled after S. 1264, co-sponsored
by Senators Udall and Markey and several others. Key provisions
include:
– Annual targets start at 7.5% in 2015, and ramp up gradually hitting 12%
in 2020, 20% in 2025, and 30% in 2030
– Obligated utilities include investor-owned utilities with annual sales
greater than 1 million MWh
– All municipal utilities and rural electric cooperatives are exempt
– Existing hydropower and municipal solid waste generation are excluded
from baseline electricity sales; in calculating annual obligations
– Compliance demonstrated through national renewable energy credit
tracking and trading system
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES
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Key Takeaways
30% by 2030 National RES is achievable
and provides important consumer,
economic, and climate benefits:
• $25.1 billion (0.5%) in cumulative
savings on consumer electricity and
natural gas bills from 2015-2030
• $294 billion in cumulative new capital
investments from 2015-2030; $106
billion more than business as usual
• 10.8% reduction in power sector CO2
emissions in 2030
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists
www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES.pdf
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A 30 Percent by 2030 National RES is Affordable
Average Retail Electricity Prices
Maximum 0.2%
increase in electricity
prices (in 2028)
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES.pdf
Slightly higher costs of
investing in renewable
energy is largely offset by
reductions in fossil fuel
costs, leading to electricity
prices that are virtually
unchanged from 20152030 between Business as
Usual and the 30 percent
by 2030 RES.
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Prioritizing Renewable Energy Reduces
Natural Gas Prices
Average Power Sector Natural Gas Prices
7.8% decrease in
natural gas prices
in 2030
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES.pdf
By increasing competition
and diversifying power
supplies, a 30% by 2030
national RES helps lower
natural gas prices for the
power sector and
consumers.
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Increasing renewable energy can provide modest
savings on combined consumer energy bills*
•
$25.1 billion (0.5%) in cumulative savings
on consumer electricity and natural gas
bills from 2015-2030
•
For a typical household, $0.72 in higher
annual electricity bills in 2020, and $1.69
higher in 2030
•
For the nearly 50% of U.S. homes that
heat with natural gas, typical annual
natural gas bills are $10.11 lower in
2020, and $37.50 lower in 2030
© iStockphoto/pawel.gaul
*Cumulative results are NPV 2013$ using a 6.24% discount rate. A typical household is assumed to consume 600
kWh/month, and homes that primarily use natural gas for heat consume 6.37 MMBTU/month.
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES.pdf
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A national RES diversifies the power supply and helps
reduce the risks of overreliance on natural gas
Electricity Generation Mix
Compared with
business as usual in
2030:
- 57% more
renewable energy
generation
- 27% less natural
gas generation
- 6% cut in coal
generation
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES.pdf
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A national RES spurs greater investments in renewable
energy, primarily wind and solar
Renewable Energy Development
27.3 GW more solar
power capacity by 2030
79.7 GW more wind
power capacity by 2030
*Existing hydropower generation is eligible as an exclusion from baseline electricity sales for obligated power providers in
calculating their annual renewable energy generation target.
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES.pdf
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Renewable energy development drives
economic benefits*
•
$294 billion in cumulative new capital
investments from 2015-2030; $106 billion
more than business as usual
•
Nearly $4.3 billion in annual operation and
maintenance payments in 2030
•
$2.6 billion in cumulative property taxes
paid to local governments from 2015-2030
•
$830 million in cumulative wind power land
lease payments to rural landowners from
2015-2030
*All results reflect net economic benefits of 30% by 2030 national RES compared with Business as Usual. Cumulative results
are NPV 2013$ using a 6.24% discount rate. Property tax payments are assumed to total 0.41% of capital investment
cumulatively. Land lease payments are assumed to be $3,000/MW/year.
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES.pdf
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Investing in Renewable Energy Cuts Carbon
Power Sector CO2 Emissions
10.8% reduction in
power sector CO2
emissions compared
with Business as
Usual in 2030
-
More than one-third of
emission cuts required
under the Clean Power
Plan by 2030
-
$12.7 billion in net
societal benefits* in
2030 from reducing
CO2 emissions
-
1.5 billion fewer metric
tons of CO2 emissions
cumulative from 20152030
*Based on the U.S. government’s estimates for the social costs of carbon, which includes the dollar damages to public
health and the environment caused by emission of an additional metric ton of CO2 in a given year.
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES.pdf
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For more information,
please contact:
Alison Bailie
Energy Modeler
abailie@ucsusa.org
Steve Clemmer
Energy Research Director
sclemmer@ucsusa.org
Jeff Deyette
Senior Energy Analyst
jdeyette@ucsusa.org
© 2015 Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org/30by2030nationalRES.pdf
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