World Economic and Social Survey
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Annual flagship report of the UN Department for
Economic and Social Affairs
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Trends and policies in the world economy
Selected issues on the development agenda
2004 Survey full text available at
www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/index.html
1
World Economic and Social Survey 2004
International Migration
CONTENTS
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Historical background
Trends in international migration
National Migration policies
Economic effects in countries of origin and destination
Social effects in countries of origin and destination
Multilateral policy initiatives
Towards improved cooperation
2
Migration during the
‘first global century’ (1820-1914)
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Creation of the “Greater Atlantic Economy”
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Migration among “developing” countries
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Large migration of surplus labour from the “old world” to the “new
world”
Convergence in wages between the two areas
Migration policies became increasingly restrictive since late 19th
century
Mostly contract labour producing primary commodities
High costs and relative immobility of labour deterred independent
migration
Declined because of fall in export prices of primary commodities
These 2 migration flows ran parallel to each other, due to
discrimination in newly settled areas against Asian migrants
3
Differences between the two periods of
migration
Current period
‘First global century’
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Migration mainly within developed
world
Export of surplus labour
from Europe
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Few restrictions on
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immigration of European population
Large impact on population growth
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of destination countries
Convergence of income
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Segmentation of migration flows
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became source of North-South
inequalities
Migration mainly from developing to
developed countries
Developing countries have more
surplus labour than developed
countries can absorb
National immigration policies in
place
Neglible impact on population growth
Little impact on income convergence
Segmentation based on skills
4
Other features of current period
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The net direction of migration in individual countries
has experienced important changes in the second
half of the 20th century
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Only 7 countries of stable net immigration
Only 16 countries of stable net emigration
For 86 countries net migration ‘changed sign’
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New phenomenon of unauthorized migration, and
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Involuntary displacements
5
International migrants in the main countries
and regions of destination
Share
Percentage of migrants in population
30
25
20
1910
15
10
5
0
1960
2000
Traditional
countries of
immigration
Argentina &
Uruguay
Western Europe
6
International migrants in the main countries
and regions of destination
2000
16.3
29.5
Africa
Asia
43.8
Latin America & Car.
Northern America
32.8
Oceania
5.9
5.8
40.8
Europe
USSR (former)
7
millions
International migrants by region of
destination
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1960
1980
2000
World
Developed
countries
Developed
countries
excl. USSR
Developing
countries
8
Demographic impact
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Developing countries:
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Small impact on population growth in developing
countries
Developed countries:
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Migration partially offsets natural population decline
Level of migration needed to maintain potential
support ratio unlikely to be sustainable
Ageing population requires comprehensive strategy
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Reassess retirement and retirement benefits
Increase labour force participation of working age population
Increase migration flows, particularly temporary
9
Contribution of net international migration to
population change
10
Projections of net immigration for selected
countries or regions, 2000-2050
Scenario A
United States
European Union
1115
680
Thousands
Scenario B
128
949
Scenario C
359
1588
Scenario D
11851
13480
Scenario A: Migration at levels of late 1990s.
Scenario B: Maintaining size of total population.
Scenario C: Maintaining size of total working population.
Scenario D: Maintaining potential support ratio.
11
Unauthorized migration
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New phenomenon of massive unauthorized
migration result of restrictive policies in
receiving countries
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Estimates for USA: around 7 million
unauthorized migrants in 2000 (v. 35 million
foreign residents)
Western Europe about 3.3 million in 2000 (v. 22
million foreign residents)
US$ 10 billion trafficking and smuggling business
12
Involuntary international displacements
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Number of
refugees in
developing
countries
stabilized during
1991-1995 and
fell to some 8
million during
1996-2000
In developed
countries the
refugee
population
doubled from
1.7 million in
1980s to about
3.4 million in
1990s
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Economic effects of migration
on countries of origin
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Positive
Opens employment
opportunities not available
in the home country
May ease pressures on the
domestic labour market
Stimulus to invest in human
capital
Inflows of remittances
Inflows of technology,
skills, investment and
venture capital from
diasporas
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Negative
Immediate impact of loss of
skilled workers in key sectors
Loss of fiscal revenue from
higher income workers
Reduced return on public
investment in education
Remittances diminish over
time
Long-term effect of loss of
human capital on growth
14
Impact of loss of skilled workers in key
sectors
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Brain drain is a growing trend in global economy.
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Stock of highly skilled migrants in USA increased from 1.7
million in 1990 to 4.2 million in 2000.
Each migrating African professional represents a loss of
$184,000 to Africa.
Potential income tax revenue loss to India of $700 million, or
12% of the country’s personal income tax revenue.
15
Inflow of remittances by region,
1980 and 2002
(billions of US dollars)
60.0
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$79 billion to
developing
countries
Second largest
financial inflow
EU largest
source, followed
by USA, Middle
East
More stable than
most inflows
Used for
consumption
Not a substitute
for ODA.
52.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
1980
27.3
26.9
2002
20.0
16.8
10.3
10.0
6.8
6.6
4.5
1.9
5.8 5.7
4.1
1.4 2.0
0.0
Latin
America
and the
Caribbean
Northern
Africa
SubSaharan
Africa
Eastern &
Southern
Asia
Western
Asia
Economies Developed
in Transition countries
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Many of the largest recipients have been
large middle-income countries….
10 large s t de ve loping-country re cipie nts of re m ittance s , 2002 (Billions of US dollars )
12
11
10
8.4
8
7.4
6
3.6
4
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.4
2.4
B razil
Colombia
2.2
2
0
M exico
India
Philippines
Pakist an
Egypt
M orocco
B angladesh
Dominican
Republic
17
…. but, as a proportion of GDP, remittances
have been most significant for small lowincome countries
10 de ve loping countrie s w ith large s t ratios of re m ittance s to GDP, 2002 (pe rce ntage )
30
25
25
23
20
17
16
16
15
15
15
14
13
12
10
5
0
Lesot ho
Jordan
M o ld ova
Jamaica
A lb ania
B osnia &
Herzego vina
Nicaragua
El Salvado r
Cap e V erd e
Y emen
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Economic effects of migration
on destination countries
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Increase supply of labour
But also contribute to economic growth, and
thus the demand for labour
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Small impact on wages and employment
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Net contributors to fiscal balance
19
Modest impact on wages and employment in
host countries
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900,000 people returned from Algeria to France (1962)
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600,000 colonist returned to Portugal (1974)
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No impact on labour market was found
125,000 Cubans entered Miami (1980)
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Increasing labour force by 1.6%. One percentage point increase in labour force
reduced the wage by at most 0.8% and raised the unemployment rate of
natives by 0.2 percentage points
Only Cubans were negatively affected, possibly because new migrants were
earning less and were subject to higher unemployment, thus lowering the
average figures for Cubans
600'000 highly educated migrants moved former USSR to Israel (1989-1995)
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Increasing population by 13.6%, but no sizable impact on the labour market
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Social integration of migrants
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Migrants affect social fabric in host societies
Migrants enrich destination communities, but are
also a source of discomfort and division
Harmful public perceptions, reinforced by media
Two basic approaches: assimilation versus
multiculturalism
Networks of migrants are valuable source of
support
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Current policies in countries of destination
Immigration policies
became increasingly
restrictive since mid1970’s
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Selectivity with
focus on
number and
composition of
immigrants
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Family
reunification
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Skills
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Focus on
integration of
immigrants
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Agenda for countries of origin
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Eliminate smuggling and trafficking of
migrants
Support hometown associations, business
and academic networks
Facilitate return migration
Allow dual citizenship
Address consequences of brain drain
Reduce transaction costs of remittances
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Agenda for countries of destination
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Eliminate smuggling and trafficking of migrants
Public campaigns to explain benefits of immigration
Protection by national legislation
Measures to facilitate integration
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Allow transfer of retirement benefits across countries
Recognition of educational and professional qualifications
Education and labour training
Naturalization and voting rights
Greater use of temporary immigration (seasonal
workers, WTO-Mode IV)
Fair processing of asylum claims
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International policy initiatives
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Complement national migration policies
„ Increased bilateral arrangements, including on issues of
temporary migration, control of irregular migration, border
management, return migration, and management of remittances.
„ Regional dialogues: free movement of persons and workers
among EU member states, Migration Dialogue for Southern Africa,
Manila and Bali Processes in Asia, and Puebla and Lima Processes
in Latin America.
„ Limited coverage of existing multilateral conventions.
Need for a comprehensive institutional framework addressing full
spectrum of international migration issues
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Legal instruments relevant to international
migration
Year adopted
Number of
countries
ratified
of which: Countries with net
immigration at the time of
ratification (%)
ILO Covention - Migration for employment
1949
42
28.6
ILO Convention - Migrations in abusive conditions and
promotion of equality of opportunity and treatment of migrants
1975
18
44.4
International Convention on protection of the rights of all
migrants
1990
26
7.7
Protocol on trafficking persons, especially children and women
2000
54
29.6
Protocol against smuggling of migrants
2000
48
29.2
1951 Convention relating to status of refugees
1951
142
27.5
1967 Protocol relating to the status of refugees
1967
141
33.3
INSTRUMENT
MIGRANT WORKERS
SMUGGLING & TRAFFICKING
REFUGEES
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Towards improved international
cooperation on migration
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Well-managed migration can be mutually advantageous
Integrate migration policy into development policy
Improve conditions and opportunities for potential migrants
Improve international reporting on migration flows
Prepare national reports on international migration
Improve multilateral cooperation
Endorse existing international conventions and protocols
Global Commission on International Migration
UN GA High-level dialogue in 2006
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