NILU, November 4 2009
Kristin Aunan
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research
– Oslo (CICERO) and Dept of Chemistry UiO
Environmental impact assessment and costbenefit analyses
Co-control of air pollution and global warming components – ‘co-benefits’
Solid household fuels and environmental impacts
1

1. Environmental impact assessment and cost-benefit analyses
• SEPA/World Bank
• Goal: To estimate the costs of air and water pollution in China
• The national team: SEPA and affiliates (Chinese Academy for
Environmental Planning, Policy
Research Center of Environment and Economy, the China National
Environment Monitoring Center), the Ministry of Water Resources
(MWR), Ministry of Health (MoH),
CDC
• International team:World Bank, RFF
(USA), ECON Pöyry, CICERO
2

Main results of SEPA/WB project (in billion RMB)
Physical Burden
Economic
Burden
(Low)
Health Impacts
Non-Health Impacts of Water
Pollution
Outdoor Air Pollution Mortality
Outdoor Air Pollution
Morbidity
Water Pollution Mortality and
Morbidity
Water Scarcity
Crop Loss (from Waste Water
Irrigation)
Fishery Loss
394,000 Premature
Deaths
[135,000, 628,000]
305,000 Chronic
Bronchitis Cases
[266,000, 342,000]
9 million Diarrhea episodes; 14,000
Diarrhea Deaths
Other health effects exist but could not be quantified due to lack of exposure data.
74 Billion m 3 of water depletion and pollution
Wheat 4463Tonne
Rice 7339 Tonne
Corn 62,505 Tonne
Vegetable 560,771
Tonne
1274 fishery pollution accidents
111
[35.8, 179]
46.4
[39.0, 53.2]
4.4
147
[95, 199]
6.7
4.3
Non-Health Impacts of Air
Pollution
Crop Loss (from Acid Rain)
Rice 15.4 Million Tonne
Wheat 16.3 Million
Tonne
Rape 3.6 Million Tonne
Cotton 0.6 Million
Tonne
Soya bean 3.6 Million
Tonne
Vegetable 203 Million
Tonne
30
Material Damage 13.6 Billion m2
Total
6.7
356.5
Share of GDP
0.82%
0.34%
Economic Burden
(High) 2
Share of
GDP
394
[136,641]
126
[108, 142]
2.9%
0.93%
0.03%
1.1%
0.05%
0.03%
0.22%
0.05%
2.64%
14.2
147
[95, 199]
6.7
4.3
30
6.7
728.9
0.11%
1.1%
0.05%
0.03%
0.22%
0.05%
5.40%
3

CICERO: Quantifying health and environmental damage from air pollution
4

2. Co-control of air pollution and global warming components – co-benefits
• Source link: CO
2 the same sources and the main air pollutants have
• Air pollutants as a climate
forcing (especially tropospheric ozone and particles)
• Chemistry links: Some air pollutants affect the lifetimes of GHGs
5

Top-down study: Costs of a CO
2 tax in China using macroeconomic model (CGE), accounting for health and agricultural co-benefits and distributional effects
(with the Development Research Center of the State
Council)
Semi-bottom-up study:
Energy saving and clean coal technologies in Shanxi province:
CO
2 reductions and health co-benefits
(ECON/CICERO/Taiyuan Univ of Techn)
Bottom-up study:
‘Cleaner Production’ projects in Taiyuan:
CO
2 reductions and health co-benefits
(ECON/CICERO/Taiyuan Univ of Techn)
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1.
Implementing a CO health benefits
2 tax in China:
Welfare analysis for 2010 including
1000
500
Health benefit
0
0
-500
-1000
-1500
5 10 15
Welfare cost
20 25
Net benefit
30
CO
2 reduction from 2010 baseline (%)
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…and avoided crop loss due to reduced surface ozone
(NOx- ozone –crop link)
1000
500
0
0
-500
-1000
-1500
5 10 15
Welfare cost
Health benefit
20
’No regrets’ CO
2 abatement: 15% - 20%
25 30
Net benefit
CO
2 reduction from 2010 baseline (%)
8

9

Bottom-up study in Taiyuan: Six clean coal and energy efficiency projects
• Four projects at the Iron and Steel Company
• District boiler house
• Coal briquetting factory
Mestl, Aunan, Fang, Seip, Skjelvik and Vennemo, J. Cleaner Production,
13 (2005), 57-70.
10

150
100
50
300
Summary bottom-up studies in Shanxi:
Health co-benefits of CO
2 reductions often higher than costs
762 USD/ton CO
2
Health benefit/CO2 (USD/ton CO2)
250
Abatement cost (USD/ton CO2)
200
0 n
Cog ene ratio ified
bo
Mod
-100 iler d
Bo esig n iler r epl ace men t
boiler mana t gemen
Coa l wa shin g
Briq uet ting
Steel 1 CD
Q
Steel 2 5
Iron and
Iron and
5% EA
Iron and
F
Steel 3 CC
PP
Iron and
Distr ict b
T oile r ho use
DB
Briq uet ting
fac tory
CB
Improved
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– lessons from China’s CDM project portfolio
Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)
Energy eff. (Own production at plant level)
Fossil fuel switch
Biomass PP (crop residues)
Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, wind..new PP)
Waste
Coal bed methane
NOx (100kg/ktCO2eq)
PM2.5 (100kg/ktCO2eq)
SO2 (t/ktCO2eq)
Cement
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
(Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
12

2
Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)
Energy eff. (Own production at plant level)
Fossil fuel switch
Biomass (crop residues in PP)
Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, wind..new PP)
Waste
Coal bed methane
Cement
-5 0
Health benefit
Avoided crop loss
5 10 15 20 25 30
(Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
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Bottom-up studies on co-benefits
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3. Solid household fuels and environmental impacts
Rural China: 80%-
90% of population weighted exposure is due to indoor air pollution from solid fuels
Urban China: 50-
60%
ΔPWE (μg/m 3 PM
10
) for three abatement scenarios in mainland China: 1) Clean fuels in urban residences, 2) partial fuel switch in rural residences, and 3) IAQ standard (150
μg/m 3 ) met in all households (urban and rural)
15

Solid household fuel use in China – environment and development issues
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Global 3-D chemical transport model (Oslo-
CTM2): Atmospheric burden of ozone, sulfate aerosols, and carbonaceous aerosols
Radiative transfer model: RF for BC, OC, and sulfate; TOA RF and global means (current and future integrated)
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Coal: Yes (due to CO
2 primarily); Biomass: Do not know..
100 mWm2 yr
Biomass fuels
Coal
50
0
-50
-100
-150
Global average TOA integrated radiative forcing from emissions from solid fuel burning in Asian households (2000), 100 y time horizon (68% CI) (Aunan et al. 2009)
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General:
– Health impact assessment
– RF from air pollutants
Study of impacts on GHG/air pollutants/population exposures from urbanization in China (e.g. alternative scenarios for transport; housing and household fuels; …)
China’s low-carbon strategies (province/city-level)
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