Mitigation of air pollution
and climate change in China
Workshop in Oslo 17 – 19 October 2004
Financial support by
The Research Council of Norway &
Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Robert Angus Smith
Our forerunner from the 19th century
„
Noxious vapours affect vegetation
along the river Tyne, 1875
The injury thus done to trees,
hedges, crops and pasturage is
enormous, in addition to the
mischief inflicted upon human
health and comfort…………
Dr. Smith’s investigations
show that it is not only
possible to reduce these
exhalations, but actually
economical to do so.
ESF EXPLORATORY WORKSHOP (co-sponsored by the Research Council of
Norway and the Norwegian Agency for Development Co-operation):
Atmospheric pollution effects on local, regional and global scales – an
integrated approach.
Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Oslo, September 26 – 28, 2002
Organizers:
Hans Martin Seip (Department of Chemistry, University of Oslo & Center
for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO)
Kristin Aunan (CICERO)
Haakon Vennemo (ECON Centre for Economic Analysis)
Impacts of various substances emitted to air
Climate
change
Transboundary
Acidification
Troposheric
ozone
Local air pollution
Health
Vegetation Materials
CO2
CH4
N2O
SO2
Sec. part.
NOx
Sec. part.
NH3
Sec. part.
NMVOC
Ozone
Ozone
Ozone
Ozone
CO
PM
?
Some measures and their effects
Type of measure
Removal of SO2 and/or particles
Removal of black carbon emissions
Change to unleaded gasoline
Fuel substitution:
Coal → Oil → Gas
Increased energy efficiency
Renewable energy- biomass
Renewable energy- sun/wind/wave
CO2 deposition
Local/
Regional
+
Global
(Climate)
(−)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(−)
+
+
+
+
From the report from the 2002 workshop:
There is a need for improved knowledge in a number
of areas, including:
„
„
„
Exposure estimates
‰ Improvements are necessary on all scales - from indoor to
regional; importance of site and height of emission should be
emphasized.
Dose-response relationships
‰ Includes effects on humans, vegetation and materials. There
is a particular lack of information from developing countries.
‰ Effects of particles, including black carbon, both as part of the
climate system and as air pollutant, are particularly important.
Valuation
‰ Valuation of health effects and natural ecosystems should be
focused.
‰ Willingness-to-pay studies in developing countries are highly
needed.
To what extent are the results of our work implemented? How
to increase penetration of results in policy and industry?
Local Pollution and Climate:
the Importance of Co-benefits
Beijing, November 13th – 14th, 2003
„
Organized by:
‰
‰
‰
PRCEE ( Policy Research Center for
Environment and Economy, State
Environmental Protection Administration,
China).
ECON (Center for Economic Analysis, Norway),
and
CICERO (Center for International Climate and
Environmental Research, Norway).
Some conclusions from the Beijing workshop
„
„
„
„
„
„
Co-benefits for China are very significant and not to be
ignored.
Environmental improvement, as well as energy saving
and new and renewable energy development, should be
put into the priority list for GHG-reduction in China.
China should support CDM stronger with consideration
of co-benefits.
China should have more active air pollution programs
and ecological restoration programs with consideration
of co-benefits.
GEF as well as other multilateral funding mechanisms
should pay non-Annex I countries’ for GHG reductions,
at least cover the incremental costs.
Countries’ emission baselines should be adjusted taking
co-benefits into consideration.
Mitigation of air pollution and climate
change in China
„
„
Goal: Elucidate advantages (and problems)
in considering mitigation of air pollution and
climate change in an integrated way through
discussing results in two important research
areas in an interdisciplinary forum.
Two topics will be included:
‰
‰
Emissions from the household sector affecting
climate and possible co-benefits.
Environmental impacts in a macro-economic
setting.
Why focus China?
Energy (commercial) consumption in
China 1965 - 2003
Energy (Mtoe)
nuclear
hydro1 %
1400,0
5%
1200,0
oil
23 %
gas
3%
1000,0
800,0
coal
68 %
600,0
400,0
200,0
„
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
0,0
Energy sources 2003
China is the country with the largest CO2 emissions after the USA.
Per capita emissions about 1/7 of those in the USA
Bjørn Lomborg:
Copenhagen consensus
The goal of the Copenhagen
Consensus project was to set
priorities among a series of
proposals for confronting ten great
global challenges.
The Skeptical Environmentalist
Measuring the real state of the world
Bjørn Lomborg:
Copenhagen consensus
„
Very Good
‰
‰
‰
‰
„
1 Diseases: Control of HIV/AIDS
2 Malnutrition: Providing micro nutrients
3 Subsidies and Trade:Trade liberalisation
4 Diseases: Control of malaria
Bad
‰
14 Migration: Guest worker programmes for the unskilled
‰
15 Climate: Optimal carbon tax
16 Climate: The Kyoto Protocol
17 Climate: Value-at-risk carbon tax
‰
‰
Gaia: Organisms and their environment evolve as a single,
self-regulating system.
James Lovelock
Nature, 426 (2003), 769-770
„Perhaps
its [Gaia’s] value lies in its metaphor
of a living earth. Which reminds us that we
are part of it and that human rights are
constrained by the needs of our planetary
partners.