1
Ship-borne nonindigenous species
diminish Great Lakes ecosystem
services
Ecosystems, in press
John Rothlisberger, David Finnoff, Roger Cooke,
and David Lodge
March 7 2012
2
Invasives in the news (28-2-12)
• http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/NewYork-drops-ballast-standards-shippersfought-3358978.php
• http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/02
27/Why-Asian-carp-are-such-a-threat
3
Biogeographic Realms of the World
(Udvardy 1975)
4
Global shipping crosses biogeographic
realms, spreading species
Video Credit: American Museum of Natural History, created from data from John Drake and David Lodge
What are the broad-scale impacts on
the GL of species introduced by
ballast water release?
• Literature review
–
–
–
–
Compete with natives for food
Prey on natives
Biofouling
Water taste and odor problems
5
6
Limitations of previous studies on NIS impacts
Lots of other drivers
besides NIS
?
1. Scale
2. Interactions
Determining Impacts:
Structured Expert
Judgment (SEJ)
Sector
Nuclear Applications
European Commission
7
Community
research
Project report
Nuclear science and
technology
Procedures guide for
structured expert
judgment
Chemical & Gas Industry
Air and Water pollution
Aerospace sector/space debris
Health: Campylobacter & SARS
Volcanoes & Dams
“Expert judgment is sought when
substantial scientific uncertainty impacts on
a decision process.”
(Cooke and Goosens 2005)
Rothlisberger, J.D., D.M. Lodge,
R.M. Cooke, and D.C. Finnoff. Shipborne nonindigenous species
diminish Great Lakes ecosystem
services. Ecosystems. In press.
8
What Sort of
Experts?
• Fishery biologists
• Industry reps (e.g., power,
shipping, angling)
• Environmental economists
• Leisure studies researchers
• GL food web ecologists
Types of
Variables
• Commercial fish
landings
• Sport fishing effort
• Biofouling—raw water
uses
• Non-consumptive use
(wildlife watching)
9
Commercial Fish Landings
60
40
10
40
20
20
1
75
19
25
20
05
20
95
19
85
0
19
75
00
19
(Millions of Pounds)
Commercially Landed Fish
0.0
0.0
0.0
Expert Elicitation Background
b)
L.
Michigan
e) L. Data
Erie
10
i)
4
55
20
60
80
Lake 0
Michigan
00
Elicited Data and Calibration
Commercial Fishing
WITH NIS
WITHOUT
0
2
6
4
8
10
Commercially Landed Fish
(Millions of Pounds)
12
10
Combined Expert
Assessments and Impact
Distributions
2.0e-07
1.5e-07
WITH
NIS
1.0e-07
11
2006 Lake Michigan
Commercial Fishing
PERCENT
REDUCTION
0.0e+00
Probability Density
5.0e-08
62%
0.005
0e+00
1e+07
2e+07
3e+07
4e+07
2.0e-07
WITHOUT
NIS
1.5e-07
1.0e-07
5.0e-08
0.0e+00
0
0e+00
10
1e+07
20
2e+07
30
3e+07
40
4e+07
Commercially Landed Fish
(Millions of Pounds)
WO-WITH/
WITH
0.004
16%
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.000
-100
-100
-50
0
50
100
100
150
200
200
21
Percent Greater Without NIS
2006 Percent Reduction Distributions
Commercial Fishing
Sport Fishing
59%
9%
-100
- 100
- 50
13
0
50
100
100
150
12
57%
200
200
33
62%
62%
16%
2%
23
-100
62%
31%
62%
39%
-100
30 100
200
14
100
200
68%
16%
21
18
1%
65%
59%
2%
-100
11
100
1%
200
15 100
200
US Biofouling
Biofouling costs (million 2006$)
-100
Wildlife Watching
0.0350
51%
0.0175
2%
- 100
-100
- 50
1
0
50
100
0.0000
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
13
Future of Great Lakes Fisheries:
Median fishery declines expected
in 2025 relative to 2006, from all drivers
Commercial: 9-25% (depending on lake)
Sport:
1-13% (depending on lake)
Rothlisberger, J.D., D.M. Lodge, R.M. Cooke, and D.C. Finnoff. 2009. Future declines of the binational
Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries: recognizing the importance of environmental and cultural change.
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 8: 239-244. doi:10.1890/090002
14
Relative to other drivers of
change in Great Lakes fisheries,
how important are the effects
of invasive species?
Changes in Great Lakes Fisheries:
Invasive species are the most important
environmental factor, but cultural factors are
also major drivers of change.
Drivers of change
15
16
Funding