05
59\5
A 1977 Input-Output
Model for
Clatsop County, Oregon
102119144.t.
cP
DEC 1979
LIB RARY N
fr OREGON STATE
UNiVERSITY
Za Seal:4
a
Special Report 525
December 1978
Agricultural Experiment Station
Oregon State University, Corvallis
CONTENTS
Page
Summary • Introduction Objectives Firms in the Clatsop County Economy Selection of the Sample The Questionnaire Data Collection Study Results The Transactions Table Total Sales Employment The Direct Coefficients The Direct-Indirect Coefficients The Multipliers A Note About Applying the Results References Appendix 1: Clatsop County Processing Sectors Appendix 2: Questionnaire Appendix 3: Mathematics of Deriving Input-Output Coefficients • •
•
1
1
2
2
6
6
7
7
14
16
18
23
24
29
32
33
36
• 40
Acknowledgments
The work reported here was supported financially by the Oregon Agricultural
Experiment Station, the Clatsop County Board of Commissioners and the Pacific
Fishery Management Council under Contract Number 77-10.
We are indebted to the many individuals representing Clatsop County businesses, governmental bodies and other organizations who provided the basic data
without which this work would have been impossible. In addition, we would like
to acknowledge the help received from Jim Bergeron, Les Miller, Bill Rompa, and
Bill Zelenka. Grant Blanch and Ed Schmisseur provided helpful comments on a
draft of this report.
Authors: Thomas M. Carroll is a graduate student and former research assistant
and Herbert H. Stoevener is professor, Department of Agricultural and
Resource Economics, Oregon State University.
SUMMARY
This report presents the results of an input-output analysis for the
Clatsop County economy of 1977. Financial information was collected from
292 firms in the county. The local economy was divided into 26 sectors.
The financial information from the sample was used to estimate the economic
interactions between these sectors and their relationship with the outside
world. Sector multipliers ranged from 1.5 to 3.2. A multiplier estimates
the economic impacts upon the entire county caused by a one dollar change
in final demand in that sector.
A 1977 INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL FOR CLATSOP COUNTY, OREGON
Thomas M. Carroll and Herbert H. Stoevener
Introduction
Input-output models have been available since the 1930s as a technique
to describe the structure of national economies. More recently, the methods for
deriving these models have been changed to make them adaptable to regional and
local economies. These models, especially at the county level, have been used to
estimate certain economic impacts from a number of resource development or conservation options. This is a report on such a study for Clatsop County, Oregon.
The Objectives
The 1977 Clatsop County input-output study was developed to provide a description of the Clatsop economy which would be useful to provide estimates of
economic impacts in the county caused by certain changes facing the county economy. A 1968 study by Collins [2] also was developed for these same purposes.
The present work is designed to update and replace the Collins model as a tool
for local planning purposes.
The tasks which needed to be performed consisted of (1) preparing a list
of all non-household economic entities in the county (businesses, government
agencies, and non-profit organizations), (2) selecting a sample of these from
which data were to be collected, (3) constructing a survey instrument or
questionnaire to aid in the data gathering, (4) collecting the data, and (5)
carrying out the analysis.
For simplicity we refer to all of these entities as "firms".
2
Firms in the Clatsop County Economy
A list of firms was compiled by using the Clatsop County phone book, a
Department of Labor listing of firms covered by unemployment insurance, and
state listings of commercial fishermen and farmers. From these sources, 1,978
firms were identified in the county. The Labor Department information indicated employment in Clatsop County at 11,733, including part-time and seasonal
employment.
To facilitate the eventual input-output model construction, all the firms
had to be grouped into certain economic sectors. This study utilized basically
the Collins [3] sector classification system. There were two major exceptions:
in contrast to the 1968 work, the current model includes households and certain
Federal agencies in the endogenous part of the model so the role of these sectors
in the local economy is more realistically portrayed. Appendix 1 has a listing
of the sectors for the 1977 model along with examples of the type of firms assigned
to each sector.
Selection of the Sample
Because it would be too expensive to survey the entire population of firms,
a stratified, weighted random sampling procedure was developed to select a
proportion of the population to survey. The sampling was stratified according to the previously defined sectors. Since the sector definitions for this
study were similar to those used in the Tillamook County study [4], the standard errors from the Tillamook County work were used to allocate sample sizes
to the various sectors. From Cochran [1] the sample size by sector was estimated by the following formula:
3
N S
h h
SSh
Sh nt EN1S1
where
SS
h
n
N
t
h
= the sample size for sector h
= total sample size
= number of firms in sector h
S h = standard error for sector h
N = number of firms in sector i (i = 1, 2, ... 16)
i
S = standard error for sector i (i = 1, 2, ... 16)
i
and
C
n = —t = 400
t
Co
where
C
C
o
= cost per interview = $20
t = budget for interviewing = $8000
A set of initial sector sampling sizes was derived, using these equations and
the standard errors from the Tillamook County Study. They are presented in
the first column of Table 1.
The sample distribution developed by the method was inadequate. This was
because the standard errors only described the variability in total sales and
not the variability in sales or purchase patterns. It was observed that many
sectors (16 of 26) had seven or fewer observations allocated to them by using
this method; statistical inferences from such small sub-samples seemed inappropriate. The information from Cochran's formula [1] was still used to indicate
potentially high variability sectors. However, the final allocation of observations among the Clatsop County sectors was based on the judgment of the research team. The final sample distribution is shown in the last column of
Table 1.
4
Table 1.
Sample Size by Sector for Clatsop County, Oregon, 1977
Sector
1.
n (N S /ENS i )
t h h
Final
Distribution
25
Logging
—114
7
2.
Wood Processing-
3.
Gillnet Fishermen
20
4.
Troll Fishermen
20
5.
Combination Fishermen
6.
Other Fishermen
7.
Salmon Processing
8.
Other Fish Processing
9.
Agriculture
6
15
10.
Manufacturing
5
14
11.
Lodging
5
20
12.
Restaurants
10
26
13.
Service Stations
4
14
14.
Automotive
5
12
15.
Transportation
16.
Communication-
17.
7
12
12
14
3
16
15
.-- 1
6
Professional
2
20
18.
Financial
1
6
19.
Construction
28
30
20.
Retail and Wholesale Products
38
50
21.
Retail Services
116
50
22.
Education
4
10
23.
County Government
N/A
1
24.
City Government
N/A
6
25.
Federal and State Agencies
N/A
399
16
437
5
The sample size derived by these means was 424. An additional 13 firms
were drawn as replacements. During the final weeks of interviewing nine of
the additional 13 replacement firms were interviewed in sectors with low
response rates. During the coding of the interviews it was discovered that
all the firms interviewed in the "Other Fishermen" sector fished, in part,
for salmon. Those interviews were reassigned to an appropriate sector and
four more interviews were arranged for this sector. Thus, the total sample
included 437 firms.
To account for the difference in firm sizes, a weighting system was
developed. The firms in each sector were assigned a weight using the firm's
total employment as a proxy for its size. In each sector, the firms were alphabetized and a cumulative range of numbers was assigned to each firm according to its number of employees. For example, if the first firm had 15 employees
it was assigned numbers 1 through 15, if the second firm had one employee it was
assigned number 16, if the third firm had 120 employees it was assigned numbers
17 through 136, and so on. The total number of employees in a sector defined
the last number in the series. Random numbers were selected between 1 and the
last number for each sector. A firm was selected for the sample if the random
number chosen was assigned to that firm. The probability that a specific firm
was selected in the sample on any one random selection was in direct proportion
to its size and is equal to its employment divided by total employment in the
sector. In this manner, the larger firms in the economy had a larger probability of being randomly selected.
Employment information was not available on firms in the four Fishermen
sectors nor for the Agriculture sector. Samples were drawn for these five
sectors in a simple random procedure; each firm had an equal chance of being
selected. In the four Fisheries sectors, firm size does not significantly
vary within each sector. Information describing firm size in Clatsop County
agriculture was not available.
6
The Questionnaire
The fundamental data required for any input-output model pertain to the
input requirements of firms in one sector from all other entities which supply
them with goods and services. For a small area, such as Clatsop County, the
focus is on the flow of goods and services among the various economic sectors
in the county as well as on the relationships of these sectors to the rest of
the world, i.e., their exports and imports.
Data of this type are not available from published sources. Therefore,
they have to be collected from the concerned firms in the study area. How the
list of firms and the sample were derived was discussed for this reason. To
aid in the collection of these data and their compilation a questionnaire was
constructed. The questionnaire was administered in a personal interview to
each respondent in the sample. The questions were concerned with the values
of the respondent's total sales of his goods and/or services and their distribution, the sectoral distribution of the respondent's purchases, toth
for current use and investment purposes, and with inventory changes, depreciation, and tax payments. A copy of the questionnaire is provided in
Appendix 2.
Data Collection
Beginning January 9, 1978, a team of four interviewers began collecting
data in Clatsop County. Each firm in the sample was sent a letter explaining
the needs of the study. The firms were then contacted by telephone to arrange
interview appointments. The interviews lasted from 10 to 60 minutes with an
estimated average of about 25 minutes. Interviewing in Clatsop County took six
weeks. Many firms had to be interviewed in Portland because the Clatsop County
establishment was a branch of a larger firm and did not keep its own accounts.
7
Table 2 presents a description of the sample and surveying results by sector.
The total sample included 437 firms from which 292 useable questionnaires were
completed. The 292 firms successfully interviewed represent 14.8% of all the
firms in the economy, but 61.7% of the employment in Clatsop County. This outcome is the result of the weighting system used in sample selection.
Of the 145 firms in the sample for whom no interviews were completed, 40
refused to be interviewed, 12 were interviewed but the information they supplied was too incomplete to be of use, 28 firms referred the interviewer to supervising offices out of the county which were too costly to contact, 23 were not
actual businesses in 1977, and 42 firms could not be located after reasonable
effort. The refusal rate was 9% of the total sample; the success rate 67%.
As the survey data pertain only to a sample of firms in Clatsop County
they had to be expanded to derive estimates for the total population of firms.
The entries in the last column of Table 2 were used for this purpose. The expansion factors were computed by dividing 100% by the percent of employment
represented by the interviewed firms in each sector. In the five sectors (the
four Fisheries and Agriculture) where employment figures were not available,
the expansion was accomplished by multiplying the sample estimates by a factor
based on the percentage which the interviewed firms comprise of all firms in
each sector.
Study Results
The Transaction Table
A central part of any input/output model is the transactions table. It
provides a means to organize the survey data in a manner which facilitates the
derivation of multipliers and other measures often used in economic impact analyses. The transactions table is derived by reconciling with each other the various
es timates of sales and purchases by sector derived from the survey data. The results are shown in Table 3.
8
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9
Table 3.
Transaction Table for Clatsop County, Oregon, 1977 (in thousands of dollars)
Purchases
2
1
Sales
Logging
1.
Logging
2.
Wood Processing
Wood
Processing
503
9509
4587
271
7
3
4
5
6
Gillnet
Fishermen
Troll
Fishermen
Combination
Fishermen
Other
Fishermen
0
Salmon
Processing
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
12
0
779
3.
Gillnet Fishermen
0
310
0
4.
Troll
0
0
0
0
0
0
981
5.
Combination
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
2248
6.
Other Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
7.
Salmon Processing
0
0
0
0
8.
Other Fish
Processing
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
17
0
0
0
0
0
0
9.
10.
Fishermen
Agriculture
Manufacturing
0
0
0
1
0
155
25
0
0
2
0
0
35
0
80
0
0
2
15
*
11.
Lodging
3
3
12.
Restaurants
4
29
21
0
13.
Service Stations
80
153
103
128
152
253
3
8
14.
Automotive
165
45
15.
Transportation
663
247
0
16.
Communication
10
42
*
17.
Professional
33
39
1
18.
Financial
113
205
7
19.
Construction
0
20.
Retail & Wholesale
Products
365
524
344
21.
Retail Services
194
117
81
22.
Education
1699
1796
23.
County Government
211
223
24.
City Governments
1277
1384
1
25.
Households
12598
18395
180
26.
Federal & State
Agencies in the
County
593
2016
27.
Federal & State
Agencies outside
the County
944
28.
Businesses Outside
the County
29.
Households Outside
the County
30.
Inventory
Depletion
31.
Depreciation
32.
TOTAL PURCHASES
67
9
25
451
4
44
0
3
14
10
3
102
29
34
126
14
4
0
0
344
309
361
160
73
429
23
19
1
14
3
30
26
0
2
6
12
1
*
1
*
2
*
10
2
46
304
1726
4211
583
18
14
16
6
75
3209
29
22
26
9
120
14032
108973
74
95
275
429
1545
0
11951
0
0
0
0
*
4
4
0
0
0
0
1359
9727
215
193
4043
358
47
39451
168928
1116
1234
8091
6173
6909
0
0
*
403
* Denotes an entry of less than $500 which was rounded to zero.
(continued)
10
Table 3.
(continued)
8
9
10
12
11
14
13
Sales
Purchases
Other Fish
Processing
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Lodging
1.
Logging
0
0
2.
Wood Processing
0
0
3.
Gillnet Fishermen
0
0
0
4.
Troll Fishermen
0
0
0
5.
Combination
Fishermen
3464
0
0
6.
Other Fishermen
5992
0
70
0
7.
Salmon Processing
0
0
8
0
8.
Other Fish
Processing
719
40
9.
Agriculture
0
10.
Manufacturing
11.
Lodging
101
8
1101
0
1
0
3
0
Restaurants
Service
Stations
Automotive
2
0
0
0
0
5
0
*
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
254
0
0
109
30
13
0
0
0
0
12.
Restaurants
13.
Service Stations
54
69
196
20
0
0
0
4
0
0
88
=0
4
0
*
7
17
4978
522
89
136
14.
Automotive
24
70
19
5
6
15.
Transportation
95
23
56
168
2
16.
Communication
117
21
64
259
71
53
72
48
*
43
17.
Professional
15
25
40
8
61
13
18.
Financial
9
112
109
169
98
72
93
19.
Construction
7
42
83
44
35
4
19
20.
Retail & Wholesale
Products
1757
1186
474
585
2390
361
635
21.
Retail Services
141
100
362
277
244
184
83
22.
Education
116
57
90
154
61
13
24
23.
County Government
24.
City Governments
25.
14
7
1
19
7
2
3
207
55
82
144
132
23
39
Households
9779
1244
3699
1626
6239
2231
3038
26.
Federal & State
Agencies in the
County
1057
31
537
82
774
110
951
27.
Federal & State
Agencies Outside
the County
1682
49
854
131
1232
176
1514
28.
Businesses Outside
the County
32653
792
9653
1177
3572
20200
14357
29.
Households Outside
the County
106
14
71
827
172
23
13
30.
Inventory
Depletion
0
15
Depreciation
618
59730
31.
32.
TOTAL PURCHASES
0
0
0
0
352
248
352
519
70
102
4372
16784
6115
16042
28611
21697
2
* Denotes an entry of less than $500 which was rounded to zero.
(continued)
11
Table 3. (continued)
15
16
17
18
Transportation
Communication
Professional
Financial
19
20
Construction
Retail &
Wholesale
Products
21
Retail
Services
0
0
22
23
Education
County
Government
1.
Logging
0
0
0
0
0
2.
Wood Processing
0
0
0
0
201
3.
Gillnet Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,
Troll
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5.
Combination
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6.
Other Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7.
Salmon Processing
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8.
Other Fish
Processing
0
0
0
0
0
235
*
0
0
9.
Agriculture
0
0
0
0
0
334
0
0
0
10.
Manufacturing
0
0
0
*
29
*
13
*
14
11.
Lodging
12.
Restaurants
Fishermen
19
0
0
1
2
4
0
5
211
1
3
0
30
10
0
16
44
217
6
23
17
46
29
*
24
7
6
757
969
90
112
143
86
202
0
146
13.
Service Stations
1694
88
14.
Automotive
85
10
2
0
396
478
180
15.
Transportation
13
11
10
0
46
239
10
16.
Communication
138
27
96
72
179
1267
190
82
182
17.
Professional
85
30
109
12
85
94
99
123
286
18.
Financial
11
34
150
17
469
29
154
194
2
19.
Construction
238
1058
4
0
3402
55
255
130
96
20.
Retail & Wholesale
Products
2233
59
329
51
1721
4031
1233
995
491
21.
Retail Services
1663
119
208
99
1140
481
401
225
210
22.
Education
132
9
14
40
63
298
58
3048
1
23.
County Government
24,
City Governments
25.
Households
26.
16
1
2
5
8
35
7
22
109
15
34
33
67
404
53
17
5129
1928
7478
6120
9078
13708
9776
11426
1930
Federal & State
Agencies in the
the County
472
26
262
147
553
2056
1270
450
153
27.
Federal & State
Agencies outside
the County
751
42
416
233
880
3273
2022
715
243
28.
Businesses outside
the County
5518
9545
3530
1355
8832
79564
3091
3905
682
29.
Households outside
the County
1611
1
165
296
80
2303
1010
567
30.
Inventory
Depletion
31.
Depreciation
32,
TOTAL PURCHASES
0
0
0
0
1751
29
173
116
1132
21699
13460
12997
8628
29136
0
94
0
0
0
0
0
0
735
257
303
175
110776
20212
22402
4996
* Denotes an entry of less than $500 which was rounded to zero.
(continued)
12
Table 3. (continued)
24
Sales
Purchases
25
City
Government
0
26
27
31
28
29
30
Businesses
outside
the
County
Households
outside
the
County
Inventory
Accumulation
Households
Federal
& State
Agencies
in the
County
Federal
& State
Agencies
outside
the
County
0
0
0
29392
0
44
32
Capital
Investments
Total
Sales
0
39451
231
168929
1.
Logging
2.
Wood Processing
242
0
0
156558
3.
Gilinet Fishermen
0
0
0
0
15
0
0
0
1116
4.
Troll Fishermen
0
0
0
150
105
0
0
0
1234
5.
Combination
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
2379
0
0
0
6.
Other Fishermen
0
0
0
0
81
0
0
0
7.
Salmon Processing
0
52
0
27
6628
36
0
0
6909
8.
Other Fish
Processing
0
570
0
381
56792
314
298
0
59730
9.
Agriculture
0
1347
0
0
2071
345
150
0
4372
10.
Manufacturing
0
1630
11.
Lodging
12.
1
4662
2144
8091
'
3
6173
16784
407
0
9790
183
3
868
10
0
385
4568
0
0
6115
Restaurants
13
8426
14
0
0
6986
96
0
16042
13.
Service Stations
92
12851
126
0
20
4803
55
2
28611
14.
Automotive
44
14349
83
0
15.
Transportation
34
245
50
232
16.
Communication
17.
18.
3461
1112
3143
64
387
21697
19216
94
0
0
21699
2076
58
0
2
70
8163
Professional
264
5398
32
2398
2542
1014
Financial
644
3328
*
159
1737
538
19.
Construction
545
11696
203
0
1694
2646
152
6656
20.
Retail & Wholesale
Products
654
79392
843
4
2521
5353
400
672
21.
Retail Services
643
6084
159
352
4973
1083
34
111
0
7
0
0
13460
12997
0
8628
29136
110776
9
20212
22.
Education
*
4930
23.
County Government
0
2633
241
545
989
0
0
0
4996
24.
City Governments
99
5156
1461
670
0
0
0
138
11659
25.
Households
2827
4617
7300
34058
14112
0
0
509
195849
26.
Federal & State
Agencies in the
County
166
1103
1557
3112
1087
1350
13
1
20058
27.
Federal & State
Agencies outside
the County
264
1755
2478
4953
1729
2149
21
2
31926
28.
Businesses outside
the County
1233
20038
3385
0
14669
363174
29.
Households outside
the County
24
200
13
2
19454
30.
Inventory Depletion
0
0
35
31.
Depreciation
32.
TOTAL PURCHASES
1944
4038
2000
15
11659
195849
20058
7808
0
0
0
0
22402
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
543
0
0
0
0
0
28933
58309
318005
* Denotes an entry of less than $500 which was rounded to zero.
39327
5108
23284
1301164
13
A quick glance at Table 3 indicates, first of all, that the first 26 columns
bear the same headings as the first 26 rows of that table. The 26 sectors shown
in this part of the table comprise the "endogenous" part of the input/output model.
It is among these sectors that the interactions in the economy exist. This interaction results from the flow of goods and services among Clatsop County businesses,
households, and governmental agencies.
Many of the goods and services being sold and used in Clatsop County are
imported. Similarly, exports are very important to Clatsop County. Imports and
exports are described by three sectors: (1) Businesses outside Clatsop County,
(2) Government Agencies outside Clatsop County, and (3) Households outside Clatsop
County. Specifically, imports are represented by the entries in rows 27-29 while
exports are shown in columns 27-29 of Table 3. Each entry in Table 3 represents
the sales from the sector on the left to the sector whose name appears on the top
of the column. From the opposite viewpoint, such an entry represents the purchases of the sector of the column from the firms in the sector of the row. Reading across a row shows how much a sector sold to the other sectors. For example,
reading across the 16th row of Table 3 shows that the Communications sector sold
approximately $10,000 of goods and services to the Logging sector, $42,000 to the
Wood Processing sector and so on. Sales to the first 26 sectors are to local
firms. In addition, the Communications sector sold nothing to Federal and State
Agencies outside Clatsop County; it sold approximately $2,076,000 worth of goods
and services to Businesses outside the county and $58,000 to Households outside
the county. These are the sector's exports.
Inventory accumulation and capital investment are other uses of a sector's
output. They are shown in columns 30 and 31. The entries in column 32 represent
the sum of all the entries to the left. They are the total sales of the sector.
For the Communications sector there are no positive entries for Inventory Accumulation and Capital Investment. Total Sales were about $13.5 million.
14
Reading down a column indicates how much a sector purchased from the other
sectors. For example, reading down the 13th column of Table 3 shows that the
Service Stations sector purchased nothing from the first 8 sectors. It purchased
approximately $4,000 from the Agricultural sector and so on. Again, the entries
in the first 26 rows are purchases from local firms and households. The purchases
from sector 27, 28, and 29 are imports.
Not unlike purchasing from other sectors, a firm may draw down its inventories or depreciate its capital stock to support its production. Charges for
these two inputs are shown in rows 30 and 31. The sum of all entries down a
column shows the total purchases of a sector. For the Service Stations sector,
the entry in row 32 shows total purchases of approximately $29 million.
Total Sales
The information in the last row or column of Table 3 is also presented in
Table 4. Here the entries are arrayed in declining order of magnitude. They
present one measure of the importance of the various sectors in the Clatsop
County economy. From this scale it is apparent that natural resources, the
harvesting and processing of timber and fish, play an important part in the
county's economy.
Another important industry in Clatsop County is tourism. However, no
one sector contains the total tourist impact upon the economy because tourists
spend money in a wide variety of sectors such as Lodging, Restaurants, and Service Stations. To shed more light on the size of this sector, the 29th column
in Table 3 is examined. It represents the exports to Households outside Clatsop County. Some of these exports are sales to tourists passing through the
county, while others are sales to individuals who live near Clatsop County
but who shop inside the county. The total of exports to out-of-county residents is $39,327,000. No direct estimate exists of the proportion attributable
15
Table 4. Clatsop County Sectors by Total Sales
Sales
(thousands)
Rank
Sector
1
Wood Processing
2
Retail & Wholesale Products
3
Other Fish Processing
59,730
4
Logging
39,451
5
Construction
29,136
6
Service Stations
28,611
7
Education
22,402
8
Transportation
21,699
9
Automotive
21,697
10
Retail Services
20,212
11
Federal & State Agencies
20,058
12
Manufacturing
16,784
13
Restaurants
16,042
14
Communication
13,460
15
Professional
12,997
16
City Governments
11,659
17
Financial
8,628
18
Combination Fishermen
8,091
19
Salmon Processing
6,909
20
Other Fishermen
6,173
21
Lodging
6,115
22
County Government
4,996
23
Agriculture
4,372
24
Troll Salmon Fishermen
1,234
25
Gillnet Salmon Fishermen
1,116
TOTAL
$168,929
110,776
$661,277
16
to tourists. Of the $39 million, approximately $5 million can be attributed to
sectors which are not traditionally connected with tourism (Wood Processing, Agriculture and Manufacturing). Another $16.5 million occurred in sectors in which
sales to non-resident households are likely to be sales to tourists (Lodging,
Restaurants, Service Stations, Transportation and Communications). The other
$17.5 million was spent in sectors which sell to both tourists and day shoppers
living near Clatsop County. This indicates that sales to tourists are likely to
be something less than $34 million. A more precise estimate of these sales could
be derived only from a study which focuses directly on the tourist expenditures
in Clatsop County.
Employment
For many purposes, employment by sector is a better measure of its importance
in the local economy than is its rank by total sales. The two measures are not
likely to lead to the same ranking as labor intensity among sectors varies.
Table 3 provides, again, the necessary information.
Households sell their labor services in exchange for wages and salaries.
They also receive profits, interest, dividends, and rents for other services
they provide. Many households are recipients of various payments from government.
All of these flows of funds are recorded in row 25 of Table 3. These same numbers are arrayed from the highest to the lowest in Table 5.
17
Table 5. Clatsop County Sectors by Payments to Households and Output
per Employee
Sector
Wood Processing
Retail & Wholesale Products
Logging
Education
Other Fish Processing
Payments to
Households
(thousands)
$18,395
13,708
12,598
11,426
9,779
Rank by
Payments
1
2
3
4
5
Output per
Employee
$113,895
88,028
64,767
20,839
82,850*
Retail Services
Construction
Professional
Federal & State Agencies
Restaurants
9,776
9,078
7,478
7,300
6,239
9
10
Financial
Transportation
Households
Other Fishermen
6,120
5,129
4,617
4,211
11
12
13
14
51,046
48,972
N/A
Manufacturing
Automotive
3,699
3,038
2,827
2,231
15
16
65,317
1,930
1,626
19
20
21
22
Agriculture
Salmon Processing
1,244
583
23
24
24,172
*
24,021
*
82,850
Troll Fishermen
Gillnet Fishermen
304
180
25
26
16,614
*
16,614
City Governments
Service Stations
County Government
Communication
Combination Fishermen
Lodging
*
**
1,928
1,726
6
7
8
17
18
23,127
83,264
20,182
35,436
18,440
16,164
*
98,135
47,985
223,714
29,386
62,035
*
16,164
*
See footnote on page 18.
Employment information for the Agriculture sector was not available from
the Department of Labor and had to be estimated from other published sources.
18
From the "Payments" column of Table 5, the importance of the natural resource
based sectors is again apparent. But in contrast to Table 4 some of the labor intensive sectors, such as Education and Retail Services, also occupy much higher
ranks than they did when ranked on the basis of total sales.
Some additional information on the labor intensity of the various sectors can
be gleaned from the last column of Table 5 which was derived by dividing the total
output of each sector (from Table 3) by the total employment for that sector (from
Table 2). To the extent that the rates of payments to households (annual wages,
salaries, interest rates, etc.) are the same from sector to sector, a small number
in this column indicates greater reliance on local households per unit of output
in this sector's production than would be the case in a sector for which this number is greater. The values in this column range from less than $20,000 to more
than $200,000.
The Direct Coefficients
Using the expression
a = x /x
where
x
ij
= the quantity of goods and services flowing from sector i to
sector j (the entry in Table 3 for row i and column j) and
X = total output or sales of sector j (the entry in Table 3 for
column 32 and row j),
it is possible to construct a new table in which the entries (a ii ) represent coefficients depicting the proportion of goods and services supplied by sector i
per dollar of output in sector j. The results of these calculations are shown in
Table 6.
Employment data for the four Fisheries and two Fish Processing sectors were
not detailed enough to distinguish between sectors; therefore, these coefficients are just averages of all of the fisheries sectors and all of the fish
processing sectors, respectively.
19
Table 6.
Direct Purchase Coefficients for Clatsop County, Oregon, 1977
1
2
Logging
3
Wood
Processing
1. Logging
.0128
.0563
2. Wood
Processing
.1163
.0016
Gilinet
Fishermen
0
4
Troll
Fishermen
5
6
Combination Other
Fishermen
Fishermen
7
Salmon
Processing
8
9
Other Fish
Processing
Agricultu
0
0
0
0
0
0
.0013
0
0
0
0
0
0
3.
Gillnet
Fishermen
0
0
.0109
0
.0383
0
.1128
0
0
4.
Troll
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1420
0
0
5.
Combination
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
.3254
.0580
0
6.
Other
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1003
0
7.
Salmon
Processing
0
0
0
0
.0001
0
.0224
0
0
8.
Other Fish
Processing
0
0
0
.0009
.0030
0
0
.0120
.0231
9.
Agriculture
*
0
0
0
.0003
0
0
0
.0019
Manufacturing
.0004
0
0
0
.0044
0
.0115
.0184
0
Lodging
.0001
*
0
0
0
0
0
*
0
10.
11.
12.
Restaurants .0001
.0002
.0186
0
.0002
.0025
*
*
0
13.
Service
Stations
.0020
.0009
.0919
.1034
.0187
.0410
.0005
.0009
.0159
14.
Automotive
.0042
.0003
.0230
.0069
.0030
.0731
.0012
.0004
.0160
15.
Transportation
.0168
.0015
0
.0030
.0055
0
.0008
.0016
.0053
16.
Communication
.0002
.0003
.0004
.0021
.0017
.0017
.0018
.0020
.0048
17.
Professional
.0008
.0002
.0013
.0025
.0126
.0047
.0002
.0003
.0058
18.
Financial
.0029
.0012
.0066
.0275
.0156
.0022
.0001
.0001
.0255
19.
Construction
0
.0004
0
.0029
0
0
.0001
.0001
.0096
20.
Retail &
Wholesale
Products
.0093
.0031
.3084
.2788
.0382
.0584
.0232
.0294
.2712
21.
Retail
Services
.0049
.0007
.0729
.0593
.0530
.0038
.0028
.0024
.0228
22.
Education
.0431
.0106
.0015
.0005
.0017
.0004
.0044
.0019
.0130
23.
County
Government
.0053
.0013
.0002
.0001
.0002
.0001
.0005
.0002
.0016
24.
City
Governments .0324
.0082
.0011
.0004
.0013
.0003
.0067
.0035
.0127
25.
Households
.3193
.1089
.1617
.2458
.2134
.6822
.0844
.1637
.2844
26.
Federal &
State Agencies
in the
County
.0150
.0119
.0161
.0114
.0020
.0009
.0109
.0177
.0071
27.
Imports
.7924
.2841
.2547
.5867
.1288
.2484
.5870
.2794
.4140
-
* Coefficient is smaller than .00005
(continued)
20
Table 6. (continued)
10
11
Manufac-
turing
12
Lodging
13
Restau-
rants
Service
Stations
14
Automotive
15
Transpor-
tation
17
18
Communi-
cation
16
Professional
Financial
1.
Logging
.0001
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2.
Wood
Processing
.0003
0
*
0
0
0
0
0
0
3.
Gillnet
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4.
Troll
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5.
Combination
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6.
Other
Fishermen
.0041
0
.0019
0
0
0
0
0
' 0
7.
Salmon
Processing
.0005
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8.
Other Fish
Processing
.0024
0
.0158
0
0
0
0
0
0
Agriculture
0
0
.0068
.0001
0
0
0
0
0
.0002
0
.0008
0
.0002
0
0
0
*
0
.0157
.0001
.0004
9.
10.
Manufacturing
11.
Lodging
0
0
0
0
.0002
12.
Restaurants
.0012
0
0
.0003
*
.0020
.0162
.0005
.0026
13.
Service
Stations
.0117
.0144
.0010
.1740
.0241
.0781
.0066
.0006
.0007
14.
Automotive
.0011
.0007
.0003
.0031
.0063
.0039
.0007
.0002
0
15.
Transportation
.0033
.0275
.0001
*
.0020
.0006
.0008
.0008
0
16.
Communication
.0038
.0424
.0044
.0019
.0033
.0064
.0020
.0074
.0083
17.
Professional
.0024
.0013
.0038
.0005
.0022
.0039
.0022
.0084
.0014
18.
Financial
.0065
.0277
.0061
.0025
.0043
.0005
.0026
.0116
.0020
19.
Construction
.0050
.0072
.0022
.0001
.0009
.0110
.0786
.0003
0
20.
Retail &
Wholesale
Products
.0282
.0956
.1490
.0126
.0293
.1029
.0044
.0253
.0059
21 ! Retail
Services
.0216
.0453
.0152
.0064
.0038
.0766
.0089
.0160
.0115
22.
Education
.0054
.0252
.0038
.0004
.0011
.0061
.0007
.0011
.0047
23.
County
Government
.0001
.0031
.0005
.0001
.0001
.0008
.0001
.0001
.0006
24.
City
Governments
.0049
.0236
.0082
.0008
.0018
.0050
.0011
.0026
.0038
25.
Households
.2204
.2659
.3889
.0780
.1400
.2364
.1432
.5754
.7093
26.
Federal &
State Agencies
in the
.0320
County
.0134
.0483
.0039
.0438
.0217
.0020
.0201
.0170
27.
Imports
.6450
.4067
.3427
.7154
.7368
.4438
.7145
.3297
.2319
* Coefficient is smaller than .00005.
(continued)
21
Table 6. (continued)
19
21
20
Construc-
tion
22
Retail &
Wholesale Retail
Products
Services Education
23
24
25
26
County
Govern-
ment
City
Govern-
ments
Households
Federal & State
Agencies in the
County
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Wood
Processing
.0069
.0002
.0001
.0002
0
.0001
.0012
0
Gillnet
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4.
Troll
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5.
Combination
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6.
Other
Fishermen
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7.
Salmon
Processing
0
0
.0001
0
0
0
.0003
0
8.
Other Fish
Processing
0
.0021
*
0
0
0
.0029
0
9.
Agriculture
0
.0030
0
0
0
0
.0069
0
1.
Logging
2.
3.
10.
Manufacturing
.0010
*
.0006 *
.0029
0
.0021
0
11.
Lodging
0
.0003
.0005
0
.0031
.0002
.0044
.0005
12.
Restaurants
.0006
.0004
.0014
*
.0047
.0011
.0430
.0007
13.
Service
Stations
.0260
.0087
.0045
.0050
.0287
.0079
.0656
.0063
14.
Automotive
.0136
.0043
.0089
.0039
.0404
.0038
.0733
.0041
15.
Transportation
.0016
.0022
.0005
0
.0291
.0030
.0013
.0025
16.
Commuication
.0062
.0114
.0094
.0037
.0364
.0060
.0417
.0055
17.
Professional
.0029
.0008
.0049
.0055
.0572
.0226
.0276
18.
Financial
.0161
.0003
.0076
.0086
.0004
.0553
.0170
.0016
*
19.
Construction
.1167
.0005
.0126
.0058
.0192
.0467
.0597
.0101
20.
Retail &
Wholesale
Products
.0591
.0364
.0610
.0444
.0983
.0561
.4054
.0420
21.
Retail
Services
.0391
.0043
.0198
.0100
.0421
.0552
.0311
.0079
22.
Education
.0022
.0027
.0029
.1360
.0001
*
.0252
.0969
23.
County
Government
.0003
.0003
.0003
.0010
0
0
.0134
.0120
24.
City
Governments
.0023
.0036
.0026
.0007
0
.0085
.0263
.0728
25.
Households
.3116
.1237
.4837
.5100
.3863
.2425
.0236
.3640
26.
Federal &
State Agencies
in the
County
.0190
.0186
.0629
.0201
.0306
.0142
.0056
.0776
27.
Imports
.7761
.3157
.2451
.2204
.4768
.1225
.2954
.3750
* Coefficient is smaller than .00005.
22
As an example of the calculations necessary to construct Table 6, refer to
the interaction between the Retail and Wholesale Products and the Restaurants
sectors. If the former sector is the supplier of the goods and the latter is the
purchaser, the intersectoral flow in row 20 (i) and column 12 (j) of Table 3
($2,390,000) represents x ij .
Xj , the output of the Restaurant sector, is found
in column 32 and row 12 of Table 3, namely $16,042,000. Hence
a =
ij
2 390 000
2a- = 0.1490. This result corresponds to the entry in
16,042,000
the Wholesale and Retail Products row and Restaurants column of Table 6.
There is a slight difference in formats between Tables 3 and 6. In the latter the "Imports" row is a combination of the three importing sectors of Table 3
(Federal and State Agencies outside the county, Business outside the county and
Households outside the county) as well as Inventory Depletion and Depreciation.
While Depreciation is an important cost for many sectors, imports generally outweigh all other entries in this row. These coefficients show how the various
sectors differ in their reliance upon imports. As the coefficients in each
column add to 1.0, an entry larger than 0.5 in the last row of Table 6 indicates that more than one half a sector's supplies originated in the components of the Imports row. This is the case for about one third of the Clatsop
County sectors.
Entries in Table 6 are referred to as "Direct Coefficients" because each
entry indicates the direct requirements for inputs (in dollar terms) of the
row sector which result from a one dollar change in the output of the column
sector. Use of this direct coefficient disregards any other interactions in
the economy which give rise to additional (indirect) output responses from
other sectors. It is the estimation of the combined direct and indirect
effects which are the subject of the next section.
23
The Direct-Indirect Coefficients
An example may help to explain the more extensive nature of the economic impact of an output change in one of the sectors than is indicated by the entries in
Table 6. Assume that the export demand for products of the Troll Fishermen (sector
4) increases by one dollar. This sector would increase its output by one
dollar. Table 6 shows that this sector would import approximately an additional
25 cents worth of goods and services and would spend 75 cents in the sectors of
the Clatsop County economy.
The impact of the one dollar change would go further than this, however.
Take, for example, the nearly 28 cents out of the 75 cents which Troll Fishermen would spend in the Retail and Wholesale Products sector. These 28 cents
would cause further purchases by the latter sector which in turn would set off
another round of effects. These impacts would continue over many rounds until
"leakages" of funds from the local economy, mainly in the form of payments for
imports, would bring the process to a halt.
Mathematical manipulation of the data in Table 6 allows the derivation of
another set of coefficients which portray this broader measure of economic impacts. The mathematics involve solving simultaneously a set of 26 equations
of the form
Ea
ij Xj
in which
+ Y = X (i , j = 1, 2,
i
i
, 26)
Y = final demand for sector i (the entries in columns 27-31
i
of Table 3)
and all other variables are as previously defined.
* Any increase in "final demand" would have the same effects, i.e., the change
could be in one of the three kinds of "exports", inventories or investment.
See columns 27 - 31 of Table 3.
24
While the details of the mathematical solution are provided in Appendix 3,
the results relevant for our purposes are presented in Table 7. Turning again
to the above example, we notice that the total impact (direct and indirect) of
a one dollar increase in final demand in the Troll Fishermen sector leads to 52
cents of purchases from the Wholesale and Retail sector. This is considerably
more than the direct impact of 28 cents discussed earlier. Similarly it is noteworthy that in some instances no direct interdependencies between sectors may
still lead to significant impacts when the indirect effects are taken into
account. For example, Table 6 shows no direct purchases of the Troll Fishermen from the Construction sector. Yet Table 7 indicates a three cent impact
on the Construction sector per dollar of final demand change in the Troll
Fishermen sector.
The Multipliers
Among the various numbers derived from input/output models, multipliers
are perhaps of greatest general interest. These measures are derived as the
sums of the entries in the columns of Table 7. They are shown in the last
row of that table and are arranged in declining order of magnitude in Table 8.
The economic interpretation of these multipliers is straightforward.
They indicate the total change in sales in the economy when final demand for
the corresponding sector changes by one dollar. For example, the multiplier
for the Gillnet Fishermen sector is estimated to be 2.4. A one dollar increase in final demand of this sector is expected to lead to a total increase
in the volume of business in the county of $2.40.
Multipliers for Clatsop County sectors range from 1.5 to 3.2. In general, those sectors which are either labor intensive or draw their material
supplies from local sources have high multipliers. Those which are more
capital intensive in their production and which depend more on imports are
found near the other end of the scale in Table 8.
25
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Table 8. Clatson County Multipliers b y Sector.
Sector
Multiplier
Other Fishermen
3.2
Financial
3.1
Education
3.0
County Government
2.9
Federal & State Agencies
2.9
Professional
2.8
Retail Services
2.8
Salmon Processing
2.7
Households
2.7
Restaurants
2.6
Agriculture
2.6
Troll Fishermen
2.6
Construction
2.6
Gillnet Fishermen
2.4
Lodging
2.4
Logging
2.4
City Governments
2.3
Transportation
2.3
Other Fish Processing
2.1
Combination Fishermen
2.0
Manufacturing
1.9
Automotive
1.6
Service Stations
1.6
Wood Processing
1.5
Retail & Wholesale Products
1.5
29
One aspect about these multipliers is important enough to be reemphasized. They refer only to the total volume of sales in the economy which
are associated with a given economic change. It is not easy to interpret
this number. While it does yield some indication of overall changes in
economic activity in the area, its analytical content goes no further.
Especially when it comes to measuring broad economic impacts it must be
remembered that the multipliers combine the output effects in perhaps vastly
different economic sectors. Adding together a dollar's worth of sales in
each of the Service Stations and Professional Services sectors is a bit
like adding apples and oranges.
Whenever possible, it is prefereable to use the data in Table 7 more
extensively. If there is an anticipated change in final demand of a certain
sector for which some statements on impacts are desired, it may be better to
review all the entries in the sector's column than to focus only on the sum
of them. In this manner something can be said about the impact of the change
on specific sectors. The entry in the Household row is especially important
because it portrays the effect that the anticipated change is expected to
have on payments flowing to local households.
A Note about Applying the Results
The greatest strength of the work reported here lies in its description
of the Clatsop County economy. It is possible to learn a great deal about
this economy, the size of its components and their interrelationships from the
various numbers which were discussed. While it is necessary to remember that
the fundamental data for this work were collected from a sample survey and may
be subject to some errors, the overall accuracy of the description which
* This is especially true for individual entries in the Transactions Table
which may have been derived from a small number of observations.
30
this model provides is good. The data collection work was extensive and
successful and the overall results appear reasonable and consistent with those
derived from other studies.
Pure description of the Clatsop County economy is, however, of limited
practical usefulness. Instead, most applications of the model will be concerned with its use as a predictive device. The discussion of the directindirect coefficients and multipliers was indicative of the kinds of predictions about impacts for which this model is likely to be used. We raise three
concerns in this regard.
When using this model for predictive purposes it is, first of all,
necessary to remember its limitations. The model was derived on the basis
of 1977 data. The relationships in the economy as they existed in 1977,
therefore, will have to be used to make any statements about impacts in the
future. Whenever it is thought that the 1977 description of the Clatsop
County economy is no longer representative of the current structure of the
economy, further uses of the model become hazardous. Work is under way at
Oregon State University on the efficacy of up-dating small area input/output
models to extend their useful lives.
Closely related is a second concern about the nature of the expected
change to be analyzed. The model does best in predicting impacts of marginal changes in output of existing sectors in the economy. When changes
in existing sectors are very large or when entirely new industries are
established in an economy of which an existing sector would not be representative at all, modifications will have to be made in the model itself.
The discussion of these alterations goes beyond the scope of this report.
*
A person not familiar with input/output models may want to study more
about them before attempting more complex applications of these results.
Readily accesible references are the books by Miernyk [5] and Richardson
[6].
31
Finally, there are some instances in'which a considerable amount of
analysis must precede application of the input/output model. As indicated
earlier, the latter can only predict impacts which result from changes in
final demand. Whatever change in the economy is desired to be analyzed, it
must first be expressed in terms of final demand changes in one or several
sectors. Careful analysis at this stage will payoff in maintaining the
integrity of the results which can be generated by using this model.
32
REFERENCES
1.
Cochran, William G. Sampling Techniques. John Wiley and Sons, New York,
1963.
2.
Collin, Theodore G. An Interindustry Analysis of the Effects of a New
Industry on the Public and Private Sectors in Clatsop County, Oregon.
Master Thesis, Oregon State University, Corvallis, 1970.
3.
Collin, Theodore G., Russell C. Youmans, and Herbert H. Stoevener. Impact
of a Major Economic Change on a Coastal Rural Economy: A Large
Aluminum Plant in Clatsop County, Oregon. Oregon State University,
Corvallis, 1970.
4.
Ives, Edward E. Input-Output Models Estimated from Primary Data: Sampling
Considerations and Parameter Variability. Ph.D. Thesis, Oregon State
University, Corvallis, 1977.
5.
Miernyk, William H. The Elements of Input-Output Analysis. Random House,
New York, 1965.
6.
Richardson, Harry W. Input-Output and Regional Economics. John Wiley and
Sons, New York, 1972.
APPENDIX 1
Clatsop County Processing Sectors
Sector Name/Types of Firms Included
1.
Logging: Firms Involved with the growing, harvesting, and hauling of
timber.
2.
Wood Processing: Firms producing lumber, paper, or wood products.
3.
Gillnet Salmon Fishing: Licensed commercial gillnet salmon fishermen
who reside in Clatsop County.
4.
Troll Salmon Fishing: Licensed commercial troll salmon fishermen who
reside in Clatsop County.
5.
Combination Troll Salmon Fishing: Licensed commercial fishermen fishing for salmon in addition to other fish (crab, tuna, etc.), who
reside in Clatsop County.
6.
All Other Fishing: Licensed commercial fishermen who reside in Clatsop
County, fishing for any fish except salmon.
7.
Salmon Processing: That proportion of fish processing firms that process salmon.
8.
All Other Fish Processing: That proportion of fish processing firms
that process all other fish except salmon.
9.
Agriculture: Farms, ranches, nurseries, and dairies.
10.
Manufacturing: All manufacturing firms except wood products and fish
processing.
11.
Lodging: Motels, apartments, trailer parks, and campgrounds.
12.
Restaurants: Restaurants, cafes, bars, taverns, and fast-food
businesses.
13.
Service Stations: Retail and wholesale fuel and accessories.
14.
Automotive Sales and Services: Firms selling or servicing automobiles,
motorcycles, farm equipment, parts, and accessories.
15.
Transportation: Trucking (except log trucks), buses, railroad, boats,
tugs, barges, port authority and air transportation.
34
16.
Communication: Telephone, telegraph, newspaper, and radio station.
17.
Professional Services: Medical, legal, engineering, accounting, and
consulting.
18.
Financial Services: Banks, savings and loans, credit bureaus, finance
companies, and credit unions.
19.
Construction: Firms preparing land, building structures, or repairing
structures.
20.
Retail and Wholesale Sales: Firms selling products such as , grocery
stores, art galleries, electric utilities or office supply stores.
21.
Retail Services: Firms selling services such as insurance, garbage
collection, beauty shops, or repair shops.
22.
Public or Private School: Education or training centers.
23.
Clatsop County Government: All agencies of the county government.
24.
City Governments: The governments of Astoria, Cannon Beach, Gearhart,
Hammond, Seaside, and Warrenton.
25.
Households: All private individuals in the county.
26.
Federal and State Agencies in the County: Federal and state agencies
located in and serving Clatsop County such as the Post Office or
the State Police.
In addition to the 26 processing sectors of the Clatsop County economy, five
other sectors are used in the transaction table. These sectors are rows:
27.
Federal and State Agencies Outside the County: Federal or state agencies
not located in Clatsop yet financed by Clatsop County taxes.
28. Businesses Outside the County: Firms outside Clatsop County which supply
Clatsop County businesses with goods and services.
29.
Households Outside the County: Private individuals outside of Clatsop
County which supply Clatsop County businesses primarily with labor
or capital.
30.
Inventory Depletion: Decreases in the inventory of Clatsop County
businesses. This entry is used to balance the table.
31.
Depreciation: The value loss from the aging of assets owned by
Clatsop County businesses.
35
Column
27. Federal and State Agencies Outside the County: Purchases by Federal and
State agencies outside Clatsop County of goods and services from
Clatsop County businesses.
28. Businesses Outside the County: Purchase by business firms outside of
Clatsop County of goods and services from Clatsop County businesses.
29.
Households Outside the County: Purchases by private individuals who
reside outside Clatsop County of goods and services from Clatsop
County businesses.
30. Inventory Accummulation: An increase in the inventory of Clatsop County
business. This entry is used to balance the table.
31. Capital Investment: The purchase of a major asset by Clatsop County businesses.
APPENDIX 2
CONFIDENTIAL
INPUT-OUTPUT QUESTIONNAIRE
Clatsop County
Oregon State University
Winter 1978
Firm `s Name:
Date of Interview:
Time Interview Started:
Hello, my name is A.M./P.M.
, I am working for Oregon State
University. We are conducting an economic survey for the Clatsop County Board
of Commissioners. If you don't mind I would like to ask you a few questions
about your business. The information you give is strictly confidential.
1.
First, I'd like to know, from the sale of what products or services your
business receives the major part of its income.
2.
Next, approximately what was your total business
income from all sales of merchandise and services
in 1977?
3.
Now I would like you to think a bit about who it is to whom you are selling.
We are interested mainly in finding out to what extent your sales may be to customers inside or outside of Clatsop County, and whether your sales are to other
businesses, private individuals, or various units of the government.
(a) First of all, what was the approximate amount or
percentage of your sales made to other businesses
inside Clatsop County?
$
(b) What was the approximate amount or percentage
of your sales made to private individuals or
households residing in Clatsop County?
(c) What was the approximate amount or percentage of
your sales made to governmental agencies including schools in Clatsop County?
$
37
Turning next to your sales going outside of Clatsop County, what was the
approximate amount or percentage of sales going to
(d) other businesses there?
$
(e) private individuals or households not residing in
Clatsop County?
(f)
agencies of the federal,or state governments and
local governments outside Clatsop County? 4.
$
$
Was your inventory of merchandise for sale higher ( ), lower ( ) or about
the same ( ) at the end of 1977 as it was at the beginning of the year?
(If the same skip to question 6)
5.
About how much higher or lower? $ 6.
Next I would like to ask you about the purchases for your business. On this
sector identification card (hand respondent sector identification card) are
listed various economic sectors from whom you may have purchased during 1977.
Would you please go down this list and tell me whether or not you purchased at
all from the sector and, if so, approximately how much you purchased? Please
note that we are interested only in the purchases you made for current use in
your business or for resale, not in any investment expenditures.
(Interviewer: Record amounts in Current Expenditures column of Expenditures
Table)
7.
Now please think about any investment purchases you may have made during 1977.
These are expenditures for any items which you expect to use for more than one
year such as machinery, equipment, and buildings. Again referring to the Sector
Identification Card would you tell me the approximate amounts, if any which you
spent in each sector?
8.
What was the approximate amount you charged for
depreciation in your business during 1977?
38
9. My final questions are about your taxes and similar payments made during 1977.
First, could you tell me about how much you paid for any business licenses
which you may have bought from
(a) your city government?
(b) your county government?
(c) any state government?
(d) the federal government?
10. Approximately how much did you pay to Clatsop County
for real estate and personal property taxes on your
business property during 1977?
11. Approximately how much did your business pay for
state and federal income taxes during 1977?
This is all the information we need at the present time. I would like to
leave a few additional questions with you. These are of special interest
to the Clatsop County Planning Commission. I hope you can find the time
to complete the questionnaire. We plan to stop by to pick it up in three
or four days. Thank you very much for your help.
The interview was completed at A.M./P.M.
I certify that the interview was taken with the firm listed above and that the
information recorded is a true representation of the interview.
Interviewer's Signature
39
1977 PURCHASES TABLE
Purchases for
Current Use
Investment
Purchases
1. Logging
$ $ 2. Wood processing
$ $ 3. Commercial gillnet salmon fishing
$ $ 4. Commercial troll salmon fishing
$ Sector
INSIDE CLATSOP COUNTY
5. Commercial combination troll salmon fishing
$ 6. All other commercial fishing
$ 7. Salmon processing
$ 8. All other fish processing
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ 9. Agriculture
10. Manufacturing
$ $ 11. Lodging
$ $ 12. Restaurants
$ $ 13. Service stations
$ $ 14. Automotive sales and service
$ 15. Transportation
$ 16. Communication
$ 17. Professional services
$ 18. Financial services
$ 19. Construction
$ 20. Retail and wholesale goods
$ $ 21. Retail services
$ $ 22. Public and private schools $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 23. Clatsop County government
24. City in Clatsop County
(which one? $ $ )
$ 25. Households
OUTSIDE CLATSOP COUNTY
26. Government
27. Businesses
28. Households
29. TOTALS (Complete after interview)
$ APPENDIX 3
Mathematics of Deriving Input-Output Coefficients
The general form of the transactions table is:
Purchasing Sectors
Local
2
o
tJ
1-)
0
CJ
Non-Local
1
2
x11
x12 """ xli
x21
x22 """ x2
x
lm
x2m
x
x
Total
Sales
X
ln
X
2n
•
•
•
•
1-4
x2,2 ... xki
xkm
xm,1 xm2 """ xmi
mm
x51,1
x
1
2
X
in
X
mn
o
•
0
0
Total
Purchases
where
xnl
xn2 """
x
nm
x
X
X
Xm...
X
n
1
2
• • • X
xi. = the purchases of the j
(i = row, j = column)
X. = E
1=1
th
sector from the i
x.. = total purchases for the j
th
X. = X. for i,j = 1, 2, ...
X. for i,j = m, m+1, n
th
th
sector
sector
1j
X.=Ex..=total sales for the i
j=1
Xi
X
n
nn
sector
41
The general form of the table of direct coefficients is:
Purchasing Sectors
0
4,
1
a
2
a
... k
2
1
a
11
a
21
12
22
... a
... a
lk
2Z
•
a2,1 ak2
akk
where
a.. = x.. X.
13
13 3
for
i,j = 1, 2 ... k
To derive the direct-indirect matrix, the linear equation for the sum of
.
1th sector is used:
total output for the 1
X.
1
=
E x.. + E x..
j =m 13
j=
1 13
if we set
n
E x..
13
j=m
Y.=.final demand (non-local demand)
1
the
X. = E x.. + Y.
13
1
j=1
Given that the direct coefficient:
a.. = x../X.
13 3
then
x..= a..X..
1.3
By substitution
X. =E a..X. + Y.
lj
1
1
j=1
The set of linear equations for the set of sector outputs can be expressed
in matrix forms as
42
X = AX + Y
where
X = a vector of sector outputs
Y = a vector of final demands
A = a matrix of direct coefficients
Solving for X
X - AX = Y
[I - A] X = Y
[I - A] -1 [I - A] X= [I - A] -1 Y
X = [I - A]
-1
Y
where I is an identity matrix.
The [I - A]
1
matrix is the Leontief direct-indirect matrix. It
describes the expected impacts upon Total Output (X) given a change in
final demand (Y).