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A STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF PERFOFJ^/iMCE
CM IHDIVIKJAL GOALS
06-62
'.filliara Fc
Pounds
A STUDY OF THE
O:^
EFFECT OF PERFORM/WCE
INDIVIDUAL GOAIS
by
V/iliiara F.
Pounds
Dscejisborg 1852
Kassachusatts Institute of Technology
Tj'.is
paper is a resaai^ch memorsndutn for private circulation and
corniTiant-,
It shculd not ba quoted or cited v.'ithout written consent
of the aiithoro
Fxind of
Tlis
research is supported by the Slo?Ji Rssearch
the Sdicoi of Industrial Management st Ho 1^ T,
Introduction
Since the earljf 1940 'a thare has bean a grow--
ing theoretical Interest, in
E^io.nagors.
This int-srasti
lios
tl\&
probleias facod by industrial
taken tho forra of an iricraaeing
allccatiiori of rsaouroc-ss to tlio study of these problerca in
universities and the business coitE-unity,
as a result of
this effort- a large and crowing body of thQov}j ap::iarently
of vcluo to operating managers has been gensrated,
efficiency
vyitii ;=;hich
Tha
this tiieory is being ti'ansformod into
effective managerial &ctiOii is
fio
low, bo^-Qver, as to sug-
gest that certain be^.evioral assusiptioas in the noraatiYG
theory may bs incorr-acto
In particular, it is essusied in most
iiornatiir-a
thaory that thQ objecti'/e of ell operating inauagers v.dthin
an induatrial organisation is the KaziEisstion of proflto
The processes wh-oreby organisations, including the managsrs
in quastion. aeccmplish this objoctiva is, hoivex^er, not
iacluuecl in the theory o
It is here, I balio-ie, that the
heart of the so-called problem of iiaplamsntation lisso
Managers, in fact, attempt to cont3:ibnte to
profit, or scBiothing like profit,, by dealing with a set of
relativoly indepsndent
pj^oblCTig.
defined by themsalves or by
the organisation surro'anding them,
of Golutions
to undarstand the
which individual msnagsrs
v/ill
kindes
naturally Gcoapt
z-
onci
utilixQ ora must first tindortake
process by
vvhicli
t-o
understand the
taoy defino fchoir prob3,GruSc
This study will suggest
neasures recelTod Xroni the
psrematers called goals
tlaat
oxivlroniaoiit
ivhicJi
problems ar3.SQ
-ivlien
fell to satisfy
av& oDtablished
b.y
t'o-Q
rdana-
In particrJ.ax', this study will be addressed to the
gero
procssa of goal ruodif ioation sa
•resdbaek.
Its objeotivs is to contribute to
csl undorstandins of tho process
defined
r-38ult cf pa?f ornianee
tlia
"by \<ialch.
oux'
thsoreti-
pr oldens ara
fc
The concept of a goal has such a sordid philosop'nioal past J
hoX'V3"'jar,
that
coiis5,d arable
dGBor-ibG tho particiua.? theoretical
care vdll
fr^ia-avjor-Ic
t>Q
taken to
within which
It is the intent of this
this study will be eonductsdo
doscriptioxi to differsntiato the torm £oal as usod in this
atudy
froni its raors cla-ssieal
vVhen
definiticno
one attsrcaptB to uMsratand or explain
a pa.Tticular eTont takes placo^ ho
Can
h-3
intax.'pret3d in t?/o tvays,
vfixj
finds that tho question
Th© word vrh^ io ecibigr.ous
-.
It oan he ansvjored either la terms of tho purposes ser^^ed
pro~
by the event or in terras of tho prior conditions
0,116.
ceases ??hich pradotorEiinsd or causod the event o
^n ey.plana-
tion based on tho first interpi'ststioa is called telsoiogicel
M.3--
while an o3:ol£n?-tion cased on tha second Ib scmatiinoa
In this section tno implica-
fiescribod es mschsn.istiCo
tiona of these
t/so
moaas of ezp3-ai;.ation
v^^ill
ba
l)r-ioA?4.y
eizplaxnod and discussed in t'na context of hiimsn claoisioii
malcingo,
Pliilosop]jtQrs ,hevo f ouncl
no lojiloal
basis,
for
oliolcQ betvvaan ths fceloologioal and mociiariistio raodes of
In the
explanaticiiQ
Unit
botii
modes load to v;hat appear
to bo unsnsx'jara'blQ questions «
If a bakor bakes bread for
ths pxxx-pose of SQlling it^
if he sells it for tli© pur-
ano.
p039 of raaking Bonej, ana ha
of buying
fooiS.,
v;antjs
money for the p-UTposs
clee.rly thia strin?^ of
c^b
joctives Qan bo
OAtendGd o-aaily to a quastioa of ultiuats purpose
e,t
least cvirrently, impcasible to answer.
forO;.
It seems the3?e->
purpobao
On %he other hand,
is a balder
5
if © baker bakas bread bsceusa
and hs is a baker because he choso to ba^
CODS one J ar^ be chose to beccsis on© beeauBS his father
£1
1/
*"
is,
that teieologieal ssiplamatlons are bounded by our
kno^iiledgo of ttitiiiiate
iiQ
vihlGJx
bakor,
'.vc
find this string of sEplpnetions 3.eeA'XnQ
i!?as
ln(^T.oy:&hlj
For a mora CG-mplste dlfjcussion of these terms se©:
Bortrand Russell, A Kjstory c^ Ijestern PMiPS.^?]},^*
Siraon and Schuster ^ 194dj J) o" HB"; i:nd Ec'^lTl BraifirA'aite
So^lQ?:..tifJ.^R iiE^LS:^Jil3LS Gaabridge lTni^"ex^s5.ty Press,
19ijS7 ClTaptarTOo
:.4.
to a quGstion ot first cause v;hich ia also iniposaible to
an.T.var*
Thus meoha.'aistic eisplcnations are bounded bj our
Kno-.yledge,
of ult,.lmat8 parposSj
not.
bu-i;
of original causOo
Daspita tbo logical d5.saclvant-as33 of
of eriplsnstion,
find thao
v;o
nicst
"ootji
theory can be roughly
catsgorlaed as eibbor teleological or nschanistic.
ien mecbQsiics
Ik.
'^vhora
nodes
1^0?:?t.on-
tho aolJions of bcdios are oJtplainsd
terms of prior properties like mass^ valocity, and
tlio
foi'oes acting on tliea is clearly meohaaistic. \^Ml9 eaono-^
mic theory
tvliioli
assurass baUavlor will accoiiiplish the pur-
poao of utility aaxlaisation is obviously tsleologicalo
lu Bcmo QaseB, tlieorisa in ©ech moda
devisQd to ozpl&in.the samo phsnoaeriOBp
light rsy through a
leiL-B:
systQEij for oxsaple,
pleinsd both machaaistically in
properties of
tiis
time required
terrfis
boon
path of a
can bs
es:-
of tho refractive
systea and the cbaracteriatiGa of light,
end toleologieally in terms of
tlio
Tiia
l!.ave
for-
a Qlven dostisaationo
tiio
path
vvliich v/ill
miniiaisG
light to get from q gi^en source to
Kepler
de-«'ised a
teleological thooi'y
of planetary motion 'which precaded Newton's msclianiGtic
theory e' -Thus it appears possible, in principlSj at least,
to diocovor dual theories;
on-a raacliariistiG
cal, by whicn sveiits can ba axplPiinod.
and ono tblsologi-
If this analysis
5.s
correct, en attompfe to dooido in general which mods of theory
is sppropriatQ to a givsu question is a fruitless
oj:ie
f?incQ
,Q.
givon siiTt'iciono effort, thoorios in eitlier or
A
ooulcl presi?,mably be dovisado
jsuch
Isotli
moclos
cere appropriato
qusoGilon porbaps is, givoa that no satisfactory theory exists,
Vjliai;
kind of uheory seecis nost appropriate to
"bulXOl?
to
attfsaipt
This question grents the possibility of lisoful
theories in either-
aoijropriat© critar"-
eacl s^Agr^ests tiiC
rrioda
ion should be ona of efficiGncvo
In tho
malcirig,
att6iiipt
to
da-'7isQ ttioories
h-jsian
decision
taleologicel t'nsories are particularly appealingo
By intrQspsotica most of U3 are
are strongly affaoted
D-iako
of
bj'
ev7aro
that
tba goals
viS
tlie
deciaions
It sqshjs
seeko
appropriate therefor© to attsmpt to imaorstand deoiaion;
in.g
in torms of such goals o
goals
vihicli vvill b8- tiaaful
TI15
v,'a
snaJc-
search for a g^noieal set of
iu unclerstQiiaing
tiio
decision
pi'CGoaa Las ^xad lisiited success, l20TfeYer<.
To illustratQ tas process of a search for predictive
f;;oals,
coiisiaox- tlia
prclilejn of d3¥is5-ng a
ccd thGory which v.lll predict
tiis
toleologi-
form of a body of watorv
Moat observations indicate, that a body of i^star seeks to
iuinialsQ the distanotj frora its esntsr of gravity to ths
center of
tfcs
oljjecti^e
irvill
a
theory bssad on iveter hai'ing this
frequsntly aaka corifoct predictions „
Suppose
on© r:sre to jislf fill a bucket i^ith v/ater and v/hiri
hovi'ovar,
Sj
Qarth and
—
For
nore ccinplote discussion of sosis of the issuoa of
these tv^o raodss of theory ssa: C„ Go Hample and Po Or/osnhsim, "Tho Lor^ic of i5r.plenatioi:i". Philosoohy of Scieiica.
^— ^
«=-—-—»•'
VoXo 15, 1946„
e,
'
—
Es would observe
it suitaoly arovrnd his head„
Ijliat
watoi'
woiad stay in tha buckat at the top of tho arc sven though
tlie
diatanoQ fro:a its center of /gravity to the center of
In this
the earth is not rainirrdzed.
casSj,
tha tiioory fails
To explain this e?ent one raight invent an ad
for weter in
i?;hi'i'iins
buckets or, if he
Iioc
c,
objective
tiiougitt of it,
SGHQFalise the purpose attributed to v/ater as one of
r-iini-
mising its potential energy subjact to constraints o
This
latter theory v;ouid explain both piiesiomeaa in terms of
tha
sQCje
goal ami
'.Toxild.
as a
reoiij.t.
he a aors pov/afful
on© than the original, qs long as the conoapts of potential
snorgy and tho constraints
v/oro
operationally raQaaiirablQo
Taleoiogloiil theories of deoision raaking hav©
ariGou/itared r>na3.ogov.s probleraso
>milQ In situations of
car-tainty people decide to chooss tho hishor of ti/o alterna-
tive amour.ta of raonsy, in uncertain ones they fyaqriently
don't chooce the maximusi esipocted val-aOo
.imi?.ins
Tco
o:qjlciln thicij
goal attributed to psopla in this aituatioxi haa
bean modified in two ivayso
in ohQj another ad hoe goal
of uncertaiaty -aToidsnce is offered Y»hich is in the sscis
spirit Rs an ad hoc theory of
v.'ater
in v.'hirling buekstSo
In the other, the iadividual's goals ere ganoralised to a
aeaexire called titility ivhich is similar in kind to tho
geiiei-alisation to potential onergy in the water cesoo
chief disadvantaga of utility as a pradictive deviCQ is
The
the
yias-
•!«,-, -n nr
oporaoionailg'
cMi-^-iic- it.."'
a.s>.o
jiiSiiSUXiAg,
-!-^.
li'-n
-s.^-'
ptt^Gm•ot.
>-v.w„-_,.
to
Burins tho psst so^aral ^©oxs tharo
to^3 arioan
o-?i
c^.o
80 con-
IiaB
©aiargod
of a faaling of alSBatlsfaotion
T'dtii
prosroos
tlieoriQS of doaieioa
and premise in tho classioei toleolosicai
firsli.tiiae of a isr&aod»
makins and ttio e:w'xl.lahllit7 fox tha
Tajs v#ork
deRcribQa
aM
propog?©d la tliis paper Is intcnasd
lasoliaaistio tHe^^JTo?
to oont^ibutQ to ^he g^^oi^las bo^y of
si.i>ii.ji.ii«i-jii
^
aM^^Si^iSal S3i.noea%
I'
'ii»"
i^-TPii&'g
m^m^ lESSSd^ S2li^^
Tolo XLIJ^, Jun© 1959 J ppo 2e&-abbo
He Ho Cyart and Jo G. mvGh, Ml§SiS^^ Si£C£Z
Pyentica Hail, fortiioomj.xig i9&o.
i~i:>?:a.
^ B®
^•e^
it
Hechanist.ic
."The
orv;
of Goal
F^H^^^^
the concept of
Most mechanistic t.aoorles find
amount of evi.v substaniiial
u.Bnec9ssaryo
purpose to be
and thsr^afora human
dence siisgosi;3 tbBt human bshavior,
=^hen ono attempts a
decision making, is goal oriented.
bo mast therefora
mecbanistic theory of decision making,
fashion esplain tbe
eitbor deny tbis avifioiice ox in some
in terms of
concept of a goel aecbanisticaiiy, ioQo,
chosen herso
prior events. The latter course is
organisra is capable
If ws aaaviac that tbo himan
of the total information
of receiving only a small sample
further that it is
SYS liable from the ea^ironmsnt , and
only a sa^all fraction
capable of prouessing (ettandlng to)
receive, and that this
of the inforsiation %7hich it can
deciaion maxing,
procossod inforn^ation is the basis for
we nesd a theory of
then to understand decision making
capacity is aliohow the limited inforiaaticn processing
how the. limited receivcated to received information and
tha e'^/ailable information.
ing capacity ia aliocatsd to
two coding processes
The hypothoaia advanced h'sra is that
fratasv/ork for aneh a theory.
ca;i provide at least tho
of eategorisa=
Tho first coding procoss i» that
the decision maker codes
tion. This is a process ^.hereby
be called variable
the raw data h8 recei^so into what might
-9-
classes.
For
e:Earaple,
an oxacutlve in
a
firn attends
to a sat of reports on such classes of vareiablos as share
labor cost per unit,
of raarlcot,
force siae, forectist
These vai-iabls classes contein far loss
dainand, etCo=
injformation
vjorl:
tlian.
is availsble in his anvircnaent end as
such his system of categorias conctitutos
v.'hich
a filtGi'
he coritrois the iiiforaiatioii ha recaiveso
aiaplss can be
by
Other
ex-"
constructed vihloh suggest that the categori-
gation process is a canerel filtoring; raothod not confined
to oxeoutix'os or sianegsrial behaYioro
The process by v;hich eategorios ere constructed
is o.escribed in ths psychologicel literature under the
gsnevral title of concept forxiiation 2nd baa for the most
part bsen studied in the context of a labox-atory situation
vvhsre other v,aTts
of ths decision
';rocftfis v,-are
largely
It 13 suggsstsd, however, that the theory
supprcissodc
beginning to smsrgo from thet
vroric
will fit into a general
theory of decision making aa the fir&t of tho
tv;o
coding
processes bsing dascribsd ha.re„
^i-ssiming that
is codod into
v^
information from the environiaent
set of meaauras on a woll defined (but not
necessarily constant) sst of variable classes, tha next
problem facing ths decicioti aiaker is to allocctQ his limited
5/
For a description of this woi-k see: Erimer, Gcodnov/, and
Austin, ^ Stud^ oi; Yhi'?king > V/iley, 1956^
-10-
prccessins abilities over this set of variables
o
It is
by tho
suggested that this allocoticn is accoaiplisliad
ona by v.-hich YGri==
second coding process. This process is
by moans of
ables classes ars coded into t^^o catogorios
values called goals
iiaasuras
'f
»
en'
variablo fflessas ers constontly ro-
workfo:fC9
ceived froa the em^ironeQnt, e.go,
nien,
estimated shera of market
=
62;^^,
oto,
si?.o -
100
Theae measures
eppropriete variable
aro GOEipared v.dth goal values on the
a aimplo
class and, at least as a first approximation,
results. If a meaisuro excoe-ds its goal
categorization
dofinition of tho
valuo (where or.oeod is dof inad in the
member of tho oot
Yariablo olaaa) this variable class is a
no further
of variable cl^^ssas which requires
processinso
If
>
lasaaura received,
on
x^ha
infomation
other hand, a goal exceeds th8
the
this vrariabie class is a vi.ember of
oonstitiites problj^, and
set of variable classso v;hic.a
roquiras information processing of the
probleio.
solving
reduce th3 diffor^ioao. find q bshaYicr routino to
6/
The execution of
goal.
tho
aiid
msasura
tha
boUi:'een
once
type
constitutes
the rcutino discoYored by this processing
observsble behavior
6/
Solving
GaneralProblera
A. Nev;all and H. A. Simon, "A
arid i^iiiOiwti^n,
Coiapu-oers
Program -^or a Coiiputor",
Svly li'60, poo lO-l^o
.'o...
w,
.==11
variables
Tho existence of goals on each class of
processing called
d09s not guaranteo that the information
to the information
for v.'ill bGir any particular resemblance
particular
processing capacity of t.hs decision makoro A
idla tha
satting of goal values could overloacl or leave
will
problem solving machanism, Thssa tv/o possibilities
be considered separately^
such
Assume for the moia«nt that goal settings are
that
desiaiida
for iD^orKation processing exceed the decision
maker's capacity to do tais v^orko
viag
thiis
Tvjo raaohanisraa
typo of allocation probiea exist „
for sol^
Ths first is
thereby remain
to ignoi'Q one or more variable classes and
ignorant of tha fact that capacity is e:^ce©dad.
second is to modify goals
do'^nv.-ard
The
in such a way as to
of ths
bring the numbor cf probloms within the capacity
procossins syatem„
It is fmggestsd that both tiethoda of
reaolving this problsm may b^ usad.
processAssuming convorsaly that tho information
at a given goal
ins capacity is not being fully utili'^sd
to the decision
asttins, two alternatives arc also opan
variables to
maker, lie can either enlarge tho numbsr of
goals on the existing
\7hi^h ho will attend or he can raise
classes.
may be
Heive,
usedc-
too,
it is suggested that both mechanisms
'
Willie the
J.
w
four mechanismf. Just dQScrlbed v/ould
accomplish an alloGatlon of processing cepability, these
clQsoriptions offer no ;lnsii;ht into the process by v;hlch
these
accomplish this allocationo
la'eGhanlsris
It iSj
therefore, to tho problem of goal modification and th6
probloiJi of
controllirig. tho set of variables classoa to
vvhioh WQ will now turno
Asstiaing as a first approximation that thQ in-
formation recaivins avA procasaing system ia aeaiisntial,
a single sequential nrocess must bo cspablo of performing
the work of the four tnechanisas Just describado
ViTailo
z/
it is uncniostionabiy trua that the cat-
Qgcrisaticn process d'oscribed earlier is carried on in
con.juncticn M'ith tag modiricaticn of goals and '.'ariebls
sets, it will be assumed for aimplicity that the total set
of
variables olassss i3 gi-zen and will remain fixed,
Tho
follcv;ing theory is sviggested for the wQchaniEius dascrib^sd
above „
Soe Fi,gure 1,
The
of all variable classes and Qssocisted
Slit
goal values ia stored in a
raeinory dsv'ioe.
The decision
maker has a priority scheae v/hich ordora tho aoquanco in
2/
a ganeral dieicuasion of thsse E'ochaniarus and their
IJarch and Siiiiionj
ituplioations for bohavior aog;
?o:c
Orfjanizfitions
.
V/ileyj
1559
-13'
SriT 1 r oniae n1;
'^
7K
3:
Coiicopt StructiAre
HeaeurQS on Variable
C1SS3C3
?r5.orlt7
Hiilci
y/-
Head Meaaure on lMe:st
Variable (as defined
Dj priority -iaile).
Store
—
Goaparo Loaaur©
>?
Obsorvable
Bshavior
T,'ith
,Goal for this Variable
Class
-^
/
Satisractory
Unsatiafactory
^.\
Goal
cation
MocUri
T
!
-14
which hQ
vrlll p/ctond
to
-the varioiis
variable e.lossgs„
Schemes such as a series of reports at different frequQn:ies
like weekly labor reports, daily accident reports, and annual
subaidiary are suggestive of formal procedures
reportjSol' a
used to ecccmpllfsh this
soqv:6ucing.-,
Cnco a measure on a
variable class is received, it is compared with the stored
goal valusj Tor that class o
If the porforraance is unsetig---
factorvj problem solving ecstivity is baguno
nhen this
processing is complete, an action prcgrac may have result^
ad and exocutlon of this prcgraia is undertEken,
may require scmg time to discover tha effect
03T
Since
it
this action
prograia, the goal for this x^ariable class is modified in
accordancs with the outoorAQ predicted hv the prob3.em solving routine and is stored
Ono can raaho
foi'
sorfte
tho nest reading on perfcrsance,
general propositions about
the parformanco of such a routine^.
For Qicamplej one xvciHd
expQCt the
the loop invo3„ving
tini^ rsqi>i.r-3d to' Q3:^^cute.
satisfactory
pox'f orraanee to
roquiro loss tiiaa than the
loop involvins unsatisfactory pex'formaneo and the concomsiitarit
iaent
problem solving ^'outinoSo
yislda maafmrsa
values,
on^d
virhich
would expect it
Thus ^vhsn the environ^
excesd thair associated goal
v^'ould
he pOKsible to get farther
down tha priority list of var labia clasaes than
\Ajculd
bo
poasiblo ir the enviroiument
..oro
Tha priority
belOY. goal values.
providing raoaaures
nao
for controlling
tiie
would, depending upon the
next variable to oe consiaered
classes which
environment, detern^ine the sot of variable
will
'ue
evaluated
the decision
It is interesting to note that
environaiantal
himself detertriines v;hethar the
associated goal valuos
neasures er© above or 'Delow the
rulOo If, ^"or
through his choica of a goa}. modification
arast-^
v^hich is satisfactory ^mder the
Eialcar
3:i:a:nple,
a moa3Ui:e
aharply raised hof ore
ing soal reoulte in the goal being
that ovor tima this
it is stored, it is quite iiksly
thus constitute a
Yarlahlo will heco^e unsatisfectory and
cT-iniilarly, if the goal associated
problera in the fiituro.
currsntJ.y a prohle-ai is
•with a '/ariahle clsas vjhich is
action is
sharply lowered vihen oorrecti-fa
this action
^/vill
ii.nderte.ken,
alaoat surely ha successf-a.1.
Thus the
..ith the priority pxo»
goal modincatio2i acheme interacto
the set of variables
cess and the enviroruaant in controlling
attend and the amount
to t^hioh the decision malcor will
will undertake.
of problesi solving activity he
have heen dGscribed
To Bui^mar-iso, threa procsssas
the infomation the
v^hich, acting together w3Jj. control
his limited problem
decision n^aker tscoItog and allocato
-15=
solving ability to a limited
n\iK.bor
of problem verlableso
The first of tlioae procassoa ia that of categorisiationo
The second I3 a rjiiority assigiiiaent process, end the third
is a goal nodificatiou process
If thesa three procesaas
can ba supported by onpirical ovidenes a long step %7ill
have been taken
malcinsc
goals are
to-wa:;:'cl
a
mechanistic theory of human dooision
Indeed, the thoory dsscr-lbsfi above sxis^^esta that
detei'SiiinQd bjr
properties of th© decision maker
and his en-^viromr^ent and that teleological ass umptions ara
not nocossary for an underatandirg of goal oriented human
bahsTiorc
'17-
mechanisms
In carrying out research into the
first
cleGcribed abova, the resoarchsr must
sat of variable clase.ea to ^vhlch ha
v='ill
datermna
a
attend and then
oonstruct some goals Tor his invest igatl on o
It Is oon«
into these processes
coivablo, therefore, that the research
resoerch itself would
could provide the data on ^vhich the
bs hasedo
wiiil©
The properties of such an undertakiGg,
presant at least to
fascinating to contemplate, appear at
a rather
of success o
be too complax to yield much hope
A set of \^Gri =
mora prosaic approach is plannsd insteado
but the processes
abloR Y;ill ha chosen and goals defined,
v/ill bs left undefined.
of thsse choicoB and dafinitions
Three basic processes have bean dQscribad:
modification.
categorisation, priority assigrH^ont, and goal
last of theso thrao
T'hlB study mil be directed at the
This decision is made larga^
processea, goal modification.
is tho most appropriate of
ly because it appears that this araa
a ainglo variable
tha three to study because it requires
two processes require
claa« to operate, ^vhereas tha other
appears thst aa
two or moro variable classes, /dso it
will be a
understanding of goal modification processes
t.70 prccesBes.
to an underetanding of the other
proi^oquieito
.18-'
study has
of efficiency, tMs
Thus largely for reasons
modification aroa^
been limited to the goal
v;ili ^e ooncarnQcl
Within tbis area the study
performance on goals, not of the
only v^ith the effect of
variables on goals o WMle not
effect of othor Kinda of
it is suggested
desoribod in the section on theory,
independent . On the conthat vax-isble classes 'are not
to ass-oine the general process
trary, it aeema reasonable
hierarchical ao that variable
of categorization ia
lovela of abstraction from
clasaea are defined at varioua
goal
information. One would e.^poct
the rav; am^iromasntal
classes at all levels
values to be assisnea to variable
on one
.^ a raault, goal modification
of this hierarchyo
either from information
class of variables might result
information about another
about that variable class or
-.^^^;!.^^
are related hierj^Ti'-i
"o'-33
^oj.j.
t^na
variable ciase vvhoai'' aeiino-ciou
and 6oal in question.
arohicellj id.th the variable class
feedback of iBXori.ation on the
Goal modification' due to
defined v.ill do defined
variable cla.s for v.hich it is
Goal ruodifica^
on the gcale
ae the effect of performance
other variable classas ^ill
ticE due to information about
en the
h^fivprchical
V
-''•^•<-r.^
aiorari..uj.v.'a„ strvicture
bo defined as -Ghe ei.j,oct o.•;--,
,
r,'-.
r,-^-
goal
.:
^
^,«
<->>',
c^
'-ifuA^-'
the effect of perforn--
•u ^
^* ^v>
^T^f-T-ast o
of int^^xas^o
sub.iect
anc8 on goals will be tne
'^hia
choice
=19'
problem
purpose of simplifying the
is nade largely for the
studied in the context of a single
into one
..^nich
can be
variable classo
Y.'hile
this study is
the domain of interest of
theory to which it propose,
considerably narro^ver than the
this simplification is a
to contribute, it is felt that
oontr-ibution of thia study to
realistic one and that the
be a valuablQ one.
tho mora gansral theory vdil
^£
lii^teratu;^
or theoretical
Thore has been littlo eapirical
modification
sub.jact of goals or their
v^^ork done on the
branches of acionca noat con^
through experience. In those
economics and psychology, the
corned ^vith decision mekins,
for tho most part assumad
goals of tha decision nakar are
classical oconomic theory this
to ba fixed and known. _^In
theory
explicit r-" In much of psychological
a33VUP.ption is
explicitly but laado none the leas.
thi. aasi^ption ia mado loss
classical (tsloologicel)
The behavioral basis of
from ^hich the reoxainder
economics is a aet of asau^ption3
Difforencos of opinion continue
»
of the theory is deduced
by ^hich thi. sot of exio-ois
to bo heard as to tho criteria
empirical tests to vhich
should ba selected and aa to tha
8/
^
J.
n
Ho Henderson ana R-
-.
iSo
— -——
Tboory,,
Avtoflconomic
•.,r^-r,r-!+
~^v-uandt,
&iiS.iidi!_—_^
kcGravriiill, Kev; Torlc 1958.
?,
.5
'20=
concern of classical economiats
they s)ma.d bo subjoctr"^ The
relevant to ttris study.
for goals tliougli real, is not
of econoi:aie beha^'ior
R^DCsntly a nochanistic theory
has been sugse3te.r"^n
v;ln.ich
goals of the typo dascribod
important part of the theoretl^^
in an earlier section forsi an
work on goal formation pro^
cal structure , Little empirical
and the authors of that
ceas has been carried cut, i^cy^mver,
the need for a study of
theory hava o.^:plicitly recosni^ed
described in this paper has largethis phouoracnon. The study
theory f^nd takes as ono of
ly accepted the structure of this
that
its objectives a ooatribution to
vvorlCc
psycfeolosists ha^^e not bs-sn directly inter-
ested in the processes of goal inodif ioetiorio
for the most part utilised
tivo
They have
valued re^vard systearH
punishment.
vrlth vast differencoE betir/een re-ii'ard and
electric
ahoclLi5,
huagar, etc. as punishiaant; and food, lOTe,
lack of shock, etCo ea rewards.
9/
Oogc-s
With such eztrems effects
Hl L^'lJiJ^ilt
F^r one Dosition see: Uo Frisdrsan, Sssa^_
x.
J9a3,^Caapuer
Chicago^Press,
EconcgicG, University of
For enoth
ln£
of
__
FcVthcoSing,
^
_„
196'o,
Chapter do
H. evert ana J. G, March, Behavi£ISi I^M^SZ 2l
prentice-Hall, forthcoming, 195i5,
)a/ Ro
^^
2HS*
21^
the assumption of the goal state vjhich the decision ma-cer
seek<?
to accomplish is reasoriab-ly cloar^at least to
»jade in
psychologists end no explicit iittcmpt has beer
their work
allow fox errors in this re?>sct..
;;'^
goals
TJiiis
have not beon explicitly deelt with \^ psvcliology any
more than in economics.-,
Thore is one
.
artia
or tho psyoholosicci litera-
tura which is relevant to a study of goal modification
even though that vms not its intent
In 1950, Hoppe sufigeated a
nev;
Drooedure for
tfiining a behavioral measure of parsonalityo
ure
v;as
His proced-
carried out by Dembo in 1931 end his uioosure
givsn the
naraa
in,
a
laboratory situation
v:a.s
This nama was
levsl of Bspix-aticg.„
strongly suggested by the iV^xparimontol procedure:
subject
ob--
a
asked to perforn a
is
sequenca of similar tssks w/isre his psrfornance can he
moesured along a simple
10/' F-
H'JDpa /'iCrf olg und
par:?ors:isnce
scale
i'.iiaiisrf oI^k, "
„
Q = G-
,
timSp
pg yp,-^ol.pg,i g cho
£2i^.2ilH£ia> 1S20, Vol .44, pp 1-5 a.
3J.y
T.
Dorabo,
ISSi/vDar
£?/,2Skol-Osi-.siIil§.
Jirge.r
als Dynaniisohes ProelaaiSj"
For.3oh ung 15, 1-144.,
'ZZ^
distance, nuabar or errors, etCo
task he is eivsn
a raaasuro
i^toT coHiplGting eacH
of his pen'ormance (score)
performancQ he proposes
and aslcQd to state tho levol of
The score to which he
bo accomplish on tho next tasK„
his level of aspira^-^
aoplres on the next tasv is dof ined as
va-lters siuce have
tion for that task. Decibo and all
level of psr-formance
defined loTal of aspiration as "the
vnieTfamiliar tssk ^A^hich an individual explicitly
in a
takes to reach''
is
Despite tha fact that this definition
the word
ally identical to that implied for
virtu^-^
£^ in
despite tho fact that
earlier sections of this paper, and
in
ressarch into the phonoraancn is reported
e ;terisivQ
directly useful
the litoratura, this literature is not
modif icatioa."-^
to ono interested in the i^rocess of seal
aspiration hava boon
Since those interested in level of
dofining a measure
primarily concerned vdth the problem of
the rosults of thoir
of personality, they hava tranaformad
experimants oa each suhjact into
1
V
"'
a
single statistic \^hich
of
niay ha uaefva in tasting a theory
'^uSea
p.
hov;ovar.
s'oal moaification,
It
the procass of
'23"
13/
agsregatod tho task-to^task beliayior„
Tliis
statistic
its conaistanoy
studied across tasks and subjocts and
under various inwith other personality raaesures and
the prasent study
fluences- WS.S noted, Unf ortunatoly for
v;a5
and aspiration level
th« task^-to-task data on perforaanca
is enti3.'aly missing in
tlie
literature
shows
Tlieoreticaily as wall, the literature
Kodificationo 'S^o
little concern for tho £roc6ss of goal
But the
authors address themselves to tho problemo
neithor an operationtheories proposed ere toleological end
suggostod to ba rele-^ant,
al means of maasurins the Varieblea
IS/
Tho particular statistic usod
n
v?he.r6
v;a3
the follovdngo
'-'^
D - average dirfereaco score
- total numbsr of trxexs
n - trial numbs
n
H ^"1 = Esoiratioa level for cnal
n
- pert onsance level for trial ^ .
Is'
,„,„.,x
--
Pj^
^A/
"Level of Asoiration and Dsciaion Making",
ilk^i^ksi Hevie^, 64, 1957, pp 253=^252.
<--
siQ^el
nor
a
Kiigbt
theory cf the process MhQTGh'j ths subject
th& prasoriiDaa e^'aiuations is GuggsstQcl.
c^rry
ou-ii
tliose
theories of process v/bich are clesGriDed in
Tiius
tiie
to
litsratura on laTel of aspiration are not relevant
this inquiry
Several authors obser"?"Qd almost in passing
gucgsss and
that aspiration le-vols tended to rise on
fall on failur©o
'X'hese
observations appear
-co
consul-
goal modification.
tuts the state of our smpirical kno-.vl6dg9 of
15/
^'
Jo Do _SranK:,^
of this "work ses:
^
Aspiration",
P£S2£Saoei'
''HocGjit Stucli©3 of LQ-?el of
cal Bxaieti-aj 1941, pp.. SlB-225o
?or a
s^3JB2•a^y
85^
«»£i»i«*'
In vie?; of the lack of appropriate
dalia on
'Gli©
proccidure has
goal inofiification procose., en exosr-issntal
boen dsaigviea to flolA
of this proesdura,
aaaig^i
-;>jill
t^he
auov-
data.
Follc^lng a daacriptioa
consitler-ations vmioh led to this
ba aiscuBsedo
AftQV roadlng a
detailed set of instruc-
the perforciance he
tiona'^a sulDJeat is asked to indicate
hopos to GOhie^Q on
iadioated in
]iis
tlia
first cf a se-iea of trials.
i.s
inotructioas tha porforsianca laaasuros,
Ha indicates, are in
ana th^5i*Qfcr6 the goal I'alua which
ais firat goal
units o^ dollars and corrts, Ea writes
trial
Yaltie in a blanlc opposite
Yided for tuo purposeo
xnmbor ona on a foria
pro-.
Tho sspariffisnter then compares
nunbs? ens vdth a
ta© subject's goal value for trial
ooasure£.„ If thQ
preYicualy prepared list of performance
tho aubjoot
exceeds perfcrnianco Ysiue ha tells
If the perfonsance
that h6 -lost^' o^ the first trials
tho Buhjoct that ha
value exceeds the goal value he tolls
If the subject ^von he ciroles
'^woa- on the first trial.
^ritea a number ona beside
the goal TQluo on tho form and
casa to
Ha thsa procseaa is oithor
the circled valuo.
P-oal
?al-ao
two, and the px-ocessa
inclicato his goal for trial ntimber
continue So
**
Apponais Ao
trial and
Uaknoi^ to the suoject the cost psr
the parar-atei's of
BBleotad
t.o
porforaance data diatrubutlon
tiia
i.are
game quite benign, ioSo, a wi^a range
laako tlie
net oarninss ovar the
of goal values viouid yield poaitiva
course of tne QJsperinioato
Witl^in this constraint a variety
used in the er.pa?imsnt
of trial costs and parameter's vmre
if any, of aucT. changes on the goal
to reveal
tlaa
effect/
mcaiflcaticn process
<,
believed to
FiSUX-6 So ind.iGates the r-slationship
and tho theory
esist batv^Qsn this ©^iperimantal procsdurs
and rsprossnted by Flgur© lo i^ig»
disoussea on pages 8^a6
ura
1.
for convenience,
tli3
oTor
is reproauoecL in Figurs So
^lie
tfao
title "Thoovr
otHer cliaerara in Figure a„
represents
e^^parimQiit o
aams process as it ^ould apply to ths
instructions
Concept structure is provided Ir^ tha
only one -oriablo
and tae priority rule is trivial aincQ
is
relevant to psrfomance. Problem solving
Glae.s ia
kBo^a to be predster^trivial sinoa tha perf orsianoc data is
tlis only part
TbuB tfo^ ecal aodification routine is
luin^^a.
of tha ps=aoe0s
i?vhie^ tlio
subject must consider.
^^© espori-
p-ocoas and oaly thia pro^
K9nt thoref ac8 -iolds data on thie
oe.'is
situatioiio
in aa otiiex-wise vex'y structureu
several clioicos mada in tho design of
lao^al i.ituation deacrva
^irx-IofsQ inforiaation
coi=n:eiito
Tho feedbaclc of siKiplo
on psrfcrmanc6
altoxnativ33 availablOo
It
ttcs
tlie 0>'p0ri"
x^as
oiLl.y
one of sovoral
aalectod prinoipelly because
to
of tlio difficxilty in so simpls a situation
simuate
'
-^
'ZiU-=
o
^^
rS
•r'
Q
o
o
»=•<;;*'=
©ffect
o:C
vt=!luQ
lu io expected that
en performancoo
The choice of th©
variablaa ors not incleponcient »
tlisGQ tv;o
vrln-3.03e
goal
msasurs asaunies they are
]iig}iiy depQiidento
It
assuKos in fact that parfox-mance is Ximited to the goel veiue
on auccoas and lii^dtod q fise-i increaiont helavi the goal value
on failure o
The size of this fixed increment ia set by the
cost per trial o
sul"ijsct
'-.rlTkB
SincQ
t]i«*
er-cpsrinsnt ccntlniiso lontil tha
a fixed nuabei' of tiaea, there are no "opportuni-
costs asaociated vvith a losso
ty""
Only the x'ixsd cost psr
trial is rQlaTer.t to this casQo
Tho fixed cost par triTil
sign of the
In
0.
G?^.pcriiffiant
^tis
included in the dQ-
to sim-uiato opportujiity costs, howavoPo
niore co.ijplos sifci-.ation
the sub^loct
v-'O-ald
he forced to
accept opportunity cost a with respect to. other- vcris^ble
oIqssos each tims he tJ-loeoted his attention to this variahl©
class
,.
One 7;ould oxpcct for
exfiffipls,
thst with graat dsiaands
for prohleiji solving capacity, gosis on individual \'erlabla
The
classes aight tend to ho lowered to redues tho dsmando
cost psr trial pcrraits explicit variation of this effect
c.
The cyltorion chcGen for the length of tho e^sparilaent
was related to tho cost par trial considerations o
If
for OAauiplc, the expsrimant vjere defined to last a fixed munher
of
trials, tho total trial cost would be fisad end tho offset
of this parameter of the experiment would
ello-iving tha
ha'FtJ
been lost,,
Qsperiiasnt to isst for a flscod number of
Ey
"v-.'ins"'
total trials bacome a variable and the "pressure of other
¥ariabls classes on gcale boecmss rsalo
This choice 6\leo olim-
inated ths .opportunity coat v/hich othcrsvise
x'vculd
have been
.30»
perfon^^^nee data
InfoTolns tns 3Ul^Jaot that his
saquon.o v.-as based on a few trial
.vere arranged in a random
these trial e:.pariraants tlae
rune '.-here t-Ms was not donso In
seelcing baUavior in
subjects initially engaged in pattorn
tUat noted in a study of the
tHa win^lcse sequanca not unlike
after e mx^ov of trials did
hlmxv^r cboioa situation;"-^' only
hypotbesis the-t tbese patterns ex«
tiio subjocta reject their
conceptB in their goal
iBted and begin to use more General.
....^u the osquenco
•r~,-«o->-^vn- the 3uujt>t.«o
"^ub-iQCts that
t
modification proeasso ImOi'mins ^xie
elis^inatad tbis early
of perforsiance data was random largely
to tbe experimental
behe^iox wbicb seemed to be more relatea
processeso
situation tban to geiieral goal modification
benign situations
The deoision to study essentially
nost of v.o require tbese for
was based on tlio ass^^ption that
subjects' pro^
Xt vje.s felt therefore, that tbe
oui' survival o
more at bosie in tbese
cesaes for sosl nodifioation might be
Xt v^as also
iii^iaineat.
situations tbaa in ones vibere ruin is
ruin barrier on bebased on tbe belief tbat tbe effect of £
dspsrture from bo^
havior 1^7 OS most usefiaiy studied e« e,
an indepoMent process „
ba-^ior in e, benisri situation tban as
a useful oneo
The e2iparin-isntal situation seems to be
nmabor of dlKansions. It S9n»
It permits easy variation along e
easily. This study has
urates trial by trisl data quickly and
considered only a smeai sample of
tiio
potential situations vvhich
can bo created -sitbin tha gsneral frarsswork.
"^
},»•
/
Jo ?©vixvaTio
'Veil
Aaa?Lysis of iTedictiva Behavior
^ot.ChSic6 Situation^- uapublisbed
Institute of Tcobnolcgy, 19b<Jo
ifh.T).
ma
tboais, Carnegie
"Si-
To
dat.o tliirt.y
tureo Bubjocto
i).a"ro
participated
sxperiiuant. T..o o? the., .ubj.ot.
in variations of the basic
a total of tUlrt^y fifo
Have payticipatad ti7iCQ siaidng
Since eaoi. azperinis.^ genar^
of tba experiment.
roT^etltion.
ate.
al.o..t
the goal modification.
ona >mBd.ed observations of
yielded ootween three and
proooB., those e.:peTiment;s ha^a
The auh;1ect^s ha'?6 heen
ro^^ thousnnd such oDserratior...
diversity of hacvgrounda. Thir=^
ara^n from an Intora.tins
Sloan Feno..s in the
tean of the subjects are currently
They are, thorefcre, ex^
school of latotrial Managemant^
in their
^r.---oet?anJY viewed r.s sticceogful
-i«o
r>-"^-ir-Tvr-P
caiears at aga 55 to 40.
Thirteen of tha subjects ar^ curr^
t^o are KioDo candidates;
ontly ma.tar'3 degree canaidateB;
-^^-.^ r^^ t^'^ fHcr.'>t^ at the School cf Indust"
rial Manage^eBte
repr6seutati-.o
While this sample is hardly
of the popiaation at large,
businsas a^GOutive
it Eiay
ao^v ^Biorgins
represent the class of
and malcing on impact
m
the profession of •^aaiiagemontc
"h«t tha purpo^^ of this
It 8hmilfi he emphaBi^^ft
by
.ioh s.t a^ <^- (tri.l
.^.ariiaeBt is to £.norata a
mi^t he po..^=
protoa.lB) frc^ ..hich it
.lus
hoha.ior
t.i.3
moaifi^^
. theory ot goal
oonetruatio.
the
start
to
ihle
oh.o..ation of
ho ee.^ea by the
can
objective
Thio
cationo
for o'.on such a
Bv3.^ect in a uU^&Le experiment,
^
a .In^O-o
small set of data is riah
^
o:aoiign
to prO.iao .a. xr.„
:Ccr
a thooi'y of tho
A ceooud sv.bjocb will modify
behavioro
Eopefuily,
that theory scniaviiet and so fortho
fron
bafca-g-ior v;ill
be JLndieatiiro of
Cn3 ssoka e sot of
gener-al structurQ which
t!i-3
<3.et.a,
thex'afors,
sup^rAiciall^r aiffor-ent Ijohavior v;hica can
a saall set of undsriyin'g processou.
"bs
-Kjhich
exhibits
ozplainsd by
In glancing at the data
a oompietQly satioAactory sEicimt of div^
fie2ieratsd to date,
Qrsitv' is ©Tidorit = an nnovmt
which
thaory
q rat-lior kdisII sample ot snoh. cosples:
K?liioh esj-ergas
ia sought o
tlie
-^vill e2s:plaia
7:?aioii
suggssta that a thaory
a nignifioant samplo ot this datia must
contain oonsidsrablQ gonQralitj-q
Essic'.se
which
hibits
ths usoAiunass of the ts?iQi by triol data
hg dirjGussed in taa nost sectioaj the data ex-
T.'ill
sQTTxo
intsr'astiiig aggregate propsrtisac
0220
of thase
hQD to do vjith vjhat might ha Gell<5d oasio strategies in the
gool raodif ieatioa prosesso
A ssiail fraction of tha suh.jsots undortook aooncmic
analysis of tho exporimoatal sitiiationo
tioal criteriori
h^i-
l^ioy
oomputed
p.
statis'
which thsy oould econoraioally ©Taluats thsii'
0j:po5?i9ncQ at difrorsnt goal lo'yolSo
'rheir hoha^ior than con-
siatod of gathariiis the data indicated hy this caloulation^
Ovor ths coursQ of a hundred trials ox so thay sTJCcoeded in
diaoovering a goal vaiuo vmich
aet earnings
vjciLl.d
hcs
close to thatAvhsro c:;:psstQd
raaximi so d^ given full inforraation ahcut
the parformarioe dictributioric
thercjzisl^os
i7as
i^-oias
that thsj? hed found the
of these auhjscts satisfiod
"optirr,^Jia"
boforcs the ©nd of
'OC^
tliQ
e:sparinent avA oftoxod to ocntinuo at that goal level
for tho x-eaaindGr of thQ gam© Y;3.thout 'orial by triel 5.a?orsia~
tion on perfox-iaancSo
A lorgar
rrGCtlo2i of the sulsjeots used c sligholy
clifr^ront stra'ijesyo
Thay seemsci to apply
tlis
coneopt of ex-
pQctQci veluQ uO tha v;in-loas record at veylous Iq'S'qIs but
not apply aconoiiiiG analysis to this datQo
triol reletive to
tendocl
tbe
tli©
ievQl of tlioir goal x^alue
tiis
totolerete mora losses than idns at
co.'5t
If
cost
v/ss
pas?
"Iovj"
they
a goal value o
If
par trial vma rQlatively "espQusj/va'^ hcive^er, they
tondstl to choof^e cioal valiios
ozcQQciQd lc5aQo„
in the "right
QJhls
vj5ie5?e
the Q;:pactQd nusbar of wins
slmplQ rula tonciod to bias their bohaYior
fiiroctionp ioSoj tovjard the optiisuia, but they
"*
RjfstGpjaticslly under© stXEiatQd
tlie
oconcmic offGOts
aiici
rssult chose goal 'Values botwean ths fasdien and ths
valiio
ciifi
as a
optiLUiBi
on the per-formaiic© distrilJutioEo
Til©
^eaaining suojactr. uasd naitbor tha Qoricopt of
eGoaoirdc analysis
ffioaifieiQ
2205?
t^io
conGopt of sxpcjctsd
a'-aluSo
Ivacjy
thsir goal ireluo on virtv-olly overy trial dopendiag
upon thoir prior o.^perienog - ospeciaj.ly tlieir x^ocent prior
ospayigncQo
iBore
of
T}i3y
than loosing
tliQ
uiiJ.i!cs
tenasa to raise taoir goals vaon tvinnins
enci
Yica
psrfosi-ueiico data,
G
3.'and.cs3
v;alko
-v^ereao
thay followed « very erratic path not
Thoir prooass led tliem to tend to choso
goal \"araos In tha nQisli'Doysiood of
districutiojio
TliQ
Bacausa of tha randomnoss
ran<2o:-.a
t].is
rsiocliGn
of
tlie
parf oraance
appsarance ofthsir behavior , it
-ma^'j^u
shoiiia bG esphQsised, v;a3 <x\m not;
process,
to
'
as vaXl ba discussea in t.he noxt sacticn, but
tiiQ fact.
elimiiic?.GQ a
of ov'.ojoots
significant
3.3
V;as
quite "«atisf:lea"
tliC5
tiio riLi.o
setisfiod by dofinition for
v;aa
by
his performanoe in ths
is^itli
-vjlrlch
aatisfGCtioa was cisfiaedo
eSiporiKiont each aubjoot was aska^i to cshoose
the ainglQ goal value ha
\7oiild
uee if ho i^oro to reps at the
exparisiQat without tho po-yer to ehangs his
This is not surpri.'?lGg for
\-?hich
oash
hafi
used
tlioir c;vn
prooass
of tho espsririonto
goal modific«tioa
tiio
iov;c
'I'lioy
bad, in off cot. built
Qriterion on the porforaiancQ data
d.ef inerl
oncl
choss
definod Iiichsr levels aa too
liafi
high end iover lavels as too
Ss?.Qh
go(3ilo
values olose to t'losa they had fourid neor tho
prooasa
not)
intersa-alng to note tbet eaoli of tliosQ typos
contrcl of
ond of
t'liQ
c;^!©
cf tho noiss in tUa porforaanc©
amoun-'G
In e sens© each
QspQriE^sait 6
At
noaificat-icn routins aid
t,hat tlisir goaD,
It
©acli kacl
a ran^cm goal modificetion
'co
ancl liad
in the
a ^Bl^-'ISSMSS.' optinnmo
Ths fact that this optiEi'am in the vast ma^oritv of
cssoa
If
vi^a
not near ths uooncmio
tlao G\.'t)jsct
has no Ksans by
bRGlc fi'o.m b^liaTicr at the
"good''
lie
position
opti-Piui'i
ivliich
to racogniSG that tto feod-
oconcmie optiemm is in sono sens©
ob'^iotisly has no metina by v;hich
?7liiG3i
is baside tlia point
b_i£ Traluo systQia
to profer it to a
dofines as "good"o
It
\;'ould
appear
from these data that tha sconcmic optiHUin vdll look attrsctivo
only to poople u'ith the concepts of aconoaic analysis in their
goal raodification ijrocsGGo
'i*his
result hcs
acaia
intoresting
inplications vrluh rospaot. to attamptis to apply eeonoaic
aaalysia to industrial operationa.
Unless
'oiiQ
cianager's goal
modification pyocees inolucLoB tto appropriate conceptQ he
migh-fc
very
\c0ll clofiiia
soJ-utiojio
•**
sjorG
the ocoaomic optiisua. to bo a poor
carafui eseird nation of tho data should per-
mlt empliflcation of tliia points
V/ith
respsct
t-o
the three basic strategies, it is
interesting to speculate about generality
<,
Thoso subjacta
appliad tha coaaspt of espactecl value clearly based most
v;lio
of thai? oalculaticns on the assunaption of a stable porfornjanco
This was qulta reasonable in tha oxporisasntal
distributiouo
sitUQticxi since this fact -was given in the instructions, but
if
bliis
fact
assumption
r;ex'o
not given, it sooias doubtful that this
^voulcl lis°«©
hoen
inade so
confidantljo
It would seem
tharofcrs, that as ths assurance of stability is v«aakanad, the
procsssea of goal modification of thoso
ivho
used expected valuos
might tend to becoina siailcr to the procesaos used by subjoeta
who clearly did not benefit froiQ the infor?istion about atebility.
Thus cno might hypothasisa that trisl by trial modification
might bo tha most gonsral of the three processes describod
above o
This hypothssis can be tostod in variations of the
Qxperimonto
this result
If it turns out to be supported by tha evidence
•tvould
make the point about tho possible conflict
betv/sen subjectivo and economic optiiD.a ovon more interesting
and iiaportanto
A variety of other gsneraliKations on the data
seera
possible o
^'or Qxaxiiple
,
tha data and strategies suggest
-36'
v'^^'r^
,^-cii
v/ith
uncertsiaty la their
tea poxnt
of Interest frcm
og wi
--^refore
1 .
.>u3\fc.^.o.u be
could
^/
6nvisoa5iisnt aad
tboory of a;icc.a^5.u-y
of via., of tHo ganeral
bonavior suggest that,
xa^c
car iLanDsiQTUxl
1
-<--.ri^ -a c€"
sl'^rdies
RoGQiit empirical
„^
,^.
ecoacmic sisnificaace
„preeter
S^et^t^er
ho-^
a.
oe
laa,
VQriabilit-7 in bonaYior
B^odification
of goal
i§.^
,^
-tudy o
of
uhx. ..tuaj
of thl.
results
^'a^
Dias.
than
.nua a
.or t^is variation,
explanation
an
n.y sugseet
that a
to date suggosts
satherod
data
the
of
l,riet reviev,
thaor-y o.
.ay .e de.ivea fxo. a
results
iate.estins
or
•
,
_
r^..
gool moalfieatiion proaesses^
'37'
"""'
la orao. to
of individual
sot.
...
Bubaects^
a*
««
f^aa^eata. dl«oxonc.a
based on bahavlox
-heo.
These t>ieoxio3
dif. or
then be corapared Tor
can
protocols
plus
Btrucv.re
t-be basic
become
,
'.ill
will
n
.1MQ.
rao aim-llariaes
axi-oies.
TLe ai««.
goal modif lc«t;xon.
of <> theory of
p.ocaoa and
per=.3t-3 o. .he
ooBS,.ao«d
.e
poir'c can
u...>u..nea
.e ccr.iae.aa
..yond tMt point o.n
L'.o..no.3
behavior,
rnero arc a nu^oer
. = -^rf
brood o-.time of
«a
.,0 a«t.e-
o. ^e^...-o-
this
Di-ooacluie
rspreaanus
tlio
a«e.cK propcaod.
^
protoool of
».« behevior. end
or.a
sun.oo.
..is -b,eo.
.na...od oaxa.^Uy,,
baen
...
,. oBe «po.i.e..
u.ad a t. al
.e .aa o„o wno
-oeoauca
aa.X,.l«
.,, 0.0SO. f o.
«.s .e.a.io.
1. .a. faXt
and
...a.asy
b, „.,X .odincation
c.o.ca
..a .i.do. o. V.i»
I«.:betbaaaaie...ounda.3.and.
is act inportantoc
,
^..^^
«.i. 0.3, us. .,elaU«
inc..a.ns
...Jeot.,
S,.o= .U
p.ocoasea - .ar.3 l..a
daoioio.
^
..ei.
dcaorlbing
,0...
goaxs
seems clear thav.
'it seem
again, e.Co - x.
bottor,
lo^var,
higlier,
.a..er t.an
o. prior .oals
.odiricatioas
o.
.esul.
a.a ...
Civen inrc^.ion
constructed .alues.
...s.l.
o.
a so^^ence
previous
fanure (lose) ojf iiis
x>.a-uj.
.^ (vnV;
or
lv;xn;
sueoca.^.
about, tbe
aU..lon
oonsidar. . BU...or o.
goal. t*.a B.b.5aot,
^
of wna. be xl>.a.,
bc.ia
tbe
on
aBd
pxiox. eKparlanoe
m
-58«
inci'eiTioiit
by which he modifies his latest goal value to
establioh
a f^cal for tho naxt, triaio
The theory {ahovai in Appandix B) attempts to
ainiiilate
this process o
It consists of a series of questions
enswQVS
regarding pest experience and dopending on the
an inoramorit is ohoson by v;hich the tjoal 13 to
Yja
Kodifiedn
To disoorer tho theoretically pradieted goal on a giVGii trial,
ono starts with the goal \'elue on the previous trial end
knoy/ledge of the succoss and failure ospor-ience on ell prior
Ono then enters the net in ii^ppendix Bo
goal valuos»
v</ith
the
result on tha latest trial end proceeds down the appropriate
chain of quastions and ansv/srs mitil
Application of this
oradicted wodif loetioz?.o
ividioat.oH t-b©
iiiodifi cation
declaratiVQ sentoncs
a
to tho latoat goal
-t&Iv.q
•
yields the goal valuo
prodictod for tha noxtfe'laio
ThG thoory in Appendix Bo
mant of ao'vonty-tvyo trials »
sr.-snt
ohoasn hy
shcivs t]int the
th^a
vras
derived
froia
an expari =
It ccrrectiy predicts the incre~
subjcjot in sixty-on© trials,
llie
protocol
suhjact was oonfuGod on tho first four trials
and that ho explicitly raTiced his process on tho fifth trislo
iJisT
counting those trials means tho theory predicts 61 out of
68 trials
o
the theory
This ie not particularly?^ surprising. hov/GTer, since
vi&a
doYelopsd from the dsta^
It should bo pointed out, too, that this record of
prediction is with rospoct to the incremsnt cacaen and that tho
5ir.'!4.=HJ£Ll2.
past perforinanoe
v/as
the basis of analysis at each trial.
-39"
Cl&Grly
tiio
theory could ba aIiov;a^ to opsrat©
on its own experience but this seems to be an miraas enable
procQcliiro on
The first is illustrataa by
two comitao
subject's behavior on the first four trieis,
about
lad
rtC<.83
ond to
a confusion
later (Stop 5) recogniaad
xvas
modification rulOo
3:j:plicitly ch&BS^a tiiia m.le.
ii3
soin?.
On
Yet oa trial 5
clogrG© on all subaequent trials, bia prior estiiat vmicli he
peviorica
-^yjsis
not that
;vhic;h
Thus one
rulSc
to use vuiat
oa an inappropricts goal
by hin to
trial 5
hini
t3iQ
ho
nad on ths first four trials,
nG'j.lO. iiava
ar-gu-Tisnt
hec t\ndep a more appropriate
for txsing the subject 'a past behav-
ior for predicting his nsxt goal is thot thi,? is tho informa-
tioa ha used in his seal modificatioa ru-lea,
To ignore this
fact saesia to reqiAire tho theory to acooapliah soiaathing
'i.vhioh
it should not b« osipoGtoa to dOo
The seconol point vath r-Qspeot to tho eppropriats
basis fop
o.Ts-luatirxg tho thcaory's predicti-<rQ poY;er ia
relatsa/Gut not iaontical, to tho firct.
cess
ir>
one of goal
rr.odif ication,
closely
Tho siibjacfa pro-
not goal cyaaticno
It
seems reaaonable tharofos-e, to tost the theory vdth rospoct
to tho bohs/ulcr it attejapts to
oi^iplaiaj
ioe., tho incremental
ruocUfication rather than the lonfj run conoaquencos of that
beha'irioro
Tnesa questions on tosting raise quits naturally
the probleifi of euplricsl validctlono
source of clata for those toats?
What should bs the
Obviously it can*t ba tha
identical oispor-iutsntal reoultG froui which ths theory
v:as
derived
-40-
booause ths theory
This probloai is even moro porplsxing
process,
dascri^e only a part of the goal formation
aUegoa to
individual goals
i,Q,, the effect of ijsrf oraanco on
„
It
the possible affects
makes no pretonse of being aolo to describe
ivhich are logically related
of infoPEiation or ^sriabla classss
to tha class in question,
as a result even thougli it would
explain a stream of
be desirable for cxampla, to attempt to
does not seem
industrial budget and performance data this
that budgets are not
appropriat3. It ^vouid he hard to imagine
against
othor variables than past performance
8 f.motion of
th9 budget.
might sug»
The theory dovelopod here although it
problem, «ould have no
gast an approach for ths study of thia
variables o Thus..
vmj of Q3:.plicitly dealing with these other
shed little light
Q^en though deal rabl 9, such a tost could
on tha QiapiriCDl validity of this theory
to
SincQ the ezpsrimental situation was designed
that it night bo
control for OAtraneous influences, it seems
validation, Differont
the boat souros of data for eiaplrical
ponorate data and
parainetors and suboaats oould bo used to
protocols.
'.vould
If the theory could explain
seem to offer
this data this
e-BipiriCBl support for the thoory.
^
Test
of this form are eurrentiy plamiedo
situation
A test outside tho particular experimental
the'Uovel of
might b3 devised by using data published in
Despite the fact that trial 'o:/ trial
aspirotlon^^literature„
data ia not available,
suciunary
statistics on perforiaonce of
statistics in the
tha theory could be compared to similar
'41-
This test, while not as strong as a trial by
literature o
trial test
v.'ouicl
if succesarully passed offer soaaQ limited
etnpiriCQl indication cf gencralitye
SuTsmery
The basic objeotive of this study is to
that
^shoY^
relatively simple mechanisms operating on a rocord of past
perfor?:enoQ can yield paraiuQters of the decision process
v/hich have heen called goalso
An 02tpsriraental situation
hac boen devised to yeild beha-pior- under conditions whera
parformance and goals are defined on
g
single -variablo class
to avoid tho ccsplexity of hierarchiCGl effects on tho a^al
fomation process
in
the.
o
a nuiabsr
baaie expsrimant and
been mada on their behavior o
subjects differ in a
fe-,^
of subjects have
soa-a
participated
general observations have
In particular it sesas that tho
basic oonconts \vhich they ue& in
interpreting tho feedback they receive o
Thene diffaroncesJ in
concept account for basic diffarences in the vmy they
struct a value rscalQ on th« aluornstiva goal
to them.
An
a:^;treKialy
vali!.es
con--
available
tentative theory of the process of
goal raodificatioa has heen eonstructodo
this theory across subjects
an:l
ah extension of
situations is expected to
desonatrate closrly these conusptual difforoncas among the
stibjectso
Tosts of this theory are suggested in variations
thoso
of tha basic oxpsrinent with different subjects than
used in the ezperinsnts to generate behavior for theory oondata
structioru Further tests of the theory against published
on level of aflpiration ozperiraonts sre albo sue.eestedo
=42^
variations in the
An UB-dersteaclins of the rorm aud
proaeases in sspocted to yield insight
goal moaii'lcation
into a nuiaber of manesQmQiit problems „
For example ^ an
thosa changea
understanding or the problems of Implemeatins
suggested by nomatiTs
In rfl.8U0g9rial decision prooQSses
modificatioHo
may result from a theory of goal
oconomc thoory
managerial decision may.ing
Data on the uaoconoaic variation in
thoory of the phsnomanon
may also be explained. Similarly a
literature under
variously reported in the psychological
else result, xerhaps
the narca'^leval of aspiration" may
however, u-ill be
mora important than any of these resulte,
modification will
the fact that a thoory of elrnple goal
ths basic problem
open the v/ay for a broader attack on
allocation in individuals
of underatandins intolligsnca
end organisetionso
APPSKDXX A
Instruct. 5.02XS
Tha experiraant in which you era about to partici^
pato is a part of a reaoarch project designed to invostigats
certain fundaiacatal prooesses ox* huaan docision makingo
During tho courr>9 of this expcria.ant you hoTS the opport'-juity to uake a numbsr of docisionso Thase dooisions >vili, ty
a pi-ocosa dsscri'&ao. belovi;, detarslne a iceesura of your perThis msasurs vsij.l be oppressed
forraance in the exparisientc
can think of those cs your earncsnts
you
dollars
ana
in
srA
ings in the osperiiaant although ixo payoff will be n-ado. You
shoulci ettozapt to vinke ;^'our deciaions in such a way as to
males your earnings ati largo as possible
On the fox-Es proYidsd you can seo that the azperiment consists of a n-ojabor of trials end a decision by you on
each trial c Tov>r decision v.'iil co-nsist of choosing a r.v.iaber
to writs opposite each trial nuciber. The nuDibers you choose
can be thought of as dollara end cents can bs positiva or
negative 3 and OD.n be of any sise you chooae„ Thore is absolutely no iirilt on the nuraber you chcoae on oach -trial
QXCQpt that it be in the dollar and c«nt formate.
.
ji.ftar yoti have chosen a nuBibar for a trial I -.'vill
corapare that .number with the nr?ixb&r corresponding to that
trial en a long list (5000) nu-ibera vihioh 1 hava prepared.,
Koto that tha nuiriber on my list changes at each trial v^'hsthsr
yours does or not. If, \vhen 1 coarpare your number ^vith mine
on any triel, 1 find ray nuiubar 1b highar than yours 1 vrill
say you win^ In this 6'9'sn'u yo'i will circle your number and
note bssida tho curaulati">re nu;K;53r of wins up to that trial,,
Tou can think of ji'oursalf as '\vinning tho money iraplied by
these cirolsd nui&bers.j
If on the other hand, the miinbar on ay list corresponding to tha triesl is smaller than the number yo\A have
written on your list, I vyill say
you Icae
ana you can proceed
.- ~.
to the nosit trials
You
Vv'ili contijrao to play >intil you have vjon 50
nuiaber of trials tJiis will taks ivill vary depending on ho'.7 frequently you vvlio Trie iDiniiaum number of trials
of course, is 50 but thers is no ruji-e as to the mesirauja mribsr,
Tou Slay take as many trials to van 50 tiiaas as you like or
find necensary.
Do not feel constrainsd one r;ay or tha. cthor
by the fact thfit tha prepared forta has 100 trials on it. You
may use more or loss trials if you likSo
tim-aSc
"^^'he
In ordttr to livait thfi number of trials you mey find
it desirable to play, ho'.ve-ser, a fcse is iffiposedwhich you must
pey per trial v/nethar you v.dn or losa« iJinca the fee will vary
from ftxporiinant to exporimant you 'ivill b^^ told the size of the
f OB per tjilal bafore you bogin to play.-
For Q7,auiple, suppose you pleyed as fol3.ov;s and
tho trial fae xvero i> oiO par trial.,
Trial_ffQ;i
1
2
3
iJac_isioi\
15H?£li'2°B^_£E>,^^E2B£2,
o75
o60
o50
«50
4
Lose
Lo2G
Loss
Win
Your earnings through trial 4 would bo;
Svm of circled \'alues
o40 ~ .Four trials at $OolO per trial
.,50 =
oiO
•-
Earnings through trial 4
Are there any questiona about procoaurs?
on my lint
IIoi^; juat a v^ord eboat the nuiabers
These nujnbers v/are seloctad carefully but then arrangad in
a r8-i)4c3 sQCAxenoa such that e.ny numher ean aoIIow any nunher
as ono '"goss dovvZi the llsto Tou will ba given no information
about the set of nujnbers from which this list ;vas solectod^
Since this esporlniQnt is deaignsd to reveal cortain
aspects of your dscisicn process, it would ho helpful if you
can desoribQ tho process by v^hioh you select the nurabars you
write on your list na you go alongo If you fcrgat to do this,
you may be reminded by tho sxperiiksntorc
Since most subjects vdll; like yourself coma from
tho school, you srs reuiestod not to di/jcuss your
QxperioncQ hare outsido this roos-a because prior knov/iedge
would, no doubt infliiencQ future subjeot.3 and nullify their
velua to this studyo
j
v/ithirA
J
APPMDIa b
-"-ppoiKJix Bo
1-aga 1
<,
Tha follo'!7ing dlecrimlnQtion net repreaenta a
tentative thecj'y of the gyal modification pyocssSo
It V7a3
derived from the behavior and protocol of a siriglo aubjocto
To disGo%'-ar the predicted modification in goal
value
3
epply this net to
a
record of prior performance o
discover the predicted goai value on a given trial apply
the predicted modlfiQaticn to the precoeding goal value
Ths nuiuber pracaoding each question and answer
indicates tha ausbQi? of levols that quootion. or ans-wer is
from tho too of tb3
net..
To
'^
o
lagQ W
^-Doendix B<
win at latQati goal value?
1 Yea
2 Prior trials this lei?9l?
3 Tos
4 Prior trials at higlior levols?
5 TeB
6 irior vlna at higher lovels?
7 ¥06
top?
8 l5 this level more than ens -rrom
.
9 To3
10 Go UP
9
on.B
step.
Eo
10
lost more than
higher levels?
lia%'3
-won at
11 Tea
12 Have
ro?i'
last 4 times in
this lavai?
\7on
13 Tea
i"^
££ 2£
15.2.
l£:i^''
13 Ko
11 Ko
12 Go
7
lip
one atepo
Ko
8 IlavQ played more than one lorel higher?
9 Tee
10 UavG loot at top more than 4
times?
11 Yes
1*'^
22 HS £B® SH1°
page
3<
Ap -ondix Bo
II No
12 Go to \02, i22Si.°
9 Ho
10 Is next level ons or mors
steps higher?
11 Tqs
12 Go to ne5_ JrlL^^Si^lSlS.
"XeWl',
11 No
12 No Chang a la S£q1.
5
HO
6 BQva
7
won bofora at this level?
^
Tos
8 la this trial oa an ©?en dollar?
9
7
No
Yes
HMSH."
J-0
2E H£
3-0
S£ H£ 2»1 Sl22'
!^E£
.
previous
S Is thlG trial change from
trial?
9 Yes
9
Ho
dollar?
10 Is this trial on an even
11 Tea
12 £0 ?^
!^H£
£5-^.'
11 No
IS Go U£ ona atoj^o
Page 4o
Appendix Bo
3 No
levels?
4 Prior trials at higher
5 Tea
levels?
6 Prior vjins at higher
-
7
Yes
7
No
froa top?
8 la this levol less than one
9 Yes
10 Go to topo
9 Ho
10 Have won bsfors at this lavsl?
11 Yee
12 Go up half
cit.££o
11 No
IE No ohajiga
in^ £SSi.-
5 Ko
S
1
Go uo one stopc
No
E .Vrior txlals tnie level?
3 Yes
loYsl?
4 Eavo ^on before at this
5 Yea
levels?
6 Prior t:?ielB at higlior
7
Yas
level?
8 This trie! decrease frosi last
9 Tqs
Page 5o
Appsnclis Be
10 Was previous trial at top?
11 Tea
12 Go
do^
on© £te£o
11 Ho
No
9
10 Have ^?on on edthor of last
two trials?
11 Tos
12
lio
cliaQgkO
in £°2i'
11 Ko
12 Go
7
dOY.-n
one ISZSi."
Ho
8 Two or IQBD trials at this level?
9
Yoe
10 Go doua ^18 ^^22."
9
No
10
5
llq c>iaBge
in goal
o
i^io
lantji^^al a w3^=
5 Go to next 10^^22 iSSSl sSSro
3 Mo
4 Is this trisi an oven stop?
5 Yes
6
Havo played etep bQlo%7?
'/
Tos
?
Ko
8 Go
fiovm
(TTia
stOBo
iagQ
Append is Bo
6,
5 Ko
6
von
Hrvq played tilgbar levels and not
7 Tas
8 Go do^n
7
M^f
ste£o
Ko
8
lio
chs^a in £calo
^
Bibliosxaphy
lo
Moti'ya=
Aao.areoM, HoH. an<X Bx-aridt, Ho Fo, "A gt'Udy of
«*i=C.
2.
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K. Ho,
Bo^^i^an,
1935 o
4c
EmwQr.
5o
Cnat)S0Si,
'To
Vol 54,
D<,
So. Goouno-v,
end
VJo
19i>9;
Jo
J.
?ollriiian,
and Aus'bln, Go Ad. 'A
Jo,
"A Social DQtQxmX'mnt o?
ppo 325"SSSo
^i'o Sr-oo3?v of C.oaa-u,:^-3:e D^Hsna: A
On "?,. jlo
G??itlGel'ApT3y:7^isal, PrsuSia© Kali, i'oFbiicoming, i9o^o
ni n-^'icpop
fi
t,it-J.%,«.-L-*-
FlTKi/prexitlc© Hall,
Bo
Tismbo, To,
^^Bs:?
?^£SSSS£BS;
'^oX
forlilaoovdiZLS
IS^^c
/bgeral BFna::nir3ahas i^oblems^ PHIS^£i£E:£S£
IS 1951, ppo l-^^o
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lastittitQ of "icaclxiiolosy, 1959.
FGOtora
J^^Siii.
iilo
<
Le^ei of /.Bpxration", joHSSl-
§22iSi ES.;i2li2i£^»
^*^^ ^"^ ^
194:S,
#rr^
ppo J.o^-tsOOo
Jo Do. '^Inclivriaual Di'i??or©nco8 in Q^/ffteln Aapae-os
of Level or As-oire.tion=%, .^aicrU?aa douxD^ _^ P£?X5i}2l2SI^
n^-\nli,
Yolo
12
,/^f:e0o;;iJ2s
47.,
I9Sr?j
'015 o
110-1860
"\ "Soms PsyehologicaX J.^Qtsnainants of
19S5j ppc 285~E9i3<
i--ev.3l
oa
c
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5E'^5~ta0k on the Level of Aspirotion In anotner,
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pp 159-17X0
tTThe IndTluenco of
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14
Properties
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of
h&^^r^' Aspiration and Random Gues3ing% Journal
ps^holo^',.^, X^olo 'i, 1937, pp, 4S-&2,
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of
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16 o
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ppo
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18.
•
19c
Variables
"The Relation of Cartain irarsonality
tTTS'^^ of Aspiration/* i^^rn^ Sl £^S^^21S^» """^ ^'
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Goiild.
R„,
,
EO.
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Porcsonaiity
and
Aspiration
31-iDo
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of feoOTOJjiantea i:£X2^oloiit, Vol S7, 1940,
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neatbsra, L. B., "Factors rroducins
?^f f^^J^J, J^Sv^'^Yol
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r
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•
cp:?iM^^^iirir^il2i2S^
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^
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^inia EaSakoral Saienoea%
25b-E8ii
=
Volo XLIX, Juna 19b9, ppo
Sliaon
^-
/o.
''
Date Due
AUQ27
'83
0CT2I79J9
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