Department of Agriculture, Fisheries
and Food
International Policy Developments
Tom Moran
Secretary General
21st January 2009
Main Issues
• Meat Markets 2008/09
– Beef, sheepmeat, pigmeat and poultry
• CAP Health Check
• WTO / Regional Bilateral Agreements
• Financial perspective post 2013
• Climate Change
Meat Markets 2008
• Beef – strong price increase, output down by almost 7%
• Sheepmeat – Drop of more than 12% in supplies, strong
competition from UK due to weakening Sterling, prices
4% higher
• Pigmeat – prices 9% higher as EU supplies started to
decline, product recall major impact on trade
• Poultry – some lift in prices although market remained
very competitive
Meat Markets Outlook 2009
• Beef – modest lift in supplies, consumer demand, sterling
and level of EU imports to drive prices
• Sheepmeat – Further fall in supplies, lower UK, French &
NZ supplies to help market environment
• Pigmeat – Lower output, product recall & demand for
Irish pigmeat on the Continent & International markets to
dictate prices
• Poultry – potential for gains as consumers reduce
spend, although competitive pressure to remain
CAP Health Check – Main Highlights
for Ireland
• Increase of 5% in milk quotas over 5 years
• Additional upfront 2% increase for Ireland in
butterfat adjustment
• Retention of existing intervention and APS
mechanisms for dairy
• Access to unspent SPS and national reserve
funds
• Increase of 5% in modulation to fund “new
challenges”
Other main highlights
• Timetable fixed for further decoupling
• Option available for MS to change SPS payment
models
• Changes to intervention for cereals and pigmeat
• Further simplification of SPS and crosscompliance
Implications for Ireland
• Access to €24 m in annual funds for targeted
measures under Art 68
• Yield of €120 m from additional compulsory
modulation to be ploughed back into Irish
farming
• Rural development plan to be revised
WTO
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No agreement at July 2008 Ministerial
December 2008 Ministerial deferred
Failure to agree on SSM caused the breakdown
Other outstanding issues in agriculture
Still outstanding issues on NAMA, services, GIs
WTO cont’d
• Prospects for agreement uncertain
• Revised texts on the table – little different to
previous versions
• New administration in US, upcoming elections in
India and changes at EU Commission level
• Determination of some to achieve agreement
WTO Irish view
• Irish view unchanged
• Any agreement must be balanced within and
between pillars
• Must deliver real benefits and not sacrifice
agriculture
• Specific problems with market access,
particularly impact of increased imports on beef
sector
Financial Perspectives post 2013
• EU Budget review due in 2009/2010 to determine
spending allocations post 2013
• Conclusions of Public Consultation on EU Budget
Review
– Limit on overall EU Budget; downward pressure on
CAP Budget;
– Focus on New Challenges (competitiveness,
environment, energy)
– Shift from Direct Payments to Rural Development;
– Emphasis on Value for Money
Future of CAP after 2013
• Budget review discussions entwined with future
of CAP
• Policy debate already started on shape of CAP
after 2013
• Some demands for dismantling of CAP!
• Demands from NMS for greater share of funds
Future of CAP after 2013 cont’d
• Calls for greater focus on pillar 2 and for more
specific performance indicators for RD measures
• Prospect of continued modulation
• Pressure to move from historic SPS model
• Diminution of supply and market management
measures
Irish views on future of CAP
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Need for strong and effective CAP
Food security issues
Continue fixed decoupled payments
Recognise role agriculture and rural
development can play in new priorities such as
energy needs, climate change, environmental
concerns
• Acknowledge importance of equivalent
standards for imports
Climate Change
• Kyoto, EU and National – targets at all levels
• Implications for Agriculture i.e. non-traded
sector:
– reduction of emissions of 20% by 2020 on
2005 levels
Share of Agriculture Sector in total
GHG emissions 2005
Share of agriculture sector in total GHG emissions (by EU-27 Member State) - 2005
Agriculture Subsector Emissions
Sheep
7%
Pigs
2%
Poultry
1%
Chemical
Fertiliser
13%
Other
Cattle
56%
Dairy
21%
Irish Sectoral trends (1990-2006), EEA (Oct
2008)
Responding to the Challenge
• Implementation of cost effective
abatement options,
• Make full use of flexibilities in EU
Package,
• Cohesive approach involving all
stakeholders,
• Participation in International Approach,
• Research.