Finance 824 Health Care Stock Presentation Fred Macaraeg g Chern Yurik Saw Xin Shen Increase as 300 basis bas s point po for o the sector s o We currently own ◦ Johnson & Johnson - 4.39% ◦ Medtronic – 2.29% ◦ Teva – 2.87% Recap Health Care Sector Johnson o so & Johnson o so – increase as 11 basis bas s points to maximum allowable holding. Medtronic – Sell everything Teva Pharmaceutical – Sell everything Pfizer – Buy 400 basis point Covidien – Buy 200 basis point Amgen – Buy 205 basis point Recommendation Business us ss Segments S g s ◦ Pharmaceutical, Consumer, Medical devices & Diagnostics 250 subsidiaries b idi i around d the h world ld One of the top 4 AAA rating ◦ Would be least affected by the recent US downgrade ◦ Best interest rate from market -> better profit p margin JNJ Overview Research s a and a d Development op ◦ Spends approximate 10% of sales in R&D Pharmaceutical segment taking off ◦ 7.5% increase in sales Diversification ◦ More M than th 50% international i t ti l sales l 7.3% increase in international sales 0.6% decrease in domestic sales JNJ Catalysts Regulatory gu a o y ◦ Drug approval form FDA Healthcare Budget ◦ Expected to be cut in 2012 Quality Control ◦E Eg: 130 million illi units it off Tylenol T l l and d other th drugs d recalled in 2010 JNJ Risks Stock Earnings per share JNJ 4.18 TEVA 3.49 ABT 3.28 MDT 2.86 GSK 2.06 WPI 1 13 1.13 PFE 1.07 MRK 0.92 JNJ Business Analysis Stock Debt to Equity JNJ 29.65 TEVA 31.35 WPI 31.84 MRK 32.89 PFE 50.14 MDT 61 59 61.59 ABT 84.5 GSK 169.91 JNJ Financial Analysis Stock ROA JNJ 13.5 MDT 10.58 TEVA 9.43 ABT 8.27 GSK 4.36 PFE 4 07 4.07 WPI 3.13 MRK 0.9 JNJ Financial Analysis Stock ROE JNJ 24.88 ABT 20.45 MDT 20.24 GSK 17.3 TEVA 16.18 PFE 93 9.3 WPI 5.85 MRK 1.51 JNJ Financial Analysis Stock ROI JNJ 17.45 MDT 12.72 TEVA 12.44 ABT 11.36 GSK 6.33 PFE 4 86 4.86 WPI 3.72 MRK 1.08 JNJ Financial Analysis Relative to Industry P/Trailing E High Low Median Current 1.4 .92 1.2 1.2 P/Forward E 1.3 .94 1.1 1.2 P/B 16 1.6 .77 12 1.2 13 1.3 P/S 1.3 .9 1.1 1.2 P/CF 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 JNJ Valuation Absolute Valuation High Low Median Current #Your Target g Multiple A. B. C. D. E. P/Forward P/F d E P/S 34 11 17 8 17.8 6.1 2.2 P/B 8.6 P/EBITD A P/CF F. *Your Target g E,, S, B, etc/Share G. Your Target g Price (F x G) H. 14 14 5 00 5.00 70 00 70.00 3.6 3.0 3.0 23.29 69.87 2.7 4.9 3.2 3.2 21.08 67.46 20.39 6.94 11.91 9.38 9.38 7.50 70.35 27 9.0 14.8 11.4 11.4 5.04 57.46 JNJ Valuation Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) Analyst: Chern Yuik Saw Date: 7/10/2011 Year 2011E 64,945 Revenue % Grow th 17,860 Operating Margin Interest and Other Interest % of Sales 69,159 Tax Rate % of Sales 3.0% 2 22,900 87,360 3.0% 24,461 89,981 3.0% 25,195 93,580 4.0% 26,203 (146) (151) (155) (160) (165) (170) (175) (180) (187) -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% 4,184 22.0% 14,835 3,250 4,426 22.0% 15,693 5.8% 3,439 4,443 22.0% 15,753 0.4% 3,466 4,576 22.0% 16,225 3.0% 3,415 4,714 22.0% 16,712 3.0% 3,438 4,855 22.0% 17,214 3.0% 3,541 5,001 22.0% 17,730 3.0% 3,647 5,343 22.0% 18,943 6.8% 3,756 5,503 22.0% 19,512 3.0% 3,869 28.0% 5,723 22.0% 20,292 4.0% 4,024 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% (213) (780) (741) (452) (466) (480) (494) (509) (524) (540) (749) 102,221 132,856 235,077 7.46% 13.5 3 5 16.9 10.3 12.5 2,789 67.57 84.29 24.7% 46,329 19,355 6.94 102,908 45.0% 20% JNJ DCF 22,233 84,816 (138) -1.1% 2,766 4.0% 14,672 4.3% $ $ 3.0% (130) 14,064 Shares Outstanding 21,586 82,346 28.0% % Grow th Cu e t P/E Current / Projected P/E Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA 3.0% 2021E 28.0% 4.0% NPV of Cash Flow s NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield 20,957 79,947 2020E 27.0% -0.3% Free Cash Flow 3.0% 2019E 27.0% 2,598 Capex % of sales 20,347 77,619 2018E 27.0% 3,052 Subtract Cap Ex 3.0% 2017E 27.0% 6.5% Plus/(minus) Changes WC 20,120 75,358 2016E 27.0% 13,931 % of Sales 5.8% 2015E 27.5% % Grow th Add Depreciation/Amort 73,163 2014E 27.5% 22.0% Net Income 19,019 2013E 10.0% 4.0% 27.5% 3,929 Taxes Debt Cash Cash/share Total Assets Debt/Assets Working Capital % of Grow th 2012E 6.5% Operating Income Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Dow nside) to DCF Terminal Discount Rate = Terminal FCF Grow th = -1.0% 2,927 4.0% 15,568 6.1% 43% 57% 100% -0.6% 3,090 4.1% 15,711 0.9% -0.6% 3,260 4.2% 16,055 2.2% -0.6% 3,438 4.3% 16,448 2.5% -0.6% 3,541 4.3% 16,942 3.0% -0.6% 3,647 4.3% 17,450 3.0% -0.6% 3,756 4.3% 18,655 6.9% -0.6% 3,869 4.3% 19,215 3.0% Terminal Value Free Cash Yield 12.7 15.8 9.7 11.8 12.0 0 15.0 9.1 11.1 -0.8% 4,024 4.3% 19,880 3.5% 344,593 5.77% Terminal e a P/E / 17.0 0 Terminal EV/EBITDA 12.3 Potential Upside – 24.7% Current Price - 61.12 (8/8/2011) ( ) Final Target Price - $70 Recommendation ◦ Max out quota by increasing JNJ’s weight by 11 basis point to 4.50% JNJ Recommendation Cu Current Weight: g 2.29% 9% Unrealized gain: $21,616 Recommendation: Liquidate q entire position in Medtronic Medtronic Summary The largest medical device company provide life-long solutions for people with chronic diseases. diseases Offers therapeutic and diagnostic devices for diabetes, neurological, spinal and neurosurgery. Performs its operations world wide. 7 business segments Ticker MDT Current Stock Price $31.07 52 Wk Range $43.33-$30.80 V l Volume 15 337 864 15,337,864 Market Cap. $35,341MM 1 Year Total R Return -9.73% Dividend Yield 2.43% Beta (Historical) 1.06 2011 Revenue $15,933 M 2011 Earning $3,069M Medtronic overview CARDIAC RHYTHM DISEASE MANAGEMENT CARDIOVASCULAR 4% 8% 13% 7% 31% PHYSIO-CONTROL 10% SPINAL 57% 26% 21% 20% NEUROMODULATION United State 3% DIABETES Europe Segmentation revenue Asia Pacific The rest of the world SURGICAL TECHNOLOGIES Medtronic Performance For the last three month: Worse than S&P 500 Worse than the other two stocks in the portfolio Relative Performance Emerging market Stronger presence in ◦ Help l to offset ff the h revenue decrease d in other h line l ◦ Neuromodulation, Diabetes, and Surgical T h l i Technologies Lots of acquisitions to open new market Often the first player to announce new products d t Aging population ◦ MDT highly involved in chronic disease treatment N New CEO ◦ Help the company to streamline its products Medtronic Catalysts Saturated market Revenue % in Neuromodulation, Diabetes, and Surgical Technologies too small ◦ Cardiac and spin (the major business lines) ◦ Cannot offset the revenue decrease in its major business lines Product problem: Infuse Voluntary recalls of its products FDA regulation Ob Obamacare: ◦ Paid Yale 2.5 million to review the data ◦ Trigger more attention to patient safety ◦ Battery failure for ICDs ◦ Uncertainty about the new approval process ◦ Reluctant to approve new products ◦ Restrictions to prevent overuse ◦ More price competition ◦ Indirectly related to the lower reimbursement rate of Medicare Medtronic Risks High Low Median Curren t Target Multipl es Target Metric Per Share Target Weight Price P/Forward E 39 7 39.7 90 9.0 20 9 20.9 10 8 10.8 13 3 13.3 3 14 3.14 41 76 41.76 25% P/S 11.1 2.2 5.6 2.5 3.0 14.72 44.16 25% P/B 11 2 11.2 23 2.3 62 6.2 23 2.3 35 3.5 11 04 11.04 38 64 38.64 25% P/EBITDA 33.06 6.99 16.27 7.23 12.50 4.92 61.5 12.5% P/CF 38 6 38.6 79 7.9 19 4 19.4 91 9.1 11 5 11.5 3 07 3.07 35 31 35.31 12 5% 12.5% Price Target $43.24 $43 24 Medtronic Valuation Terminal Discount Rate = Terminal FCF Grow th = Year 2012E 16,994 Revenue % Grow th 2013E 17,959 5.7% EBIT 4,367 EBIT % of Sales 25.7% Interest and Other Interest % of Sales Taxes Tax Rate Net Income 4,615 % of Sales Subtract Cap Ex Capex % of sales Free Cash Flow Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Dow nside) to DCF Debt D bt Cash Cash/share Total Assets Debt/Assets Working Capital % of Grow th 5,010 2.0% 5,110 1.0% 5,056 1.5% 5,131 2.0% 5,125 3.0% 5,279 3.0% 5,437 307 313 316 321 327 337 347 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 878 3 520 3,520 3 742 3,742 6.3% 1,000 19.0% 3 666 3,666 -2.0% 1,010 19.0% 3 693 3,693 0.7% 1,030 19.0% 3 767 3,767 2.0% 1,021 19.0% 3 719 3,719 -1.3% 1,036 19.0% 3 775 3,775 1,036 19.0% 3 762 3,762 23.5% 23,136 1.5% 19.0% 23.5% 22,463 1.5% 826 24.0% 21,808 298 19.0% 24.0% 21,381 1.5% 781 24.5% 21,065 2022E 286 19.0% 24.5% 20,856 2021E 269 1,067 19.0% 3 875 3,875 23.5% 1,099 19.0% 3 991 3,991 1.5% -0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 850 898 954 953 981 980 990 984 1,003 1,033 1,064 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% -228 -297 -348 -199 -153 -104 -53 -80 -109 -168 -174 -1.3% -1.7% -1.8% -1.0% -0.8% -0.5% -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% -0.8% -0.8% 637 673 716 744 818 834 906 919 1,003 1,033 1,064 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 3,321 3,471 3,668 3,672 3,700 3,795 3,740 3,764 3,688 3,761 3,874 4.5% 5.7% 0.1% 0.7% 2.6% -1.4% 0.6% -2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 53% 47% 100% Terminal Value Free Cash Yield 9.5 11.9 9 7.6 9.1 9.0 11.2 7.2 8.6 1,082 $ $ 3.0% 2020E 1.5% 10.1 12.5 5 8.1 9.6 Shares Outstanding 4,963 20,447 2019E 1.5% 22,195 19,601 41,796 9.88% Current P/E Projected ojected P/E / Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA 4.0% 2018E 255 % Grow th NPV of Cash Flow s NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield 4,906 19,852 2017E 25.0% 5.7% Plus/(minus) Changes WC 6.3% 2016E 25.7% 3 331 3,331 % of Sales 19,088 2015E 25.7% % Grow th Add Depreciation/Amort 2014E 10.5% 3.0% 31.07 38.64 24.4% 9 835 9,835 1,382 1.28 30,424 32.3% 25% Medtronic DCF 53,198 7.28% Terminal P/E 13.3 Terminal EV/EBITDA 9.5 DCF target price: $38.64 Multiples target price: $43.24 Final target price: $40.94 Current price (August 4th):$30.13 ):$30 13 Potential upside: 35.87% Recommendation: ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Sell Medtronic The high upside is due to the recent price dropping Cannot Ca o beat bea S&P S& 500 for o the e past pas month o Negative 1 year yield Pfizer Price Target Summary Research-based Global biopharmaceutical company Three major business segments: ◦ Biopharmaceutical ◦ Diversified ◦ Corporation/Other Ticker Current Stock Price $17.49 52 Wk Range $21.45-$15.66 V l Volume 86 443 600 86,443,600 Market Cap. $138,191MM 1 Year Total R Return 12.61% Dividend Yield Beta (Historical) Pfizer overview PFE 4.57% 0.87 2010 Revenue $67,809 M 2010 Earning $9,024M 15% 13% 1% 42% 18% 86% 25% Biopharmaceutical United States Diversified Coprorate/Others Europe/Canada Latin America/AFME Rest of the World Segmentation revenue 2010 Pfizer 12 12--month performance Pfizer three month performance Expansion in the emerging markets ◦ 2nd best market p position world wide ◦ Exclusivity for branded drugs Against the counterfeit generic drug Offset the disregard of patent protection Cost-cutting plan Strong new product pipeline ◦ More than 100 drug in the early-phase ◦ Potential huge revenue from two new drugs JAK-inhibitor-rheumatoid arthritis Alk-inhibitor-lung cancer The divestiture of the animal health and nutrition business units ◦ Reveal the undervalue of the segments ◦ Lots of companies are interested in (ex. Eli Lilly) The acquisition of Wyeth ◦ Decrease the revenue share of Lipitor ◦ Stronger position in biologic industry High dividend yield R&D tax credit may turn to be permanent Pfizer catalysts Patent protection expiration The loss of the exclusivity of Lipitor New drug cannot reach the market Flat growth rate More debt and diluted equity to acquire Wyeth FDA’s increasing risk-sensitivity Government influence ◦ O Over th the nextt four f years, the th products d t that th t generate t more than 1/3 of the revenue will loss patent protection ◦ The failure of Torcetrapib (drug to increase the HDL) ◦ More price negotiation ◦ Losing sales force Insurance’s unwillingness to cover follow-up drugs Pfizer risk Terminal Discount Rate = Terminal FCF Grow th = Year 2012E 67,440 Revenue % Grow th 2013E 62,819 -6.9% EBIT 18,490 EBIT % of Sales Interest and Other Interest % of Sales Tax Rate Debt Cash Cash/share Total Assets Debt/Assets 18,902 77,876 3.0% 19,469 80,212 82,618 3.0% 3.0% 20,053 20,655 (1,570) (1,630) (1,679) (1,730) (1,782) (1,835) (1,890) (1,947) (2,005) (2,065) -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% 2,298 12.0% 16 820 16,820 30,731 6,910 121,544 90,731 212,275 21.76% 8.0 12.0 7.1 9.8 2,569 12.0% 18 804 18,804 11.8% 7,174 1,894 12.0% 17 251 17,251 -8.3% 6,046 1,951 12.0% 17 768 17,768 3.0% 6,227 2,010 12.0% 18 301 18,301 3.0% 5,701 1,982 12.0% 18 205 18,205 -0.5% 5,872 2,041 12.0% 18 751 18,751 3.0% 5,293 2,103 12.0% 19 313 19,313 3.0% 5,451 2,166 2,231 12.0% 12.0% 19 893 19,893 20 489 20,489 3.0% 3.0% 4,813 4,957 11.0% 11.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 555 (288) (504) (519) (535) (551) (567) (584) (602) (620) 0.9% 1,445 2.3% 21,481 -30.1% Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Dow nside) to DCF 3.0% (1,686) % Grow th Shares Outstanding 18,351 75,607 25.0% 2.3% Current P/E Projected P/E Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA 3.0% 25.0% 16.2% NPV of Cash Flow s NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield 18,529 73,405 25.0% 1,551 Free Cash Flow 3.0% 2022E 25.0% 10,898 Capex % of sales 17,990 71,267 2021E 25.0% 11.0% % of Sales 3.0% 2020E 26.0% 7,418 Subtract Cap Ex 17,466 69,192 2019E 26.0% -5.2% Plus/(minus) Changes WC 3.0% 2018E 26.0% 17 751 17,751 % of Sales 19,743 67,176 2017E 30.3% % Grow th Add Depreciation/Amort 3.8% 2016E 27.9% 12.0% N t IIncome Net 65,220 2015E 27.4% 2,425 Taxes 17,548 2014E 11.0% 3.0% -0.4% 1,500 2.3% 22,974 7.0% 57% 43% 100% -0.8% 2,015 3.0% 19,981 -13.0% -0.8% 2,076 3.0% 20,581 3.0% -0.8% 2,851 4.0% 20,095 -2.4% -0.8% 2,936 4.0% 20,052 -0.2% -0.8% 3,780 5.0% 19,482 -2.8% -0.8% 3,894 5.0% 20,067 3.0% -0.8% -0.8% 4,813 4,957 6.0% 6.0% 19,427 20,010 -3.2% Terminal Value 3.0% 257,624 Free Cash Yield 8.4 12.6 7.5 10.4 7.5 11.3 6.8 9.5 Terminal P/E 12.6 Terminal EV/EBITDA 11.7 8,074 $ $ 17.49 26.29 50.3% 44,033 1,735 0.21 195,014 22.6% 7.77% Pfizer discounted cash flows Expansion in the emerging markets ◦ 2nd best market p position world wide ◦ Exclusivity for branded drugs Against the counterfeit generic drug Offset the disregard of patent protection Cost-cutting plan Strong new product pipeline ◦ More than 100 drug in the early-phase ◦ Potential huge revenue from two new drugs JAK-inhibitor-rheumatoid arthritis Alk-inhibitor-lung cancer The divestiture of the animal health and nutrition business units ◦ Reveal the undervalue of the segments ◦ Lots of companies are interested in (ex. Eli Lilly) The acquisition of Wyeth ◦ Decrease the revenue share of Lipitor ◦ Stronger position in biologic industry High dividend yield R&D tax credit may turn to be permanent Pfizer catalysts DCF C target a g price: p $26.29 $ 6 9 Multiples target price: $28.62 Final target g p price:27.46 Current price (August 4th):$17.49 Potential upside: 56.98% Recommendation: ◦ Buy Pfizer ◦ weight i ht 4% off the th SIM Pfizer Price Target Summary High Low Median Current Target Multiple s Target Metric Per Share Target Price Weight P/Forward E 28.9 5.9 12.3 7.9 12.6 2.31 29.11 25% P/S 9.20 1.70 3.70 2.00 3.00 8.40 25.2 25% P/B 17.0 1.30 2.70 1.60 2.20 11.95 26.29 25% P/EBITDA 38.11 4.86 10.20 4.86 5.5 6.78 37.29 12.5% P/CF 36.90 3.90 9.10 5.30 8.00 3.81 30.48 12.5% Targett Price T P i = $28 62 $28.62 Pfizer Valuation Teva a Pharmaceutical a a u a (TEVA) ( ) Current SIM Portfolio weight: 2.87% 52 Week: $ $36.05 – $ $57.08 Last Trade: $36.34 Recommendation: Liquidate Position and re-allocate proceeds Teva Pharmaceutical Highlights Teva Overview G Generic Drug ug maker a has as distribution d s bu o exposure to 60 countries worldwide Recently received FDA acceptance of new drug for chronic and perennial rhinitis Potential to capture market share of some majo drug major d g labels with ith patent expiration e pi ation Teva Catalysts FDA will most likely y not approve pp Laquiminod, Teva’s drug for multiple sclerosis. The patent on Copaxone will expire in one year. Copaxone is Teva’s only branded drug. g Increased rivalry within the generic drug manufacturing industry along with decreasing stock price means Teva may have to halt acquisitions. Teva Risks Teva DCF Analysis Amgen, g , Inc. (AMGN) ( G ) Current SIM Portfolio Weight: N/A 52 Week Range: g $ $49.88 – $ $61.53 Last Trade: $49.88 Recommendation: Initiate 205 basis point purchase of AMGN Amgen Highlights Amgen Overview Favorable a o ab foreign o g exchange a g fluctuation u ua o has driven and will continue to drive international sales Xgeva reported sales of $73 million, up from $42 million reported in Q1 2011 P li Xgeva’s Prolia, X ’ counterpart, t t received i d FDA approval in June 2010 and is expected to have similar sales results as Xgeva Amgen Catalysts Healthcare a a reform o could ou d cost os Amgen g $400 $ 00 to $500 million in sales US sales diminished due to price increases Forex fluctuation, while currently working in Amgen’s favor, could turn against them. Amgen Risks Amgen DCF Analysis Co d Covidien (CO (COV)) Current SIM Portfolio Weight: N/A 52 Week Range: g $ $35.12 - $ $57.65 Last Trade: $44.07 Recommendation: Initiate 205 basis point purchase of COV Covidien Highlights Covidien Overview Co Continued u d focus o us o on rebranding b a d g image ag since spinning off from Tyco in 2007 Increased sales in medical supplies continue to drive company revenue growth Q3 C Covidien idi announced d company restructuring by end of 2014 in order to boost cost structure structure. This move could save the company $175-$225 million/yr. Covidien Catalysts Weak p pharmaceutical lines are being g bolstered by strong medical supply sales Company restructuring, although designed to cut costs, costs could lead to reduced sales growth and potential loss of talent due to competitive p recruiting g and hiring initiatives of competitors 5% of revenue growth was due to Forex fluctuation which could move against fluctuation, Covidien at some point. Covidien Risks Covidien DCF Analysis http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a DO32ij91O8&NR=1 What Questions Do You Have?