Consumer Discretionary Stock Presentation Ziwei An | Jonathan Conley | Ryan Bayonnet Overview Sector Recap | Stock Overview Sector Recap SIM 8.42% Underweight 4.24% S&P 500 12.66% MATERIALS 3.17% UTILITIES 3.05% INDUSTRIALS 10.31% FINANCIALS 16.28% CONS STAPLES 9.76% TELECOM SERV 2.32% MATERIALS 2.58% CONS DISCRET 12.66% ENERGY 8.07% HEALTH CARE 14.79% INFO TECH 19.59% UTILITIES 0.00% INDUSTRIALS 8.05% FINANCIALS 19.32% CONS STAPLES 9.08% TELECOM CONS DISCRET 8.42% CASH & DIV REC & NA 4.42% ENERGY 7.26% HEALTH CARE 15.27% INFO TECH 22.70% Stock Overview Current Weight in SIM Fund Current Price Target Price Return Potential Recommendation Company Name Ticker Comcast Corporation CMCSA 188bps $58.42 $62.27 6.59% HOLD DirecTV DTV 232bps $87.43 $94.09 7.61% HOLD 199bps $62.16 $67.73 8.96% HOLD 64bps $27.28 $29.25 7.22% HOLD Michael Kors Holdings Limited KORS Service Corp International SCI Fossil, Inc. FOSL 0bps $81.53 $78.90 -7.0% HOLD Harley Davidson HOG 0bps $61.77 $73.67 19.3% BUY Ralph & Lauren Corporation RL 0bps $136.95 $140.83 2.84% HOLD DIRECTV(DTV) HOLD | Target Price: $94.09 Current Price: $87.43 % Upside: 7.61% Key Drivers • AT&T Acquisition of DirecTV • Strong Customer Satisfaction • Expansion into International Markets Risks • DirecTV- AT&T Merger could fail to materialize due to the FCC blocking the merger • Conflicts between DirecTV and AT&T culture leading to key talent leaving the company • Reputational risk and fees resulting from current legal proceedings • Failure to keep up with technology • Foreign exchange uncertainty with the dollar appreciating against most currencies • Threat of losing subscribers to online video providers such as Hulu or Netflix Financial Data – Five Year Trailing 52-Week Range Market Cap Shares Outstanding 1-Yr Total Return Dividend Yield Beta EPS(TTM) P/E ROA Operating Margin Profit Margin $75.50-$89.46 $43.96B 502.8M 14.47% N/A 1.25 5.40 16.19 14.46% 16.47% 8.29% Multiples Analysis Multiples DIRECTV CMCSA DISH CABLEVISION AT&T 7.46 8.39 13.46 7.67 8.35 P/CF 13.12 19.95 29.97 10.36 14.1 P/S 1.32 2.17 2.42 0.82 1.35 P/E 16.19 19.79 44.19 19.12 14.3 EV/EBITDA Multiples Current Target Multiple Target / Current Expected EPS Target Price P/E 16.19 17.3 1.069 6.23 93.46 P/B N/A N/A N/A N/A P/S 1.32 1.65 1.25 109.29 7.5 8 1.067 98.68 P/EBITDA Average of Target Prices Upside Potential over Current Stock Price ($58.42) 98.68 +12.87% DCF- DTV Sensitivity Analysis Harley Davidson (HOG) BUY | Target Price: $73.67 Current Price: $61.77 % Upside: 19.3% DCF- HOG Michael Kors Holdings Limited(KORS) HOLD | Target Price: $67.73 Current Price: $62.16 % Upside: 8.96% Key Driver • Strong Brand Recognition • Expansion in Product Categories • Expansion into International Market Risks • Lag of Responding to Changing Fashion in a Timely Manner • Risks Associated With Operating in Global Markets • Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Industry Is Heavily Influenced by Macroeconomic Cycle Financial Data 52-Week Range Market Cap Shares Outstanding 1-Yr Total Return Dividend Yield Beta EPS(TTM) P/E ROE Gross Margin Profit Margin $63.21-$98.96 12.7B 200.8M -29.20% N.A 1.33 4.17 15.19 45.53% 60.86% 23.10% Trailing 12M KORS (White) Vs. SPX (Green) DCF Valuation (In thousands) Year Terminal Discount Rate = 11.00% Terminal FCF Growth =5.00% 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Revenue % Growth 4,538,610 5,606,122 23.52% 6,308,050 12.52% 6,938,855 10.00% 7,632,741 10.00% 8,396,015 10.00% 9,235,617 10.00% 10,159,178 10.00% 10,667,137 5.00% 11,200,494 5.00% 11,760,519 5.00% Operating Income Operating Margin 1,296,996 28.58% 1,436,470 25.62% 1,241,186 19.68% 1,387,771 20.00% 1,526,548 20.00% 1,679,203 20.00% 1,847,123 20.00% 2,438,203 24.00% 2,560,113 24.00% 2,688,119 24.00% 2,822,524 24.00% Interest Interest % of Sales (1,362) -0.03% (1,682) -0.03% (1,892) -0.03% (2,082) -0.03% (2,290) -0.03% (2,519) -0.03% (2,771) -0.03% (3,048) -0.03% (3,200) -0.03% (3,360) -0.03% (3,528) -0.03% Taxes Tax Rate 453,367 35.00% 502,071 35.00% 433,648 35.00% 484,991 35.00% 533,490 35.00% 586,839 35.00% 645,523 35.00% 852,304 35.00% 843,781 33.00% 885,970 33.00% 930,269 33.00% Net Income % Growth 841,968 932,418 10.74% 805,346 -13.63% 900,698 11.84% 990,768 10.00% 1,089,845 10.00% 1,198,829 10.00% 1,582,851 32.03% 1,713,132 8.23% 1,798,788 5.00% 1,888,728 5.00% 108,473 2.39% (231,965) -5.11% 226,931 5.00% 131,744 2.35% (197,810) -3.53% 280,306 5.00% 145,085 2.30% (130,067) -2.06% 315,403 5.00% 159,594 2.30% (143,074) -2.06% 346,943 5.00% 175,553 2.30% (157,381) -2.06% 381,637 5.00% 193,108 2.30% (173,120) -2.06% 209,900 2.50% 212,419 2.30% (190,431) -2.06% 230,890 2.50% 233,661 2.30% (209,475) -2.06% 253,979 2.50% 245,344 2.30% (219,948) -2.06% 266,678 2.50% 257,611 2.30% (230,946) -2.06% 257,611 2.30% 270,492 2.30% (242,493) -2.06% 270,492 2.30% 491,545 586,045 19.23% 504,961 -13.84% 570,275 12.93% 627,303 10.00% 899,933 43.46% 989,926 10.00% 1,353,058 36.68% 1,471,849 8.78% 1,567,842 6.52% 1,646,234 5.00% Add Depreciation/Amort % of Sales Plus/(minus) Changes WC % of Sales Subtract Cap Ex Capex % of sales Free Cash Flow % Growth DCF Valuation 5,314,405 34.37% NPV of terminal value 10,146,119 65.63% Projected Equity Value 15,460,524 100.00% Free Cash Flow Yield 3.68134% Current P/E 15.86 14.32 16.58 Projected P/E 18.36 16.58 19.20 8.82 7.91 8.94 10.32 9.25 10.46 Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA Shares Outstanding Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Downside) to DCF 210,638 $63.39 $73.40 Terminal Value 28,809,103 Free Cash Yield 5.71% Terminal P/E Terminal EV/EBITDA 15.25 9.01 Terminal Discounted Rate 73.40 10.25% 10.50% 10.75% 11.00% 11.25% 11.50% 11.75% Terminal Growth Rate NPV of Cash Flows Sensitivity Analysis from DCF Valuation 4.25% 77.05 73.58 70.38 67.42 64.68 62.13 59.75 4.50% 79.52 75.81 72.40 69.26 66.35 63.66 61.16 4.75% 82.21 78.23 74.59 71.25 68.16 65.31 62.67 5.00% 85.17 80.88 76.97 73.40 70.11 67.09 64.29 5.25% 88.41 83.78 79.57 75.74 72.23 69.00 66.03 5.50% 92.00 86.97 82.42 78.29 74.53 71.08 67.92 5.75% 95.99 90.49 85.55 81.09 77.04 73.34 69.96 15.79% DCF Target Price: $73.40 Multiple Valuation P/E P/B P/S EV/EBITDA P/CF 15.19 5.92 3.07 8.59 15.07 14.51 3.82 2.68 11.32 17.54 31.06 16.63 23.95 4.64 4.58 6.44 3.92 2.56 3.14 14.48 10.46 12.98 28.8 11.47 16.64 RALPH LAUREN CORP PVH CORP 16.42 14.15 2.89 2.03 1.57 1.08 8.14 15.41 11.5 11.29 Range of Multiples Minimum Average Median Maximum P/E 14.15 18.84 16.42 31.06 P/B 2.03 4.33 4.58 6.44 P/S 1.08 2.57 2.68 3.92 EV/EBITDA 8.14 11.63 11.32 15.41 P/CF 11.29 16.04 15.07 28.80 Book Value Per EPS(TTM) Share(MRQ) $4.17 $10.70 Sales Per Share(TTM) $20.68 MICHAEL KORS HOLDINGS LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOU PRADA S.P.A. COACH INC BURBERRY GROUP PLC KORS Data Price Range Minimum Average Median Maximum P/E $59.01 $78.58 $68.47 $129.52 P/B $21.72 $46.35 $49.01 $68.91 P/S $22.33 $53.24 $55.42 $81.07 EBITDA Per Cash Flow Per Share(TTM) Share(TTM) 6.74 $4.21 EV/EBITDA $54.86 $78.36 $76.30 $103.86 P/CF $47.53 $67.55 $63.44 $121.25 Football Chart P/CF EV/EBITDA P/S P/B P/E $0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 $140.00 Relative Valuation Price Range: $59.01-$68.91 Ralph & Lauren(RL) Year Revenue % Growth Operating Income Operating Margin Interest Interest % of Sales Taxes Tax Rate Net Income % Growth Add Depreciation/Amort % of Sales Plus/(minus) Changes WC % of Sales Subtract Cap Ex Capex % of sales Free Cash Flow % Growth 2015E 7,753 1,056 13.62% (2) -0.03% 326 31.00% 725 264 3.40% (64) -0.83% 349 4.50% 576 2016E 8,002 3.22% 1,018 12.72% (2) -0.03% 314 31.00% 699 -3.63% 272 3.40% (47) -0.59% 360 4.50% 564 -2.12% NPV of Cash Flows NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield 4,928 7,888 12,816 4.57079% 38.45% 61.55% 100.00% Current P/E Projected P/E Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA 17.37 17.67 9.28 9.45 18.03 18.33 9.50 9.66 Shares Outstanding Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Downside) to DCF $ $ 91.0 136.95 140.83 2.84% 2017E 8,276 3.42% 1,135 13.72% (2) -0.03% 345 31.00% 768 9.86% 281 3.40% (52) -0.63% 372 4.50% 625 10.88% 2018E 8,607 4.00% 1,192 13.85% (3) -0.03% 369 31.00% 821 6.87% 293 3.40% (54) -0.63% 387 4.50% 672 7.53% 2019E 8,951 4.00% 1,240 13.85% (3) -0.03% 383 31.00% 854 4.00% 269 3.00% (56) -0.63% 269 3.00% 797 18.65% 2020E 9,354 4.50% 1,296 13.85% (3) -0.03% 388 30.00% 905 6.01% 281 3.00% (59) -0.63% 281 3.00% 846 6.12% 16.41 16.69 8.65 8.80 Terminal Discount Rate = Terminal FCF Growth = 9.75% 4.25% 2021E 9,775 4.50% 1,357 13.88% (3) -0.03% 406 30.00% 948 4.73% 293 3.00% (61) -0.63% 293 3.00% 886 4.74% 2022E 10,215 4.50% 1,418 13.88% (3) -0.03% 424 30.00% 990 4.50% 306 3.00% (64) -0.63% 306 3.00% 926 4.50% 2023E 10,674 4.50% 1,482 13.88% (3) -0.03% 444 30.00% 1,035 4.50% 267 2.50% (64) -0.60% 267 2.50% 971 4.80% 2024E 11,128 4.25% 1,545 13.88% (3) -0.03% 462 30.00% 1,079 4.25% 278 2.50% (67) -0.60% 278 2.50% 1,012 4.25% 2025E 11,601 4.25% 1,610 13.88% (3) -0.03% 482 30.00% 1,125 4.25% 290 2.50% (70) -0.60% 290 2.50% 1,055 4.25% Terminal Value 19,999 Free Cash Yield 5.28% Terminal P/E 17.78 Terminal EV/EBITDA 10.34 SERVICE CORP INTERNATIONAL(SCI) HOLD | Target Price: $29.25 Current Price: $27.28 % Upside: 7.2% Financial Data 52-Week Range Market Cap $18.52-$27.35 5,581.7M Shares Outstanding 204.6M 1-Yr Total Return Dividend Yield Beta EPS(TTM) P/E ROE Gross Margin Profit Margin Bloomberg 12M Target Price 46.98% 1.47% 0.8 0.27 101.13 12.2% 22.60% 2.0% $29.25 Trailing 12M Stock Price of SCI(White) Vs. SPX (Green) COMCAST CORPORATION(CMCSA) HOLD| Target Price: $62.27 Current Price: $58.23 % Upside: 6.59% Key Drivers • Time Warner Cable: Possible Merger • Comcast Cable • NBCUniversal Risks • Comcast Cable: pressure from satellite & internet providers • Regulation: Operations and TWC merger • Net Neutrality Violations • Increasing Content Cost Financial Data – Five Year Trailing 52-Week Range Market Cap Shares Outstanding 1-Yr Total Return Dividend Yield Beta EPS(TTM) P/E ROE Gross Margin Profit Margin $47.74-$60.70 $151.07B 2.54B 17.22% 1.7% 0.94 3.2 18.27 16.12% 12.19% 23.10% CMCSA vs. Consumer Discretionary and S&P500 Multiples Analysis Multiples CMCSA DIRECTV DISH CABLEVISION AT&T EV/EBITDA 8.39 7.46 13.46 7.67 8.35 P/CF 19.95 13.12 29.97 10.36 14.1 P/S 2.17 1.32 2.42 0.82 1.35 P/E 19.79 14.57 44.19 19.12 14.3 Multiples Current Target Multiple Target / Current Expected EPS Target Price P/E 19.97 20 1.002 2.94 60.00 P/B 2.73 2.5 0.916 51.48 P/S 2.17 22 1.014 55.00 P/EBITDA 8.39 9.4 1.12 54.52 Average of Target Prices 55.25 Upside Potential over Current Stock Price ($58.42) -5% Discounted Cash Flow Terminal Discount Rate = Year Revenue % Growth Operating Income Operating Margin 11.0% FY2015 $ 70,838 3.0% $ 15,596 2.9% Interest Interest % of Sales Taxes Tax Rate Net Income % Growth Add Depreciation/Amort % of Sales $ (2,664) $ (2,704) $ 1.8% 1.5% $ (3,100) $ (3,569) $ 29.0% 29.0% $ 7,589 $ 8,738 $ 9.0% $ 6,394 $ 6,458 $ 9.0% 8.8% Plus/(minus) Changes WC % of Sales Subtract Cap Ex Capex % of sales Free Cash Flow % Growth (1,243) -1.8% FY2016 $ 73,672 4.0% $ 17,172 3.0% (1,330) -1.8% FY2017 $ 76,987 5.0% $ 19,207 3.1% Terminal Growth = FY2018 $ 80,836 4.5% $ 21,806 3.0% 3.00% FY2019 $ 84,474 4.5% $ 22,460 3.0% (2,745) 1.5% (4,167) 29.0% 10,202 9.0% 6,529 8.5% $ (2,786) $ 1.5% $ (4,924) $ 29.0% $ 12,056 $ 9.0% $ 6,607 $ 8.2% (1,593) -2.1% (1,541) -1.9% $ (8,681) $ (10,244) $ (12,395) -12.3% -13.9% -16.1% 4,058 3,622 2,742 -10.7% -24.3% FY2020 $ 88,275 4.5% $ 23,134 3.0% (2,828) $ 1.5% (6,352) $ 29.0% 13,141 $ 9.0% 6,938 $ 5.0% $ (1,566) 1.6% FY2021 $ 92,248 4.5% $ 23,828 3.0% FY2022 $ 95,938 4.0% $ 24,543 3.0% FY2023 FY2024 $ 98,816 $ 101,780 3.0% 3.0% $ 25,279 $ 26,037 3.0% 3.0% (2,870) $ (2,913) $ (2,957) $ (3,001) $ (3,046) 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% (8,194) $ (10,571) $ (13,636) $ (17,591) $ (22,692) 29.0% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0% 14,337 $ 15,756 $ 17,284 $ 18,840 $ 20,535 9.1% 9.9% 9.7% 9.0% 9.0% 7,250 $ 7,540 $ 7,766 $ 7,921 $ 7,921 4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% $ (1,591) 1.6% $ (1,616) 1.6% $ (1,642) 1.6% $ (1,669) $ 1.6% (1,695) 1.6% $ (15,122) $ (13,308) $ (11,711) $ (10,305) -18.7% -12.0% -12.0% -12.0% $ 1,999 $ 5,205 $ 8,285 $ 11,374 -27.1% 160.3% 59.2% 37.3% $ (9,069) -12.0% $ 14,339 26.1% $ (7,981) $ -12.0% $ 17,112 $ 19.3% (7,023) -12.0% 19,739 15.3% Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) Termial FCF Growth NPV of Cash Flows NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield Current P/E Projected P/E Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA Shares Outstanding Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Downside) to DCF Debt 42,778 122,406 165,184 2.69% 19.9 21.8 10.6 11.3 2,580 $ 58.42 $ 64.02 9.6% 82,334 $ 64.02 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% $ $ $ $ $ 26% 74% 100% 17.2 18.9 9.9 10.5 14.8 16.2 9.1 9.6 12.5 13.7 8.2 8.7 Terminal Discount Rate 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 79.69 $ 67.66 $ 58.34 $ 50.94 84.70 $ 71.26 $ 61.02 $ 52.98 90.55 $ 75.37 $ 64.02 $ 55.24 97.46 $ 80.11 $ 67.43 $ 57.78 105.76 $ 85.65 $ 71.33 $ 60.63 $ $ $ $ $ Terminal Value $ 254,134 Free Cash Yield Terminal P/E 7.77% 12.4 Terminal EV/EBITDA 11.3 13.0% 44.92 46.51 48.26 50.20 52.35 Conclusion • Current Price: $58.42 • Multiples Price: $55.25 • DCF Price: $64.02 • Weighted Price (80/20): $62.27 • Hold • Target Price: 6.59% upside Fossil, Inc. (FOSL) Terminal Discount Rate = FY2015 $ 3,458,503 3.0% $ 669,328 3.1% $ 9,837 1.5% 12.0% FY2016 $ 3,562,258 3.0% $ 733,547 3.0% $ 9,984 1.5% FY2017 $ 3,669,126 3.0% $ 801,380 2.9% $ 10,164 1.8% FY2018 $ 3,834,237 4.5% $ 825,422 3.0% $ 10,316 1.5% Terminal Growth = FY2019 $ 4,006,777 4.5% $ 850,184 3.0% $ 10,471 1.5% 3.00% FY2020 $ 4,187,082 4.5% $ 875,690 3.0% $ 10,628 1.5% FY2021 $ 4,354,566 4.0% $ 901,961 3.0% $ 10,788 1.5% FY2022 $ 4,485,203 3.0% $ 929,019 3.0% $ 10,949 1.5% FY2023 $ 4,619,759 3.0% $ 956,890 3.0% $ 11,114 1.5% $ (179,827) 26.9% $ 486,292 10.5% $ (196,987) 26.9% $ 533,350 3.0% $ (215,174) 26.9% $ 582,932 3.0% 0.0% (92,184) -2.7% 0.0% (95,841) -2.7% 0.0% (101,800) -2.8% $ (273,056) 26.9% $ 600,420 3.0% $ 5.0% $ (100,172) -1.6% $ (346,508) 26.9% $ 618,433 3.0% $ 4.5% $ (98,569) -1.6% $ (439,718) 26.9% $ 636,986 3.0% $ 4.0% $ (96,992) -1.6% $ (558,002) 26.9% $ 656,095 3.0% $ 3.0% $ (95,440) -1.6% $ (708,105) 26.9% $ 675,778 3.0% $ 2.0% $ (93,913) -1.6% $ (898,585) 26.9% $ 696,052 3.0% $ 0.0% $ (92,410) -1.6% $ (165,890) -4.7% 271,620 7.1% $ (194,091) -5.3% $ 287,041 5.7% $ (188,268) -3.0% $ 311,981 8.7% $ (182,620) -3.0% $ 337,244 8.1% $ (177,141) -3.0% $ 362,853 7.6% $ (171,827) -3.0% $ 388,828 7.2% $ (166,672) -3.0% $ 415,193 6.8% $ (161,672) -3.0% $ 441,969 6.4% 1,742,161 (140,584) -4.1% 253,523 11.4% 43% 2,288,024 4,030,185 57% 100% Terminal Value $ 5,058,092 Free Cash Yield 8.74% Year Revenue % Growth Operating Income Operating Margin Interest Interest % of Sales FY2014 $ 3,357,770 3.0% $ 599,418 3.0% $ 9,691 1.5% Taxes Tax Rate Net Income % Growth Add Depreciation/Amort % of Sales Plus/(minus) Changes WC % of Sales $ (161,122) 26.9% $ 435,063 Subtract Cap Ex Capex % of sales Free Cash Flow % Growth NPV of Cash Flows $ (116,185) -3.5% 227,599 0.0% (91,279) -2.7% NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield 5.25% Current P/E Projected P/E Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA Shares Outstanding Current Price Implied equity value/share $ 10.0 9.3 8.9 8.3 8.1 7.6 7.4 6.9 Terminal P/E 7.3 8.0 7.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 Terminal EV/EBITDA 6.9 51,080 $ $ 81.53 78.90 Downside to DCF -7.0% Recommendation Recommendation Target Price Current Weight in SIM Fund Recommended Weight Company Name Ticker Current Price Comcast Corporation CMCSA $58.42 $62.27 188bps 276bps DirecTV DTV $87.43 $94.09 232bps 332bps Michael Kors Holdings Limited KORS $62.16 $67.73 199bps 199bps Service Corp International SCI $27.28 $29.25 64bps 0bps Fossil, Inc. FOSL $81.53 $78.90 0bps 0bps Harley Davidson HOG $61.77 $73.67 0bps 200bps Ralph & Lauren Corporation RL $136.95 $140.83 0bps 0bps Thank You!