Team Members: Alicia Kubokawa Caleb Benn
Kelly Prim
Shane Armstrong
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of a Green Campus Motor Fleet Decision Support System
Project Overview
• FAA must comply with DOT’s 2020 environmental milestone to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of their motor fleet
• Simulating demand to find optimal fleet size and LCC of alternatively fueled vehicles at the technical and aeronautical campuses
– Reduce fleet CO2 emissions
– Reduce fleet LCC – Meet current and future campus demand
2
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Context
Stakeholders
Scope
Gap
Problem Statement
Need Statement
System Requirements
Alternatives
Simulation Information
Project Management
3
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Context
Stakeholders
Scope
Gap
Problem Statement
Need Statement
System Requirements
Alternatives
Simulation Information
Project Management
4
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
kWh
Energy Power Consumption: U.S. & The World
Year
Energy Information Administration
When compared to the average consumption of the entire world the U.S. is one of the largest fossil fuel consumers in the world. 5
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Million Metric Tons
Greenhouse Gas Equivalent Emissions: The World & U.S.
Year
World Bank
With rising greenhouse gas emission rates the U.S. contributes about 1/6th of all greenhouse
Gas emissions due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuel energies. 6
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Gas pump prices: U.S. & the World
The World Bank
There is an increasing trend in in gas prices, which is making it less feasible to utilize purely petroleum consuming vehicles.
7
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
United States Federal Government Fleet Metrics
Fuel Type
Vehicles
Gasoline
Percent
Cost Type
Dollars
Percent
380,000 54%
Diesel
85,000 12%
Depreciation
$ 1,000,000,000 23%
Gasoline Hybrid
16,000 2%
Maintenance
$ 1,000,000,000 23%
140 0%
1,400 0%
Indirect
$ 250,000,000 6%
Diesel LGHG
70 0%
Comm. Lease
$ 73,000,000 2%
Hybrid
10 0%
GSA Lease
$ 1,100,000,000 25%
CNG
5,000 1%
E‐85
170,000 24%
Fuel
$ 1,000,000,000 23%
4,000 1%
Total
$ 4,400,000,000 Hydrogen
10 0%
LNG
‐
0%
LPG
150 0%
Diesel Hybrid
Gasoline LGHG
Electric
Grand Total
700,000 2011 Federal Fleet Repot
8
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
United States Federal Government Fleet Metrics
2011 United States Federal Fleet Inventory
Cost Mileage
Gallons of Gas
660,000
4,400,000,000
5,200,000,000
320,000,000
U.S. Government Worldwide Ground Fleet Fuel Consumption by Year
U.S. Government Worldwide Ground Fleet Emissions by Year
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
‐
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Carbon emission (thousands of metric tons)
Fuel consumption ( millions of gallons )
500.00
4,000.00
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
‐
Time
2011 Federal Fleet Repot 9
2006
2007
2008
2009
Time
* Fuel types included are gas, diesel
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
2010
2011
2012
United States Federal Government Fleet Metrics
2011 United States Federal Fleet Inventory
Cost Mileage
Gallons of Gas
660,000
4,400,000,000
5,200,000,000
320,000,000
U.S. Government Worldwide Ground Fleet Cost by Year
U.S. Government Worldwide Ground Fleet Vehicle Inventory by Year
$4,000
Inventory Count (1k)
Cost in Dollars (100k)
$5,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$‐
2006
2007
2008
2009
Year
2010
2011
2012
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
2011 Federal Fleet Repot
10
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
2011
2012
U.S. Government Requirements
• Executive Order 13514 October 5, 2009
– Government has the power to affect industry and increase the availability of alternative fuels
– 30% reduction in petroleum use of vehicle fleet
– Fleet size optimization
• Presidential Memorandum – Federal Fleet Performance May 24 2011
– Establishes national goal to reduce oil imports by one‐third by 2025 date
– Provides guidance to executive departments to meet E.O. 13514
– Requires all vehicles leased or purchased to be alternatively fueled by December 31 2015, • Hybrid, electric, compressed natural gas, biofuel, etc.
11
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
• Agency within the Department of Transportation (DOT)
• Operates the National Airspace System (NAS)
• Resources include more than 48,000 employees and a 2013 budget of $15.2 billion • Mission
– Our continuing mission is to provide the safest, most efficient aerospace system in the world.
• Vision
– We strive to reach the next level of safety, efficiency, environmental responsibility and global leadership. We are accountable to the American public and our stakeholders.
12
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
FAA Operational Campuses
• William J. Hughes Technical Center (near Atlantic City, NJ)
• Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center (Oklahoma City, OK)
• Both centers use vehicles to perform operational and administrative tasks
 Operational task: task requiring the use of equipment
• IT, grounds work, maintenance & repair
 Administrative task: task transporting personnel or mail
• Meetings, mail transport
13
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
William J. Hughes Technical Center
Location: 10 miles north of Atlantic City, NJ
Size: ~ 5,000 acre or 7.8 square miles (7x GMU campus size)
Functions: Engineering research, development, testing
Vehicles: 47 GSA leased
Tech Center (ACT)
Building Type
# of FAA Buildings Sq Ft
10 ‐ Office
8
23 ‐ School
0
29 ‐ Other Institutional Uses
0
41 ‐ Warehouses
22
60 ‐ Service
3
72 ‐ Communications Systems
0
73 ‐ Navigation and Traffic Aids
2
74 ‐ Laboratories
43
80 ‐ All Other
14
TOTAL
92
Personnel
55,362
0
0
177,135
153,136
0
8,348
1,120,020
43,418
1,557,419
264
0
0
203
196
0
0
2,538
21
3,222
Sponsor‐given data
14
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center
Location: Oklahoma City , OK
Size: ~ 1,000 acre or 1.6 square miles
Functions: logistics, administrative, training
Vehicles: 42 GSA leased
Mike Monroney (AMC)
Building Type
# of FAA Buildings Sq Ft
10 ‐ Office
18
23 ‐ School
32
29 ‐ Other Institutional Uses
3
41 ‐ Warehouses
34
60 ‐ Service
16
72 ‐ Communications Systems
2
73 ‐ Navigation and Traffic Aids
9
74 ‐ Laboratories
3
80 ‐ All Other
8
TOTAL
125
Personnel
722,257
606,408
17,075
713,267
260,839
937
19,532
174,098
9,029
2,523,442
2,902
1,334
114
487
674
0
28
242
1
5,782
Sponsor‐given data
15
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Campus Travel Blackbox
16
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Campus System Process
17
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Motor Fleet Inventory Processes
Motor Fleet Inventory Chain
FAA Logistics Division
Vehicle Need
Oper
Yes
No ‐ Admin
Fleet Managers
Division by Charge Group
Vehicle Request
Assign Vehicle
Vehicle Selected
Vehicle Assigned
Avail
Vehicle Returned
Execute Trip
Motor Fleet Inventory Vehicle Check out
No
Request Vehicle from Fleet Manager
18
Yes
Branch by Division
Fleet Manager Selects Vehicle from another charge group
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Context
Stakeholders
Scope
Gap
Problem Statement
Need Statement
System Requirements
Alternatives
Simulation Information
Project Management
19
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Stakeholder Flowchart
20
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Stakeholder Flowchart
21
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Primary Stakeholders
Major Stakeholders
FAA
Objective
Develop a sustainment plan and policy to meet the requirements handed down by the DOT.
Establish targets and track, verify, and grade progress of Federal CEQ Chair/OMB Departments towards requirements Director
mandated by E.O. 13514.
Continue to meet transportation Fleet Managers demand while keeping costs low.
Use vehicles to accomplish work Vehicle Users responsibilities more efficiently.
Provide guidance for Presidential
GSA
mandate for Federal Fleet Performance.
Community
Clean local environment Tension
The requirements given to the FAA are in addition to FAA’s primary mission, of aviation safety, and must be met using existing resources.
Targets can be a challenge to meet
Decreased fleet inventory may complicate allocation of vehicles.
Alternative transportation systems may present a change in the way in which job related tasks are completed.
Additional reporting requirements.
Additional tax costs
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Key Stakeholder Flowchart
23
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Context
Stakeholders
Scope
Gap
Problem Statement
Need Statement
System Requirements
Alternatives
Simulation Information
Project Management
24
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Scope
• To meet greenhouse gas emission reduction requirements created for the FAA, our design will focus on reducing vehicle emissions of the FAA operational center motor fleets.
• Optimize the motor fleet size of the AMC and ACT
– Meet the current travel demand
– Maintain or reduce total cost
– Increased usage of alternatively fueled vehicles (i.e. low speed electric vehicles)
• Out of Scope:
o Emergency Vehicles (vehicles not used for day to day operations)
o Heavy Duty Vehicles (weight rating over 26,000 lbs.)
25
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Gap Analysis
Technical and Aeronautical Campus Carbon Emissions vs. Time CO2 emissions (metric tons/year)
Travel demand
(avg. miles driven / year)
264 [2]
12.3% 419000
[1]
[4]
[3]
Carbon neutral
2007
2013
Time (years)
2020
1. Campus CO2 emissions slope derived from 2007–2011 U.S. Government ground fleet emissions trend.
2. 2013 avg. emissions calculated from AMT & ACT GSA leased inventory.
3. Percent derived from Executive Order 13514 petroleum reduction requirements
4. 2013 avg. demand was calculated from AMT & ACT GSA leased inventory.
6,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
‐
2006 2008 2010 2012
Problem Statement
FAA must comply with DOT’s environmental milestone to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from owned or leased vehicles by 12.3% by 2020 compared to a FY 2008 baseline, as derived from E.O. 13514 and the Presidential Memorandum on Federal Fleet Performance
The FAA must lower its greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the number of reportable vehicles in the fleet; while meeting current and future demand within existing funding
27
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
The Need
• A system that reduces CO2 emissions by 12.3% by analysis of current FAA motor fleet vehicles that will:
– Optimize fleet size
– Identify vehicles as candidates to be replaced
– Alternative candidates that can meet demand
– Provide total life cycle cost estimates of the existing fleet and altered fleets (substitution of alternative transportation)
28
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Context
Stakeholders
Scope
Gap
Problem Statement
Need Statement
System Requirements
Alternatives
Simulation Information
Project Management
29
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
System Requirements
The following mission requirements have been derived from our stakeholders.
• The system shall analyze the life cycle costs of the current inventory versus alternatives.
• The system shall propose alternatives that lower the level of carbon dioxide emissions by 12.3% at the Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center and the William J. Hughes Technical Center.
• The system shall propose alternatives that can meet current and expected travel demand through 2020.
• The system shall simulate one full year of demand.
30
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Alternatives
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
31
Status Quo
Low Speed Electric Vehicle (LSEV) Portfolio
Neighborhood Electric Vehicle (NEV) Portfolio
Compressed Natural Gas Portfolio
Combination of LSEVs and Traditional Alternatives Portfolio
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
STATUS QUO
NEV’s
32
LSEV’s
CNGV’s
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Alternative Comparison
Alternative
Suitable for all Avg. Carbon Conversion Meet Battery Cost types of weather & Acquisition Emissions?
Cost
demand?
terrain?
Cost
Status Quo
Yes
‐
‐
$65‐100
Yes
Yes
LSEV's
Yes
$5,200
X
$65‐100
No
Zero
NEV's
Yes
$11,000
X
$100‐200/kWh
No
Zero
Yes
30% less than oil, 45% less than coal
Natural Gas
Yes
$26,500
$12,000‐
$18,000
http://www.exide.com/us/en/product‐solutions/motive‐
power/applications‐motive/nev‐motive.aspx
33
X
Note
‐ Not on track to meet DOT requirements
‐ Meet stakeholders expectations
‐ Registration Requirement
‐ Average top speed of 35mph
‐ Potential lack of fueling infrastructure ‐ Tax incentive
‐ Lower fuel cost $2.14 GGE* vs. $3.14/gallon
*GGE = Gasoline Gallon Equivalent
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Alternatives Summary
Requirements
Maintain Meet Reduce Reduce Reduce Meets requirement
Reportable Operational or Reduce Feasible Additional research required
Inventory Emissions
LCC
Demand
Inventory
Status Quo
X
X
X



LSEVs
‐










NEVs
‐
‐
Shuttle
‐
X
X


Bikes
X
X




Alternatives
Natural Gas
‐
‐
‐
‐


‐
VTC/Telecom
X




Higher MPG Vehicles
X
X
X



‐
‐
‐
H2 Vehicles
X


LSEVs and Traditional Alternatives
‐





Does not meet requirement
34
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Context
Stakeholders
Scope
Gap
Problem Statement
Need Statement
System Requirements
Alternatives
Simulation Information
Project Management
35
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Phases of Simulation
•
•
•
•
•
Data and Cost Analysis
Demand Analysis
Deterministic LCC
Stochastic LCC
Utility Analysis and Rankings of different portfolios
36
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Data Analysis
• Building data
• Personnel data
• Vehicle data
37
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
William J. Hughes Technical Center
Tech Center Building Makeup
William J. Hughes Technical Center
1
0.9
Location : Atlantic City, NJ
Motor Fleet:
– Vehicle inventory: 47 GSA leased
– Estimated average monthly CO2 emissions (metric ton): 0.13
0.8
% # of FAA Buildings
0.7
Percent
•
•
% Sq ft
0.6
% Personnel
0.5
0.4
0.3
ACT
Admin
Ops
Buildings
11 (12%)
81 (88%)
0.2
Personnel
460 (14%)
2762 (86%)
Data and calculations from campus building database
38
0.1
0
Building Types Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center
Aeronautical Center Building Makeup
Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center
0.9
Location : Oklahoma City , OK
Motor Fleet:
–
–
Vehicle inventory: 42 GSA leased Estimated average monthly CO2 emissions (metric ton): 0.5
0.8
Percent
•
•
1
% # of FAA Buildings
0.7
% Sq ft
0.6
% Personnel
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
AMC
Admin
Ops
Buildings
91 (73%)
34 (27%)
Personnel
3566 (62%)
2206 (38%)
0.1
Data and calculations from campus building database
39
0
Building Types Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Inventory Statistics
CG
Number of Inventory
Number Operational Vehicles
Number Administrative Vehicles
Average Vehicle MPG* (1)
Total Monthly CO2 Emissions (t)
Average Monthly Miles Driven
Average Monthly Lease Cost
Tech Center Vehicle Fuel Types
Technical Center
42.0
Aeronautical Center
47.0
28.0
32.0
25
19.0
2.0
20
18.0
14.9
30
ACT
15
AMC
10
6.4
15.7
5
245.6
550.2
267.7
245.1
0
Ethanol
Gasoline
Hybrid
Calculations are based off GSA leased vehicle inventory 40
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Diesel
Inventory Statistics
Vehicle inventory
Technical Center
Monthly Mileage by Type
Aeronautical Center
Technical Center
Number of Vehicles
20
Total Average Monthly Mileage
25
21
15
10
10
5
0
8
6
11
10
7
8
1
1
Sedan Minivan
Van
SUV
Pickup
2 0
3 1
Bus
Other
Aeronautical Center
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Sedan Minivan Van
SUV
Pickup
Vehicle Type
Vehicle Type
Calculations are based off GSA leased vehicle inventory 41
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Bus
Other
Campus Vehicle Demand
Vehicle Usage
Average Monthly CO2 Emissions
35
25
30
20
15
10
Tech Center
Aero Center
# of Vehicles # of Vehicles
25
20
Tech Center
15
Aero Center
10
5
5
0
0
0‐.1
Average Monthly Miles
A vehicle’s monthly mileage is affected by its assigned division and branch and its off campus demand
.11‐.2
.21‐.3
>.3
Average Monthly CO2 emissions per month (metric tons)
A vehicle’s CO2 emissions are a function of its fuel type, fuel economy, and miles driven
Calculations are based off GSA leased vehicle inventory 42
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Design of Experiment
•
•
•
•
•
•
Reduce CO2 emissions by optimizing motor fleet inventory.
Travel demand will be simulated for one year for each of the campuses.
Campus operations will be modeled stochastically as a queuing system. The optimal fleet size will calculated by creating vehicle objects until an optimal vehicle utilization is reached.
The optimal fleet with alternatives will then be run through a deterministic and stochastic life cycle cost model.
A utility versus cost comparison will be conducted to determine the best recommendation.
43
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Design of Experiment
Demand Model Inputs
Outputs
Historic Data
Demand Data
Inventory Data
Number of Vehicles Required
CO2 emissions
Status Quo
Campus Statistics
Current Expected Value
Vehicles In Use
No Change in Inventory
Emissions from current inventory
Vehicle Portfolios
Campus Statistics
Current Expected Value
Vehicles In Use
Vehicles Required to Meet Demand
Emissions from new inventory
Alternatives
44
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Design of Experiment
Deterministic Life Cycle Cost Model
Inputs
Acquisition Cost (Cacq)
Energy Maintenance Costs Consumption (Cmaint)
Cost (Cener)
Outputs
Total Life Cycle Costs
Alternatives
Status Quo
Purchase/Lease Cost
Overhead Cost
Labor
Parts
Disposal
Fuel Costs
Summation of inputs
Vehicle Portfolios
Purchase Cost ‐
Incentives + Overhead Cost
Labor
Parts
Disposal
Electric/Fuel/
Compressed Gas Costs
Summation of inputs
Stochastic Life Cycle Cost Model
Inputs
Acquisition Cost (Cacq)
Energy Maintenance Costs Consumption (Cmaint)
Cost (Cener)
Outputs
Total Life Cycle Costs
Alternatives
45
Status Quo
Purchase/Lease Cost
Overhead Cost
Labor
Parts
Disposal
Fuel Costs
Summation of inputs (Projected)
Vehicle Portfolios
Purchase Cost ‐
Incentives + Overhead Cost
Labor
Parts
Disposal
Electric/Fuel/
Compressed Gas Costs
Summation of inputs (Projected)
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Physical Process
• General Equation C02 emissions = •
2
• Vehicle utilization = * ∗
• Average vehicle utilization = • Average vehicle waiting time = n
C acq
n
n
C ma int
C ener





t
t
t
t 1 (1  d )
t 1 (1  d )
t 1 (1  d )
• Price of electricity: 1 GGE = 33.4 kWh
46
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Method of Analysis
47
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Black Box
Historic Statistical Data to Demand Model
Optimized Fleet to LCC Models
Fleet Mix
Campus Demand
# of Buildings
Service Time
Inter‐Arrival Time
# of Passengers
48
Demand Model
Vehicle Inventory
Vehicle Max Utilization
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
AMC Distributions
AMC Variables
Units
Distrubtion
Min
Off Campus Op Arrival
events/day
Exponential
TBD
Off Campus Admin Arrival
events/day
Exponential
TBD
On Campus Op Arrival
events/day
Exponential
TBD
On Campus Admin Arrival
events/day
Exponential
TBD
Service Time
hours
Triangle
0.5
Charge code
Charge code weighted discrete
People demand operational
people
discrete
People demand Admin
people
discrete
Origin Building
building weighted discrete
Destination Building
building weighted discrete
OR Distance Aero
49
miles
lognormal
Max
Mean
N/A
1
1
N/A
N/A
Reasoning
Lack of data and the actual distribution is unknown. Traditionally arrivals can be modeled TBD
.095
as exponential. It is a well established distrobution.
Lack of data and the actual distribution is unknown. Traditionally arrivals can be modeled TBD
.088
as exponential. It is a well established distrobution.
Lack of data and the actual distribution is unknown. Traditionally arrivals can be modeled TBD
244
as exponential. It is a well established distrobution.
Lack of data and the actual distribution is unknown. Traditionally arrivals can be modeled TBD
86
as exponential. It is a well established distrobution.
Recently received data to analysize data 6.5
TBD
distribution more accurately. Max and min derived from sponsor discussions.
N/A dependent
Weighted by inventory size of charge code
3
1
A certain range of passegners is more common 4
2
A certain range of passegners is more common N/A dependent
Based on the event type.
N/A dependent
Based on the event type.
0.015
2.1
.07
The Aero Center's buildings are tightly spaced and we expect a small variance
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Distributions
ACT Distributions
ACT Variables
Units
Distrubtion
Min
Off Campus Op Arrival
events/day
Exponential
TBD
Off Campus Admin Arrival
events/day
Exponential
TBD
On Campus Op Arrival
events/day
Exponential
TBD
On Campus Admin Arrival
events/day
Exponential
TBD
Service Time
hours
Triangle
0.5
Charge code
Charge code weighted discrete
People demand operational
people
discrete
People demand Admin
people
discrete
Origin Building
building weighted discrete
Destination Building
building weighted discrete
OR Distance Tech
50
miles
triangular
Max
Mean
N/A
1
1
N/A
N/A
Reasoning
Lack of data and the actual distribution is unknown. Traditionally arrivals can be modeled TBD
0.088
as exponential. It is a well established distrobution.
Lack of data and the actual distribution is unknown. Traditionally arrivals can be modeled TBD
0.01
as exponential. It is a well established distrobution.
Lack of data and the actual distribution is unknown. Traditionally arrivals can be modeled TBD
145
as exponential. It is a well established distrobution.
Lack of data and the actual distribution is unknown. Traditionally arrivals can be modeled TBD
24
as exponential. It is a well established distrobution.
Recently received data to analysize data 6.5
TBD
distribution more accurately. Max and min derived from sponsor discussions.
N/A dependent
Weighted by inventory size of charge code
3
1
A certain range of passegners is more common 4
2
A certain range of passegners is more common N/A dependent
Weighted by the event type.
N/A dependent
Weighted by the event type.
0.015
3.3
.44
The Tech Center's buildings are farther spaced and have a large variance in distance
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Demand Model
51
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Demand Model
52
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Demand Model
53
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Life Cycle Cost Modeling
Will need to take into account:
• Capital investment
• Energy consumption/costs
• Maintenance costs
• Disposal costs/ Salvage revenue
• Management/overhead costs
Life Cycle Cost formula
• Lifecycle cost= Acquisition ‐ Incentives + Maintenance & Repair + Energy
• L(x)= A(x) – I(x) + M(x)+ E(x)
• Where x is in terms of present values by discounting
• PV= FV/(1+i)^n
n
C acq
n
C ma int
C ener





t
t
t
t 1 (1  d )
t 1 (1  d )
t 1 (1  d )
54
n
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Acquisition Costs
Type of Vehicle
Year
Brand
Model
Cost
CNG
2013
Honda
Civic
$26,300
CNG
2014
GMC
Savanna
$26,700
CNG
‐
‐
‐
$12,000‐$18,000
Median $15,000
LSEV
‐
Taylor Dunn
ET150
$8,000
LSEV
‐
Columbia
Par Car
$7,500
55
Note
Conversion of existing vehicles
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Maintenance and Energy Costs
Fuel Type
Oil Change
Brake Pad Replacement
Brake Caliper and Rotor Replacement
Tire Replacement
Fluid Replacement
Misc. Replacements
CNG Cylinder Replacement
CNG
$30 $90 $250 $500 $75 $100 $1,000 ‐
‐
Electricity
$30 $90 $250 $500 $75 $100 ‐
$65 $2,299.98 Gasoline
$30 $90 $250 $500 $75 $100 ‐
$65 ‐
•
Maintenance Formula:
oilchange
tires
fluid
,
2 brakepad vehiclelife
misc. CNGcylinder
vehiclelife
20
brakepad
smallbattery
vehiclelife
4
Small Battery Large Battery Replacement Replacement
caliperandrotor
largebattery
vehiclelife
3
‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
Fuel Type
Fuel Cost (GGE)*+
Average Fuel Consumption per Vehicle (gal.)
Projected Fuel Cost per Vehicle
Fuel Type
ACT
AMC
42.07
15.11
ACT
AMC
CNG
$ 1,080.35 $ 388.02 CNG
$ 2.14 Electricity
$ 3.49 Electricity
$ 1,761.89 $ 632.81 Gasoline
$ 3.65 Gasoline
$ 1,842.67 $ 661.82 http://www.autohub360.com/index.php/calculating‐car‐maintenance‐costs‐2‐7761/ ;
Sponsor data (an analysis by Southwest Facility support, LLC)
56
* All fuel costs based on national average
+ GGE = Gasoline Gallon Equivalent
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Simulation Hypothesis
H10: The Life Cycle Costs of the motor fleet portfolios at the FAA aeronautical and technical centers containing alternative vehicles will be the same as the status quo motor fleet portfolio.
H11: The Life Cycle Costs of the motor fleet portfolios at the aeronautical and technical centers containing alternative vehicles will be less than the status quo motor fleet portfolio.
H20: The carbon dioxide emissions of the alternative motor fleet portfolios will be less than the status quo motor fleet portfolio.
H21: The carbon dioxide emissions of the alternative motor fleet portfolios will be less than the status quo motor fleet portfolio.
57
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Recommendations (thus far)
• Utilize Video Teleconference and Teleworking resources when appropriate.
• Centralize motor pool • Keep track of individual usage
– Trip time
– Trip length
– Reason for vehicle
• Use LSEV’s in place of administrative vehicles with terrain and weather permitting. (tentative)
• Use LSEV’s in place of operational vehicles carrying loads weighing no more than YY lbs. (tentative)
58
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Context
Stakeholders
Scope
Gap
Problem Statement
Need Statement
System Requirements
Alternatives
Simulation Information
Project Management
59
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Project Management
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Value Hierarchy
Cost vs. Utility
WBS
Project Schedule
Risk
Budget
CPI/SPI
60
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Value Hierarchy
FAA Campus Transportation Alternatives
Efficiency
Utility
Demand
61
Maximum Weight
Maximum Capacity
CO2 Emission Reduction
Power Consumption
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Notional Cost vs. Utility
3.5
3
Utility Value
2.5
2
1.5
Alternatives
1
0.5
0
0
62
0.5
1
1.5
2
Total Life Cycle Cost
2.5
3
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
FAA Campus Transportation System
Management
Research
1.0
Data Analysis
2.0
Assign Tasks
Stakeholders
1.1
Group Meetings
1.2
Sponsor Meetings
1.3
Project Schedule
1.4
Project Plan
2.1
E.O. 13514
2.2
FAA Strategic Plan
2.3
Fleet Inventory
2.4
Electric Vehicles
1.5
CONOPS
3.0
2.5
Alternative Low Speed Vehicles
2.6
Design Alternatives
4.0
Trend Data on Electric Vehicles
Context
3.1
4.1
Trend Data on Alternative Fuels
Problem Statement
3.2
Trend Data on Fuel Consumption
3.3
Trend Analysis of Life Cycle Costs
3.4
Design of Experiment Analysis
3.5
Sensitivity Analysis
Documentation
5.0
4.2
Need Statement
4.3
Stakeholder Tensions
4.4
Mission Requirements
LSEV Vehicle Replacement
Requirements
6.0
Deliverables
5.1
Campus Shuttle System
Rework
7.1
Functional
6.2
Report
Performance
Presentation
Brainstorm
Trade Off Analysis
Preparation
8.1
Financial Model ROI
Validation
10.2
Faculty Presentation
9.3
Dry Run
Verification
10.3
SIEDS
9.4
10.4
West Point
8.5
Results
3.6
Conclusions
63
10.1
IEEE Paper
Revision
8.4
4.5
Poster
9.2
8.3
7.4
10.0
9.1
8.2
7.3
Derived
6.4
Competition 9.0
Energy Trends & Power Consumption
7.2
6.3
5.3
Presentation
8.0
Originating
6.1
5.2
Alternative Fuel Vehicle Replacement
Simulation
7.0
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
10.5
Project Schedule
64
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Project Risk
Initial Risk Level
17
23
7
15
Risk Description
Mitigation
IF the government shutdown continues, 1. Develop business rules to approximate THEN the collection of data will be slowed missing data
IF not enough hours are dedicated to the 1. Start on simulation earlier.
simulation, THEN results will not be 2. Schedule more hours for simulation work
available for analysis
IF alternatives do not meet future demand 1. Add potential projection of future demand to THEN fleet inventory needs will be incorrect
simulation based on FAA hiring trends
IF assumptions used for simulation are 1. Consult subject matter experts
2. Seek approval from sponsors
incorrect THEN results will be misleading
Mitigation Mitigated Completion Risk level
date
10/25/2013
8
Complete
6
1/1/2014
6
11/1/2013
9
Risk Management Guide for DOD Acquisition 6th ed. August, 2006
65
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Budget
Budget
$80,000.00
$70,000.00
$60,000.00
Dollars
$50,000.00
PV
$40,000.00
AC
Worst Case
$30,000.00
Best Case
$20,000.00
$10,000.00
$0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Weeks
66
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
CPI/SPI
CPI vs SPI
1.40
1.20
1.00
Ratio
0.80
CPI
0.60
SPI
0.40
0.20
0.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Weeks
67
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Reference
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
68
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013‐03‐24/business/37989930_1_new‐employees‐cost‐
savings‐retention‐of‐talented‐employees
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/2012/03/the‐natural‐gas‐alternative/index.htm
http://www.telegram.com/article/20130716/COLUMN83/307169973/1011
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/ghg/global‐ghg‐emissions.html
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/ghg/us‐ghg‐emissions.html
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=23&t=10
http://www.census.gov/popclock/
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/regulations/eo13514.html#ftm
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=93&t=4
http://www.eco‐wheelz.com/articles/pros‐and‐cons‐of‐electric‐bikes.php
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2011‐temps.html
http://www.buzzle.com/articles/hydrogen‐cars‐pros‐and‐cons.html
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/pdfs/lcc_guide_05.pdf
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Questions?
69
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Backup Slides
70
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Carbon Emissions
The World
• Global carbon dioxide emissions numbered close to 40,000 million metric tons in 2005
U.S.
• U.S. produced about 6,702 million metric tons in 2011
– 27% of which created through gas usage, transportation – 26% increase since 1990 – U.S. responsible for ~ 7,000 million metric tons
Note: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions constitute 95‐99% of vehicle greenhouse gas emissions
71
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Presidential Memorandum – Federal Fleet Performance May 24 2011
– Establishes national goal to reduce oil imports by one‐third by 2025 date
– Provides guidance to executive departments to meet E.O. 13514
– Requires all vehicles leased or purchased to be alternatively fueled by December 31 2015, • Hybrid, electric, compressed natural gas, biofuel, etc.
– Calls for maximum fuel efficiency
– Limits vehicle body size, engine size, and optional equipment essential to meet agency mission – Requires General Services Administration (GSA) to develop Vehicle Allocation Methodology (VAM) to determine optimum 72
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Trips per hour calculation
Derivation for Avg On‐Campus Operational Service Tickets per hour TotalMiles – OFFmiles = ONmiles
ONmiles/ Days = OND
OND/length = TripsDay
TripsDay/8 = TripsHour
TotalMiles = (Total Average Monthly miles)
OFFmiles = (Off‐Campus Operational Monthly miles)
ONmiles = Average On‐Campus Operational Monthly miles
Days = (Average Number of work days per month (~20))
OND = Average On‐Campus Operational miles per day
length = Average operational trip length
TripsDay = Average operational trips per day
TripsHour = Average operational trips per hour
73
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Trips/day Calculations
DATA ASSUMPTIONS
AMC
ATC
Total Mileage
Given
Given
OFF% ‐
based on talks with based on frequency of fleet manager and high mileage vehicles mileage frequency of vehicles
Days
250 work days a year 250 work days a year including 10 holidays including 10 holidays
ONDayDemand
OFFDayDemand
based on ON
based on OFF
based on ON
based on OFF
ON AVG length
based on geometry of based on geometry of the campus
the campus
OFF AVG length
ATC ‐ based on conversations with fleet man used distance from ATC to DC
Operational mileage
Ops %
Admin %
74
Used ATC length
Based on Vehicle funtion data
from vehicle inventory
from vehicle inventory
Based on Vehicle funtion data
from vehicle inventory
from vehicle inventory
Calculations
TotalMiles
OFF%
AMC
ATC
11544
0.5
23108
0.2
OFF
5772
4622
ON
5772
18486
250
250
ONDayDemand
23
74
OFFDayDemand
23
18
ON AVG length
0.07
0.44
OFF AVG L
180
180
ONTripsDay
330
168
OFF
0.13
0.10
Ops %
0.74
0.86
Admin %
0.26
0.14
ON OPS Day
244
145
ON Ad Day
86
24
OFF OPS Day
0.095
0.088
OFF Ad Day
0.03
0.01
Days
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
United States Federal Government Fleet Metrics
Fuel Type
Gasoline
2011 Vehicle Inventory by Fuel Type
2011
Diesel
85,301
Gasoline Hybrid
15,531
Diesel Hybrid
Gasoline LGHG (s
1,431
Diesel LGHG (see
69
Gasoline Plug-in H
9
5,144
E-85
169,448
3,941
Hydrogen
7
LNG
-
LPG
154
Grand Total
1%
0% 0%
Gasoline
Diesel
138
CNG
Electric
0%
378,685
659,858
Gasoline Hybrid
26%
Diesel Hybrid
Gasoline LGHG
Diesel LGHG
0% 0% 0%
Gasoline Plug‐in Hybrid
1%
2%
0%
57%
13%
CNG
E‐85
Electric
Hydrogen
LNG
75
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
United States Federal Government Fleet Metrics
2011 Vehicle Inventory Cost Breakdown
Cost Type
2011
Depreciation
$ 1,040,616,069
Maintenance
$
962,801,608
Indirect
$
252,824,284
Comm. Lease
$
72,971,037
GSA Lease
$ 1,113,145,205
Indirect
Fuel
$
Comm. Lease
Depreciation
22%
23%
999,016,185
Total $ 4,441,374,388
GSA Lease
22%
25%
6%
2%
76
Maintenance
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Fuel
Average Monthly CO2 Emissions
Average Monthly CO2 Emissions
A vehicle’s CO2 emissions are a function of its fuel type, fuel economy, and miles driven
35
30
# of Vehicles 25
20
Tech Center
15
Tech Center
• Even distribution affected by higher average vehicle mpg
• Many heavy duty vehicles have missing mileage data
Aero Center
Aero Center
• Large frequencies at ends explained by the campus dimensions and off campus demand
10
5
0
0‐.1
.11‐.2
.21‐.3
>.3
Average Monthly CO2 emissions per month (metric tons)
77
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Center Comparisons
Types of Vehicles
The vehicle functions based on assigned branch, stated use, and vehicle type
40
35
Number of Vehicles
30
25
20
Tech Center
Aero Center
15
Tech Center
• Ops – 74%
• Admin – 26%
10
5
0
Operational Vehicles
Administrative Vehicles
Aero Center
• Ops – 86%
• Admin – 14%
Vehicle Use
Calculations are based off GSA leased vehicle inventory 78
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Win‐Win Analysis
• The United States Government intends to limit petroleum use to reduce environmental effects.
• The FAA needs to continue to meet demand with a static budget while decreasing the petroleum consumption of its motor fleet. • Achieve a 12.3% reduction in CO2 emissions for campus motor fleets.
• Minimize volatile petroleum life cycle costs to more accurately predict future budgets.
• Reduced CO2 emissions from FAA campuses provides a cleaner environment for the surrounding civilian populations.
79
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research
Design
of of
a Secure
Campus
Transportation
SystemResearch
IncludingSYST
LSEVs
Department
Systems
Engineering
and Operations
490 - 2013
SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Assumptions
1.0 Passenger & Distance Assumptions
1.0.1 Any vehicle that is identified as maintenance will accommodate 1‐3 passengers
1.0.1.1 Any vehicle that is identified as maintenance in nature will travel xx ‐ yy miles
1.0.2 Any vehicle identified as administrative will accommodate 1‐5 passengers 1.0.2.1 Any vehicle that is identified as administrative in nature will travel xx ‐ yy miles
1.0.3 An LSEV will travel no further than its battery will permit without recharging.
1.0.3.1 Vehicle users will recharge vehicle at every destination
1.0.4. A vehicle will not be tasked to travel further than it can travel on one refill/charge.
80
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
Assumptions
1.3 Vehicle Maintenance
1.3.1 It will be assumed that all vehicles are well maintained and get the full (average) MPG. 1.3.1.1 It will be assumed since current vehicles are leased, major maintenance with costs exceeding $XYZ will not be incorporated into the life cycle costs
1.3.2 It will be assumed that combustion vehicles will require an oil change at least once a year (~every 3000 miles) 1.3.3 It will be assumed that LSEV batteries will be replaced every XYZ miles or XY charges 1.3.3.1 It will be assumed that the LSEV battery replacement cost will include disposal and cost YYYY. 1.3.4 It will be assumed the time spent refueling is negligible
1.3.5 It will be assumed that the vehicle will originate at the location the demand originates.
81
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
82
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration
In Summary
Rising Greenhouse Gas
Increase in Cost of Gas
Increase in Environment Concern
Executive Order
U.S. Government
U.S. Gas Dependency
83
Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research SYST 490 - 2013
Design of Motor Fleet Transportation System for the Technical And Aeronautical Centers of the Federal Aviation Administration