Interagency Portfolio & Systems
Analysis Division
NAS-WIDE Simulation Workshop
December 10, 2008
Yuri Gawdiak
Systems Modeling & Analysis Division
JPDO External Requirements
Drivers from OMB
1. Improving NextGen cost and benefit estimation ability, including the
ability to quantify the benefits and performance of various levels of
investment. The JPDO should work with the NextGen agencies to
develop a more systematic, independently-verified methodology for
validating the cost of NextGen investments.
2. Developing an analysis of alternatives for the NextGen Exh. 300 that
captures benefit-cost ratios and returns on investment, to be submitted
in time for agencies’ FY 2010 budget request to OMB in September
2008. The NextGen Exh. 300 also needs to have a designated,
qualified project manager.
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Systems Modeling & Analysis Division
Stakeholder Benefit Metrics Matrix
Goals:
Global leadership
Capacity
Safety
Environment / Noise
Environment /
Fuel Consumption
Defense
Security
Top-level
metrics
summary descriptors:
Percent of JPDO
milestones on track
Percent on-time arrivals
with traffic volume to
meet predicted demand
Percent of
improvements
evaluated for
safety
Number of people exposed
to >65 dB DNL
Fleet fuel consumed
per distance flown
Reduction in flight time
arising from flexible use
of SUA
Time passengers
spend dedicated
to security
Total ATS-related costs
per flight
Curb-to-curb travel time
Stakeholders
Stakeholder Benefit Metrics
Air Traffic
Service
Provider
Cost per unit of service
On-time performance
Reduced accident
risk
Airspace Users
Equipage costs
Global inter-operability
(metric TBD)
Number of flights
On-time performance
Reduced accident
risk
Number of passengers
Throughout capacity
Reduced accident
risk
On-time performance
Passenger total trip time
Reduced accident
risk
Airports
Fliers & Shippers
Cost of delay
DoD
Global interoperability
(metric TBD)
Communities Near
Airports
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Reduced SUA-related
delays for DoD and civil
users
Reduced fuel costs
Reduction in flight time
and delay from flexible
use of airspace
Environmental remediation
costs
Time passengers
spend in security
Reduced fuel costs
Time passengers
spend in security
Reduced accident
risk
Number of flights
Number of passengers
Reduced accident
risk
Reduced costs related to
use of SUA
Population exposed to >65
dB DNL
Reduced local
pollutant levels
2
Internal NextGen
Requirements Capabilities
Provide Effective Information Sharing Environment
Cost/Benefit Mapping
Infrastructure Standards,
Communication
Capabilities, & Cross
Cutting Services
The ability to improve information required by aviation regulation, situational awareness and enhance
decision making by managing, integrating, and flexibly delivering, relevant and reliable data and
information (e.g., advisories, signals, and alerts) on demand in a format that is accessible, secure, and
available to authorized users in a unified and coordinated environment.
Tactical, National ,Virtual Real-Time Collaboration & Planning
Strategic Global
Collaboration &
Planning
Provide Collaborative
Capacity Management
The ability to dynamically
balance forecasted airspace and
airport demand and utilization in
collaboration with enterprise
stakeholders through proactive
strategic planning and
automation (e.g. decision
support systems), using airspace
and airport design requirements,
standards and configuration
conditions, and with
consideration of other air
transportation system resources.
Provide Collaborative Flow Contingency
Management
The ability to provide optimal, synchronized, and safe strategic flow
initiatives and minimized operational impacts in collaboration with enterprise
stakeholders, through real or near real time resolutions informed by
probabilistic decision making that address large demand/capacity
imbalances within capacity management plans.
Real-time Robotic automation
& Safety Assurance
Provide Flexible Separation Management
Provide Efficient Trajectory Management
The ability to provide trajectories that minimize the frequency and
complexity of aircraft conflicts within the flow through trajectory negotiation
and adjusting individual aircraft trajectory and/or sequence when resource
contention requires.
The ability to establish and maintain safe separation
minima from other aircraft, vehicles, protected
airspace, terrain, weather, etc., predict conflicts, and
identify resolutions (e.g., course, speed, altitude,
etc.) in real time to accommodate increasing
capacity demands and traffic levels using
automation (e.g. decision support systems) while
applying reduced separation standards.
Provide Flexible Airport Facility & Surface Operations
The ability to reallocate or reconfigure the airport facility and
surface assets to maintain an acceptable level of service that will
accommodate increasing passenger and cargo demand levels,
or changes in operational requirements, through infrastructure
development, predictive analyses, automation (e.g. decision
support systems), and improvements to technology and
procedures.
Provide Integrated Regulatory & Risk Management
Infrastructure Standards,
Safety & Risk
Management Capabilities,
& Cross Cutting Services
The ability to provide appropriate, effective and scalable solutions to mitigate environmental impacts, and safety
and security risks in the air transportation system based on proactive risk identification and analysis through
improved automation, policies, procedures, and processes using established standards, requirements, and
responsibilities.
System Modeling Challenges
Systems Modeling & Analysis Division
Productivity/Inefficiencies
Safety/Security Risk
Exposure
Policy Dynamics
Collaboration Behaviors
Market/Fleet Strategies
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Complex Terminal &
Surface Operations
System-wide Technology
Effects
(Situational Awareness/Data Quality)
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Future Scenario
Challenges
Systems Modeling & Analysis Division
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Ideal
Billions of Runs
Long Term
Millions of Runs
Near Term
Thousands of Runs
Hundreds of Runs
Today
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Portfolio Sensitivity
JPDO Full Lifecycle Evaluations out to 2040
Policy Sensitivity
EA Sensitivity
Sys Arch
Fleet Mixes
Market Models
Traffic Demand
Days
0
5
Systems Modeling & Analysis Division
Summary
1. Ability to isolate benefits of individual capabilities include systemwide infrastructure type benefits
2. Identify to current system opportunity costs - missed or short falls in
collaborations in the NAS
3. Identification of current productivity levels across all components in
the system
4. Ability to incorporate and measure safety and security benefits and
constraints
5. Ability to incorporate surface, terminal, and metroplex operations
into the NAS-wide simulations
6. Ability to incorporate AOC and Airport business objectives at both
the strategic and tactical levels
7. Assess policy and strategic decision risks of the community to fund,
develop, and implement the NextGen R&D and programs
8. Ability to run sufficient number of simulations to evaluate a portfolio
of investment options
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