Innovation
in Air Transportation Systems
National Training Aircraft Symposium
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Dr. Bruce J. Holmes, NextGen Sciences, LLC; Holmes Consulting LLC
Williamsburg Virginia
March 2009
•
Stories
• The Story of Futures
• The Story of Life Cycles in Innovation
• The Story of Technology for Air Mobility
• The Story of NextGen
• The Beginning
2
The Road Here
1993-2001: NASA AGATE Alliance
2001-2006: NASA Small Aircraft
Transportation System Project
1999-2000: Office of Science and Technology
Policy, The White House
2001-2004: U.S. Joint Planning and
Development Office
2007-2008: DayJet Corporation
2009 - … : NextGen; Algae Fuels; …
3
The Story of Futures
4
Your Future in Aviation
Graduates will be mid-career in about 2030
Teach NextGen fundamentals in 2009 classes, labs, and in flight
Implement RNP procedures in practice areas, landing facilities now
A Performance-based NAS requires systemic change:
 Academics
 Flight Training
 Airspace Managers
 Airport Managers
 Business Models
 Regulation and Certification
 Science, technology, engineering
NextGen benefits:
 DOC/ROI
 Airspace
 Workloads
 Noise
 Carbon
 Time
 Fuel
•
•
•
•
•
5
Electric Scrubbing
From Futuredays by Isaac Asimov
Copyright 1986 by Lucy-Caroll Limited.
6
An Aerial Battle
From Futuredays by Isaac Asimov
Copyright 1986 by Lucy-Caroll Limited.
7
A House Rolling Through the
Countryside
From Futuredays by Isaac Asimov
Copyright 1986 by Lucy-Caroll Limited.
8
Heating with Radium
From Futuredays by Isaac Asimov
Copyright 1986 by Lucy-Caroll Limited.
9
Rules of the Game are Changing
10
Context
FACT
• Major airlines serve only a small fraction of available
airports and since 1995 have reduced service between
cities less than 250 miles apart by 41%.
FACT
• Demand for quantity and speed of travel by all modes, is
increasing with global per-capita income
FACT
• Fundraising by U.S. venture capitalists plummeted in
2008, marking lows that haven't been seen since the
industry started to recover from the dot-com bust.
FACT
• The amount of oil in the earth’s crust is finite.
11
Two Centuries of Historical Context for
Innovation in Transportation Systems
12
Meta-forces in Transportation Demand
The Story of Life Cycles
Innovation and Cost Life Cycles
(Trends follow classic “Waves” for innovations,
Hugh B. Stewart, Recollecting the Future, 1988)
The “Atomic Structure” of Business Innovation Cycles
Innovation
Growth
Maturity
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
0
Young, Urban, Professional
Leader Market
0
7
Middle-Class, Wage-Earner Older, Rural, Lower-Income
Follower Market
Die-Hard Market
14
21
28
35
(30% Reduction Per
Doubling of Volume)
100
Cost, %
Market Penetration, %
100
10
0
42
Time, Years
15
1910
GAP Engines
GPS
First VORs
DC-3
Assembly Line
Model T
1900
Jet Transports
Cumulative Intercity Transit
Market Growth
Diverted & Induced
VDL, ACR
Notional Life Cycles in
Transportation
Alternatives
For
On-Demand
Point-to-Point
Air Mobility
Jetliners Displace Props
Propliners Displace Cars
Cars Displace Trains
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
16
The Notional Life Cycle
of The Innovation Called Airline Travel
17
18
19
What’s Going On with Oil?
What does the Big S-Curve look like?
Oil Reserve Discovery Cycles
1400
Oil Discovery Cycle, 1950-1962
1200
1000
800
Cumulati ve Oil Reserves, Bbl, Bil lions
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
Oil Discovery Cycle, 1982-1993
1964
Year
Cumulative Oil Reserves, Bbl, Billions
1400
600
Oil Discover Cycle, 1960-1977
1000
400
900
800
Oil Reserves, Bbl, Billions
Cumulative Oil Reserves, Bbl, Billions
700
200
700
1200
1000
800
Series1
Poly. (Series1)
600
400
200
0
1980
600
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
Year
500
400
300
200
100
0
1958
0
1940
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
Year
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
2010
20
The Case For Algae-Derived Fuels
• Carbon Cycle
• Price Stability
• Environmental
Remediation
21
Three Successful HRJ Biojet Flight Programs* (CAAFI)
* Graphics Complement J. Holmgren, UOP
•
Feedstock:
Jatropha oil
Successful ANZ Flight Demo
Date: December 30 2008
Feedstock:
Jatropha and algal oil
• Successful CO Flight Demo
Date: Jan. 7 2009
• Successful JAL Flight Demo
Date: Jan. 30 2009
Feedstock: Camelina,
Jatropha and algal oil
Scheduled Air Service
Contraction
1000
900
800
700
Scheduled
Service
Airports
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
Based on data from the US Department of Transportation
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
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The Story of Technologies
24
Technological Underpinnings
for Mobility Alternatives
Moore’s Law
on microprocessor cost/performance
Gilder’s Law
on bandwidth performance
Metcalf’s Law
on network performance
The unwritten law
of abundance
The unwritten rule
of gridlock
Kurzweil’s Law
of Accelerating Returns
The Golden Rule
of the information age
25
Value of Networks as f(# of Nodes)2
(Metcalf’s Law)
26
AGATE and The Bandwidth Revolution
in the Cockpit
27
SATS and the Bandwidth Revolution
in the Airspace
• Multiple simultaneous operations
without Control Towers, Radar, or ATC
• Safe near-all-weather operations without ILS
• Integrated,
non-conflicting
en-route operations
28
29
The Airplanes
30
The Story of NextGen
31
Why NextGen?
•
•
•
•
•
The current aviation system does not scale to meet future needs
related to*
 Aircraft
 Airports
 Airspace
 Commerce and Business models
 Environmental considerations
 Security and safety considerations
Current airspace evolution and modernization plans do not lead
us to the changes needed beyond 2015
Transformation requires change across government agencies
The results of transformation produce new business models,
new regulatory models, and new uses of airspace, airports, and
aircraft
The outcome of transformation is to enable scalability to meet
the nation’s needs in commerce, mobility, security , and safety
*From NRC Report (2003) and the President’s Commission Final Report (2002)
32
Anticipated Growth in Airport Congestion
2025
U.S. Joint Planning and Development Office
33
Implementation Domains in Florida
National NextGen Test Bed
Secondary (DayPort)
Solutions
•
 Design routes for most
efficient altitudes, shortest
routes and passing capabilities
for reduced fuel and carbon
Metroplex Solutions
•
Tertiary (DayStop) Solutions
•
 Eliminate procedural separation for
increased access and capacity at
smaller community airports for
economic benefits
 De-couple departures and
arrivals at hubs and small
airports for increased capacity
and road congestion relief
34
Airborne Infrastructure
Enabling Capabilities
NextGen Avionics
• Performance-Based Navigation
• ADS-B Out / In
• Graphical Traffic
• Graphical Weather
• Graphical Terrain
• Electronic Flight Bag
• Iridium Comm
• Communication via IP
• FOQA-MOQA
• Machine vision
… and more in the future
35
Airports and Airspace Infrastructure
Enabling Capabilities
NextGen Airports and Airspace
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
State Aviation System & Airport Master Planning
for NextGen
Tailored flight paths
ADS-B everywhere
Precision minimums
RVR
Remote Tower Services
DataComm linkage
SWIM integration
… and more in the future
36
Reference Business Trajectory
RBT (Flight Plan) is a continuous RNAV/RNP trajectory
representing best DOC/Fuel Burn/ROI
for company fleet operations
CTA - Contracted Time of Arrival
37
Real-Time
Trajectory Management
Air Traffic Ops
FAA Traffic and Flow
Management Tools
4. Clearance
Request
5. RBT
AS CLEARED
1. (Flight Plan)
Reference Business Trajectory
RBT AS FILED*
2. RBT
AS AUTHORIZED
3. RBT
AS AUTHORIZED
Routing Manager
Aircraft/Fleet
Fleet Optimization Tool
IP Fleet
Communication*
Fleet Tracking
ADS-B
EFB or FMS
IP Communications*
* For example via AOC,
Iridium+AMS-UpTime, or
AirCell, etc.
6. Trajectory
AS FLOWN
Via ADS-B
Location of trajectory calculations may be
initially ground-based, with longer-term
potential for migration to distributed locations
(e.g. cloud computing)
38
Outcomes
“Fully cooperative NextGen solutions” (FAA-MOA)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Safety and Workload Benefits
Shorter Routes
Quieter Terminal Procedures
Reduced Fuel Consumption
Reduced Emissions
Optimized Fleet Performance
Accurate, Rapid Flight Planning
Decoupled Metroplex Airports, Increased Capacities
NextGen educational curriculum
Business Cases (Federal, Industrial, State, Local)
These outcomes provide a template
for accelerated national implementation
of performance-based airspace systems.
39
Recommended Reading
• Christiansen, Clayton: The Innovators Dilemma,
HBS Press
• Theodore Modis: Conquering Uncertainty
• Barabasi, Laszlo: Linked
• Anderson, Chris: The Long Tail
• Schwartz, John: BoomTown
• Schaeffer and Victor: Transportation
Demand Trends. Sci. Amer. Oct 1997
special issue on transportation
• Kurzweil, Ray: 2029, The Singularity
• George Gilder: Telecosm
• Nassim Taleb: Black Swan
40
The Path From Here
Life after:
Airways
Radar
ATC
Petroleum
Airlines
Highways
Bandwidth
(but that’s another story)
41
From 20th Century Wheels on America
to 21st Century Wings on America
Thank You!
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