Illinois Farm Bureau, IL
06-05-07
Taylor: Above-Average Corn Yield Forecast
Iowa State University climatologist Elwynn Taylor says the most likely (50/50
chance) U.S. corn yield for 2007 is 154 bushels per acre (BPA), based on June 1
conditions.
He says the chance of a record high yield (above 163 BPA) is 30% and the
chance of drought (below 133 BPA) is 20%. The chance of exceeding the trend
(148.4 BPA) is 59%.
Taylor says the estimate considers the above-average subsoil moisture in much
of the Corn Belt, a statistical risk of widespread drought, the shift from El Nino
toward neutral, and sea surface temperatures in the central and North Pacific
and in the Gulf of Mexico.
He says the late May crop reports indicate that corn condition exceeds that of the
past few years.