Spring Grove Herald
12-11-07
PUBLISHER'S NOTEBOOK: Weather is tough to predict; but climate even is
tougher
By David Phillips
December has hit us with good old-fashioned winter weather, something we
haven't been used to in the past decade or so. The seemingly constant snowfalls
and below normal cold has made for a lot of shoveling, treacherous travel and
much shivering.
The early winter is closer to normal than the near-tropical weather we have
enjoyed in several of the past few years. Some may wonder if it means global
warming is real.
You have to remember that there is a difference between weather and climate.
Weather is short-lived. We may yet get a warm spell this winter. Even if we don't,
the winter in Minnesota is only a tiny factor in the overall climatic shift the earth is
experiencing.
Global warming is a debate that will continue, no matter what the weather brings.
Of more concern to us, since our economy is still driven by agriculture, an
industry that is going through shifts as massive as global warming, is a recent
report that the Midwest could be headed for a major drought next summer.
Elwynn Taylor, an Iowa State University Extension climatologist, has
identified three indicators that point to the possibility of a drought in the Midwest
that will affect corn production.
One indicator is the La Nina weather pattern that is building in the Pacific
Ocean's equatorial region. Taylor told www.BEEFmagazine, com, an online
agricultural publication, this indicates a 70 percent chance that corn will yield
below trend in the U.S. Corn Belt.
Taylor also points out that the average time span between major droughts in the
Midwest is 19 years and the last one was in 1988 - 19 years ago.
Another indicator is the ongoing drought in South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama
and North Carolina. Of the 17 major droughts that have occurred in the Midwest
in the past 100 years, 16 were preceded by a major drought in the Southeast.
Even more ominous, says Taylor, is that all three indicators will converge ahead
of next year's corn crop.
Of course, as with all scientific projecting, which is always based on probability,
never certainty, there is a disclaimer. "We have no scientific evidence to think
that all three factors will gang up on us next year to create a major drought, but
these are certainly all factors that will put people on edge," Taylor told the online
publication.
The good news is that soil moisture is ample in most places. If the start of winter
is any indication, perhaps the snow melt will add to the supplies. Taylor does see
a hotter than normal summer on the horizon, so the question will be how long the
reserves last if drought does, in fact, occur.
Global warming gets a lot of attention because, well, it is a global issue, but a
major drought in the Midwest would be traumatic to our economy - and cause a
ripple effect worldwide since the United States is a major provider of food.
With the good weather and increasing yields over the past dozen years or so, we
may have grown to expect ever improving crops. However, history does show
some intermittent stints of highly variable corn yields over the past century and
more.
Weather is tough to predict, even short-term, as many of you have found out
after making plans based on reports only to run into the complete opposite of
what was forecast. Climate is even tougher to predict since it has to be based on
long-term models and historical trends.
The ramifications are more significant than sore backs from shoveling or ruined
plans for a picnic. That's why our country's farm plans, which include the farm bill
now being debated in Congress, need to have contingencies built in for possible
climatic shifts - short-term and long-term. The hope is that we never have to use
them, but being prepared for something as unpredictable as the weather, and to
a certain extent, climate, just makes good sense.