MARKET ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SITE AT
WACHUSETT MOUNTAIN IN PRINCETON, MASSACHUSETTS
by
MARY LOUISE BOUTWELL
Bachelor of Arts
Williams College
(1974)
SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF ARCHITECTURE
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF
THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT
at the
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
July 1987
(Mary
Louise Boutwell
The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to
distribute copies of this thesis document in whole or in part.
Signature of Author.. a... aaaaak-I
Mary Louise Boutwell
of Architecture
July 31, 1987
Department
Certified by ............r.
Marc Andrew Louargand
V 'siting Associate Professor
Department
Accepted
of Urban Studies
Thesis Supervisor
by...............................-.-..-.....-..
Michael Wheeler
Chairman
Interdepartmental
Degree Program in
Real Estate Development
4t"SACt.s"
MSOF --
M
INTITUTE
JUL 2 9 1981
LIBRARIES
Rlotch
Market Analysis of Residential Development Site at Wachusett
Mountain in Princeton, Massachusetts
by
Mary Louise Boutwell
Submitted to the Department of Architecture on July 31, 1987,
in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of
Master of Science in Real Estate Development
ABSTRACT
This thesis analyzes the local and regional market support
for a recreationally-oriented primary home development in
central Massachusetts. Wachusett Mountain Associates, a
limited partnership owned by a family in Worcester,
Massachusetts, currently operates a ski resort on Mt.
Wachusett in Princeton and Westminster, Massachusetts through
a leasehold interest in 450 acres of land from the State
The ski resort was
Department of Environmental Management.
the fifth
most popular facility in New England at the
Over the last five
completion of the 1986-1987 ski season.
years, Worcester County has participated in the strong
economic growth and rapid escalation in real estate values
Lots
that the entire State of Massachusetts has experienced.
in Princeton which sold for $15,000 per acre in 1982 now sell
for as high as $79,000 per acre. During 1986 Wachusett
Mountain Associates began purchasing land adjacent to Mt.
Wachusett in Princeton and Westminster with the idea of
creating a large-scale primary home residential development.
The scope of this market study includes an analysis of
the demand and supply of residential development in the market
The study defines the market area,
area of Mt. Wachusett.
examines existing population and employment data, evaluates
population and employment trends and current residential
development activity. The thesis addresses the following
questions: How big is the market? What segment of the market
is likely to constitute the largest portion of future demand?
How fast can
How much new construction can the market absorb?
the market absorb new product? What percent of the market
does the potential development in Princeton/Westminster
The analysis concludes with a preliminary
represent?
indication of the viability of the proposed development
concept and recommendations on additional steps that should be
taken in order to assess the feasibility, timing and potential
of the project.
Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Marc Andrew Louargand
Titles Visiting Associate Professor of Urban Studies
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to acknowledge the following
people for
their contributions to this thesis:
First,
Ralph D. Crowley, Jr., President, and Joseph
O'Brien, General Manager of Wachusett Mountain, for
giving me the opportunity to undertake this
market study
as the subject of my thesis;
Second, Dr. Marc A. Louargand, for his guidance,
support, sense of humor and commitment of time to the
thesis;
production of this
Third, William A. Swiacki, Jr., for his collaboration
in the collection and analysis of data for this
study
and his help and friendship throughout the production;
Fourth, Douglas Tannatt and Bruce Eidelson, fellow
members of my class and my thesis working group, for
their
ideas, assistance, and encouragement all
along the
way;
Fifth, and most importantly, Stephen and Robert
Boutwell, my husband and son, for their
endless help,
patience and loyalty.
Without them, I never would have
started or finished this
endeavor.
--
-
aEk-
t M eAN.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Chapter
I.
II.
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY .....................
8
Background
......................... .. 8
(A)
(B)
Scope of Study .....................
9
(C)
Assumptions .........................
10
(D)
Limiting Conditions ................
11
(E)
Execut ive Summary ..................
..
12
SITE AND LOCATION FACTORS .....................
(A)
Property Description ...............
(B)
Preliminary Development Plan .......
(C)
Zoning Considerations ..............
(D)
Development
Concept
Notes to Chapter
III.
II
14
14
17
21
................
22
................
24
MARKET AREA AND METHODOLOGY ...................
(A)
Methodology, Sources and
Organization
(B)
Market Area ........................
Notes to Chapter III
...............
25
HOUSING DEMAND ................................
(A)
Regional Employment Trends .........
(B)
Population Trends ..................
(C)
Conclusions.
........................
Notes to Chapter IV ................
35
35
46
70
73
HOUSING SUPPLY ...............
...................
(A)
Existing Housing Stock..............
(B)
Recent Sales Activity ..............
(C)
Competitive Residential
Developments ..................
(D)
Conclusions ........................
75
75
78
VI.
COMPOSITION OF FUTURE DEMAND ..................
(A)
Market Segments ....................
(B)
Affordable Housing .................
(C)
Conclusions ........................
Notes to Chapter VI ................
93
93
97
99
102
VII.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...............
(A)
Coneclusions ........................
(B)
Recommendat ions ....................
Notes to Chapter VII ...............
103
103
106
112
VIII.
BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................
113
IV.
V.
25..................
28
34
87
90
APPENDICES:
(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)
IX.
(E)
(F)
(G)
Sales
(H)
(I)
116
of Major Regional Employers
List
Log of Travel Times ................
Market Area Towns ........---------Employmert Gro:wth by Town in
Market Areas ..................
Building Permits by Town ......
of Average
County Review List
.................
Town
by
Sales
Average
Service
Listing
Multiple
by
Town
122
124
126
128
.........
1986
in
120
Multiple Listing Service New
Construction Sales in 1987 ....
Inventory of Residential
Developments
in
Market
Area
...
130
134
LIST OF FIGURES
Page
Figure
1.
2.
3.
Photograph of Base Lodge at Wachusett
Mountain Ski Area .......................
4
Map of Massachusetts - Locat ion of
Wachusett Mountain .....................--
15
Locat ion of Wachusett Mountain Associates
...........................
Land Holdings
18
Primary
and Secondary Market
4.
Map of
5.
Graph
of
6.
Graph
of Age Distribution ....................
7.
Graph
of
8.
Price Terrain Map
Employment
Breakdown
by
Industry
Income Distribution .................
............................
Areas
....
29
....
42
53
61
83
LIST OF TABLES
Page
Table
1.
2.
3.
Wachusett Mountain Associates Land
Holdings ................................
Preliminary Development Plans .................
Montachusett Regional Planning Commission
Data on
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Inmigration
and Product
Type
17
20
....
Winchendon Homebuyers Survey ..................
Summary of Employment Growth, Average Wages
and Number of Establishments ............
Number of Establishments By Employee-Size
Type ....................................
Average Annual Employment By Industry
Division 1980-1985 Worcester SMA ........
Employment By Industry 1986-1987 Worcester,
Fitch burg /Leominst er, Bost on SMA' s ......
Population Trends
1970-1985 ..................
Populat ion, Households and Housing Units,
1970-1980 ...............................
Age Distribution of Population ................
Population Projections ........................
Income Distribution ................................
Median Household Income in Primary Market ......
Income Requirement Under Varying Interest
Rate Assumptions
........................
Pro.jected Housing Demand
1980-1991 ...........
Distribution
of Dwelling Units By Type ........
Residential Sales - Northern Worcester County..
Residential Market - Average Price
Comparisons in Market Area ..............
Average Sales Prices of Residential Units
1986 ....................................
36
38
41
44
47
49
52
57
60
63
65
67
76
80
84
85
I.
(A)
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
Background
Wachusett
Mountain Associates
owned by the Ralph D.
Crowley,
Massachusetts and Joseph P.
Mountain,
resort
Department
Sr.
Wachusett
in
interest
in
a
0'Brien,
Manager of Wachusett
Princeton,
and cross-country ski
Massachusetts through a
450 acres of land from
of Environmental
partnership
limited
family of Worcester,
currently operates a downhill
on Mt.
leasehold
(WMA),
the State
The ski resort
Management.
was
the fifth most popular facility in New England at the
completion of the
1986-1987 ski
Over the last
operation by WMA.
has participated
in
season,
five
the fifth
years,
year of
Worcester County
the strong economy and rapid escalation in
real estate values that the entire State of Massachusetts has
experienced.
Lots in Princeton which sold for $15,000 per
acre in 1982 now sell
for as high as $79,000 per acre.
During
1986 Wachusett Mountain Associates began purchasing land
adjacent to Mt.
Wachusett
in
Princeton and Westminster,
MA,
with the idea of creating a large-scale residential
development.
During the spring of 1987 WMA commissioned a planning firm
to prepare a master plan for the development.
was not
The master plan
based on a market study and WMA recognized the need
for a detailed market
analysis before proceeding any further
with
its
plans.
In
early June 1987 WMA granted
the author
permission to undertake such an analysis as the subject of
this
(B)
thesis.
Scope of Study
The scope of this
study includes an analysis of the
market
demand and supply of residential development
area of Mt.
population and employment
population and employment
How big
following questions:
the market
is
future demand?
absorb?
is
evaluates
and planned
the market?
What segment
largest
portion of
absorb new product?
percent of the market
does the potential development
Princeton/Westminster
represent?
timing and
potential of the project.
area.
This study focuses on
for primary home development.
study does not consider the potential
the market
on additional steps
order to assess the feasibility,
the potential of the market
homes in
in
of the proposed
and recommendations
that should be taken in
What
The analysis concludes with
indication of the viability
development concept
of
new construction can the market
How much
How fast can the market
a preliminary
area,
The study addresses the
to constitute the
likely
data,
trends and both current
development activity.
residential
the market
The study defines the market
Wachusett.
examines existing
in
The
for second or vacation
(C)
Assumpt ions
upon in
Certain assumt ions were relied
They include the
this report.
1.
following:
Much of the analysis is based on written and verbal
information supplied by others.
is
information
growth
of
expressed or implied herein.
completed during a period of
This analysis is
moderate
but no
to the accuracy or reliability
relating
guarantee
such
An attempt was made to
information wherever possible,
this
verify
R.
preparat ion of
the
in
economies.
the local and regional
The ability to sell the proposed housing units will
depend on the state of the
local
economy and the
financial market at the time the product reaches the
market.
Although an attempt
general economic growth
was made to project future
in the region, the effects of a
recession, and major layoffs or expansions of individual
No attempt
firms could alter the outlook significantly.
was made to survey individual firms about their
employment
needs.
In addition, it
future
is impossible to
measure the full impact of a continued labor shortage on
the regional
3.
All
economy and the proposed development.
information concerning the site
condition and
location of the land parcels owned or available for
acquisition by Wachusett Mountain Associates was
obtained from the Wallace Roberts & Todd
Development Concepts" study of March
"Preliminary
1987.
No attempt
the actual condition of the site;
was made to verify
it
however,
normal
(D)
assumed herein that
is
can support
the site
development.
Limiting Conditions
The
use and application of this
study are
following
conditions.
report
any manner constitutes agreement
cond it
1.
in
possession,
by the
or use of this
to the following
i ors:
Any photographs,
are for
maps or drawings contained herein
the purpose of visualization
accuracy can not
2.
Acceptance,
limited
The results
be relied upon for
cover all
in
any other purpose.
projects in
the analysis.
This list
residential projects
conclusions about demand,
drawn
and their
of a survey and inventory of selected
competitive residential
included
only,
from this
survey.
in
the market
is
is
intended to
not
the market.
Several
buyers and absorption are
Although
the sample was
constructed to be a representative sample,
possible that
area
it
is
the inclusion or omission of one or more
developments could alter
the conclusions.
(E)
Execut ive Summary
The major
findings regarding
for the subject
1.
the market
potential
property are as follows:
growth
Over the 1980-1985 period,
in
wages and number of establishments was strong
primary and secondary markets.
slow down
from
Employment
growth
an average
rate
average
employment,
of
is
in
both the
expected to
over
to 2.7%
3.3%
the next 3-4 years.
2.
Although
market
over 1970-1985,
more than 22%.
and drop
in
population increased only slightly
in
the demand
for housing
units grew
in
households
This was due to the growth
average household size.
population will
is
It
projected
that
grow moderately and household size will
continue to decline between now and 1990.
3.
the primary
Absorption
housing
units should range from 2700 to 3200 per year.
By 1991
the 35-44 age group will
be the
of
largest segment
of
the population and the percentage of higher earning
households will
increase, but the median household will
only be able to afford a $100,000 house in
1991,
based on
projected wage and salary income.
4.
Average sale prices for all
single family houses
primary market were $124,000-$144,000
have averaged $215,000
1987.
in
12
in 1986.
in the
New units
Condominium prices
averaged $81,000-$87,.1000 in
for
5.
$114,000 on average
1987.
The average secondary
market
prices are 40%-90% higher.
Demand
is
strongest
the overall
ones.
Move-up buyers in
constitute
in
a submarket
near
the 35-44 age group and young
the 25-34 age segment
the strongest demand.
projects
It
but
condominium sales are higher than single family
professionals in
sell
for 3-4 bedroom single family units in
primary market,
Wachusett,
6.
in
1986 and new units have sold
is
60-80
are
likely
to
of condominium
Absorption
units a year and single family projects
32-33 units.
is
recommended
that the proposed development
the following unit mix:
family -
30%;
condominiums -
larger, detached
7. WMA might consider acting as a
40%;
incorporate
single
cluster
single family houses -
30%.
land developer rather
than a builder for some portion of the project.
8.
Depending on the amenity and
three preliminary development
Inc.
appear feasible.
annual
scenarios submitted
schedule is
less than 4%
a total
followed,
by WRT,
The project should be phased
increments of 60-80 condominiums
family units,
the
infrastructure costs,
and 25-30 single
of 85-110 dwellings.
the three plans will
in
If
all
of the projected total absorption.
this
phasing
represent
II.
(A)
SITE AND LOCATION FACTORS
Propert y Descr i pt i on
Wachusett
state-owned
land
the central
in
Princeton and Westminster.
Boston;
is
Mountain Ski Area
located on 450 acres of
Massachusetts towns of
The mountain
22 miles north of Worcester;
61 miles northwest
Providence and 86 miles from Hartford.
and Western
The resort
Massachusetts,
a major north-south
Route 495,
connector to Worcester.
the highest
peak in
central Massachusetts with an elevation of
feet and the dominant feature of the
2,006
Wachusett
for high tech
The mountain is
25 miles from the ski area.
is
two
and 8 miles from Route 190,
Boston's outer beltway and a developing corridor
employment,
is
of
one of two major east-west roads between
miles from Route 2,
Boston
52 miles west of
is
Mountain State Reservation.
1,955 acre
Figure 2
is
a map of
Massachusetts which shows the location of Wachusett Mountain.
of skiing on Mt.
The history
1933,
installed
facility
when skiers drove to the top and skied down.
two T-bars in
1968.'
until
At
1961
facility
The ski
in
winning a
ski
lease commitment
WMA invested $9,000,000 in
from the state.
opened a new
and operated a limited
The state
that time the principals of Wachusett
Mountain Associates succeeded
1982.
dates back to
Wachusett
improvements
under private operation
area now includes
17 downhill
and
in December
trails with an
FIGURE 2
LOCATION OF WACHUSETT MOUNTAIN SITE
9
WACHUSETT
Is
PitsW
i
95
n
BOSTON
WORCESTER
7
90
1464)
,6
86
RIPROVIDENCE
Springfield
.,1--.
HARTFOR D
91
Prvdec
61
3
ile
New London
5-New Haven
Worcester - 22 miles
Boston - 52 miles
Providence - 61 miles
Hertford - 86 miles
15
rv~ct
!7
The
cross-country trails.
which encompass
and 12 miles of
three chairlifts
1000 feet,
elevation of
base
lodge has 27,000 square feet
large opers cafeteria/dining
a
ski rental
sports retailer,
office,
restrooms and administrative
cars and eight
snowmaking
from
buses.
fall
from 9am to 10pm.
operating a restaurant
660
in
The slopes are
The facility
the spring,
open
is
summer
and
seasons.
Most skiers at
Mt.
from Connecticut,
travel
Island.
most
is
100% of the slopes and uses waste heat
the snowmaking to heat the building.
year-round,
capacity
has computerized
The facility
equipment or
lighted and open daily
The restaurant
offices.
accomodates 600 people and the parking lot
cocktail
sales
ticket
office,
lounge,
a
area,
Vermont
Eastern
Massachusetts or Rhode
During the 1986-1987 season,
popular ski
of skier
return home the same day and
Wachusett
days,
resort
in
was the fifth
New England measured on the basis
behind Killington,
and Loon in
Wachusett
Stratton and Mt.
New Hampshire.
Wachusett
Snow
in
had 325,000
skier days over 135 operating days with 2 sessions per day.
Average attendance was 2,407 per day or
There were 5,800 people at Wachusett
the past season.
16
1,204 per session.
on the record day during
(B)
Preliminary
Development Plan
Over the
few years Wachusett
last
acquired 304 acres in
Massachusetts.
acres in
the towns of Westminster and Princeton,
The partners have also identified
Westminster
parcels which are
another 325
and Princeton adjacent to the existing
potentially
Table
development.
Mountain Associates has
available for
residential
1 summarizes these holdings:
TABLE 1
Wachusett Mountain Associates Land
Owned
WMA
Princeton
Westminister
by
Pot ent ia 1
Total
45
147
192
259
178
437
304
325
629
Total
SOURCE:
"Wachusett Mountain WRT,
Inc.,
Development Plan", March 1987.
The Princeton parcel
already owned by WMA is
two parcels.
Wachusett,
The first
Road.
Figure 3 is
Westminster
parcel of
is
bordered
across
property is
186 acres borders on Lake
the City of Fitchburg's reservoir.
property of 73 acres
directly
The Westminster
Mountain Road from the ski area.
in
Preliminary
The second
by Bolton Road and Mile Hill
a topographical
map of Princeton and
which shows the location of both the existing
FIGURE 3
_
OF WMA LAND HOLDINGS
LOCATION
4ph
o 4 0o0
it
-Io5
/
~~~-dZ:lo
2
K
,VI~
7,
§
A
B
A j
18
OWNED BY WMA
AVAILABLE TO WMA
SKI AREA
Wachusett Mountain ski area and
land holdings.
Based
preliminary slope and wetland analysis contained
on the
March
the WMA
1987 Master Plan by Wallace Roberts & Todd,
land only 229.2 acres are suitable.
a total
of 324 acres out
the
only 94.8
acres of the existing WMA holdings car, be developed.
potential
in
Of the
Therefore, only
of the 629 owned or available for
acquisit ion in
Princeton and Westminster have slopes less than
15% and do riot
include wetland areas based on U.S.G.S.
The Wallace,
identified
Roberts & Todd report
three possible development
properties.
Under the first
the existing
land already owned
into 146
units and a 50-room hotel.
96 "cluster
units.
single family"
option,
in
of March
maps.
1987
scenarios for the WMA
WMA would develop only
Princeton and Westminster
The housing would
include
units and 50 attached townhouse
The second scheme entails
the purchase of all
the
potentially
available land outlined
development
of a 100-room hotel and 70 "estate single family",
141
"cluster
a total
single family"
of 473 units.
acquisition
of more
in
Table 1 and the
and 262 attached townhouse
The third
plan envisions the
land for an eighteen hole golf
construct ion of a 250-room conference hotel
residential
sports.
units,
alternative the residential
would consist of 110 estate single family,
family and 740 attached townhouse units.
three different
plans:
course,
and a total
and the use of Lake Wachusett
Under the third
units,
the
of 985
for water
component
135 cluster single
Table 2 outlines the
TABLE 2
Preliminary Development Plans
Wachusett Mountain Site
Estate Single Family
Single Family
Cluster
Attached Townhouse
Total
Hotel
Plan 2
70
141
262
Plan 3
110
135
740
146
50
473
100
985
250
residential
Rooms
SOURCE:
"Wachusett Mountain Inc.,
WRT,
Development Plan", March 1987.
WMA does have several
developing the
of Fitchburg
advantages
land holdings near Mt.
facility was built
it
Plan 1
96
50
The existing
sewer and water.
a
Lake Wachusett.
need
the
for
In
and
gave
line has a
on
Westminster has town
in
Westminster
which
borders
might reduce the City of Fitchburg's
Lake Wachusett
reservoir.
WMA generates
addition,
towns of Princeton and Westminster
Massachusetts.
system
This may enable WMA to develop a groundwater
which
supply facility
When the ski
WMA has recently discovered the existence of
on the parcel
aquifer
large
wells now.
private
and
The Town of Princeton is
capacity of 250,000 tons per day.
systems and
approval
Wachusett.
wastewater collection
municipal
to the Town of Westminster.
septic
gaining
a sewer line to the City
1982, WMA built
in
in
Preliminary
Last
substantial
lodge to
20
for the
and the state of
year WMA paid $24,000 in
property tax on the base
revenue
Westminster
personal
and $1,800 in
real
estate taxes to Princeton.
lease from
The ski
the state until
area pays 2% of
($250,000 in
(C)Zoninq
2012 with three
in
The Mountain
the area.
the winter season and
Wachusett
120 in
is
in
Princeton
Residential-Agricultural
is
employed
87,120 square feet
front
year.3
designation.
a low density
As of May
minimum
lot
setback must exceed 50 feet.
is
Height
for existing units.
that
this
amendment
1987
all
should not
The town allows subdivisions without
any problem.
approval
if
every
lot
hotels and motels.
uses in
pose
Planning
has frontage on a public way.
allow any clustering of residential
the town amended
The
development.
the RA zones by prohibiting
Since WMA already owned the Princeton
parcels at the time the amendment
hotel there
May
Since the Princton parcels are ad.jacent to the
and have steep slopes,
bylaws don't
In
must have one acre free of wetlands and flood
lots
hazard areas.
mountain
limited to
for new
stipulating
Princeton also passed an amendment
two-acre
the Town is
Frontage must span 225 feet
or 2 acres.
construction and 10 feet
1987 when new
size in
35 feet and side and rear setbacks are 30 feet
Finally,
450 people
the off-season last
zoned RA,
zoning amendments were passed,
Board
also a
Considerations
The land
and
10-year renewals.
gross revenue to the state as rent
1986-1987 season).
sizeable employer
during
WMA also holds a 30 year
passed,
they can build a
provided they are granted a special
permit during
the next
three years.
Westminster does allow clustering in
foot
lots
lots
is
where 50 forot
frontage is
than 90% of number
less
10,000-15,000 square
followed and the number of
derived from dividing the
land area by the minimum size otherwise
total
parcels are
Westminster
RIII
areas.
in
RIII
zones,
or RI
lots
and 200
permits 30,000 square foot
lots
with
RI
frontage.
Height
held to 20% in
is
both
limited to 35 feet
lot
foot
125 foot
coverage is
zones.
The three alternative development
entail
and
The
both residential
86,000 square foot
requires
frontage.
above all
permitted.
the approval
schemes summarized
of subdivision plans,
zoning
variances or special permits.
(D)Development
Concept
Although
the Wallace,
portion of second homes,
Roberts & Todd study does include a
the development
plans outlined above
all
center on various types and densities of primary homes.
WMA
is
interested
residential
po i nt.
in
the concept
of a recreationally-oriented
community with Wachusett
The expectation is
that
Mountain as the focal
consumers will
to be located next to a year-round recreational
hiking,
skiing,
days a week.
In
tennis,
pay a premium
area where
golf and watersports are available 7
addition WMA hopes to capitalize
of the Mountain and Lake Wachusett.
The three options
consider the addition of water sports,
22
on the views
tennis courts,
a golf
course,
and horseback riding
primary
home ski
resort
30-60 minute commute
facilities.
communities in
There are no other
New England within a
of major employment
23
centers.
Notes to Chapter
'Urban Land Institute,
Mountain Ski Area",
II
Project Reference File,
October-December 1984.
"Wachusett
"Wachusett Mountain - Preliminary Development
'WRT, Inc.
All information concerning land
Concepts", March 1987.
source.
conditions is from this
holdings and site
factual information concerning the financial
or operations of Wachusett Mountain came
condition
conversations with Joe O'Brien, Manager of WMA.
2Al1
from
MARKET AREA AND METHODOLOGY
CHAPTER III.
(A)
Sources
Methodolopgy,
and
This residential
employment,
regional
Organizat ion
market
study
is
demographic and housing trends occurring
market
area over the period
forecasts of these variables through
principal
based on a review of
in
the
1980 to 1985 and
1991.
An outline
of the
sections and sources follows:
1)
Housing Demand
a)
Employment
This section begins with an analysis of regional
employment
trends.
1980-1985 and
considered.
U.S.
trends are examined from
Historical
projections for
1986,
1990 and 1991
The primary sources for this
Department
of Commerce,
local chambers of commerce,
Division of Employment
data were the
Bureau of the Census,
the State of Massachusetts
Security,
the Central
Massachusetts Regional Planning Commission
Montachusett
Regional Planning Commission
the Metropolitan
Worcester
b)
are
Area Planning Commission
the
(CMPRC),
(MRPC),
(MAPC)
and
and the
Office of Planning and Community Development.
Socioeconomic Characteristics
This section reviews population growth,
distribution,
income growth,
between 1970 and 1985.
age
and household
formation
Projections of these factors are
examined
for
1986,
1990 and 1991.
consisted of the U.S.
the Census reports,
Sources
Department
of Commerce,
Inc.,
Economic
Research
Massachusetts and
(MISER)
data
Bureau of
by Urban Decision
data provided
the Massachusetts Center
Systems,
for this
for
Social and
at the University of
local town records.
Supply
2)
Housing
a)
Existing Housing
Stock
This sect ion assesses exist ing and projected demand for
housing
in
the primary and secondary market
areas.
The
age and composition of the existing housing stock is
examined
using
1980 U.S.
Census data.
Residential
permit activity from 1980-1986 is reviewed to gauge the
volume of new construction during the period.
The
historical turnover and absorption rates are examined
and a projection made about
future absorption.
Data on
permits was obtained from the Worcester Office of
Planning and Community Development,
CMRPC,
and the
Massachusetts Municipal Data Bureau within the
Department
b)
of Revenue.
Recent Sales Activity
This section examines the volume,
of housing sales in
1986 and 1987.
average price and type
The differences
between the two market areas are reviewed and analyzed.
Finally, this part includes a selective survey of
existing and planned residential developments in the
market area.
Data on recent sales was obtained from the
26
Banker and Tradesman,
the Bureau of the Census,
Greater Worcester Real Estate Board,
Worcester County Real
Estate Board
at
Development
and current
brokers
in
and the Middlesex
for Economic
The
the University of Massachusetts.
sources of information for
with
the Northern
and the Center
Real Estate Board
County
the
listings
the market
the survey
provided
include interviews
by real
estate
area and direct observations from
site visits.
3)
Composit ion of Housing Demand
This sect ion ident ifies
residential
and defines potent ial
units based on the earlier
demand and supply
in
the market
buyers of
analysis of
area.
What
types of
units do they desire and with what amenities?
Given the
income characteristics of the population identified in
an earlier section,
what segment(s)
constitute the greatest demand?
"affordable"
economic or
component
political
there a need for an
for the Wachusett
reasons?
determinants of locational
This section relies
Is
of the market will
What
project for
are the key
choice for each user group?
on interviews with
local
brokers,
developers and residents of competitive developments.
Research reports from the Urban Land Institute,
real estate periodicals and special
U.S.
Census were also consulted.
27
various
reports from the
(B)
Market
Area
The
area for housing developed on the WMA
primary market
land encompasses 39 towns
towns
in
in
northern Worcester
eastern Middlesex County.
developed
by first
Worcester;
Route
495
-
Shrewsbury;
There are five
Fitch burg /Leom inst
2)
Littleton;
4)
Northboro;
and 5)
Southern
derived by compiling a list
identifying
made to determine
category:
3)
Route
Westboro;
Framingham.
This
list
the employment
both travel times
to the 1980 U.S.
approximately 20 minutes
However a special
Journey to Work
Northern
These centers were
is
included as
centers,
in
outside central
Much of the primary
the Boston,
Workers with
to
Census mean travel time to work
for most
communities
the United States:1979",
cities,
site
the market.
study by the Census Bureau
in
an attempt was
from the proposed
in
"The
reported
In
is
the market.'
entitled
time nationwide was 22.5 minutes.
mean travel
travel
this
er/Gardner;
the centers and willingness to commute
towns in
centers
A to the study.
After
According
area was
in
495 -
10
of major employers by location
within 30 miles of the site.
Appendix
This market
identifying the major employment
within 30 miles of the site.
1)
County and
that the
SMSA's
employees travelled 24.2 minutes.
and secondary market
area
is
composed of
Worcester or Fitchburg-Leominster
SMA's.
family income of $25,000-$74,999 were reported to
24.7 minutes on average with 25% traveling 30 minutes
28
FIGURE 4
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MARKET AREA
..
A-o.
c'
...
\--
-?
-
-
.
.9
*
),
..........----
o-
I
04
O .
w
-
-
..
J
-
c...
d
e
----
r
-
WACHUSETT
..-.
-
~--
MOUNTAIN
--
-i"PRIMARYA
SSECONDARY
---
--.--
EMPLOYMENT
,---
-
--
.a..
-
e
---
-C
-7 O4-"
.-
MARKET
.-
.
.,
-
>
CENTE RS*
U
d
I
C6
.......-ILM
The
or more.
market
primary
imate of average fami ly
1986 est
patterns since the
minutes because of the drop
in
in
found on commuting
1979 Census.
average commut ing t ime has
increase
up from $23, 129
area was $42, 407,
detailed studies were
additional
income
is
It
estimated
in
the
1980.'
No
time or
that the
lengthened since 1980 to 30 or 45
in
family income in
prices and the
gasoline
the market
areas.
This
assumpt ion was also supported by discussions with real estate
brokers
in
the market
area on buyers'
willingness to commute.
commuting
routes,
minute commute
it
place of work and the
Based on actual
appears that
driving of the major
20 miles equates to a 30-45
from the proposed development site.
Routes 190
and 290 were also completed since the 1980 census.
A detailed
log was compiled for the commutte
from Wachusett
in
included as Appendix
Littleton.
The log,
which
is
to Route 495
B,
shows
that the cumulative mileage and time elapsed to Littleton
are
23.8 miles and 29 minutes 30 seconds at an average speed of 46
mph.
cities
The primary market
which
fall
area is
defined generally as towns or
within 20 miles of Wachusett
also within 20 miles of one of the five
centers identified
were omitted
and
if
above.
Mountain and
major employment
' Some towns which fell
the commute appeared
some.towns outsi.de the area were
in
this
area
longer than 45 minutes
included
if
they seemed
within a 45 minute commute of Wachusett.
The secondary market
area in
those towns which are between
Route 3 and north of Route 109.
this
study is
Routes 495 and
This definition
defined as
128,
south of
includes 21
communit ies,
in
Middlesex County,
Worcester County.
market
northern
location for employees working
the towns in
is
attractive
this
Framingham,
Appendix C
anticipated that the proposed
not only to buyers living
market area,
the secondary market
migration westward
area.
the
Figure 4
shows the boundaries of the
is
the primary and secondary market
within the primary
in
in
Route 495 area or southern Route 495 area.
a map of Massachusetts which
It
Norfolk County arid 2
This area was selected as the secondary
primary and secondary market areas.
all
3 in
area because these towns are seen as the principal
alternative
is
16 in
in
but
a
of
areas.
development
different
list
will
be
locations
also to those now residing
There
is
already evidence of
from data gathered
by the Montachusett
Regional Planning Commission
and a
based on 408 sales
Although 47% of the sales came
in 1986.
local
brokerage agency
from within the same town or within the Montachusett
Region,
reg ion.
another 44% of the buyers moved from
In
Leominster the proportion moving
The percentage moving
almost 55%.
than 7% in
all
four towns surveyed.
results of the study.
Planning
east of the
from the east
from Worcester
was less
Table 3 summarizes the
was
TALE 3
1966 ESIDENTIAL SALES DATA
INIlRATION AND PRODLCT TYPE
BUYER(S)
MNED FROM
WITHIN TOWN
WITHIN EGIN*
WORCESTER AREA+
EAST OF EION
NEW HP HIRE
OTHER STATES
LEONINTER
SALE LOCATION
FITCOIUR6
BWER
19 .8%
55.2%
16.4%
6.0%
54.7%
I.7%
2.3%
31.0%
TOTAL SALES
CONDMINIUM
SINGLE FAMILY
TIO FAMILY
THREE FAMILY
1.7%
10.3%
.0%
1.7%
23.9%
33.8%
4.2%
33.8%
ESTMINSTER
.0%
76.9%
.0
TOTAL
2.8%
.9%
1.4%
15.4%
24.5%
23.0%
5.0%
44.1%
.9%
2.5%
#.0%
84.6%
15.4%
.%
67.7% 298
27.0% 119
4.3% 19
6.9% 4
7.7%
298
79.5% 237
34.5%
19.1%
1.3%
57
41.4%
4
.9%
6
19.9%
5.2%
57.7%
2.8%
1.4%
*DOES NOT INCLUDE SALE LOCATION
MONTACSETT PLNNING REGION (NORTHERN WOtRCESTER COLTY):
GADER
HUBRMDSTON
LNBWUR6 MOYALSTON TE@LETON
ASIHK 4N AYER
LOCASTER
PETERSHM
SHIRLEY
GROTON
TOMSEND
INTON
AsmHBY
PHILLIPSTON STERLING NESTNINSTER
LEOMINSTER
FITDEUR6 HARWD
ATHOL
WINC*ENON
+9OUTHERN IKEESTER COIUTV (49 TOWNS)
S0MlE: MONTADUSET REGIIA PLANNING COMISSION
DATA BASED ON 408 SALES IN 1906 THROM (IE DRKERAGE AGENCY (REPSENTINB 20% OF 1986 SALES NAET)
Another piece of evidence that homebuyers are migrat ing
the northern Worcester
into
is
County area from east
a survey of 40 new homebuyers
completed
asked
in
Winchendon,
Massachusetts
by the Center for Economic Development at
of Massachusetts
University
in
of Route 495
in
the survey was "Where
to Winchendon?"
3
1987.
One of the questions
did you live
before you moved
16% of the 32
Table 4 below demonstrates that
respondents moved from within Route 495.
from the secondary market
is
Winchendon
15
even farther
of the Wachusett Mountain site,
miles northwest
the
area.
TABLE 4
Winchendon Homebuyers Survey 1987
Locat ion of Previous Home
Number
Percent
Within 20 miles of Winchendon
Boston Area within Rt. 495
Cape Cod
Outside of State
23
5
1
3
72
16
3
9
Total
32
100
Locat i or
SOURCE:
Center for Economic Development, University of
Massachusetts, "Winchendon Economic Development
Study", 1987, Survey of 40 homebuyers.
Although
this
survey included a much smaller populat ion than
the Montachusett
Regional
Planning Commission study of 408
home sales and the results show a much
in-migration,
there is
still
some
smaller percentage of
indication that
buyers
the northern Worcester County area are drawn from the
secondary market
area.
in
NOTES TO CHAPTER
III
U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1980
Census Tracts; Fitchburg-Leominster SMSA (mean travel t ime of
17.9 minutes); Worcester SMSA (mean travel time of 18.7
minutes).
I
aUrban Decision Systems,
in primary market area.
chapters.
fully
in later
Inc., Projection of family income
These projections are discussed more
3 Center for
Economic Development, University of Massachusetts,
"Economic Development Study for Winchendon, Massachusetts,
June 1987.
34
HOUSING DEMAND
IV.
Reg ional
(A)
Employment
Over the last
Trends
decade,
New England and the state of
Massachusetts have experienced strong economic growth and low
During
unemployment.
had the highest
unemployment
By 1985,
country.
roughly 4% was the
the states in
the unemployment
New England
in
rate
terms of overall
grew
employment
17th among all
industries were
in
growth.*
Although the traditional
state of decline,
a relative
the emergence of the high technology industry in
manufacturing
employment
tech"
in
a key role
played
sector had a ripple
opportunities
producers,
companies.
in
creating new
effect
the service sector and at
Table 5 summarizes the growth
in
and secondary market
major employment
D
lists
towns in
areas,
centers identified
these measures of employment
and
in
employment,
the State,
the
for each of the five
Chapter
growth
the primary and secondary market
35
"low
parts
such as wire/cable and electrical
average wages and number of establishments for
primary
New England
The new high tech
job losses.
offsetting
During this
the State and the number
10.6% in
of establishments expanded by 14.7%.
"smokestack"
at
For the period
lowest of any other region.'
employment
period total
the
rate of any other region in
the State of Massachusetts ranked
1979-1986,
New England
the recession year of 1975,
III.
Append i x
for each of the
areas.
TABLE 5
Employment Trends
1980-1985
Total Employment
1980
1985
Primary Market
Second. Market
State of Mass.
241,373
175,248
2,595,707
252,689
210,765
2.871,065
Worcester
North 495
South 495
Framingham
Fitch/Leo/Gard
100,891
36,715
38,067
55,698
41,406
98,625
35,518
41,650
66,841
41,112
Average Wages
Percent
Change
1980
1985
16.70%
22.53%
10.61%
$13,093
$15.596
$13,815
$18,278
$23, 243
$19,612
-2.25%
15.64%
9.41%
20.01%
--0.71%
$13, 324
$15,116
$14,517
$14,206
$12, 833
$18, 424
$24,438
$21,423
$21,635
$16,606
Number of Establishments
Percent
Change
1980
1985
39.59%
49.04%
41.96%
11,445
7.958
124,159
12, 998
9,831
142,419
23.15%
28.55%
14.71%
38.28%
61.67%
47.57%
52.29%
29.39%
3,826
1,172
1508
2,292
2,52
3.900
1,480
2074
2,806
2,238
2.09%
26.28%
37.53%
22.43%
9.06%
Worcester = Worcester
North 495 = Littleton, Boxborough, Acton, Stow, Maynard, Hudson
South 495 = Northborough, Marlborough, Southborough, Westborough, Shrewsbury
Framingnam = Framingham, Natick
Fitch/Leo/Ba = Fitchburg, Leominister, Gardner
Average Wages are weighted average wages except in State of Massachusetts figure
Percent Change in Employment and Number of Establishments in Primary and Secondary Markets
is mean of percent change in all towns in the two areas.
SOURCES:
Massachusetts Division of Employment Security, "Employment and Wages in Massachusetts
Cities and Towns 1980-1985"; New England Economic Project - May 1987, "Economic
Indicators for Massachusetts"; Mary Lou Boutwell.
36
Percent
Change
in
Employment
the towns in
on average 22.5% between
1980-1985.
16. 3% average percent change
On an absolute
basis,
secondary market
towns
in
total
in
The higher rate in
explained
part
employment
increased 20% in
the primary one.
Individual
the secondary area is
grew 20% over the period.
came from the North and South
the
better than the market
by the inclusion of Framingham,
principal source of employment
area towns.
primary market
performed
as a whole.
in
the
and only 4.7% in
a
This compares with
employment
the primary market
area grew
the secondary market
growth
It
is
in
the
where
evident that the
primary market
Route 495 areas.
Weighted average wages grew 40% and 49% respectively in
the primary
and secondary markets during
every employment
center experienced wage
which equates to a 4.8% annual
than 29%,
North 495 area saw wages rise 62%,
income which has important
household
housing market.
discussed further
The
The
in
10% annually,
This dramatic
area.
increase
in
trend will
be
the demographic section of the analysis.
last measure of
in
23% in
the primary market
job growth contained in
number of businesses.
South 495,
the
implications for the
implications of this
growth
Establishments
and by 28% in
Table 5 is
increased
center in
Four of the five
terms of this
towns included
37
by
the secondary one.
with a percent change of 37% over the period,
the notable employment
growth.
growth rate,
wages also translates into a strong
in
Although
increases of more
or almost
well above the average for either market
growth
1980-1985.
in
measure of
the south 495
was
center are
located in
the primary market
minutes of the proposed development
Future job growth
is
companies created.
is
in
Middlesex
1985 had
County and 74% of those in
future job growth.
fastest-growing
than
INC.
by 1986.
of new
fewer than 10
Table 6 below reveals that 72% of the businesses
companies with relatively
786
for firms with
less than 10 employees.
the average
Mountain.
evident when examining the high
percentage of employees working
employees.
at Wachusett
to the number
closely tied
This
area and within 30-45
A profiliferation
In
INC.
100"
Magazine
compiles a
in
an annual
list
in
In
1987,
1982 and
26 of the 100 companies had fewer
These are companies
1982.
included in
Magazine's annual survey of the fastest-growing small
public companies
in
America.
2
TABLE 6
Number of Establishments by Employee-Size Type
1985
Total
1-4
5-9
Percent
Less than
10
Worcester
County, MA
15,228
8,242
3,029
74.0%
Middlesex
County, MA
35,942
18,916
6,993
72.1%
SOURCE:
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
County Business Patterns - Massachusetts, 1985;
Mary Lou
Boutwe 11.
38
of
of the 100
basis.
company had 46 employees
addition,
10 employees
of
few employees can be an indicator
public companies or
"INC.
Worcester County in
in
support
industries.
located
in
Center
nearby graduate
research
network of biotechnology
ma.jor medical
become a
his
In
May
prograis and
graduates.
in
1987 New England Economic Project
decade
in
Trade and FIRE,
growth
of the
in
the last
of manufacturing
also to
expansion
employment).
Massachusetts
manufacturing
non-manufacturing
growth through
39
in
Wholesale/Retail
outpaced
and
growth within Massachusetts
1970's,
has outpaced manufacturing
in
in
the
that
estate
employment
employment
half
(Services,
financial/insurance/real
non-manufact uring employment
latter
but
the
in
Dean Ben.jamin
economy
the growth
sectors,
employment.
manufacturing
both national
only to
the high-tech
non-manufacturing
Although
not
attributable
is
employment
the
report,
performance of the Massachusetts
superior
with
center
Economy"
points out
of the University of Lowell
Chinitz
long-term
and 5
the city.
Massachusetts
chapter on "The
has
The city
an educational
also
is
It
and universities
12 colleges
and several
provide an active
14 general
The
1985.
in
institutions
center with
facilites.
care
patient
Center opened
Research
the site
next to
located
is
firms has
75 acre site
20 buildings on a
with plans for
UMass Medical
and a Biotechnology
and
high-tech
group of fiber-optic
A small
the area
several
to
now host
is
area
the Worcester
base,
heavy manufacturing
has a strong
still
the city
Although
MSA.
of the Worcester
component
largest
and the
New England
city
largest
the second
is
The City of Worcester- itself
in
employment
much of the
1980's.
During
1985-1986,
1984.
During the same period,
manufacturing
of the region's
services explains much
1980 and 1984
Statistical
section on economic development
in
June
1987.*
The
the
as well as the
According
to the
1986 the top ten employers combined to provide 30% of
in
jobs in
the total
manufacturing,
itself.
reports that
in
in
the city
while population declined.
outside the city
Since 1960,
1970 and
1984 the
the service areas increased
while manufacturing
Employment
between
is
the
while three are hospitals and one is
The draft
19.5% to 41.3%,
Only one of the ten companies
the city.
proportion of employment
living
Worcester
the master plan cites
economy.
of the city's
diversity
overall
in
in
to service activity
from manufacturing
26.8%.
MSA consists
Planning Board
by the Worcester
completed a Master Plan for the City
City
in
in
area.
Consultants hired
in
industry groups
The Worcester
City and 28 surrounding towns
the primary market
plan,
by major
Twenty of these towns and the City are included
County.
shift
is
Table 7
Figure 5 graphs the change
industry mix over the same period.
of Worcester
to
the Worcester Metropolitan
in
(MSA).
Area
employment
in
demonstrates the shift
between
jobs
prosperity and
area as well.
market
the primary
in
non-manufacturing
This structural change from manufacturing
increased 8. 4%.
evident
declined 8% from
employment
from
dropped from 43.1% to
increased over this
period
This suggests that employees
and commuting have also increased.
the number of Worcester residents working
40
outside
Table 7
Average Annual Employment by Major Industry Division
Worcester SMSA/MSA
1988-1985
1980
Number Share
Industry
1985
Number Share
32.1% 47,500
2.9% 7,488
Total Change
1988-1985
Number Share
25.9% (5,853) -6.2%
1.1%
4.0% 2,525
Manufacturing
Construction
Transportation, Com.,
Utilities
Wholesale and
Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance,
Real Estate
Services
Government
53,353
4,875
TOTAL
166,377 188.8% 183,700 1N.8 % 17,323
Source:
8,288
4.5%
3,145
1.4%
39,099
23.5% 43,700
23.8%
4,681
0.3%
9,159
30,8%
23,940
5.5% 11,500
18.6% 42,968
14.4% 22,588
0.8%
6.3% 2,341
4.8%
23.4% 12,004
12.2% (1,440) -2.1%
5,55
3.0%
.8%
1986: Worcester Chamber of Commerce, "Eployment and Wages in
Establishments Subject to Unemployment Compensation Laws by City and
and Town'.
1985: Division of Employment Securities,
"Employment Review: Employment Supplement', 1987
FIGURE 5 - Worcester MSA
-icymnt
By Indu.by - 1WO
Manufacturing (32.1%)
Senice. (1.M)
Construction (2.9%)
Real E.AcA* (.6%)
Ufttles (3.ox)
%.us Trade (23.%)
Wnmpayni By induntry - low
Govemnw
Mauwfactur*g (25.%)
Se..km (23.4%)
Condruction (4.0%)
Umele. (4.eX)
Red Etate (6.3M)
Astl Trade (23.8X)
42
the city
has
for
increased mobility
this
increased from
10% to 25%.
is
One principal reason
of
the construction
I-290,
1-190 and 1-495.
The growth
is
also
based
in
employment
on a combination
service company expansion.
employers on
state,
most
facilities
Data General
in
(4500
Bedford,
areas),
centered on the paper industry,
of its
shortage of hotel rooms
to the growth
in
in
"Employment
Department
and Earnings"
of Labor -
services continued
(500
in
Worcester
MSA,
According
been
in
General
largest
to the North
Fitchburg,
there
is
a
area due
and there are currently 2 new
report
Based on the
of April
1987 from the U.S.
the growth
the year ended February
the Fitchburg-Leominster
Employment
Wayland,
Warren Communicat ions
Bureau of Labor Statistics,
in
the
Westborough),
the Fitchburg/Leominster
employment
the
has also seen a transformation
hotels under construction on Route 2.
PMSA's.
in
which has historically
located in
of Commerce
largest
the towns in
(875
Raytheon
Fitchburg during 1986.
Chamber
and
employees in
with some 750 employees was one of the
employers in
in
the
economy to the high-tech and service sectors.
Electric
Central
GTE
Northborough),
Fitchburg,
(1100 in Littleton).
A shows,
throughout
West borough),
750 in
defense
(37,700 total
spread
in
arid South 495 areas
of high-tech,
1-495 are Digital
in
the North
ps Appendix
primary and secondary market
4, 300
in
1987 in
the
MSA and the Boston
the Construction sector advanced 7.2%,
5.8%, and 7.8% respectively.
FIRE grew 6.7%, 6.6%, and 5.7%
and Services increased 5.5%, 4.3% and 4.9%.5
43
Table 8 outlines
in
the growth
employment
sectors in
TABLE
Total
these SMSA' s.
8
By Selected Industry Group
1986-February 1987
(000's)
Employment
February
Percent
Change
MSA
2/86
2/87
Worcest er
Manufacturrig
Construct ion
FIRE
Services
Whole/Ret Trade
46.4
6.9
11.9
45.0
45.6
45.4
7.4
12.7
47.5
48. 3
Fitch/Leom
Manufacturing
13.5
Construct ion
1.7
FIRE
Services
Whole/Ret
1.5
6.8
9.5
13.2
1.8
1.6
6. 8
10.0
295.8
53.9
135.0
525.0
367.3
291.5
58.1
142.7
547.9
697.3
Trade
Boston
Manufacturing
Construct ion
FIRE
Services
Whole/Ret Trade
U.S. Department of Labor - Bureau of
SOURCES:
"Employment and Earnings"; Mary Lou Bout we 11.
The New England Economic Project
association of New England businesses,
educational
Inc.
through
Boston.
-2.2%
5.8%
6.6%
5.2%
-1.5%
7.8%
5.7%
4.3%
2.8%
Labor Statistic
a rion-profit
state governments,
in
and
economic
conjunction with Data Resources,
the Federal Home Loan Bank Board Office
The May 1987 report
non-manufacturing
trade,
7.2%
6.7%
5.5%
5.9%
issues periodic joint
institutions,
analyses and forecasts
(NEEP),
-2.2%
employment,
and FIRE categories,
forecasts growth
which
in
in
includes the services,
of 2.7% in
the 1986-1989 period.
This represents a
growth
rate
a decline
in
in
in
leveling off of growth compared to the 4.7%
the 1983-1986 period.
the rate of growth
1983-1986 to 6.0% in
employment
versus
is
2.1% growth
versus 3.5% in
that
total
The primary
nonagricultural
will
remain
This will
growth
in
employment
in
25% in
there are
However,
in
the North
Central
than
in
It
is expected
to
and income over
the 1980-1985
to total
495 area will
in
1987 which
so
by NEEP.
According
Digital
will
to the North
open a new plant
The
1-190,
1-290 and 1-495 and the location of four commercial
at
Piedmont,
attract
highway transportation created
the Worcester Municipal
Airport
Express Air and Eastern Express)
employers to the region.
larger pool
in
expected to employ 2,000 people by
1989.
carriers
improvements in
higher
the higher rate of growth
continue.
is
period..
employment
the state overall,
indications that
Chamber of Commerce,
Lancaster
the state
may grow slower than the 2.7% forecast
employment
a
MSA and 34% in
Worcester
Leorinster/Fitchburg MSA)
in
in
have a somewhat
percent age of manufact ur ing emp1oyment
State,
result
1980-1983.
3 years than they witnessed
in
2 years
below 4%.
Worcester and Fitchburg/Leominster
(21%
the next
employment
in
8.2%
manufacturing
and secondary markets are likely
experience more moderate
the next
1983-1986.
1983-1986 and .5%
unemployment
for
also pro.jects
income from
Meanwhile,
to remain flat
expected
in
per capita
1986-1989.
decline of .8% in
a
in
The report
of potential employees
45
Finally,
in
by
air
(Continental,
should continue to
there may be a
the northern portion of
the
primary market
than in
the secondary market
locations closer to Boston.
Fitchburg/Leominster
unemployment
As of March
MSA and the Gardner
1987,
or other
the
LMA had higher
rates of 5.9% and 7.5% respectively than the
Boston PMSA at 3.6% or the Worcester
MSA at 4.2%..
time,
rate was 4.5% and the
U.S.
the Massachusetts unemployment
one was 6.9%.'
prices and
These factors coupled with
increased availability
increase employment
of land should serve to
over the next
several years.
Planning and Community Development
1990,
that
lower housing
Based on the projections of the Worcester
there will
At
be 12,000 new jobs in
in
Office of
a report
of June
the City of Worcester
but only 3096 new employees to fill
them.
1987,
by
Migration to
the Worcester area from adjacent counties and states may help
solve this
labor shortage,
"affordable"
(B)
but only if
housing to attract
there
is
sufficient
the potential movers.7
Population Trends
Table 9 presents historic
following
geographical
primary market
area;
City of Worcester;
County;
1970 and
areas:
Princeton-Westilinster;
the primary
the
market area excluding the
the secondary market area;
Middlesex County;
Worcester
and the state of Massachusetts.
1980 numbers are U.S.
figures are
reliable
population figures for the
Census numbers,
The
while the 1985
from the Massachusetts state census and less
according to several sources.
46
Between
1970 and
1980
TABLE 9
Population Trends
1970-1985
Net Increase
1970-1980
Net Increase
198-1985
Annual
Percent
Change
Number
4.43%
2.03%
255
371
2.10%
Annual
Percent
Change
1970
1980
1985
1,681
4,273
2,425
5,139
2,680
5,510
Primary Market
571,695
588,610
586,596
8,915
0.16%
5,986
0.21%
Primary Market
w/o Worc. City
395,123
418,811
421,945
23,688
0.60%
3,134
0.15%
Secondary Market
325,608
334,618
332,804
9,010
0.28%
(1,814)
-0.11%
Worcester County
637,079
646,352
648,529
9,273
0.15%
2,177
0.67%
Middlesex County
1,398,355
1,367,034
1,347,546
(31,321)
-e.22%
(19,488)
-0.29%
Massachusetts
5,689, 170
5,736,037
5,746,411
46,867
0.08%
10,374
0.04%
Historic
Princeton/
Westminster
SOURCES:
Number
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
1970 and 1980 Census of Population and Housing;
Massachusetts Municipal Profiles, 1987-1988 (1985 MA State Census);
Mary Lou Boutwell
47
1.44%
Both
and
the primary market
annually in
Massachusetts as a whole,
Although they started
Princeton grew much
Worcester,
this
bases,
from much smaller
rate.
and
Westminster
faster than the other areas with growth
Also of note
area grew .60% annually without
underlining the fact
that
is
that
the
the city
population in
of
the suburbs
towns grew faster than the urban area during
rural
and small
growth
which had a .08% annual
rates of 2.03% and 4.43% annually.
primary market
the secondary area.
in
.28%
more than the state of
areas grew slightly
market
increasing only . 16%
flat,
population remained relatively
period.
Between
1980 and
Westminster and the primary
Princeton,
Worcester
without
grew at
During
population.
in
Worcester County,
market
both with and
higher rates,
slightly
but
and Middlesex County and the state
secondary market,
increased
Worcester
1985 population
the 1980-1985
in
period,
reversing
size,
the city
the
lost
of
the decline in
population experienced during the previous decade.
Table
population
10 demonstrates that
increased 1.56% in
units soared
by over 22%.
dramatic
growth
in
period.
Households
during
1979-1980,
the primary market,
This disparity
3.01
increased
explained by the
16.8% over the period with
Average household size in
and 2.97 respectively,
primary market
housing
the number of households over the same
average household size dropping from 3.14
1980.
is
when overall
in 1980.
in
1970 to 2.76
Princeton and Westminster
in
of
exceeded the average for the
This underscores the fact that
48
these
TABLE 10
Population, Households and Housing Units
1970-1980
Year
Primary
Market
1970
1980
Percent Change
Secondary
Market
1970
1980
Percent Change
Population
Households
Housing Units
571,695
172,601 *
174,021
580,610
1.56%
201,616
16.81%
213,489
22.68%
325,608
90,739 *
93,270
334,618
2.77%
111,253
22.61%
114,395
22.65%
United States
-
1970
1980
Percent Change
SOURCES:
284,870,888
63, 401,808
227,729,570
11.16%
8. 776,8NO
27.40%
U.S. Department of Comerce, Bureau of the Census
1970-1980
Urban Decision Systems, Inc.
Mary Lou Boutwell
* Estimate of 1978 number of households using historical
percentages of group quarters population (4.0% primary;
5.2% in secondary, and average household size figures
of 3.14 for primary and 3.47 for secondary.
49
1986.13
by
nationally
alone.
living
elderly
to
parents'
of their
out
marriage;
1985,
17% since
families
married-couple
increase compared
100% between
and
living
periods,
1970-1975
alone
occurred
since
is
Families
the
(householder
increased
13% during
in
30% respectively
increase
in
the number
of all households
in 1970 to 24%
nationally
in
1985.
in
compared
the
1975-1980
of persons
changes
Single-person households
much
lives
who
1980-1985
one of the major demographic
1970.
at a
increased
Although the growth
1970-1985.
of 36% and
growth rates
of
rate
with other types of families.
nonfamily households slowed to
with
period,
small
alone or with one or more nonrelatives)
more than
Census Bureau
special
a
to
had a relatively
Nonfamily households
rate.
the number of
and
by men alone and by women alone
maintained
greater
By
the 1970-1985
Throughout
1985.'
in
according
the divorce rate.
under 25 years old had
by young adults
1980,
prior
itself
trend had reversed
households maintained
report
in
who moved
independently
live
the growth
and Second,
the first
declined
18-25 years of age,
residences to
in
the growth
First,
households:
in
of young adults,
the proportion
1970's two trends
During the
the growth
to
contributed
more
and
households,
parent
more single
of delayed marriage,
trends
by national
explained
households is
in
growth
The
reaching 2.67
further
has fallen
size
household
average
1980,
Si rice
and Fitchburg/Leominster.
Worcester
for
communit ies
bedroom
been family-oriented
towns have traditionally
which has
rose from 17%
Meanwhile,
large
containing five
households
persons or more
fell
from 21% to
11%.
The shift
in
the age of the population
responsible for the growth
and early
1980' s
in
is
also
During
households.
the 1970's
the baby boom generat ion reached young
adulthood and the numbers of adults over age 65 began to grow.
The majority of the decline in
by a drop
Table 11
in
household size is
the average number of persons
outlines the age distribution
the primary
and secondary market
projected for
1986 and 1990.
accounted
under age 18.
of the population
areas
in
for
in
1970 and 1980 and
Figure 6 shows the current
and
projected age breakdown, of the population in
graph form.
increase
area from 29.8
in
median age
1970 to 30.5
in
in
1980 is
United States population
the population
in
the primary market
in
the primary market
was the largest
that
In
general.
1970.
and secondary markets was
population and
segment at
the under 25 group will
population with the biggest decline in
17.5%.
1990 it
the primary source of entry-level
the decline
in
the group will
shortage in
the Boston metropolitan area.
hold down new commercial
this
age cohort will
jobs and
exacerbate the existing labor
This could curtail
the service sector of the economy,
will
is
the 18-24 age group.
is
in
By
the 25-34
decrease to 32% of the
This age group
growth
1980 roughly 40% of
By 1986 the proport ion under
25 was estimated at 37% of the total
projected
in
consistent with the aging of the
under age 25 versus 45% in
age cohort
The
construction.
which in
turn
The drop off
also weaken the demand for
in
apartments.
TABLE 11
Age Distribution of Population
Historic and Projected
Primary Market
Age Group
Actual 1988
Estimated 1986
Number
Number
Percent
0-5
6-17
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
45,074
112,616
8, 276
92,365
62,774
57,354
58,792
71,330
Total
588,581 10W.0@%
Median Age
7.76%
19.40%
13.83%
15.91%
10.81%
9.88%
10.13%
12.29%
47,780
99,249
72,260
103,241
79,432
52,7%
57,663
78,825
Percent
8.08%
16.79W
12.22%
17.46%
13.43%
8.93%
9.75%
13.33%
591,246 188.088%
32.4
30.5
Projected 1991
Number
44,553
104,101
69,224
111,546
98,556
61,925
57,929
91,137
638,971
Percent
6.97%
16.29%
10.83%
17.46%
15.42%
9.69%
9.87%
14.26%
100.0of
34.1
Secondary Market
Age Group
8-5
6-17
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Total
Median Age
SOURCES:
Actual 1980
Estimated 1986
Projected 1991
Number
Number
Number
25,350
79,847
46,234
59,682
49,473
44,486
36,185
37,592
Percent
6.71%
20.91%
12.23%
15.79%
13.9%
11.77%
9.57%
9.94%
378,049 100.oft
31.5
22,531
67,945
42,651
65,862
59,811
44,267
37,304
42,951
Percent
5.89%
17.76%
11.15%
17.01%
15.64%
11.57%
9.75%
11.23%
382,522 100.0on
33.9
Percent
20,495
68,905
41,683
68,979
70,566
52,625
37,462
58,438
4.98%
16.76%
18.14%
16.78%
17.16%
12.88%
9.11%
12.27%
411,153
100.00%
35.8
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;
Urban Decision Systems, Inc.;
Mary Lou Boutwell
FIGURE 6
AGE DISTRIBUTION
-
PIMM*Y
WAFET
120110
1000AF
70
-
9.1
'U Tg
91040'
30'
20'
-V
10
0
0-6
18-24
6-17
35-44
25-34
46-64
86-64
6+
Age Gn
E
180
1991
1986
SECONDARY MARME
80
70
--
-T
--
l
26
2 3
to
LA
%Or
0-6
6-17
= 198o
11-24
0
25-34
1986
35-"
Age Group
~
46-64
1991
86-64
65+
Meanwhile the over 65 age cohort
12. 2% of the populat ion in
from
1991,
1980 to 14.26% in
This
an
the same market.
25 and 45
between
is
projected
1980 and
as well
the decline
In
and child-bearing
in
in
the 6-24 age
or over 35%,
the trend of
the 30's and 40's,
years in
the number of
spite of the decline in
18-25 age cohort and the recent tendency
indicate that
slightly
or friends.
in
this
by 1991 the secondary market
17.16% versus the primary market
The primary
market
the younger 25-34 cohort,
will
will
with
have a
resulting
the primary market
is
proportion of the over 65 group,
age distribution
in
be less demand
higher demand
in
expensive,
"empt y-nest er"
by 1991.
in
Irn
12.27%.
indicates that
(18-24
for move-up larger homes
popul at i on.
that
a lower median age of
14.26% versus
for apartments
maintenence-free
15.42% in
projected to have a higher
the primary market
addition there should be greater
the 35-44 age
have more concentration
versus 35.8 for the secondary market
addition,
age group
The projections also
higher proportion of the population in
category.
will
in
the population between
until
point to an increase in
to double up with relatives
34.1
addition,
A continuation
households over the next five
group,
area
as the tendency of the over 65 group to live
independently,
the
the primary market
to grow by 55,000 people,
1991.
delaying marriage
projected to increase
increase of almro:st 20,000 people.
increase more than offsets
group in
is
age group)
This
there
and
(35-44 age group).
need for smaller,
units for the
larger
more
In
Given this
(25-34)
and condominiums will
probably hold
the primary market
over the short term.
Following
homes
starter
in
the 25-34 segment
will
likely
following the earlier
will
in
result
in
decline in
pattern
in
lower demand for starter
this
prior
to moving
(30-45)
Mobility:
March
demonstrates that there was an
decline
in
the previous two decades.
in
year.
According
age group)
1984"
1984 after
This rate
in
it
increasing
is
its
an article
a
implies that
in
people aged 20-24
the
"On
increased
drawn
However,
The Road Again"
points
is
from 20% to 21% from
marriage and child-bearing,
greater job mobility may explain this
1987
a
moving the most."* The proportion of people
The delay in
An article
in
(34% of the
1982-1983 period.
entitled
The
of people who move
the older baby boom generation that
aged 30-34 who moved
1984.
the percent
to the report,
moved the most
Joe Schwartz
out that
is
buyers
least once
housing units turn over on average every 5.8 years.
nation's mobility rate
unit
the national
17% per year in
rate to more than
mobility
increase
The Census Bureau
1983-March
increase in
This
resident ial
turn houses over at
into the next age group.1*
"Geographical
The
an increase
Previous research suggests that
age cohort
Report
the primary market,
homes.
in
up
1991,
the secondary market.
the 35-44 age group could result
turn over.
in
for
demand
estimate of age distribution,
entitled
"Demographic
1983 to
as well as
trend.
Forecasts"
in
the March
issue of American Demographics supports the conclusions
from the estimates cited above.''
55
The authors of the
art
developed
occupancy
Joint
on a cohort model
rely
icle
Center
1985 to
in highest
for
for
demand
larger
increase
"starter"
now)
7+ room houses.
condominiums will
growth
from 87 million
in
Single-family homes
with the largest
houses
ldren and
as the smaller
with 5-6 rooms and another
Meanwhile demand
weaken,
capturing
baby bust
for
only 4% of the
generation
(under
18
comes of age .
Table
population
12 outlines
growth
three
in
the secondary market
Massachusetts
(MISER)
at
population
for Social
patterns
the
in
1970-1980
irn each county and
for each county.
job growth
by using employment
the state
"net
The migration rate
forecast
based on
the fertility
migration" rate
was tied
to
trend data from the Bureau of
Analysis for each county and allocating
56
Research
MISER
decade,
a
The
by the
and Economic
351 towns and cities
in
area,
of Massachusetts.
the University of Massachusetts.
for all
of
for the primary market
was prepared
1990,
calculated
Economic
projections
area and the state
Institute
the population trends
death
different
1990-1991
"Low"
projection,
first
and
the
Approximately 22% of the new
homes.
in
live
the
The
to
boom generat ion has chi
as the baby
households will occupy residences
44% will
According
nationwide
80% of the increase
Masnick at
populat ion
by the year 2000.
106 million
account
looks
will
housing
Harvard.
uses the middle-series
model
households
total
MIT and
of the Bureau of the Census.
model,
will
and George
by John Pitkin
for Housing Studies at
Pitkin/Masnick
projection
of households and
employment
TABLE 12
Population Projections
1998 and 1991
1980
LOW
MIDDLE
HIGH
1990
1990
1991
Primary Market
580,610
Annual Growth Rate
591,979
. 20%
615,447
0.6 %
638,971
8.91%
334,618
Secondary Market
Annual Growth Rate
341,726
0.21%
354,695
0.6f%
411,155
2.08%
assachusetts
5,736,037
Annual Growth Rate
SOURCES:
5,916,539 6,080,199
6,382,996
8.31%
0.60%
0.90%
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
1988 Census figures
Massachusetts Institute for Economic and Social Research
1990 "Low" projection
Urban Decision Systems, Inc.
1991 "High" projection
Mary Lou Boutwell - 1990 "Middle" projection
57
down to the individual towns.
The Miser
population growth of .20% annually in
in
the secondary market and .31%
rates for
the market
Table 9,
the primary market,
areas between
population growth
in
exceeded the
addition,
.21%
the entire state.
for
growth
in
1980-1985 summarized
some of the towns
notably Princeton and Westminster,
market,
projects
these figures relate closely to the historical
Although
In
forecast
in
the primary
has already
forecasts based on 1986 town population counts.
these figures don't reflect
the actual
growth that has occured within counties in
employment
the last
several
years.
The second projection,
population growth of
This estimate
primary market
In
.60%
"Middle"
in
all
the shift
migration
into
without Worcester City
The
in
last estimate,
Inc.,
Los Angeles,
reliance on recent
characteristics
After
growth
in
the
the 1970-1980 decade.
regional
employment
since
smaller rural towns that apppears underway
"High"
1991,
(UDS),
a private
California.
1970-1980 patterns and national
region.
areas.
to the service sector and a trend toward
Decision Systems,
based
in
in
support a higher growth rate.'
nationally
forecasts
three market
based on the .60% annual
is
addition the strong growth
1980,
1990,
employment
is
This
3
the product
forecasting company
forecast
is
based on
population trends with
patterns or migration
looking closely at
in
little
the
1980 socioeconomic
for a particular market,
particularly
age of householders and the year housing was built
58
of Urban
the mean
and
occupied,
UDS
level data.
balances
its
projections
They do dampen the trends that
previous period,
After devising 4 different
the
one for
lowest
dominated the
assuming the patterns wi11
unabated.
its
population growth of
final
not continue
scenarios,
estimate.
.91%
IDS
report,
UDS
selects
predicts
annually for the primary market,
for the secondary one and .90% for the state.
balance of this
and county
with city
the age and
Throughout
income distribution
the
data
for
1980 and the estimates are the figures supplied by UDS,
but
the populat ion totals,
household and housing
project ions are expressed as a range
and
"High"
Table
markets
1980 and projected by UDS
Between
is
the population
a graph of
1980 and 1991,
This rate of income
market
period.
(60%)
to $31,301
for
in
primary area
is
1991.
ion over this
period.
income
the primary market.
in
the secondary
in
over the same
(71%)
the secondary area ranges from
1980 to $39,437 in
period than during
1986 and
exceeds that
growth
income
of the
UDS estimates median household
areas the rate of growth
the
"Middle"
the primary and secondary
and the state as a whole
Median
$24,630 in
in
income distribut
77% from $17,672
rising
from the "Low",
13 outlines the income distribution
in
Figure 7
unit
project ions.
households
in
?%
is
1991.
much
In all three geographical
lower in
the 1980-1986 one.
below the median
59
1986 to 1991
The median
level
secondary area and the state throughout
Some of the discrepancy in
the
median
in
income
both the
the period shown.
income between the
in
TABLE 13
Income Distribution of Population
Historic and Projected
Primary Market
Income
Broup
Actual 1980
HOUSEHOLDS (HH)
Number
Less than $15, M
$15,000-$24, 999
$25, 00-$34, 999
$35, W-$49,999
$50, 80-$74, 999
83,846
58,604
34,329
18,68
5,183
1,572
$75,@@+
Total
Median HH Income
201,594
Estimated 1986
Percent
Number
Percent
41.59%
29.07%
17.83%
8.%%
2.57%
0.78%
100.8 8
$17,672
Projected 1991
Number
Percent
60,935
46,82
39,155
34,275
20,724
10,884
28.65%
22.01%
18.41%
16.11%
9.74%
5.08%
50,193
43,233
38,630
39,540
35,%2
27,82
21.32%
18.37%
16.41%
16.80%
15.28%
11.82%
212,713
100.00%
$24,690
235,378
100.00%
$31,301
Secondary Market
Income
Group
HOUSEHOLDS (HH)
Actual 1980
Estimated 1986
Number
Number
Percent
Percent
Projected 1991
Number
Percent
W
Less than $15,0
$15,88-$24,999
$25, 0-$34,999
$35,000-$49,999
$50,00-$74,999
$75,000+
33,826
30,542
25,641
21,255
10,537
4,8%
26.70%
24.11%
20.24%
16.78%
8.32%
3.86%
26,364
24,843
23,115
26,599
21,673
11,483
19.68%
18.54%
17.25%
19.85%
16.17%
8.51%
21,88
22,686
21,341
26,766
31,370
24,239
14.76%
15.30%
14.39%
18.05%
21.16%
16.35%
Total
Median HH Income
126,697
100.00%
$24,638
133,997
100.08%
$31,795
148,282
168.00%
$39, 437
Massachusetts
Median H* Income
SOURCES:
$21,116
$28,532
Urban Decision Systems, Inc.
Mary Lou Boutwell
60
$36,175
FIGURE 7 - INCOME DISTRIBUTION
PRMARY MAMVET
90-
80
7060e7
40 -
si
30 20 10 -
.
101, %1 . 1% ,IOt'
1
15-25
0-18
1 .w
lr
e
-35
.
-~
I- - -
m
35-20
,
a,-75
I--
j,
-
-
-
75+
Ineame (oo's)
i
1991
196
1960
SECONDAR
MAMET
0L1
0-18
1-
25-35
35-80
Income (ooo.)
= 1980
br1986
1991
80-75
76+
and secondary markets can be explained by the age
primary
distribut
ion and education
Research
on
higher
level of the two populat ions.
income households are headed by
35-44 and 45-54 age groups.**
Furthermore
respect ively.
the highest
married
family type are affected
husband and wife.
under 18 depended
In
1985,
in
The incomes of
1985.
by the dual earning power of
72% of these couples with children
The
1986 estimates
for the primary and secondary markets
indicate that the secondary market
population
(25%)
the primary market
in
larger concentration
and 45-54 age group than
have a
both markets will
The
the higher-earning age groups.
have 25% and
will
has a
the 35-44
By 1991
(20%).
larger proportion in
primary market
100 and $33, 200
on two or more earners.
of age distribution
of its
the median
couples with children had
income at $32,400
median
1985,
in
the
the
individuals in
Nationwide
these two cohorts was $31,
income for
this
indicates that
income and age distribution
the secondary 30% in
this
range.
The other ma.jor factor which
education level
influences income is
completed by the head or heads of household.
Householders with
four years of college had a median
$37,500 versus $24,300 for high school graduates.
households
with
someone with
at
incomes of $50,000 and over,
least four years of college.
of the population
in
the secondary market
The differences
in
educational
income of
Of all
51% are headed by
In
1980,
37.8%
had completed four
or more years of college compared to 17% in
market.
the
the primary
level and age
distribution
explain much of the range in
between the primary market
income
secondary one
($
The median
24, 630 in
income in
median household
($17,672
in
1980)
and the
1980).
the primary area would enable a
household to acquire a housirig unit which cost roughly $55, 000
in
1980,
assuming a 25 year 10% fixed mortgage for 80% of the
purchase price and a payment
equal to 28% of the median
irncome.
This analysis ignors tax
Table
below traces the median
14
over the
1980-1991
period
" house
"affordable
for
income
in
the primary market
as well as the price of an
the median
TABLE
Median
implications f:ar simplicity.
income household.
14
Household Income in
1980-1991
Primary Market
1980
1986
1991
Median Income
$17,672
$24,690
$31,301
Affordable House
$55,000
$78,439
$99,500
Assumptions:
SOURCES:
10% fixed rate 25 year mortgage;
20% down payment ;
Loan payment = 28% of median income
UDS,
By 1991
$99,500 house
Inc. estimate of 1986 and 1991;
Mary Lou Boutwell
the median
in
income household can acquire a
the primary market.
A household
secondary market can afford a $78,000 house in
$125,300 house
in 1991.
With a $50,000
in
the
1980 and a
income, a household
could acquire a $158,848 property while a $75,000 income would
63
buy a $238, 300 one.
incomes over $50,000 and
the primary market had
in
the total
1980 only 6,600 households or 3.3% of
In
By 1991,
only 1,600 exceeded the $75,000 range.
households are estimated
27,800 over $75,000 in
Both
lower
of
income over $50,000 and
the primary market.
interest rates and existing equity in
previous house
The effect
to have
increase the amount
is
illustrated
that
a 1% increase in
the
income requirement
by Table
mortgage
drop
in
impact
of rising
housing sales in
the month
is
is
to the financial
The
10% in
during
of this
in
If
market.
1983 and
equity"
1984,
38% in
1985 arid
would
in
for $55,000 in
have appreciated
the householder had originally
price or $44,000, the equity in
64
to use for
purchases.
lines of credit
property appreciation
it
the 6.4%
the housing market
for existing homeowners
"home
house had been acquired
householder,
but
lessen
1987 following the
that
purposes or apply to new home
explosive growth
result
of variable
This rapid rate of appreciation has created
large equity investments
alternative
increase
the Boston metropolitan area
prices of houses in
1986.'5
of May
the latest reminder
appreciated 70 percent
indicates
from fixed rates may
rates somewhat,
1-2% rate rise,
closely tied
The table
The availability
interest rates with 1-2% discounts
the negative
15.
and
interest rates will
by 7-9%.
a
a household can afford.
interest rates on housing demand
affordability
63,800
is
the market.
The
one
If
a
1980 by a median
to $141,933
in
income
1986.
borrowed 80% of the purchase
the house
in
1986 would be
TABLE 15
Income Requirement Under Varying Interest Rate Assumptions
Assumptions
Mortgage Amount:
Mortgage Term:
Income Rat io:
of purchase price
years
of gross income
8. 88%
25
28.8W%
Interest Rate
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
Purchase
Price
$100, 88
$125,8 8
$150,88
$175,888
$288,888
$225,888
$250, 88
$3W,8ON
$358,888
$400,M0
$450,88
$500,888
$558,0888
$600,M0
SOURCE:
$26,765
$33,457
$40,148
$46,839
$53,531
$60, 222
$66,913
$80,296
$93, 679
$187,061
$128,444
$133,827
$147, 210
$160,592
$29, 88 $31,477 $33,926 $36, 429 $38,979
$36, 359 $39, 346 $42, 407 $45, 536 $48, 724
$43,631 $47,215 $50,889 $54,643 $58, 468
$50,903 $55,084 $59, 370 $63,750 $68,213
$58,175 $62,953 $67, 852 $72, 857 $77,958
$65,447 $70, 822 $76, 333 $81,964 $87,702
$72,719 $78, 691 $84,814 $91,871 $97,447
$87,263 $94,430 $181, 777 $109,286 $116,937
$101, 886 $110, 168 $118,740 $127,500 $136,426
$116, 350 $125,906 $135,703 $145,714 $155,915
$138,894 $141, 645 $152,666 $163,929 $175, 405
$145, 438 $157,383 $169,629 $182, 143 $194,894
$159,981 $173, 121 $186, 592 $200,357 $214,384
$174, 525 $188, 868 $203, 555 $218,571 $233, 873
Mary Lou Boutwell
65
roughly $101,400.
increased
area
in
Without
to
the estimated
1986 of $24,690,
median
primary
scenarios predict
in
3,585
population
is
the total
group quarters,
etc.
at the same
the
low projection is
the
from the UDS
projection
in
forecast.
is
the availablitiy
is
more
significant
to realize
likely
figure has stood at roughly
and
it
is
The 2.64 average size
at
size of 2.67
The
in the middle
low ones.
or
friends or relatives,
in
Changes
other
the fertility
preferences for small
could reverse
Average household size
low as long as there
66
the
encourage more young or elderly
average household size.
increase in
forecast
the high projection comes
of affordable housing,
to remain
their
in
in
personnel,
halfway between the high and
people to double up with
in
military
living
1986 national average.
economic conditions that might
the decline
The household
average household
average household size of 2.60
the
demand for housing units
the primary market
The
in
The three
Vacancy rates are also forecast
rate of 5.6%.
historical
in
rate.
in
this
in
projections
population minus the people
Historically
4% of the population
period.
the primary market.
such as students,
he could
housing requirement
a range of annual
to
house,
of population
an incremental
from 1,175
house.
1986.
area for the 1980-1990
market
prisoners,
in
16 uses the three sets
12 to project
the primary market
in
from the first
only acquire a $78,500 dwelling
Table
income
he could afford a $180,000
the equity appreciation
Table
same householder had
the income of this
If
is
not a
rate and people are able
families and
TABLE 16
Projected Housing Demand
1988-1991
1980
1990 "LOW"
1990 "MIDDLE"
1991 "HIGH"
Primary Market Area
Population
Household Population
580,610
557,410
591,979
567,708
615,447
59,214
638,971
612,217
Housing Units
Occupied Housing Units
213,489
201,616
225,238
212,625
234,167
221,054
249,342
235,379
Average Household Size
Vacancy Rates
2.76
5.56%
Incremental Housing Requirement
Total
Annual
SOURCES:
2.67
5.60%
11,749
1,175
2.64
5.6%
20,678
2,068
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
1980 Figures and Average Household Size for Low 1990
based on 1986 Average Household Size in 1987 Statistical Abstract
Urban Decision Systems, Inc.
1991 Projection and Average Household Size
Mary Lou Boutwell - 1990 Middle Projection and
Average Household Size for Low and Middle
Massachusetts Institute for Social and Economic Research
1998 Low Projection
67
2.6
5.60%
35,853
3,585
independent
1 iving arrangements.
predict a continuation
in
Recent nat ional
project ions
household size,
the decline in
but
at a slower rate than during 1970-1985.16
The Worcester Master Plan of June
cumulative
in
1987 projects
housing demand of 2,000 units for the City
order to maintain a 4% vacancy rate and avoid
increases associated with households competing
of housing.*7
units.
Over the
units in
last three years,
the City of Worcester
1984-1985,
City's
This implies an annual demand
and 548 in
-in March
was 650 in
alternatives
by Donald W.
Service Planning Corporation
a different
"growth
factor"
or migration
level related to the
rate and spillover
housing costs in
the Mass Pike/Route 495 area.
("Low")
to 975
1980 28% of the housing
Worcester.
outside
effect of growth and high
The study
the City had a housing-shortage of
The estimates of annual
1986.
range from 635
In
units needed
Each of the alternatives reflects
low unemployment
contends that
Based
("Medium")
units in
on this
low and medium projections,
and
1,310
("High").
the primary market
Worcester,
were in
then 72% are
rough estimate and the SSPC
the primary market
between 2,300 and 3,500 units annually between
68
1,870 units
demand for housing units
If 28% of the units are in
the City.
(SSPC)
population under 3 growth
1990.
through
526-in
A detailed study of the
1986, contains estimates of additional
to accomodate the City's
in
over 650
1985-1986,
which was completed
Chamberlayne of the Social
a shortage
the net addition of housing
1983-1984.1*
housing market,
price
for
for
by 1990
will
*need
1987 and 1990.
measure of demand
Another
est imate of potent ial
coefficient".
in
the
one.
in
employee
the primary market
buyers or a "commuter
primary market
and 210,765
employed
the secondary
in
Using the New England Economic Project's projected
growth
rates for Massachusetts,
it
is
possible
derive a rough
estimate of the amount of incremental
employment
1985-1989.
the
for
On this
Report
basis,
primary and secondary markets will
addition of 39, 153 new workers.
of
1987,
Development
in
estimates that the
by 1989 employment
total
labor force participation
population
to the employment
is
1990.
projection.
estimating the average number
According
to SSPC's
Worcester
in
1990 will
approach
report
1980's",
1.782*
new employment
units over the period
will
rate
An
'*
The resulting
to households
of March
1986 on "Housing
in
the average adults-per-household
This results
in
generate demand
or 7,500 annually.
households contained 2 workers,
in
a projection of new
In
other
for 30,000 housing
In
1980 58.6% of all
while 29.9% had
11.4% no workers according to the U.S.
Census.
17,580 of the new households will
8, 970 wi11 have 1 worker and 3, 420 no workers.
69
by
of adults-per-household.
households of roughly 30,000 over the 4 years.
percentages,
a net
derived by applying this
population figure of 53,634 can be converted
the
463,255,
the Economic Base Analysis
be approximately 73% in
estimate of incremental
LFP rate
In
to
the Worcester Office of Planning and Community
the region will
words,
arn
As of 1985 there were 252,689 employees working
employment
in
is
1 worker and
Using these
have 2 workers,
Some port ion
of these
"new
employee"
households will
primary
market.
In
demand,
bui lders
arid developers
in
the
to capture some portion of this
order
consider the needs of each
these estimates of demand
demand housing
in
the primary market
household type.
in
the market
In
must
Chapter V,
area will
be compared
to supply over the last several years as measured by the
number
of exist ing housing units and building permits.
(C) Conc 1 us i ons
The
following conclusions can be drawn from the research
and analysis of housing demand discussed above.
1.
Employment
The towns
the primary and secondary markets
in
experienced above average growth rates
in
employment,
average wages and numbers of establishments over the
1980-1985 period.
in
The prosperity was
high technology manufact uring,
stimulated
Declines
in
which,
in
turn,
low tech production and the service sector.
the manufacturing sector overall
by increases in the services.
employment
fueled by growth
in
It
were offset
is likely that
the primary and secondary markets will
experience more moderate growth
housing prices,
a
increased availability
larger
of
and cause a higher growth
70
in
the future,
but
lower
pool of potent ial
employees and
land may attract
new employers
rate in
the North 495/190
area.
2.
Popul at ion
The region experienced
the
but demand
1970-1985 period,
dramat ical
ly
for
housing grew
as the number of households grew
persons-per-household
decl ined.
populat ion entered their
20' s and
age created a demand
condominiums and starter
of the
short
will
market
will
population in
term demand
and the
The baby boom
30' s and the size of
the population over 65 began to grow.
the primary
growth over
population
negligible
Both
shifts
in
for smaller 2-3 bedroom apartments,
hories.
Between now and
have the largest
still
the 25-34 age range,
for starter
units.
1991,
segment
holding up
However,
demand
grow for larger move-up homes and luxury
condominiums as the baby booriers reach the 35-44 age
range and the populat ion over 65 cont inues to increase.
3.
Income
Median household
incomes in
markets grew significantly
the primary and secondary
in
the 1970-1985 period,
ecoinorimic prosperity coupled with high inflation
wages and prices.
to moderate
inflation,
Given the outlook
income growth
slow down over the next 5 years.
At
up
low
continue to
the same time,
percentage of higher earning households in
markets will
drove
for continued
will
as
the two
grow as the 35-44 age group increases.
the
Although a
equity
large
an exist
in
second home
without
afford
number of buyers have substantial
ing house to apply
purchases,
an existing
a
the median
unit
$78,000 house
in
in
to new primary or
income household
the primary market
1986 and a
$100,000
car
one
only
in
1991.
4.
Absorption
Based on three
household
different
growth,
of new housing
is
it
and secondary markets.
units.
to
In
arrive
at
per year
in
demand
the
units.
Irn
it
is
incremental
the primary
car, expect to
for new housing
will
and existing
more precise estimate
in
growth,
generate
these projections
absorption rates
a
3,500
The primary market
portion of this
Chapter V,
historical
units
demand
employment
new employees could
demand of 7,500
capture some
2,300 to
expected
in
3,585
Office of Planning
annrual housing
will approach
by analyzing
estimated that
1,175 to
absorption
projections
by the City of Worcester's
primary market
housing
from
population and
annual
Given, alternative
and Community Development,
addition,
for
estimated that
units will range
the primary market.
generated
scenarios
of future
be compared
supply to
demand.
NOTES TO CHAPTER
IV
Worcester Office of Planning and Community Development,
June 1987 and Lynn
"Economic Base Analysis - Worcester, MA",
E. Browne, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, "The New England
Economy and Banking", March 1987.
I
2 Ben Chinitz, New England Economic Project in con.junction
1987.
with Data Resources, "The Massachusetts Economy",
INC.,
2
"The
1987
INC.
100",
May
1987.
On-Site Insight with Abt Associates, DJK Associates, and
Social Service Planning Corp.,
"Worcester Master Plan", under
auspices of Worcester Planning Board and Worcester City
Counci1, June 1987.
*
5 U. S.
Depart ment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
"Employment and Earnings", April 1987.
6 Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Division of Employment
Security, "Employment Review", March 1987.
7 Worcester Office of Planning and Community Develo pmerint,
"Economic Base Analysis", op. cit.
a U.S.
Statistical
Department of Commerce,
Abstract 1987.
Bureau of the Census,
Bureau of the Census,
* U.S. Department of Commerce,
"Household and Family Characterist ics: March 1985", Series
P-20, No. 411.
1987 in
** Dr. Marc A. Louargand, Lecture of June 11,
"Real Asset Management " at
Professional Development Co'urse,
the Center for Real Estate Development, MIT.
*
Joe Schwartz, "On The Road Again",
Demographics, April 1987.
I*
"Demographic
Forecasts",
American
American Demographics,
March
1987.
This trend is cited in several recent books and articles.
John Herbers, The New Heartland, New York Times Books, Inc.,
1986; Jack Lessinger, "Emerging Region of
Opport unity", Ameri can Demograph ics, June 1987; and Joe
cit;
Richard Louv, America
Schwartz, "On The Road Again", op.
II, J. P.
Tarcher, 1983.
1
3
'4
Thomas G. Exter, American Demographics,
Money Is", March 1987.
73
"Where
The
15 Urban Land Institute,
McCall/Grubb & El1is,
Chapter 2.
Market Profiles
1987, Leggat
Inc.,
"Boston Metropoi1itan Area",
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
1 I U.S.
"Household and Family Characteristics: March 1985", op.
cit.
"Worcester Master Plan",
February 1987.
17
Housing segment,
draft
of
1* Donald W. Chamberlayne, Social Service Planning
Corporation, "A Seller's
Market: Housing in Worcester
1980's", March 1986.
in
Worcester Office of Planning and Community Development,
"Economic Base Analysis", p. 139, Exhibit IV-E.
19
**
Donald W.
Chamberlayne,
op.
74
cit.,
Exhibit 8.
the
V.
(A)
Housing
Existing
According
units
in
one
in
much
the
to
1980.
the 1980 Census,
As shown
114, 395
Table
of multi-family
1980
detached
in
inventory,
17,
units
higher
in
The
market
to
is
of the total
market
in
virtually
the same
inventory
similar
to housing
Massachusetts,
in
in
The differences
detached
in
less
state
the primary
one.
in
one.
the primary
At 6% of
The composition
was actually
1980.
market
the older
of the
Irn
and 51.7% were built
income,
the
very
were owner-occupied,
units,
Over 50%
than 5 years old was
in
the secondary
by the higher median
in
the secondary
the two markets.
the entire
was
dwellings
The stock
units
units
Roughly 70% of the
the primary market
in
one.
83,305 or 72.8% of the
the secondary
53% of the units
were single-family
part
versus
than in
the proport ion Of
larger
or 54.4% were single-family
of owner-occupied
1980 versus 36% in
had a
than the secondary
the primary one.
much older
housing
1950.
and a
stock was more than 30 years old
stock,
the secondary
percentage of owner-occupied
consisted
56% in
also
units
the secondary market.
secondary market
compared
116,032
in
the primary market
units
the primary market
secondary one.
in
in
and
were 213,489 housing
there
smaller proportion of single-family
Of the
total
Stock
primary market
concentration
also
HOUSING SUPPLY
53.7%
before
are explained
average age and
TABLE 17
Distribution of Dwelling Units by Type
Primary and Secondary Markets
1970-1985
Additions to Inventory
Number
Percent
Number
1970-1980
1985
1980
1970
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
1970-1985
1980-1985
Percent
Change
Number
---
Percent
Change
Number
Percent
Change
Primary Market
Single-family
90, 733
52.1%
116,032
54.4%
N.A.
25,299
27.9%
Multi-family
83,288
47.9%
97,457
45.6%
N.A.
14,169
17.0%
229,630
39,468
22.7%
18,704
18.5%
Sub-total
Owner-occupied
Renter-occupied
213,489
174,021
101, 105
58.1%
N.A.
119,809
56.1%
N.A.
81,807
38.3%
N.A.
3,947
Annual Absorption
16,141
7.6%
3,228
55,609
3,707
Secondary Market
Single-family
72,140
77.3%
83,305
72.8%
N.A.
11,165
15.5%
Multi-family
21,130
22.7%
31,090
27.2%
N.A.
9,68
47.1%
Sub-total
93, 270
21,125
22.6%
11, 221
16.3%
Owner-occupied
68,701
Rent er-occupied
N.A.
73.66%
79,922
69.86%
N.A.
31,331
27. 39%
N.A.
2,113
Annual Absorption
SOURCES:
123, 499
114,395
9,104
8.0%
1,821
Massachusetts Municipal Data Bureau, U.S. Census Tabluation of Building Permit Data for Local Government; 1982-1985 permits.
Urban Decision Systems, Inc. 1980 Census figures for housing units.
U.S. Department of Commerce - Bureau of Census, 1970, General Housing Characteristics;
Construction Reoort, 1984, annual issue.
Central Massachusetts Regional Planning Commission, permit data on selected towns for 1981
M.L. Boutweil
76
30,229
2,815
32.4%
the higher education of
its
residents.
Based on the number of residential
issued since 1980,
units in
annual
the housing
the smaller secondary market
units per year to a total
data cannot
this
report
This represents an
1985.
of 2,228 units over the five
absorption
Meanwhile,
inventory had grown to 229,630
by
the primary market
building permits
their
be relied on fully
activity
had grown by
123, 499 in
of
during all
1985.
5 years and
improvements versus new construction.
more complete than the 1981
are excluded from the total,
over the
remaining
Appendix E
is
"Housing Units"
primary
market
than
11 months
4,143 residential
for
11 months.
dramatically
7,304 in
in
in
additions or
information.
If
1982-1985
1981
1981-1985.
The 198£
figures
included in
at
best.
figures are
Census monthly
Only 16 of the 49 towns
the report
and it
in
the
only covers
Some town data is
for fewer
the report.
The data does indicate that
permits were
issued in
Appendix
the last two years,
Table 16
the 16 towns alone
E also shows that
1985 and 4,143 in
As shown in
demand
in
no easy
of building permits by town for the prima
report.
11 months of activity
is
The data for
1986 issue of the U. S.
are
there
the average annual absorption
areas during
from the November
Unfortunately,
four-year period was 3, 274 units.
a list
secondary market
1,821
because some towns didn't
way to determine which permits represented
is
year period.
1986
in
(16
Chapter
from 2,601
towns for
IV,
the primary market ranges from
77
permits have
in
jumped
1984 to
11 months).
estimated housing
1,175 to 3,585
between now and
1990/1
givern the project ions for populat ion
Based on the absorpt ion
growth and average household size.
4-5 year period
the last
estimated
demand
absortion
will
in
as well
Chapter
represent
to
probably overstated
averages
growt h
annual
over the next
in
a decrease
3-4 years.
demand of 1,000 to
This decline
is
because of the problems with the permit
but some tapering off
figures ment ioned earlier,
historical
that
likely
from the level of 1985-1986.
3,000 units
(B)
is
be 3,000 or more units
This appears
income
the conclusions about the
as
it
IV,
in
is
likely
given the
closer to
lower employment
and
project ions.
Recent Sales Activity
Four steps were taken to gain an understanding of recent
sales
in
activity
last few years:
the primary and
First,
Economic Development
County was reviewed
survey undertaken
in
secondary markets over the
data compiled by the Center for
at UMass on sales
and analyzed;
Second,
sales was evaluated;
examined on all
and Tradesman
and Fourth,
were reviewed
Service
in
transactions
the results of a
in
on value,
using information
deed transfer data was
each town compiled from Banker
Real
Estate Data Publishing;
type and location of sales
from the Multiple Listing
Middlesex and Worcester Counties.
78
Regional
firm with an estimated 20%
Third,
by a private firm,
statistics
Northern Worcester
1986 by the Montachusett
Planning Commission and a brokerage
of market
in
The study completed by the CEED
sales
in
land
in
that area
all
classified
2,300 units sold,
and
15% as
included in
the mlti-family/single
From this
single-family
at
the average sale price
Of the total
units are
study,
units in
it
If
the multi-family
appears that
50% of the total
units.
in
in
The Northern
The results of this
Table 18.
79
the
the 3 bedroom category,
Worcester County study area includes 22 towns,
area.
growing
Furthermore,
single-family transactions.
the primary market
is
the proportion of
the existing housing stock is
a faster rate than multi-family
outlined
75%
multi-family.
family breakdown
largest concentrat ion of sales is
in
If
under the assumption that they are condominiums or
townhouses,
35%/65%.
there were
1986 that averaged $116,300.
as single-family
the 2 bedroom
listing
in
sales are excluded,
increases to $123,200.
were
UMASS on residential
Northern Worcester County reported that
2,300 sales
the 230
at
of which
18 are
study are
TABLE
18
Residential Sales in 1986
Northern Worcester County
Bedrooms
Number
Percent
of Sales
of
Average
Total
Price
373
870
403
78
22%
50%
23%
5%
$87,664
$121,338
$156,953
$166,764
1724
100%
$124, 432
Multi-Family
Land
Single-Family
348
230
1724
15%
10%
75%
$116,972
$54,000
$124,432
All
2302
100%
$116,312
2
4
5
Total SingleFamily
Sales
SOURCE:
Center for Economic Development,
Multiple Listing
Service, statistics
UMass
by town
Ashburnham, Ashby,
Northern Worcester County towns:
Athol, Ayer, Bolton, Fitchburg, Gardner, Groton, Harvard,
Hubbardston, Lancaster, Leominster, Lunenburg, Pepperell,
Royalston, Shirley, Templeton,
Petersham, Phillipston,
Winchendon.
West mi nster,
Townsend,
In
1987 The Montachusett
early
Commission
and a
20% of the
1986 residential
Table 3
Chapter
this
in
investigation.
Fitchburg,
these
local
four towns,
Although
growing
sales
units
firm completed
in
in
a
a
survey of
the MRPC planning
440
in
accounted
for
and Westminster totalled
single-family
sales
sold versus condominiums
from
units
1986.
Ir
only 27%
which made up 68%.
appears
broader region of the primary market,
80
region.
the four towns of Leominster,
the proportion of single-family
in
Planning
shows some of the data gathered
Sales
Gardner
of the total
II
brokerage
Regional
to be
the MRPC
data
indicates that
is
which demand
much
there is
higher for condominiums than
units.
single-family
Real
transfer
Inc.
Data Publishing,
Estate
reports
or
sales
in
compiles
in
each town
monthly
using
Massachusetts
data from the Banker and Tradesman.
The 1986 and
Reviews"
Counties were analyzed
for Middlesex
learn more about
primary
and Worcester
the nature of recent
and secondary market areas.
informat ion is
in
included
that commercial
the
figures,
in
the absolute dollar
price terrain
number
in
Dover,
figures,
In
According
the
sales are
the volume and
addition the figures
In
Needham,
and Wellesley,
in
F lists
Appendix
each town
the primary
which averaged $155,536 during
but
lot
in
during 1986 using the "County
data,
in
to
spite of the inaccuracy of
the market areas.
to this
fewer sales,
activity
"County
the data does show the relative
and average sales price
secondary market
and
sales
the data.
1987
The problem with the
unit sales.
for the Norfolk County towns,
included
sales
thereby distorting
average prices of housing
are not
in
close to Wachusett
a submarket
market
1986.
had
the total
the primary and
Review"
data.
15,522 sales
The secondary market
at an average price of $294,101,
had
almost 90%
higher than the primary market.
An examination of multiple
all
listing
single family sales for the towns
secondary markets reveals a 71%
two areas
in
1986.
service
in
(MLS)
data on
the primary and
price differential
between the
According to the MLS data,
3,065 single family sales averaging $144,071
there were
in the primary
market
and 3,096 sales averaging $246,386
market
in
but
is
it
likely
fai ly
properties
markets during
in
each town
1986.
to create Figure 8,
distribut
research.
The
in
the primary
information
a "price terrain"
ion of different
in
listed
G
Appendix
single
price of all
number arid average selling
the total
single
some sales were
that
with MLS regions not covered by this
lists
the secondary
The MLS data covers 80-85% of all
1986.
family sales,
in
and secondary
Appendix
G was used
map showing the
price ranges across the two
markets.
Table
19 summarizes average
resident ial
sales
multi-family)
in
quarter and full
Region
is
(including condominiums,
the different
year 1986.
townhouses,
MLS regions during the fourth
The Greater
the regions,
Worcester County
while the Central
the secondary market.
There
the average sales prices of $125,955
is
in
Middlesex one best
a 90% spread
Middlesex one.
between
the Greater Worcester
County Region and the average figure of $239,290
Central
and
probably the closest approximation of the primary
market among
reflects
prices and the volume of all
in
the
FIGURE 8
PRICE TERRAIN MAP
--------
*
r
-j
.ic~~c
U
--e
c--
eee..e
e
--
-
c
a.,..,.y
A
2\e$4,
a
b
8
/T
e
--
b c
c....
d-O-C'
"-
KEY
es
+
--
200
eC == $400,9000$0
-
5 0+ a0
V-.
- -,
dI
00
-c-
1 c01
~:
----
-'-
.........
-
-
000
= Under $100$00
g*
-
go
MIL
TABLE 19
Residential Market - Average Price Comparisons - 19%
Multiple Listing Service Regions
Fourth Quarter 1986
Full Year 1986
19/31/86 - 12/31/86
1/31/86 - 12/31/86
Number
Average
Sold
Price
Northern Worcester
County Region
551
$128,888
Central Middlesex
County Region
733
$246,449
Greater Worcester
County Region
Greater Boston MLS
3879
$201,071
Number
Sold
Average
Price
2943
$239,290
1771
$125,955
8326
$213,668
Northern Worcester County Region includes 35 towns, a portion of New Hampshire
and a category called 'Other. Of the 35 towns, 28 are in the primary market.
Asmall number of sales included in the data are commercial and land sales, which
deflates the average slightly.
Central Middlesex County Region includes 34 towns, 13 in the secondary market and
11 in the primary market. All sales are residential.
Greater Worcester County Region includes 32 towns with 25 in the primary market.
sales are residential.
All
Greater Boston MS Region includes 98 towns and an "Other" category. Of the total 12 are
in the primary market and 16 are in the secondary one. The balance are towns east of the
secondary market, closer to Boston. All sales are residential sales.
SOURCES: Northern Worcester County Multiple Listing Service (MS)
Central Middlesex County MS
Greater Boston KS, Greater Boston Real Estate Board.
Greater Worcester County MS
Foster and Foster Realtor offices in Newton, Acton, Southborough, MA.
I.L. Boutwell, W.Swiacki
Brendan Tivman
in
Development
Community
the Worcester Office of Planning and
also did a price comparison of single
family and condorminiurms sales between Worcester,
early 1987.
in
and Boston
Framingham
Table 20 below outlines his
results:
TABLE 20
Average Sales Prices of Residential
Units in 1986
Single Family
Condominiums
Worcester
$128,000
$81,000
Framingham
$180,000
$125,000
Boston
$193,000
$143,000
SOURCES:
Figures derived from graph of Brendan Tivman's in
the Worcester Office of Planning and Community Development.
Tivman's
selling
figures reflect
a 40% differential
prices and a 54% one in
Worcester
in
condominium
single family
prices between
and Framingham.
An analysis of all new housing units was done by
compiling a
list
of single family and condominium sales
reported
by MLS between January
towns
the markets.
in
This list
1 is
July 8,
1987 in
selected
included as Appendix
H.
Although this list does not include every sale in the primary
market,
it
of 1987,
bedrooms,
$215,293.
is
a representative
sample.
During the first half
the average new single family house sold had 3
2 baths,
almost
Meanwhile,
1,000 square feet,
2,000 square feet of space and cost
the average condominium had just
2 bedroorms,
1.5 baths and cost
over
$113,763.
Of the 103 total single family sales, 52% were 4 bedroom
85
houses,
37% were 3 bedrooms and
condominium sales,
32 sales or 84% were 2 bedroom
price of all
average
during
$187,930
10% were 2 bedrooms.
an indication
the total
of how often
residential
property
sales in
in
1985.
housing
were
Total
in
sales in
in
17 shows,
property
primary market.
there
Assuming the
constant from
128,822 in
units amounted to roughly
1986 as reported
is
is
the primary market
by the "County
15,522 indicating that the turnover rate
other words,
It
as a percentage of
1980.
level remained relatively
owner-occupied
area
Census 56.8% of the total
units were owner-occupied
1980-1985,
1985.
to the U.S.
the market
transferred.
As Table
229,630 housing units
According
owner-occupancy
is
the market
the owner-occupied housing units.
were approximately
was
period.
The turnover rate of the housing stock in
is
The
units.
the primary market
new units in
this
Of the
transferred
Since these figures
is
Review"
12%.
In
once every 8 years
include lot
in
the
and
commercial transfers as well as residential sales, the
turnover rate is
probably closer to 10%.
The permit
data in
Table 17 indicates that the primary market absorbed an average
of 3200 new
units annually over the
1980-1985 period.
Since
new units generally comprise roughly 20% of total sales, the
estimate of absorption
reasonable.
1986 were
If
the 2,600-3,200 range appears
single family sales reported
The total
3065.
in
this
figure is
estimate of condominium/townhouse
the
basis of a 50/50 split
as well
86
by MLS
in
increased to allow for an
and multi-family sales on
as for
sales which were riot
by the MLS regions contacted,
listed
(C)
sales are estimated
Competitive
Residential Developments
inventory of currently selling
projects in
market
1986
at closer to 12,000
residential
A partial
the total
the Wachusett
areas
is
-
13,000.
residential
Mountain primary and secondary
presented as Appendix
This was compiled by
I.
reviewing the Sunday Boston Globe and the Sunday Worcester
Telegram advertisements over a 3 week period
in
June and July
1987 and through discussions with Joe O'Brien at Wachusett
local
brokers in
reveals that
the area.
An examination of the listings
there are a sizeable number of 3-4 bedroom single
family units on the market
in
the primary
single family on the market has 2300 SF,
and sells
for
SF
Worcester
in Hudson
price unit
The average
3 bedrooms,
Prices range from $75 SF in
(Stonegate:
(Brigham
Hill
$149,900)
Estates:
to $154
$199,900).
2.2 baths
or $133
SF. The lowest
1,000 SF house for $129,900 or $130
a 2,000 SF
SF
for
The highest
price is for a
SF at Pierce Farms
The majority of offerings are
1,300
(The Clearings)
is a 7,500 SF house in Princeton
which costs $1,000,000
Fitchburg.
area.
$254,500 or $220,000 when the few $1,000,000
units are excluded.
house in
and
in
in
the
$150,000-250,000 range and include 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths.
The highest
absorption rates in
(2.7 units per month),
Stonegate
87
the market
are at Brigham Hill
(2.7 units per month)
and
Legate Estates
in
(2.8 units per month).
Le:mirister
Two developments on Route 62 between
Sterling,
The Clearings
and Pheasant
Princeton and
Hollow at Snow Pond are
targeted at the higher end of the market.
consists of
12 houses with 4-5 bedrooms,
The Clearings
7-8 acre
car garages clustered around a common wooded area
center.
This development
September
lots
of
1986
sited on a pond.
4 per month
is
(8
Pheasant Hollow
for
Pheasant Hollow has 14
lots
have sold at a rate of
lots are sold)
indicating that
course and two which offer
of the single family projects offer
Auburn which
in
water
frontage,
recreational
include boat
that
trails
or fitness
centers.
unit on the market
$1,200,000 unit),
Pointe Rok Estates
amenities.
sells
tennis courts,
slips,
for $164,348
$1,200,000.
jogging
has 1,550 SF,
(excluding a single
2 bedrooms
and The Lakeshore offer
in
Worcester
and 2 baths.
the most extensive
and are targeted
both empty nesters and professionals working
of the market
pools,
the
The average condominium/townhouse
Both projects are
on Route 495.
none
amenities.
There are several townhouse and condominium projects in
market
there
on water.
larger lots
With the exception of one development
abuts a golf
the
the $125,000-200,000 range for 3-5 acres
of the 14
strong demand
in
and 3
has only sold 2 houses since
(monthly rate of .4).
land only in
lots
in
The Lakeshore units are aimed at
with prices starting at
Worcester or
the high end
$275,000 and going
up to
The Pointe Rok units are priced at
$165,000-$260,000,
close to the price of the average single
88
at
family
units
The project with the highest
the market.
in
absorption rate on the market
units monthly)
tennis,
pool,
Meadow
in
in
Shrewsbury
Worcester
prices at
with units
jogging
Ridgefield
is
in
($169,000-$189,000)
(7.8
and
$128,000-$173,000
and bicycling available
($167,900-$225,900)
Clinton
on site.
South
and Salisbury
have the next
Green
highest
absorption rates with 5.5 and 5 units per mrionth respectively.
Although
the sample size is
small,
single family projects are priced
at
a minimum
$50,000-$100,000 more than comparable
market.
The Wright
in
the
primary
project
in
the market.
is
the
Units
at $510,000 for a 4 bedroom house with common ownership
of tennis courts,
riding
trails
is
a pool,
and horse stables.
surround the development.
Hitching Post
495)
units
of
Farm condominium home development
most recreationally-oriented
start
the secondary market
Estates project
in
Hiking and
The low end of the
Westford
(right
off
Route
priced close to the high end of the single-family
projects
in
$253,000,
the primary market with
but
it
offers more amenities and
$550,000.
The development
trails
ponds for its
and
averaged
prices starting
prices go up to
includes bridle paths,
residents.
in
September 1986.
Excluding the single $1,200,000 condominium
there is
secondary market
and most
the two market
units range in
the
areas.
In
the
price from $77,500 to $255,000
include tennis courts and pools.
89
in
between the
a $30,000 differential
average condominium prices in
hiking
Monthly absorption has
5 houses since sales commenced
primary market,
at
The Hildreth Hills
project
in
of
and
land
Westford
sells
includes larger townhouse units,
in
the $300,000-$350,000 range.
the project has sold well
experienced
Hicks Company,
problems
developer,
development.
its
Ralph Simpson of the
developer encounterd
the initial
when the market
Although
Hildreth Hills
last year,
was unable to support the
volume of units and cover substant ial
ial
init
the
problems early in
to the current
According
Robert
financial
in
216 acres
large
up-front
infrastruct ure costs.
(D) Conc 1 us i ons
Research
on the supply side of the market
indicates the
following:
1.
Existing Stock
The exist ing stock in
the primary market
is
older and
the percentage of owner-occupied units is
low compared
to the secondary market,
This
in
part,
54.4% vs.
to the higher median
73%.
income,
better education of the popuilation
in
is
due,
older age and
the secondary
market.
2.
Average Sales Prices
An analysis of sales activity
the following average prices in
market:
90
in
1986 and
1987
the primary
indicates
-
All
sales
1986:
$116,312
New
units
1987: $187,930
All
single
family sales
1986:
$124,432
New single
family sales
1987:
$215,293
1986: $81,000 -
condominiums
All
New condominiums 1987:
There appears to be a much
greater
3.
is
estimated that demand
growing
than demand
faster
broad region of the market;
Leominster,
Fitchburg,
price differential
the two markets
to Wachusett.
for multi-family
however,
Gardner
The distribution
units
in
in
indicates
submarket
that
of sales in
close
1986
for 3 bedroom single
family houses.
A survey of new unit sales in
73% were single
family and 27% condominium
1987 shows
units.
and Absorption
Turnover
The housing stock in
the primary market
turns
over once
8-10 years versus the national
average of 5-7
year there were roughly
13,000-15,000
years.
buyers
new sales
a
a study of
and Westminster
demand was highest
that
indicates
every
($50,000
for single family units is
for condominiums
strong demand
4.
$87,000
of Sales
Distribution
It
$144,071
($30,000).
than condominiums
$100,000)
-
$113, 763.
between single family units in
-
$125,955
Last
in
the market.
Based on a 20% rule-of-thumb
versus total
sales
and the average
permit
for
between
volume
3,200
On the basis of an inventory of
new units.
projects on the market,
residential
highest absorption rate
pool,
in
tennis,
5-7 units
past,
the 2-3 bedroom condominium
.jogging or bicycling trails.
are bought
by empty-nesters or young
working
Worcester
in
the product with the
the recent
annually is
monthly or 60-84
with
these buyers absorbed roughly
1982-1985,
professionals
or or, Route 495.
The highest
absorpt ion rate for single family units in
the market
was 2.7-2.8 units per month or 32-33 annually.
typical
2.5
house in
baths and
these developments
1,800-2,300 SF.
amenities offered
in
Princeton
of
is
lots
The
3-4 bedroom with
There are no recreational
with these single families.
3-5 acre
They
of
land on a
A project
pond
private
subdivided for single family houses has sold at an
absorption rate of 4 per month,
the most
market.
compet it
almost
30% faster than
ive single family developments
in
the
VI.
(A)
Market
COMPOSITION OF FUTURE DEMAND
Segments
Some research or
shown that
it
residential
property acquisition has
primarily the social characteristics of a
is
neighborhood which distinquish a desirable community from art
undesirable one.
The
there.'
buyers in
The first
important
key is
determining
in
socioeconomic groups.
buyers of housing
match
income distribut
Several
ma.jor
in
this
is
the future acceptance by different
order to determine the composit ion
Wachusett
a profile
Mountain,
of the most
profile
against the projected
it
likely
and
a recreationally-oriented community
age and
ion of the population.
studies have shown that
predictor of recreational
Market
but who
there,
a new community may be the most
identify
necessary to first,
second,
is
for primary homes at
of future demand
is
In
not what
Opinion Research,
a person's age
part ici
pat ion.
is
the
1986,
During
a private consult ing firm
in
Detroit,
undertook a research study for the President's Commission or
Americans
Outdoors.'
ten
of
parts
adults aged
adults car
The research
the country
18 and older.
and a
included 20 focus groups
nat ionwide survey
of
2, 000
The study concluded that American
be divided into five
different
groups on the
of the motivations which drive them to participate
activities.
in
Participation by each of the five
93
in
groups
basis
outdoor
in
35
the
"Excitement-Seeking
Actives"
bicycling,
tennis,
"excitement-seeking
competitives"
between
as very important
groups to sail,
skiing.
play tennis and go downhill
They share the social
are baby boomers.
mot ivat ion with the excitement-seekers,
competition
but
they shun
They work hard and
and risk-taking.
play hard,
using recreation as a way to reduce stress and get
are more
canoe.
likely
Although
than other groups to backpack,
these two
groups are likely
number as the baby boomers age and smal ler
cohorts replace them,
active.
than
They are more likely
golf,
swim,
like
they also
away actives are older with a median age of 35.
Get
Nearly half
and competition
reasons for recreation,, but
the social and fitness aspects.
other
Two-thirds are men and
They value excitement
45% are young singles.
of the five
than 40% were born
baby boomers.
i.e.,
1946-1961,
The
are the youngest
More
groups with a median age of 32.
and winter
water sports,
and sledding).
skating,
Away
golf,
rates in
participation
horseback riding,
(skiing,
sports
and the "Get
Competitives"
had the highest
groups,
Two of the five
was measured.
activities
recreational
their
Many excitement
members will
seekers could
away.
hike,
They
carilp and
to shrink
in
18-24 arid 25-35 age
probably remain
become get
away
actives.
In
1965 and
Recreat ion
1982 the Census Bureau conducted Nat ional
Surveys.
They
indicate
to more act ive recreat ion since
that
1965.
there has been a shift
Ski ing,
sail
ing and
.jogging are the gainers and picnicking and pleasure driving
94
the losers.
In
addition,
pate more
45-64 and 65+ partici
Meanwhile,
1960's.
have decreased,
tennis,
but
the older age groups,
recreation than in
in
rates for
the participation
the share of the grcoup that
camp and ski has doubled since
participation
1965.
from 3% to 9% in
the 45-64 group.
the most
the 25-44 cohort
in
participation
and
The
active sports like
it
skiing and
completed
for
tennis,
Married
a household
likely
overall
in
all.
Hull,
unit
a "country-club
suggest
especially among
development
style
life
with
Spinnaker
a place to get
away
Island said "Coming
home
Chapter IV,
the
As discussed
in
area
grow 35% between 1986 and
95
or no
little
developments like
population pro.jections for the primary market
the 25-45 group will
the age
developments recent ly show
One buyer at Spinnaker
4
more
Market ing st ud ies
that people want
going or, vacation."
in
size over the next several
The acceptance of recent
upkeep".
that
that
the 25-44 age group or
participation
act i ve recreat ion.
several planned
buyers want
like
in
supports the concept of a resident ial
or i ent ed around
is
1% to 3%
appears that the most
increased
groups expected to increase in
it
from
for a recreationally-oriented primary home community
the 44-65 group.
from
the 18-24
recreation.2
are college graduates with children
Island
play
The other finding of the surveys is
From the research above,
that
bicycle,
active participants are the best educated.
increase adult
years,
those under 25
15% in
people are as active as singles and children in
targets
the
The
rate for skiing rose from 8% to
age group,
in
peo:ple in
indicate
1991.
The
proport ion of
In
the 35-44 group.
in
the 25-34 cohort
addition,
age group also has the highest
for housing
for
in
(25-34)
site.
to constitute the biggest demand
The 25-45 group includes the
must
This
buyers.
have housing
market
"starter
Consequent ly,
the
product types to appeal
groups.
During
resident ial
gathered
the past.
income and earning capacity.
and and the "move-up"
proposed development
to both
likely
in
the primary market and the best target
the Wachusett
home"
is
larger
the older baby boom
generat ion appears to be moving more than
This 25-45 segment
is
which has a higher concentrat ion
the secondary market,
than in
in
the primary market
the course of compiling the
inventory of
pro.jects currently on the market,
informat ion was
on the buyers of single family and condominium
pro.jects at the present time.
The majority of single family
buyers are 30-45 year old professionals working
Route 495 towns,
buyers trading
in
or Fitchburg/Leoriminster.
equity
in
in
Worcester,
Most are move-up
exist ing houses or condominiums to
The corindominium buyers
acquire a 3-4 bedroom single family.
are either younger professionals 25-34 years old or
empty-nesters 50-70.
The pro.jects with the highest
(Ridgefield and South Meadow)
working
or
Route 495 or east.
both
Both
sell
to young couples
projects include pools,
tennis courts and other outdoor recreational
96
absorpt ion
facilities.
(B) Afffordable Housing
The analysis of projected
in
incomes
the primary market
income household,
area shows that the median
without
equity in
a previous property,
can afford a house which costs $78,000
today and $99,000 in
1991,
the primary market
units in
resident ial
and $144,071
was between $116, 312
The average resale price of
1986.
in
yet the average resale price of all
condominiums was between $81,000 and $87,000,
newly constructed one sold for $113,763
in
have equity from an existing
the market
market
primary
over the next four years
the 25-34 age cohort,
for
demand
age range,
years,
part icularly
Since many
($125, 000 -
expected that
$200, 000).
expected to be
in
Buyers
the
in
the
in
be strong
there will
low to
the older 65+
also expected to grow over the next
is
which
might
is
houses and condominiums
starter
moderate range
is
it
property or another
proport ion of the populat ion in
Since the largest
source.
six
the first
a large number of buyers
This suggests that
months of 1987.5
in
the average
but
few
seek these more affordable units as well,
if
they have purchased a second home
buyers
in
Florida.
be unable to afford more
the market will
than the $100,000 unit,
in
some of these should be built
into the
proj ect.
Furthermore,
housing
local
issue will
public officials.
there are
become
indicat ions that
important
increasingly
As stated
97
the affordable
in
to state
the Economic Base
and
Analysis Report of June 1987 by the Worcester
Planning and Community
crisis
in
Development,
In
firms will
housing
for employees.
lower-priced starter
public officials,
$125,000
ent ire
order to meet market
who might
the
demand
for
to pressure from
otherwise delay or deny required
incorporate some units
in
the $100, 000 -
feasible within the structure of the
financially
project.
in
to provide affordable housing for
employees and to respond
WMA should
if
In
houses,
Wachusett
approvals,
be
be attracted to areas with affordable
region,
potential
labor shortage
of the projected
light
the City might
prospects for employment
the key to enhancing the City's
growth". 6
"finding a solution to the
of housing in
the affordability
Office of
increasing pressure both within
be
There will
the towns and from the state of Massachusetts to provide
affordable housing
in
towns
The analysis of projected
the median
shows that
which
equity
like
the primary market
incomes in
in
area
income household car, afford a house
costs $78,000 today and $99,000 in
1991,
unless there
an existing home to apply to the purchase price.
The project
will
need to design and
incorporate some units in
This will
the $100,000-$125,000 range.
likelihood
Westminster and Princeton.
and t iming of approvals,
need.
98
but
not
only improve the
also meet
a market
is
(C) Conc 1 us i
1.
ons
Active Recreation
Participants in
Since
1965,
the U.S.
population has shifted toward
more active recreation.
Participation
in
sports
ski ing and tennis has increased part icularly
25-44
age
groups,
group.
In
people
in
45-64 and 65+ participate more
recreation now than
in
the
1960's.
among the
the older
in
College-educated
families with children are most
part ici
in
pate
Outdoor recreat ion.
Involvement
to
is
Ho:using Component
The discrepancy between the median
the market
household
Furthermore,
receive and apply
in
the $100,000 -
government
in
.
In
addition the decline in
that
the current
labor shortage problem
will
get
Affordable
growth
in
housing will
as well as to local employers
Wachusett.
99
likely
to
to encourage
18-24 age group and pro.jected employment
worse.
$125, 000
are
officials
increasing pressure
affordable housing
the region,
income
and the average sales prices indicates demand
"affordable housing"
range.
likely
for single males with an average age of 32-35.
Affordable
for
age
active
singles and
highest
2.
addition,
like
the
suggests
the region
be important
like
to
3.
Market
Segments
Based on recent
act ivity
sales
brokers and developers,
outlined
a)
and
demand
by market
segment
is
below:
Single Households and Young Families
The largest
market,
segment
of the populat ion in
17.46% will
be in
likely
to
be the two-income
A large subset
household.
be a strong source of demand
the Wachusett
in
1991.
homes and condominiums
with recreational amenit ies.
group will
the primary
the 25-34 age cohort
These are the buyers of starter
b)
discussions with
of this
This group is
for housing at
pro.ject.
Move-Up Buyers
Buyers moving
up from other homes or condominiums
account
large port ion of the demand
for
a
family units.
The majority are 30-45 years old arid are
professionals working
or on Route 495.
interests in
in
exist ng
can afford their
(provided there are buyers who
This
has the highest
arid 17. 16% in
Indications are that this
the strongest
large equity
is
the age group
median
income,
to constitute 15.42% of the population
the primary market
1991.
Leominster/Fitchburg
propert ies into the purchase of
starter homes).
which moves the most,
pro.jected
Worcester,
They are able to convert
larger 3-4 bedroom ho:uses
is
for single
demand
for
in
the secondary market
group will
by
represent
the proposed
recreat ionally-oriented development
100
and
at
Wach usett.
This
group
c)
is
also the
market
largest
fror second homes.
Empt y-nest ers
This group of buyers in
act ive
in the higher end of the condominium market
to Worcester.
population
attract
the 55-64 and 65+ age ranges,
ive
in
This group will
1991
and is
likely
recreational
101
close
constitute 23% of the
to view Wachusett
location for a ret irement
with the proposed
is
home,
amenities.
as an
part icularly
NOTES TO CHAPTER VI
Ann B. Shlay, Urban Studies, "Taking Apart the
American Dream: The Inf1uence of Income and Family Composit ion
on Resident ial
Eval uat ions", 1986.
One interest ing find ing of
her survey of 169 families in Orondega County, N.Y.
(City of
Syracuse and surrounding metropolitan area) in 1982 is
that high income respondents care little
about the amount of
travel time to work.
Only the middle income respondents with
and withCut
children
were
They expressed preference
a Barbara E.
Excitement",
2 John P.
Boom?",
concerned about
for
Bryant, American
March 1987.
Robinson,
March 1987.
commuting
time.
commutes of 30 minutes or
Demographics,
American Demographics,
Carol Vogel, The New York Times Magazine,
for Leisure", June 28, 1987.
4
" Built
less.
for
"Where' s The
"Clustered
5 Worcester Office of Planning and Community Development,
"Economic Base Analysis", June 1987.
6 See Chapter V, sect ion on recent
o, these average sales figures.
102
sales act ivity
for sources
VII.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
(A) Conc 1 us i ons
From
an analysis of housing demand and supply,
estimated that
new housirng
this
the primary market
units annually.
it
is
can absorb 2,600-3,200
The following findings
lead to
conclusion:
1)
Project ions of populat ion in
indicate a demand
2)
Independent
for new housing units of 1, 175-3,585.
populat ion pro.ject ions for the City of
Worcester est imate annual
to demand
market,
in
the primary market
demand of 975 units,
the 2, 300-3, 500 range in
given the historical
housing units in
point ing
the ent ire
relationship
primary
between the
the City and the rest of the
are a.
3)
Projected
demand
incremental
7, 200
for another
secondary markets,
captured
employment could
units in
generate
the primary and
some portion of which wi11
be
the primary
by new developments
in
rates in
of 10-12% (8-10 years),
market.
4)
Turnover
recent
that
roughly
is
sales of 13,000-15,000 units a year and the fact
new units generally comprise roughly 20% of total
sales,
It
the market
also support
the absorpt ion est imate of
3,000 new units annually.
reasonable to assume that
103
a residential
development
at
market
a pro.ject
or
WMA can expect
of
builder
in
the state of Massachusetts
The top 5%
constructs 15-30 units per year.
according to recent research
In
industry. I
with more than one builder,
the amenities.
$80, 000-$100, 000
the
level
An 18-hole
cdnstruction capacity should
premium that
:f
and
golf course is
can be charged
on the extent
In
order to arrive at a
to another $3,000,000.
project
ion of how riany units are needed to support a
with site
supply
infrastucture costs could easily
be built,
amount
development
total.0
in
of any ground water
and size
for
at
estimated
per hole or $1, 800, 000-$8, 000, 000
which must
facility
but
WMA may need to contract
be constrained by both the site
pro.ject will
amenity costs arid
Depending
homebuilding
the state's
problem.
pose a
The
or
100 or
build
order to build the 85-110 units a year which
appears able to absorb,
the market
not
type of
this
the primary market.
in
The average
more,
they had a
such as Wachusett
but there are no examples of
Mountain offers,
pro.ject
amenities,
recreational
the
possible that
would absorb more single family units if
level
high
is
It
single family houses each year.
market
the
60-80 condominiums and/or 25-33
is
sell
to
in
the most
that
indicates
basis
by project
or 150-300
absorption
the survey of current
however,
units a year;
absorption,
capture 5-10% of this
could
Wachusett
premium costs of $5,000,000,
necessary
to determine how much can be charged
increased
amenity package.
A recent
104
it
for the
seminar on Resort
is
views on a golf
Planning and Design suggested that
roughly $20
per square foot
the average
unit
1,500-2,000 SF,
is
enhance the pro.ject
analysis,
on this
the project
golf course,
riding
trails,
package which
ski
also a lake,
resort,
on the
level of est imated
infrastructure cost,
Plan for WMA may not
insufficient to support the infrastructure,
in
the pro.ject.
absorpt ion in
the market,
period.
single families)
represent
in
If
Given the est imated
plan should
this
80 units
are built
even without
an affordable component
if
and part icularly
course,
be
146 units which may be
The plan recommends
feasible.
3-4 year
unit premium
mass to support the
1 of the Preliminary Development
included
hiking and
infrastructure.
Depending
golf
The
includes not
increase the per
and reduce the critical
required
Plan
but
Based
mass of 125-167
expenses of $5,000,000.
and tennis could
significantly
you assume
the golf course should
needs a critical
of an amenity
only a
If
ret urn by $30, 000-$40, 000 per unit.
units to support the up-front
cumulative effect
ing price. 2
to sell
course add
(50
year,
is
annual
be phased over a
townhouses and
the first
the
30 of the 96
the pro.ject will
only 2.7% of the estimated 3,000 absorption capacity
the market.
Plan 2 appears to have the crit
support significant
include a golf
mass necessary to
This plan doesn't
up-front expenses.
between
course and has a 55%/45% split
townhouses arid single family houses.
single
ical
If
70 townhouses and
the pro.ject
family units are built,
105
will
represent a
30
85-110 unit
Plan 3
absorption of other pro.jcets in
The unit
and 985 units.
sports,
project
75% townhouse
represent
potential
phased over a
If
10-12 year
roughly 3.5% of annual
brokers,
housing market
resident ial
A
could
development
results
analysis and discussion with
the following
developers and planning officials,
recommendat ions can be offered
Unit
characteristics,
upon a review of the site
of the regional
regarding
at Wachusett
the proposed
Mountain:
Mix
large proportion of the units developed on the property
be 2-3 bedroom condom i n i ums/t ownhouses
single family houses
and
is
Recommendat ions
Based
1.
proposed
the primary market.
absorpt ion in
(B)
will
for water
facility
infrastructure costs and
be charged.
premiums which might
the
mix
access
The feasibility of this plan
single family.
cluster
depends on the required
period,
course,
11% estate single family and
25% single family with only
the rest
of a
and development
given the
the market.
includes the construct ion of a golf
to Lake Wachusett
The
absorption.
should be phased over a 5-8 year period
project
and
market
primary
3.3% capture of the total
beyond will
largest segment
(30%).
Although
be concentrated
in
future demand
in
the move-up market
of the population reaches 35-44,
106
or starter
(40%)
1991
as the
the 25-34
In
dominate the market over the near term.
still
group will
low maintenence
addition the smaller,
Given the
expected to increase as well.
is
65+ group, which
discrepancy between the median
to the
appeal
units will
the area and the
incomes in
average sale prices as well as the success of projects with
this
the market
product
in
demand
for
unmet
smaller affordable units
$100,000-$175,000
in
the
range.
The higher development
densities afforded
by
be necessary given the
construction will
mi.ltiple-family
there appears to be
(Ridgefield),
parts of the property.
Clustered
single family units should
receive strong market acceptance with the open space,
maintenence and common recreat iona1
but
family
units.
townhouses will
the buyers of the starter homes and
generate demand
for the
larger move-up units
Roughly 30% of the project
years later.
the
greater with single
appears significantly
Finally,
in
between the primary
also the price differential
and secondary market
3-5
the market.
only have the 3 bedroom single families sold well
market,
low
amenit ies proving
to the professionals in
attractive
particularly
Not
on many
or, buildable area due to the steep terrain
limitations
could consist of
4 bedroom single family units to appeal to the move-up market.
unit types could
The different
designed to appeal to the different
villages
socioeconomic
to
the move-up
there
be clustered
if
groups.
market,
in
separate
targeted
The Princeton address would appeal most
so the larger
possible.
107
units should
be located
Ranges and Market
Price
2.
success,
To assure market
a
the primary market
in
those prevailing
to
on the level
premium depending
A preliminary
project.
median
appropriate
price
units
can be priced with a
amenity costs.
up-front
be targeted
pricing
devised,
suggests an
units
family
The more expensive single
premium and absorb more of
larger
Condo miniums and townhouses might
category.
"affordable"
research should
be done on the
product
of premium to charge different
amount
types.
Land Development
WMA might
consider acting as a
land developer
a builder of some port ion of the proposed
has a strong
Snow Pond
lots
suggest that there
is
in
obtaining the
strong demand
of the
for larger
amenities.
subdivide the lots,
108
WMA
The quick turnover
with views or potential recreational
could obtain the approvals,
rather than
development.
advantage over other developers
required approvals for the pro.ject.
lots
in
Before a pricing
willingness to pay for certain premiums and the correct
3.
with
the
in
included
the $125,000-$175,000 range with a portion
in
the $100,000-$125,000
schedule is
correspond
family detached
for single
be $170,000-$240,000.
price
that
upon completion
of amenities
review of market
might
the
recommended
is
it
family and multiple family units
for single
ranges
Orientation
WMA
construct the
major roads and ground water supply system,
then sell
the
In
move-up higher end of the market.
cover
WMA could
way,
this
higher
larger density,
costs with the
infrastructure
arid
make most sense of the
This strategy might
or developers.
needed,
to other builders
with design restrictions
lots
if
volume townhouses and cluster single families and leave the
many of whom are zeroed
there are strong
dominate
in
the move-up market
to trade up
the ability
to sell
incories,
lots
is
than the rate of single family units in
4.
it
dependent
may become more
Furthermore,
the starter home.
absorpt ion rate of the Snow Pond
is
will
Given the discrepancy
art existing house.
between median sales prices and
Although
segment.
market
this
or
in
indications that
the future,
on the sale of
difficult
units to other developers,
on the higher cost
marketing risk
the
running 30% higher
the market.
Phasing Schedule
A phasing schedule should be based
or
art annual
absorption of 25-30 single family units and 60-80
condo //towtnhouses.
A building
attached and detached
units at various price ranges will
appeal to a larger number
best market
In
program offering a mix of
of market
test and the shortest
segments,
possible buildout
order to capture the greatest value,
more expensive units should
be held off
phases of the development.
In
109
this
assuring the
way,
period.
many of the larger,
the market
until
later
WMA can maximize the
benefit
of
increased appreciat ion of the pro.ject
pricing on the
larger
5.
Research and pnalysis
Additional
Before
that
increasing
units.
Required
proceeding with a final
recommended
by
develpment
WMA undertake the fol
plan,
it
is
lowing additional
ana 1 yses:
a)
Site Analysis
A detailed study of the topography and hydrology is
needed to assess the magnitude of the infrastructure
opportunit ies and constraints.
costs and site
b)
Recreational Developments
Comparable
A survey and analysis cf other
resort
communit ies could be done to learn more about
proper
cost and the premium
This will
amenities.
appropriate
paid for different
level of amenities
pricing schedule.
determine the required critical
until
the
Plymouth,
N. H.
Spinnaker Island
communities
WMA
will
be difficult
mass for
worth reviewing
development
Political
It
and an
in
in
Utah,
in
include White Cliffs
Hull,
to
the development
infrastructure and amenity costs are
Developments
the
enable WMA to make a better
decision about the proper
c)
primary and second hortme
known.
in
Lake Winnepausaukee,
recent years and primary home resort
Pennsylvania,
and Florida.
Analysis
could begin an in-depth study of the
110
local,
regional
Zoning,
and state approvals process.
impact,
environmental
for approvals and special interest
timeframe
groups should be explored and a strategy
approvals
The effects of the recent moratorium
devised.
construct ion
resident ial
d)
for
in
Worcester
by the Leominster
limiting
and the execut ive
Department
of Public
order
implemented
Works
regarding sewer hookups should be reviewed.
Financial Analysis
As the
informat ion becomes more sol id
WMA could
on the cost
begin to analyze the financial
structure of financing for the project.
analysis,
equity/debt
structure,
side,
feasibility
and
A tax impact
sensitivity
analysis
and discounted cash flow project ions should be
e)
completed.
This analysis should
development
plan outlining the project
Product
include a complete
phasing.
Design
The survey of other
depth the proper
cost-benefit
communities will
market study and help determine
this
complement
recreational
product mix,
tradeoffs,
in
more
design configuration,
parking needs,
and construction
impli cat ions.
f)
Traffic
Study
Parking and traffic
are likely
the size of the proposed
development
is
known,
in
project
the area.
a traffic
impact
111
to be major
relative
issues given
to other
When the size of the project
study should be done.
NOTES TO CHAPTER VII.
Kathy Weremiuk, Center for Real Estate Development,
MIT,
thesis work or Massachusetts homebuilding industry, July
1987.
I
2 Kenneth DeMay, Sasaki Associates, Seminar on Resort
Planning and Design, Harvard Graduate School of Design,
23-
a
24,
1987.
Kenneth
DeMay,
op.
cit.
112
June
VIII.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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"Built
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3.
Bryant, Barbara Everitt;
Demographics; March 1987
4.
Central Massachusetts Regional Planning Commission;
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Working Paper; CMRPC; 1986
1984
5.
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Transportation Planning
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Chamberlayne, Donald W. ; "A Seller' s Market: Housing in
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10.
Chinitz, Benjamin; "The Reg ional Transformat ion of the
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; "The Massachusetts Economy - The
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Commonwealth of Massachusetts; "Appendix C: Plant
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the Governor's Commission on the Future of Mature
Industries; June 1984
Commonwealth of Massachusetts; Employment Review;
13.
Division of Employment Security; 8/1986, 9/1986, 1/1987
14.
DeMay, Kenneth; "Resort Planning and Design" class notes
seminar of June 1987 at Harvard Graduate School of Design
15.
"Demographic Forecasts"; American Demographics; March
1987
American
Exter, Thomas G.; "Where The Money Is";
16.
Dem:graphics; March 1987
17.
"Economic Development Study for Winchendon,
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University of Massachusetts; draft report; June 1987
Garwood, Alfred N. ; Massachusetts Municipal Profi les
18.
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1987-88; Information Publications, Wellesley Hills,
1986
Assorted Monographs of Massachusetts
Gibney, Fred J.;
19.
and Towns; Massachusetts Department of
SMSA's, Cities,
Commerce; October 1984
Gruen, Nina & Claude Gruen & Wallace F. Smith;
20.
"Demographic Changes and Their Effects on Real Estate
Markets in the 1980s"; Development Component Series;
1982
Urban Land Institute;
Herbers, John; The New Heartland; New York Times Books;
21.
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1986
Ardys J. ; "New England' s Top 150 Employers"; New
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Leggat McCall/Grubb & Ellis,
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1987; Urban
Market Profiles
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1987
25.
Lessinger, Jack; "Emerging Region of Opportunity";
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Louargand, Marc A. ; Policy Issues and High Technology
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Louv, Richard; America II;
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Tarcher; 1983
28.
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Massachusetts Municipal Data Bureau; "U.S.
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building permits 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985
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___________-; Hudson Center Market Analy sis,
Technical
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__________; Downtown Marlborough Market Analysis,
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33-.
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34.
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Montachusett Economic Center, Fitchburg State College;
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On-Site Insight & Abt Associates, DJK Associates and the
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Social Service Planning Corporat ion; "Worcester Master
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Real Estate Data Publishing, Inc.; "County Review";
37.
Worcester and Middlesex Counties; 1986 and 1987
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Robinson, John P. ; "Where' s The Boom?"; American
Demiographics; March 1987
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40.
Siegel, Richard A. ; "Market Structures and Market
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Schwartz, Joe; "On The Road Again"; American
41.
Demographics; April 1987
42.
Town of Princeton; Annual Reports 1986
1986
; "Street List";
43.-----------; "Rules and Regulations Governing the
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45. ------------22.
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amendmentts of May 1987
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Town of Westminster; Town Report 1986
47.
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48. ------------; "Subdivision Regulations"; 6/15/82
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50.
Business; May 4, 1987
51.
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"The Inc. 500"; Inc. ; December 1985
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combined edition of The Evening Gazette and Worcester
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----- ; County Business Patterns - Massachusetts;
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----- ;"Household and Family Characteristics: March
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Abstract 1987.
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63. -----------Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
U.S.
64.
"Employment and Earnings"; April 1987
Carol; "Clustered for Leisure"; The New York Times
Vogel,
65.
Maqazine; June 28, 1987.
66.
Wallace, Floyd, Ellenzweig, Moore,
Inc.
& Meta Systems,
& Cambridge Acoustical Associates Interchange;
Inc.
"Wachusett Mountain Ski Area Expansion - Final
Environmental Impact Report"; July 1980
Wards Business Directory; 1986
67.
Worcester Office of Planning and Community Development;
68.
"Economic Base Analysis"; June 1987
Inc. ; "Wachusett Mountain - Preliminary Development
WRT,
69.
Concepts"; March 1987
46.
115
APEMDIX A
EMPLDVERS IN MARKET AREA
Organization
Location
Acton Corp.
Bomar Instrument Corp.
Beltran Corp.
C3t Group Inc.
Haartz Corp.
Rex Lumber Co.
Fenual Inc.
Imperial Distributors Inc.
Sears Roebuck &Co.
John E. Cain Co.
BASF Systems
Baird Corp.
Computervision
S:A Corp.
Millipore Corp.
Fanny Farmer Candy
Acton
Acton
Acton
Acton
Acton
Acton
Ashland
Auburn
Auburn
Ayer
Bedford
Bedford
Bedford
Bedford
Bedford
Bedford
Raytheon -
Bedford
issle Sys.
I Employees
60
25K0
amK
2M
2K0
IlK
M
411
40
13M
70
510
36M0
4308
Bedford
itre Corp
Bedford
Atex Inc.
Dolton
Genrad Inc.
Clinton
Process Control Div.
Clinton
Kelly's Plastics
Clinton
LFE
Clinton
NP , Inc.
Concord
Genrad Inc.
Concord
Welch Foods Inc.
Fitchburg
Asher Co.
Fitchburg
Bee Plastics Manufacturing
Fitchburg
Burbank Hospital
Fitchburg
Dennison Manufacturing Co.
Fitchburg 6as And Electric Co. Fitchburg
Fitchburg
General Electric Co.
James River Mass Corp.
Fitchburg
Machine Tools
Sanitoy Inc.
Seaboard Folding Box Co.
Simonds Cutting Tools
Technographics Inc.
Badger Steel &Wire
Baystate Curtain
Cano Corp
ChumDesign Corp.
Moduform, Inc
Spectro, Inc.
(Total of Fitchburg+ Fires)
Alloy Computer Products
Consolidated Group
Fitchburg
Fitchburg
Fitchburg
Fitchburg
Fitchburg
Fitchburg+
Fitchburg+
Fitchburg+
Fitchburg+
Fitchburg+
Fitchburg+
14K
150
14K
34K
30
200
850
175
7
736
329
120
158
1N
5K
144
1NS
?
?
Framingham
Framingham
116
Product/Service
TV Broadcasting
Aircraft Parts
Poultry &egg products
Holding Group, clothing
Coated Fabrics Mfr
Whl Lumber
alI Hith & Beauty Aids
El/Retail Trade
Furniture
Pickled fruit &vegs.
Ball &Roll bearings
Research Instruments
Industrial Instruments
9
9
9
1,3
2
2
2
7
6
9
9
9
9
9
Semiconductors,
9
Industrial Instruments
9
Candy
9
Radio &TV transmitors
9
Research &Development
9
Electrical/Computer Equip
1
1
8
Injection Molding
8
Injection Molding
8
Injection Molding
1
2
Grape Foods Product Mfr
Clothing
6,8
6
Picnic Ware
Health Care
6,8
1
Plastic Cable Wires
3
6,8
Compressors
I1,6,8
Furniture
6
Special Machinery
6
Toys
6
Boxes
Folding
Cutting Tools
6,8
2,6,8
Paper Products Mfr
8
231 Park &Mont.Indus.Pk
a
&
Mont.Indus.Pk
231 Park
8
Indus.Pk
Mont.
I
231 Park
8
Indus.Pk
I
Mont.
231 Park
8
&
Mont.Indus.Pk,
231 Park
8
Mont.Indus.Pk,
&
231 Park
8
&
Mont.Indus.Pk
Park
231
4
Computer Peripherals Nfr
2,4
Employee-Benefits Plans
Framingham
Framingham
Framingham
Framingham
Framingham
Framingham
Framingham
Framingham
Framingham
Zayre Corp.
Fram/Hopk' tn
Bse Corp.
Fra/Natick
Prime Computer Inc
Gardner
Collier Keyworth Co.
Gardner
Conant Ball Co.
Gardner
Gem Co.
Modern Contract Furniture Inc. Gardner
Gardner
Nichols Co.
Gardner
Simplex Time Recorder Co.
Gardner
S. Bent &Bros. Inc.
ardner
Wood-Tek
Grafton
yman-Gordon Co.
Holden
ECC Corp.
Holden
Reed Plastics
Holden
Reed Rollthread Die Co.
Stuarts Department Stores Inc. Hopkinton
Hudson
Digital Equipment Corp.
Lancaster
Sterling Manufacturing Inc.
Millbrook Distributors, Inc. Leicester
Leominster
Aarin Plastics Inc.
Leominster
ART Plastics Co. Inc.
Leominster
Bamberger Polymers Corp.
Leominster
Foster Grant
Harrington Kingman, E.B. Co. Leominster
Leominster
Onnirel Corp.
Leominster
Paragon Plastics Inc.
Leominster
Peterborough Oil Co.
Leominster
Plastican Inc.
Leominster
Polysar Inc.
Leominster
Rand Whitney
Leominster
RIM Manufacturing Corp.
Leominster
Star Containers Corp.
Leominster
Co.
Cook
&
Tilton
Leominster
Tucker Housewares
Leominster
Union Products
Leominster
UPS
Leominster
Inc.
Vertiple
Leominster
Victory Button Co.
Leominster
Inc.
Distributors
Victory
Littleton
Communications
Warren
Litt leton
Corp.
Equipment
Digital
Littleton
Products
Apple
New England
Marlborough
Corp.
Equipment
Digital
Marlborough
New England Critical Care
Marlborough
Co.
Rockport
Dennison Manufacturing Co.
Frmingham Auto Sales Inc.
General Motors Corp.
Holmes Transportation Inc.
International Paper Co.
Perini Corp.
LH. Long Motor Sales Co.
Thomas Taylor &Sons
Ret Now &Used Autos
1
2
Comon Carrier
2
2366
3866
11f
?% * 1969
6366
1o
125
7%* 12666
1in
Construction/Real Estate
New &Used Auto Sales
Nfr Clothing
Discount Retail
Hi-Fi Speaker Syst. Mfr
7366
456
183
166-249
3i0
30
166-249
?%* 210
120
122
?m
126
?5N0
156
INS
166
2M6
256
250
38
125
268
100
3N6
156
156
111
256
2N6
?%of 1957
130
226
25M88
?% * 37763
7 * 37700
191
?7
117
1
3
2
8
1,3
2,8
1,8
Furniture
Furniture
Mfr Funiture
Furniture
Mfr Funiture
Fire Alarm Systems
Chairs
Furniture
6
6
8
6
8
2,6
6,8
6
1
8
Mfr Computer Circuit Brds
8
Mfr (High Tech)
8
Mfr Machine Tools
3
Retail
1,8
6
Injection Molding
8
Distributors
6
Plastics
6
Plastic Products
6
Plastic Resins
6,8
Sunglasses
6
Plastics
8
Mfr Circuitry (High Tech)
6
Plastic Caps
2
bhl &Ret Petroleum
6
Plastic Pails
6
Rubber Laytex
6
Folding Boxes
6
Ladies Garments
6
Corrugated Cartons
6
Plastic Barrets
6
Plastic Housewares
6
Plastic Lawn Ornaments
8
Delivery Service
6
Coated Materials
6
Plastic Hangers
2
Retail Supermarkets
1
1
2
Fruit Drinks Sales & Mfr
1
5
In-Home Infusion Therapy
2
Stratus Computer
Digital Equipment Corp.
Wynan-4ordon Co.
New England Instrument Co.
Prime Computer
EC
Scandinavian Design
Sears Roebuck And Co.
Cardiodata
Norton Co.
Raytheon
The Hope Group
Sweet Life Foods
James River Corp.
Belden Corp.
Digital Equipment Corp
Elkay Products Co., Inc.
Spag'S Supply Inc.
LPS
Worcester Fndtn F/ Exper.Biol.
Commonwealth Energy System
Consonwealth 6as
Data General Corp.
Flexcon Co. Inc.
Sterlite Corp.
Raytheon Co.
Mass Electric
Astra Pharmaceutical Products
Bay State Abrasives
Data General
Data General Corp.
GTE
New England Electric System
Smith Valve Corporation
Digital Equipment Corp.
W.E. Aubuchon Co. Inc.
Ami Cos.
Anderson Products
Barry Wright Corp.
Boston Beef Co. Inc.
Central Mass. Health Care
Chess King
Cincinnati Milacron
Clark University
Combustion Engineering Inc.
Conifer Group Inc.
Coppus Engin. Corp.
Cutler Associates Inc.
C.K. Smith &Co. Inc.
David Clarke Co., Inc.
Dining And Kitchen Admin.
Guaranty Bank And Trust
Hanover Ins.
1,69
Marlborough
Maynard
MilIbury
Natick
Natick
Natick
Nat ick
Natick
Northborough
Northborough
Northborough
Northborough
3w0
Shrewsbury
Southborough
Southborough
Southborough
5
1
1
Residential Home Builder
2
1
5
7388
392
Computer Product Mfr
Home Furnishings
135
75.
123
680
200
2W0
125.
268
5"
7%of 1857
205
7%* 2451
525
2
1
?%* 20546
Northborough
Pepperell
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Computer Mfr &Mktg
7%* 37700
?%* 210
Medical Electronics Mfr
RID Ceramics Divison
Manufacturing (High Tech)
Mfr Industrial Equipment
4
8
9
8
2
1
Mfr (High Tech)
Mfr (High Tech)
Mfr HIth &Med.Products
Delivery Service
Services
8
8
27
8
7
Utilities
7%* 700
Plastic Film Prod. Mfr
Spencer
Townsend
Wayland
35.
8700
West borough
Westborough
19
558
Westborough
Westborough
Westborough
Westborough
West borough
Westborough
Westminster
Westminster
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
45H
1770
875
5,200
240
1500
6w
125
7%* 1642
1
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing (High Tech)
Manufacturing (High Tech)
Utility
Manufacturing
526
?%* 45W
14W9
216
320
885
118
1
7
7
7
7
1,3
1
2
2
7
Wilsl Meat Distributor
2
4
1
9
Clothing Store
Manufacturing
Services
Services
Const'N &Engin'6
WIl &Ret Petroleum Prod
Manufacturing
?%* 2M8
6W
1
Retail Hardware Store
Auto/Truck SlsLsg,Rntl
Manufacturing
He
21W
768
7
Fire
Fire
7
7
1
1
7
2
2
7
1
7
7
Holy Cross College
Home Federal Savings Bank
landoli'S Supermarkets
Jamesbury Corp
Johnson Steel I Wire Co.
Mass Electric Company
Mechanics Bank
Memorial Hospital
Micro Networks Corp
Morgan Construction
New England Telephone Co.
Norton Co.
Parker Affiliated
Parker Manufacturing
Polar Corp.
Paul Revere Life Insur.
Rand-Ilitney Container
Robinson Thread
Shawmut Worcester County Bank
Sprague Electric
Standard Foundry
State Mutual Life Assurance
The Fair
The Worcester Group
Thom Mca 9moe Co.
Travelers Corp.
Unitrode Corp.
Univ. Mass Medical School
Walker Magnetics Group Inc.
Wonder Market Cos. Inc.
Wonder Mkt. Comp.
Worcester, City of
Worcester Cnty Inst.F/ Savings
Worcester Controls
Worcester Hahnemann Hospital
Worcester Polytechnic
Worcester Telegram
Wright Line, Inc.
Wyman-Gordon Co.
Zayre Corp
Zayre/Newton Buying Co.
7N
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
13M
845
156
1486
225
18W
377
596
1616
3187
292
387
2N6
1258
225
102
892
785
115
238
In
800
7%* 13900
7%* 22N6
40N6
20N
6669
353
136
1150
600
916
625
340
Services
7
Fire
7
7
Wl1/Retail Trade
7
Manufacturing
7
Manufacturing
7
Utilities
7
Fire
7
Services
7
Manfacturing (High Tech)
7
Construction
7
Utilities
Manufacturing
7
Manufacturing
7
Manufacturing
7
Bottled &Canned Softdrin
9
Fire
7
Manufacturing
7
Manufacturing
7
1,7
Fire
7
Utilities
Manufacturing
7
Fire
1,7,8
Ill/Retail Trade
7
Nfr Machine Tools
8
Manufacturing
7
1
1
7
Services
Magnetic Device Mfr
2
2
Retail Supermarkets
Whl/Retail Trade
7
7,8
Government
7
Fire
7
Manufacturing
7
Services
7
Services
Communications
7
7
Manufacturing
1
?% * 126W
9N
Wh1/Retail Trade
7
SOURCES:
1 = 'Top 150", New England Business Magazine, 18/7/85
2 =Top 250 in Sales, New England Private Companies', New England Business Magazine, 5/4/87
3 = 'Top 150 in Sales, New England Service Companies', New England Business Magazine, 5/18/87
4 ""Top 500 in Sales Growth" (nationwide), Inc. Magazine 12/85
5 *Top 10 in Sales Growth, Small Public Companies' (nationwide), Inc. Magazine, 5/87
6 = North Central Massachusetts Chamber of Commerce, 1987
List compiled 6/18/87
7 = Greater Worcester Chamber of Commerce, 1987
revised 7/14/87
8 = Worcester Telegram and Gazette, 1/9/87
9 = Wards Business Directory, 1986.
119
APPENDIX B
Travel Distances and Times
-
1. Princeton/Boston
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
6.
H.
I.
J.
K.
(Sun 6/28/87)
Wachusett Mt. Lodre Entrance
Mile Hill Rd / Rte 140
Rte 140 / Rte 2 (Westminster)
Rte 2 / Rte 12 (Leominster)
Rte 2 / 1-190 (Leominster)
Rte 2 / 1-495 (Littleton)
Rte 2 / Piper Rd (light, Acton)
Rte 2 / Rte 2A (rotary, Concord)
Rte 2 / I-95/Rt.128 (Lexington)
Rte 2 / Rte 3 (Alewife, Cambridge)
300 Beacon St (Back Bay, Boston)
Trip Totals: A to K
Mileage -
Odom Elap Cum
---
Clock
Time
---
21:27:00 00:00:00
0.8 0.0
1.8 1.0 1.0 21:29:00 00:02:00 00:02:00
3.9 2.1 3.1 21:33:00 00:04:00 00:0:00
11.2 7.3 10.4 21:42:30 00:09:30 00:15:30
13.3 2.1 12.5 21:45:00 00:02:30 00:18:00
24.6 11.3 23.8 21:56:30 00:11:30 00:29:30
29.8 5.2 29.0 22:01:00 00:04:30 00:34:00
32.1 2.3 31.3 22:05:00 00:04:00 00:38:00
39.8 7.7 39.0 22:16:30 00:11:30 00:49:30
46.4 6.6 45.6 22:23:00 00:06:30 00:56:00
52.7 6.3 51.9 22:35:00 00:12:00 01:08:00
51.9
120
Speed
Elapsed Cum'tive (Avg.MPH)
01:08:00
30.0
31.5
46.1
50.4
59.0
69.3
34.5
40.2
60.9
31.5
45.8
APPENDIX C
MARKET AREA
Towns and Cities within 20 miles of site which
Primary:
are also within 20 miles of 5 major employment centers:
1)Worcester; 2) Northboro/Westboro - southern 495; 3)
- northern 495; 5) Fitchburg/
Framingham; 4) Littleton
assumes that 20 miles equates
Definition
Leominster/Gardner.
(49 towns).
time.
commuting
of
minutes
30-45
with
Oakham
Phillipston
Petersham
Grafton
Brookfield
East Brookfield
Ashburnham
*Littleton
*Ashby
*Townsend
Pepperell
Templeton
Gardner
Westminster
Auburn
Leicester
Westborough
Shrewsbury
Worcester
Paxton
Northborough
*Marlborough
Boylston
West Boylston
Winchendon
Barre
New Braintree
Spencer
Millbury
North Brookfield
Fitchburg
Lunenburg
*Shirley
*Grot on
*Ayer
Hubbardston
Leominster
Harvard
Lancaster
*Boxboro
Princeton
Sterling
Bolton
*Stow
*Hudson
Berlin
Clinton
Rutland
Holden
between Routes 128 and 495,
Secondary: Towns and cities
(21 towns).
south of Route 3 and north of Route 109.
**Dover
*Sherborn
*Holliston
*Natick
**Wellesley
**Needham
Westford
*Act on
*Maynard
*Sudbury
*Framingham
*Ashland
*Hopkinton
Southborough
*Lincoln
*Carlisle
Milford
*Weston
*Wayland
*Concord
*Bedford
All towns in Worcester County except: *
** Norfolk County towns.
towns;
121
Middlesex County,
MA
-
-YAW"ksow-
APPENDIX D
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
198-1985
Average Wages
Total Employment
1980
1985
Percent
Change
1980
100,891
17,469
14,051
4,084
218
2,858
11,736
13,483
3,172
2,837
1,876
723
129
2,099
%4
1,298
9,886
1,105
1,159
1,485
4,714
213
1,536
628
558
807
1,022
805
5,224
298
5,315
531
2,424
1,049
580
6,237
1,142
6,88a
478
678
98, 625
18,88
14,443
4,459
462
2,918
15, 38
12,907
3,429
3,412
1,699
784
165
2,717
1,148
1,170
8,589
1,288
1,091
1,693
5,%9
309
1,878
824
645
847
1,239
1,178
6,792
378
5,158
944
2,564
1,412
674
7,007
1,338
7,617
367
268
-2.25%
3.50%
2.79%
9.18%
111.93%
2.10%
28.14%
-4.27%
8.10%
20.27%
-9.43%
8.44%
27.91%
29. 44%
19.09%
-9.86%
-13.12%
16.56%
-5.87%
14.01%
26.62%
45.07%
22.27%
31.21%
15.59%
4.%%
21.23%
46.34%
30.82%
26.85%
-2.95%
77.78%
5.78%
34.60%
16.21%
12.35%
17.16%
26.95%
-23.22%
-60.47%
$13, 324
$13,105
$12,824
$11, 346
$6,781
$16,417
$16, 097
$13, 996
$12,798
$13,075
$9,294
$7,991
$6,983
$12,556
$11,265
$11,451
$12,367
$13,618
$9,545
$10,953
$13,152
$9, 417
$9,111
$11,248
$10,511
$11,775
$13,406
$7,896
$12,711
$8,299
$12,464
$10,427
$13,874
$12,071
$8,655
$12,584
$11, 286
$12,746
$18, 8%
$9,922
1985
Total Wages
Percent
Change
1980
Number of Establishments
1985
1980
1985
Percent
Change
Primary
Market
Worcester
Fitchburg
Leominster
Holden
Princeton
Westminster
Westborough
Karlborough
Northborough
Litt leton
Winchendon
Ashburnham
Ashby
Townsend
Pepperell
Templeton
6ardner
Lunenburg
Shirley
Groton
Ayer
Hubbardston
Lancaster
Harvard
Boxborough
Sterling
Bolton
Stow
Hudson
Berlin
Clinton
Rutland
W. Boylston
Boylston
Paxton
Shrewsbury
Leicester
Auburn
Brookfield
E.Brookfield
122
$18, 424
$16,854
$16,01
$15, 882
$9, 876
$25,648
$23, 842
$21, 630
$17,998
$20,687
$13,583
$12,780
$12,555
$17,203
$17, 042
$15,630
$17,100
$18,343
$15,370
$15,687
$17,600
$14,226
$16,033
$16,069
$19,725
$13,552
$20,451
$17,638
$22, 156
$13,448
$16,919
$15,649
$17,495
$15,971
$11,476
$16,845
$14,971
$15,516
$13,832
$12, 546
38.28%
28.61%
24.77%
39.98%
45. 64%
56.23%
48. 11%
54.54%
40.63%
58.22%
46.15%
59.93%
79.79%
37.01%
51.28%
36.49%
38.27%
34.70%
61.3%
43.22%
33.82%
51.07%
75.97%
42.86%
87.66%
15.09%
52.55%
123.38%
74.31%
62.04%
35.74%
50.08%
26.10%
32.31%
32.59%
33.86%
32.65%
21.73%
37.00%
26. 45%
$1,344,271,684 $1,817,067,888
$384, 720,320
$228,931,245
$231,182,443
$180, 190,024
$46,337,064
$70, 817,838
$1,478,258
$4,562,712
$46,919,786
$74,848,864
$188, 914,392
$358,535,9%
$186,788,868
$279, 178,410
$4,595,256
$61,715,142
$37,093,775
$70,584,044
$17,435,544
$23,077,517
$10,019,520
$5,777,493
$900,807
$2,071,575
$26,355,044
$46,740,551
$10,859,460
$19,564,216
$14,863,398
$18,287,100
$122. 260,162
$146,871, 900
$15,047,890
$23,625,784
$11,062,655
$16,768,670
$16,265,205
$26,558,091
$61,998,528
$105,054,488
$2,005,821
$4,395,834
$13,994,4%
$30,109,974
$7,063,744
$13,240,856
$5,865,138
$12,722,625
$9,502,425
$11, 478,544
$25,338,789
$13,788,932
$20,777,564
$6,356,280
$150,483,552
$66,402,264
$5,883,344
$2,473,102
$87, 268,202
$66, 246,160
$14,772,656
$5,536,737
$33,630,576
$44,857,180
$22,551,052
$12,662,479
$5,019,900
$7,734,824
$78, 486,408
$118,832, 915
$12,888,612
$20,031,198
$76, 476,888
$118,185,372
$4,825,888
$5,076,344
$3,362,328
$6, 727, 116
3,820 3,900
906
973
745
855
276
229
45
35
71
94
477
324
4%
698
183
251
143
190
161
163
61
72
46
33
82
104
95 126
91
88
401
410
123
109
62
74
111
142
178
214
27
30
88
97
75
108
66
50
95
108
65
62
91
134
288
342
45
62
270
282
51
58
149
168
66
75
59
61
376
487
156
125
385
328
41
59
46
51
2.09%
7.40%
14.77%
20.52%
28.57%
32.39%
47. 22%
40.73%
37.16%
32.87%
1.24%
18.03%
39.39%
26.83%
32.63%
-3.30%
2.24%
12.84%
19.35%
27.93%
20.22%
11.11%
10.23%
44.00%
32.00%
13.68%
4.84%
47.25%
18.75%
37.78%
4.44%
13.73%
12.75%
13.64%
3.39%
29.52%
24.80%
17.38%
43.90%
-9.80%
Spencer
Dakham
N.Brookfield
Grafton
Barre
Phillipston
New Braintre
Petersham
Millbury
Total
1,855
54
951
3,270
753
71
35
94
2,528
241,373
2,573
38.71%
$10,967
76 40.74%
$8,819
843 -11.36% $13,055
14.50%
$14,828
3,744
787
4.52% $12,387
77
8.45%
$4,410
50 42.86% $6,032
111
$7,013
18.09%
2,903
14.83%
$12,673
252,689
4.69% $547,621
$15, 379
$12,001
$18, 675
$19,699
$14,487
$8,914
$6,819
$10,204
$16, 455
$786,886
49.23%
36.08%
43.05%
32.85%
16.95%
102.13%
13.05%
45.50%
29.84%
43.69%
$20, 343,785
$39,570,167
$912,076
$476,226
$15,743,025
$12, 415, 305
$73,753,056
$48, 487,560
$11, 401,269
$9,327,411
$313, 110
$686,378
$340,950
$211,120
$1,132,644
$659,222
$47,768,865
$32,037,344
$3,160,400,899 $4,618,575, 676
$13,093
Weighted Average Wages
205
169
21.30%
10
21 110.00%
77
69 -10.39%
2m3
239
17.73%
90
84
7.14%
10 25. 00
8
4
8 100.W%
29
25
16.00%
192
217
13.02%
13.57%
11,445 12,998
$18,278
Secondary
Market
West ford
Acton
Maynard
Sudbury
Framingham
Ashland
Hopkinton
Dover
Southborough
Sherborn
Holliston
Natick
Wellesley
Needham
Weston
Wayland
Lincoln
Concord
Carlisle
Bedford
Milford
Total
2,958
5,365
15,926
7,186
40,136
3,564
1,885
653
3,439
330
2888
15,562
16,117
14,755
3,147
2,948
1,374
9,827
405
19,597
7,186
175,248
4,659
8,304
15,187
8,984
49,032
3,682
2,703
617
3,269
450
3726
17,809
17,868
19,670
3,809
3,066
1,352
11,983
602
23,706
10,287
210,765
57.51%
54.78%
-4.64%
25.02%
22. 16%
3.31%
43.40%
-5.51%
-4.94%
36.36%
29.02%
14. 44%
10.86%
33.31%
21.04%
4.00%
-1.60%
21.94%
48.64%
20.97%
43.15%
20.27%
$12,691
$11,431
$18, 036
$18,493
$14,422
$14,272
$13,326
$12,362
$16,264
$10,437
$13,698
$13,650
$16,136
$16,091
$14,766
$12,503
$9,781
$14, 128
$13,891
$21,126
$12,127
299,631
$20,156
$19,006
$29,999
$26, 890
$22, 272
$18,587
$21,444
$18,453
$22, 883
$15,394
$19, 318
$19,881
$23,821
$26,121
$21,175
$18,556
$17,171
$21,695
$25,2%
$28,022
$16, 789
452,929
58.82%
66.27%
66.33%
45. 41%
54.43%
30.23%
60.92%
49.27%
40.70%
47. 49%
41.03%
45.65%
47.63%
62.33%
43.40%
48. 41%
75.55%
53.56%
82.10%
32.64%
38.44%
51.16%
$93, 906,804
$37, 539,978
$157,825,824
$61,327,315
$455,594,813
$287,241,336
$241,579,760
$132,890,698
$578,841,392 $1,092,040,704
$68, 437,334
$50,865,408
$57,963,132
$25, 119,510
$11,385,501
$8,072,386
$74, 804,527
$55, 931,8%
$6,927,300
$3,444,210
$71,978,868
$39, 559, 824
$354,060,729
$212,421,300
$425,633,628
$260,063,912
$513,800,070
$237, 422,705
$80,655,575
$46,468,602
$56, 892,696
$36,858,844
$23,215,192
$13,439,094
$259,971, 185
$138,835,856
$5,625,855
$15,228,192
$414,006,222
$664,289,532
$87,144,622
$172,708,443
$2,733,120,965 $4,898,899,809
$15,596
Weighted Average Wages
$23,243
SOURCES: Massachusetts Division of Employment Security, "Employment and Wages in Massachusetts'
Cities and Towns 1986 - 1985; Mary Lou Boutwell.
1231
208
418
182
284
1,522
171
121
87
129
63
221
770
928
885
272
244
118
497
62
332
444
7958
288
544
204
354
1,906
243
213
113
161
91
317
900
1,086
1,018
349
292
135
613
83
425
496
9831
38. 46%
30.14%
12.09%
24.65%
25.23%
42.11%
76.03%
29.89%
24. 81%
44. 44%
43.44%
16.88%
17.03%
15.03%
28.31%
19.67%
14. 41%
23.34%
33.87%
28.01%
11.71%
23.54%
APPENDIX E
Building Permits by Town
1981-1985
Primary Market
Ashburnhau
Ashby
Auburn
Ayer
Barre
Berlin
Bolton
Boxboro
Boylston
Brookfield
Clinton
East Brookfield
Fitchburg
1981
1982
31
13
38
16
1
15
5
16
4
8
Bardner
6rafton
Broton
Harvard
Holden
Hubbardston
Hudson
Lancaster
Leicester
Leominster
Littleton
Lunenburg
Marlborough
Millbury
New Braintree
North Brookfield
Northborough
Oakham
Paxton
Pepperell
Petersham
Phillipston
Princeton
Rutland
Shirley
Shrewsbury
Spencer
Sterling
Stow
Templeton
Townsend
West Boylston
Westborough
Westminster
28
45
19
33
9
6
50
5
3
4
48
35
63
38
28
32
15
52
7
27
76
27
13
105
44
5
9
45
10
6
39
3
1983
42
6
43
9
13
8
25
15
11
1
6
1984
61
9
176
17
9
28
27
9
32
2
53
37
62
79
42
65
20
88
22
28
143
35
43
144
85
75
161
34
24
165
4
37
20
176
59
51
27
55
34
42
30
124
1985
169
17
198
83
24
30
59
66
45
1
174
19
482
262
165
242
80
207
80
304
50
104
773
7
146
162
198
19
25
248
45
21
194
12
24
78
48
52
324
150
155
125
80
146
83
180
133
1986
48
8
151
210
238
59
27
66
363
15
149
30
127
359
66
Winchendon
Worcester
Total
638
1031
Secondary Market
Acton
Ashland
Bedford
Carlisle
Concord
Dover
Framingham
Holliston
Hopkinton
Lincoln
Maynard
Milford
Natick
Needham
Sherborn
Southborough
Sudbury
Wayland
Wellesley
Westford
Weston
Total
SOURCES:
26
116
1285
26
214
1905
84
207
2601
116
907
7384
28
64
52
26
22
16
102
44
48
13
26
35
79
72
12
28
51
6
15
i28
14
881
53
89
35
52
43
19
107
53
74
25
76
186
125
40
14
37
69
19
20
183
22
1261
79
102
8
65
47
25
195
49
88
13
29
142
158
65
20
63
102
58
38
255
344
243
154
108
83
95
454
228
274
58
130
334
826
584
64
83
223
185
460
311
120
5361
160i
2227
4143
92
61
34
70
117
13
201
7
34
81
77
156
943
Massachusetts Municipal Data Bureau, 1982-1985
Central Massachusetts Regional Planning Commission, 1981
U.S. Department of Comerce, Bureau of the Census
Construction Report, Annual Issue for 1984 and November 1986;
1986 permit figures are 11 months only.
125
APPENDIX F
County Reviews
1986
PRIMARY MARKET
Ashburnham
Ashby
Auburn
Ayer
Barre
Berlin
Bolton
Boxboro
Boylston
Brookfield
Clinton
East Brookfield
Fitchburg
Gardner
Grafton
Groton
Harvard
Holden
Hubbardston
Hudson
Lancaster
Leicester
Leominster
Littleton
Lunenburg
Marlborough
Millbury
New Braintree
North Brookfield
Northborough
Oakham
Paxton
Pepperell
Petersham
Phillipston
Princeton
Rutland
Shirley
Shrewsbury
Spencer
Sterling
Stow
Templeton
Townsend
West Boylston
Westborough
Westminster
Winchendon
Number Average Sale
219
$70,389
79
98,635
377
123,653
134
107,395
129
72,838
52
206,464
88
288,278
388
130,260
154,957
88
94
60,694
285
125,214
70,947
45
911
114,452
652
97,480
116,646
354
177,925
241
140
255,857
385
137,922
151
68,424
490
145,452
119
129,194
206
82,551
1,208
139,678
224,195
183
128,758
245
871
193,653
270
157,523
21
54,419
89,010
95
397
199,849
69
64,499
103
207,736
142,781
313
39
58,115
66
45,693
113
121,590
495,137
239
100,267
176
68
354,977
239
93, 374
180
140,908
117
361,941
131
58,309
223
164,645
126
139,644
824, 118
389
168
101,440
293
80,432
126
Worcester
TOTAL SALES
AVERAGE SALE
SECONDARY MARKET
Acton
Ashland
Bedford
Carlisle
Concord
Dover
Framingham
Holliston
Hopkinton
Lincoln
Maynard
Milford
Natick
Needham
Sherborn
Southborough
Sudbury
Wayland
Wellesley
Westford
Weston
TOTAL SALES
AVERAGE SALE
SOURCES:
3,013
15,522
131, 83
$155,536
635
514
179
139
357
$228, 434
157,835
521,879
293,985
484,892
1,641
318
392
168
249
793
645
211,825
216,548
225,750
396,457
158,783
149,302
426,128
93
183
411
254
296,833
262,719
339,882
278,421
512
208
7,623
236,568
518,458
$294,101
"County Review", Middlesex and Worcester
Counties, 1986 Final Year End Issue,
Banker and Tradesman
Mary Lou Boutwell
127
WPeg4DX 6
Multiple Listing Service Data
Single Family Home Sales 1986
PRIMARY MARKET
9
Sold
Total
Value
Mean
Price
Ashburnham
Ashby
Auburn
Ayer
Barre
Berlin
Bolton
Bomboro
Boylston
Brookfield
Clinton
East Brookfield
46
32
65
32
14
8
21
5
15
12
20
3
597660
3816175
7271498
3542999
1237399
1389999
4693829
1736759
254459
982921
2256650
2664W
119361
119255
111869
11688
88386
172599
219230
347350
16%33
81910
112833
88899
Fitchburg
Gardner
Grafton
174
86
73
17947589
7759199
11817518
193147
%99
161884
Town
Groton
29
5303359
182874
Harvard
53
15732899
296845
121
12
152
39
37
269
18
83
284
44
2
18522352
153840
22622833
4293699
3558959
32985138
39444W
11052959
51628663
5913642
242500
153877
1282W
148834
143120
%164
122621
169133
133157
181791
113946
121259
Holden
Hubbardston
Hudson
Lancaster
Leicester
Leominster
Littleton
Lunenburg
Marlborough
Millbury
New Braintree
North Brookfield
Northborough
Oakha.
Paxton
Pepperell
Petersham
Phillipston
Princeton
Rutland
Shirley
Shrewsbury
Spencer
Sterling
Stow
Templeton
Townsend
8
7559W
94375
115
4
18
111
3
7
19
18
17
162
35
42
37
29
99
29227934
53701
314992
17845242
494400
749909
3349225
1850709
392890
2532236
5931299
7914689
8868299
1586600
119%910
175895
134259
174495
168768
134899
197129
176275
16917
231112
156187
143749
167016
23%81
79339
133299
128
West Boylston
Westborough
Westminster
Winchendon
Worcester
Total
Primary Market
32
164
43
76
37,
5162458
19198693
5888453
6676885
44375613
161327
184526
135M
87842
119934
3865 441,579,946 $144,871
SECONDARY MARKET
Acton
Ashland
Bedford
Carlisle
Concord
Dover
Framingham
Holliston
Hopkinton
Lincoln
Maynard
Nilford
Natick
Needham
Sherborn
Southborough
Sudbury
Wayland
Wel lesley
Westford
Weston
Total
Secondary Market
59 14172288
26886522
158
3286858
15
422575
13
18778788
52
37 16348163
558 188833222
35224338
182
161
3386226
58 23213580
37
4692589
38788415
251
57797468
322
54478661
233
18959891
56
15223838
71
79351618
266
38771698
134
326 111111652
676M88
4
66974688
125
24M7
165185
218678
325058
366975
441626
183333
193548
216312
464278
126827
154584
179495
233786
338569
214489
385199
289341
346831
167588
535797
389% 762,889,677 $246,386
129
APPENDIX H
Primary Market - Average Prices and Sizes
LS Data - New Construction Jan. 1 - July 8, 1987
Location
Single-Family
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Berlin
Boylston
Clinton
Marlborough
Marlborough
Marlborough
Marlborough
Marlborough
Marlborough
Marlborough
Marlborough
Northborough
Northborough
Northborough
Northborough
Northborough
Shrewsbury
Price
Sq. Feet
1888
1104
1568
1500
1536
1536
1891
low
1888
1750
888
1350
1350
1350
1350
1350
1500
15
1900
2250
1988
1104
2320
1118
1352
1700
20N8
1944
2300
48W0
1300
1248
1728
1352
1872
1970
1970
2308
2352
4200
2160
2400
2610
2701
3794
1888
90M00
18998
129900
129900
1328N8
133888
98888
98980
164900
14200N
1160088
1160N8
116988
116980
117280
126580
1358@N
2250N8
2008M8
188888
186588
1350N8
18M8
198888
192988
283180
284888
435800
148988
13850
1939N8
285888
222888
24848N
25990
279980
39988
475888
2588M8
276500
279988
359908
595888
2000W0
130
BRs
Baths
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
2
1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1
2.5
2.5
2.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
3
2
2.5
2.5
2.5
3
1.5
1
2.5
2
2
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
1.5
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Southborough
Sterling
Sterling
Sterling
Westborough
Westborough
Westborough
Westborough
West borough
Westborough
West borough
West borough
Westborough
West borough
West borough
Holden
Holden
Holden
Holden
Holden
Paxton
Paxton
Princeton
Princeton
Princeton
Princeton
Princeton
Auburn
Auburn
Brafton
Brafton
Brafton
Grafton
Brafton
Grafton
Leicester
Leicester
Leicester
Leicester
Leicester
Framingham
Hubbardston
222500
222500
234300
242500
24500
257900
267900
279900
284900
289900
299900
393888
241888
255900
349988
238900
245900
255900
2769W
278900
278900
28088
294900
294900
383425
365888
153800
22789M
229888
244888
2888
206888
318888
152500
178888
215900
236588
325880
137500
148888
172500
288800
238888
239900
21088
243888
113588
118588
136888
136888
195888
212500
129900
1976
1152
2160
2240
28
248
2848
2640
2848
2240
2248
3500
2226
28W
4N8
248
2240
2240
2684
2684
2290
2624
2888
2688
2628
3898
1872
2288
2352
2370
2682
2600
2788
1275
1872
1976
2184
2500
1288
1400
1536
1976
2248
2300
2100
2400
1200
1200
1388
1388
1976
1600
1350
131
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
4
4
4
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
4
4
3
3
4
4
4
3
4
2
2
2
2
3
4
3
2.5
1.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
3
2.5
3
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
1.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
1
2
1.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
1
1
1
1
2.5
2.5
1.5
1184
Hubbardston
141900
1400
165000
Hubbardston
1ow
17500
Hubbardston
1680
182500
Hubbardston
1,973
$215,293
AVERAGE
(Average of all single families)
Total number
103
$224,958
AVERAGES
(Average from Princeton up)
84
Total number
Condominiums
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Worcester
Boylston
Clinton
Northborough
Northborough
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Holden
Holden
Holden
Auburn
Auburn
Grafton
Grafton
Brafton
Grafton
Grafton
AVERAGES
Total Number
21859
840
800
858
888
800
80
800
80
100
80
800
1104
782
782
100
108M
952
188M
80
10
1150
2MW
1270
11W
1500
1500
1760
1760
1450
1500
1300
700
1260
1200
978
978
188
978
1,078
76900
82900
84900
84900
85900
85900
85900
89888
1128W
85908
87900
10"
75M
76808
770
85500
85900
8708
191900
84500
117500
1430
137500
13908
142900
144900
225000
234900
149900
149900
1520
998W
133500
117500
124900
124900
124900
126900
$113,763
38
132
4
2.2
1
1
1.5
i
1
1
1
1
1.5
1.5
1.5
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
1.5
2
2
2
1.5
1.5
2
2
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
1.5
1.5
2
1.5
1
1
1
1
1.6
(Averages through Holden)
$111,981
AVERAGES
31
Total Number
SOURCES:
1,9
2
Greater Worcester Multiple Listing Service
M.L. Boutwell
133
1.6
APPENDIX I
Inventory of Currently Selling Residential Projects
Primary and Secondary Market Areas
July 1987
Sales Absorption
Project
Town
Developer/
Broker
Price
Range
Square
Footage
Price
Per SF
BR
BA
Recrea.
Amenities
Lot Size
Acres
Units
Proposed
Units
Sold
Sales
Start Date
Buyers
Monthly
Absorption
PRIMARY MARKET
A. Single-Family
Detached
1.
Brigham Hill Estates
Hudson
Lane Homes
$199,900
$259,88w
1388
2388
$154
$108
2.
Candlewood Farms
Shrewsbury
M.J.Casa
$219,80M
$275, 88
2840
2700
$107
$182
3.
Fox Hill
Holden
C.B. Blair
$250,8on
$325, 88
2300
2400
$109
$135
4.
Hawthorne Hill
Rutland
C.B. Blair
$150,888
$260,8an
1200
2100
$125
$124
1.5
1.5
5.
Hidden Farm Estates
Worcester
Domicile, Inc.
$196,88
$250, 88N
28M8
2400
$98
$164
2.5
2.5
6.
Legate Estates
Leominster
Ojala Const.
Codman RE
$160, 888
$198,0888
1650
1900
$97
$190
7.
Pheasant Hollow at Snow Pond
Princeton
Vanasse
8.
Pierce Farm
Fitchburg
Klondike Corp.
$129,900
$186,8m
1888
1758
9.
Stonegate
Worcester
Security Homes
Napoli RE
$149,900
$209,880
2M88
290
10. The Clearings
Princeton
Ernest Foster
$480,8ON
$1,880,888
3588
7580
$137
$133
2.5
3
Mass. Develop.
Corporation
$198,588
$250,88W
1730
258
$115
$100
2
2.5
11.
Village at Indian Hill
Worcester
12.
Whittemore St.
Leicester
13.
Woodruff Heights Estates
Clinton
.J. Casa
$179, 888
7/86
2.7
9
9/86
8.9
transferees, families, mid-30's
Digital, Bio-tech Research, Medical
0.5
No
12
12/77
8.1
Move-ups, high tech, employed
in Framingnam area
Borders
Conser. land
50
7/84
1.4
Move-ups, young families, 1200-1300 SF
spit entry for $160,888 most popular
15
7/86
1.25
Move-ups, transferees, 50% professionals,
from Worcester, Northboro, Shrewsbury
3
1.5
2.5
22
9/86
1/87
2.2
2.8
First-time (50%) and Move-up (50%) buyers,
Digital, Littleton, Westborough
8
5/87
4
16
1/87
2.7
Empty-nesters: 50's-60's, Yuppies
in high tech on Rt. 290, 495; move-ups
5
7/86
8.4
Families with children, 30-45, executives
from Gardner, Fitchburg, Worc., out-of-state
12
7/86
1.1
Professionals commuting to Worcester
Boston, Marlborough, 30's-50's.
1
2/87
0.2
3
4/87
1.5
1M8
0.75
Pond
Boating
Executives, 40+, Manufacturers
from Worcester, Fitchburg, Marlboro
$130
$103
$75
$72
$90
$254,487
2,346
$110
($22j00 without $1,888,888 units)
134
32
2.5
2.5
Land, $125,88N $2My,88M per lot
$164,888
$179,888
AVERAES
0.5
0.75
2
2
3
1.5
3
2
3
7
Common Land
138
8.25
8.5
2.2
868
(Total)
(Total)
(Average)
Young families working on Rt. 495;
alternative to Ridgefield condos next door
B. Loncominiums
Townhouses
1.
Chapman Place
Leominster
2.
Fairway Woods
Leicester
Domicile, Inc.
$103,00
i121, 960
Bolf Course
$128,900
Racquetball
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
5.
.
Qakwood
Farms
Pointe Rok Estates
Residence at the Falls
Ridgefield
Roling Oaks
worcester
Northborough
Cl inton
Worcester
$171,98M
1655
$115
$164
2.5
$360,000
2650
$136
3.5
$179,M88
6754
1488
$161
$128
1 I
$122
$92
Lane Homes
mass. Develop.
Corporation
Copley Real
Estate Inv.
HAlbro Const.
Finch Group
$173,500
Metropoiitan;
Condo. Collab.
$138,9006
$150,88M
$167,930
$225,900
14W8
28W8
South Meadow
Shrewsbury
J. J. 0'GBrieri
Development
$169,4^
$189,M88
1800
25808
Sterling
James Simpson
AM Real Estate
$125,800
$160,00W8
1258
1258
1305
Worcester
Lane Homes
Westminster Woods
Gardner
13.
Wilderbrook Village
Gardner
14.
Woodland Hills
Worcester
3.3
48 4 deposits
6/87
0
i
2.5
Tennis, POOl,
jogging, bicycling
168
6/85
7.8
2.5
Tennis, pool
5
Empty-nesters, Yuppies commuting
to Rt. 495 and Worcester
Buyers live and work in the Northboro
area
Young couples working in Boston and
on Rt. 495
3650
2.5
2.5
Tennis, pool,
club, pond
25
2/E87
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Tennis, Pool,
Playgrd., Basketball
66
7/866
5.5
First-time buyers, professionals
from east, work from Rt. 495 to Cambridge
$16
$128
2
2
i.5
Conservation
land
33
9/86
3.3
2.5
Empty-nesters, singles and families
in high tech moving 2-3 towns west
$211
$329
2
2
4 deposits
7/87
0
65
1/86
3.8
First-time buyers from Acton, Marlboro,
Commuting to 495, mid-late 20's.
28
1/87
4.7
First-time buyers commuting to
Rts. 495/128; Empty-nesters
21
9/86
2.1
Prof. from Worcester to Boston, commute
up to 1 hour; 20's-30's, no children
$94
$76
$86,908
1020
$85
Napoli Real
Estate, Inc.
$31,900
$133,900
1288
1700
$77
$79
$126,5M8
1268
1268
Lakefront, pool
18
boating, fitness center
250
Si96
$100
$193,978
1,557
$124
2.1
2.1 )
$164,348 (without the $1,280,N unit - $488,000 max.)
135
6/86
2
3
$120
$113
Napoli Real
Estate, Inc.
HVERAGE.
4
Beach, Boating
Empty-nesters, retirees, selling
old houses and paying cash, 50+ age
2.5
Charter
Development
$1,200,88
12.
1894
Worcester
The Lakeshore
1
2
Salisbury Green
i-. Stillwater Meadws
I.
HIlden
3.3
1646
(Total)
(Total)
Empty-nesters from Salisbury St. area
Prof. couples/divorcees from Worcester
Empty-nesters in 50's-70's, 2nd home
in Florida; hope to get medical prof.in Worc.
OCA.iGA RY
IiKT
A
R. Single-Family
Detached
1.
Ravenwood
Hopkinton
20th Century
$425, 900
Bidrs., ballamora
2.
Hitching Post Estates
Westford
Robert Hicks
$300,88M
Concord
R.Smith Asso.
$510, 0
3. Wright Farm
1800
$167
$183
4
2
2.5
Hiking, pond,
Bridle paths
2.5
Pool, tennis,
50
9/86
5
Professionals from Rt. 495-128
Riding - stables, hiking
AvERtGES
*446,475
4i
2
B. Condominiums
Townnouses
1. Hildreth Hills
Westford
Robert Hicks
2.
Maynard
OnSite
Dynamics
3. Oak Terrace
Framingham
Growth Real
Estate Group
$77,588
$182,500
4.
Nat ick
Keezer
Properties
$114,588
$154,900
Deer Run Hedge
Natick Village
136
$3-,888
535000
1800
2300
$167
$54
Pool, tennis,
club, 216 acres
2
1.5
Pool, tennis,
trails, pond
Workout area
1.5
2
Tennis, pool,
health club
Professionals from Rt. 495-128