At Siemens’ Pipeline Demo Center, an entire Raw Materials | Pipelines pipeline can be simulated — from control center to valve station. Except for its size, everything is the same as in a real facility (right). A shiny silver pipeline snakes over austere, brown hills, past dusty, green prickly pears that haven’t seen a drop of water in ages. Then it changes direction at a 90-degree angle and runs straight toward a compressor station where its pressurized gas content flows through a valve with a loud hiss. No, this is not New Mexico, but the city of Fürth near Nuremberg, Germany. More specifically, the action is taking place in building “F” of a Siemens site, where hardly anyone would expect to see a pipeline. What’s more, the pipeline isn’t a real gas pipeline, but instead only a tube about ten centimeters in diameter that transports nothing more than ordinary air. The brown hills are just poster images on a wall, and the prickly cacti are made of plastic. Otherwise, everything here is brand new. At the Pipeline Demo Center everything has been reproduced faithfully. There’s a master control center, where information about the pipeline is collected on six displays; a second control center that runs on hot standby should the master control center fail — otherwise gry nations, they are playing an ever more important role. “Transnational and even trans-continental pipelines are becoming increasingly important,” says Sinha. The pipelines that transport gas and oil from production fields to consumers are often thousands of miles long. “That places extremely high demands on the system’s reliability and security,” he adds. On the one hand, system operators must guarantee that the transport of the needed raw materials conserves resources to the greatest cations and security equipment, and control computer software. Because of its expertise, Siemens is currently involved in two large pipeline projects. In South Africa, the company is equipping the control center and pumping stations of the “New Multi-Product Pipeline” with a fully automatic monitoring and control system. This pipeline, which runs from Durban to Gauteng, belongs to the Transnet, which operates the South Africa’s 3,000-kilometer pipeline network. The project is scheduled for completion Hardisty in the Canadian province of Alberta, is scheduled to enter service in late 2009 and will have a capacity of up to 590,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Hardisty is located in the huge (roughly 141,000 square kilometers) Athabasca Oil Sands area, which is believed to hold reserves of about 178 billion barrels. In the past, oil sands were deemed to be too expensive to harvest because oil has to be practically “washed” out of the ground. But in view of record petroleum prices, it is now economical to exploit these reserves (see p. 34). extent possible — which requires powerful pumps in the case of oil and high-performance compressors for gas. On the other hand, pipelines must also be protected against terrorist attacks and must be monitored continuously to prevent leaks. All of this requires a sophisticated system that automatically measures physical parameters such as pressure, along the entire line and transmits the resulting information to the control center via radio or satellite. Increasingly, fiber-optic cables are being laid along the pipelines too — “if the infrastructure of the country permits,” says Peter Wappler, who works in Erlangen and is responsible for the pipeline business. before the 2010 Soccer World Cup kicks off, at which time it will be able to transport 16 billion liters of various raw materials — ranging from petroleum to diesel fuel or kerosene — per year. Since 1996, a team from Siemens has been working on renovating and automating old pumping stations that are in part still operated manually so that the pipeline can be completely controlled from the master control cen- Previously, part of the Keystone Pipeline transported gas. But the pipeline is now being converted to oil transport. The pipeline initially runs eastward to a point southwest of Winnipeg, where it bends sharply southward. It terminates at the border between Nebraska and Kansas. From there, one branch goes to Patoka, Illinois, and another goes to the gigantic Cushing tank farms in Oklahoma, and then on to refineries in Texas. Siemens will supply Intelligent Pipes. Siemens not only produces a spectrum of instruments for pipeline operators, but also offers software solutions that control and monitor entire pipeline systems. “The company is present all the way from the point where raw materials are fed into pipes to the tanks where they are stored before being distributed to customers,” says Wappler. Operators can therefore buy everything from a single supplier, whether it be compressors with associated drives, electric motors or gas turbines, associated automation technology, communi- ter in Durban. “Combining the old and the new — that’s the challenge in this project,” says Wappler. Existing parts, like pumps, valves and communications equipment, must be integrated into the new control system. Siemens is also playing a key role in a major Canadian energy project. A few months ago, TransCanada Corporation awarded Siemens a contract to equip its Keystone Pipeline with power supply equipment and electrical pump systems — an order worth €150 million. The 3,456-kilometer pipeline, which begins in Optimizing Our Lifelines Pipelines carry valuable raw materials to consumers. Keeping natural gas and oil flowing as quickly and reliably as possible requires powerful compressors and pumps, as well as sophisticated software that monitors and manages pipelines around the clock. Not only does Siemens supply all of the technology needed, but customers can also check out what’s on offer in a new Pipeline Demo Center. known as a Disaster Recovery Center; a compressor station, where the gas is compressed to allow transport through the pipeline in the first place; and a measuring station with read-outs of the flow rate, temperature, pressure and vibration of the pipes. Simulated Disaster. In addition to simulating normal operations, the Pipeline Demo Center can simulate disasters. Sanjeev Sinha, sales manager for pipeline projects and supervisor of the Demo Center, illustrates a simulated attack in which the control center has been disabled. The computers at the adjacent table immediately intervene; the Disaster Recovery Center takes over. And in no time, the monitors show the location at which gas is escaping from the pipeline. The pressure drops, but not for long. The valves in the critical section are automatically sealed and the leak is isolated. “What this facility provides is a unique opportunity for customers to follow the entire path of oil or natural gas through a pipeline and test associated monitoring systems,” says Sinha. Pipelines are our civilization’s arteries, and in the age of increasingly scarce raw materials and growing competition among energy-hun- 26 Pictures of the Future | Fall 2008 Siemens will help to transport 590,000 barrels of oil a day from Alberta, Canada to refineries in Texas. 37 pumping stations, the associated switching stations, 19 transformer stations, as well as power distribution systems. Powerful Compressors. Siemens is setting standards not only in integrated software solutions for pipeline management, but also in compressors. Since July 2008, the “Megatest Center” — an extension of existing manufacturing and testing facilities in Duisburg, Germany — has been in operation in a 180-meter, 40-meter-wide and 35-meter-high factory hall Pictures of the Future | Fall 2008 27 Valuable Raw Materials: aw materials are basic substances that enter pro- Global oil consumption at the moment is around 30 2015. “That’s because the situation on the oil markets duction in an unprocessed state. There are plant billion barrels per year; proved oil reserves are currently will remain tense, as supply struggles to keep up with and animal-based agricultural raw materials, industrial calculated at 1.1 trillion barrels. According to the Insti- demand,” says IFP Director, Olivier Appert. raw materials such as petroleum and natural gas, base tute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS), the lion’s Demand for natural gas will also continue to rise. metal ores such as copper and iron, and construction share of these reserves (66%) are to be found in the Germany accounts for 18% of European gas consump- raw materials such as sand and gravel. Middle East, primarily in Saudi Arabia (23%). The second tion, making it the second-largest natural gas market in 28 Pictures of the Future | Fall 2008 ing capacity to 800,000 tons per year by 2014. Chile OPEC: Oil Production Stretched to Capacity currently accounts for more than 30% of global copper reserves, followed by the U.S. and Indonesia (7% each). Iron, in the form of steel, is by far the world’s most Production Available important metal. A total of 55 million tons of steel (ap- in April 2008 capacity prox. one-third of total European demand for steel) was 9.05 10.90 used by the construction industry in the EU in 2005. The and third largest reserves are in Canada (15.8%) and Europe after the UK (20%). An analysis carried out in resources. Reserves refers to those raw materials whose Venezuela (7%). After reaching a record high of $147 2005 by Prognos and the Institute of Energy Economics Iran 3.93 4.02 existence has been proved, and which can theoretically per barrel in mid-July 2008, the price of oil has fallen by at the University of Cologne predicts that natural gas United Arab Emirates 2.65 2.88 be economically obtained with today’s technologies. Re- nearly $50 per barrel, but future developments are un- consumption in Europe will increase from 480 billion cu- Kuwait 2.59 2.62 sources, on the other hand, have either not been pre- clear. There are several reasons for high oil prices. De- bic meters in 2003 to 640 billion in 2020. The Interna- Iraq 2.34 2.45 cisely geologically located, or else have been demon- mand is rising, especially in China and the U.S. This situ- tional Energy Agency reports that global natural gas Venezuela 2.32 2.50 strated, but the cost of their extraction remains ation is exacerbated by financial speculation, the threat consumption will increase by 1.5% a year over the next Nigeria 1.86 2.47 uneconomic. A study conducted in 2005 by the Fraun- of political conflict, and OPEC ceilings. OPEC president two decades, reaching some 4.055 trillion cubic meters Angola 1.82 1.82 hofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, the Chakib Khelil says he expects the long-term oil price to per year by 2030. Nearly 36% of global natural gas re- Libya 1.76 1.80 (German) Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural settle at $78 per barrel, provided the dollar increases in serves are located in Russia, which is followed by Iran Algeria 1.38 1.40 Resources (BGR), and the RWI economic research insti- value and the political situation in Iran improves. The and Qatar (approx. 20% each). World market prices for tute concluded that rather than being depleted, the re- head of Investment Strategy at SEB Bank, Klaus natural gas are developing in a manner similar to oil serves of many raw materials have actually been in- Schrüfer, believes prices will hover at just above $100 price developments, except with a certain time lag. At perts at the BGR, annual global copper consumption will creasing due to technological advances, exploration, per barrel in 2009, while the IFP energy research insti- the end of July 2008, for example, the price of natural reach 28.5 million tons by 2025 (as compared with Because of its low specific weight, aluminum is very and higher levels of recycling. tute in France expects oil to cost $200 per barrel by gas moved to over $9,000 per ton, after having cost as 16.5 million tons in 2004), whereby China’s share may popular in the packaging industry — but it’s also in- little as $5,000 in 2007. total as much as 40%. creasingly being used in automotive production, which Reserves Resources in million t in million t in million t Reserves 159.0 25,000 >55,000 157 >346 3.15 67 >1.500 21 >476 1,340.0 160,000 >800,000 119 >597 Copper 14.6 470 > 2,300 32 >158 Nickel 1.4 62 140 44 100 Zinc 9.4 220 1,900 23 202 Tin 0.26 6.1 >11 23 >42 Bauxite Lead Duration in years Resources Estimated Output of Key Base Metal Ores 2000 - 2025 Bauxite Lead Iron ore 2020 2025 Increase Annual 136.00 154.23 178.80 191.09 40.5 % 1.4 % 3.10 2.84 2.66 2.57 -17.1 % -0.8 % 1,070.00 1,289.25 1,449.06 1,528.96 42.9 % 1.4 % Copper 13.20 17.70 24.1 28.4 113.3 % 3.1 % Nickel 1.27 1.88 2.44 2.75 116.2 % 3.1 % Zinc 8.79 10.60 12.64 13.73 56.2 % 1.8 % Tin 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 11.3 % 0.4 % by the BGR, nearly 28% of the total global steel demand of around 1.1 billion tons in 2004 was accounted for by China (302 million tons), followed by the U.S. (11.4%) and Japan (7.4%). Between now and 2025, China will use more than 1.4 billion tons of crude steel per year, or more than four times its current consumption. Calculations made by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2006 estimate that the known iron reserves of 160 billion tons levels . Prices for metal raw materials have risen even more The high demand for copper is primarily a result of now accounts for 26% of global aluminum consump- dramatically than those for oil and gas. Consider copper, rapid economic growth in Asia. China’s demand for cop- tion. The material is also used in buildings and high- which is obtained mostly from iron sulfide ores, in per is growing at a double-digit pace, for example — voltage lines. According to the World Bank, global de- which it occurs alongside metals such as zinc, silver, and and the price of copper has more than quadrupled over mand for primary aluminum was around 32 million tons nickel. Copper is used mainly in electrical cables be- the last five years, from $2,000 per ton in 2003 to in 2005. cause of its good conductivity, and can also be found in $8,940 per ton in July 2008. Analysts at Commerzbank The primary aluminum requirement of China alone pipes for home construction and machines. With 3.67 Corporates & Markets believe the supply situation will more than doubled between 2001 and 2005, making it million tons, China accounted for just under 22% of normalize, however, and that prices will once again fall the top consumer, ahead of the U.S. Global demand for global copper consumption in 2005, followed by the below $8,000 per ton. One reason for this is a $5 billion aluminum is expected to rise to 47 million tons per year U.S. (13.3%) and Japan (7.1%). According to market ex- investment that will more than triple Chile’s copper min- by 2025. Global Petroleum Reserves in Billions of Barrels 99.0 UAE 97.6 Venezuela 80.0 Russia Nigeria Kazakhstan 60.0 41.5 36.2 30.0 In addition to conventional reserves, there are global reserves equivalent to 1.8 trillion barrels in the form of oil sand. The biggest deposits are to be found in Canada and Venezuela, each of which hold around onethird of total global reserves. 27.6 Qatar 115.0 Kuwait 47.5 Iran 136.3 Iraq Libya Russia 179.2 Iran Sylvia Trage Global Natural Gas Reserves in Trillions of Cubic Meters 259.8 Canada 2010 mechanical engineering industries. According to a study could last more than 120 years at current consumption Saudi Arabia 2000 next biggest steel consumers were the automotive and 25.8 Saudi Arabia 6.8 UAE 6.1 U.S. 5.8 Nigeria 5.1 Algeria 4.6 Venezuela 4.3 Source: Oil & Gas Journal, January 1, 2007 Extraction * in millions of barrels per day Source: Oil & Gas Journal, January 1, 2007 Consumption Levels and Reserves of Key Base Metal Ores Source: International Energy Agency (2008) It is important to differentiate between reserves and Saudi Arabia Iron ore Liquid Solution. In addition to growing interest in deep sea pipelines, the world is also turning to the transport of liquefied natural gas, or LNG. The production of liquefied natural gas is worthwhile only when a gas field is far from customers, or when the only alternative is a pipeline across impassable or dangerous terrain. To liquefy natural gas, it must first be cooled to a very low temperature (see Pictures of the Future, Spring 2008, p.46). This process requires powerful compressors, as do the huge gas tanks being built around the world to store supplies. “Combined with the unique range of products supplied by Siemens, these developments certainly do open up outstanding market opportunities for the company,” says Wappler — and increasing interest in the Pipeline Demo Center. Jeanne Rubner Balancing Demand and Production R Source: USGS (2006), USGS (2005), BGR (2005) — 2004 figures on the grounds of a former blast furnace (see Pictures of the Future, Spring 2008, p. 46). Six pipelines, including compressors and drives, can be operated simultaneously at full capacity at this center, which is the only one of its kind in Europe. “That’s important, because the operators of pipeline systems want to be sure that the lines work flawlessly,” says Wappler. As a rule, testing occurs at night, so that the Duisburg public utility company can supply enough electricity and gas. The most powerful compressors, which are needed for liquefied natural gas, each require up to 70 megawatts of power, whereas pipeline compressors operate in the range of 25 to 30 megawatts. Because of the need to conserve energy, compression technologies are becoming increasingly important. In the past, natural gas was flared off at oil fields. But today it is considered the raw material of the future, and every effort is made to recover it. In addition, natural gas produces less carbon dioxide when burned, as compared with petroleum, which is a plus in view of the struggle against climate change. “The trend is therefore toward gas,” says Wappler. As a consequence, high-performance compressors are needed to compress gas approximately every 150 to 200 kilometers. When it comes to deep water operations, the number of compressors must be minimized. Thus, in the case of the planned 1,220kilometer Baltic Sea pipeline, there will be only one compressor station; but it will be rated at 70 to 80 megawatts. Siemens’ experience in Belgium’s Zeebrugge harbor makes it an ideal partner for such projects. Zeebrugge is the European terminus for North Sea gas that flows in the summer from Great Britain to the continent. The harbor’s compressors rely on Siemens Technology. | Facts and Forecasts Source: Mineral resource trends, RWI, ISI, BGR, 2005 Raw Materials Nearly 36% of global natural gas reserves are located in Russia. (as of January 2007) Pictures of the Future | Fall 2008 29