A COMMON FUND TO FINANCE INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY AGREEMENTS PAUL D. REYNOLDS* The author outlines the framework for the negotiations of a Common Fund for the financing of commodity stocks pursuant to the Integrated Programme for Commodities established by UNCTAD in 1976. The author summarizes the progress of negotiations to present and analyzes the complex issues yet to be resolved. After examining the need for and the objectives of a Common Fund, the author outlines the detailed operational and structural components required for a successful Fund. Prospects for agreement on the establishment of a Common Fund,in this author's view, depend upon the willingness of developed and developing nations to negotiate a compromise on several critical issues: whether the Fund should serve as a source of new financing or a mere pooling of funds held by existing international commodity agreements; whether the Fund should finance commodity measures other than stocking; and whether the distribution of voting control shouldfavor the producing or the consuming nations. INTRODUCTION Commodity problems have been the subject of widespread study, concern and negotiation in recent years. The new awareness of the important role commodities play in the world economy is partially explained by the energy crisis of 1973. The oil embargo called the attention of many nations to their heavy dependence upon developing countries for the raw materials so necessary to an industrial society. It was feared that new cartels would be formed by the major commodity producers. 1 Looking to the example of the petroleum exporting states, the developing countries began to realize the poten* B.A., LL.B., Trinity College, Dublin; LL.M., Columbia: Assistant Professor of Law, Texas Tech University School of Law. The author wishes to thank Praeger Publishers for permission to adopt material from his forthcoming book, P. REYNOLDS, INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY AGREEMENTS AND THE COMMON FUND (1978). 1 See Bergsten, The Threat From the Third World, FOREIGN POL'y, Summer 1973, at 102; Krasner, Oil is the Exception, FOREIGN POL'y, Spring 1974, at 68 (an often cited debate); Noone, Materials Report/Shortages, Oil Price Hike Provide Impetus for Look at Policies, 6 NAT'L J. 743, 743 (1974); Frank, Trade Report/U.S. Takes First Hesitant Steps TowarrlShi[t in Commodities Policy, 7 NAT'L J. 913, 914-15 (1975). 887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 887 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS tial importance and influence of their commodity exports. Primary commodities were suddenly seen as potential leverage in the struggle of developing countries to increase their development through increasing income. The restructuring of commodity trade thus became an important component of the demands by developing countries for a new international economic order. To bring needed new revenues to their economies, these countries have pushed to create international agreements designed to increase commodity prices and stabilize prices at those higher levels. The notion of using trade agreements to redistribute greater income to developing countries has been a fundamental precept of the Group of 77, the negotiating caucus for the developing countries. 2 Within UNCT AD3 developing countries have often argued that their terms of trade vis-a-vis the industrial countries have been deteriorating. In particular, they have cited the instability of their commodity export income. To combat this problem, the Group of 77 met in Lima, Peru, in November of 1971 and agreed upon the Declaration and Principles for an Action Programme. 4 Generally known as the Declaration of Lima, this cohesive set of demands formed the basis for Third World proposals at the Sixth Special Session of the United Nations in April of 1974. From this session on raw materials and development emerged the now famous Declaration on the Establishment of a New International Economic Order 5 and the Pro2 The group of 77, which now includes over 100 developing states, was formed within the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) as a way to caucus together and thereby increase the negotiating strength of the developing states. The Joint Declaration of the Seventy-Seven Developing Countries was issued at the conclusion of the 1964 Geneva UNCT AD meeting. 3 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has become the major forum for negotiations over issues of world trade and economic development. It was established at the behest of developing and socialist countries because of their dissatisfaction with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the U.N. Council for Economic and Social Development. Within UNCT AD, negotiations are carried on by groups of countries. The Group of 77's counterparts are Group B, comprising industrialized states (generally the same membership as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD», and Group D, socialist states (except Yugoslavia which is in the Group of 77). The People's ' Republic of China belongs to no group. 4 The Declaration and Principles ofthe Action Programme of Lima, U.N. Doc. TDIl43 (N ov. 12, 1971) (report adopted by the Ministers of the Group of 77 and circulated by the SecretaryGeneral in connection with Provisional Agenda Item 8 of the UNCT AD 3d sess., held in Santiago, Apr. 13, 1972). The course of events in UNCTAD's development leading to a programme for commodities is described in Vastine, United States International Commodity Policy, 9 LAW & POL'y INT'L Bus. 401, 404-46 (1977). • G.A. Res. 3201,_ U.N. GAOR, Supp. (No. I) (Agenda Item 7), U.N. Doc. N9556 (1974), reprinted in 13 INT'L LEGAL MATERIALS 715 (1974). 888 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 888 1978 A COMMON FUND gramme of Action. 6 A central feature of the Programme is the establishment of International Commodity Agreements (ICAs) and an integrated programme for the commodities exported by developing countries. An Integrated Programme for Commodities (IPC) was accepted by UNCTAD IV when it adopted Resolution 93(IV)7 at Nairobi in 1976. The IPC seeks to stabilize markets for the primary commodities exported by the developing countries 8 in order to diminish the disparities between the economic conditions of the developed and developing countries. The basic element of the IPC is a series of International Commodity Agreements establishing buffer stock operations financed by a Common Fund. Common Fund financing would be used by ICAs to increase the benefits that developing countries derive from international trade. 9 Within the framework of the Common Fund, two immediate objectives are stated: the stabilization of prices and the increase (and protection from fluctuations) of real income received by de.yeloping countries for their exports. 10 The desirability and efficacy' of these goals have been much disputed among economists.u The relationship of price stabilization to export earnings has been one issue of particular concern. Developed countries are wary of using ICAs to increase the incomes of developing countries because they fear that price stabilization targets set at excessively high levels would cause inflationary pressures in their own economies. They also fear that artificially high support prices will lead to a rapid and irreversible accumulation of stockpiles, since exporters will be able to sell off surplus stock knowing full well that the commodity organizations will 6 G.A. Res. 3202, _ U.N. GAOR, Supp. (No.1) (Agenda Item 7), U.N. Doc. N9559 (1974), reprinted in 13 INT'L LEGAL MATERIALS 720 (1974). UNCTAD, Integrated Programme for Commodities, U.N. Doc. TD/RES/93(IV) (June 10, 1976) (Agenda Item 8 of the UNCTAD 4th sess., held at Nairobi, May 5,1976) [hereinafter cited as Resolution 93(IV)]. 8 !d. For a description of the elements of the Programme, see P. REYNOLDS, INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY AGREEMENTS AND THE COMMON FUND (1978). For a briefer description and full reference to the relevant U.N. documents, see Erb & Fisher, U.S. Commodity Policy: What Response to Third World Initiatives?, 9 LAw & POL'y INT'L Bus. 479 (1977). 9 H. O'NEILL, A COMMON INTEREST IN A COMMON FUND 18 (1977). 10 See UNCTAD, New Directions and New Structures for Trade and Development, U.N. Doc. TD/183/Rev. 1, at 22 (1977). 11 See INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT & INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, JOINT STAFF STUDY, THE PROBLEM OF PRIMARY PRODUCTS 42 (1969) [hereinafter cited as IMF/IBRD JOINT STAFF STUDY]; A. LAw, INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY AGREEMENTS 1-33 (1975); A. MACBEAN, EXPORT INSTABILITY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (1966). 7 889 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 889 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS have to purchase this surplus to maintain the price levels. The effect would be that funds lent by the developed countries to the commodity organizations would never be repaid. Whatever the merits of these views, the result has been that industrial countries are reluctant to commit substantial financing to the Common Fund. Simultaneous negotiations are being carried on to establish ten ICAs for an initial core group of eighteen commodities. 12 Progress has been slow but steady. At the present time three ICAs have authorized stocking measures: the Cocoa, Tin and Sugar Agreements. 13 Prospects also appear good for conclusion of agreements on rubber and tea, and much work has been done on new arrangements for coffee and copper. The negotiations for wheat and other grains are taking place outside the framework of the IPC so Fund financing will not be required. Throughout the negotiations on individual agreements the focus of attention has been on the Common Fund as the source of financing for thes,S new agreements. The next section of this article examines the present state of both ICA and Fund negotiations. The rest of the article addresses such topics as the purpose, scope, financing and structural elements of a prospective agreement establishing a Common Fund. Because prospects for successful conclusion of a Fund agreement remain uncertain, these remarks provide only a tentative outline of the elements and safeguards required in such an agreement. Such a tentative study is nonetheless helpful in evaluating the potential effects, strengths and weaknesses of any subsequent agreement to which the United States might become a party. PROGRESS OF N EGOTIA TIONS Although Resolution 93(IV)14 was adopted by consensus, recent developments indicate that the Resolution's meaning is understood 12 These eighteen commodities were adopted in Resolution 93(IV), note 7 supra. The ten "core" products for which early agreement is hoped are coffee, cocoa, tea, sugar, copper, tin, rubber, cotton,jute and hard fibres. The eight "other" commodities are bananas, vegetable oil, meat, tropical timber, iron ore, bauxite, manganese and phosphates. The Resolution specifically provides for additions or amendments at a later date. Id. art. II. UNCT AD had originally proposed inclusion of wheat and other grains but these were dropped when it became clear that the initial Programme aimed to cover export products of primary importance to developing countries. Developed nations are the largest exporters of grains. 13 International Cocoa Agreement, 1975, opened for signature Nov. 10, 1975, U.N. Doc. TD/COCOAA/I0 (1976); International Tin Agreement, done June 21, 1975, 28 U.S.T. 4619, T.I.A.S. No. 8607, _ U.N .T.S. _ (entered into force definitively for the United States onJune 14,1977); International Sugar Agreement, 1977,done Oct. 7, 1977, U.N. Doc. TD/SUGAR.9/10 (1977) (entered into force provisionally for the United States on Jan. I, 1978, T.I.A.S. No. _). 14 Resolution 93(IV), note 7 supra. 890 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 890 1978 A COMMON FUND differently by developing and developed countries. Developing countries in the Group of 77 argue that the Resolution calls for the establishment of a Fund as a source of finante. Developed countries maintain that this is only one possible meaning of the Resolution. 15 They prefer the Fund to be a mere pooling of the finances of commodity organizations. 16 Resolution 93(IV) sets out an ambitious schedule of simultaneous negotiations to take place by the end of 1978,17 with preparatory meetings and a negotiating conference on the Common Fund to take place by March 1977. 18 Three preparatory conferences were followed by the March 1977 negotiating conference. That conference, however, merely served as a forum for the restatement of previously known positions and failed to bring opponents any closer to compromise on the fundamental issues at stake. The conference did agree to resume in November 1977, and it is this last session which will be examined below. It is important to note, however, that a series of meetings held outside the framework of UNCTAD appeared to advance negotiations between March and November of 1977. During the Paris Conference on International Economic Cooperation (Paris Conference),19 developed states acceded to one, vaguely defined, concession. The heads of state of the EEC countries meeting in Rome were able to agree that there should be a Common Fund, although they envisioned it more as a clearing mechanism than the sole source of funds. 20 With at least a general objective in mind, by the close of the Paris Conference, the participating developed and developing countries could agree upon the "[e]stablishment of a common fund with purposes, objectives and other constituent elements to be further negotiated in UNCT AD."21 Reaction from proponents of the IPC and the Common Fund was, 15 The United States government made known its reservations at UNCTAD IV in May 1976, in panicular that the Common Fund would have to "await the results of developments on individual funds of ICAs. See Vastine, supra note 4, at 460-61. 16 This fundamental disagreement between the developing and developed countries is examined further at notes 45-53 infra and the accompanying text. 17 This deadline clearly will not be met. See note 36 infra. 18 See Resolution 93(IV), note 7 supra. 19 See Text of Final Communique, reprinted in 76 DEP'T STATE BULL. 650 (1977). 20 See Wall St. j., Mar. 28, 1977, at 14, col. 3; see also External Relations, EUROPEAN REP., No. 408, Apr. 8, 1977, at l. 21 Text of Final Communique, supra note 19, at 651. 1978] 891 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 891 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS of course, favorable. Gamani Corea, Secretary-General ofUNCTAD, stated that the decision of the Paris Conference on the Common Fund "has given an undoubted impetus to the negotiations on this question. It is now possible to move away from the debate on whether or not a Fund should be established and concentrate on the character and modalities of the Fund."22 Regrettably, agreement was more imagined than real. It soon became apparent that a serious stumbling block remained concerning the Fund's basic character and nature. American Under Secretary of State Richard Cooper, in explaining the Paris Conference to the Congress, said that "the Group of8 [industrial nations, also known as Group B] has not accepted the UNCT AD conception of a common fund."23 In fact, in the interim between the March and November meetings of UNCTAD's negotiating conference, these Group B countries developed an alternative concept of the Fund's structure. They formally proposed that the individual ICAs would allocate part of their funds to a "fund held in common" while providing stock and other guarantees against which market borrowing could be based. 24 Primary responsibility for the necessary financing would be placed with the ICAs, thus allowing the Fund to have its own finances without direct contributions. The Group of 77 rejected Group B's proposed outline of a Fund agreement as "not only limited in scope and self-contradictory in purpose, but above all so narrowly conceived as to amount to virtual negation of the kind of Common Fund envisioned at Nairobi."25 The Group of 77 rejected any approach solely dependent on the pooling 22 Speech by Gamani Corea, Secretary-General of UNCT AD, to the 63rd session of ECOSOC, in Geneva Ouly 13, 1977); excerpts reprinted in UNCTAD MONTHLY BULL., September 1977. 23 Cooper, Department Discusses Results of GIEG Meeting, 76 DEP'T STATE BULL. 92, 96 (1977) (statement by Under Secretary for Economic Affairs Richard N. Cooper submitted to the Joint Economic Committee). 24 UNCT AD, Elements for the Basis of a Common Fund, Proposal Submitted by Countries Members of Group B, U.N. Doc. TD/IPC/CF/CONF/L.5,at2-3(Nov. 7,1977) (Agenda Item 90f the U.N. Negotiating Conference on a Common Fund under the Integrated Programme for Commodities, 2d sess., held at Geneva, Nov. 7, 1978). For an outline of how the Fund would borrow against the stocks of ICAs, see UNCTAD, An Illustration of the Operation of the Financial Aspects of the Proposal Submitted by Countries Members of Group B, U.N. Doc. TD/IPC/CF/CONF/L.5/Add. I (Nov. 17, 1977) (Agenda Item 9 of the United Nations Negotiating Conference on a Common F~nd under the Integrated Programme for Commodities, 2d sess., held at Geneva, Nov. 7, 1977). 25 Statement made by Yugoslavia on Behalf of the Group of 77 to the Plenary Meeting on Nov. 18, 1977, United Nations Negotiating Conference on a Common Fund under An Integrated Programme for Commodities, Second Part, Geneva (Nov. 7, 1977) (mimeo). [Vol. 10:887 892 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 892 1978 A COMMON FUND of resources of individual ICAs and not requiring direct contributions by all states. They also maintained that Group B was unwilling to allow the Common Fund to finance measures other than stocking. In reply the members of Group B commented on the "pessimistic assessment" of the Group of 77. They pointed out that while direct contributions were not called for, the Group B proposal was a major new commitment to place their members' borrowing capacity at the disposal of ICAs. Group B also reaffirmed its willingness to discuss the relative responsibility of producers and consumers in providing the necessary financial arrangements. 26 At the forefront of debate during the next negotiating sessions, in November and December of 1977, was the issue of voting control, which had never been openly dealt with at previous meetings. Group B countries wanted to ensure that "all concerned are satisfied that the fund will be responsibly managed, and that decisions will be taken on a basis which safeguards the interests of all participants."27 The developing countries maintained, however, that voting rights should not be tied exclusively to capital subscriptions and that developing countries should be ensured a decisive role. 28 Other countries presented views which fell between the divergent positions of these two groups. China supported the Group of 77 position uniformly while other socialist states paid lip service to the needs for a Fund but desired to avoid direct contributions and to limit its activities to stock financing. 29 The Nordic countries advocated much greater concessions by their fellow industrialized nations, calling specifically for direct government contributions and financing of additional measures other than stocking. 30 As the negotiating conference became polarized and efforts to reconcile differences broke down, the Group of 77 called for ad26 Common Fund Negotiating Conference, Text of Group B Statement Delivered at Plenary on Nov. IB, 1977 (unclassified telegram from U.S. Mission Geneva to the Department of State, Washington, D.C., Nov. IB, 1977) (mimeo). 27 Group B Opening Statement delivered by Spokesman Barrass (United Kingdom) on Nov. 7, 1977 (unclassified telegram from U.S. Mission Geneva to the Department of State, Washington, D.C., Nov. B, 1977) (mimeo). 28 UNCTAD, Draft Report of the United Nations Negotiating Conference on a Common Fund Under the Integrated Programme for Commodities, Second Part, U.N. Docs. TDI IPC/CF/CONF/L.7 and Add. I (Nov. 30, 1977) [hereinafter cited as Draft Report of the Common Fund Negotiating Conference]. This document was not officially adopted. 29Id. Joint Nordic Statement in Plenary, United Nations Negotiating Conference on a Common Fund under the Integrated Programme for Commodities, Second Part, Geneva (Dec. I, 1977) (mimeo). 30 893 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 893 1978 LAW & POLICY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS journment, stating that "it is futile to continue until the developed countries demonstrate the necessary political will to make future negotiations meaningful."31 In the closing session, Mr. Sekulic of Yugoslavia, chairman of the Group of 77, called for adjournment and denounced the developed countries for being unwilling to agree upon the fundamental aspects of a Common Fund consistent with Resolution 93(IV) and thus failing to fulfill their commitments made at the Paris Conference. 32 Group B denied this charge, stating that their counterproposal was in keeping with the understanding reached at the Paris Conference. Group B countries pointed out that, in regard to financing measures other than stocking, they have consistently kept an open mind. Pointing to the issue of direct contributions, Group B countries made it clear that they agree that the fund will, in one way or another, receive substantial financial support from governments. The disagreement was only over what was a proper channel through which that support should come. 33 By the close of the 1977 conferences the dispute over these two issues, financing and direct contributions, left little time to deal at all with the third crucial issue-management and voting contro1. 34 Since December 1977, informal talks have been going on in an effort to renew negotiations. In mid-December representatives of 100 U.N. member countries urged exploration of possible resumption of talks. 35 As of July 1978 no agreement to renew negotiations had been reached. 36 N.Y. Times, Dec. I, 1977, § D, at I, col. 4. See also Wall St. J., Dec. 2,1977, at 22, col. 3. Statement Made by Yugoslavia on Behalf of the Group of 77 on Dec. I, 1977, United Nations Negotiating Conference on a Common Fund under the Integrated Programme for Commodities, Second Pan, Geneva (Nov. 7, 1977) (mimeo). 33 Group B Statement Made During Final Session of the Common Fund Negotiating Conference on Dec. I, 1977 (unclassified telegram from U.S. Mission Geneva to the Department of State, Washington, D.C., Dec. 2, 1977) (mimeo). 34 See Wall St. J., note 31 supra. However it did become apparent that voting control was an issue giving rise to serious conflict. See text accompanying notes 140-64 infra. 35 7 IMF SURVEY 27 (1978). 36 The Ad Hoc Intergovernmental Committee for the IPC adopted a resolution calling for a reconvening of the Negotiating Conference, hopefully around November 13-30, 1978. The Committee also extended the timetable of the IPC for one year, to the end of 1979. The Committee reponed that preparatory meetings had not yet been held on two of the IPC commodities-bananas and bauxite. UNCTAD MONTHLY BULL., August 1978, at 3. See also UNCTAD, Comprehensive Report on Progress under Conference Resolution 93(IV), U.N. Doc. TD/B/IPClACl20 (june 15, 1978) (Provisional Agenda Item 2 of the Ad Hoc Intergovernmental Committee, 6th Sess., held at Geneva, July 10, 1978); UNCTAD MONTHLY BULL., July 1978, at 3-4 (UNCTAD's Secretary-General is interviewed on the prospects for agreement at UNCTAD). For alternating optimistic and pessimistic news analysis of prospects for agreement, see Wall St. J., May 5, 1978, at 24, col. 1 and id., June 1, 1978, at 26, col. 1. 31 32 894 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 894 1978 A COMMON FUND The breakdown in negotiations underscores the differences between the developed and developing countries over emerging issues in the new international economic order. An understanding of those issues and their possible resolution requires an in-depth examination of the purpose, scope, financing and structural elements of a prospective agreement on the proposed Common Fund. PuRPOSES AND OBJECTIVES OF THE COMMON FUND The Need for Increased Financing As stated above, the primary purpose of the Common Fund would be to provide financing to international commodity organizations for the cost of operating a program of buffer stocks. According to the Secretariat of UNCTAD, the great importance attached to negotiating separate financing for the IPC stems from the fact that inadequate financing has long been a major obstacle to commodity stabilization. U ntiI the problem of financing is resolved, further agreements on the Integrated Programme for Commodities will not easily be concluded. [T]he negotiation of commitments on international commodity trade, including arrangements for stocks, would be greatly assisted, and the differing national interests more easily reconciled, in the larger context of a number of commodity negotiations initiated or contemplated more or less concurrently, if there were a financial authority ready to support operational arrangements of an appropriate kind. The secretariat believes that a common facility or fund for stock financing could act as a catalyst ... [and] would help to resolve the difficulties experienced in the past when governments have discussed or negotiated a commodity-bycommodity approach to stabilization arrangements. 37 This rationale is not accepted by the Group B developed countries who believe that lCAs have not been hindered by a lack offinance. 38 UNCT AD, An Integrated Programme for Commodities: A Common Fund for the Financing of Commodity Stocks, V.N. Doc. TD/B/C.I1166!Supp.2 (Dec. 12, 1974) (Provisional Agenda Item 5 of Report of Comm. on Commodities, Trade & Dev. Bd., for the 8th sess., held at Geneva, Feb. 10, 1975). 38 See UNCT AD, Report of the Second Preparatory Meeting for the Negotiation of a Common Fund, U.N. Doc. TD/B/IPc/CF/6 Annex I, at 2 (Feb. 10, 1977) [hereinafter cited as 37 895 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 895 1978 LAW & Pouey IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS This view is supported by the fact that secretariats of existing ICAs oppose the notion of a Common Fund, but their opposition may derive from the fear that their present independent financing will be merged with the new Common Fund. 39 In this regard, the United States has argued that creating a Common Fund before establishing additional commodity organizations is like putting the cart before the . horse. Underlying the U.S. rationale may be the fear that the Fund will prove to be too effective as a catalyst, stimulating a rush to form commodity organizations to tap this new source of funding. 40 Lack of adequate finances has been a problem in previous Tin Agreements 41 and was mentioned by Bolivia as the basis for its refusal to ratify the most recent agreement. 42 In the case of the Cocoa Agreements, however, pricing problems rather than finance appear to have been the cause of difficulties. 43 While evidence dealing with existing agreements does not go to the root of the UN CTAD assertions on financing, unsuccessful negotiations on other ICAs show that financial difficulties are only one of the many obstacles to greater use of ICAs. Other obstacles, such as the inevitably complex and time consuming nature of such negotiations may be equally significant. 44 Common Rather than Joint or Individual Financing The reason UNCT AD advocates an independent Common Fund rather than self-financing within each I CA can be explained in part by Report of the Second Preparatory Meeting]. The Swiss Government lias also denied the UNCT AD rationale. See UNCT AD, Proposals by Governments, Addendum (comment by Switzerland on the Question of a Common Fund), U.N. Doc. TD/B/IPClCF/3/Add.7 (Feb. 25, 1977) (Agenda Item 2 of the Third Preparatory Meeting for the Negotiation of a Common Fund, held at Geneva, Feb. 21, 1977) [hereinafter cited as Swiss Comments]. 39 See Prinskey, Moves to Resume North-South Dialogue Get Under Way: Developments Seen Soon, Wall St.j., Mar. 7,1977, at 13, col. 1. 40 See J. BEHRMAN, INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY AGREEMENTS (1977). 41 See generally Barkman, The International Tin Agreements, 9 j. WORLD TRADE L. 495 (1975). 42 Although subsequently agreeing to the new agreement, Bolivia has demanded that the Tin Agreement be funded by consumer nations and not merely producing states. See 37 FACTS ON FILE 169 (1977). 43 See Kofi, The International Cocoa Agreements, 11 j. WORLD TRADE L. 37, 37 (1977). 44 In the case of cocoa (which has adequate financing), the 1972 Agreement took 17 years to draft, negotiate, and ratify. See id. at 42-44. A U.N. study asserts that most developed market economy countries are still giving the problem of development a low priority. UNCTAD, Trade and Development Policies in the 1970s: Report by the Secretary-General of VNCT AD for the First Review and Appraisal of the Implementation of the International Development Strategy, V.N. Doc. TD/B/429/Rev.l, at 15 (1973). For a comprehensive description oflCA negotiations by a participant, see Bilder, The International Coffee Agreement: A Case History in Negotiation, 28 LAw & CONTEMP. PROB. 328, 347-75 (1963). 896 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 896 1978 A COMMON FUND the integrated nature of the IPC and in part by the need to increase the line of credit available to each buffer stock. Price cycles of commodities in the IPC are out of phase; prices of several commodities are going up while others are going down. Because of this, some buffer stock managers would be selling while others are buying. Independent studies of ten core commodities show that their fluctuations usually do not move together and that this decreases the total amount of funds needed under the IPC as compared with the funds needed by a set of individual funds. 45 Industrialized countries advocate a "pooling" of funds which they maintain would preserve both the benefits obtained under a Common Fund and the integrity of individual ICAs. In a pooling arrangement each ICA would raise its own financial resources and deposit these funds into a common "pool," borrowing from it as necessary.46 The socialist countries (Group D) agreed with the developed nations that the Fund should be a "pool" of resources held by the ICAs, although they left the door open for possible "direct, limited subcriptions" to the Fund. 47 This is in line with the pattern adopted by the socialist states in the past of avoiding or minimizing contributions to international financial organizations. Groups Band D feel that financing should come largely from the ICAs because the states that produce and consume individual commodities will always be the most responsive to the needs of that commodity's organization. They also argue that present negotiations are complex enough without having to take on complete renegotiation of existing agreements which have self-financing provisions. UNCT AD argues that only by way of a separate Common Fund which would itself raise financing for relending to commodity organizations can the historical financial impediment to successful ICA negotiation be overcome. Under this approach, the Fund is not a "pool" but is a "source"-a source of both funds and a stimulus to negotiations of ICAs. 48 In the most recent rounds of negotiation,49 the developed countries submitted a proposal for a hybrid scheme combining elements of both the "pool" and "source" approaches. They proposed that the supra note 40, at 40--41. H. O'NEILl, supra note 9, at 29. 47 Draft Report of the Common Fund Negotiating Conference, supra note 28, at 6. 48 Id. at 3-5. 49 See Wall St.]., Nov. 8, 1977, at 16, col. 4; id., Dec. 2,1977, at 26, col. 5; N.Y. Times, Dec. 1, 1977, § D, at 1, col. 3. .. ]. BEHRMAN, 46 897 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 897 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS capital structure of "a common fund should be based on deposits from these [I CAs] which should match the rights to draw credits from the Fund with their obligations to make deposits with it, and the Fund's rights to withdraw deposits from [ICAs] with its obligations to offer them a guaranteed tranche of credit."50 The Fund would be a "source" in that it would borrow additional money for relending to commodity organizations. This borrowing would be secured by stock warrants (warehouse receipts) lodged with the Fund by ICAs as they purchased commodity stocks with their borrowed funds. The Fund could also borrow against government guarantees. 51 These guarantees would be from Group B countries, who consider their offer to· place some of their borrowing capability at the Fund's disposal to be a . . major concessIOn. The Group B hybrid proposal upset UNCTAD and the Group of 77, who had felt that the establishment of a Common Fund had alread y been agreed to by developed countries at the 1977 Paris Conference. 52 The Group of77 charged that Group B's proposal was in conflict with the agreement reached at the 1977 Paris Conference and that it was self-contradictory and "so narrowly conceived that it virtually negated the kind of common fund envisaged in resolution 93(IV)."53 The Group felt there was no point in continuing negotiations. No date has been agreed upon for resumption of negotiations on the Fund itself although 100 U.N. member countries have recommended that consultations be held. Draft Report of the Common Fund Negotiating Conference, supra note 28, at 7. [d. at 8. 52 The Conference on International Economic Cooperation held its final meeting in Paris on June 2, 1977. The text of the final communique states that participants agreed upon, inter alia, "[e ]stablishment of a common fund with purposes, objectives and other constituent elements to be further negotiated in UNCTAD." Text of Final Communique, supra note 19, at 651. Developing states would have done well to listen to the explanations of this "agreement" given by representatives of industrialized states. Under Secretary Cooper of the U.S. State Department stated to Congress that a common fund in the U.S. view was to be established "in conjunction with individual agreements to stabilize prices." Cooper, supra note 23, at 94. He further stated, "[a]s the language implies, the Group of 8 [industrialized countries] has not accepted the UNCTAD conception of a common fund." [d. at 96 (emphasis added). C. Fred Bergsten, Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, made it clear that, in addition, these countries did not agree that there was a need for early establishment of the Fund. Bergsten stated, "[w]e reject the premise on which the proposal is based-that it is necessary to put funding in place to permit the conclusion of international agreements on particular commodities." Dep't of Treasury News Release, June 27, 1977, at 10. 53 Draft Report of the Common Fund Negotiating Conference, supra note 28, at II. 50 51 898 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 898 1978 A COMMON FUND Price and Income Stabilization It seems that all sides accept as an objective for the Fund a general goal of "stabilization," although it is not clear whether this refers to price stability or export income stability. Eleven separate policy objectives have been suggested for stabilization activities, namely, stabilization of prices, foreign exchange earnings, quantities, producer incomes, primary producing land incomes, balance of payments of world trade, terms of trade, business cycles, markets for industrial production and political stability.54 The most generally accepted goal of a Common Fund is price stabilization. It is clear, upon a consideration of its causes, that price instability can never be totally eliminated, only lessened. The output of agricultural commodities is subject to the vagaries of disease, pests and weather. Mineral commodity trade is subject to the general economic conditions in the industrialized countries and, to a lesser degree, to the periodic upheavals of politics and wars. All commodities are subject to long term general market trends, such as decline in demand or substitution of synthetics. These market effects are particularly severe in agriculture because of the lack of control over many small producers and the inability to vary production on short notice, as contrasted to industry, where production can quickly be cut back when demand or prices decline. A Fund programme primarily geared to stocking can do nothing to attack these causes but can only modify their effects. It is important to note that income stabilization will not necessarily result from price stabilization. In the case of commodities where changes of supply predominate, the prices and volume of exports tend to move in opposite directions, thereby moderating fluctuations in earnings. However, where changes in demand predominate, prices and volume tend to move in the same direction, intensifying swings in earmngs. Consider for the moment agricultural products for which demand is fairly stable but which are subject to great swings in supply. When a bumper crop occurs, the price drops as quantity rises. Conversely, when a natural disaster leads to a shortage, the price goes up, but because the quantity supplied has fallen, overall income may decline, or increase only slightly, if at all. Fluctuations in earnings thus do not necessarily follow changes in price. Solutions to one type of instability 54 For a discussion of leA objectives, see A. LAw, supra note 11, at 75-85. 899 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 899 1978 LAW & POLICY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS are not necessarily applicable to others. Stabilizing the price of a commodity such as sugar cannot control decreases in demand or problems in production, yet either factor could cause a drop in sugar export earnings. Price stabilization might actually destabilize commodity export earnings in some situations. 55 Where a fall in supply results in a rise in price while demand remains unchanged, income can remain the same or rise. But if the price is stabilized there is simply less to sell at the same price. Price stabilization, in this case, causes lower income. In some cases, then, UNCT AD must elect which to stabilize-price or income. One commentator has noted that the integrated approach covering many commodities will permit trade-offs, as between states whose incomes are destabilized, through price stabilization for one commodity and price increases for another. 56 The IPC thus leaves the matter of stabilizing income and prices in a somewhat ambiguous state. It may also seem that in trying both to improve income and protect it from fluctuations, that ambiguity is made inevitable, but this is not necessarily so. Improved income can be accomplished through higher prices supported by stocks and multilateral commitments to buy and sell agreed quantities at higher prices, while the effect of income fluctuations can be moderated through compensatory finance. Just as providing funds for price stabilization will not guarantee the result of income stabilization, neither can it be guaranteed that the use of buffer stocks will reverse long term price decline. A buffer stock can only alter long term price decline if it has continuous financial capacity to buy and never sell, a capacity which the Fund clearly will not be able to support. Some supplementary source of control must be introduced to shore up prices. Export or production controls aimed at reducing supply can force prices, and hence income, up over the long run,57 but UNCTAD proposals on stocking arrangements do not require ICAs to use such production or export controls. Whenever stocking is used to raise prices, the financial capacity of the Common Fund should be protected by requiring that production controls be used to supplement stocking arrangements. This is a basic 55 Meier, UNCTAD Proposalsfor International Economic Reform, 19 STAN. L. REV. 1173, 1195 (1967); M. RADETZKI, INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKET ARRANGEMENTS 6--8 (1970). 56 H. O'NEILL, supra note 9, at 21. 57 See Kreinin & Finger, A Critical Suroey of the New International Economic Order, 10 J. WORLD TRADE L. 493, 503 (1976); Loumiet, Toward an International Commodity Agreement on Petroleum, 5 DENVER J. INT'L L. & POL'y 485, 493 (1975). 900 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 900 1978 A COMMON FUND legal safeguard which, it appears, should be required for an effective Common Fund agreement. Other objectives identified for the IPC include the reform of commodity production; greater access to markets; diversification into processing; improvements in competitiveness through research and development programs; promotion of natural products; and improvements in marketing and distribution. In each of these other objectives resides the subsidiary goal of increasing export earnings of developing countries. Although there are constant references in the UNCT AD documentation 58 to stabilizing both export income and prices, it is safe to conclude that it is income stabilization which is of real interest to the Group of 77. Financing Measures Other Than Stocking In the preparatory meetings leading up to the March 1977 negotiating conference on the Common Fund, the objective of price stabilization emerged as an almost universally accepted legitimate use of fund resources. 59 There was, however, widespread disagreement as to whether Fund financing should be used for other IPC goals, such as diversification. The Group of 77 urged financing of measures other than stocking, while Group D socialist states desired clarification of the content and scope of "other measures" .60 Norway accepted the goals set out for the IPC Programme but felt that financing measures other than stocking must be based on the cooperation of consumers as well as producers and through a different "window" under separate lending criteria. 61 The most recent report of the Secretariat of UNCTAD acknowledges that the "main function of the Fund would be to finance commodity stocking arrangements," but that "[h]ow far the fund might assist in the other international measures under the Integrated 58 See, e.g., UNCT AD, An Integrated Programme for Commodities: The Role of International Commodity Stocks, U.N. Doc. TD/B/C.1I166/Supp. I, at 5-6 (Dec. 12, 1974) (Provisional Agenda Item 5 of Report ofComm. on Commodities, Trade & Dev. Bd., for the 8th sess., held at Geneva, Feb. 18, 1975) [hereinafter cited as International Commodity Stocks] . • 9 See Repon of the Second Preparatory Meeting, supra note 38, at 6-8. 60 [d. at 8. Subsequently, Group B moderated its opposition to a point where it would consider Fund financing of other measures but desired clarification on the nature of these measures. See id. at 9-10; Draft Report of the Common Fund Negotiating Conference, supra note 28, at 6. 61 UNCTAD, Proposals by Governments, U.N. Doc. TD/B/IPc/CF/3 (Nov. 1976) (Provisional Agenda Item 3 of the Preparatory Meeting for the Negotiation of a Common Fund, held at Geneva, Nov. 29, 1976) [hereinafter cited as Proposals by Governments]. 1978] 901 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 901 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS Programme is a matter for decision by governments, taking into account the resources that would be required and the extent to which the commodity organizations themselves, or existing international financing institutions, would undertake these activities."62 This suggests some link with existing IMF, World Bank or European Development Fund operations. The report goes on to suggest a compromise which would not impede the development of the powers of the Fund, namely "agreement in principle that the specific purpose of the Common Fund is the financing of commodity stocks and such other measures as the governing body of the Fund may determine."63 The Common Fund has been endorsed for a number of somewhat divergent reasons and its various proponents expect it to fulfill differing objectives. This absence of a clearly defined rationale and set of objectives makes it difficult to evaluate whether the Fund proposals . will fulfill their underlying policy goals. SCOPE OF PROPOSED FUND The first factor in determining the scope of any Fund is its commodity coverage. The Fund would initially provide financing for the ten core commodities for which early agreement on establishment of stocks is hoped. It is not envisioned that stocks, and hence stock financing, would be necessary in the case of all eight other commodities. For example, stockpiling of certain perishables, like bananas, is not feasible. Stocks are to be established on a scale sufficient to assure complete disposal of production, based on a realistic assessment of consumption, and to assure adequate supplies for importing countries. FINANCING: NEEDS AND SOURCES Controls Over the Factors Affecting Financing The decisions on stock size, initial purchase price and subsequent buffer range, decisions that will not be made directly by the Fund, are all vital to determination of Fund finances. If the Fund is established 62 UNCT AD, Consideration of Issues Relating to the Establishment and Operation of a Common Fund, U.N. Doc. TD/B/IPc/CF/2, at 5 (Nov. 10, 1976) (Provisional Agenda Item 3 of the Preparatory Meeting for the Negotiation of a Common Fund, held at Geneva, Nov. 29, 1976) [hereinafter cited as Issues Relating to a Common Fund). 63 [d. 902 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 902 1978 A COMMON FUND at an early stage its size and structure would likely affect the decisions of individual ICAs. Ultimately the Fund should have the power, as recommended by the Secretariat of UN CT AD, to assess the economic soundness of a commodity agreement and refuse financing if a proposed agreement is unsound. No firm guidelines have been set out as to the size of stocks to be established by the ICAs. Thus, if a $6 billion Fund is established there will be nothing to prevent a new Copper ICA from establishing a stock size requiring initial funding of $3-$4 billion. 64 UNCTAD, it is assumed, will informally guide negotiations on stock size for each commodity. One clear advantage to early estabiishment of a Fund would be that its terms and conditio~s governing assistance to commodity organizations would be known in advance while many ICAs are still to be negotiated. UNCT AD has suggested that the Fund management be given power to set guidelines, price objectives, adequacy of buffer stocks and supply management measures. 65 This would be a useful tool in harmonizing the standards and safeguards existing in ICAs within the IPC. The IPC also encourages the use of multilateral commitments to regulate supply, demand and price at the same time. Through such multilateral commitments importing members agree to buy all or a large portion of their imports from exporter members and the exporters agree to supply the quantities agreed upon within a stated price range. 66 Such commitments can be highly supportive of buffer stock operations, since they provide a floor under supply, demand and price, but to be successful they must cover a significant share of the world market. It is thus strongly urged that, as a pre-condition to any financing of leAs over an initial minimum finance level, the organization should secure multilateral commitments which cover the majority of trade in each commodity. Such a pre-condition clause should act as an incentive for negotiators to include multilateral commitments within ICAs, thus providing an additional safeguard against drainage of funds from the Common Fund. 64 However, there is a recent trend to bring commodity negotiations under the UNCT AD umbrella even if study groups had existed in other forms such as the Food and Agricultural Organization. This has helped the Group of 77 by permitting discussion to take place within an· organization of much wider membership, where they have a larger number of votes. It has also meant that decisions are not necessarily made by just those producers and importers directly involved with the particular commodity under consideration. The United States, in particular, has objected to this trend. See generaUy Vastine, supra note 4, at 466, 470-71. 6S Issues Relating to a Common Fund, supra note 62, at 9. 66 Loumiet, supra note 57, at 495. 1978] 903 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 903 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS Capital Requirements 1. Size of Stocks Perhaps the most important political and economic decision of the Common Fund will be the size of minimum stock levels. An early UNCTAD study made cost estimates based on the need to hold one and one-half to three months annual supply of world trade in stock. 67 The three month period is an average based on weighing a large number of factors such as support prices, the margin between floor and ceiling prices, and the sensitivity of production and consumption to random factors. Lord Keynes, in a memorandum to the British Treasury in 1942, thought that three months was in the range of the appropriate time period although probably too short. 68 Not all commodities require a three month stock in order to control market fluctuations, but, if it were decided to hold all stocks at three month rather than one and one-half month levels, 100 percent additional financing w<;mld be required. 2. Cost of Acquisition The UNCTAD secretariat's latest calculations estimate that $4.5 to 5 billion would be necessary to finance stock arrangements for the ten core commodities; an additional $1 to 1.5 billion would be required to finance other commodities and non-stocking activities. 69 Initial financing of about $3 billion may be required by 1979. The total financial requirement of $6 billion is predicated on the assumption that the Fund would be the only source of finance for these operations.70 Although it is apparently assumed that the ICAs would pay the full purchase price, it might be possible for the ICAs to buy on margin, putting down only 10 or 20 percent. Certain additional assumptions are made which affect the size of stock levels required for the operation of the Common Fund. 67 International Commodity Stocks, supra note 58, at 21. The figures suggested for copper have been criticized as inadequate. See Maidenberg, Commodities: Price Pacts-Aid by Another Name', N.Y. Times, Mar. 21,1977, at 46, col. 2; Wall St. j., Mar. 18,1977, at 26, col. 1. 68 See Keynes, The International Control of Raw Materials (a Memorandum to the Treasury, April 14, 1942), reprinted in 4 j. INT'L ECON. 299, 310 (1974). 69 UNCTAD, Common Fund: Financial Requirements, U.N. Doc. TD/S/IPClCF/L.2, at 7 (1976) (Provisional Agenda Item 2 of the Second Preparatory Meeting for the Establishment of a Common Fund, held at Geneva, Jan. 24,1977) [hereinafter cited as Common Fund Financial Requirements). 70 Issues Relating to a Common Fund, supra note 62, at 6. 904 [Vol. 10:887- HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 904 1978 A COMMON FUND (a) Trade-ifJs Simulation studies indicate that individual products within the integrated group of commodities fluctuate at different rates and during different time periods. Proceeds from sales of one commodity stockpile therefore would be returned to the Fund and then re-lent for buying other stocks. Group B has maintained that UNCTAD underestimated acquisition costs and overestimated offsetting price movements. 71 The UNCTAD study admitted that the offsetting effects might be overestimated especially if commodity price movements became more synchronized,72 which in fact happened in 1974 and 1975. 73 (b) Maximum Stock Holdings The figures are based on the estimated maximum size of stock necessary to achieve the goal of maintaining the price of each commodity within the range of plus or minus 10 percent around the stated target price over the period 1979-1987. Since less than the maximum will be required for all ten core commodity stocks at any one time, actual average stocks held would probably cost only $3 billion. The estimates are subject to decisions made by each ICA as to stock size and price floors and ceilings. These decisions will affect the financial requirements of the Fund but will remain essentially outside the Fund's control. Indirect protection of Fund resources could be attained by limiting the size or duration of stocking that the Fund would finance for anyone ICA. 3. Non-stocking Operations Consensus has not been reached on the question of whether the Common Fund should support such non-stocking operations as diversification projects, research and development, or market promotion. 74 Fund financing for any such operations could be done in 11. UNCTAD, Report of the First Preparatory Meeting for the Negotiation of a Common Fund, held at Geneva, Nov. 29-Dec. 4, 1976, U.N. Doc. TD/B/IPClCF/4, at II (Dec. 22, 1976) [hereinafter cited as Report of the First Preparatory Meeting]. 72 Common Fund Financial Requirements, supra note 69, at II. 73 [d. H See VNCT AD, Common Fund: Financing of Operations Other than Stocking, V.N. Doc. TD/B/IPClCF/L.3 (Dec. 29, 1976) (Provisional Agenda Item 2 of the Second Preparatory Meeting for the Establishment of a Common Fund, held at Geneva, Jan. 24, 1977). The socialist states have ex.pressed concern about these other operations as they might create a "conflict of 905 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 905 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS cooperation with other multilateral lending institutions, such as the World Bank, or through a second "window" of the Fund. Since loans for non-stocking purposes would probably need to be long-term, whereas loans for stocking would use revolving credits, a second window would lend on different terms. This second account would be financed in part by special grants from member countries. 75 Additional funds would come from transfers of net income accruing to the Fund's ordinary capital, much as the World Bank transfers net income to its third window, the International Development Agency.76 The Secretariat recommends an initial lending limit of $500 million for non-stocking operations during the first three years of operation of the Fund. 4. Storage Costs The cost of storage-warehouse rent, insurance, turning charges for replacing and selling older stocks and interest charges on the purchase price-is critical in determining the length of the stocking cycle and the margin between the buying and selling prices. No other technical aspect of the UN CTAD proposals has been subject to as great a dispute as this. ICAs must sell their stocks at a price which covers total costs in order to fully repay the Common Fund. If average annual storage costs are 5 percent and interest charges on the purchase price are 10 percent, then a 15 percent increase would be required after one year merely to cover these two costs, exclusive ot additional insurance and administrative expenses. A further difficulty is that storage costs will vary with the grade and quantity of the commodity. 77 Commodities such as bananas cannot be stored at all while other commodities are subject to varying degrees of perishability and additional technical considerations. For example, cocoa, unlike coffee, cannot be easily stored in the region where it is produced since the quality of cocoa quickly deteriorates in the hot and priorities" within the Common Fund. See Report of the Second Preparatory Meeting, supra note 38, at 9. 15 See generally VNCT AD, Common Fund: Mode of Operations, V.N. Doc. TD/B/IPClCFI L.5, at 7 Oan. 19, 1977) (Provisional Agenda Item 2 of the Second Preparatory Meeting for the Negotiation of a Common Fund, held at Geneva, Jan. 24, 1977) [hereinafter cited as Common Fund: Mode of Operations). 16 Both IMF/IBRD and VNCTAD have prepared studies: see IMF/IBRD JOINT STAFF STUDY, note 11 supra; VNCTAD, Commodity Problems and Policies: The Development of an International Commodity Policy, V.N. Doc. TD/8/Supp. 1, at 52-56 (1967). 17 International Commodity Stocks, supra note 58, at II. 906 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 906 1978 A COMMON FUND humid climates in which it is grown. Copper, on the other hand, can be placed in open air bulk storage in the producing state. The estimated annual storage cost for copper ranges from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent of the average price per ton of copper, whereas the estimated storage cost for bauxite ranges from 6.8 percent to 13.1 percent. 78 These estimates are based on warehousing in London or Rotterdam. 79 Admittedly, they do not reflect lower costs of storage if commodities were kept in the developing countries where they are produced. 80 Nor do these figures include the enormous turning charges for handling the replacement of perishable stocks to avoid deterioration. Unfortunately, no one knows for sure what average annual storage charges will be. These charges will be borne by ICAs but if they are too high the viability of the Common Fund will be undermined. 5. Supply Controls Excessive accumulation of stock, indicative of a floor price that is set too high, could place a tremendous demand on the credit resources of the Fund. It is therefore important that the Fund agreement stipulate that each ICA must provide for periodic re-examination of price levels to qualify for Fund lending. Since such decisions take time, in the interim ICAs should be required to have stand-by authority (controlled by the buffer stock managers rather than a political council) to impose export quotas on a predetermined pro rata share of export sales. For commodities with long declining price trends the Fund should condition further financing upon approval of a diversification plan as well as export quotas. 6. Additional Factors A number of additional variables can affect the capital requirements of the Fund: (a) the intervention price; (b) the margin between floor and ceiling prices; (c) the degree to which export or production quotas are used, thereby reducing the financial requirements for stocking operations; (d) the magnitude of demand and supply responses to changes in price; and (e) the level of national stocks, since if these are lowered or transferred to new ICAs then a perceived need 78 79 80 Id. These figures use 1974 as the base year. Id. Id. 1978] 907 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 907 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS for higher reserves (strategic or otherwise) may increase the cost of international stocks. Of these technical considerations the first three are within the control of ICAs but the last two, as well as other unstated factors, are controlled by market forces. None appear to be controllable by die Common Fund except indirectly through conditions attached to ICA lending. Certain other considerations, such as the length of time a particular commodity should be supported in a declining market, are matters of policy. The capital requirements of the Fund are thus subject to a wide number of technical and political variables, and as UNCTAD has reported, "no broad consensus exists at this stage on the amount of money, if any, which may be required to help stabilize the trade of one of these commodities-let alone the total."81 FINANCIAL VIABILITY In principle, commodity organizations should be able to make profits on either a rising or falling market, but in practice it is easier to make profits on an upward swing, with sales taking place at price levels higher than the cost of acquisition. Gross profits must cover the cost of the storage and interest charges outlined above, thus the aim is to ensure that large stocks are not held for long periods. Holding periods are largely determined by the length of price cycles: "the more frequent the successive price peaks, i.e., the shorter the cycle, the greater the opportunity of selling the stock at a profit."82 An UNCTAD study of the original list of 13 commodities shows an average price cycle of 22 months with stocks being held for an average of 18 months. 83 In some cases a few core commodities would be held for significantly longer maximum periods, e.g., sugar and rubber for about 2 years, and coffee 84 for almost 4 years. 85 This UNCTAD study concludes Report of the Second Preparatory Meeting, supra note 38, at 2. UNCTAD, A Common Fund for the Financinl/: of Commodity Stocks: Amounts, Terms and Prospective Sources of Finance, U.N. Docs. TD/B/C.I1184 and Corr.l, at 10 (July 3, 1975) (Agenda Item 5 of Report of Comm. on Commodities, Trade & Dev. Bd., for the 8th sess., pt. 2, held at Geneva, July 21, 1975) [hereinafter cited as Amounts, Terms and Prospective Sources of Finance). 83 Id. 8. Coffee, being atypical. requires additional non-stocking measures.ld. at 12. 8. Id. The figures in the text refer to the downswing holding period (the half-cycle). The maximum complete price cycle estimates are 26 months for sugar, 42 months for rubber and 79 months for coffee. 81 8' 908 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 908 1978 A COMMON FUND that if a commodity must be held for 3 years at a storage cost of 4 percent per annum and 10 percent interest charge, then the accrued charges of 48 percent are not compatible with stabilization. 86 A market that would allow a price margin of 48 percent between buying and selling prices is simply not stabilized. At the very least some stocking operations will not be profitable and may entail substantial losses. Professor Behrman's economic analysis of projected Fund operations indicates that financial viability may be hindered in a number of ways.87 His studies show that for several products supply increases will occur in response to the initial price increases caused by stocking, which will drive prices down after 6 or 7 years. The market dynamics will also cause periods as long as 6 or 7 years on average (in the case of eight core commodities) where particular buffer stocks will neither buy nor sell. Thus, although the Havana Charter88 recommends a 5 year duration for ICAs, a longer period may be required to ensure their effectiveness. For the same reasons a Fund agreement should also be for more than 5 years. 89 Behrman, whose estimates of minimum stock level requirements for the core commodities are 75 percent higher than UNCTAD's, further concludes that the suggested capital of $6 billion will be insufficient. When adjustments are made for inflation since 1974 and transaction costs, his estimates rise to nearly $1 0.5 billion for just eight core commodities. 90 Although Common Fund financing will reduce the total capital requirements as a result of offsetting price fluctuations, such reductions will be quite small. 91 It remains to be seen which commodities will be included in the IPC; thus, the true costs and resources of the Fund cannot be accurately estimated as yet. There does appear to be a need to scale down the Fund's scope and this is occurring in negotiations on individual ICAs. While Behrman's studies are tentative and based on many assumptions they do cast a cloud over the optimistic projections made by UNCTAD.92 86 87 Id. See J. BEHRMAN, note 40 supra. 88 U.S. DEP'T OF STATE, PuB. No. 3206, COMMERCIAL POLICY SERIES 114, HAVANA CHARTER FOR AN INTERNATIONAL TRADE ORGANIZATION (1948) [hereinafter cited as HAVANA CHARTER]. 89 See J. BEHRMAN, supra note 40, at 37. 90 Id. 91 /d. at 41. 92 Other studies based on one or two commodities have also cast doubt on UNCTAD's 909 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 909 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS In light of the principle enunciated by the Group of 77, and accepted by the other groups, that the Fund shall function at a net profit,93 the adverse effects outlined above might be minimized by the establishment of legal rules governing operations of the Fund. Lending criteria could be established to limit the duration and size of a commodity stock holding. If there were long adverse cycles, an individual commodity organization would have to look elsewhere to subsidize its loss-making operation. Subsidies from the Common Fund would not be consistent with the Fund's profit requirements; ICAs would therefore be required to look to other sources, including their own members whenever the Fund's borrowing limits were reached. SOURCES OF FINANCE The Fund's capital structure depends in part on the proportion of funds to be subscribed by its members and the proportion to be borrowed. The choice of capital-to-borrowing ratio will significantly affect the Fund's creditworthiness. The greater the ratio of subscribed (free of interest) capital to borrowed (interest paying) capital the lower the costs of capital acquisition. This ratio will directly affect lending rates charged to ICAs94 since the Fund's charges must reflect its costs to ensure its financial viability. The UNCTAD Secretariat has suggested a debt-equity ratio of2: 1. The $6 billion capital requirement would thus be met by $1 billion of paid-in capital subscriptions by member states, an additional $1 billion of capital on call, and $2 billion borrowed against each of these $1 billion subscriptions. 95 Other sources of finance may be considered as the Fund develops, such as voluntary contributions, net profits from previous operations, and charges for assuming obligations of members under sole purchase commitments. New profits should be tapped only after a reasonable reserve has been built up. estimates. See, e.g., Smith & Schink, The International Tin Agreement: A Reassessment, 86 ECON. J. 715 (1976); Kreinin & Finger, supra note 57, at 505-06. 93 UNCT AD, Report of the Third Preparatory Meeting for the Negotiation of a Common Fund, U.N. Doc. TD/B/IPClCF/8 Annex I, at 2 (March 3, 1977)(held at Geneva, Feb. 21-Mar. 1, 1977) [hereinafter cited as Report of the Third Preparatory Meeting] . •• H. O'NEILL, supra note 9, at 29 . • 5 Issues Relating to a Common Fund, supra note 62, at 6-7. See also E. ROTBERG, THE WORLD BANK: A FINANCIAL APPRAISAL 10 (1976). 9lO [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 910 1978 A COMMON FUND Capital Subscriptions How are individual national shares of the $2 billion worth of capital subscriptions to be determined? UNCTAD documentation suggests a number of possible schemes, most of which classify participating states on the basis of economic criteria. O'Neill describes three possible alternative structures: (1) Tripartite Structure. A tripartite structure made up of (a) OPEC countries which would subscribe 25 percent; (b) exporting countries which would subscribe 37Y2 percent; and (c) importing countries which would subscribe 37Y2 percent. (2) Equal Shares. A structure in which exporters and importers would have equal capital shares .. (3) Exporter Majority. A structure made up of exporters and importers with exporters having a majority (60 percent) share. 96 Some problems as to OPEC contributions are apparent. O'Neill assumes that OPEC countries are capable of paying a 25 percent share. They have a combined current account surplus for 1974-76 of approximately $140 billion. This is in contrast to the 7 prior years in which the combined surplus totaled only about $15 billion. Despite this surplus they have resisted financing a 25 percent share, pointing out that they are largely net importers of commodities, accounting for considerably less than 25 percent of commodity trade. Not all OPEC members are rich in capita1. 97 Venezuela and Iran are both spending more than they earn in their rush to industrialize and diversify their economies. 98 Indonesia and Nigeria have severe economic problems despite high oil incomes. 99 It is thus particularly significant that only one member state of OPEC has pledged a definite contribution to the Common Fund. OPEC members' reaction to increased IMF subscription calls have been largely negative and this fact does not augur well on the chances for acceptance of such a large subscription to the Comm·on Fund. Determination of subscriptions on the basis of trade raises a num96 97 H. O'NEILL, supra note 9, at 30. See Silk, The IMF and Debts of Poor Nations, N.Y. Times. Mar. 28. 1977. at 43. col. 4. Iran. with capitaIsurpluses 0[$12.6 billion in 1974. was down to $2.6 billion in 1976; Nigeria dropped from $5.0 to $1.3 billion. 98 99 See id. Id. 911 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 911 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS ber of essential questions. On what basis is the determination to be made as to whether a state is an "exporter" or "importer"? Is it to be on a per commodity or on net total basis? Will the determination be solely based on the eighteen commodities specified in the resolution calling for an IPCloO or on the other commodities to be included in the IPC? What weight will be given to trade in commodities-will it be straight dollar value, or some relative term such as value to the economy? What adjusment will be made for countries with inflated trade figures due to their use as transshipment ports? Even if precise criteria were agreed upon, the calculations are exceedingly complex and subject to varying interpretations. How will benefits derived from the IPC be measured? If trade shares are used, will tonnage, dollar value, or potential stockpiling costs per ton be the unit of measure? Any allocation based on trade shares will need to be modified because it is widely accepted that "ability-to-pay" must be considered. lol Relevant factors which are easily measured are GNP and size of international monetary reserves. Obviously a more sophisticated system of weighing together the various factors would be needed, but this obstacle has been overcome in other international financial institutions such as the African and Asian Development Banks. lo2 The total paid-in capital of $2 billion from member states might be apportioned as follows: $600 million on the basis of trade share; $600 million on the basis of GNP; and $800 million on the basis of GNP per capita. 103 Further adjustment to these calculations must be made for payments in non-convertible currencies by some of the least developed countries, and for a minimum contribution of an equal amount by all states. The Group of 77 suggests that a minimum subscription be paid by all states as a symbol of their support. An additional quota would be established for each state, based on criteria yet to be designated, but exemptions in whole or in part would be granted to some of the least developed countries. 104 For example, since many G.A. Res. 3201, note 5 supra. 101 UNCT AD, Common Fund: Capital Subscriptions, U.N. Doc. TD/B/IPCJCF/L.4, at 2 (Jan. 3, 1977) (Provisional Agenda Item 2 of the Second Preparatory Meeting for the Negotiation of a Common Fund, held at Geneva, Jan. 24, 1977) [hereinafter cited as Common Fund: Capital Subscriptions]. 102Id. at 7, n.IO. For a summary of previous efforts in this area, see The Asian Development Bank and Trade Stabilization, U.N. Doc. ElCN.1I1707, at 71-82 (Oct. 15, 1970). 103 Common Fund: Capital Subscriptions, supra note 101, at 8. 104 Report of the First Preparatory Meeting, supra note7l, at 12. 100 912 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 912 1978 A COMMON FUND developing nations have minimal earnings in convertible currencies, their subscriptions could be payable in their national, nonconvertible currencies. In view of the existing debt problems of some of these states, such an exemption seems worthy of support. I05 Care must be taken, however, to keep to a minimum the number of subscriptions made in nonconvertible currencies as the Fund will be unable to borrow against this portion of its capital. The general rule in a Fund agreement should therefore require subscription payments in convertible currency with partial exemptions being granted on a case by case basis. Finally, measures to deal with allocation of current subscriptions to existing ICAs should be considered. There are three options: mandatory transfer, voluntary transfer or absolute retention of ICA funds. The ICA secretariats generally prefer voluntary transfer of subscriptions to the Common Fund rather than mandatory transfer, as do the countries with especially strong interests in a particular commodity. It is doubtful, for example, that member states of the International Tin Agreement would demonstrate enthusiasm for the merger of its accumulated capital and reserves into a Common Fund to benefit other commodities and newer member states. UNCT AD has suggested that voluntary transfers to the Fund could be earmarked for the specific commodities for which they were originally contributed. There has never been any suggestion that existing ICAs would be compelled to rely upon the Common Fund and relinquish their self-financing mechanisms. Individual commodity organizations would be free to remain outside the IPC, or to associate with the Fund and retain an element of self-financing. Borrowing--Factors and Costs Sources for borrowing by the Common Fund include governments, their agencies, international organizations and private capital markets. The Fund's ability to borrow depends on two major factors: its perceived creditworthiness and its ability to offer guarantees. Borrowing from private markets, the largest source of funds, would be backed in part by either callable capital or government guarantees. The major private lending institutions would evaluate the credit ratings of governments which offer guarantees for loans to the Common Fund . • 0. See Wall St. J.. Mar. 10. 1977. at 1. col. 6. 913 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 913 1978 LAW &. Pouey IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS At least one half of the Fund's borrowing ability will be affected by factors beyond its control, such as the credit ratings of member governments; other factors such as fiscal management and stocking operations are within the Fund's control and affect its. creditworthiness directly. Legal ownershi p 106 of stockpiles must be placed in the' hands of commodity organizations, with the Fund having a lien on stocks for which it has lent funds. These liens could be used as guarantees or collateral for loans made to the Common Fund itself, in a manner similar to that under article X(6) of the Tin Agreement where the Council may borrow money upon the security of tin warrants held in the buffer stock. 107 The use of stock as collateral in such a case has a built-in conflict. Commodity organizations will often be acquiring stocks precisely because the market price is declining. Thus the value of stocks held and their value as collateral will also be declining. lOS The point is particularly significant because the compromise proposal offered by Group B at the November 1977 negotiating conference placed a heavy emphasis. on using stock warrants as collatera1. 109 Where such collateral is used instead of government capital subscriptions, it can be expected that lenders will discount the value of warrants during a declining market as the value of commodity stocks which they represent also declines. The cost of borrowing is of critical importance to the financial viability of the Common Fund. The Group B states suggest that if member governments were to pay in $2 billion the interest rates on their loans would range from 8 percent to 15 percent. IIO The lending rates on the Eurodollar!! I market as of September 1978 were 8 percent to 9 percent. 112 ,The World Bank has expressed a willingness to lend but its rates as of January 1978 were 7.45 percent. 113 Group B argues See generally Fawcett, The Function of Law In International Commodity Agreements, 44 157, 174 (1970). 107 See id. at 173. 108 See Report of the First Pr<:paratory Meeting, supra note 71, at 14. 109 See UNCT AD, Elements for the Basis of a Common Fund, Proposal Submitted by Countries Members of Group B, U.N. Doc. TD/IPc/CF/CONF/L.5, at 3 (Nov. 7, 1977) (Agenda Item 9 of the United Nations Negotiating ~onference on a Common Fund Under the Integrated Programme for Commodities, 2d sess., held at Geneva, Nov. 7, 1977) [hereinafter cited as Elements for the Basis of a Common Fund]. 110 See Report of the First Preparatory Meeting, supra note 71, at 11. I I I Eurodollar is the term referring to the pool of U.S. dollars that is held outside the U.S. and forms one of the world's most important sources of financing. 112 Money Rates, Wall St. j., Sept. 15, 1978, at 37, col. 2. 113 The 7.45 percent interest rate applied to loans for the third quarter of fiscal year 1978 106 BItIT. V.B. INT'L L. 914 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 914 1978 A COMMON FUND that if the cost of borrowing were 8.5 percent, then on the basis of UNCTAD's own figures,114 none of the commodity organizations would earn a rate of return sufficient to repay loans financed at that interest rate. lIS The Secretariat of UNCT AD points out that the average cost of borrowing is a relevant factor in assuring adequate profitabilityY6 By way of illustration, if one third of the Fund's resources were obtained from subscribed capital, another third on concessional terms 117 and the remaining third at Eurodollar rates then the Fund could re-Iend to commodity oJ;ganizations at as Iowa rate as 4.5 percent and still produce an adequate net incomeYs Since the earliest proposal for an IPC, most parties assumed that OPEC states would be a major source of borrowed funds. It was probably reasonable to assume that OPEC reserves, now placed in short-term deposits,119 would be attracted to a profitable and tax exempt international fund. After all, OPEC states had lent $2.2 billion to the World Bank,120 and their surpluses have recently been estimated at $42-46 billion. 121 Wasserman, a close observer of OPEC and commodity trade, argues that OPEC states are very conservative investors and that commodity stocks would be viewed as a poor risk. 122 But despite the poor investment opportunity, the OPEC states Uanuary through March). Under a formula for determining lending rates adopted by the World Bank in May 1976, the Bank's lending rate is reviewed quarterly and is maintained at 0.5 percent above a specially calculated average cost of Bank borrowings during the preceding 12 months. FINANCE & DEV., March 1978, at 4. 114 UNCTAD, Common Fund Financial Requirements, supra note 69, at Table IV. 11. See Report of the Third Preparatory Meeting, supra note 93, at 10. 116 See id. 117 The source of this concessional funding is not defined but presumably would include governments and the IDA. 118 Report of the Third Preparatory Meeting, supra note 93, at 10-11. 119 These deposits are also moved from currency to currency causing disruption to money markets. See Janssen, Economic Shock Wave From Oil Price Rises In '73 Still Hurts West, Wall St. j., Mar. 10, 1977, at 1, col. 6. 120 See E. ROTBERG, supra note 95, at 5. Note that only seven members of OPEC participated and that the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency alone purchased one-half. Id. at 5-6. These figures are as of December 31,1975. The UNCTAD figure for OPEC lending to the World Bank for the period January 1973 through June 1975 is $2.438 billion. See also UNCTAD, Elements of a Programme of Economic Cooperation Among Developing Countries, U. N. Doc. TD/192/Supp. 1, at 55 n.58 (Mar. 26, 1976) (Provisional Agenda Item 14 of the UNCT AD 4th sess., held at Nairobi, May 5, 1976). 121 Compare Silk, note 97 supra with Janssen, supra note 119, at 28, col. 3. 122 See Wasserman, Commodities: An Integrated Approach, 9 j. WORLD TRADE L. 584, 586 (1975). Wasserman reports the resentment of several developing country delegations over the failure of OPEC countries to commit themselves to investment in commodities as expressed in the Conference of Developing Countries on Raw Materials, Dakar (1975). A resolution calling upon OPEC to make such a commitment was passed. More recently, resentment of OPEC's 1978] 915 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 915 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS might agree to substantial subscriptions to the Fund just as they have given extensively for development projects that promise little return. They might also weigh the political prestige gained by being perceived as the major contributors to this new institution that developing nations feel is so important. Accurate predictions regarding economic viability of the Common Fund can only be made once agreement is clear on which commodities will be included, which countries will subscribe, and what terms will govern Fund operations. Some guidance, however, may be found in the practices of other international financial organizations; the World Bank, for example, has been able to borrow $14.6 billion on international money markets for relending at favorable rates. 123 Comparison with W orid Bank Borrowing and Operations The World Bank enjoys the highest credit rating possible on world financial markets. 124 1t has borrowed on all the world's leading money markets in a variety of currencies through direct placement with governments or central banks as well as through private investors.125 This success is linked to a deliberate program aimed at making the Bank's obligations an acceptable and attractive investment to lenders throughout the world. The World Bank's efforts first focused on establishing a sound credit rating by borrowing from governments, central banks and national lending agencies. It should be made clear that the World Bank paid normal, non-concessionary interest rates. Only later did , the Bank offer bonds on private markets providing interest yields typical of other high grade tax-free bonds. At the present time 47 percent of World Bank debts are held by governments or central failure was expressed at the U.N. General Assembly. Barbados' Minister of External Affairs complained of the parsimonious attitude of the oil producing states who concentrated their aid in a handful of mainly Islamic states. N.Y. Times, Oct. 17, 1977, at 3, col. J. However, all indications are that OPEC member states are reluctant to make concessional contributions to funds for Third World development. Recently, the Saudis (and other Arab members of OPEC) demurred on major help to the new IMF supplementary facility. N.Y. Times, May 5, 1977, § D, at 9, col. I. These countries have shown their conservative investment pattern by placing a large share of surplus funds in short and medium-term portfolio investment. Norman, Saudis Plan Big Near-Term Investments in U.S. Securities Over Next 2 or 3 Years, Wall St. j., May 5, 1977, at 16, col. 2. This trend to short-term, highly liquid U.S. treasury notes and bonds has sharply increased of late. N.Y. Times, Sept. 22, 1977, § D, at 2, col. 5. 123 See WORLD BANK, ANNUAL REPORT 1977, at 131 (1977). 124 See generally E. ROTBERG, supra note 95, at 8. 125 Id. at 3-10. 916 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 916 1978 A COMMON FUND banks. 126 The balance of its financing comes from private investors. The Bank's sound credit rating is now based upon its extraordinary 30-year loss-free loan record. Few if any banks can boast of a similar 30 year period without a default. The Bank's reputation is further enhanced by its liquidity policy,127 its wide mix of obligations (variety of interest rates and maturities) and a policy of limiting its loans so as to never exceed its capital and reserves. The Bank's overall conservative fiscal policy is supported by member states because it is in their own best interest. It ensures that the unpaid capital subscription (which is 90 percent of the total) need never be called. The Bank's approach is to operate as if the guarantee of callable capital did not exist. There is no reason why a Common Fund could not pursue similar policies and even embody them in the guiding principles of the treaty or convention that establishes the Fund. Perhaps the most important reason for the Bank's success as a borrower is that its debt-equity ratio is a low 2.65: 1, considering only paid-in capital, reserves and net income as equity.128 If the additional $28 billion of uncalled capital is considered, the ratio falls to 1 :2.4.12 9 Under the proposed phase-in of the Common Fund $2 billion would be borrowed against the first $1 billion of paid-in capital so that, initially at least, its debt-equity ratio of 2: 1 would exceed the Bank's 2.65: 1. If a further $2 billion is borrowed against the $1 billion uncalled capital, the ratio remains at 2: 1 but compares unfavorably to the 1:2.4 debt-equity ratio of the World Bank when uncalled capital is considered. Yet it should be recalled that either ratio is considerably lower than that of comparable commercial institutions. It remains to be seen whether the Common Fund's creditworthiness will be perceived as equivalent to the World Bank's, thus enabling the Fund to borrow on the most favorable terms available. It [d. at 9. The bank borrows substantially more funds than needed for current disbursements, the advantage being protection against higher levels of interest rates or maturities which may prevail when the cash requirements fall due. The treasurer of the bank, Mr. Rotberg, states, I would suggest that there are few, if any, banks which have liquid resources equal to twice their public debt falling due in the next five years. This is the kind of flexibility which provides us with ORtions, should capital markets deteriorate in quality or quantity. We seek to avoio the position that is faced often by many commercial institutions where tight money policy, deteriorating capital markets, and concentration on too few sources of funds, severely reduce profitability and flexibility. [d. 128 [d. at 13. 129 [d. 126 127 917 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 917 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS is encouraging to observe the success that newer development lending institutions have had. The Inter-American Development Bank, African Development Bank and Asian Development Bank have followed the World Bank pattern of building up a good credit rating on the foundation of a well-balanced legal charter and sound banking practice. There is every reason to believe that the Fund would be established and operated in a similar fashion. STRUCTURAL COMPONENTS OF A COMMON FUND Participation As indicated above, the number of states participating in the Fund will directly affect the size of individual subscriptions and indirectly affect the financial viability of the Fund's operations. The membership of most major industrial powers is essential, not only for their large capital subscriptions but, more importantly, for their political and financial backing. Private investors will more likely buy Common Fund bond issues if the governments that guarantee them have strong financial reputations. Such guarantees may be express, in the case of a particular issue, or implied, as in the case of uncalled capital subscriptions. The Fund's financial viability is also linked to the success of individual commodity organizations. The Fund must have customers and most of the commodities proposed for inclusion in the IPC are not at present covered by any international agreement. As a final consideration it seems unlikely that any state's refusal to participate in the capital subscription can effectively undermine the formation of the Fund. Trade in each commodity is so diversified that no one state exercises significant control over trade in the integrated group of commodities. Structure 1. Why Another Multilateral Institution? At issue in negotiations over the Common Fund is whether it should be an independent multilateral institution or be formed as an agency of a larger existing institution. The Secretariat of UNCT AD appears to have assumed that the Common Fund would be established as an independent organization. This is the preference of the 918 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 918 1978 A COMMON FUND Group of 77,130 but they may be willing to establish the Common Fund as an agency of UNCT AD. While political considerations may be determinative of the ultimate decision, non-political considerations-practical, economic, and structural criteria-point to creating the Common Fund as a semi-autonomous agency under the uml;>rella of either the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRDWorld Bank). These agencies, either separately or jointly, have existing staffs, experience, information gathering facilities, and powers of coordination in development assistance matters which the new Common Fund would need to acquire. Supplemented by additional staff and financing there is every reason to expect that the Common Fund could quickly step into its role as an international economic institution by using the experienced personnel and procedures existing within the IMF-IBRD. The most important consideration, though, is the additional financial strength and respectability which the Common Fund would have if it were part of the IMF-IBRD umbrella. The additional problem of proliferation of international economic organizations should be considered. Many have suggested that the overlap and confusion among present multilateral institutions, combined with the host of new national agencies for development aid, indicates the need for a moratorium on new international institutions. This feeling has been strongly expressed by a number of governments and the Congress of the United States. Henry Costanzo has recommended: I do think it is important to distinguish between, on the one hand, the elaboration of new international tasks and func- . tions in response to emerging situations and, on the other hand, the creation of new, independent international bodies to carry them out. Given the broad array of existing institutions, in most cases it would seem more appropriate to pour new wine into the serviceable bottles we have, rather than invest in new bottle-making machinery whose output remains to be tested. Where more is required than simply assigning a new responsibility to an ongoing operation, . adaptation, even ifby major surgery, seems preferable to the creation of entirely new poles or centers of organizational 130 See Report of the First Preparatory Meeting. supra note 71. at II. 919 1978J HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 919 1978 LAW & POUCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS activity unrelated to wh~t already exists .... Our emphasis now should be on integration, not expansion}3l Existing multilateral institutions have some proven advantages. They are able to insist upon stringent lending conditions and upon sound planning of projects. l32 Nations are already experienced in dealings with these institutions. As the ultimate aim of the IPC is economic development, it is important to consider the role these institutions already play in coordinating international development assistance. Both the IMF and World Bank have proven their financial strength and their ability to expand their financial resources through borrowing on private money markets. They have, for example, attracted OPEC funds and have thereby mobilized resources for development far greater than the sum of direct contributions to them by donor governments. l33 It has been argued that making the Common Fund a part of the IMF-IBRD would be unacceptable to the Group of 77, primarily because of their resentment of the terms and conditions of lending offered by these institutions. Although the IMF and IBRD operate according to stringent banking terms, these two institutions have shown flexibility in their response to the demands of deVeloping countries. Years ago the IBRD established the International Development Agency (IDA) and the International Finance Corporation (lFC) to better meet the needs for more concessional financing with less stringent conditions. 134 It is envisioned that the IMF may finance the compensatory financing mechanism of the IPC.l3S The IMF is carrying out a study, at UNCTAD request, on possible expansion and further liberalization of the existing compensation scheme. l36 131 Constanzo, Opming Remarks, in THE FUTURE OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ORGANIZATIONS 4, 7 (D. Wallace & H. Escobar eds. 1977). 132 See Foreign Assistance and Related Agmcies Appropriations for 1978: Hearings Before the Subcomm. on Foreign OPerations and Related Agencies of the House Comm. on Appropriations, 95th Cong., 1st Sess. 584 (1977) (statement of Cyrus R. Vance). 133 [d. 134 See WORLD BANK, QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS 55 (1976). 135 Compensatory financing is the element of the IPC which aims to stabilize export income from commodity sales. Where a nation's commodity export income falls below a certain minimum level, e.g., 7 percent, then it is proposed that the IMF lend the nations a compensatory amount repayable or possibly convertible into a grant. For further information on systems existing in the IMF and European Economic Community, see Goreux, The Use of Compensatory Financing, FINANCE & DEV., September 1977, at 20, 21. 136 See Issues Relating to a Common Fund, supra note 62, at 4. 920 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 920 1978 A COMMON FUND 2. Suggested Management Structure Whether formed independently or as part of a larger multilateral organization, the Fund will essentially be an international financial institution. It would seem expedient to draw upon the experience of management structure in similar existing institutions. In such institutions the division of authority is based on three levels: 137 a Board of Governors, granted full powers under the articles of agreement and comprising representatives from all member states; an Executive Board, a standing body of limited membership which is delegated powers by the Board of Governors to approve each financial transaction and to establish operational policies; and an Executive Head, elected by the remaining smaller states. No small group of states in the executive officer in charge of the professional staff. In the IMF and World Bank the five states with the largest capital subscriptions each have a right to appoint an Executive Director; the other Directors are elected by the remaining smaller states. No small group of states in the Common Fund is likely to have any large percentage of financial responsibility138 and the trend in international organizations is to favor the principle of equality of states. Thus, the developing countries probably will favor election, rather than appointment, of Executive Directors. As part of a compromise formula, developed states may agree to direct capital subscriptions to the Fund in return for a Group of 77 agreement that the Fund be established as a semi-autonomous agency of the World Bank or IMF. In that event the Common Fund could have a separate governing body but with membership contingent on World Bank or IMF membership. Voting rights could be related to importing and exporting of an agreed list of commodities. Such a voting formula would give control to the largest trading states and would thus be indirectly linked to financial contributions. In no event would anyone state be paying more than 20 percent ofthe capital, as does the United States in the World Bank. Thus, no one state or small group of states would have any right to demand controlling influence. In terms of management, the Fund could maintain a small professional staff of its own, similar to the IFC within the World Bank group. It would work closely with and draw upon the Bank's research Amounts, Terms and Prospective Sources of Finance, supra note 82, at 19. This could change if OPEC states agreed to provide one-third of the capital subscriptions. These nations might demand a higher degree of control. Legal safeguards could be included redressing any imbalance caused by a financially weighted voting system giving OPEC countries significant authority .. 131 138 921 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 921 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS projects and economic analysis capabilities. Since the number of borrowers from the Fund will be small, there seems to be no reason for a large administrative staff. Except for the tasks of financial decisions, research, and verification of the quantity and quality of the stocks financed by the Fund's resources, the Fund may be able to rely on the technical advice and support of the World Bank, IMF and commodity organizations. 139 Decision-Making Decision-making structure and voting control issues are fundamental to the successful conclusion of an agreement on the Fund and its effective operation. Consumer and producing states alike are concerned about protecting their interests against abuses of decision-making power and maximizing their group's control. Methods should be adopted to protect against unacceptable policies. Wellframed rules on decision-making can enhance prospects for membership by a large number of nations. The following discussion on decision-making takes into consideration the apportionment of voting strength, the principles upon which voting strength is determined, potential abuses of the procedure and the types of voting procedures available. 140 1. Distribution of Voting Power The distribution of voting power in existing international financial institutions is based generally on the dual principles of equality and proportionality in the allocation of votes. Each country initially receives an equal number of votes, then additional votes are assigned in proportion to the share of capital stock held by each state. Three major issues arise concerning the distribution of voting power. The first issue raises the question of equality in voting strength. Are votes to be assigned to each country regardless of the group membership, or are certain groups to be favored through a group approach to weighted voting? The second issue relates to the methods to be used in assigning voting power. Once the ba&ic ap139 See Amounts, Terms and Prospective Sources of Finance, supra note 82, at 24. For a full discussion of decision-making alternatives, see UNCTAD, Common Fund: Decision Making and Management, U.N. Doc. TD/S/IPC!CF/L.6 Gan. II, 1977) (Provisional Agenda Item 2 of the Second Preparatory Meeting for the Negotiation of a Common Fund, held at Geneva, Jan. 24, 1977) [hereinafter cited as Common Fund Decision Making and Management]. See generally C. RICHES, MAJORITY RULE IN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS 140 (1940). 922 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 922 1978 A COMMON FUND proach is agreed on, what criteria will be used to determine an individual nation's voting rights? For example, what weight is to be given to trade dependence or population? In determining traderelated criteria a decision must be made as to whether the ten core commodities, the full eighteen, or some larger list will be used. Finally, the third issue is whether effective safeguards can be established to prevent the abuse of authority or voting control. (a) Principle of Equality The principle of equality, if applied alone, would suggest one vote for each member state. A major criticism of such an apportionment is that "[e]quality of voting power for all Members is a poor basis for decision-making unless ... supported by ... a parity of interest."141 International organizations seldom have such parity, since member states generally have different levels of interest in the various aspects of the program. Thus, strict adherence to a principle of equality may handicap some states in the decision-making process. The voting leverage of anyone state may bear an impact far out of proportion to the interests it has at stake. To strike a more equitable balance, many international organizations use either a system of weighted voting or a modification on majority voting procedures. 142 (b) Weighted Voting System A weighted voting system can check the potential abuses arising under a system relying solely on the principle of equality. The central issue would be determining the criteria by which the extra weight should be given. 143 There are two broad approaches to this question. The first approach assigns votes to individual countries using specific criteria such as degree of dependence on commodity trade, gross national product or population. The second approach assigns votes by groups of countries. The first approach is widely used and rests on the two principles of equality and proportionality. Each country would receive a minimum number of votes to which additional votes would be added in proportion to its relation to the set criterion. 144 Proportion would vary as to 141 II H. 14' See id. at 357. Id. at 331. See, e.g., Common Fund Decision Making and Management, supra note 140, at 1-2 (the 143 144 SCHERMERS, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONAL LAw 330 (1972). UNCT AD Secretariat proposal based proportionality on capital stock rather than the criteria suggested here). 923 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 923 1978 LAW & POLICY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS how a particular international organization allocates votes based on the equality principles and votes based on proportionality. For example, the World Bank apportions 11 percent of the votes on the principle of equality and 89 percent on the principle of proportionality. The African Development Bank, on the other hand, uses a ratio of 49 percent to 51 percent. 145 One commentator has suggested that "given the basic objective of the IPC ... it would seem appropriate that the proportion of 'equality votes' in the total should be as high as possible."146 However, it is also noted that since "the common fund is conceived as a financial institution . . . [the] members paying in subscription capital might expect that their relative contributions be recognized ... in the assignment of votes."147 The second broad approach to the weighting of votes would assign votes to groups of countries. 148 A block of votes is usually allocated to a group for them to distribute within the group as they see fit. Several ICAs, including the International Coffee Counci1,l49 the International Tin Council, 150 and the International Sugar Council,151 allocate votes to both importing and exporting members who then apportion the votes among themselves. If a group approach is adopted a number of technical difficulties arise. Most states are both exporters and importers of a variety of commodities and cannot be classified purely as either an "exporter" or "importer." A state's status would vary with the changes in trade relations. The Secretariat of UNCT AD suggests capital subscription criteria be used instead of such variable trade-related criteria. 152 Group-weighted voting based on export/import standing may be a more appropriate voting system at the level of individual commodity agreements, where exporting and importing countries can be more clearly distinguished. The Common Fund, on the other hand, should [d. at 2. [d. 147 [d. 148 For a discussion of this approach, see II H. SCHERMERS, supra note 141, at 333-34. 14. See International Coffee Agreement, 1968, openedfor signature Mar. 18, 1968, an. 12, 19 V.S.T. 6333, T.I.A.S. No. 6584, 647 V.N.T.S. 3. 150 See International Tin Agreement, note 13 supra, art. II(a). 151 See International Sugar Agreement, note 13 supra, art. 9. See also II H. SCHERMERS, supra note 141, at 333-34. 152 See generally Common Fund Decision Making and Management, supra note 140, at 14-18. It should be recalled that capital subscription also relates back to a determination of net terms of trade in each of the ten core commodities, and hence to each state's total export and impon trade. 145 146 924 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 924 1978 A COMMON FUND reflect "a more global view of the whole range of world commodity interests."153 Weighted voting systems have become commonplace in most international economic agreements. The reason for this wide-spread acceptance is generally that most nations acknowledge the justice of a system that allocates voting influence on the basis of relative investment. I54 But while the system rewards concrete commitments of resources with enhanced voting power, it protects those members with the smallest commitment by setting out a tight framework of rights and obligations. Furthermore, the agreements are either short-term or permit easy withdrawal, thus mmlmlzmg potential harm to the interests of small countries. I55 2. Voting Procedures There are mainly three types of voting procedures: unanimity, majority vote and consensus. I56 The requirement for unanimity works best only in small, wellintegrated organizations. I57 It serves to protect the status quo and discourage change. Organizations requiring quick decisions on controversial issues would be hindered by this procedure. The majority vote procedure is used by most international organizations. In practice it can take on any number of different styles, but four common examples of majority vote procedure are the simple majority, qualified majority, relative majority and absolute majority.IS8 Such majorities "may be calculated from the total membership, from ... [m]embers present, or from ... [m]embers expressly taking part in the voting."159 The choice from among these majority vote options depends on the situation at hand, and is usually a function of the type of issue before the body.I60 Any of these procedures may be applied in carrying out a system based on such principles as equality Id. at 5. Metzger. Settlement of International Disputes by NonJudicial Methods, 48 AM. J. INT'L L. 408, 416-17 (1954). 155 Id. 156 See II H. SCHERMERS, supra note 141, at 327-28,358,361-62 (1972). 157 Cf id. at 328 (Schermers says unanimity is more common in smaller, but more powerful organizations). 158 Id. at 337-38. 159 Id. at 339. 160 For examples ofthe kinds of issues that might require qualified majorities or unanimity, see Common Fund Decision Making and Management, supra note 140, at 6 nn.12 & 13. 153 154 925 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 925 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS of voting power, proportionality of voting power or upon a category such as "trade dependence." Of the four procedures mentioned above, the qualified majority holds the most promise for the Common Fund. The qualified majority procedure may require a certain percentage of votes which is two-thirds greater than a simple majority (e.g., a two-thirds majority) or it may require the majority to include some specified category of members. Under a qualified voting system a majority of votes would not necessarily represent a majority of members. . The Common Fund could use a qualified majority system which wquld apportion a specific number of votes between exporting and importing members. Approval could be conditioned on obtaining a certain percentage from each block of votes, an approach used by several lCAs. The third voting category, decision-making by consensus is becoming more popular among international organizations as they have begun to realize that "international cooperation is not served by out-voting minorities."161 From a political rather than a legal viewpoint, cooperation may be developed better through compromises to which all participants can adhere. A consensus system may be provided for by a provision allowing the chairman to determine the "sense" of the meeting without a formal vote. The World Bank and the lMF have both used this approach. 162 In general, the choice of voting procedure for the Common Fund will depend on the particular parameters of decision-making. Obviously not all decisions made by the Fund will be of equal importance. Simpler methods of voting can thus be adopted on procedural issues or substantive issues of minor importance. In negotiations on the Fund, an acceptable tradeoff for industrialized nations might be to resort to weighted or qualified voting procedures only for decisions involving crucial issues such as setting qualifying standards for financing of ICAs or establishing maximum drawings for anyone lCA. This standard seems to underlie Article 63(b) of the Havana Charter, the nonbinding but accepted agreement on guidelines for lCAs, which speaks of special voting arrangements "in decisions on substantive matters."163 UNCTAD apparently accepts this principle and requires II H. ScHERMERS, supra note 141, at 328. Common Fund Decision Making and Management, supra note 140, at 6. 163 The Havana Charter of the International Trade Organization, never fully ratified, incorporated in Chapter VI a set of guiding principles for the establishment of ICAs. See 161 162 926 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 926 1978 A COMMON FUND a qualified majority vote in the case of an exceptional decision for the Fund itself to directly intervene in market operations. 164 3. Delegated Authority A Fund agreement should provide for the division of decisionmaking authority among the general membership, an executive council and the Secretary-General. The Fund can draw on the experiences of ICAs in which the general membership council exercises all powers except those it delegates. The 1975 International Cocoa Agreement, for example, prohibits Council delegation of a number of important powers, such as the redistribution of votes, approval of the administrative budget and assessment of contributions, revision of the minimum and maximum prices and determination of annual export quotas. 165 It also precludes delegation in areas of accession, exclusion, or suspension of members, as well as termination or amendment of the Agreement itself. Obviously this is an ICA where all the most important powers are retained by the membership at large. Contrast this with the 1973 Sugar Agreement in which the only nondelegable powers are relocation of the headquarters, budget approval, contribution assessment, dispute settlement and membership sanctions. 166 4. Conclusion Both the delegation of powers and the voting process must be given special consideration in the negotiation of the Fund. The negotiations must determine, for example, whether the C;ounci.l or Executive Committee should be empowered to decide what proportion of Fund resources are to be committed iri any financial year as loans for purposes other than stocking. It must also be determined whether special voting procedures, such as a weighted two-thirds majority, should be required. It would.be helpful if the Agreement, in addressing the various powers of the organization, HAVANA CHARTER, supra note 88, ch. VI. See also C. WILCOX, A CHARTER FOR WORLD TRADE, 53-62 (1949). 184 See UNCT AD, A Common Fund for the Financing of Commodity Stocks: Suitability for Stocking of Individual Commodities, Country Contributions and Burden Sharing, and Some Operating Principles, U.N. Doc. TD/B/C.I1196, at 24 (1975) (Agenda Item 5 of Report of Comm. on Commodities, Trade & Dev. Bd., for the 8th sess., pt. 3, held at Geneva, Dec. 8, 1975) [hereinafter cited as A Common Fund]. ,.5 International Cocoa Agreement, supra note 13, art. 17(3). , •• International Sugar Agreement, 1973,openedforsignatureOct. 13,19 73,art.16(1), U.N. Doc. TD/SUGAR.8/6 (1974). 927 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 927 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS set forth several voting procedures, stipulating which was to be used in conjunction with the different decision-making powers it grants. The voting procedure that is adopted will have to put at rest the fears of industrialized states that control will lie in "the tyranny of the majority" and that the funds will be dissipated quickly. Members paying in capital will resist any approach that fails to give them voting power in proportion to their relative contributions. 167 Whatever decision-making structure and voting procedures are finally adopted, they undoubtedly will be 'subject to criticism. But such criticism would be applied equally to any proposal calling for a restructuring of world trade in commodities. 16s OPERATIONAL COMPONENTS OF A COMMON FUND Fund Management The staff and policy-making bodies of individual commodity organizations, and not the Common Fund, will determine stock sizes, intervention prices and storage requirements. The primary role of the Fund is to finance stocking arrangements of these organizations. It is essential, though, that the Fund follow the sound banking practice of domestic banks and establish guidelines and general standards for its lending operations. 1. Lending Policies Different lending rates and criteria may need to be established for financing buffer stocks and non-stocking operations. Two different accounts, each with its own resources and operated se'parately, should be established for these two different financing activities. This approach will protect the credit standing of the Fund's main operations as well as facilitate long-term financing which is needed only in regard to non-stocking operations. In either case the Fund must charge an adequate lending rate, the aim being to set a rate as low as is compatible with its ability to borrow at reasonable costs. 169 167 See generaUy Common Fund Decision Making and Management, supra note 140, at 2; Repon of the First Preparatory Meeting, supra note 71, at 15. 168 See H. O'NEILL, supra note 9, at 34. 169 Common Fund: Mode of Operations, supra note 75, at 7, [Vol. 10:887 928 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 928 1978 A COMMON FUND The average cost of borrowing, the administrative costs, and the liquidity requirements are all relevant to the establishment of the Fund's lending rate. Another concern would be the desire to generate net income from lending to stockpiling operations· which could be transferred to the second window account and used for projects such as product diversification. In the early stages of the Fund's operation the true costs of borrowing will not yet be established. This will make it difficult to set a lending rate. At the outset the Fund could set a conservatively high rate to ensure its own viability, but such high rates might overburden its few customers, the commodity organizations. The terms 'of loans might well require, as do World Bank loans, that repayments be in the same currency as received so as to reduce the risk of devaluation, a risk assumed by the Fund. Additional .limits might be set as to the size of individual commodity drawing rights under revolving credits. This would preserve some degree of automatic lending, which is necessary if commodity organizations are to take swift and effective market intervention, while still maintaining the financial controls required for sound management. 170 Whether or not an overall limit should be placed on lending to any one commodity organization is debatable. 171 A known limitation might encourage speculation against commodities, e.g., unloading of excess stock with the knowledge that the Fund will cover the cost of purchase. It is difficult to foresee governments committing resources to the Fund if no limits are set on the amount of funds anyone organization can borrow. Possible compromises include the establishment of proportional limits, or provision for review of commodity price targets and stock sizes, before granting loans over specified levels. The Asian Development Bank Agreement includes a useful provision which, in the context of the Common Fund, would require the Fund management to pay due regard to a policy that a disproportionate amount of its resources would not be used for the benefit of any particular commodity agreement. Thus the Fund's management would have the flexibility to respond on an ad hoc basis to market speculation. 172 170 Norway has suggested that a high degree of "automatic routine in the granting of loans from the fund would be desirable." Proposals by Governments, supra note 61, at 4 (emphasis added). 171 See H. O'NEILL, supra note 9, at 36. 172 UNCT AD, Economic Co-Operation and Integration Among Developing Countries, 929 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 929 1978 LAW & Pouey IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS Time limits against prolonged use of funds should also be required. This reflects concern over excess storage charges which could undermine the finances of individual commodity organizations by reducing resale profits. Time limits would encourage quick turnaround and discourage precipitate market intervention. 2. Administration - As stated at the beginning of this article, there is widespread agreement that" the Fund should finance international (and possibly coordinated national) stocking operations, although it is still an open and disputed question as to what other measures the Fund might finance. Considerable controversy exists as to the circumstances, if any, under which the Fund itself, and not commodity organizations, should intervene in market operations. In UNCT AD documents these "temporary market interventions" are referred to as requiring "special safeguards" and raising "certain financial and managerial issues, including the amounts necessary for such measures, agreed procedures for decision-making and the availability of specialized personnel knowledgeable in commodity trading."173 As complex as these issues are, the Secretariat of UNCT AD recommends that the Fund be given authority to intervene, for a limited period, in markets of commodities for which commodity arrangements do not yet exist. 174 Reference is made to a provision for "emergency price support" in the absence of a commodity organization and the Secretariat recommends that the stocks be transferred, together with the corresponding liability (the purchase cost and the accrued storage and interest charges) to the commodity organization when (if ever) established. 175 Unfortunately, nations benefiting from international price supports for which no direct charge is made to them have little incentive to establish an organization to takeover these debts. This is true even though the condition would be attached that producing countries agree to initiate the establishment of an ICA. The Fund's only effective legal safeguard would be to require producing states Compilation of the Principal Legal Instruments, U.N. Doc. TD/B/609/Add. I, at 141 (Aug. 24, 1976) (Art. 14, Agreement Establishing the Asian Development Bank), cited in Common Fund: Mode of Operations, supra note 75, at 12. 173 Issues Relating to a Common Fund, supra note 62, at II. 114 See A Common Fund, supra note 164, at 24. 17. [d. 930 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 930 1978 A COMMON FUND to agree to lmtlate negotiations and assume the debts if negotiations failed to reach agreement. Provision must also be made for some degree of market transparency. For the Fund to estimate its cash flow requirements it will require access to figures on forward supply and demand for commodities covered by the IPC. This necessitates information from the OECD, producer states and commodity organizations. Certainly in relation to ICAs, the Fund's charter should mandate an ongoing exchange of information as a prerequisite to lending operations. This would also facilitate establishment by the Fund of knowledgeable limits on revolving credits offered to individual ICAs. Relations with ICAs In addition to the right to intervene in a commodity market not covered by an existing agreement the Fund should have certain rights of intervention and intercourse in its relations with existing ICAs. The choice is essentially between an arms-length approach, with the Fund only acting upon application of the ICA, or an integrated approach, with the Fund taking a major role in supervising the activities of ICAs and possibly even with commodity organizations assisting in the management of the Fund. 176 As indicated earlier the Fund must, at least in its initial stages, carefully regulate lending to ICAs and ensure that intervention policies are reasonable with respect to each commodity within the IPC. There appears to be strong support for a high degree of autonomy for commodity organizations,177 which reflects the need for swift market intervention without delays for consultation with Common Fund officials. The Swiss have argued that exclusive power should be vested in each ICA to decide on the appropriate method of financing. 178 This is consistent with the vision of the Common Fund as the normal, but not exclusive, source of finance, and leaves the ICAs free to use their own resources or those of the IMF or individual governments. Such independent authority would be particularly advantageous, indeed necessary, in cases of long-term market decline, lengthy Amounts, Terms and Prospective Sources of Finance, supra note 82, at 24. See, e.g., Issues Relating to a Common Fund, supra note 62, at 4; Draft Report of the Common Fund Negotiating Conference, supra note 28, at 7, 12. 178 Swiss Comments, supra note 38, at 3. 176 177 1978] 931 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 931 1978 LAW & POLICY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS stockpiling periods, or cases of speculation against known Common Fund financing limits. A stronger argument exists for Common Fund control over diversification, marketing and other non-stocking activities of commodity organizations. The power to review proposed projects and establish priorities would be consistent with the need to coordinate the Integrated Programme. Whatever compromise is reached should give the Fund power to establish general criteria for all its lending activities. PROSPECTS FOR A NEGOTIATED AGREEMENT There are three fundamental areas of disagreement in current Fund negotiations: whether the Fund should be a "source" or a "pool" of finance; whether the Fund should finance any operations other than stocking; and whether the Fund's management should be organized to ensure decisive control by developing countries. Each issue is viewed by Group B and the Group of 77 as of fundamental importance. One of the most significant stumbling blocks to approval of the Fund is the issue of management control. The Group of 77 is quite frank about their desire to have a decisive role in decision-making. This partly explains why developing countries are so adamant that the Common Fund be endowed with significant powers and resources. Since they are largely exporters, developing countries cannot have a decisive role in individual ICAs which are equally controlled by exporters and importers. But if they can control the powerful central institution they can influence the entire course of the IPC. There is nothing Machiavellian about this attitude. The basic objective of the IPC is, after all, to improve the well-being of developing countries. Resolution 93(IV), agreed to by the developed and developing countries, expressly states that "concentrated efforts should be made in favor of the developing countries."179 It is those countries themselves which have the most to lose or gain from the IPC. With negotiations for the Common Fund stalled and ICA negotiations behind schedule, the IPC cannot be implemented by the end of 1978 as called for in Resolution 93(IV).lsO One consequence of 119 180 Resolution 93(IV). note 7 supra. [d. at 7. See note 36 supra forthe status of negotiations at the time this article was written. 932 (Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 932 1978 A COMMON FUND this delay is that the catalyzing role of the Fund may well be lost. Since ICA negotiations are continuing while the Fund is stalled, there is no longer any possibility that the Fund will cause a rush to form new ICAs and result in unneeded stockpile agreements, as developed countries have feared. UNCT AD's hope that the Common Fund would serve as a catalyst for new ICA's has thus been defeated. For the same reason the "pool" versus "source" debate is becoming increasingly academic as new agreements, such as the recent Sugar Agreement, are created as self-financing or supplemented by contributions from members. If this trend continues a large source of funds will already have been created and the only feasible option for the Fund will be to pool these ICA finances, and possibly combine them with limited contributions by governments. As suggested above, a likely ground for compromise is to allow the m~jority of members to exercise day-to-day control over Fund activities while requiring weighted or qualified majority voting where crucial issues are involved. If such a compromise were adopted, industrialized nations would have an opportunity to exercise a great deal of indirect control over the entire IPC. The linking of Common Fund financing to preconditions in the ICAs would help safeguard Fund assets, increase' the equitable distribution of its lines of credit, and lower the risk of a run on the bank. If the Fund agreement were so drafted its pivotal role would be assured as a coordinating and moderating influence at the heart of the IPC. Developed countries should reverse their opposition to a Common Fund and instead focus their efforts on molding an agreement aimed at preventing the potential abuses which they fear may result. LEGAL SAFEGUARDS AND CONDITIONS The economic and political realities of world commodity trade and its regulation will place great strain on the IPC and its central financing institution. If the Fund is to be more than a short-lived organization, quickly drained of its resources on terms which permit only limited chance of repayment, then it must have power to protect itself. The most effective set of protective measures would have two dimensions. One dimension is the array of safeguards, such as limits on the duration of loans, that protect the Fund from being quickly drained of resources. But a program that relies solely on safeguards to limit the Fund's exposure may prove inadequate if it is unable to attach 1978] 933 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 933 1978 LAW & Pouey IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS adequate lending conditions to protect against default or delays by borrowers. Thus, as an added dimension, the Fund should attach conditions, such as export quotas, to loans to insure that commodity operations are carried out in such a fashion as to make repayment of the loan likely. The two concepts are inseparable and both are crucial to ensuring the Fund's viability. Just as the Fund will take steps to protect its resources from unrestricted borrowing, it can be expected that those states asked to contribute the larger subscriptions will themselves press for terms that ensure their uncalled capital is not called because of defaults on Fund loans. Eugene Rotberg, Treasurer of the World Bank, has explained its members' position as follows: [S]ince access to public markets depends upon the market's perceptions of our financial integrity, we can see, again, why member stockholders who have unpaid capital at risk ... have insisted, and will insist, that we conduct our affairs in such a way that we will remain a prime credit in the eyes of potential bondholders. . . . [O]ur member countries have a strong incentive to insure that the unpaid subscribed capital of the Bank ... need never ... be called . . . . Thus we operate the Bank as if that guarantee of callable capital did not exist. ISI Member countries can best ensure that their capital is not called by providing access to capital markets in their own countries. But access to national markets turns on the market's perceptions of the Fund's viability, and member countries can be expected to require that the Fund's operations and policies be in line with sound banking practice so that when access to capital markets is granted the Fund's bonds are purchased. These principles must be understood in light of certain accepted assumptions about the Fund. It must be operated on a profit making basis in order to generate sufficient funds to attract bond purchasers. The Fund must also ensure its viability by possessing power to review ICAs and their proposed stocking arrangements. Inherent in the power of the Fund to protect its resources by monitoring the ICA's ability to repay loans is the power to persuade commodity organizations to seek changes in their structure or policies. This may take the form of imposing preconditions to 181 E. ROTBERG, supra note 95, at 9, II. [Vol. 10:887 934 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 934 1978 A COMMON FUND finance or conditions on borrowing beyond mInImUm limits. A summary discussion of some recommended and possible conditions follows. (1) The Fund should be able to require the use of production or export controls, particularly in cases where oversupply is a traditional problem. Failure to do so may result in speculators selling off excess supplies in the face of a stockpile commitment to purchase. The downward pressure on prices thus created could prevent subsequent sales from the stockpile and force the ICA into default. (2) The Fund should be able to mandate use of other elements of the IPC where appropriate; multilateral commitments, compensatory finance and diversification can all complement stocking operations and each other. The advantage of UNCT AD's Programme over previous proposals to deal with commodity problems is its use of interrelating mechanisms. For example, commitment agreements establishing minimum sales and purchases to take place within an agreed price range quite obviously make the effort to stabilize prices through stocking easier and more effective. At the same time the existing measures to stabilize prices enhance the appeal of commitment agreements because they minimize the possibility of buying cheap. Such advantages can only accrue if new ICAs adopt a number of interrelated mechanisms, but this does not appear to be happening. Although negotiations to establish new or revised ICAs as part of the IPC are continuing at a slow but steady pace, no UNCTAD proposals have been made to utilize the four interrelating mechanisms in these new agreements. (3) Many early decisions made by ICAs or by the organizations established by these agreements will have a tremendous impact on the Fund. While the Fund should not be able to dictate decisions on such things as stock size, grades stocked or location of stock storage sites, it should have some influence. Since decisions on these points will affect the amount of financing needed from the Fund, it is urged that the opportunities for such influence in negotiation be made more formal. Any action, however, must await conclusion of a Fund agreement itself. In the interim, the UNCT AD Secretariat must guide pending negotiations. (4) Indirect controls over maximum stock holdings are needed. Limits on the size or duration of stockpiles utilizing Fund resources are needed so that prolonged use of borrowed funds or disproportionate borrowing does not occur. 1978] 935 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 935 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS (5) Measures to counteract excess accumulation of stocks must be available. The Fund should require periodic review of support price ranges-at least once every six months. Too high a range could easily lead to rapid and costly accumulation of stocks. The Fund could also require that the buffer stock manager be given standby authority to impose export quotas on a predetermined pro rata share of export sales. This would avoid the delays in drawing up quota measures where a Councilor other governmental meeting is necessary before action could be taken. (6) Where a commodity has been in long-term price decline the Fund should require, as a prerequisite to financing, both a diversification plan for producers and an export quota scheme. (7) When a commodity is undergoing a lengthy, but temporary, adverse price cycle the effects on the Fund's profitability could be mitigated by providing loans which limit the duration and size of commodity stock holdings. Where a commodity organization needs longer term or larger amounts of finance, it should turn to its member states or other international financial institutions for subsidies on its loss-making operations. In addition to its relations with ICAs, the Fund's success requires adherence to certain other principles and legal safeguards. These would be more effective if established by the Fund agreement itself or adopted by the Council. This would give greater certainty to prospective investors than if these were merely "procedures" currently used by management. Although many of the necessary legal safeguards are already widely agreed upon, some need to be emphasized. The financial soundness of the Fund, in large part, depends upon its debt to equity ratio. Initially that ratio should be very low with member states paying in a large proportion, at least one-third, of their subscribed capital contributions. In the event that a significant number of larger industrial nations do not join, the remaining members may have to pay in a larger proportion of their subscriptions. Fund reserves will be almost nonexistent at first. But the extent of reserves is an important factor in selling bonds to increase capital because the reserves form further protection for bondholders. Thus profits should be plowed back as quickly as possible to build up the reserve account. In the Fund's lending activities separate accounts should be maintained for stocking operations and non-stocking operations. [Vol. 10:887 936 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 936 1978 A COMMON FUND Loans in these two categories are quite different in nature and duration. Stock loans are essentially short to medium term, extended on revolving credit and can be secured against stock warrants. Other types of loans are both longer term and unsecured and thus less creditworthy. Separate accounts will minimize effects that problems with long-term loans might have on the Fund's credit or its main activities. The terms of loans should require that they be repaid in the same currency as issued. Revolving automatic credits should be limited. A review of the market situation (e.g., price targets and stock size) would be made for loans greater than the automatic line of credit. An overall limit on borrowing by one commodity organization might be helpful, but knowledge of such a limit might encourage speculation. Finally, it has been proposed that the Fund might in some circumstances intervene directly to stabilize markets for a commodity not covered by an agreement. Such direct activity should only occur where producing states have agreed with the Fund to negotiate an ICA and to assume the debts resulting from market intervention in the event no ICA is concluded. CONCLUSION In negotIatIons on the Common Fund there is room for compromise and interested countries should be willing to make concessions. The present commodity negotiations require a spirit of cooperation and enlightened self-interest. No country can claim a vested interest in unstable commodity markets, nor can any country benefit from maintaining the majority of countries in poverty. Only with increasing income in all countries will developed countries have continued markets for their industrial exports. What are the sources of this enlightened self-interest? Where will nations perceive their best interest to lie? All nations should see the benefits in a new economic order. Developed nations have a great deal to gain from regulation of international commodity trade if it assures adequate supplies of raw materials. Developing nations would gain new markets in the western world for their processed primary products and labor intensive products, and greater access to the capital, technology, and know-how essential to their development plans. Botl). developed and developing countries stand to benefit from measures that stabilize developing country income. 1978] 937 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 937 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS Compensatory finance combined with stocking and commitments will enable development to continue without the disruptions caused by commodity income fluctuations. This in turn will reduce the pressure on developed countries, currently in a recession, to increase their financial aid. Stable prices will also encourage more investment in production, which is badly needed if future supplies are to be adequate. Many developing countries are heavily dependent upon commodity export taxes, thus stabilized demand and prices will generally mean more stable governmel!.t revenue. The single most important gain arising out of an international commodity program would be the lessening of inflationary pressure on the prices of manufactured goods. Because of the "ratchet effect" of commodity price instability, prices of manufactured goods rise in response to commodity price increases while the converse is generally not true. When coffee beans soared so did the price of processed coffee on grocers' shelves, yet no one really expects retail coffee prices to drop in the same proportion as coffee bean prices have dropped. Price stabilization of coffee and other commodities would therefore diminish this ratchet effect and would moderate world price increases. Professor Behrman's empirical study indicates that the United States alone could gain $15 billion over a decade from reduced inflationary pressures if only the ten core commodities were stabilized. 182 Thus it is quite possible that importing countries could gain more than exporting nations. If negotiations on the Common Fund were successful it might also set the stage for cooperation in other areas. For example, developed countries need active collaboration with developing countries to solve the global problems of pollution, environmental safety and population control, but distrust among these countries inhibits meaningful cooperation. Developing countries particularly feel that the developed countries lack a genuine commitment to change in the international economic order. The Fund negotiations are therefore a crucial test of the developed countries' commitment to take concrete and positive steps toward implementing the necessary structural changes in the existing order. For renewed negotiations to succeed, the dialogue between nations must turn away from the rehashing of old arguments. The 182 J. BEHRMAN, supra note 40, at 38-39. 938 [Vol. 10:887 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 938 1978 A COMMON FUND records of past negotiating sessions reveal little flexibility by spokesmen for these nations. This may be attributed in part to the nature of the UNCTAD negotiating process-a process whereby the groups of nations can only advance positions upon which almost all its members agree. Under such conditions bargaining positions cannot develop beyond the most basic points of consensus. Yet neither Group B nor the Group of 77 seems to have resolved the internal divisions that keep them from responding with more constructive proposals. Within Group B there are well known differences between the United States and the EEC as well as differences between the Nordic countries and the Netherlands as a group against the rest of Group B. The differences in the Group of77 are much more severe. Because the parties are under considerable pressure in such conferences to put on appearances of agreement, the official record of the negotiating conferences is not very frank because parties use it to submerge their differences. Because the parties are under considerable pressure to give the appearance of agreement the record fails to disclose the fundamental gaps that permeate the discussions. But the Group of77 differences have significantly hampered negotiations. 183 Concessions acceptable to some members are blocked by others. Each member perceives different interests to be at stake. Some major countries like Brazil and Mexico have substantial interests both as traditional exporters and now, with the development of substantial new industries, as heavy importers. 184 Others feel they are managing well through unilateral or bilateral programs and through producer associations. Thus, Morocco, the largest single producer of phosphates (50 percent world output) did not even attend the recent UNCTAD Conference on an ICA for that commodity.185 Many states are currently members of producer agreements, such as those for copper and bauxite, and are resisting their products being merged into the larger IPC.186 Some states even challenge the basic elements of the IPC. Brazil, for example, believes stockpiling to be counterproductive because it causes increased use of synthetic substitutes. Thus, it is still an open question whether the Group of 77 can maintain effective and unified pressure for the IPC and the Fund. 183 Interview with Mr. Charles Angevine, Office of Commodity Policy, Department of State, in Washington, D.C. (Apr. 26, 1978). 184 Erb & Fisher, supra note 8, at 492. 18. Interview with Mr. Charles Angevine, note 183 supra. 186 Erb & Fisher, supra note 8, at 494. 939 1978] HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 939 1978 LAW & POllCY IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS Even with a unified position it is not yet known whether the Group wants the Fund badly enough to bargain for it. Certainly there have been few if any concessions or compromises by the Group thus far. There is a dilemma for each state, developing and developed. The dilemma lies in the essential requirement that each must contribute now in hopes of gaining in the longer run. There will be short-term costs for all because the New International Economic Order is not one-sided. The dilemma for negotiators in the coming years is to decide how these costs and gains are to be spread fairly. The answer cannot and will not be based upon economic criteria. The issues are too complex in their ideological and political overtones to turn on economic efficiency alone. The choice is between confrontation on the one hand, and cooperation based on compromise on the other. Such compromise, based upon perceived mutual self-interests, requires weighing the costs of continuing confrontation, both political as well as economic, against the potential benefits of cooperation on these issues. 940 HeinOnline -- 10 Law & Pol’y Int’l Bus. 940 1978