An Overview

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International Model for Policy Analysis
of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
(IMPACT Model)
IMPACT Development Team
IMPACT Beginnings
• Early 1990s – IMPACT development begins
– Lack of consensus about policies needed to feed the
world requires new analytical tools
• 1993 – 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the
Environment Initiative.
• 1995 - First published results using IMPACT
– Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for
Investment (Rosegrant, Agcaoili-Sombilla and Perez,
1995)
– Considers the effects of population, investment, and
trade on food security and nutrition in developing
countries
2
IMPACT Timeline
•
•
•
•
1998-2002 – The Food Model integrates a water simulation model
(IWSM)
– Water availability becomes a driving variable on agriculture
productivity
– Food model has to disaggregate regionally to integrate the IWSM
correctly moving from 36 countries to 281 Food Production Units
2000-2005 – Expansion to 40 commodities
2005-2010 – Continued commodity refinement
– Oilseed and Sugar modules Added
– Fish Dropped
2010-2013 – Update to new version of the model (IMPACT 3)
– Base data updated to 2005
– Expansion to 56 commodities
– Geographical disaggregation to 159 regions, 154 basins, and 320 FPUs
3
IMPACT Model - Basic Idea
• The IMPACT model is designed to examine alternative futures
for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food
security.
• The IMPACT model allows IFPRI to provide both fundamental,
global baseline projections of agricultural commodity
production and trade and malnutrition outcomes along with
cutting-edge research results on quickly evolving topics such
as bioenergy, climate change, changing diet/food preferences,
and many other themes.
4
IMPACT Model - Schematic
5
IMPACT Model - Briefly
• Disaggregated agricultural commodities (56 commodities)
• Disaggregated spatial allocation of crop production at sub-national
level (159 countries, and 320 food production units)
• Details on physical use of land and water, trade policies, with
resulting trade
• World food prices are determined annually at levels that clear
international commodity markets
• Iterative year-by-year demand and supply equilibration
• Output indicators – calorie availability, malnutrition measures, share
at risk of hunger, water consumption, yield growth and total
production, area
6
IMPACT Model - Briefly
• Food production is driven by both economic and environmental
factors and has both extensive and intensive components (area x
yield)
• On the production side the model also accounts for the presence of
irrigation and for exogenous technological change
• Food demand is a function of commodity prices, income, and
population
• Feed demand is a function of livestock production, feed prices, and
feeding efficiency
• Other demand changes proportionally to food and feed demand
• Biofuel demand an exogenous calculation of demand for feedstock
from different commodities (sugar, oils, maize, other) to meet a share
of mandates in major countries
7
IMPACT Spatial Resolution
159
154
320
• Countries
• Water Basins
• Food
Production
Units
8
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