Chapter 4 Topic Overview Chapter 4 Bond Characteristics Annual and Semi-Annual Bond Valuation Reading Bond Quotes Finding Returns on Bonds Bond Risk and Other Important Bond Valuation Relationships Valuing Bonds Characteristics of Bonds Bond Characteristics | | | | | | Par (or Face) Value (F) = stated face value that is the amount the issuer must repay, usually $1,000 Coupon Interest Rate Coupon (C) = Coupon Rate x Face Value Maturity Date = when the face value is repaid. A legal contract called the bond indenture specifies these values. This makes a bond’s cash flows look like this: • Bonds pay fixed coupon (interest) payments at fixed intervals (usually every 6 months) and pay the par value at maturity. 0 C/2 C/2 C/2 C/2 … 1 2 ... C/2+F n Bond Pricing Bond Valuation | The price of a bond is the Present Value of all cash flows generated by the bond (i.e. coupons and face value) discounted at the required rate of return. Discount the bond’s cash flows at the investor’s required rate of return. z z z PV = (cpn + par ) cpn cpn + +....+ 1 2 (1 + r ) (1 + r ) (1 + r ) t Bond Valuation Example #1 0 ? 0 Duff’s Beer has $1,000 par value bonds outstanding that make annual coupon payments. These bonds have a 7.5% annual coupon rate and 15 years left to maturity. Bonds with similar risk have a required return of 9%, and Moe Szyslak thinks this required return is reasonable. What’s the most that Moe is willing to pay for a Duff’s Beer bond? the coupon payment (C) stream (an annuity). the par (F) value payment (a lump sum). PV = C (PVAF r, n) + F /(1+r)n C C 1 2 C+F ... n 75 75 75 ... 1000 75 1 2 3 ... 15 r = 9% Let’s Play with Example #1 ? 0 Homer Simpson is interested in buying a Duff Beer bond but demands an 7.5 percent required return. What is the most Homer would pay for this bond? Let’s Play with Example #1 some more. Barney (belch!) Gumble is interested in buying a Duff Beer bond and demands on a 6 percent required return. What is the most Barney (belch!) would pay for this bond? 75 75 75 ... 1000 75 1 2 3 ... 15 75 75 75 ... 1000 75 1 2 3 ... 15 r = 7.5% ? 0 r = 6% Another Example 1 Lesson: Bond Premiums and Discounts Lesson from Example 1: Bond Prices and Interest Rates have an inverse relationship! ($)M arket Value Bond Values for 7.5% Annual Coupon Bond 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 | What happens to bond values if required return is not equal to the coupon rate? The bond's price will differ from its par value 15-yr Bond 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% r > Coupon Interest Rate P0 < par value = DISCOUNT r = Coupon Interest Rate P0 = par value = r < Coupon Interest Rate P0 > par value = PREMIUM PAR Required Return Bonds with Semiannual Coupons Double the number of years, and divide required return and annual coupon by 2. Semiannual Example P0 = C/2(PVFA /2(PVFAr/2,2n) + F /(1+r/2)2n Kwickee-Mart has an $1000 par value bond with an annual coupon rate of 6% that pays coupons semiannually with 20 years left to maturity. What is the most you would be willing to pay for this bond if your required return is 7% APR? Semiannual coupon = 6%/2($1000) = $30 20x2 = 40 remaining coupons 0 30 30 30 ... 1000 30 1 2 3 ... 40 Bond Yields | | | Coupon (Current) Yield - Annual coupon payments divided by bond price. Yield To Maturity - Interest rate for which the present value of the bond’s payments equal the price. Also known as the market’s required rate of return. Yield To Maturity = total expected return = coupon yield + expected capital gains yield (change in price) Bond Yields Yield to Maturity Example Calculating Yield to Maturity (YTM=r) If you are given the price of a bond (PV) and the coupon rate, the yield to maturity can be found by solving for r. PV = cpn cpn (cpn + par ) + +....+ 1 2 (1 + r ) (1 + r ) (1 + r ) t Burns Power $1000 face value bond with a 5% coupon rate paid annually with 10 years left to maturity sells for $890. What is this bond’s yield to maturity? -890 0 50 50 50 ... 1000 50 1 2 3 ... 10 What is bond’s YTM? U.S. Treasury Bond Quotations RATE MATURITY MO/YR 8.875 Feb 19 BID ASKED Government Bonds & Notes 139:27 139:28 Par Value = $1000, semi-annual coupons | Ask Price = 139.875%($1000) = $1398.75 | C/2 = 8.875%($1000)/2 = $44.375 | N = 2019-2006 = 13, 2N = 26 | 4.73 Bid price: the price traders receive if they sell a bond to the dealer. Quoted in increments of 32nds of a dollar Bid prices Ask prices (percentage of par value) Ask price: the price traders pay to the dealer to buy a bond Bid-ask spread: difference between ask and bid prices. Yield to maturity on the ask price Ask Yield Verifying the T-bond’s YTM (Ask Yld) 3 Coupon rate of 8.875% Rate What is the bond’s current yield? ASK YLD CHG Corporate Bond Quotations Company (Ticker) Coupon Maturity Last Price Last Yield Estimated Spread UST Est $ Vol (000s) Ford 6.625 Feb15,20 28 68.25 10.298 565 30 110,064 Corporate prices are quoted as percentage of par, without the 32nds of a dollar quoting convention Yield spread: the difference in yield-to-maturities between a corporate bond and a Treasury bond with same maturity The greater the default risk, the higher the yield spread Causes of Bond Price Changes Bond Value Changes Over Time Since a bond’s cash flows are fixed: 1. Changes in interest rates, and 2. Passage of time. cause changes in a bond’s price. Interest Rate Risk Interest Rate Risk Example Measures Bond Price Sensitivity to changes in interest rates. | In general, long-term bonds have more interest rate risk than short-term bonds. | Also, for bonds with same time to maturity, lower coupon bonds have more interest rate risk than higher coupon bonds. | | | Returning to the Duff’s Beer original example #1, where k = 9%, N = 15, C (PMT) = $75, par (FV) = $1000, & PV = $879.09. What is bond value one year later when N = 14 and r is still = 9%? Recall from our earlier example (#1), the 15-year, 7.5% annual coupon bond has the following values at kd = 6%, 7.5%, & 9%. Let’s compare with a 2-yr, 7.5% annual coupon bond. 15-year bond 2-year bond r=6%: PV = $1,145.68 r=7.5%: PV = $1,000 r=9%: PV = $879.09 PV = $1,027.50 PV = $1,000 PV = $973.61 Interest Rate Risk: Bond Price Sensitivity Graph Bond Values for 7.5% Annual Coupon Bonds 2400 2150 1900 1650 1400 1150 900 650 400 2.0% 2-yr Bond 15-yr Bond 30-yr Bond 4.0% 6.0% Moody' s Aaa AAA Aa AA A A Baa BBB Ba B BB B Caa Ca C CCC CC C Credit risk | Default premium | Investment grade | Speculative grade (Junk bonds) | 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Default Risk Standard & Poor's Default Risk Safety The strongest rating; ability to repay interest and principal is very strong. Very strong likelihood that interest and principal will be repaid Strong ability to repay, but some vulnerability to changes in circumstances Adequate capacity to repay; more vulnerability to changes in economic circumstances Considerable uncertainty about ability to repay. Likelihood of interest and principal payments over sustained periods is questionable. Bonds in the Caa/CCC and Ca/CC classes may already be in default or in danger of imminent default C-rated bonds offer little prospect for interest or principal on the debt ever to be repaid. Bonds by Issuer Corporate Bonds • Usually with par $1000 and semiannual coupon • Bonds if maturity > 10 years; notes if maturity < 10 years Municipal Bonds • Issued by local and state government • Interest on municipal bonds tax-free Treasury Bonds • If maturity < 1 year: Treasury Bills • If 1 year < maturity < 10 years: Treasury Notes • Maturity > 10 years: Treasury Bonds • Used to fund budget deficits Agency Bonds • Issued by government agencies: FHLB, FNMA (Fannie Mae), GNMA (Ginnie Mae), FHLMC (Freddie Mac) Bonds by Features Fixed vs. Floating Rates Secured vs. Unsecured Bonds • Floating-rate bonds: coupon tied to prime rate, LIBOR, Treasury rate or other interest rate • Floating rate = benchmark rate + spread • Floating rate can also be tied to the inflation rate: TIPS, for example • Unsecured bonds (debentures) are backed only by general faith and credit of issuer • Secured bonds are backed by specific assets (collateral) • Mortgage bonds, collateral trust bonds, equipment trust certificates Bonds by Features (Continued) Callable and Putable Bonds • Callable bonds: bond issuer has the right to repurchase the bonds at a specified price (call price). • Firms could retire and reissue debt if interest rates fall. • Putable bonds: the investors have the right to sell the bonds to the issuer at the put price. Protection from Default Risk • Sinking fund provisions: the issuer is required to gradually repurchase outstanding bonds. • Protective covenants: requirements the bond issuer must meet • Positive and negative covenants Bonds by Features (Continued) Zero-Coupon Bonds • Discount bonds or pure discount bonds • Sell below par value • Treasury Bills (Tbills) • Treasury STRIPs Convertible and Exchangeable Bonds • Convertible bonds, in addition to paying coupon, offers the right to convert the bond into common stock of the issuer of the bond • Exchangeable bonds are convertible in shares of a company other than the issuer’s