Standardization on White Spaces Conference on Smart Radios and Smart Markets and Policy David J. Salant CITI and CWRC April, 2007 Introduction z Efficient utilization of spectrum necessarily includes maximizing value, and not just utilization, of all spectrum, including what would otherwise be “white space.” - Informal definition of white space is all parts of spectrum not utilized. White space often refers to areas, both geographic and radio frequency, around licensed transmission sources, such as television stations This presentation compares market models and managed models for reducing unused white space. z Analysis of competitive dynamics in standard-setting process is essential component of analysis. z New technologies can greatly expand potential use of spectrum, but coordination is required to limit interference. z Approaches to Managing Spectrum z Spectrum commons – unlicensed spectrum. - z z Government (e.g., FCC, NTIA) managed Spectrum licenses - z Examples include CB radio, WiFi, many other low power uses. Typically, government agency of standard setting organization will regulate technology, apparatus and/or use. Network and/or apparatus licenses Service restricted/specific Spectrum manager Concession Property rights model requires definition of interference standards, - What are tolerable interference standards vary across technologies and applications. Definition of property rights model is inherently not technology neutral. What White Space is There? z In the UHF/VHF television bands a great deal of white space may be available – one estimate of perhaps 90 MHz of spectrum is available for 50% of US POPs.* z Many other bands have lots of white space – SMR/PMR/PAMR, DOD bands. z Even CMRS bands have unused capacity in urban areas. *Robyn and Jackson (2007) Voice and low bandwidth data in CMRS bands z To maintain quality of service for voice traffic, including target blocking probability, not all capacity on GSM and CDMA networks can be in use at all times. - z z z Voice networks are designed to achieve a target “blocking probability”. Ensuring target blocking probability is achieved requires extra capacity most of the time Unused capacity can be used for low band width data on a best effort basis. Up to some level, data traffic won’t interfere with voice GSM networks not optimized for data, and CDMA networks are making better use of “white space” over time. Voice – data tradeoff text voice Spectrum Sharing Approaches z z z z z For TV white space For intermittent and geographically disperse use For multiple technologies sharing same spectrum Open use spectrum subject to technical limitations Spectrum management policies should accommodate differences across bands and technologies. Low Power v. High Power Applications z For low power in-building and on-campus applications, e.g., WiFi, cordless phones, baby monitors, risk of interfering with other users is limited. - z Users can determine need to control interference with most applications with no need for regulation. Apparatus licensing or labeling is beneficial High power applications require regulation to avoid congestion - Even cognitive and adaptive systems require standards and protocols to avoid interference Spectrum managers/licensees can regulate use of licensed bands. Government can directly regulate bands. Spectrum Sharing Options (1) TV White Space z For TV white space - - z Auctioning of white space donuts – which, due to need for geographic and spectrum buffers, leaves “wasted” spectrum. Spectrum manager concessions – with or without relocating incumbents. The concessions can be provided to incumbents or auctioned. Unlicensed used – standards and possibility cognitive systems might be needed. Widening scope of TV license or auctions of donuts around licensed donut holes can create windfall gains for incumbents - Incumbents are likely to win an overlay auction at a price equal to a fraction of the unencumbered value. Spectrum Sharing Options (2) Overlay on Intermittent and Disperse Uses z z z z Many spectrum uses are intermittent and/or geographically disperse (TV is geographically disperse). Spectrum manager model has been used to facilitate re-farming of point-to-point microwave with other applications, such as point-to-multipoint, (LMDS) and other services. Absent spectrum managers, cognitive systems required to avoid interference. This model assumes overlay system only needs to be adapted to avoid interference with limited set incumbent uses and technologies. Spectrum Sharing Options (3) Interleaving and Interstices z z z z For some sets of applications, the gaps required for one technology and service can be used by another and vice versa. An example is text/data and voice on 2G and 3G networks. Shared use in these cases can require access to common elements in network, such as base station controller. Shared use by independent parties can require unbundling of network elements. Shared Spectrum Options (4) Spectrum Commons z z z z In open commons, some coordination is required. Absent coordination, interference across users, degrading service, is likely if not inevitable. Those using commons can have economic incentives to control use, and limit use of economic rivals. Government or private spectrum manager is likely necessary to coordinate use. - Least intrusive government regulation can be in form of apparatus licensing. Government regulation requires definition of standard. Decision about standard, and use, can be delegated to standard setting organization. Market vs. Mandated Standards z Benefits of mandated standards - - - Government mandate of standard or standard setting process can solve coordination problem. Network effects suggest consumers prefer uniform standard, limiting risk of orphan technologies. Network effect tends to push market toward one standard. z Benefits of market standards. - - - Government or process can pick wrong standard. Mandated standards can limit competition, variety, and retard innovation. Firms will have persistent incentive to invest in incompatible and propriety upgrades or next generation standards. Some Related Literature z z z z z z Arthur’s (1989) – tipping effect of network externalities. Economides, Matutes and Regibeau on compatibility. Church and Gandal, on variety of complementary components with network effects. Farrell & Saloner, Katz and Shapiro, Budd, Harris & Vickers and Cabral & Riordan on competitive dynamics and network effects. David & Greenstein survey types of standard setting processes. Farrell on converters. Dynamic Factors z z z z When the market, and not regulatory mandate, determines standards, early adoption decisions can have a tipping effect For wireless networks, interconnection means that compatibility is not essential Two or more standards can be viable, and tipping effect is less persistent When there are different firms deciding on standards in different regions, the choice in one region can affect optimal choice of standards by all firms in another region A Simple Duopoly Model z z Infinite horizon, discrete time duopoly model. Each firm starts with a technology at a base level, 0, and can make R&D investments to improve its technology to an advanced level, 1. z z z z z Let ПS(j) = each firm’s profit with a common standard in state j = 0, 1. z z z In an initial stage, before investment, firms can choose to make their technologies compatible. If the two firms agree on compatibility, then they will, through a bargaining game, split the surplus, if any, from standardization In the second stage, the firms make R&D investments. The probability of successful R&D in one period when investment is ρ = ½ ρ2 With standardization, one firm’s successful R&D means both firms benefit. With standardization, there are only two states 0 and 1. Let ПD(j,k) = profit for a firm with technology j when its rival has technology k and they invest in different standards. z As one or both firms can succeed, there are four states (0,0), (1,0), (0,1) and (1,1). Assumptions z Assume ПS(j) > ПD(j,j), j =0,1 and b.2 ПS(1) > ПD(0,1) + ПD(1,0) These assumptions mean that at every possible state, product market industry profits are higher with standardization than without. a. z We also assume that at state (1,0) or (0,1), bargaining is costless and perfectly efficient, so that industry profits are the same as at (1,1). Value Functions z Our assumptions imply that once state (1,1) is reached, firms will agree on a common standard, as bargaining is assumed to be efficient and product market profits are maximized with a common standard. z Therefore, firm payoffs at state (1,1) are V(1,1) = 1/(1-δ) ПS(1) where δ is a discount factor. Value Functions Continued z z z Now consider state (1,0). Our assumptions imply that the firms will again choose standardization once (1,0) (or (0,1)) is reached. Thus, V(1,0) + V(0,1) = 2V(1,1) z z The split of 2V(1,1) depends on the outside options, that is, the optimal decision for the firm at state 0, given its rival is at state 1. We show that V(1,0) > V(1,1) > V(0,1). Incentives to Disagree Proposition 1: If ПS(0) - ПD(0,0) is sufficiently small, then standardization occurs in all states other except (0,0). z In other words, firms have incentives to deviate from any single proposed standard. z Result does not require differentiation or inefficient bargaining. Welfare Effects z z z We consider a spatial duopoly where each firm is at one of end of a linear model, and consumer are uniformly distributed. Let k0,c0 and k1,c1 denote fixed and marginal costs of the sellers, with and without standardization. Assume k0 > k1 and c0 > c1, which is consistent with our assumption that profits are greater under standardization. Profits and Welfare z Equilibrium profits are Π = 1/2 t – kj (j =1, 2), and z Consumer surplus is CS = v – t – cj (j =1,2), where t = “transportation” cost. Proposition 2: If (k1 – k0)/(c1 - c0) is sufficiently high, there is no standardization in state (0,0) and no standardization is socially optimal. Conclusions z z z Spectrum set asides for common use can over-ride firm profit making incentives for profits and innovation and reduce welfare. Spectrum managers can allocate spectrum for shared use. Unlicensed spectrum should be available - - For services and technologies that market may not serve – e.g., low power use where transaction costs can be much higher than incremental value that can be provided through market, or For meeting specific policy goals, such as reserving spectrum for new, experimental technologies, or for universal service.