QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) Published online 24 December 2009 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/qj.538 Diabatic heating, divergent circulation and moisture transport in the African monsoon system Samson Hagos* and Chidong Zhang RSMAS, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA ABSTRACT: The dynamics of the West African monsoon system is studied through the diagnosis of the roles of diabatic heating in the divergent circulation and moisture transport. The divergent circulation is partitioned into latent-heating and non-latent-heating (the sum of surface sensible heat flux and radiative heating) driven components based on its field properties and its relationship with diabatic heating profiles. Roles of latent and non-latent diabatic heating in the moisture transport of the monsoon system are thus distinguished. The gradient in surface sensible heat flux between the Saharan heat-low and the Gulf of Guinea drives a shallow meridional circulation, which transports moisture far into the continent on the northern side of the monsoon rain band and thereby promotes the seasonal northward migration of monsoon precipitation. In contrast, the circulation directly associated with latent heating is deep and the corresponding moisture convergence maximum is within the region of precipitation and thus enhances local monsoon precipitation. Meanwhile, latent heating also induces dry air advection from the north. The seasonal northward migration of precipitation is encouraged by neither of the two effects. On the other hand, the divergent circulation forced by remote latent heating influences local moisture distribution through advection. Specifically by bringing Saharan air from the north, and driving moisture to the adjacent oceans, global latent heating has an overall c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society drying effect over the Sahel. Copyright ! KEY WORDS African monsoon; divergent circulation; moisture transport; diabatic heating Received 20 November 2008; Revised 21 September 2009; Accepted 8 October 2009 1. Introduction The West African monsoon (WAM) system is an important component of the regional hydrological cycle on which the livelihood of a large and growing population depends. Understanding its dynamics in general and the roles of the various diabatic processes in particular can help the interpretation of existing uncertainties in the monsoon response to regional and global climate variability and change. For example, the wide range of regional precipitation change projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models for the twentyfirst century (Cook and Vizy, 2006) calls for a thorough comparative assessment of the influence by external forcing and feedback mechanisms on the monsoon dynamics. The WAM system comprises surface southerly and westerly inflows across the Guinean and western coasts of the continent, northeasterly and easterly outflows aloft, and seasonally migrating rainfall from the coast into the continent during spring and summer. Figure 1 shows 1998–2007 mean April–May–June (AMJ) and July–August–September (JAS) winds at 925 hPa and 700 hPa from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP-DOE or NCEP II reanalysis (see section 2 for a description of the data). The precipitation seasonal cycle is accompanied by a boundary-layer southerly ∗ Correspondence to: Samson Hagos, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA99354, USA. E-mail: samson.hagos@pnl.gov c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! flow across the coast of Guinea. Further inland this flow turns southwesterly and meets the dry northeasterly harmattan winds to form a discontinuity often referred to as the intertropical front (ITF). This flow transports moisture into the continent throughout the year, but its northward extent has a seasonal cycle and it reaches its northernmost latitude in August (Figure 1(a) and (b)). Immediately after that, the precipitation peak starts its retreat southward along with the flow and reaches its lowest value in December and January, where the precipitation is limited to about 8◦ N and the precipitation peak is out in the Gulf of Guinea. Above the boundary layer, embedded in the easterlies is a northerly return flow, which along with the boundary-layer southerlies constitutes a shallow meridional overturning circulation (Figure 1(c) and (d)). This shallow meridional circulation shares the southerly surface flow with the deep Hadleylike circulation with return flow above 500 hPa, but its ascending branch is often further to the north (Zhang et al., 2006). Precipitation feedbacks on this circulation include enhancement of surface latent heat flux at the expense of sensible heat flux and radiative cooling (by increased surface wetness and cloudiness), and changing the surface pressure gradient (Taylor, 2008). Furthermore, surface re-evaporation of precipitation has also been known to substantially contribute to the moisture and surface heat budgets over West Africa during the rainy season (Guichard et al., 2009; Miller et al., 2009; Timouk et al., 2009). 412 S. HAGOS AND C. ZHANG Figure 1. Spring (April–May–June) and summer (July–August–September) precipitation (mm/day) from TRMM 3B43 and winds at 925 and 700 hPa from the NCEPII reanalysis. The circulation responsible for moisture transport into the continent is associated with both surface sensible heating and atmospheric latent heating. Hagos and Cook (2007) and Ramel et al. (2006) showed that the abrupt northward shift of the precipitation maximum follows enhanced moisture convergence and condensation over land, which in turn follow the intensification and northward movement of the African heat-low. On the other hand, seasonal cooling of sea-surface temperature (SST) over the Gulf of Guinea (Gu and Adler, 2004; Okumura and Xie, 2004) and topographic effects of the Atlas–Hoggar mountains (Sultan and Janicot, 2003) have also been suggested as playing some roles in the seasonal cycle. But a quantitative assessment of the role of diabatic heating in moisture transport and precipitation feedback has yet to be made. This would provide a clearer insight into the dynamics of the monsoon and its response to perturbations in environmental conditions such as changes in land use, global SST, aerosols etc. Using the relationship between diabatic heating profile and horizontal divergence as well as field properties of the divergent circulations, this study aims to: c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! (1) distinguish the roles of latent and non-latent diabatic heating in the meridional circulation, moisture transport and seasonal cycle of WAM precipitation, and (2) identify the regional controls of the moisture supply for the WAM. 2. Data and method 2.1. Data Data of wind, temperature, water vapour mixing ratio, pressure and precipitation from four reanalysis products were used. They are the ERA40 (Uppala et al., 2005), NCEP/DOE or NCEP II (Kanamitsu et al., 2002), NCEP/NCAR or NCEP I (Kalnay et al., 1996), and JRA25 (Onogi et al., 2007). Six-hourly data for the period 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2007 were used for the last three reanalysis products and daily data from 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2001 for ERA40. All diagnostics described below were applied to the four datasets. First, issues regarding precipitation in the reanalyses need to be addressed. Figure 2 shows a comparison of the Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) DIABATIC HEATING, DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE 413 Figure 2. Mean seasonal cycle of precipitation (mm/day) from (a) TRMM (3B42) and (b)–(e) the four reanalyses. The vertical line represents the approximate latitude of the coastline. seasonal cycles of precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the four reanalyses. The TRMM precipitation data used here (version B43: Huffman et al., 2007) are monthly means on 0.25◦ × 0.25◦ grids. All reanalysis precipitation maxima reach their northernmost positions in August and southern positions in March or April, in agreement with TRMM precipitation. But large discrepancies exist in both the exact latitude and strength between reanalysis and TRMM precipitation, and among the reanalyses themselves. These discrepancies manifest the known problems in precipitation from the reanalyses. They come from the fact that c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! precipitation is a direct product of cumulus parametrization in models for data assimilation, during which corrections are made according to observations for dynamics and certain thermodynamic variables, but not for precipitation. Thus in the subsequent diagnostics and discussions, one has to keep in mind that an inferred dynamically consistent relationship of diabatic heating and the circulation based on the reanalyses is not free of errors due to model flaws. Among others, primary deficiencies of most cumulus parametrization schemes are their inability to produce observed mean vertical structures of diabatic heating Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) 414 S. HAGOS AND C. ZHANG that are an aggregate of different types of individual convective systems in an area represented by a grid point in a climate model (Zhang and Hagos, 2009). A comparison between diabatic heating profiles from observations and the reanalyses (Hagos et al., 2009) reveals that the main discrepancies among the reanalyses resides in their reproductions of low-level heating. Our confidence in a particular result might be built upon the degree of its consistency among the four reanalyses, considering the discrepancies in their precipitation and diabatic heating. On the other hand, we cannot rule out the possibility that the consistency comes from common problems in their parametrizations. Our results, therefore, represent our current knowledge on the issue under study based on the best global data currently available. 2.2. Diabatic heating The total diabatic heating, also known as apparent heating source Q1 (Yanai et al., 1973), which is the sum of latent heating, radiative heating and surface sensible heat fluxes, is calculated as the residual of the thermodynamic equation on pressure surfaces in a manner similar to that by Yanai (1973), Nigam et al. (2000) and Hagos et al. (2009): ! " Cp T ∂θ ∂θ ∂θ ∂θ Q1 = +u +v +ω , (1) θ ∂t ∂x ∂y ∂p where u and v are the zonal and meridional components # $R Cp with T being temperaof horizontal wind, θ = T pps ture, p pressure, ps surface pressure, Cp the specific heat capacity of dry air, and R the specific gas constant of dry air. Q1 is calculated using central finite difference at the horizontal resolution (2.5◦ × 2.5◦ ), using the 6-hourly data (daily for ERA40) at 17 pressure levels (1000, 925, 850, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100, 70, 50, 30, 20 and 10 hPa). To reduce error due to irregular ∂θ pressure-level spacing, ∂p is replaced by p∂ ∂θ ln(p) in the ∂θ finite differencing of Eq. (1). ∂t is also estimated using central finite difference in time. This term has a relatively small contribution to Q1 . Once diabatic heating Q1 is calculated, its relationship with precipitation is used to estimate the relative contributions of latent and non-latent (surface sensible heat flux and radiation) components at every grid point. Figure #3 shows % the$ distribution of normalized diabatic heating Q1 |Q1 | as a function of the associated reanalysis precipitation over the WAM region (box in Figure 1(a)) for the four reanalyses. |Q1 | is the norm of Q1 in the statistical sense, i.e. the diabatic heating at a point is treated as a 17-dimensional vector (for 17 levels) and the norm is the square root of its elements. Since precipitation spans multiple orders of magnitude, the range of precipitation between 10−2 and 102 mm day−1 is partitioned into forty bins on a logarithmic scale to construct its probability distribution function (PDF). The mean normalized heating profile within each bin is plotted. Dashed lines c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! mark precipitation intensity of 1, 2 and 3 mm/day, respectively. The dramatic change in diabatic heating profiles near the 1–3 mm/day precipitation range is apparent. At low precipitation, diabatic heating is dominated by sensible heating near the surface and radiative cooling aloft. As precipitation increases, the diabatic heating maximum is lifted into the mid to upper troposphere, signifying the increased importance of latent heat release by precipitation. Based on this, diabatic heating at a point at any instant is considered to be latent heating if the associated precipitation is greater than a threshold value and the point is treated as a ‘latent heating point’. Otherwise the diabatic heating is mainly composed of sensible heat flux and radiative cooling, and for brevity, the point is referred to as a ‘non-latent heating point’. For consistency this threshold value is set at 2 mm/day for all reanalyses. The sensitivity of this classification to the threshold precipitation is tested. For all reanalyses, moving the threshold value by 1 mm/day results in a maximum change in the categorization of 12%, 4.5%, 2% and 7% of the latent heating for ERA40, NCEPII, NCEPI and JRA25 respectively, but it has little effect on the conclusions drawn from this study. The six-hourly precipitation from NCEPII, NCEPI, and JRA25 is accumulated precipitation, while the wind fields from which diabatic heating is calculated are instantaneous. Possible effects of mismatch between them are evaluated. For this purpose, the relationship between the average of diabatic heating at two successive time steps and precipitation for those reanalyses is examined (Figure 4). The fact that the relationship between diabatic heating and precipitation discussed above still holds suggests that the lag between instantaneous wind and accumulated precipitation has little effect. 2.3. Circulation decomposition We now explain how a divergent circulation can be decomposed into a component that is related to latent heating and another one that is not. Let r i = (xi , yi ) be an element of a set consisting of all grid points in a domain U , where the horizontal divergence is Di = − ∂ωi . ∂p (2) This divergence introduces velocity potential (χ) at point r k = (xk , yk ) given by ∇ 2 χki = D i = j =NU & δij D j (3) j =1 where δij is the Kroneker Delta defined as δij = 1 if i = j and δij = 0 otherwise, NU is the number of points ∂ ∂ + j • ∂y is the horizontal in domain U , and ∇ = i • ∂x divergence operator. The velocity potential at point r k due to horizontal divergence in domain L, an arbitrary subset of U with Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) DIABATIC HEATING, DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE 415 Figure 3. Normalized diabatic heating profiles vs. precipitation intensity (mm/day) and the PDF of precipitation (in %) over the WAM domain (the box in Figure 1(a)). The dashed lines mark 1, 2 and 3 mm/day precipitation. (Jaluria and Torrance, 2003) over the tropical domain (42.5◦ S to 42.5◦ N), with vanishing divergent wind at the =NU i=N &L j& lateral boundaries. Sensitivity tests showed that moving ∇ 2 χkL = δij D j (4) the lateral boundaries any further poleward has no sigi=1 j =1 nificant effects on the results of the study. Once the two The set of ‘latent heating points’ and its complement, parts of velocity potential are calculated, their respective the set of ‘non-latent heating points’, both defined in the associated divergent winds are determined by last subsection, constitute two subsets of U : L1 = lh and v nonlh = ∇ χ nonlh (6) div L2 = nonlh. The total velocity potential at point r k can be written as: and NL elements, is then ∇ 2 χk = ∇ 2 χknonlh + ∇ 2 χklh (5) where and are the velocity potentials due solely to all ‘non-latent heating points’ and all ‘latent heating points’, respectively. This approach is analogous to the calculation of the electrical potential associated with a set of point charges (Jackson, 1999), stream function due to point vortices (Batchelor, 2000), or heat conduction in the presence of point heat sources (Selvadurai, 2000; Arfken and Weber, 2005). Equation (3) is solved for ‘non-latent heating’ and ‘latent heating’ points using Gauss–Seidel iteration χknonlh χklh c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! lh v lh div = ∇ χ . 2.4. (7) Moisture convergence and transport The total horizontal moisture divergence is divided into divergence by divergent winds and advection by nondivergent wind: ∇ • (qv) = ∇ • (qvdiv ) + vnondiv • ∇q. (8) The horizontal divergence of moisture associated with divergent wind is further divided into those associated Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) 416 S. HAGOS AND C. ZHANG Figure 4. Same as Figure 3 except diabatic heating is an average of successive times to match the forecast precipitation. with latent and non-latent heating (sensible heating and NCEPI, NCEPII and JRA25, and daily for ERA40) then radiative cooling), respectively, as follows averaged into monthly data. All subsequent discussions are based on a 10-year climatology, except 4 years for ' ( ' nonlh ( ∇ • (qvdiv ) = ∇ • qvlh + ∇ • qv . (9) ERA40. div div The horizontal divergence of moisture associated with latent heating is divided into parts associated with wind 3. Results convergence and advection; ' ( ' lh ( lh ∇ • qvlh (10) 3.1. Mean summer circulation patterns div = q∇ • vdiv + (vdiv • ∇)q. Equation (10) separates the local and remote effects of latent heating on moisture convergence. At a ‘latent heating point’, the first term on the r.h.s. of Eq. (10) represents moisture convergence associated with the local latent heating and depends on the local wind convergence and mixing ratio. The second term represents the advection of moisture by the wind associated with the latent heating throughout the domain. Even though latent heating and the associated convergence at a point may be zero, there is non-zero wind at that point due to latent heating at all other points in the domain. In the presence of moisture gradient, this wind introduces advection. All the above calculations are done at the maximum temporal resolution of the reanalyses (6-hourly for c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! Diabatic processes are involved in shaping the nondivergent circulation, through vorticity dynamics (Hsien and Cook, 2007). But their primary role in the Tropics is balancing the local vertical motion and associated divergent circulation. In order to assess their roles in the monsoon dynamics, the divergent and non-divergent components of the circulation and their moisture transport are separated. The meridional circulation and moisture convergence associated with total, divergent and non-divergent circulations from the four reanalyses are displayed in Figure 5. In all four reanalyses, there are roughly equal surface southerly monsoon flows in the divergent and non-divergent components over the ocean. The divergent component of the surface monsoon flow Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) DIABATIC HEATING, DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE 417 Figure 5. Meridional–vertical circulation, its divergent and non-divergent components, and their moisture convergence (shading, g kg−1 day−1 ) in summer (JAS), all averaged over 15◦ W–10◦ E. The solid and dashed straight lines mark the coastline and latitude of the precipitation maximum, respectively. apparently penetrates much further north than its nondivergent counterpart. Both deep and shallow meridional circulations are primarily divergent with the low-level northerly return flow peaking at about 700 hPa, distinctly separated from the deep return flow with its maximum at 300 hPa. Near the surface, there is moisture divergence over the Gulf of Guinea. Over land, there are two surface convergence zones, one centred at the precipitation region c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! (whose maximum is marked by the vertical dashed line) and another further north. The amount of convergence in the secondary maximum north of the precipitation varies among the reanalyses. It is strongest in JRA25 and weakest in ERA40. The non-divergent circulation over West Africa is primarily zonal, and since the moisture gradient is primarily meridional, the former has very little contribution to the total moisture convergence. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) 418 S. HAGOS AND C. ZHANG Figure 6. Total divergent meridional–vertical circulation, its components related to latent heating and non-latent heating, and their moisture convergence (shading, g kg−1 day−1 ) in summer (JAS), averaged over 15◦ W–10◦ E. The solid and dashed straight lines mark the coastline and latitude of the precipitation maximum, respectively. The divergent circulation seen in Figure 5 is further decomposed into components related to latent heating (LHDIV) and non-latent heating (NONLHDIV) in Figure 6 as calculated by the procedure described in the last section. Also shown in Figure 6 is the associated moisture convergence. The two components of the divergent meridional circulation differ in their vertical structure and their roles in moisture transport. The latent heating component is deep and more or less symmetric about c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! the latitude of the precipitation maximum (the dashed line). It drives moisture convergence into the region of precipitation. It also drives low-level dry air from the north into the precipitation region. This pattern is apparent in all reanalyses. The shallow meridional circulation is part of the circulation associated with non-latent heating (NONLHDIV). Its subsidence branch is over the Gulf of Guinea. It transports moisture from the Gulf of Guinea (note the moisture divergence there) deep into the Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) DIABATIC HEATING, DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE 419 Figure 7. Seasonal cycle of vertically integrated moisture convergence (g kg−1 day−1 ) in the WAM by TOTAL, LHDIV and NONLHDIV winds. The contours represent associated reanalysis precipitation (mm/day). continent, penetrating through the precipitation region. Its centre of surface convergence is north of the precipitation region near the heat-low, where its ascending branch is located. From there, its low-level northerly return flow extends all the way through the region of precipitation to the Gulf of Guinea. The reason for the difference between the circulation patterns lies in the profile of vertical velocity associated with the diabatic heating involved. The profile of latent c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! heating (and the associated vertical velocity) is middle heavy (Figure 3) and the associated divergence is in the upper troposphere. The shallow meridional circulation results from strong surface sensible heating capped by radiative cooling, resulting in a profile that favours horizontal divergence in the lower troposphere. In the upper troposphere, latent heating drives a symmetric circulation with respect to the latitude of the precipitation maximum and produces a strong upper-level southerly Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) 420 S. HAGOS AND C. ZHANG Figure 8. Seasonal cycle of moisture convergence (g kg−1 day−1 ) averaged over the WAM domain (box in Figure 1(a)). flow north of the precipitation region. This southerly flow force moisture transport into the continent. This transis roughly cancelled by the northerly flow of the non- port compensates the dry air advection by the latentlatent heating driven circulation. heating driven circulation and thus enables the northward advance of the total moisture convergence. Therefore, non-latent diabatic heating helps the seasonal northward 3.2. Seasonal cycle migration of monsoon precipitation, while latent heatSeasonal cycles of the vertically integrated moisture con- ing helps maintain the strength of monsoon precipitavergence and its latent and non-latent (sensible heat fluxes tion. The relative contributions of latent and non-latent plus radiative cooling) components are shown in Figure 7 heating vary among the reanalyses. In ERA40 latentwith the contours of the annual cycles of precipitation for heating driven convergence dominates, and the total each reanalysis. The maximum of total moisture converand latent-heating related moisture convergence resemgence is generally to the north of the precipitation in ble each other. But in the other reanalyses, non-latent spring in all the reanalyses except ERA40. During this heating driven convergence dominates as demonstrated period much of the moisture convergence over land is by the peak in the total moisture convergence north of due to non-latent diabatic heating which is particularly the precipitation maxima throughout the year. In NCEP I weak in ERA40. In summer, when the non-latent heatand II, the spatial separation of the moisture convergence ing driven convergence is weak, the regions of maximum due to latent and non-latent heating is so large that they precipitation and maximum moisture convergence tend to together result in double peaks in total moisture converbe collocated. This is expected since latent heating within gence in August and September, one in the precipitation the region of precipitation becomes the primary forcing for the moisture convergence. Furthermore, latent heat- region, one to the north. In general, if non-latent heating also induces dry air advection (moisture divergence) ing forced convergence is relatively strong, the monsoon to the north of the precipitation region and limits the precipitation tends to migrate deeper into the continent northward expansion of the total moisture convergence (NCEPII, NCEPI and JRA25), otherwise moisture conand precipitation. The moisture convergence associated vergence is primarily forced by the local latent heating with non-latent heating is always north of the precipita- and the northward migration of the monsoon precipitation tion maximum. Throughout the year, sensible heat fluxes is limited (ERA40). c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) DIABATIC HEATING, DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE 421 Figure 9. Seasonal cycle of precipitation (mm/day) and moisture convergence (g kg−1 day−1 ) for 2005 (solid) and 2006 (dashed). The different roles of latent and non-latent heating in moisture transport into the continent can also be demonstrated by the seasonal cycles in the amount of total moisture convergence and its components averaged over the West Africa domain (the box in Figure 1(a)). The distinct seasonal evolutions of the moisture convergence associated with non-latent and latent heating are striking (Figure 8). The moisture convergence associated with non-latent heating has a semi-annual cycle, with minima in January (because of the solar cycle) and August (because of a reduction in surface sensible-heat fluxes due to strong precipitation, heavy cloudiness, etc.). The moisture convergence associated with latent heating on the other hand has a strong seasonal cycle. Before the rainy season, latent heating from precipitation to the south drives dry air to West Africa from the north. After convergence forced by non-latent diabatic heating has reached its maximum, the rainy season arrives and the role of latent heating changes dramatically. The local convergence effect (first term on the r.h.s. of Eq. (10)) of latent heating dominates the advective effect and thus positive c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! feedback is switched on. Total moisture convergence is enhanced even though the increase in precipitation is accompanied by reduced moisture convergence due to non-latent diabatic heating. The moisture convergence by non-divergent wind is relatively small and shows little seasonal variability. 3.3. Special cases in 2005 and 2006 Even though interannual variability of the African monsoon is beyond the scope of this study, a brief comparison of the seasonal cycles of moisture convergence of the two AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis) years is given. Figure 9 shows the precipitation from TRMM and NCEPII reanalysis as well as the total and the two components of moisture convergence for the years 2005 and 2006 over West African (box in Figure 1(a)). In the TRMM data, the most prominent difference between the precipitation cycles of the two years is the month of peak precipitation. It was June in 2005 and August in 2006. In the reanalysis, on the Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) 422 S. HAGOS AND C. ZHANG Figure 10. July–August–September convergence (CONVLH, left panels, shading) and advection (ADVLH, right panels, shading) components of moisture convergence (g kg−1 day−1 ) by latent heating. The contours are vertically averaged mixing ratio (g kg−1 ). c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) DIABATIC HEATING, DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE 423 Figure 11. Schematic diagrams summarizing the divergent circulations (arrows), their moisture transport (shading of the arrows) and convergence (ovals) associated with non-latent and latent heating in the West African monsoon system. Amount of moisture transport increases from white to dark shading. other hand, the precipitation peak is in July in 2005 and September in 2006. Therefore once again, direct interpretation of the reanalysis moisture convergence to explain the observed seasonal cycle of precipitation could lead to an erroneous conclusion. However, insight into some of the mechanisms through which interannual variability is introduced in the monsoon cycle can be gained by considering the seasonal cycle of the components of moisture convergence discussed above. c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! Consider the 2005 and 2006 total moisture convergence from the reanalysis (Figure 9(c)). Of particular interest is the difference between May, June and July months of the two years. The reason for the particularly large (about 25%) difference during this period transition is related to the distinct roles of latent heating discussed in the last subsection. During the dry period latent heating elsewhere advects dry air and suppresses convergence, while in the wet period local latent heating enhances Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) 424 S. HAGOS AND C. ZHANG convergence. Figure 9(d) shows the evolution of the moisture convergence associated with latent heating. In April 2005, the negative (remote diverging) effect of latent heating prevails in both years. This remains the case for 2006 until late June. But in 2005, the role of latent heating has become positive (local converging) by early June and hence the large difference in latent-heating driven moisture convergence and the total moisture convergence during that month between the two years. One has to keep in mind that the changing role of latent heating early in the rainy season only amplified differences. This difference is ultimately caused by the processes that led to the early arrival of precipitation and the associated latent-heating driven convergence in 2005 in comparison to 2006. One plausible candidate for this is the larger non-latent heating moisture convergence in the spring of 2005 compared to that of 2006 (Figure 9(e)). Particularly in May, the difference is about 25%. Nevertheless, latent-heating feedback through moisture convergence appears to play an important role in the year-to-year variations of the moisture convergence cycle, especially during the early months of the rainy season. 3.4. Influences of local and remote latent heating As noted in section 3.2, latent heating plays two roles in moisture transport. Locally it favours moisture convergence into the region of precipitation and meanwhile drives the large-scale circulation that may advect remote dry air towards the precipitation region from the north. In this section, these two roles are compared. Moisture convergence associated with latent heating is decomposed according to Eq. (10) into one term corresponding to moisture convergence at a point driven by local latent heating (CONVLH) and the second term (ADVLH) representing the total advection related to all latent heating in the global Tropics. Figure 10 shows the July–August–September climatological means of the two components of moisture convergence associated with latent heating. As expected, local precipitation–convergence feedback is most effective over regions with high precipitation and high moisture. Those are the western coast of Africa and the Cameroon highlands. More remarkable, however, is the response of the Sahel region to remote latent heating. Because it straddles the Sahara region, the Sahel is a region of strong moisture gradients (Figure 10 contours). A circulation pattern with a wind component against this gradient advects dry air from the Sahara into the Sahel. Those are the circulation patterns forced by remote latent heating. In other words, the aggregate of circulations forced by convective activities throughout the Tropics mixes the dry Sahara air with the Sahel air to inhibit moisture convergence. 4. Discussion Latent and non-latent (surface sensible heat flux and radiation) heating processes play vastly different roles in c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Copyright ! the dynamics of the African monsoon system because of their associated vertical velocity and horizontal divergence profiles. Their different roles are summarized in Figure 11. Northward moisture transported from the Gulf of Guinea by the latent-heating driven deep circulation converges inside the monsoon rain band and thereby helps maintain the strength of monsoon precipitation. Its dry air advection into the monsoon rain band from the north, on the other hand, does not help the seasonal northward migration of monsoon precipitation. This negative feedback is largely compensated by the moisture transport of the shallow circulation driven by non-latent diabatic heating, which penetrates through the monsoon rain band and converges north of it. In this sense, the non-latent heating driven shallow circulation plays an indispensable role in the seasonal advance of monsoon precipitation in boreal spring. This result suggests that if a GCM has difficulties in reproducing the WAM seasonal cycle with its rain band reluctant to migrate deep inland, its simulated shallow meridional circulation might be too weak. Throughout the year, the near-surface circulation driven by non-latent (sensible) heating gradient between the Saharan heat-low and the cold tongue of the Gulf of Guinea supplies moisture to West Africa. This moisture supply has a semi-annual cycle with minima in January and August and maxima in May and October. The moisture transport by the latent-heating driven circulation, in contrast, has a clear seasonal cycle. In the dry season, the circulation driven by regional latent heating advects dry air from the north and suppresses local moisture convergence. This distinction of the roles of various components of heating has a potential to improve our understanding of the nature of interannual variability, as demonstrated by comparison of moisture convergence in 2005 and 2006. In those cases, stronger moisture convergence by sensible heating fluxes in spring of 2005 appear to have led to earlier arrival of precipitation and greater latent-heating feedback, in comparison to that of 2006. An analysis of the regional dependence of the local and remote influences of latent heating shows that effects of local moisture convergence are the strongest over regions of high precipitation, such as the western coast of Africa and the Cameroon highlands. The remote advective effects dominate over the region of strong moisture gradient, e.g. the Sahel. The results of this study provide further thermodynamic and dynamical dimension to the emerging consensus that the Sahel droughts of the 1980s are indeed related to warm SSTs and the enhanced convective activities over the tropical southern oceans (Giannini et al., 2003; Lu and Delworth, 2005; Hagos and Cook, 2008 and references therein). This mechanism might have played a role in the observed decline in the Sahel precipitation in response to warming and enhanced convection over the adjacent oceans. While the processes discussed in this study are fairly consistent in all reanalyses used, the magnitude and contribution of each process in the monsoon dynamics vary among them. A case in point is the relatively weak nonlatent heating moisture convergence in ERA40 and a lack of inland migration of the associated precipitation when Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136(s1): 411–425 (2010) DIABATIC HEATING, DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE 425 Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-global, multiyear, combinedcompared to those of the other reanalyses. In light of the sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. J. Hydrometeorol. 8: uncertainties in the future of the monsoon in the twenty38–55. first century, the tools presented in this study can be used Jackson JD. 1999. Classical electrodynamics, 3rd edition. John Wiley to evaluate climate models on their faithful representation & Sons: New York. nd of diabatic processes and their roles in moisture trans- Jaluria Y, Torrance KE. 2003. Computational heat transfer, 2 edition. Taylor & Francis. port. Specifically, vertical profiles of diabatic heating are Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, closely related to the circulation patterns. Therefore, evalIredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, uation of modelled and observed diabatic heating profiles Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D. 1996. The and their implications for moisture transport and surNCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. face–air interaction may be a good starting point. 77: 437–471. Acknowledgements This study was supported by NASA TRMM/GPM Project Award Number, NNX07AD41G. NCEP Reanalyses Derived data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/. ERA-40 data are provided by the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts, from their web site at http://www.ecmwf.int/. JRA-25 data are provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) at their web site at http://jra.kishou.go.jp/index en.html and the TRMM data provided by TRMM Science Data Information System (TSDIS). 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