ASEAN, Japan, & China
Historical legacy (1942 - 1945)
• Japan occupied the whole Southeast Asia
Japan’s Appeal in WWII
• Japan’s appeal to Southeast Asia during
World War II
– Economic benefits
• Japanese model for economic development since
the Meiji Restoration of 1868
• ``Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere”
– Anti-colonialism
• ``Asia for the Asians”
• nationalist movements
``Co-Prosperity Sphere”
• ``Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere”
• Japan’s economic foreign policy During
World War II
• Absorption of the economies of all
occupied countries
• Extraction of resources to fuel the war
against the Allies
Consequence of WWII
• How did Southeast Asia change?
– Decline of Western colonial power
– Decline of the myth of European superiority
– Rise in
• Southeast Asian independence movements
• Japanese interests and influence in Southeast
Asia
• US interests and influence in Southeast Asia
– Integration into global economy & community
Japan Returns (1950s)
• US strategy concerning Japan
– ``dynamo of wider regional recovery in Free
Asia”
– contain Communism
• Closure of China market to Japan in 1950s
and 1960s
– Japan’s economic dependence on US
– materials and markets of Southeast Asia
Japan & Southeast Asia: 1
• Japan’s economic diplomacy in ASEAN
– bilateral trade promotion & economic linkage
• >1/4 of ASEAN’s total trade was with Japan
• Japan invest more in ASEAN than US
– Asian Development Bank (established in 1966)
– avoid taking any political initiative
• 1974: anti-Japanese demonstrations
during Japanese Prime Minister’s visit
ASEAN Attitudes
• Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew
said in 1969:
– ``My generation and that of my elders cannot
forget [WWII] as long as we live”
– ``The policy of our government is not to allow
the unhappy experiences of the past to inhibit
us from a policy which can enhance our
growth rates by Japanese participation”
P.R.C. and ASEAN: 1
• In 1960s, Mao supported communist
insurgencies in Southeast Asia
– PRC-ASEAN relations were damaged by
Mao’s policies during Cultural Revolution
• changes in 1970s
– PRC domestic policies became less radical
– U.S. President Nixon visited Beijing and
Shanghai
Japan & Southeast Asia: 2
• Anti-Japanese demonstrations of 1974
• Fall of South Vietnam in 1975
• Japan began taking an active interest in
the political affairs of Southeast Asia
– from bilateral relations to focus on ASEAN
Japan’s Reaction to 1978
• 1978: Vietnam invaded Cambodia
– threatened Japan’s economic interests
– Japan maintained a dialogue with Vietnam
• Japan’s reaction
– aligned with US-ASEAN-PRC camp
– halted economic assistance to Vietnam
– called for Vietnam to withdrew all troops from
Cambodia
P.R.C. and ASEAN: 2
• US relationship with PRC normalized in
1979
– US-PRC alignment in opposing the spread of
Soviet influence in Southeast Asia
– ASEAN-PRC alignment in opposing Vietnam
• PRC started reform and opening in 1979
– trade and economic ties with ASEAN gained
importance
ASEAN’s Attitude to Japan
• Distrust remained but reduced
• Fears of Japan’s imperialist tendencies
remained but reduced
ASEAN-Japan Econ. Links
• Economic links strengthened
– ASEAN countries’ development programs
needed Japan’s support and investment
• Japan as an economic model and partner
– Malaysia’s ``Look East”
– Laos and Singapore’s ``Learn from Japan”
• Complementary economies of Southeast
Asia and Japan
Japan & Southeast Asia: 3
• Since the end of the Cold War
• Japan redefined its role in international
affairs after the Cold War
• Japan-ASEAN relationship strengthened
– greater interactions
• ASEAN as a region and as an institution
– Japan’s deeper involvement in regional affairs
• more politically engaged
Japan’s Political Role
• 1990: Tokyo Conference on Cambodia
• 1992: Japan sent 1,800 troops as UN
peacekeeping forces to Cambodia
• since 1994: active participant in regional
multilateral arrangements such as ASEAN
Regional Forum (ARF)
• since 1997: political/security dialogues
with Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia
ASEAN Receptiveness
• Malaysia Prime Minister Mahathir said in
1991:
– ``As we approach the year 2000, it is our
hope that Japan will initiate changes in its
policies that will effectively bring about an
enhanced political, socio-cultural role in not
only the Southeast Asia region but also in the
global context”
Diminishing Role of History
• After the Cold War
• Increasing economic interdependence
between Japan & Southeast Asia
• Fear of Japanese remilitarization reduced
• Generation change
• “China threat”
Rise of China
• China’s ``Reform & Opening-up” policy
• Increasing presence in Southeast Asia
– Expanding trade
– Political relations and influence
• visits by leaders and summit meetings
• substantive agreements on issues ranging from
trade to military cooperation
• by 1991 PRC has normalized relations with all the
ASEAN member states
Growing Regionalism (A+3)
• 1995: Asia-Europe Meeting in Bangkok
– ASEAN asked Japan, China, & South Korea
to join as Asian representatives
– Japan feared alienating US & China
• US & Australian reservations about a
regional grouping in Pacific Asia
– impact on the success of APEC
– possible division of global economy
ASEAN+3 Summit
• China & Japan compete for regional
leadership position
• ASEAN+3 summit has taken place at each
of the ASEAN summit since 1997
• regular ASEAN+3 meetings of finance &
economic ministers
Asian Financial Crisis (‘97)
• Japan’s role in Southeast Asia
– contribution of funds and initiatives
• emergency financial assistance
• aid plan for regional human resource development
• cooperation in information technology sector
– inaction on banking reforms
– ineffective economic stimulus measures
• ASEAN urged faster action to help
recovery
Asian Financial Crisis (‘97)
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China’s role:
refrained from devaluing yuan
contribution of funds and initiatives
entry into World Trade Organization (2001)
ASEAN-PRC Free Trade Area (2001)
threatens Japan’s economic leadership in
Southeast Asia
Japan
• Japan signed its first-ever free-trade
agreement (with Singapore) in 2002
• Economic Partnership Agreements (EPA)
ASEAN Free-Trade Agreements
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ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA
ASEAN-China FTA
ASEAN-India FTA
ASEAN-Japan FTA
ASEAN-Korea FTA
ASEAN and its FTA partners negotiations
for the Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership (RCEP)
Conclusions
• ASEAN+3 have considerable potential
– APEC may be too broad
– ASEAN may be too narrow
• Contested regional leadership position
between Japan and China
• Japan: the most advanced economy in
Asia
• China’s momentum