General Obligation School Bonds - Gadsden Independent School

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Strictly Private and Confidential
Gadsden Independent School District No. 16
$9,500,000 - General Obligation School Building Bonds, Series 2014
August 14, 2014
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1
History of Assessed Valuation
2010
Residential
Non-Residential
Total
2011
2012
2013
2014*
$414,742,749
$418,843,096
$429,846,775
$444,769,473
$460,825,365
334,064,333
338,275,688
370,439,960
378,480,422
406,913,945
$748,807,082
$757,118,784
$800,286,735
$823,249,895
$867,739,310
5.7%
1.1%
5.7%
2.9%
5.4%
% Change Over Previous Year
* Preliminary.
Source: New Mexico Taxation & Revenue Department.
History of Assessed Valuation
$1,000,000,000
6.0%
$900,000,000
5.0%
$800,000,000
$700,000,000
4.0%
$600,000,000
$500,000,000
3.0%
$400,000,000
2.0%
$300,000,000
$200,000,000
1.0%
$100,000,000
$0
0.0%
2010
2011
Residential
2
2012
Non-Residential
2013
% Change Over Previous Year
2014*
New vs. Re-Appraisal
TY2013
Total Residential
Total Non-Residential
Total Assessor's Valuation
Central Assesment
TOTAL AV
New
Re-Appraisal
TY2014
Total Assessor's Valuation
Central Assesment
TOTAL AV
Total Assessor's Valuation
Central Assesment
TOTAL AV
$4,686,542
1.05%
$460,825,365
3.73%
$2,792,322
$279,232
10.00%
$461,104,597
3.79%
3.64%
(5,192,732)
-2.37%
221,877,117
1.27%
11,969,082
3,590,725
30.00%
225,467,842
2.91%
0.00%
$682,702,482
2.92%
$14,761,404
$3,869,957
20.00%
$686,572,439
3.50%
185,036,828
13.08%
7,988,750
0.00%
185,036,828
13.08%
$867,739,310
4.93%
$22,750,154
20.00%
$871,609,267
5.39%
$22,750,154
2.62%
$663,359,336
0.00%
163,639,459
$826,998,795
$0
0.00%
$0
0.00%
New
Re-Appraisal
TY2013
Total Assessor's Valuation
Central Assesment
TOTAL AV
$3,869,957
Protested
Protested Value Back
% of
Actual Final
%
Property
on Tax Roles
Protested
Value
Growth
$12,785,724
2.97%
$2,771,995
0.64%
$445,404,494
3.62%
$1,175,314
($1,143,069)
-97.26%
$444,261,425
3.35%
228,548,616
3,011,334
1.32%
(17,417,052)
-7.62%
214,142,898
-6.30%
4,772,969
4,955,013
103.81%
219,097,911
-4.14%
$658,395,391
$15,797,058
2.40%
($14,645,057)
-2.22%
$659,547,392
0.17%
$5,948,283
$3,811,944
64.08%
$663,359,336
0.75%
163,639,459
15.33%
9,044,646
0.00%
163,639,459
15.33%
$823,186,851
2.86%
$14,992,929
25.42%
$826,998,795
3.34%
$11,180,985
1.36%
141,891,344
$800,286,735
$15,797,058
1.97%
New
($14,645,057)
-1.83%
Re-Appraisal
TY2012
$3,811,944
Protested
Protested Value Back
% of
Actual Final
%
Property
on Tax Roles
Protested
Value
Growth
$418,843,096
$7,017,707
1.68%
$1,276,550
0.30%
$427,137,353
1.98%
$2,676,584
$2,709,422
101.23%
$429,846,775
2.63%
207,279,605
5,052,499
2.44%
9,327,308
4.50%
221,659,412
6.94%
9,249,180
6,889,204
74.48%
228,548,616
10.26%
$626,122,701
$12,070,206
1.93%
$10,603,858
1.69%
$648,796,765
3.62%
$11,925,764
$9,598,626
80.49%
$658,395,391
5.15%
141,891,344
8.32%
965,549
0.00%
141,891,344
8.32%
$790,688,109
4.43%
$12,891,313
74.46%
$800,286,735
5.70%
$3,292,687
0.42%
130,996,083
$757,118,784
$12,070,206
1.59%
New
$10,603,858
1.40%
Re-Appraisal
TY2011
$9,598,626
Protested
Protested Value Back
% of
Actual Final
%
Property
on Tax Roles
Protested
Value
Growth
$414,742,749
$9,539,915
2.30%
($5,097,867)
-1.23%
$419,184,797
1.07%
$927,880
($341,701)
-36.83%
$418,843,096
0.99%
210,980,842
1,115,353
0.53%
(12,168,192)
-5.77%
199,928,003
-5.24%
13,010,716
7,351,602
56.50%
207,279,605
-1.75%
$625,723,591
$10,655,268
1.70%
($17,266,059)
-2.76%
$619,112,800
-1.06%
$13,938,596
$7,009,901
50.29%
$626,122,701
0.06%
130,996,083
6.43%
286,418
0.00%
130,996,083
6.43%
$750,108,883
0.17%
$14,225,014
49.28%
$757,118,784
1.11%
$7,215,113
0.96%
123,083,491
$748,807,082
$10,655,268
1.42%
Actual Protested Property/Total AV
Source: Dona Ana & Otero County Assessor's Office PTD-02 and PTD-03 Reports.
3
-
$429,846,775
TY2010
Total Non-Residential
Growth
2.67%
Actual Protested Property/Total AV
Total Residential
%
Value
7,971,938
TY2011
Total Non-Residential
Estimated Final
Protested
$11,877,398
Actual Protested Property/Total AV
Total Residential
% of
Back on Tax Roles
219,097,911
TY2012
Total Non-Residential
Est. Protested Value
Property
$444,261,425
Protested Property/Total AV
Total Residential
Protested
($17,266,059)
-2.31%
$7,009,901
History of Tax Rates
Tax Year
Operational
Resid.
Non-Resid.
Two Mill Levy
Resid.
Non-Resid.
Debt Service
ETN
Bonds
Total
Debt Service
Resid.
Total
Non-Resid.
2014*
$0.322
$0.500
$2.000
$2.000
$2.238
$12.076
$14.314
$16.636
$16.814
2013
0.322
0.500
2.000
2.000
1.926
12.400
14.326
16.648
16.826
2012
0.317
0.500
2.000
2.000
1.756
12.575
14.331
16.648
16.831
2011
0.308
0.500
2.000
2.000
3.858
10.480
14.338
16.646
16.838
2010
0.298
0.500
2.000
2.000
4.044
10.308
14.352
16.650
16.852
2009
0.276
0.500
2.000
2.000
3.676
10.676
14.352
16.628
16.852
2008
0.268
0.500
2.000
2.000
2.587
11.752
14.339
16.607
16.839
2007
0.267
0.500
2.000
2.000
-
14.345
14.345
16.612
16.845
2006
0.265
0.500
2.000
2.000
0.827
13.515
14.342
16.607
16.842
2005
0.256
0.500
1.936
2.000
1.198
13.150
14.348
16.540
16.848
Source: New Mexico Public Education Department
*Estimated
History of Total Residential Tax Rates
18
Total Residential Tax Rate
16.636
16.648
16.648
16.646
16.650
16.628
16.607
16.612
16.607
16.540
13.515
13.150
0.827
1.198
2.000
1.936
16
14
12
10.480
10.308
10.676
Operational Residential
12.076
11.752
12.400
12.575
10
14.345
Two Mill Levy Residential
8
ETN Debt Service
Bonds Debt Service
6
3.858
4
2.238
1.926
4.044
3.676
2.587
1.756
2
2.000
0
4
Source: New Mexico Public Education Department
*Estimated
2.000
2.000
2.000
2.000
2.000
2.000
2.000
0.322
0.322
0.317
0.308
0.298
0.276
0.268
0.267
0.265
0.256
2014*
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Debt Management Plan Overview

Bond Election Timing

Every four years
–



5
$38,000,000 bond election approved by voters on February 4, 2014 with bonds to be sold as
follows:
•
$9,500,000 to be sold on September 25, 2014
•
$9,500,000 to be sold in 2015, 2016 and 2017 or as directed by the District
–
Next bond election – February 2018 for approximately $37,000,000
–
Next two mill levy election – February 2018
Bond Maturity Schedule

Declining debt service to permit new bonds in future without tax increase

10 final maturity (20-year maximum maturity pursuant to State law)

Create capacity by retiring debt as quickly as cashflow from tax levy will permit
G/O Education Technology Lease Purchase Certificates of Participation (COPs)

Sold annually or biannually (or as directed by the District) to pay for technology equipment, software,
hardware, tech support and maintenance

Notes will be retired within two years
Bond & COP Tax Rate

Maintain a combined GOB & COP debt service tax rate at or below $14.35 level

Maintain SB9 levy @ $2.00
Bonding Capacity
BONDING CAPACITY
14-Aug-14
2014 Preliminary Assessed Valuation
6% of Assessed Valuation
Less Outstanding Debt (As of August 14, 2014)
Less General Obligation Bonds, Series 2014
Total Debt Outstanding
Debt Capacity
% Bonded to Capacity
6
$867,739,310
$52,064,359
36,205,000
9,500,000
45,705,000
$6,359,359
87.79%
Outstanding and New Issue Debt Service
Tax Year
Ending
2014
Current GOB Requirements
Principal
Interest
Total
$ 10,705,000.00 $ 1,249,458.10 $ 11,954,458.10
Total
Principal
$ 10,705,000.00
Total
Interest
$1,249,458.10
Total
Requirements
$ 11,954,458.10
2015
6,005,000.00
1,087,573.00
7,092,573.00
$ 3,350,000.00
4.000%
$ 301,888.89
9,355,000.00
1,389,461.89
10,744,461.89
2016
6,350,000.00
912,415.00
7,262,415.00
575,000.00
4.000%
246,000.00
6,925,000.00
1,158,415.00
8,083,415.00
2017
6,600,000.00
718,867.00
7,318,867.00
600,000.00
4.000%
223,000.00
7,200,000.00
941,867.00
8,141,867.00
2018
5,125,000.00
502,439.00
5,627,439.00
925,000.00
4.000%
199,000.00
6,050,000.00
701,439.00
6,751,439.00
2019
4,125,000.00
351,491.00
4,476,491.00
500,000.00
4.000%
162,000.00
4,625,000.00
513,491.00
5,138,491.00
2020
3,025,000.00
231,715.50
3,256,715.50
500,000.00
4.000%
142,000.00
3,525,000.00
373,715.50
3,898,715.50
2021
2,425,000.00
149,250.00
2,574,250.00
500,000.00
4.000%
122,000.00
2,925,000.00
271,250.00
3,196,250.00
2022
1,575,000.00
76,500.00
1,651,500.00
800,000.00
4.000%
102,000.00
2,375,000.00
178,500.00
2,553,500.00
2023
975,000.00
29,250.00
1,004,250.00
850,000.00
4.000%
70,000.00
1,825,000.00
99,250.00
1,924,250.00
900,000.00
4.000%
36,000.00
900,000.00
36,000.00
936,000.00
$ 1,603,888.89
$ 56,410,000.00
2024
TOTAL
7
G/O Bonds, Series 2014
Principal
Coupon
Interest
-
$ 46,910,000.00
$ 5,308,958.60
$ 52,218,958.60
$ 9,500,000.00
$6,912,847.49
$
63,322,847.49
Bond Sale Calendar
GADSDEN INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 16
$9,500,000 - General Obligation School Building Bonds, Series 2014
Preliminary Financing Schedule
(As of July 16, 2014)
Date
Activity
Responsibility
Thurs., Aug 14
Regular Board meeting to adopt Blanket Notice of Sale Resolution for
G/O Bonds at 5:00pm
SD, RBC, BC
Fri., Sep. 5
Rating visit with Moody’s in Dallas at 9:30 AM (Central Time)
SD, RBC
Thurs., Sep. 18
Post Preliminary Official Statement on i-dealprospectus.com
RBC
Thurs., Sep. 18
Publish Notice of Sale for G/O Bonds
BC
Thurs., Sep. 25
Public sale for Series 2014 G/O Bonds at 10:00 AM
SD, RBC, BC
Thurs., Sep. 25
Regular Board meeting to adopt final G/O Bond Resolution at 5:00pm
SD, RBC, BC
Fri., Sep. 26
Notice of Adoption for G/O Bonds published in paper of local circulation
BC
Thur., Oct. 23
Executed closing documents returned to bond counsel
SD, RBC, BC
Mon., Oct. 27
Thirty day limitation of action period expires
Wed., Oct. 29
Bond Closing
SD, RBC, BC
Working Group Key
Code
SD
Participant
Gadsden Independent School District No. 16
Role
Issuer
RBC
RBC Capital Markets
Financial Advisor
BC
Cuddy & McCarthy
Bond Counsel
Note 1: School Board meets 2nd and 4th Thursday of every month
Note 2: Publications in Las Cruces Sun News
8
Weekly Municipal Market Update
August 11, 2014
Short-Term Market
Market Overview
Yields in the short-term tax-exempt variable rate demand note (VRDN) market moved higher last week, particularly in the
second half of the week. As the demand from August coupon reinvestments waned, yields were pushed higher, although in a
controlled fashion of roughly 1 bps per day.
The SIFMA Index was reset at 0.05%, down 1bps on the week.
SIFMA vs. LIBOR
300%
250%
150%
100%
50%
SIFMA vs LIBOR
10 Source: Bloomberg
Average
07/06/2014
04/06/2014
01/06/2014
10/06/2013
07/06/2013
04/06/2013
01/06/2013
10/06/2012
07/06/2012
04/06/2012
01/06/2012
10/06/2011
07/06/2011
04/06/2011
01/06/2011
10/06/2010
07/06/2010
04/06/2010
01/06/2010
10/06/2009
07/06/2009
04/06/2009
01/06/2009
0%
10/06/2008
%
200%
Long-Term Market
Municipal GO “AAA” MMD Yield Curve Changes
Market Overview
The weakness in equity markets in the previous week spilled over to early last
week, as the S&P 500 Index was down nearly 1% through Thursday’s close.
However, news reports on Friday that Russian President Putin was pulling back,
at least temporarily, from what looked to be an imminent invasion of Ukraine,
appeared to be the spark for a sharp snapback in stocks. By Friday’s close,
equities had recovered their losses from early in the week to finish up fractionally.
The “risk off” weakness in equities early in the week provided a good backdrop for
Treasury bonds, which traded to their low yield levels for the year. Treasuries
were also able to hold on to the majority of their gains on Friday when stocks were
rallying. For the week as a whole, the yield on the 30-yr Treasury declined by
5bps to 3.23% and the yield on the 10-yr was down by 7bps to 2.42%. Readers
will recall that we started 2014 with yields of roughly 3% on the 10-yr and 4% on
the 30-yr, with many analysts predicting that yields would head higher as the Fed
began its tapering of quantitative easing (QE) purchases of Treasuries and
agency securities. Now, as we near the end of QE, we are sharply lower in yield
than we were when we began the year, even as the unemployment rate has
dropped and there are some signs that inflation may be picking up.
The muni market gained along with Treasuries last week, outperforming the
Treasury market by declining in yield more. Yields on the Municipal Market Data
(MMD) AAA GO curve decreased by between 10bps and 12bps for maturities of
10-yrs and longer, with the larger declines in the middle of the yield curve. The
outperformance for munis on the week was due to yields declining on Friday even
as Treasury yields increased slightly after the equity market recorded its large
gains on the day. It will be interesting to see if munis can maintain those gains in
the upcoming week, especially as we will see one of the heavier new issue
calendars of the summer (more than $6bn) that includes three large issues, each
of more than $800mm – Minnesota GO’s, New York City GO’s, and the Port
Authority of New York and New Jersey. This upcoming week also sees the
expiration of the short extension given to the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
(PREPA) to repay two letters of credit (LOC) totaling nearly $675mm. Those
LOCs originally were scheduled to expire on July 7th, but were extended first until
July 31st and then to August 14th. According to data from Lipper, municipal bond
mutual funds saw inflows of $17mm last week – this was a decline from the
$17mm of inflows in the preceding week. High yield funds again saw inflows of
$60mm as they continued to recover some funds lost earlier that coincided with
some of the most negative headlines coming out of Puerto Rico.
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Year
08/08/2014
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Changes
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
2 yr
3 yr
5 yr
08/08/2014
11Source: Bloomberg and Thomson Municipal Market Data
08/08/2013
7 yr
10 yr
08/08/2013
15 yr
20 yr
30 yr
Municipal Market Fund Flows
Until Fund Flows stabilize, trading in the municipal market will remain volatile
 According to data from Lipper, for the week ended August 06, 2014, weekly municipal bond funds reported $17 million in
inflows, down from previous week’s $419 million of inflows
 For the year, weekly and monthly municipal funds have recorded $11.155 billion in net inflows and have only recorded net
weekly outflows 6 times (31 reporting weeks thus far)
 For the third consecutive week, high yield municipal funds experienced modest inflows, recording $60 million in net
inflows.
Fund Flow ($ millions)
Lipper Municipal Fund Flows
$2,000
$2,000
$1,000
$1,000
$0
$0
($1,000)
($1,000)
($2,000)
($2,000)
($3,000)
($3,000)
Flow Change
($4,000)
($5,000)
Dec-10
4-Wk Moving Avg
($5,000)
Apr-11
Period ended August 06, 2014
12
($4,000)
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
7/2 7/9 7/16 7/23 7/30 8/6
Tax-Exempt Market Dynamics
Muni Bonds: 2014 Issuance versus Redemptions
Net Inflows in 24 of the First 31 Weeks of the Year
$2,000
Actual Supply
RBC Forecast Supply
Redemptions
$1,000
Fund Flow ($ millions)
$0
$30
$20
$10
($1,000)
($2,000)
($3,000)
Flow Change
($4,000)
4-Wk Moving Avg
($5,000)
Dec-10
$0
2013 & 2014 Municipal Weekly Volume
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
2,000
13 Source: Bloomberg, Lipper and Thomson Municipal Market Data
Jul-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
May-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
0
100
50
0
Aug-13
4,000
150
Aug-12
6,000
BBB Spread
200
Aug-11
8,000
A Spread
Aug-10
10,000
AA Spread
Aug-09
Basis Point Spread to AAA MMD
Competitive
Negotiated
Average
12,000
Jan-14
Credit Spreads Remain Tight for Highly Rated Issuers
250
14,000
$ millions
Par Amount ($BN)
$40
Aug-14
$50
May-14
Comparison of Minimum vs. Current vs. Maximum AAA MMD
2013 & 2014 Comparison
7.00
Historical Ten Year Comparison
7.00
Min
Min
08/08/2014
08/08/2014
Max
Max
6.00
5.00
5.00
4.00
4.00
%
%
6.00
3.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
5
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
14 Source: Thomson Municipal Market Data
Current 2013 & 2014
08/08/2014
Min Max
1.18 0.72 1.60
2.15 1.65 3.04
2.63 2.05 3.82
2.95 2.35 4.27
3.15 2.63 4.44
3.20 2.69 4.51
5
10 Year
Min Max
0.62 3.97
1.47 4.86
1.80 5.47
2.10 5.74
2.42 5.88
2.47 5.94
10
15
20
25
30
Current Municipal Market Conditions: “AAA” MMD
After closing at 3.30% the previous week, the 30-year “AAA” MMD decreased by 10 bps from
August 1 – August 8 to a current rate of 3.20%
“AAA” MMD January 1, 2007 to Present
Shift in “AAA” MMD Since July 2013
5.000%
6.000%
4.500%
5.000%
4.000%
3.500%
4.000%
3.000%
3.000%
2.500%
2.000%
1.000%
Jan-07
2.000%
1.500%
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
10 Yr
20 Yr
Jan-12
20 Year
30 Year
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan FebMar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Maximum
4.860%
5.740%
5.940%
Minimum
1.470%
2.100%
2.470%
2.950%
3.200%
July 1, 2013 to Present
2010
0.520%
2011
-1.130%
2012
-0.740%
2013
+1.330%
Source: TM3, Thomson Reuters
10, 20, and 30 year “AAA” MMD shown to represent different average lives of municipal transactions
Rates as of August 8, 2014
15
Jan-14
30 Yr
January 1, 2007 to Present
10 Year
Current
2.150%
Shift in 30-year "AAA" MMD
2007
2008
2009
0.250%
0.790% -0.900%
Jan-13
10 Year
20 Year
30 Year
Maximum
3.040%
4.270%
4.510%
Minimum
2.140%
2.990%
3.220%
Average
2.152%
3.121%
3.457%
Bond Buyer 20 General Obligation Bond Index
53 Year Historical Perspective
Bond Buyer 20 GO Index since January 1961
14.0%
% of Time in Each Range Since 1961
Bond Buyer 20 GO Bond Index
Today's Rate at 4.33%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
Yield Range
Less than 3.50%
8.76%
3.50% - 4.00%
6.44%
4.01% - 4.50%
11.12%
4.51% - 5.00%
10.80%
5.01% - 5.50%
15.06%
5.51% - 6.00%
10.48%
6.01% - 6.50%
8.12%
6.51% - 7.00%
7.40%
7.01% - 7.50%
6.69%
7.51% - 8.00%
Greater than 8.00%
Total
3.93%
11.19%
100.00%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Today’s 4.33% level is lower than 79.51% of historical rates since January 1961
16
Source: Bloomberg as of July 31, 2014 {Bond Buyer Index unavailable at time of distribution}
Weekly yields and indexes released by the Bond Buyer. Updated every Thursday at approximately 6:00pm EST. 20 Bond General Obligation
Yield with 20 year maturity, rated AA2 by Moody's Arithmetic Average of 20 bonds' yield to maturity.
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