JIPOE KULLAAW
SEMINAR FOXTROT
JIPOE STEPS
1. DEFINING THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
2. DESCRIBING THE OPNL ENVIRONMENT
3. EVALUATING THE ADVERSARY
4. DETERMINING THE ADVERSARY’S COURSES
OF ACTIONS (COAs)
DEFINING THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
•
•
•
•
•
AREA OF INTEREST
AREA OF INFLUENCE
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
JOA (based on para 6- CN Guidance dated 04 Jul 14)
SIGNIFICANT CHARACTERISTICS OF OPNL
ENVIRONMENT
• INITIAL INFORMATION COLLECTION
REQUIREMENTS
AREA OF INTEREST
CONSISTS OF:
• NOLCOM AOR:
 ILOCOS REGION
 CAGAYAN VALLEY
REGION
 CORDILLERA REGION
 CENTRAL LUZON REGION
Taklubu
Reef
South
Basin
• LACUHA ISLAND
PROVINCE
• SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF
NUVARIA (SRN)
• DEVORA ISLAND
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
CONSISTS OF:
• AOR OF NOLCOM
 ILOCOS REGION
 CAGAYAN VALLEY
REGION (INCLUDING
LACUHA ISLAND
PROVINCE)
 CORDILLERA REGION
Taklubu
Reef
South
Basin
 CENTRAL LUZON
REGION
Area of Responsibility
Particular Coverage
Land Area
(Sq Km)
Region
65,757
4
Provinces
22
Districts
49
Cities
Municipaliti
es
Barangays
Population
(Million)
27
398
9,854
19.2
AREA OF INFLUENCE
CONSISTS OF:
• NE LUZON SPODs & APODs
• LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE
• EXTENDS UP TO DEVORA
ISLAND AND NW PART OF
NUVARIA (RAMEY
AIRBASE)
Taklubu
Reef
South
Basin
PROPOSED JOA
PROPOSED JOA WILL BE:
• NE LUZON SPODs & APODs
• LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE
• PHL EEZ (200 NM) EAST,
NORTH AND SOUTH OF
LACUHA
Taklubu
Reef
• CONTAGIOUS AND
TERRITORIAL WATERS
WEST OF LACUHA ISLAND
• AIRSPACES IN LACUHA AND
NE LUZON
South
Basin
Taklubu
Reef
PROPOSED JOA
100NM
South
Basin
F-27 X 1
PROPOSED JOA
GEOPOLITICAL
SITUATION:
• MAURINII ANTONIO DE
LOPEZ INSTALLED AS
PRESIDENT OF SRN IN
2003 AFTER A BLOODY
COUP DE ETAT
• DE LOPEZ INCREASED
MILITARY SPENDING IN
NAF & RENEWED
NATIONALISM FOR THE
CLAIM OF LACUHA
• THE PHL ASKED
ASSISTANCE FROM THE
US THROUGH THE MDT
PROPOSED JOA
GEOPOLITICAL
SITUATION:
• FEB 2014 - NUVARIAN
AMBASSADOR TO PHL
WAS RECALLED
• RECALLED NUVARIANS
FROM THE PHL
• Established as a
province in 1965 RA 11175
• Capital: Sta Cruz town
• Internationally
recognized as an
island province of
Cagayan, Philippines
• Continuously claimed
by Nuvaria as part of
its territory
• 6 Municipalities:
 Mogpog, Sta Cruz, Boac,
Gasan, Buenavista, and
Torrijos
• Municipalities headed
by Mayor.
• Gov. Magtanggol
Magtapat – holds office
in Tuguegarao
• l2 Provl Board members
• 2 Congressional
Districts
• Major Political Parties:
 Nacionalista Party
 Liberal Party
 Lakas-NUCD
 Kampi
 Partido ng Masang Pil
 Kilusang Bagong
Lipunan
PNP
• No AFP units in
Lacuha Island at
present
• PPSC stationed in Sta
Cruz (350 PNP)
NOLCOM MAINLAND FORCES
5th Inf Div, PA
Camp Melchor Dela Cruz, Upi,
Gamu, Isabela
Naval Forces
Northern Luzon
501st Inf Bde, 5ID, PA
Brgy
Banguinge,
Ifugao
NSEO, Poro Point, San
Fernando, La Union
CAR
502nd Inf Bde, 5ID, PA
NBCO, Brgy San Vicente,
Sta Ana, Cagayan
Brgy Suyong, Echague, Isabela
Region I
Region II
503rd Inf Bde, 5ID, PA
Brgy Calanan,
Kalinga
TOGs, 1AD
TOG1,Loakan
Baguio City
Kiangan,
Tabuk
City,
7th Inf Div, PA
Fort Ramon Magsaysay, Palayan
City, Nueva Ecija
Airport,
Region III
TOG2,School,Cauyan
City, Isabela
TOG3, Camp Aquino, San
Miguel, Tarlac City
702nd Inf Bde, 7ID, PA
Brgy San Isidro Norte, Binmaley,
Pangasinan
703rd Inf Bde, 7ID, PA
Brgy San Juan Baño, Arayat,
Pampanga
17
JTF-NCR (Rapid Reaction
Force)
• 1 Inf Bn (Airmobile ops
capable)
• 1 Mech Inf Bn
• 1 Marine Bn (Amphi Ops
capable)
• 1 Squadron Tactical Helis
• 1 Squadron CAS A/cft
• 1 Heavy Airlift A/cft
• 1 Strategic Sealift Vessel
NUVARIAN ARMED FORCES (NAF)
Sabana Seca
Naval Base
Ramey Air Base
• MOD LOCATED IN SAN JUAN
• GHQ AND FLEET HQS LOCATED AT
SABANA SECA NAVAL BASE
• NAVAL INFANTRY HQ & BDES LOCATED
AT CAMP SANTIAGO MARINE BASE
NUVARIA
Buchanan
Air Station
• AIR FORCE HQ & 5TH & 6TH BOMBER
WINGS LOCATED AT RAMEY AIR BASE
• 1ST, 2ND, 3RD,& 4TH FIGHTER WINGS
LOCATED AT BUCHANAN AIR STATION
Fort Allen
Camp
Santiago
Marine Base
• ARMY HQ & ALL ARMY BDES LOCATED
AT FORT ALLEN
• ESTABLISHING CYBERWARFARE
CAPABILITIES
NAF FORCES THREATENING TO INVADE LACUHA ISLAND
NAF JTF
• West Nuvarian
Fleet
• 7th Air Force Group
• 2nd Naval Inf Bde
• Nuvarian SPF
• AGRICULTURE - MAIN
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (48%
EMPLOYED)
• 58% OF THE TOTAL LAND
AREA (95,925 Has.) ARE
CULTIVATED; 66% COCONUTS; 18% PALAY
• FISHING IS THE NEXT
SOURCE OF INCOME AFTER
FARMING; 75% SHIPPED
OUTSIDE THE PROVINCE
• NO SHOPPING MALLS
• NO MULTINATIONAL
COMPANIES
• NINE COMMERCIAL BANKS
• HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE 11.8% IN 2005
• POPULATION BELOW
POVERTY LEVEL: 44.8%
(2008)
• TOTAL POPULATION AS OF
2010 IS 227,828
• COMPOSITION OF TRIBES:
 70% IVATANS
 20% ILONGOTS
 10% IBANAGS
• SRN ASSERTS THAT MORE
THAN
HALF
THE
POPULATION
ARE
OF
NUVARIAN DESCENT
• AIRPORT LOCATED AT GASAN
• WATER SYTEM:
 LEVEL II SYSTEM (PIPED WATER
W/ COMMUNAL WATER POINT
IN TOWN AREAS
 LEVEL I (STAND ALONE WATER
POINTS (HAND PUMPS, WELLS)
IN RURAL AREAS
• POWER SYSTEM:
 14.35 MW W/ AVE CAPACITY
OF 200 KW
 DIESEL POWERED.
Balanacan
Port
Boac Port
Gasan Port
• PORTS LOCATED AT
BALANACAN, STA CRUZ,
GASAN, AND BOAC:
Santa Cruz Port
BERTHING AREA/S: TWO
(2) RORO RAMPS –
11.00M X 9.00M
R.C. WHARF – 83 LN.M.
DRAFT: TWO (2) RORO
RAMPS – 9.00M DEEP
R.C. WHARF – 9.00M
DEEP
• PROVINCIAL HOSPITAL
IN BOAC - 100-BED
CAPACITY
• STA CRUZ DISTRICT
HOSPITAL - 25-BED
CAPACITY
• TORRIJOS MUNICIPAL
HOSPITAL - 10-BED
CAPACITY
Provincial
Jail
• 120 -KM
CIRCUMFERENTIAL
ROAD
• 98 PERCENT - ALLWEATHER ROAD
• NEARLY 100
PERCENT ARE WELLPAVED.
• GLOBE AND SMART
• WITH DOMESTIC AND
INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES
• Adversary
 Where will the lodgement forces of NAF JTF land?
 What are the targeted military objectives of the
NAF JTF in Lacuha and in mainland NLuzon?
 What is the current locations of the NAF UAVs and
the 2 spy ships spotted in Taklubu reef?
 Are all forces of NAF JTF deployed already at Fleet
base Kailua Kona in Devora Island?
• Operational Environment
 What are the expected weather conditions in
the next two weeks?
 What is the reaction of the majority of local
populace in Lacuha for the impending Nuvarian
invasion?
 What political parties/organisations/entities in
Lacuha are supportive of the Nuvarian claim?
DESCRIBING THE IMPACT OF THE
OPERATIONAL EVIRONMENT
•
•
•
•
•
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS
OTHER STAKEHOLDERS
INFORMATIONAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
METEOROLOGICAL & OCEANAGRAPHIC (METOC)
ANALYSIS
• OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL DEDUCTIONS
• NODE LINK ANALYSIS
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
GEOGRAPHY
• Lakuha is a “heartshape” island province
of PH
• Total Land area =
95,258 Ha
• NE of the PH approx.
100 miles from
mainland Luzon
 Highest peak Mount
Malindig - 1,157 m
(3,796 ft.) ASL, located
in the southern tip of
the island
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
GEOGRAPHY
 Various cave occupies
the province (Grand
Bathala Cave & San
Isidro Cave with
complex subterranean
river
 Very advantageous for
defensive operations.
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
LAND DIMENSION
 Approx. 83% - hills and
mountains area
 17% built-up areas,
coastal, swamp, and
marshy areas
 Terrain is rocky but gentle
and undulating
 Mountainous interior home to rare and
endangered flora and
fauna.
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
LAND DIMENSION
 Hills drop steeply maximum elevation of
1,157 m (3,796 ft) ASL
 Ideal for sustained
defensive operations
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
LAND DIMENSION
LEGEND:
- HILLS AND
MOUNTAINS
- BUILT-UP AREAS
- COASTAL,
SWAMP, AND
MARSHY AREAS
- PLAIN/FLAT
- MT. MALINDIG/
HIGHEST PEAK
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
LAND DIMENSION
LEGEND:
- RESTRICTED TERRAIN
- SEVERELY RESTRICTED
TERRAIN
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
MARITIME DOMAIN
• Lacuha is home to
myriad of corals
and sea creatures
• Sea condition is
calm especially
during summer and
SE monsoon.
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
MARITIME DIMENSION
• SPODS







BALANACAN – LSV
CAWIT – LSV
LAYLAY - PG
BUYABOD - PG
GASAN - PG
STA CRUZ – LSV
TORRIJOS – PG
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
AIR AND SPACE DOMAIN
• APODS
 MASIGA – C130
CAPABLE
 TAPIAN – C130
CAPABLE
 GASAN- C130
CAPABLE
PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS
AIR AND SPACE DIMENSION
ADIZ
ADIZ
ADIZ
HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS
 POPULATION - 227,000
 ETHNIC COMPOSITION: 70% IVATANS; 20%
ILONGOTS; &10% IBANAGS - PURELY
FILIPINO AND WILL RESIST NUV INVASION
 POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LEVEL
:44.8%
 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE :11.8%
 HIGH POVERTY INCIDENCE AND
UNEMPLOYMENT COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ENEMY ISA
HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS
 PEACE-LOVING PEOPLE (ONLY 350 PNP
PERSONNEL MAINTAIN PEACE AND ORDER)
 PEOPLE OF LACUHA ARE NOTABLY
SERIOUS IN THEIR EXERCISE OF SUFFRAGE
INDICATING STRONG PATRIOTIC SENSE
OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS
 UN: DOES NOT SUPPORT THE NUVARIAN CLAIM
OVER LACUHA ISLAND- THIS COULD MAKE THE
NUVARIAN LEADERSHIP RESORT TO DESPERATE
MEASURES.
 US: SUPPORTS THE DIPLOMATIC AND PEACEFUL
RESOLUTION OF THE TERRITORIAL DISPUTE - THIS
COULD MEAN NON-INTERVENTION BY THE US IN
THE EVENT OF A MILITARY ACTION BY NUV IN
LACUHA.
OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS
 NUVARIAN TOURISTS AND INVESTORS IN THE PHWILL LIKELY FLEE AND WILL PULL OUT THEIR
PORTFOLIOS
 FILIPINO WORKFORCE AT NUV FACTORIES AND
HOUSEHOLDS: PH WILL HAVE TO PLAN FOR
CONTINGENCY EVACUATION
OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS
 OIL EXPLORATION INDUSTRY- SITUATION MAY
CAUSE INVESTMENT JITTERY AND MAY PROPEL OIL
PRICES TO SHOOT UP
 INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY (IC)- FIRM
COLLECTIVE POSTURE BY THE IC UNDER DURESS
OF ECONOMIC OR MILITARY SANCTIONS COULD BE
A DETERRENT TO HOSTILE ACTIONS
OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS
 TOURIST/HOTEL INDUSTRY- WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
FEEL THE INDIRECT BRUNT OF THE CONFLICT
WITH LOWER REVENUES
 PNP, COASTGUARD AND PARA-MILITARY FORCESMAY BE DEPLOYED AND WILL TAKE A SECONDARY
SUPPORT ROLE TO THE AFP EFFORTS.
INFORMATION TERRAIN ANALYSIS
 DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES IS
PROVIDED BY GLOBE AND SMART
 INTERNET ALLOWS FOR INTERCONNECTIVITY AND
ACCESS TO NON-MILITARY OPEN SOURCE
SYSTEMS AND IS THE PRIMARY MODE OF
DELIVERY OF DATA INFORMATION
 CYBERWARFARE CAPABILITIES OF BOTH FORCES
COULD INFLUENCE THE INFORMATION
ENVIRONMENT

NOLCOM CEIS CAPABILITY MAY NOT WORK WELL IN
LACUHA ISLAND
METOC ANALYSIS
WEATHER / CLIMATE
•
Type III Climate – rainfall more or less evenly distributed
through out the year/no clear boundary between dry and wet
•
Double during May – October (Monsoon Season)
•
Temperature bet 27°C to 32°C
•
Humidity av e= 78% year round
•
Ave rainfall 2,034.6 mm
•
Driest period: January – April
•
Annual precipitation: 910 mm (36in)
•
Coastal region: 101-381 mm
•
Higher ground: 508 mm
METOC ANALYSIS
WEATHER / CLIMATE
CONDITION
North-East Monsoon
(Amihan)
South-West Monsoon
(Habagat)
Favorable for Sea Travel
PERIOD
November - April
July - October
May - June
METOC ANALYSIS
CLIMATOLOGICAL EFFECTS ON MILITARY OPERATIONS
Mission
Area
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
AIR
MARITIME
GROUND
AMPH
UNRESTRICTED
MODERATE
RESTRICTION
SEVERE
RESTRICTION
OCT
NOV
DEC
EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs:
SITUATION
EFFECT ON ENEMY COAS
EFFECT ON FF COAS
TROPICAL RAINFORESTS
PROVIDES LIFE SUPPORT
SYSTEM (COVER, WATER,
AND FOOD.)
PROVIDES LIFE SUPPORT
SYSTEM, SUPPORT OF
COMMUNITIES.
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS
MOBILITY HAMPERED BY
RESTRICTIVE AND
SEVERELY RESTRICTIVE
TERRAINS.
MOBILITY HAMPERED BY
RESTRICTIVE AND SEVERELY
RESTRICTIVE TERRAINS
LIMITS TROOP MOVEMENT.
LIMITS TROOP MOVEMENT.
CAUSES INTERFERENCES
TO LOS COMMU EQIPT
INTERFERENCES TO LOS
COMMU EQUIPT
CONCENTRATION OF DRRO
DURING TYPHOON (LANDSLIDE
AND FLASHFLOODS) AND
FOREST FIRES DURING DRY
SEASON
EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs:
SITUATION
EFFECT ON ENEMY
COAS
EFFECT ON FF COAS
GENERALLY
SURROUNDED BY
COASTLINE
ADVANTAGEOUS TO
AMPHIBIOUS OPNS
ADVANTAGEOUS TO
AMPHIBIOUS LANDINGS
OBSTACLE POSITIONS
HAMPER MOBILITY
OBSTACLE POSITIONS
HAMPER MOBILITY
CONSIDERATION FOR
DRRO EFFORT DURING
TYPHOON.
THICK VEGETATION
PROVIDES COVER AND
CONCEALMENT.
PROVIDES COVER AND
CONCEALMENT.
DIFFICULT FOR
MANEUVER OF ARMOR
ASSETS AND CAS OPS.
DIFFICULT FOR
MANEUVER OF ARMOR
ASSETS AND CAS OPS.
EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs:
SITUATION
EFFECT ON ENEMY COAS
EFFECT ON FF COAS
SOUTH BASIN
SHELTERING AREA FOR
SEA VESSELS
SHELTERING AREA
FOR SEA VESSELS
TAKLUBU REEF
HAZARDOUS TO
AMPHIBIOUS LANDINGS
HAZARDOUS TO
AMPHIBIOUS LANDING
PMESII NODE-LINK
NETWORK ANALYSIS
(Adversary)
POLITICAL
4
5
2
1
3
6
7
8
LEGEND:
1 – PRESIDENT
2 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTRY
3 - EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS
4 - ULTIMATE DIPLOMATIC
PROTEST (MAR 2012)
5 - PURSUING TERRITORIAL CLAIMS
IN INTERNATIONAL FORA
6 - SRN EMBASSY TO ASEAN
7 - SRN EMBASSY TO UN
8 - WITHRAWAL OF SRN AMB TO PH
NODE ANALYSIS
NUVARIA
MILITARY
2
1
11
11
4
3
5
9
13
8
6
7
10
12
LEGEND:
1 – MINISTRY OF DEFENSE
2 - NUVARIA CHIEF OF STAFF/
GHQ
3 - NUVARIAN NAVY
4 - NUVARIAN AIR FORCE
5 - NUVARIAN ARMY
6 - WEST NUVARIAN FLEET
7 - 2ND NAVAL INF BDE, NAF
8 - 7TH AIR FORCE GROUP, NAF
9 - NUVARIAN SPF
10 - NUVARIAN JTF
11 - CYBER WARFARE SYSTEM
CAPABILITY
12 - MILITARY EXERCISE
FURIOUS OWL IN DEVORA
13 – ISR ACTIVITIES IN WESTERN
LUZON AND NE LUZON
NODE ANALYSIS
NUVARIA
ECONOMIC
1
2
4
3
6
5
7
LEGEND:
1 – ECONOMIC & TRADE
MINISTRY
2 - STRINGENT CUSTOMS
INSPECTIONS
3 - OIL AND NATURAL GAS
EXPLORATION PLANS
4 - INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
5 - AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
6 - FREEZE IN HIRING OF
FILIPINO LABORERS
7 - FISHING IN TAKLUBU REEF
AND LACUHA AREA
NODE ANALYSIS
NUVARIA
SOCIAL
2
LEGEND:
1 – CITIZENS OF NUVARIA
2 - STRONG SENSE NATIONALISM
3 - ISLAMIC RELIGION
1
3
NODE ANALYSIS
NUVARIA
INFORMATIONAL
4
1
2
3
LEGEND:
1 – MINISTRY OF INFORMATION
2 - STATE CONTROLLED MEDIA
3 - STRATEGIC
COMMUNICATIONS
4 - TELECOMMUNICATIONS
COMPANIES AND FACILITIES
NODE ANALYSIS
NUVARIA
INFRASTRUCTURE
LEGEND:
1 – POWER GENERATION &
DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES
2 - SPODS
3 - APODS
4 - ROADNETS
1
2
3
4
NODE ANALYSIS
NUVARIA
4
2
1
5
2
3
3
1
4
3
6
1
7
2
1
1
8
2
11
11
4
3
4
3
5
9
6
7
2
10
12
5
13
8
6
2
3
1
4
7
RECAPITULATION
QUICK LOOK TABLE
SYSTEM
POLITICAL
MILITARY
ECONOMIC
NODES (SUB-SYSTEMS)
PRESIDENT
FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTRY
EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS
ULTIMATE DIPLOMATIC
PROTEST (MAR 2012)
PURSUING TERRITORIAL CLAIMS
IN INTERNATIONAL FORA
SRN EMBASSY TO ASEAN
SRN EMBASSY TO UN
WITHRAWAL OF SRN AMB TO PH
MINISTRY OF DEFENSE, NUVARIA CHIEF OF STAFF/ GHQ, NUVARIAN NAVY
NUVARIAN AIR FORCE, NUVARIAN ARMY, WEST NUVARIAN FLEET
2ND NAVAL INF BDE, NAF; 7TH AIR FORCE GROUP, NAF; NUVARIAN SPF
NUVARIAN JTF, CYBER WARFARE SYSTEM CAPABILITY, MILITARY EXERCISE
FURIOUS OWL IN DEVORA, ISR ACTIVITIES IN WESTERN LUZON AND NE
LUZON
ECONOMIC & TRADE MINISTRY , STRINGENT CUSTOMS INSPECTIONS, OIL
AND NATURAL GAS EXPLORATION PLANS, INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, FREEZE IN HIRING OF FILIPINO LABORERS, FISHING
IN TAKLUBU REEF AND LACUHA AREA
RECAPITULATION
QUICK LOOK TABLE
SYSTEM
SOCIAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
INFORMATION
NODES (SUB-SYSTEMS)
CITIZENS OF NUVARIA , STRONG SENSE NATIONALISM , ISLAMIC RELIGION
POWER GENERATION & DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES, SPODS, APODS,
ROADNETS
MINISTRY OF INFORMATION, STATE CONTROLLED MEDIA, STRATEGIC
COMMUNICATIONS, TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES AND
FACILITIES
• THE THREAT (COMPOSITION,
DISPOSITION, TACTICS, TRAINING,
LOGISTICS, OP
EFFECTIVENESS,
INTEL, COMMUNICATIONS, SUPPORT)
• THREAT LEADERSHIP & GOALS
• PREFERRED TACTICS & OPTIONS
• THREAT DOCTRINE & MODELS
(GRAPHICS)
• ASSESSED HIGH VALUE TARGETS (HVT) &
HIGH PAYOFF TARGETS (HPT)
• OVERALL THREAT CAPABILITIES
MOD
XXXX
XX
Chief
Armed
Forces
General
Staff
XXX
XXX
XXX
Fleet
Air
Forces
Army
XXX
Fleet
X
LSD
Flotilla
X
Polnocny
Flotilla
XX
XX
Surface
Forces
Naval
Infantry
X
Destroyer
Flotilla
X
X
Frigate
Flotilla
Support
Flotilla
X
1
X
X
2
3
* Key ship types in the Nuvarian flotillas are the Polnocny-class landing ship , Whidbey Island –
class LSD, Oliver Perry-class frigate, Kashin-class destroyer, and Durance-class oiler
** Key combat systems in the naval infantry brigades are the AMX-10RC tank, M1985 tank, BTR80 APC, BTR-D APC, BMD-2 APC, 2S1 Howitzer, 2S23 Howitzer, and 122 mm MRL
Naval Infantry Brigade Organization
X
II
BTR-80
II
BMD-2
II
II
I
AMX-10RC,
M1985
AT-5B, AT13, BMP-2M,
BTR-D
BRDM-2,
M1985
II
I
II
I
II
II
II
2S1, 2S3
2S6
122mm
I
II
SPT
XXX
Air
Forces
X
1
Fighter
Wing
(Su-27)
X
X
2
Fighter
Wing
3
Fighter
Wing
(Su-27) (Mirage 2000)
X
X
4
Fighter
Wing
5
Ground
Attack
(Mirage 2000) (Su-24MK)
X
X
6
Ground
Attack
(Su-24MK)
7
Transport
Wing
(An-12/C-130)
* Each wing is comprised of three aircraft squadrons and a support squadron.
** The fighter wings and ground attack wing each have 81 combat aircraft. The
transport wing has 45 aircraft.
XXX
Army
X
1/2
(AMX-10P IFV,
Chieftan Tk,
122/155mm How,
AT-13 ATGM, W87
AGL)
X
3
(W-87 AGL,
84mm Gustaf
RR, AT-13 ATGM,
100mm ATG,
BRDM-2, Stinger
SAM)
4
(W-87 AGL,
84mm Gustaf
RR, AT-13 ATGM,
100mm ATG,
BRDM-2, Stinger
SAM)
X
X
X
7
5/6
SPF
(BMD-2 IFV,
BTR-D APC,
84mm Gustaf RR,
AT-5B ATGM, SA18 SAM)
(RPG-7, SA-18
SAM)
XXX
Chief
Armed
Forces
XX
JTF
XX
X
II
Maritime
Component
Air
Component
SOF
Component
XX
Maritime
Component
XX
Strike
Group
- 4 x LSD landing ships
- 4 x Polnocny landing ships
- 1 x Oliver Perry Frigate
- 1 x Kashin Destroyer
- 1 x Durance Oiler
X
1
- 3 x naval infantry battalions
- 2 x airborne infantry battalions
- 1 x light tank battalion
- 1 x armored cavalry company
- 1 x MRL battalion
- 1 x air defense battalion
- Combat support/service support
X
2
II
II
BTR-80
II
II
II
I
AMX-10RC
BRDM-2,
M1985
II
I
II
I
122mm
I
II
SPT
* Organic artillery and antitank battalions will not deploy, airborne battalions will deploy without
BMD-1 vehicles, and tank battalion will deploy without M1985 tanks due to lift constraints.
Brigade augmented with one naval infantry battalion and one airborne infantry battalion (Army)
X
Air
Component
II
11
Ground
Attack
27 x Su-24
(FENCER)
ground
attack aircraft
II
21
Fighter
27 x Su-27
(FLANKER)
fighter aircraft
II
31
Transport
15 x An-12
(CUB)
transport
aircraft
* The FENCER and FLANKER squadrons are divided into three flights of 9
aircraft each. The CUB squadron is divided into three flights of 5 aircraft each.
II
SPF
I
I
B
A
SPF
I
C
SPF
SPF
* Each Special Purpose Forces (SPF) company can field up to 10 SPF teams. All
teams are airborne capable.
** Key weapons systems are the SA-18 SAM, RPG-7V ATGL, and AK-47 rifle.
NUVARIAN AIR FORCE
Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker
Mirage 2000
Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer
NUVARIAN NAVY
Kashin Class Destroyer
Polnocny Class Medium Landing Ship
Oliver Hazard Perry Class Frigate
NUVARIAN ARMY
AMX 10
BTR D Armored Personnel Carrier (APC)
BMD 2 Infantry Fighting Vehicle
NUVARIAN ARMY
122mm D 30 Towed Howitzer
84mm Carl Gustav Recoilless Rifle
SA-18 (Igla) Man-Portable Surface- to-Air
Missile (SAM)
DISPOSITION OF NUVARIAN FORCE
Ramey Air
Base
Sabana
Seca
Naval Buchan
Base
an
Air
Station
Camp
Santiago
Marine Base
Fort
Allen
MARINES
ENEMY HQS
BOMBER
AIRFORCE
ARMY
FIGHTER
NAVY
BRIGADES
NAVAL SHIPS
Fleet HQ and
all naval ship
units
Chief of Armed
Forces and
General Staff
Ministry of Defense
(MOD) located in San
Juan
Sabana
Seca
Naval
Base
NUVARIA
Fort
Allen
Camp
Santiago
Marine Base
Naval infantry HQ and
Brigades
1st, 2nd, 3rd
and 4th Fighter
Wing
Air Forces HQ &
the
5th & 6th Bomber
Wings Ramey Air
Base
NUVARIA
Buchan
an
Air
Station
Fort
Allen
Army HQ and all Army
Brigades
• PREPONDERANCE OF NUVARIAN FORCES IS THE
NUVARIAN FLEET (NAVAL SHIPS AND NAVAL
INFANTRY)
 CORRESPONDS TO THE MARITIME NATURE OF
NUVARIA
•
NUVARIAN DOCTRINE:
 EXECUTION OF OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS AT NIGHT
TO MAXIMIZE COVER, STEALTH, AND THE
ELEMENT OF SURPRISE
• LARGE-SCALE JOINT EXERCISE FOCUSED ON
NIGHT AMPHIBIOUS AND AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS
• “RAGING BULL”-(2011)-NE OF PHIL SEA
INVOLVING FLEET, NAVAL INFANTRY BRIGADE,
AIR WING, AND ARMY AIRBORNE BRIGADE
• AUGUST 2012: EXERCISE FOCUSED ON
CAPABILITIES FOR NIGHT AMPHIBIOUS AND
HELIBORNE OPS
• 21 JUNE 2014: “FURIOUS OWL” CONDUCTED
NEAR THE BORDER OF NPS, 100 MI NORTH OF
LACUHA
• IMPROVED JOINT CAPABILITIES OF THE NAF
 INTEROPERABILITY OF NAVAL SHIP UNITS AND NAVAL
INFANTRY IS VERY GOOD; BOTH FALL UNDER THE
SAME FLEET COMMAND
 INTEGRATION OF THE AIR FORCES AND ARMY INTO
JOINT OPERATIONS NOT AS WELL DEVELOPED, BUT
IS IMPROVING
 NAF INCORPORATED U.S. DOCTRINE FOR JOINT
EXPEDITIONARY WARFARE; FORCES ARE ALIGNED
UNDER A JOINT TASK FORCE (JTF) THAT IS CREATED
FOR A SPECIFIC MISSION OR CAMPAIGN
• NAF HAS DEVELOPED A LIMITED POWER
PROJECTION CAPABILITY, WITH A STRATEGIC REACH
OF ROUGHLY 500 MILES (804 KM)
 NUVARIAN FLEET HAS ACHIEVED A “BLUE WATER”
CAPABILITY, BY ADDING OILERS TO THE FLEET
 NUVARIAN AIR FORCE DOES NOT HAVE AN AIR-TO-AIR
REFUELING CAPABILITY
 HIGH PROBABILITY OF NAF THREATENING PH INTEREST
(DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY)
 NAF WILL LAUNCH SERIES OF ATTACKS IN MAINLAND
PHILIPPINES SHOULD THE PH GOVERNMENT DISAGREE TO
CEDE LACUHA IS
 POSSIBLE INVASION OF LACUHA ISLAND
 STRIKE VITAL INSTALLATIONS
 NAF INCREASED THEIR LEVEL OF AIR AND MARITIME
PATROL ACTIVITY NEAR THE SOUTH BASIN
 MARCH 2014: UAVS WERE SPOTTED IN WESTERN AND
NORTHEAST LUZON
 2 LARGE FISHING VESSELS, BELIEVED TO BE SPY SHIPS,
SPOTTED AROUND LACUHA IN THE PAST 2 MONTHS;
THESE ARE NOW ANCHORED IN TAKLUBU REEF
• IN THE LAST SIX YEARS, DEFENSE BUDGET
HAS CONTINUOUSLY INCREASED FROM 1.1%
TO 6.5% TO SUSTAIN MODERNIZATION OF
ITS MILITARY
• DE LOPEZ’S ADMINISTRATION OPENLY
DECLARED ITS RESOLUTE INTENTION TO ANNEX
LACUHA ISLAND
• NEGOTIATE THE TURN-OVER OF LACUHA ISLAND
TO NUVARIA, OTHERWISE “ALL OPTIONS ARE ON
THE TABLE” FOR SRN
• NIGHT AMPHIBIOUS AND AIRMOBILE
OPERATIONS
• JOINT OPERATIONS INVOLVING NUVARIAN
FLEET, NAVAL INFANTRY BDE, AIR WING, AND
ARMY AIRBORNE BDE
• HELIBORNE OPERATIONS
DOCTRINAL TEMPLATE
AIR
FORCE
RAIDERS
FLEET
GROUND
FORCES
COG ANALYSIS (ENEMY)
CENTER OF GRAVITY (STRATEGIC)
CRITICAL CAPABILITIES
PRESIDENT DE LOPEZ, SOCIALIST
REPUBLIC OF NUVARIA
• CONDUCT AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS
• CONDUCT AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS
• NIGHT FIGHTING
CRITICAL REQUIREMENTS
CRITICAL VULNERABILITIES
• NAVAL TRANSPORT SHIPS
• AIR TRANSPORT FOR AIRBORNE
TROOPS
• AIR COVER
• INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE &
RECONNAISANCE (ISR)
• LOGISTICS SUPPORT FOR
INVASION FORCE
• SLOCS
ENDSTATE: OCCUPATION OF LACUHA ISLAND
COG ANALYSIS (ENEMY)
CENTER OF GRAVITY (OPN’L)
CRITICAL CAPABILITIES
JOINT TASK FORCE, NUVARIAN
ARMED FORCES
• CONDUCT AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS
• CONDUCT AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS
• NIGHT FIGHTING
CRITICAL REQUIREMENTS
CRITICAL VULNERABILITIES
• NAVAL TRANSPORT SHIPS
• AIR TRANSPORT FOR AIRBORNE
TROOPS
• AIR COVER
• INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE &
RECONNAISANCE (ISR)
• LOGISTICS SUPPORT FOR
INVASION FORCE
• SLOCS
ENDSTATE: OCCUPATION OF LACUHA ISLAND
SITUATION
• IN 1993, NUVARIA (NUV) HAD OPENLY
EXPRESSED OPPOSITION TO THE PH’S
ADMINISTRATION OF LACUHA ISLAND.
• PH LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES (PHIL COAST
GUARD, PNP AND BFAR) HAVE REGULATED THE
FISHING ACTIVITIES AND INSTITUTED STRICT
CAMPAIGN AGAINST ILLEGAL FISHING AND
POACHING IN THE AREA.
SITUATION
• DIPLOMATIC AND TRADING RELATIONS BETWEEN THE
TWO NATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN CORDIAL - NUVARIAN
TERRITORIAL CLAIM OVER LACUHA ISLAND.
• NUVARIAN ARMED FORCES (NAF) MAY THREATEN PH
INTERESTS EITHER DIRECTLY (BY THE THREAT OF
INCURSIONS TO SOVEREIGNTY) OR INDIRECTLY (BY
INTERFERING WITH PH TRADE ROUTES)
• SRN IMPLIED AN INTENT THAT SHOULD THE PH
GOVERNMENT BE DEFIANT TO ITS REQUEST TO CEDE
LACUHA ISLAND, NAF WILL LAUNCH SERIES OF ATTACKS
IN MAINLAND PHILIPPINES.
Events
• In 2011, a large scale joint
exercise is being conducted
at the Devora Island,
focusing on night
amphibious and airmobile
operations
• In August 2012, another
exercise was conducted
simulating the seizure of an
island focusing on precision
and enhancement of
capabilities for night
amphibious and heliborne
operations
Events
• NAF mobilized 2 naval
infantry brigades and Army
airborne battalions to
Devora Island in
preparation for another
joint exercise
• In August 2013, UAVs were
spotted in two different
areas, one in western
Luzon and the other in
Northeast Luzon
Events
• 2 large fishing vessels,
believed to be a spy ship
were spotted in various
locations around Lacuha
Island in the past 2 months
• On 21 September 2013,
SRN announces a major
military exercise
codenamed “Furious Owl”
near the border in the
Northern Philippine Sea
Decision Support
• DP: NAF conducts
major military
exercise
codenamed
“Furious Owl” near
the border in the
Northern
Philippine Sea
NAI: Taklubu reef
TAKLUBU REEF
• Socialist Republic of Nuvaria (SRN) through its
NAF will invade Lacuha Island by force in case the
GPH will not cede the island to them by
diplomatic means
• To establish SRN political government and declare
Lacuha Island as one of the provinces of SRN as
NAF will force LGEs to pledge allegiance to SRN or
through a temporary military junta
• Invasion of Lacuha Island without resistance will
make a political statement that SRN is the rightful
claimant nation of said territory
• COA 1 – NAF to invade Lacuha Island by surprise
utilizing massive amphibious forces seizing vital
installations and key terrains of the island and
pushing inward aided by air and naval fires
• COA 2 – NAF to invade Lacuha Island utilizing
airborne attack by Special Purpose Forces (SPF)
targeting the swift grab of power over local
governance and establish an active defense
within the seats of government
• COA 3 – NAF to invade Lacuha Island and a
portion of Northern Luzon without resistance
from the AFP through rapid deployment of
maritime invasion forces
FACTORS
COA 1
COA 2
COA 3
FEASABILITY
2
1
3
ACCEPTABILITY
2
1
3
SUSTAINABILITY
2
1
3
UNIQUENESS
2
1
3
CONSISTENCY
2
1
3
10 (2)
5 (1)
15 (3)
TOTAL
1 – MOST PRIORITY
4 – LEAST PRIORITY
COA 2
NAF to invade Lacuha
Island
utilizing
airborne attack by
Special Purpose Forces
(SPF) targeting the
swift grab of power
over local governance
and establish an active
defense within the
seats of government
LACUHA ISLAND
COA 2
Endstate – Swift overthrow of
GPH Governance in Lacuha Island
through the establishment of a
“puppet/hostage government”
or a temporary NAF military
junta. Communication of Lacuha
Province to mainland Philippines/
national government totally cutoff thereby gaining the initiative
that will allow the deployment of
its follow-on amphibious forces
supported by air and naval
assets.
LACUHA ISLAND
COA 2
I&W – Identify LGEs and
other
important
personalities vulnerabilities
for further exploitation,
vital
installations
for
sabotage
operations,
avenues/routes for land
forces and key terrains.
LACUHA ISLAND
COA 3
NAF will invade both
Lacuha Island and a
portion of Northern
Luzon which will render
the AFP divided into two
(2) theatre of war.
NAF
JTF-LI
LACUHA ISLAND
COA 3
Endstate – Invaded Lacuha
Island without resistance
from AFP and established an
active defense in two fronts
and ensure normalcy in the
area through influencing the
LGE/GAs/NGOs/POs to coopt with SRN by means of a
combined
diplomatic
pressures
&
terroristic
actions.
NAF
JTF-LI
LACUHA ISLAND
COA 3
I&W – Intensify measures to
identify
and
neutralize
resistance movements, ensure
the sustained flow of logistical
requirements of NAF, facilitate
SRN political governance of the
occupied island, prevent UN
sanctions
by
political
means/bargaining
NAF
JTF-LI
LACUHA ISLAND
Priority intelligence requirements (PIR)
Adversary:
• What is the current NAF composition and disposition?
• What are the nearest available NAF units that can reinforce the
enemy in the AO?
• Who are the Nuvarian nationals in Lacuha Island and their
activities?
• Who are the NAF commanders/sympathizers that are
vulnerable to friendly force recruitment?
• What is the current composition and disposition of
sympathizers of the SRN?
• Who are among the political leaders in the area that are
supportive of the SRN? Why are they supportive of the SRN?
PIR Adversary (Continued):
• What is the likely start date of the proposed NAF EX?
• What specific Vital Installations (VI) are the
Nuvarians likely to target?
• When will the Nuvarians target these assets?
• Will the Nuvarians target VI on the mainland?
• What is the current NTM of the Nuvarian Naval
Infantry Units?
• What NAF assets have been stockpiled at Fleet base
Kailua Kona?
Operational Environment:
• What are the expected weather conditions during
the next month?
• What is the likely reaction of Lacuhan locals to any
AFP element arriving in Lacuha?
• What size military force can Lacuha accommodate?
• Who are the key PNP and PPSC points of contact in
Lacuha?
• What are the exact locations of the coral reefs in
vicinity of Lacuha?
Friendly force information requirements (FFIR)
• What is the status/location of all intelligence
capabilities in the AO?
• How will the weather impact ISR capabilities?
• What is the status of the HUMINT source network?
• Where are the current location and frequented places
of LGEs?
• Who are the personnel susceptible to exploitation by
NAF covert forces?
• What’s the most vulnerable police
stations/detachments in the AO.