Advanced indicators
Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE
24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica
Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata
Outline
1. Energy efficiency index
2. Energy savings
3. Decomposition of power sector consumption
How energy efficiency progress is measured in ODYSSEE?
• Progress in energy efficiency for final consumers is measured in ODYSSEE
through an indicator, called ODEX, that is as much as possible cleaned from
structural changes or other factors that have nothing to do with energy
efficiency (e.g. increase in comfort or in equipment ownership, structural
changes in industry, climate variations from one year to the other)
• For each end-use sector (industry, transport, households, services), energy
efficiency progress is measured at a detailed level by sub-sector (or enduse, or mode of transport), through reduction in specific energy
consumption measured in physical units, to get an energy efficiency index
by sector.
• Energy efficiency progress is then evaluated at the level of the whole
economy by weighting energy efficiency progress of each end-use sector,
on the basis of their share in the final energy consumption.
 ODEX (“ODYSSEE energy efficiency index”)
3
How ODEX is calculated for each sector?
• ODEX by sector is calculated from unit consumption trends by sub –
sector (or end-use or mode of transport )
o By aggregation of unit consumption indices by sub-sector in one
index for the sector on the basis of the current weight of each
sub-sector in the sector’s energy consumption;
o Unit consumption by sub-sector are expressed in different
physical units so as to be as close as possible to energy efficiency
evaluation : toe/ m2, toe/employee, kWh/appliance, toe/ton,
litre/100km,…
• ODEX is calculated on the basis of up to 35 sub- sectors (up to 7
modes in transport, 9 end-uses for households, 14 branches in
industry and 5 sub-sectors in services.
4
ODEX indicators: case of EU averaage
Energy efficiency index (ODEX) for final consumers (EU-27)
100

98
96

94
100=2000
92

90
88

86
84
82
ODEX= 88 in 2010  12% energy
efficiency improvement between
2000 and 2010 .
Regular and larger gains for
households (1.6%/year).
No progress for industry since the
beginning of the economic crisis
(1.2%/year until 2007)
Lower progress for transport
(0.9%/year), due to negative
savings for the transport of goods
since the economic crisis.
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Industry
Transport
Households (technical)
Total
ESD
ODEX calculated as a 3 years moving average to avoid short term fluctuations (imperfect climatic corrections,
behavioural factors, business cycles). Services not included due to the difficulty of measuring energy savings .
5
Rate of annual energy efficiency progress based on ODEX
• Energy efficiency improvement from ODEX can also be expressed in %/year
to assess the average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements;
• 12% energy efficiency improvement between 2000 and 2010 at EU level
means an average rate of improvement of 1.2%/year;
Energy efficiency improvement for final consumers in EU countries
3.0
2000-2010
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Poland
Bulgaria
Latvia
Romania
Slovenia
Norway
Netherlands
France
UK
Germany
Belgium
Cyprus
Hungary
Ireland
EU
Denmark
Croatia
Sweden
Italy
Austria
Finland
Estonia
Czech Rep.
Slovakia
Greece
Spain
Luxembourg
Portugal
%/year
2.5
6
Energy efficiency index for industry
Evaluation carried out at the level of up to 14 branches, of which 3
energy intensive branches: steel, cement and pulp & paper.
For each branch energy efficiency improvement is measured from the
decrease of the specific energy consumption expressed in terms of
energy used
per ton produced for energy intensive products (steel, cement,
glass and paper)
 per unit of production index for the other branches
Trends in ODEX in industry (EU-27)
Around 25% progress in energy efficiency in industry in the EU-27 since 1990;
slow progression since 1998 (1,4 %/year compared to 2.2%/year from 1990 to
1998)
Not all branches are shown for sake of clarity
Energy efficiency index: principle of calculation:
1 Calculation of indices by branch and weighting
1990
1991
1992
1995
8.5
(100)
8.3
(98)
8.2
(96)
8.2
(96)
0.30
(100)
0.29
(97)
0.26
(87)
0.25
(83)
20
(50)
20
(48)
20
(44)
22
(46)
20
(50)
22
(52)
25
(56)
26
(54)
Energy ratios
Chemicals (toe/100)
(index)
Steel (toe/tonne)
(index)
Energy consumption
Chemicals (Mtoe)
(%)
Steel (Mtoe)
(%)
(weight)
Energy efficiency index: principle of calculation:
2 Calculation of sector index (year t-1 as reference)
1990
1991
1992
1993
Chemicals
100
98
96
96
Steel
100
97
87
83
Total
100
97,4
90,9
88,6
Energy efficiency
index
IE91 = IE1990 x (98 x 0.48 + 97 x 0.52) = 97,4
IE92 = IE1991 x (96/98 x 0.44 + 87/97 x 0.56) = 90.9
IE93 = IE1990 x (96/96 x 0.46 + 83/87 x 0.54) = 88,6
 gains of 11.4% in 1993 compared to 1990
Energy efficiency index for households
Calculated on 8 end-uses/appliances : heating, water heating, cooking, 5
large appliances (refrigerators, freezers, washing machine ,
dishwashers and TV)
Indicators used:
Heating: unit consumption per m2 at normal climate (toe/m2) (per
dwelling equivalent with central heating)
Water heating: unit consumption per dwelling with water heating
Cooking: unit consumption per dwelling
Large elec. appliances: specific consumption per appliance (kWh/year)
Energy efficiency progress for households in the EU-27
Energy efficiency improved by 20% over the period 2000-2012, ie by 1.9%/year;
Since 1990 the improvement reaches 31% (or about 1.6%/year).
The efficiency improvement for heating reaches 20% since 2000 and 14% for large
electrical appliances
100
95
90
85
80
75
Large elec appliances
Heating
70
Efficiency index
Water heating
ODEX is an index weighting the energy efficiency progress for 8 end-uses/appliances.
12
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1990
1991
Cooking
65
Outline
1. ODEX
2. Energy savings
3. Decomposition of of power sector consumption
How to measure energy savings
Two methods that are equivalent can be used to calculate energy savings by
sector (in ktoe or GWh):
Sum the energy savings for each sub-sector (or end-use);
Direct calculation at sector level with ODEX indicator
Calculation of energy savings by end-use or sub-sector :
example of refrigerators
The savings are given by the reduction in the specific consumption, in kWh/year for
refrigerators or liters/100 km for cars.
 A reduction of the average specific consumption of the refrigerator 'stock from 400
to 300 kWh per year in a country with 2 million of refrigerators will result in total
electricity savings equal to 100 GWh in 2007 compared to 1990.
•Energy savings in 2007 (compared
to 1990) = 100 GWh ((400-300)*1 )
assuming a stock of 1 M refrigerators in
2007
•Rate of energy savings: 25%
(=100/400)
15
Calculation of energy savings by sub-sector: case of cement
industry
 Definition : at the level of an industrial branch i, energy savings are calculated
from the variation of the consumption Ei due to a reduction in the specific
energy consumption Ei/Qi between year t and a base year, as :
Qt*(Eit/Qit-Eio/Qio)
(Qi= output)
 Example: case of energy savings in cement production between 1990 and 2010
– 1990 : Consumption : 0.85 Mtoe; production 10 Mt and specific energy
consumption 0,085 toe/tonne
– 2010: Consumption : 1.2 Mtoe; production 15 Mt and 0,08 toe/tonne
Energy savings 15* (0,085- 0,08)=- 0.075 Mtoe
Calculation of energy sector directly at sector level with ODEX
• Energy Savings (ES) can be directly derived from ODEX
• ODEX is equal to the ratio between the energy consumption at year t
(E) and a fictive consumption that would have happened without
energy savings (ES):
ODEX=E/(E+ES)*100
 ES = E x ((100/ODEX)-1)
• If energy consumption = 50 Mtoe and ODEX =80
Energy savings =50* ((100/80)-1)=12.5 Mtoe
Energy savings fro households (EU-27)
Energy savings for households exceeded 70 Mtoe since 2000 : without energy
efficiency improvement, the energy consumption would have been 70 Mtoe
higher in 2012, ie the equivalent of the total consumption for water heating,
electrical appliances and lighting;
Mtoe
10
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Annual savings
Annual energy savings
(Mtoe/year)
8
Cumultive energy savings (Mtoe)
Cumulative savings since 2000
6
4
2
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
Indicators of energy savings
•
•
About 120 Mtoe energy savings in 2010 compared to 2000 (i.e. 12% of final energy
consumption). In other words without energy savings the final energy consumption
would have been 12% higher in 2010.
Around 40% of total savings in households, 31% for industry, 29% for transport
Evaluation of energy savings for final consumers (EU-27)
120
Industry
100
Transport
Households
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
19
Outline
1. ODEX
2. Energy savings
3. Decomposition of power sector consumption
Principles of the decomposition of the power sector
Three main effects explain the variation of the net consumption for
power generation over a period*:
 The increased consumption of electricity, that all things being
equal, contribute to increase the losses in power generation;
 Changes in the power mix between different sources with very
different efficiencies
o wind, hydro, PVs (100% efficiency);
o Thermal (between 30 and 50% depending on fuel mix and
technology);
o geothermal and nuclear (respectively 10% and 33%);
 Variation in the efficiency of thermal power generation
*net consumption for power generation= sum of input and outputs for electricity generation
Decomposition of consumption for power generation: effects of
increased electricity consumption
The increase in the electricity consumption (+1,6 Mtoe) translates into a much
larger consumption in the power sector (+ 4 Mtoe);
8
7
6
+ 4 Mtoe
5
4
+ 1,6 Mtoe
3
2
1
0
1990
2010
elec cons.
cons. power sector
Efficiency and power mix assumed constant and equal to 40%
22
Principles of the decomposition of the power sector (cont’d)
Apart from the effect of the increased consumption of electricity, the actual
consumption of the power sector is in addition depending on changes in the
power mix % (power mix effect) and changes in the efficiency of thermal power
generation (efficiency effect).
These two effects are calculated as the difference between the actual
consumption of the power sector in 2010 and a fictive consumption :
o at 1990 power mix and 2010 power efficiency for the power mix effect
o At 1990 efficiency and 2010 power mix for the efficiency effect
23
Decomposition of consumption for power generation: effect of
changes in power mix and thermal efficiency
The increase in the electricity consumption increased consumption in the power
sector by 4 Mtoe all things being equal; the actual variation in the power sector
consumption is lower (3 Mtoe) due to savings from changes in power mix (0,7
Mtoe) and efficiency gains in thermal power generation (0,3 Mtoe)
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
-0.7 Mtoe
+ 4 Mtoe
-0.3 Mtoe
+ 3 Mtoe
1990
2010 at 1990
power mix &
efficiency
2010 at 1990
efficiency & 2010
power mix
2010
24
•The increasing share of thermal power generation between 2005 and 2011 in Costa Rica
from 3 to 9% contributed to increase the power sector consumption, and thus the primary
energy consumption by around 800 ktoe, all things being equal.
•The increase of the thermal power generation efficiency from 31 to 37% resulted in
marginal savings (40ktoe) due to te low share of thermal power.
Decomposition of the power sector consumption variation
Case of Costa Rica (2005-2011)
1000
800
ktoe
600
400
200
0
-200
Variation of
Efficiency of
consumption of thermal power
power sector
plants
Power mix
Increased
electricity
consumption
In Spain, the primary consumption increased much less than the final
consumption (- 4,4 Mtoe), due to significant savings in the power sector (9,3
Mtoe), of which 5,2 Mtoe due to increased efficiency of thermal power generation
(penetration of CCGT) and 4.1 Mtoe due to a rapid penetration of wind and solar;
these savings were partially offset by the increased consumption of electricity that
contributed to raise the consumption of the power sector by 2,7 Mtoe
Decomposition of the primary energy consumption variation (2000-2010):
Case of Spain
15
Mtoe
10
-4,4 Mtoe
Power sector consumption
variation (-6.6 Mtoe)
5
2,2 Mtoe
0
-5
-10
Primary
consumption
variation
Final
consumption
variation
Increased
electricity
consumption
Efficiency of
thermal plant
Power mix
Variation of
(renewable) consumption for
other
transformations
Decomposition of the final energy consumption variation
A decomposition can be carried out for each main end-use sector (industry,
transport, household and services ... As shown for electrical appliances in the
household sector .
For each sector, the decomposition is calculated as the sum of the
decomposition for each end-use or sub-sector, since, as we are dealing with
volumes in ktoe the factors can be added
Decomposition of the final energy consumption variation
Consumption increased by 16 Mtoe between 2000 and 2010
Economic activity contributed to an increase of 122 Mtoe (of which 48 Mtoe due
to traffic increase in transport, 42 Mtoe to more dwellings), the effect of which
was more than offset by energy savings (128 Mtoe).
 Other drivers were: structural changes (+2 Mtoe), lifestyles (18 Mtoe), climate
variation ( 32 Mtoe) and other factors (mainly behavioural changes; 26 Mtoe).
Drivers of the variation of the final energy consumption in the EU between 2000 and 2010
Climate effect
Lifestyles
Mtoe
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
-140
Activity effect
Structure effect
Variation
consumption
Other
Energy savings
Total
industry
households
transport
services
agriculture
Decomposition of the final energy consumption variation
Primary energy consumption increased by 34 Mtoe between 2000 and 2010
More activity (including lifestyle and penetration of electricity) contributed to an
increase of 172 Mtoe;
Part of the effect was offset by energy savings (162 Mtoe).
 Other drivers were: climate variation (32 Mtoe) and other factors (mainly
behavioural changes 26 Mtoe).
Drivers of the variation of the primary energy consumption in the EU between 2000 and 2010
Mtoe
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
-90
-120
-150
-180
Activity effect
Climate effect
Variation
consumption
Other
Energy savings
Total
Power
industry
households
transport
services
agriculture