Status Report on 2007–2016
Long-Term Reliability Assessment
Mark Lauby
August 16, 2007
2007 LTRA Schedule
Drafting LTRA
● Open Meeting
●

August 16
Goals:
 Increased Transparency
 Identify Enhancements
Finalize Draft
● PC Review
● Board Approval
● Release
●
 Ongoing
August 31
Sept. 11-12
Mid-October
October 15
2007 LTRA Emerging Issues
Key Observations
Capacity Margin
?
?
Firm Commitments?
?
?
?
?
Transmission?
?
Fuel Supply?
?
Regulatory?
?
Target Level
Time
?
General Observations
● Difficulty evaluating resource adequacy,
●
●
●
●
especially in organized markets
Reluctance to commit to long-term
resource plans
Difficulty judging impact/effectiveness of
renewables and demand-side programs
Dependence on gas still high; interruptible
transportation contracts a big issue
More transmission projects announced,
but concerns whether they will be built
Specific Observations
● Margins tight in:
 New England
 MRO-US
 ERCOT
• WECC – RMPA
• WECC – CA-MX
• WECC – AZ-NM-SNV
● A significant increase in wind farms,
 Only 1,800 MW in 2007-2016 peak generation
 The remainder is considered energy-only
● 11,621 MW of new nuclear power capacity:
 ERCOT (6,176 MW)
 FRCC (1,125 MW)
 SERC (4,320MW)
Key Observations
● The U.S. DOE has identified two draft
National Interest Electric Transmission
Corridors (NIETC)
 Some States have expressed objections
● More Transmission Projects proposed
(2007–2011)
 Transmission/ancillary services to
accommodate wind energy
● Investments in Connecticut improving
reliability
Key Findings & Conclusions
● Continued Dependency on Natural Gas
in New England, Florida & California
● Bulk Power System Expansion Plan
Uncertainty makes Long-Term
Reliability Assessment Opaque
● Grid Investment Needed to Integrate
Intermittent Resources
● Regulatory Action impact Reliability
Projects
High-Level Scenarios
Reliability Impacts of …
● Significant penetration of wind energy
● High integration of demand response
● Natural gas unavailability due to
supply or delivery limitations
● Possible reductions in capacity as a
result of emissions restrictions
Questions and Suggestions
● Any issues or concerns not being
addressed?
● Additional scenarios to be considered?
● Other suggestions?