Data Work Group (DWG)
Agenda
January 27, 2015
DWG Meeting
DRAFT Agenda
January 27, 2014 10:00 – 11:30 a.m. (Mountain Time)
Webinar information (URL):
Link
Dial-in information: Conference Number: (877) 820-7831
Access Code: 664865
Meeting Objectives
The current assumptions for load sensitivities approved by SWG for high and low load scenarios in the
10 year forecast call for a 10% increase and 10% decrease for peak and energy. The purpose of this
meeting is to explore if these 10% values are appropriate.
The table below lists likely drivers for high and low loads. Potentially, we want to know, if using 10% is
a reasonable assumption?
Load
Sensitivities
High


Low
High
economic/demographic
growth
Low electricity and
natural gas rates

Low efficiency program

Self‐generation impacts

Extreme weather
conditions

Lower economic/demographic
growth,

Higher electricity and natural
gas rates,

Higher efficiency program

Self‐generation impacts.
Additionally, when estimating higher loads, is the 10% sufficient to generate numbers suitable for
transmission capacity planning?
WESTERN ELECTRICITY COORDINATING COUNCIL
155 North 400 West, Suite 200
Salt Lake City, Utah 84103-1114
DWG Meeting Agenda – January 27, 2015
2
Our intention has been to develop consistent assumptions for the 10 & 20 year “high” and “low” load
sensitivity forecasts. This discussion is designed to coordinate the long term forecast, making it
possible for using consistent assumptions; hence, making for easier transitioning from the 10 year to
the 20 year forecast.
Galen Barbose had shared previously that hourly load shapes may evolve over the forecast period for
lots of reasons: energy efficiency, increased saturation of certain end-uses, electric vehicles, and
increased penetration of solar/wind generation etc. This is partly, but not completely, captured via
relationship in monthly peak and energy forecasts, leading to the conclusion that applying a linear
growth may not be accurately depicted.
Time
Topic
Presenter/Moderator
10:00 – 10:05
Welcome and Introductions
Jamie Austin, PacifiCorp
10:05 – 10:10
WECC Anti-Trust Policy and Open Meeting Script
Dan Beckstead, WECC
10:10 – 10:20
Existing Assumptions for high and low
Dan Beckstead, WECC;
Mike Bailey, WECC


10:20 – 10:40
Assumptions for load sensitivities

10:40 – 11:00
Discuss assumptions for high and low load
conditions used by the California Energy
Commission
Galen Barbose, LBNL
Discuss the impact of high efficiency programs
on the load forecast
Assumptions for high loads

11:10 – 11:25
Angela Tanghetti, CEC
Assumptions for load sensitivities

11:00 – 11:10
10-year loads
20-year loads
Irinia Green, CAISO
Loads used by the ISO for Capacity Analysis
Assumptions for high loads

Reed Davis, BPA
Loads used by BPA for Capacity Analysis
11:25 – 11:30
Where Do We Go From Here?
11:30
Adjourn
Jamie Austin, PacifiCorp
WECC Policy Statement: This meeting will comply with WECC’s Antitrust Policy.
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