Math 101 Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index gives the price index for a sample of goods, services, and housing over time. Though thousands of CPI indexes each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are 2 main CPI’s most often used and discussed – CPI-U (All items CPI for All Urban Consumers) and CPI-W (All Items CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers). In particular CPI-U is used for updating things such as social security payouts and federal retirement benefits. CPI-W is used to determine things such as individual income tax parameters (the salary cutoffs for the income tax brackets). CPI is also used to adjust wages, salaries, and pensions for inflation. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=32z There are 8 main categories used to compute the CPI. Here they are and the weights each contributed in 2007-2008: Category All items Food and beverages Housing Apparel Transportation Medical Care Recreation Education Other goods and services 2007-2008 weights Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Weight 100.00 14.792 41.460 3.601 17.308 6.627 6.293 6.421 3.497 Though the CPI-U considers the cost of tens of thousands of items every month, here is an example of how it is computed: Create a hypothetical shopping cart (for the year). Item Milk Steak Butter Pepper Quantity per year 700 qts 300 lbs 50 lbs 0.5 lbs To determine the price index for these items, you need the average prices for each item in any given year. Assume the following prices: Item Milk Steak Butter Pepper 1990 Price $0.95/qt $3.83/lb $2.74/lb $9.13/lb 1995 Price $0.99/qt $3.94/lb $2.77/lb $7.67/lb 2000 Price $1.13/qt $4.27/lb $3.10/lb $8.03/lb Compute the total yearly cost for each item and find the index with 1990 as the base year. Item Milk Steak Butter Pepper All items combined Price index (base year = 1990) 1990 Total Cost 1995 Total Cost 2000 Total Cost Recall that the relative change in CPI is inflation: CPIY CPIX CPIX where X is a given year and Y is the following year (for example X = 1980 and Y = 1981). What is the percent inflation from 1995 to 2000? Can you think of any problems with this process of constructing a price index to measure inflation? Are there any potential issues with computing the CPI in this manner year after year? Some critics argue that the changes to the calculation of the CPI (in the 1980’s) underestimate the true inflation rate. Can you think of any benefits to underestimate inflation? Consider the following chart from the BLS CPI Detailed Report Data for September 2011 (http://www.bls.gov/cpi/#tables): Discuss why you might want to consider a CPI without food and energy. This CPI, called “CPI-U for All Items Less Food and Energy,” is “widely referred to as the "core" CPI, is closely watched by many economic analysts and policymakers under the belief that food and energy prices are volatile and are subject to price shocks that cannot be damped through monetary policy.”1 Common Misconceptions about the Consumer Price Index: Questions and Answers An August 2008 Monthly Labor Review article by BLS economists John Greenlees and Robert McClelland reviews and analyzes some common misconceptions about the Consumer Price Index (CPI). 1