Terrorism threats from Syria and Iraq The “Glocal Jihad” The ISIS Phenomenon Prof. Boaz Ganor Ronald Lauder Chair for Counter Terrorism, Founder & Executive Director, ICT – The International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) , Dean, Lauder School of Government Diplomacy & Strategy The Interdisciplinary Center, (IDC) Herzliya, Israel Email: ganor@idc.ac.il, Web: www.ict.org.il The “Arab Spring” and the Syrian Civil War Copyright © Dr. Boaz Ganor The most troubling statements made by Brennan related to his very definition of the enemy itself; he argued that the war being fought by the US is not against “terrorism,” because “terrorism is a tactic.” Nor, he argued, should it be described as a war against “jihadists” or “Islamists,” because “jihad is holy struggle, a legitimate tenet of Islam meaning to purify oneself of one’s community.” Copyright © Dr. Boaz Ganor Copyright © Dr. Boaz Ganor • Rebellions against traditional regimes • The liberals initiative is taken over by Islamists • Ungoverned territories • Terrorists strengthening (prisoners) • State of the art weapons + experience • Foreign fighters • Unconventional - CBRN Copyright © Dr. Boaz Ganor The Civil War in Syria Northern Idlib Aleppo and Its Countryside Katibat Ajnad ash-Sham ()كتيبة أجناد الشام Katibat al-Shuhaba’ ()كتيبة الشـــــــــــهباء Katibat Abu Talhah al-Ansari ()طلحة األاري Katibat Ansar al-Haqq ()كتيبة أنصار الحق Katibat Jabar bin ‘Abd Allah ()كابر عبد هللا Katibat Burj al-Islam ()كتيبة برج اإلسالم Katibat Sa’id bin Zayid ()كتيبة سعيد بن زيد ‘Amar bin Yasir ()عمار بن ياسر Katibat Sa’d bin Mu’az ()كتيبة سعد بن معاذ Katibat Hasan bin Thabit ()سان بن ثابت Katibat Sayyuf al-Sunnah () كتيبة سيوف السنةKatibat Ahfad ‘Ali bin Abu Talib ()بن أبيلب Abu Darda’ ()أبو الدرداء Katibat Abu al-Zubayr ()كتيبة أبو الزبير Ladhakiyyah Katibat Jund ar-Rahman () كتيبة جند الرحمنAhbab al-Rasul ()أحباب الرسول Katibat Zayid bin Harith ()كتيبة زيد بن حارثة Katibat al-Khadra’ ()االخضر كتيبة أنصار الحق Katibat al-‘Abas ()كتيبة العباس Katibat Suqur al-Ladhakiyyah ()كتيبة صقور الالذقية Sarayah Hudhayfah bin al-Yaman ()اليمان Katiat Asad al-Sunnah ()كتيبة أسد السنة Southeastern Idlib Katibat Zayat al-Haq ()كتيبة رايات الحق Katibat Sayyuf al-Islam ()كتيبة سيف االسالم Katibat ‘Abd Allag bin ‘Umar ()كبد ا بن عمر Katibat Abu Hudhayfah ()كتيبة أبو حذيفة Katibat Salah ad-Din ()كتيبة صالح الدين Katibat al-Aqsa ()كتيبة األقصى Katibat Dhia’ al-Islam ()كتيبة ضياء اإلسالم Katibat at-Tawhid ()كتيبة التوحـيـد Katibat al-Mujahidin ()كتيبة المجاهدين Katibat al-Alqsa ()كتيبة األقصى Katibat al-Qawat al-Khasah ()كتيبة القوات الخاصة Katibat at-Tawhid wa-l-Iman ()كالتو واإليمان Sarayah Abu ‘Abd Allah Li-l-Maham al-Khasah ( Katibat al-Shuhada’ ()كتيبة الشهداء Bayyariq al-Islam ()بيارق اإلسالم Tajama’a Jund al-Islam ()تجمع جند اإلسالم Katibat Jawhar al-Dudayyif ( Siham al-Layl ()سهام الليل Katibat Abu al-Islam ()كتيبة أبو إسالم Katibat Ahfad Muhammad al-Fatih ( Katibat al-Husayn ()كتيبة الحسين Katibat Nusibah al-Ansariyyah ()نُسيبة األنصارية Katibat Abu ‘Ubaydah al-Jarah ( Katibat al-Qa’qa’ ()كتيبة القعقاع Katibat Abu Hasan ()كتيبة أبو الحسن Katibat al-Ansar ()كتيبة األنصار Katibat ‘Az ash-Sham ()كتيبة عزّ الشام Katibat Saraya al-Majad () كتيبة سرايا المجدKatibat al-Ansar ()كتيبة الفرقان Katibat al-Ahwaz ()كتيبة األحواز Liwa’ al-Haqq Katibat al-Riyyah al-Jinah ()كتيبة رياح الجنّة Katibat al-Saqiq ()كتيبة الصديق Katibat Khalid bin al-Walid ()كتيبة خالد بن الوليد Katibat al-Furati ()كتيبة الفراتي al-Kharsa’ ()الخرساء Katibat al-Huda ()كتيبة الهدى al-Murabitin ‘Ala ad-Din ()المرابطين على الدين Katibat al-Nasir Li-Din Allah ()لدين هللا Katibat Hamzah Sayyid al-Shuhada’ ()الشهداء Katibat Siba’ al-Bar ()كتيبة سباع البر Katibat Shuhada’ Baba ‘Umru () بابا عمروKatibat al-Shahid Yusuf Yasin ()كتيبة أنصار الحق Dara’a Katibat Atba’ al-Rasul () كتيبة أتباع الرسولKatibat ‘A’ishah Um al-Mu’minin ()كم المؤمنين Katibat Mus’ab bin ‘Amir ()كتيبة مصعب بن عمي Katibat al-Yarmuk ()اليرموك) كتيبة عباد هللا)بن ثابت Katibat al-Ansar ()كتيبة األنصار Katibat al-Bara’ ()كتائب البراء Katibat al-Bara’ bin Malik ()لبراء بن مالك Jaysh at-Tawhid Liwa’ Tariq bin Zayad ()لواء طارق بن زياد Katibat Abu Qasim ()كتيبة أبو القاسم Katibat al-Sawarikh ()كتيبة الصورايخ Katibat Ahbab al-Mustafa ()أحباب المصطفى Damascus and Its Countryside Katibat al-Ansar ()كتيبة األنصار في بنش Katibat Yazid bin Ma’wayah ()يزيد بن معاوية Katibat Jund ash-Sham ()كـتـيـبـة جند الشام Katibat Mus’ab bin ‘Umar Katibat ‘A’ishah Um al-Mu’minin ()المؤمنين al-Zubayr bin al-‘Awam ()الزبير بن العوام Suqur al-Islam Katibat al-Rahbah ()كتيبة الرحبة Katibat Fajr ash-Sham ()كتيبة فجر الشام Kata’ib al-Iman al-Muqatilah Liwa’ al-Mansur ()لواء المنصور Katibat Fajr al-Islam ()كــتــيبة فجر اإلسالم Katibat Hamzah bin ‘Abd al-Mutalib Katibat Hadhifah bin al-Iman () كتيبة حذيفة بن اليمانJama’at al-Tali’ah al-Islamiyyah )محمد بن مسلمة Katibat Ahmad ‘Asaf ()كتيبة أحمد عساف Katibat Zayd bin Thabit ()كتيبة زيد بن ثابت Katibat ‘Abd Allah bin Salam () كتيبة عبد هللا بن سالمKatibat Shuhada’ ()كتيبة شهداء Saraya Ahmad Yasin ()سرية أحمد ياسين Katibat Muhammad bin Muslimah ()كتيبة محمد بن مسلمة The Coast Katibat Nusur al-Sahil ()كتيبة نسور الساحل Katibat ‘Abadah al-Samit ()كتيبة عبادة بن الصامت Katibat Nusrah al-Madhlum ()كتيبة نصرة المظلوم Katibat Ibn Taymiyyah ()كمية)كتيبة محمد بن مسلمة Ariha and the Mountains Katibat ‘Abad ar-Rahman ()باد الرحمن Fuwaris al-Sunnah ()فوارس السنّة Katibat Rijal Allah ()كتيبة رجال هللا Katibat Abu Dujanah ()كتيبة أبو دجانة Katibat al-Sariyyat al-Jabal ()ن مسلمة al-Jazirah (Northeastern Syria) Katibat al-Miqdad bin al-Aswad ()ود Katibat Ahrar al-Jazirah ()حرار الجزيرة Katibat Tal Hamis ()كتيبة تل حميس Katibat al-Qadisiyyah ()كتيبة القادسية Abu Muhajir ()أبو مهاجر Musa bin Nasir ()موسى بن نصير Katibat ‘Ali bin Abu Talib ()ن أبي طالب Harakat al-Fajr al-Islamiyyah )مسلمة al-Ghab (Hama) Katibat al-Sayyidah ‘A’ishah ()عائشة Katibat ‘Uthman bin ‘Afan ()بن عفان Katibat ‘Ali bin Abu Talib ()ن أبي طالب Ahrar Jiblah ()أحرار جبلة Katibat ‘Umar bin Khatab ()ن الخطاب Katibat Abu Bakr as-Sadiq ()ر الصديق Katibat Qawafil al-Shuhada’ ()شهداء Katibat Ansar al-Haqq ()بة أنصار الحق Liwa’ al-Iman Katibat Abu al-Fida’ ()كتيبة أبي الفداء Katibat Salah ad-Din ()يبة صالح الدين Katibat Abu ‘Ubaydah ‘Amar bin al Katibat ‘Amad ad-Din Zanki ()ن زنكي Katibat al-Hamzah bin ‘Abd al-Mut Katibat al-Zubayr bin al-‘Awam ()ام Katibat al-Bara’ bin ‘Azib ()بن عازب Katibat Shuhada’ al-‘Arbayyin ()عين Katibat al-Mulazim Awal Ra’id Muq Katibat Tariq bin Zayad ()ارق بن زياد Katibat al-Fatihin ()كتيبة الفاتحين Katibat Abna’ al-Islam ()أبناء اإلسالم Katibat al-Furqan ()كتيبة الفرقان Katibat al-Qa’qa’ ()كتيبة القعقاع Homs and Its Countryside Katibat Junud ar-Rahman ()الرحمن Katibat al-Hamra’ ()الكتيبة الحمراء Katibat Ansar al-Sunnah wa-l-Shar Katibat ‘Adnan ‘Aqalah ()عدنان عقلة Katibat ‘Abad Allah ()عباد هللا)بن ثابت 1. Sunni – Salafi - Global Jihad (ISIS) 2. Sunni – Salafi - Local Jihad (Jabhat) 3. Sunni – Muslim Brotherhood 4. Kurds 5. FSA – Free Syrian Army 6. Hezbollah 7. Assad Forces Mercenaries: • Qardawi – Call for volunteers • Over 60 countries, 10,000 foreign fighters (mainly to ISIS & Jabhat al-Nusra) • Over 2000 fatalities, (older age with families) • Main source countries – Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Chechnya, Saudi Arabia. • Others: Kuwait, Lebanon, Chad, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Tunisia, Sudan, Turkey, Jordan • Israel – 15-20 Israeli Arabs, (2013 – 2 Israeli Arabs from Taybe arrested). Concrete Challenges The Growing Threat of ISIS • • • • • • • The Anatomy of the Islamic State Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali Muhammad al-Badri al-Samarra ISIS 2011 Heading ISIL as of May 2010 Abu Bakr )Iraq+Syria( Amir al-Mu'minin, proclaimed as caliph 2014 (Mosul) ISIL Wanted - 10 Million dollar. al-Baghdadi Was born – 1971, Samarra, PhD– Bagdad U– Islamic studies"Caliph Ibrahim”)Iraq+Levant( Was arrested 2005 – 2009, Iraq Was seriously hurt in May 2015 airstrike? Deputies – supreme council Fadel Ahmed Abdullah al-Hiya Iraq -Former Major District general ,Military Former Lieutenant general , Military intelligence and Special forces under Sadam Fighters Assistance Council Abu Kassem Foreign fighters Suicide attackers Abu Muslim alTurkmani Shura Council Legal Council Abu Arkan Al –Ameri Enforcing the “Sharia” law Jugging religious Law breakers - Verdicts intelligence District 6 X Governor Abu Ahmed Al-Alwani 8-13 Members Military activities Governor Abu Kofah Weapons Casualties Women Explosives Financial Council Media Council Abu Salah Abu Hajar Al -Assafi Drafting Laws Abu Louay Key Policies Aka Abu Ali Nominating The Caliph Saladin Kirkuk SE Euphrates Borders Abu Suja ISIL, 2007 Al Qaeda-AQI 2003, Iraq Syria Abu District Ali alAnbari 6 X District Cabinet – Overall Policy Security District Governors in Iraq Council Military Leadership Council Council 9-11 Religious Leaders Nominating Governors councils Abu Shema Abu abu Omar musab alAl-bgdadi zarqawi Internal Policing Executions Bagdad Anbar Monetary Road Blocks management “Beatles” (British) Weapons Hostages Acquisition Oil Sales Propaganda Regulating Media & Social Media ISIS is the “Real Thing” IRA PFLP Fatah PFLP/GC Hamas Al Qaeda PIRA (provisional) Real IRA Copyright © Dr. Boaz Ganor ISIS The ISIS Epidemic • Majlis Shura Shaba al-Islam • Jaysh al-Sahaba fi Bilad al-Sham • Jund al-Rahman Brigade • Abu Mohjen Al-Taifi • Ansar Al-Shari'a • Mu'tah Islamic Army Lybia • Al-Ikhlas Brigade Philippines Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis • The Army of the Prophet's Companions in Greater Mujahideen of Sinai, Egypt • Jaysh Al-Sahaba Eastern Indonesia Jama‘at Abu Sayyaf Al-Huda group – Kamal Abu al-Yaqdhan Syria Maghreb • Abu Yazid Abd al-Qahir al-Khurasani • Tehreek-e-Khilafat • Abd al-Rahim Dost Al-Afghani Ansar al-Tawhid al-Hind Ansar al-Islam India Boko Haram Nigeria Iraq Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa - Hammad bin Muhammad al-Amin Mali Taliban Pakistan Abu Malik al-Tamimi AQ – Afghanistan Copyright © Dr. Boaz Ganor Concrete Challenges The War against ISIS The US campaign in Iraq August 8, US president Barack Obama announced air strikes against Isis in Iraq. 16 September 2014 - Dempsey and Hagel: The US is “at war” with Isis. 23 September 2014 - The US military - the total number of attacks against Isis targets in Iraqi territory - 194. At first on the average 3-5 daily air strikes, in Iraq Recently 15-20 daily strikes in Syria and Iraq Israel in Gaza – in pillar of defense (2011) - approx. 187, protective edge (2014) – approx. 167 The US campaign in Syria The American led airstrikes against ISIS in Syria September 2014 September 10th 2014 Barack Obama announced “an open-ended bombing campaign against ISIS militants that will extend into Syria for the first time. “We will conduct a systematic campaign of airstrikes against these terrorists,” said Obama. Up to September 25th – 33 Airstrikes in Syria. Qalamoun: Qara Dier Al Atiya Al Hajar Al Aswad Al Yarmouk Copyright © Dr. Boaz Ganor US Airstrikes on ISIS 23 September 2014 - ISIL Finance center in Raqqa. The attack was engaged with tomahawk cruise missiles fired from the USS Philippines sea. Was a finance center destroyed or damaged? In a CENTCOM statement: (23 September 2014) - The strikes destroyed or damaged multiple ISIL targets in the vicinity of the towns of Ar Raqqah including a finance center. Copyright © Dr. Boaz Ganor Hezbollah Website (January 2015)