BARACK OBAMA AND THE
POLITICS OF HOPE (?)
RATIONALES FOR
ALTERNATIVES
• U.S. loss of “soft power”
• Continuing frustration in Latin America
• Importance of Latin America to U.S.
• Change of U.S. administration as result of
presidential election
WHAT DRIVES
FOREIGN POLICY?
•
•
•
•
Generosity
Friendship
Proximity
Repayment of historical debt
– Or
• Self-centered national interest.
CLASSICAL REALISM
• 1. The international system is anarchical.
• 2. Sovereign states are principal actors.
• 3. States are rational actors, pursuing national
interests, and are in competition with one
another.
• 4. Overriding goals are survival and
security—best guaranteed by military power.
• 5. Constraints achieved by resistance of other
powers, not by treaties or friendship.
“PROGRESSIVE” REALISM
• 1. International system not anarchical but structured,
as through “regimes.”
• 2. Nonstate actors and international organizations
play significant roles.
• 3. State preferences vary from time to time, place to
place.
• 4. States are not inherently aggressive or
competitive; preferences can change.
• 5. Cooperation can yield mutual gains for
participating states.
FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES
•
•
•
•
•
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Nature of power: “hard” vs. “soft.”
Sovereignty and internal vs. international domains.
War vs. peace.
Importance of democracy.
Value of international cooperation, institutions.
American power: extent vs. limits.
SELECTED ISSUE AREAS
• 1. Economic integration and FTAs.
•
•
•
•
•
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Drug trafficking.
Immigration.
Organization of American States.
Pink Tide.
Cuba.
WOLA PROPOSAL:
THREE PRINCIPLES
• 1. The United States should support economic
development strategies oriented to both growth and
equity in Latin America.
• 2. The United States should help strengthen the
civilian institutions that provide citizen security in
Latin America.
• 3. The United States should support the development
and consolidation of democratic institutions and
respect for human rights in Latin America.
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE?
• 1. Election of a president with personal commitment
to progressive paradigm and a strong interest in Latin
America.
• 2. Events within region that demand U.S. attention—
e.g., spread of pink tide or launching of terrorist
attack.
• 3. World developments that focus attention on Latin
America—e.g., “clash of civilizations.”
• 4. Demographic and political changes within the
United States.
And the outlook
is…..?
THE OBAMA RECORD
• Exaggerated expectations
• Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and
international (Afghanistan)
• Hesitant beginnings (Trinidad & Tobago ≠
Cairo)
CURRENT ISSUES
• Honduras: questionable commitment to
democracy
• Colombia: military bases
• Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo
• Points of tension:
– Venezuela
– Bolivia
– “Pink tide” in general
USA and Latin America: Comparative and Historical Perspective
_________Latin America as Priority___________
______ Low _______
_______ High _____
Operational
Mode for U.S. ____
Unilateral
Ad hoc
Systematic
imposition
intervention
(Bush 2001-09)
(Reagan 1981-89)
_______
_________________
__________________
Intermittent,
Consistent,
Multilateral
low-level
high-level
diplomacy
engagement
(Clinton 1993-2000)
(Kennedy 1961-63)
____________________________________________________________
Rank-Order Preferences for U.S. Policy
U.S. Policy
__Configuration__ _Bush II__
___Partners___
(Mexico,
__Colombia)__
__Targets___
(Cuba,
__Venezuela)__
__Rivals___
__(Brazil?)__
___Bystanders__
___(Others)____
Low priority
+ Unilateral
1
4
2
1
4
Low priority
+ Multilateral
2
3
1
2
2
High priority
+ Unilateral
3
1
4
4
3
High priority
+ Multilateral
4
2
3
3
1
Note: As presented here, ordinal rankings mean that 1 stands for the first-place (most preferable) choice,
2 for the second-place choice, 3 for the third-place choice, and 4 for the fourth-place (least preferable) choice.
Question: Where to place Obama?