The Nature of Science and Critical Thinking -- Joe Heafner, M.S. Catawba Valley Community College Catawba Valley Astronomy Club Lucile Miller Observatory Contributing Editor, Sky & Telescope Version 20070116 This presentation is freely available in various formats from the author’s website, http://www.sticksandshadows.com. You can contact the author at heafnerj@sticksandshadows.com. This presentation is copyright 2006 by Joe Heafner. “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.” -- Sherlock Holmes in Arthur Conan Doyle’s A Scandal in Bohemia (1891) What Is Science? What Isn’t Science? After this presentation, you should be able to... define “science”, distinguish science from pseudoscience, understand when science can be used and when it cannot, and apply science to get answers (this takes an entire semester...or longer). The American Association of Physics Teachers (AmJPhys 67 (8), August 1999, p. 659) says: “Science is the systematic enterprise of gathering knowledge about the world and organizing and condensing that knowledge into testable laws and theories.” “The success and credibility of science is anchored in the willingness of scientists to: ” “(1) expose their ideas and results to independent testing and replication by other scientists; this requires the complete and open exchange of data, procedures and materials;” “(2) abandon or modify accepted conclusions when confronted with more complete or reliable experimental evidence.” “Adherence to these principles provides a mechanism for self-correction that is the foundation of the credibility of science.” process “Science is the systematic enterprise of gathering knowledge about the world and organizing and condensing that knowledge into testable laws and theories.” “The success and credibility of science is anchored in the willingness of scientists to: ” “(1) expose their ideas and results to independent testing and replication by other scientists; this requires the complete and open exchange of data, procedures and materials;” “(2) abandon or modify accepted conclusions when confronted with more complete or reliable experimental evidence.” “Adherence to these principles provides a mechanism for self-correction that is the foundation of the credibility of science.” What is your perception of scientists? Astronomy is an observational science, not an experimental science. That which is not science, but pretends to be science, is pseudoscience. pseudo + science = false science That which is assumed to be unexplainable cannot be called science. All scientists search for explanations that are assumed to exist. Science cannot be used to get an answer that doesn’t exist. Science has limitations! A “scientific model” is a collection of concepts that accounts for all existing observational and experimental results and generates testable predictions. Such a model does not necessarily constitute anything tangible, like a model airplane. Models explain things and generate testable predictions. When there are two or more competing models for a phenomenon and all the models yield the same results, Occam’s razor says that the simplest model is the correct one. Nature prefers simplicity. One more thing... Any scientific claim must be capable of being falsified. This has nothing to do with whether the claim is true or false! Sanity Check! (Credit to Paul Hewitt) Which of the following statements is a scientific claim? (1) Human beings will never set foot on the Moon. (2) Some of the laws that govern Nature cannot be detected by scientists. (3) It is quite possible that in some other galaxy the laws of physics are fundamentally different than the laws we are acquainted with in this galaxy. In your groups, come up with one scientifically valid statement and one scientifically invalid statement and discuss both statements’ merits. Is the sky blue on a clear day? How do you know? Did someone tell you? Did you see it for yourself? Do you BELIEVE the sky is blue or do you ACCEPT it as reality? If someone were to tell you that they simply do not believe the sky is blue on a clear day, what would your response be? Consider these questions... Is Earth round? Does Earth really spin? Does Sun orbit Earth? Is Earth’s rotational axis tilted? Is Earth at the center of the Universe? Do other planets orbit Earth? Is there a supreme deity? Does casual use of <5 mW handheld green laser pointers ruin astrophotos? Is there life elsewhere in the Universe? If you answered “yes” or “no” without considering the scientific validity of the question, considering HOW you know the answer, or considering WHY you accept the answer, then you’re operating under a “belief system” rather than under valid science. Scientists don’t “believe” the sky is blue on a clear day! They accept it as reality because it can be directly and repeatedly observed! (Note the use of the word “repeatedly”!) The sky IS blue on a clear day! See for yourself! Science and belief systems can peacefully coexist AS LONG AS we understand that they have different, but not interchangeable, purposes. No true scientist will ever ask you to change your beliefs. Sometimes, people who have a vested interest in “getting something” from you will ask you to change your beliefs. Scientists don’t deal in beliefs. Thinking about things as critically as possible MAY lead YOU to change some of your beliefs, but no scientist will ever try to make you change your (spiritual) beliefs. Only YOU can change YOUR beliefs. You’re always free to believe anything you like, but science restricts you to that which meets the formal definition of scientific validity. Keep the beliefs separate from the science! Don’t take anyone’s word for anything! That includes teachers, politicians, lawyers, scientists, and others! Some people rely on our aversion to questioning authority to have their way with us. Want evidence? Consider the brands of clothes you’re wearing right now! Why should we care? Well, consider an ordinary box of straws. It’s okay to question intellectual authority! Those who tell you otherwise have something to hide. SHOW SHOW SHOW SHOW SHOW SHOW SHOW ME ME ME ME ME ME ME THE THE THE THE THE THE THE EVIDENCE EVIDENCE EVIDENCE EVIDENCE EVIDENCE EVIDENCE EVIDENCE BABY! BABY! BABY! BABY! BABY! BABY! BABY! “Evidence in support of” is not equivalent to “proof of”. Scientists don’t “prove right” anything. We gather evidence. “There is something special about the first day of spring that allows one to balance an egg on its end only on this day.” Critical Thinking is highly shunned in our modern society, is seen as a threat to authorities outside of the scientific community, especially the business world, is seldom addressed in science courses despite lofty claims to the contrary, and often requires questioning authority, which is often seen as offensive, isn’t universally defined. (!!!!) “Why should we subsidize intellectual curiosity?” -- Ronald Reagan, campaign speech, 1980 Critical Thinking Tell students it’s okay (and necessary!) to question what they’re told! Tell students to question every number in their textbooks! Tell students to verify observations for themselves! Tell students to DEMAND EVIDENCE! “The difference between faith and institutional religion is like the difference between wisdom and test scores. Faith looks beyond itself and trusts; institutional religion looks mainly at itself and controls.” -- Tom Ehrich, quoted in The Charlotte Observer, Sunday, October 23, 2005, page P1. Critical Thinking Baloney Detection Kit, available for $5 from http://www.skeptic.com We need to teach how to recognize logical fallacies. It’s not just for English classes any more! What better place to teach this than in a science course! We need to overcome innumeracy (the inability to think with numbers)! The probability that a woman of age 40 has breast cancer is about 1%. If she has breast cancer, the probability that she tests positive on a screening mammogram is 90%. If she does not have breast cancer, the probability that she nevertheless tests positive is 9%. What are the chances that a woman who tests positive actually has breast cancer? It is the night after Adam and Eve’s first day in Paradise. Together, they watched Sun rise and illuminate the marvelous trees, flowers, and birds. At some point the air got cooler, and Sun sank below the horizon. What is the probability that Sun will rise again? “I would hope that my faith is not so weak as to require proof. I would hope that my critical thinking ability is not so impaired as to require faith.” -- Brian Hissom, M.A., N.C.C., L.P.C. Consistent Terminology The word “theory” connotes “uncertainty” to laypersons, but this is incorrect usage for scientists. Substitute “body of knowledge known as...” for “theory of...” (e.g. “body of knowledge known as relativity” rather than “theory of relativity”). Use “hypothesis” for an untested idea. Who is to blame for muddled terminology? Scientists! We’re terrible communicators! Consistent Terminology Substitute “evidence tells us” for “we believe” (e.g. “Evidence tells us that electrons behave this way.” rather than “We believe electrons work this way.”). Scientists don’t deal in beliefs. We deal in evidence. Who is to blame for muddled terminology? Scientists! We’re terrible communicators! Consistent Terminology Substitute “confidence” for “faith” (e.g. “We have confidence in our results.” rather than “We have faith in our results.”). Scientific results aren’t based on faith. They’re based on evidence. Who is to blame for muddled terminology? Scientists! We’re terrible communicators! find vs. find the value of fact vs. opinion possibility vs. probability evidence vs. proof critical thinking vs. promoting an agenda Most students do not have the skills to “make up their own minds”. That’s why they’re in school. Many “teachers” enter the classroom having already decided not to teach true science. It’s only a matter of time before a teacher or school system is sued for incompetence. (Yay! It’s finally happened! Science won!) Why perpetuate the illusion of “debate” when there’s NOTHING to debate? This is a tactic of antiscientists and politicians. So, what can we do as teachers (like it or not, we’re all teachers) to better the situation? The answers are simple, but disturbing to some. And now, six really radical, and potentially offensive and subversive ideas: 1) STOP GIVING PSEUDOSCIENCE “EQUAL TIME” IN THE CLASSROOM, UNLESS... IT’S TO DIRECTLY COMPARE AND CONTRAST WITH TRUE SCIENCE. 2) Don’t equate questioning and skepticism with insubordination! That’s so...corporate...and educational. 3) Don’t equate “critical thinking” to “promoting an agenda” just because you don’t agree with what you’re asked to think about. 4) Get over the unhealthy obsession with “proof” and concentrate on “evidence”. 5) Cure innumeracy! Use more numbers! Stop promoting numerical ignorance! 6) Enforce consistently correct terminology! Grade it! References Arons, Arnold B. Teaching Introductory Physics (Wiley, New York, 1997) Bok, Derek. Our Underachieving Colleges: A Candid Look at How Much Students Learn and Why They Should Be Learning More (Princeton, New York, 2006) Gigerenzer, Gerd. Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You (Simon & Schuster, New York, 2002) Sagan, Carl. The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark (Ballantine, New York, 1996) Shermer, Michael and Pat Linse. The Baloney Detection Kit (The Skeptics Society, http://www.skeptic.com) POP QUIZ! More people are dying of cancer than ever before. Therefore, cancer has significantly increased in resilience over the years. Every person who ate a dill pickle in 1850 died. Therefore we should ban dill pickles. A grocery store manager claims to have developed a cure for the common cold and publishes his discovery in a letter to the editor of the local newspaper. He claims that after taking one dose of his cure, his cold went away in about ten days. Therefore his remedy must have cured his cold. A child is taking a hot shower. He notices that that the water isn't as hot as it was a minute ago, so he turns on more hot water. He feels the water getting cooler and turns up the hot water again. After another two minutes, the water feels cool but the hot water is turned all the way on. The child must have developed the superhuman power to withstand high temperatures. There are some (many?) questions to which modern science cannot provide answers. Therefore, these questions MUST have answers that involve supernatural influences. Evolution is just a theory. Evolution must be correct because the overwhelmingly vast majority of scientists say it is correct. If astronomers can’t even agree on what a planet is, then they can’t possibly be right about evolution. Carl Sagan was known to smoke pot. Therefore, all of his scientific writings are suspect. Earth is such a complex system that it simply must have had divine origins. There must be something spiritually significant about the Earth-Moon system because Earth is the only planet we know of from which the inhabitants see a natural satellite and Sun with the same angular size. On the way here, I saw a car with license plate BXP-3977. Of all the license plates I could have seen, I saw THAT ONE. There must be some supernatural influence that led me to see THAT particular license plate. A Final Thought From Phil Plait, the Bad Astronomer (used with his permission) I know a place where the Sun never sets. It’s a mountain, and it’s on the Moon. It sticks up so high that even as the Moon spins, it’s in perpetual daylight. Radiation from the Sun pours down on there day and night, 24 hours a day—well, the Moon’s day is actually about 4 weeks long, so the sunlight pours down there 708 hours a day. I know a place where the Sun never shines. It’s at the bottom of the ocean. A crack in the crust there exudes nasty chemicals and heats the water to the boiling point. This would kill a human instantly, but there are creatures there, bacteria, that thrive. They eat the sulfur from the vent, and excrete sulfuric acid. I know a place where the temperature is 15 million degrees, and the pressure would crush you to a microscopic dot. That place is the core of the Sun. I know a place where the magnetic fields would rip you apart, atom by atom: the surface of a neutron star, a magnetar. I know a place where life began billions of years ago. That place is here, the Earth. I know these places because I’m a scientist. Science is a way of finding things out. It’s a way of testing what’s real. It’s what Richard Feynman called “A way of not fooling ourselves.” No astrologer ever predicted the existence of Uranus, Neptune, or Pluto. No modern astrologer had a clue about Sedna, a ball of ice half the size of Pluto that orbits even farther out. No astrologer predicted the more than 150 planets now known to orbit other suns. But scientists did. No psychic, despite their claims, has ever helped the police solve a crime. But forensic scientists have, all the time. It wasn’t someone who practices homeopathy who found a cure for smallpox, or polio. Scientists did, medical scientists. No creationist ever cracked the genetic code. Chemists did. Molecular biologists did. They used physics. They used math. They used chemistry, biology, astronomy, engineering. They used science. These are all the things you discovered doing your projects. All the things that brought you here today. Computers? Cell phones? Rockets to Saturn, probes to the ocean floor, PSP, gamecubes, gameboys, X-boxes? All by scientists. Those places I talked about before—you can get to know them too. You can experience the wonder of seeing them for the first time, the thrill of discovery, the incredible, visceral feeling of doing something no one has ever done before, seen things no one has seen before, know something no one else has ever known. No crystal balls, no tarot cards, no horoscopes. Just you, your brain, and your ability to think. Welcome to science. You’re gonna like it here. Thank you!