BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information January 26, 2016 Press Release Debt Developments in the Economy, November–December 2015 The following are a number of changes made to the debt and credit aggregates, which are reflected in this and future notices: 1. As part of the continuing expansion and improvement of data in the Bank of Israel’s databases, the Information and Statistics Department has compiled historical data on the debt and credit system in the economy. As a result, the historical availability of data has been extended by more than 7 years, and data are now available as far back as September 1992, rather than December 1999. The data will be available on the Bank of Israel’s website as of the publication of this notice.1 2. As part of this work, there were also methodological improvements made to the current and historical data. In addition, information added to the banks’ monthly balance sheets has helped in improving data on debt. The following is a table presenting the main changes in the September 2015 data on the business sector and households2: Business sector Total debt Debt to banks Old 820 395 30/09/2015 New Difference 807 -13.8 386 -9.1 Households Total debt Debt to banks Derived from a more correct breakdown of balance-sheet housing and nonhousing credit: Credit classified by the banks as business credit has been reclassified as credit to households. Tradable bonds in Israel 154 154 0.0 Earmarked credit 5.1 0 -4.8 0.0 -2 -1.5 Loans from institutional investors 0.0 -3 -3.2 55.6 25.8 1.5 184 56 26 2 184 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earmarked credit deduction to local authorities from the business sector Correction of the classification of earmarked credit that is not for housing or to the authorities Loans from institutional investors Nontradable bonds Loans from credit card companies Credit from abroad Derived from a more correct breakdown of balancesheet housing and nonhousing credit: Credit classified by the banks as business credit has been reclassified as credit to households. Earmarked credit Correction of the classification of earmarked credit that is not for housing or to the authorities Old 455 417 14 30/09/2015 New Difference 468 12.4 427 9.1 17.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 10 10 0.0 Loans from credit card companies 14 14 0.0 Housing debt Nonhousing debt 318 137 318 149 0.5 11.9 3. As of the next press release on the debt, the Information and Statistics Department will analyze the data on a quarterly frequency, and will therefore public a quarterly press release on debt developments in the economy. In parallel, monthly balance data will continue to be published on the Bank’s website on monthly frequency, but the limitations of the monthly data, as detailed below, due to which 1 2 http://www.boi.org.il/he/DataAndStatistics/Pages/MainPage.aspx?Level=4&Sid=53&SubjectType=2 For more details see Tables Debt on the Bank of Israel’s website. Debt Developments in the Economy, November–December 2015 Page 1 of7 the decision was made to move to a quarterly analysis, must be taken into account: a. The quarterly data reported by the banks are based on their balance sheets, which undergo a high level of control, and when amendments and improvements are made to the quarterly data, they are not necessarily reflected in the monthly data. Therefore, in some of the debt aggregates, the balance data during the quarter are not consistent with the balance data to the end of the quarter. b. The monthly data are more volatile than the quarterly data, and make it difficult to compile an analysis that will properly reflect the trends in the credit market. Business sector debt increased in November by about NIS 1 billion (0.1 percent), to about NIS 810 billion. Household debt increased in October by about NIS 3.1 billion (0.7 percent), to around NIS 472 billion at the end of the month. The business sector’s outstanding debt In November, business sector debt increased by about NIS 1 billion to around NIS 810 billion. The increase derived mainly from the depreciation of the shekel against the dollar by about 0.3 percent, which increased the shekel value of debt denominated in and indexed to foreign exchange. In addition, there was net raising of debt through bank loans and nonbank loans, which were mostly offset as a result of the net repayment of tradable and non-tradable bonds in Israel and credit from abroad. In December, the business sector (excluding banks and insurance companies) issued about NIS 1.8 billion in bonds, all in tradable bonds. This is significantly lower than the average issuance of the first eleven months of the year (about NIS 2.5 billion). Table 1: The Composition of Business Sector Debt Balance (NIS billion) 12-2013 12-2014 11-2015 9-2015 10-2015 1. Debt to banks 1 2. negotiable bonds in Israel 3. Non-negotiable bonds and nonbank loans 4. Debt abroad 2 Total business sector debt 1. Debt to banks 1 2. negotiable bonds in Israel 3. Non-negotiable bonds and nonbank loans 4. Debt issued abroad Total business sector debt 378 163 376 153 391 155 386 154 389 156 11-2015 2013 2014 391 155 -2.2 2.8 -0.5 -6.2 Change (percent) * 2015 9-2015 10-2015 4.2 1.2 0.0 1.4 11-2015 0.8 1.2 0.7 -0.6 77 81 83 83 83 83 21.9 4.6 2.8 -0.2 0.2 -0.4 169 787 189 798 181 810 184 807 181 809 181 810 7.6 2.8 12.1 1.5 -4.4 1.4 0.3 0.3 -1.5 0.3 -0.1 0.1 2013 Estimated Flow(NIS billion( 2014 * 2015 9-2015 10-2015 11-2015 2013 2014 -11.5 0.0 -6.3 -5.7 3.6 2.3 2.3 -1.1 -3.0 0.0 -1.7 -3.5 14.7 2.4 0.6 2.3 Change (percent) * 2015 9-2015 10-2015 3.9 1.6 0.1 1.5 11-2015 0.9 1.5 0.6 -0.7 1.1 3.2 1.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 1.7 4.1 2.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 15.4 5.0 -3.7 -12.4 -5.8 13.1 0.8 3.6 -0.1 6.0 -0.7 0.1 9.8 0.7 -2.2 -1.6 -3.1 1.6 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.7 -0.4 0.0 1 When comparing balances of debt to banks, it should be taken into account that beginning in January 2011 new Bank Supervision directives referring to provisions for impaired debts came into effect. 2 The reported balance of credit from nonresidents to the business sector is based on reports by Israeli companies. Debt Developments in the Economy, November–December 2015 Page 2 of7 Figure 1: Rate of Change (Year on Year) in the Business Sector's Bank and Nonbank Debt Borrowers Table 2: Debt by Indexation Debt by Indexation (NIS billion) 11/2015 CPI indexed Foreign Currency Unindexed Business sector 231 223 356 Of which: to banks 44 40 307 Of which: to non-banks 187 183 49 Households' debt 172 6 294 Of which: to banks 145 6 281 Of which: to non-banks 28 0 13 Of which: Loans for Housing 157 5 159 Total 810 391 419 472 431 41 321 % CPI indexedForeign CurrencyUnindexed 29% 28% 44% 11% 10% 79% 45% 44% 12% 36% 1% 62% 34% 1% 65% 67% 0% 33% 49% 2% 50% Figure 2: Business Sector Bond Issuance Debt Developments in the Economy, November–December 2015 Page 3 of7 Household debt Households’ outstanding debt increased by about NIS 3.1 billion (0.7 percent) in November, to about NIS 472 billion. Of that, the balance of outstanding housing debt increased by about NIS 2 billion, to about NIS 321 billion. In December, there was a seasonal increase in new mortgages taken out, with new mortgages totaling about NIS 5.6 billion, slightly higher than the average in the first eleven months of the year, which is about NIS 5.4 billion (see Figure 3). Table 3: Outstanding Debt Balances of Households1 Bilion shekels, current prices, month-ends Balance Rate of change From beginning of 5 year Last quarter Month ov er month 2011 2012 2013 2014 9-15 10-15 11-15 371 393 420 445 468 469 472 6.0% 0.8% 0.7% 325 349 378 403 427 428 431 7.1% 1.0% 0.7% 222 243 265 284 303 304 306 8.0% 1.5% 0.8% 104 106 113 119 124 124 125 5.2% -0.4% 0.7% 5.9 6.5 7.3 8.6 9.9 10.1 10.2 19.1% 3.6% 1.2% Of לדיור which: : מזהFor housing 7 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 -4.9% 0.0% -0.5% Of לדיור which: לא:מזה Not for housing 1.7% 2 Total household debt According to sources: מבנקים From banks: 6 Of לדיור which: : מזהFor housing 6 Of לדיור which: לא:מזה Not for housing מוסדיים Fromמגופים instituional inv estors: 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.9 7.4 7.5 7.7 30.0% 4.9% 3 אשראי Fromכרטיסי creditמחברות cards 3 9.0 9.6 10.2 12.0 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6% 1.8% 0.0% 4 )מכוון ממשלה (אשראי Government (directed credit)4 30.8 27.9 25.1 22.3 17.6 17.3 17.2 -22.90% -4.53% -0.82% 27.6 23.4 20.6 17.2 12.9 12.6 12.3 -28.53% -7.11% -2.64% לדיור Total חובfor סךhousing 251 269 288 303 318 319 321 5.8% 1.1% 0.6% לדיור Total שלאnot חובfor סךhousing 119 124 132 142 149 150 151 6.6% 0.2% 0.8% Of לדיור which: : מזהFor housing According to uses: Notes: 1 Individuals, not businesses. 2 Excluding credit from foreigners, due to lack of data 3 Credit under the responsibility of credit card companies; Credit under the responsibility or guarantee of banks is included in bank data 4 Credit directed to those eligible for mortgage assistance is the majority of this figure, the remainder is credit to students 5 Last three months 6 Includes loans given with house as collateral. As of December 2012 - about NIS 20 billion. 7 Until August 2013, the data did not differentiate between mortgage-backed loans to households and mortgage-backed loans to the business sector. Such segmentation began in August 2013, and the data were revised retroactively, so that part of the balance was reallocated to business sector debt. Debt Developments in the Economy, November–December 2015 Page 4 of7 Figure 3 :Total Housing Credit from Banks, According to Indexation: New Mortgage Volume The cost of the debt In November, the interest rate spread in the unindexed track narrowed by about 0.04 percentage points, mainly as a result of the decline in interest on outstanding credit. In the CPI-indexed track, the spread between the interest rate on new bank credit granted and the interest rate on deposits widened by about 0.05 percentage points in November, due to a higher increase in the interest on marginal indexed credit than the increase in interest on marginal indexed deposits. In December, the average spread between the yield on CPI-indexed corporate bonds—measured by the Tel Bond 60—and the yields on CPI-indexed government bonds widened to about 1.6 percentage points. In December, the average interest rate on new unindexed mortgages (variable-rate interest) increased by about 0.08 percentage points. The average interest rate on new CPI-indexed mortgages (fixed interest) also increase, by about 0.07 percentage points. Debt Developments in the Economy, November–December 2015 Page 5 of7 Table 4: The Cost of the Debt Cost of debt spreads Interest rate (percent) 08/15 09/15 10/15 11/15 Average interest on unindexed bank credit 3.39 3.41 3.44 3.40 Interest on CPI-indexed bank credit granted during the month 2.49 2.33 2.38 2.50 Spread between interest on credit and interest on unindexed deposits Spread between interest received on credit and interest paid on indexed deposits during the month 3.15 3.17 3.21 3.17 1.66 1.30 1.41 1.46 Spread between indexed corporate bonds (Tel-Bond 60) and indexed government bonds 1.50 1.64 1.59 1.55 Cost of bank debt Spreads (percentage points) Housing loans granted during the month by banks – Average Interest rates 09/15 10/15 11/15 12/15 Variable rate, unindexed sector 1.42 1.42 1.45 1.53 Fixed rate, CPI-indexed sector 2.45 2.58 2.56 2.63 Figure 4 : Spread between Indexed Corporate Bonds (Tel-Bond 60) and Indexed Government Bonds (monthly average) Debt Developments in the Economy, November–December 2015 Page 6 of7 Figure 5 : New Housing Loans from Banks – Interest Rates in the Unindexed Sector Figure 6 : New Housing Loans from Banks – Interest Rates in the CPI-indexed Sector For links to Data and Statistics on the Bank of Israel website: http://www.boi.org.il/en/dataandstatistics/pages/default.aspx http://www.boi.org.il/en/bankingsupervision/data/pages/tables.aspx?chapterid=13 Debt Developments in the Economy, November–December 2015 Page 7 of7