P&G and BrainJuicer
Partnering on Idea
Prioritization
July 2015
1
Contents
 Background
 P&G Experience & Performance To Date
 Principles & Watch Outs
 Other Considerations & BrainJuicer Tips
 Additional P&G Meta Findings
 About Predictive Markets
2
Background
 P&G and BrainJuicer have been partnering on idea testing using
BrainJuicer’s Predictive Markets methodology since 2007.
 Predictive Markets uses the wisdom of the crowd and
projective design rather than personal intention.
 BrainJuicer’s framework ultimately rates each idea on a simple,
intuitive 1- to 5-star rating scale, indicative of business
potential.
 The purpose of this deck is to highlight what we’ve learned to
date and provide perspective on how P&G can create winning,
5-star ideas.
3
P&G Experience &
Performance To Date
4
P&G Cases to Date (July 2015)
Since 2007…
studies
markets
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Brazil
China
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Japan
Mexico
Russia
US
UK
ideas tested
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41% in Beauty
11% in Health
10% in Fabric Care
10% in Family Care
8% Home Care
6% in Grooming
6% Overall Brand
4% in Food
2% in Feminine Care
2% in Baby
82% New Product
Development
18% Non-NPD
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35% Communication or Claims
32% Names
11% Positioning Statements
9% Promotion Ideas
7% Other
6% Early Pack Design Iterations
2013 Global FEI Pilot
in Hair Care for IQR
5
5
Predicting Market Impact
Distribution of P&G Ideas vs. BrainJuicer Database
Next Big Thing
10%
Market Beater
14%
Solid
Investment
3%
Top 5%
Next 10%
Next 10%
28%
Low Returns
45%
High Loss Risk
Next 25%
US Predictive
Markets Norm
Bottom half
6
The 5 Star Guide to Likely Business Potential
Reference Guide
Next
Big Thing
Market
Beater
Solid
Investment
Rare, top 5% of the database ideas typified by very
strong trading & emotional engagement and likely to
deliver strong in-market success. Progress without delay.
Very strong versus the database (top 5-15%) and likely
to deliver in-market success. Progress.
Clearly above average (top 15-25% of the database) and
in most cases recommended for progression.
Low
Returns
Still above average, but unlikely to make much impact in
market. In some cases ‘progress with improvements’ –
that is, positive energy ideas or strong polarizers.
US Predictive
High
Loss Risk
Below average idea, do not progress unless positive
energy idea or strong polarizers, with obvious fixes
Markets Norm
7
Emotional Profile of P&G Ideas By Star Rating
 5 and 4 star ideas are characterized by significant positive emotion.
 Neutrality is a hurdle.
2.15
1.91
2
1
3
1
1
1
12
1.75
4
1
0
1.58
6
2
1
1
1.39
1.70
12
9
Contempt
Disgust
5
1
2
2
21
27
Intensity Score
on scale 0 to +3
5
1
1
2
Anger
Fear
33
29
Sadness
Neutral
39
Happiness
67
55
Surprise
48
40
36
27
18
19
5-Star
4-Star
18
17
3-Star
2-Star
13
1-Star
17
Global Norm
8
Neutrality – The Key Hurdle To Overcome
Neutrality is the main hurdle for P&G’s 2-star ideas.
Getting the crowd’s attention with compelling news delivered in an easy-tounderstand, intuitive, System 1 way is key to conquering emotional
neutrality and bolstering excitement and positive emotions.
Let’s take a look at best practices for the future to reduce neutrality and create
5-star winning ideas!
9
The Path to 5-Star Success
Principles & Watch Outs for
creating and designing new ideas
10
5-Star Principles
1
Show Don’t Tell
We now know that human decisions are
largely driven by System 1 - the fast,
emotive and instinctive part of the brain.
We think much less than we think we
think, which means the traditional
persuasion approach is flawed. Though
we do not yet have any parallel cases with
P&G, other evidence suggests System-1
ideas have a better chance of success
than traditional concepts. The goal is to
immediately “click” with consumers.
2 Be NEW news!
Neutrality for P&G ideas is often linked
to the perception that many similar
products already exist.
The idea should immediately feel new
and different. The goal is to surprise
people!
“There are many kinds of
wipes in the market, this
is nothing new.”
1.
2.
3.
4.
Seek to SECUCE rather
than persuade
Use metaphorical
images to help it ‘click’
Explain without RTBs
Think ADCEPT!
It shouldn’t take more
than a few seconds to
describe what makes an
idea special. Seek to
convey it simply and
intuitively.
11
5-Star Principles
3 Make life EASIER!
We want things to be easy. We yearn
for the easiest route. It’s why the most
successful innovations are always
perceived to make life easier than
today’s best option.
P&G’s 5- and 4-star ideas intuitively
convey ease and value, such as 2-in-1
combo benefits or extra efficiency.
4 Make people FEEL good,
frame the idea positively!
Many of P&G’s 5- and 4-Star ideas make
people feel rewarded, appreciated, like
they are getting more or giving more
(i.e., helping the environment).
When creating new
ideas, ask yourself how
it makes life easier than
today’s solutions. If the
answer isn’t quick and
easy, rethink if and how
to make it so.
Frame the benefit in a
positive outcome or
reward rather than a
‘problem’ to solve.
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Watch Outs
Inspiration from what doesn’t work for 1- and 2-Star ideas
1 Too Much Rational Detail
A lot of explanation can limit the
emotive pull of any idea, especially when
spoken in marketing lingo or technical
jargon. Consumers tend to “tune out” if
the idea doesn’t immediately click.
2
Extreme brand “stretch”
or confusing co-branding
The P&G suite of brands offers many cobranding opportunities, but the
connection needs to be intuitively clear.
3 Far-Fetched / Gimmicky
Scepticism and contempt emerges
when ideas feel very far-fetched or
exaggerated, usually influenced by too
much technical explanation.
Think ‘System 1’ when
designing ideas. Write just
a few words to describe
what makes it special and
convey the vibe with
imagery.
Seek to convey an intuitive
connection between the
brand’s equity and what
makes the idea special.
Give new-to-world ideas
a better chance of success
by avoiding hyperbole
and keeping it simple.
13
Examples of What WORKS: Sparking an intuitive connection between
brand/product and a human insight (in this case, memories)
“Clothes can bring back
memories; a good softener can
make them feel and smell good”
Reason for Happiness
“The rain, the snuggly sweater
with memories - the softness”
Reason for Happiness
14
Examples of What WORKS: New news in a simple, intuitive way
“That Mr. Clean can
work on soft areas!”
Reason for Surprise
15
Examples of What WORKS: Make life easier
“Brilliant, the stain could wait until
the next load is ready to go in.”
Reason for Happiness
“Sounds simple and
foolproof”
Reason for Surprise
16
Examples of What WORKS: Positive framing, rewarding
“It’s soft and good for the
environment. More people
want this kind of stuff”
Reason for Happiness
“Getting rewards for a
purchase you HAVE to make
(pads) is great! Especially
Victoria’s Secret!”
Reason for Happiness
17
Examples of What DOESN’T WORK: Rational persuasion
“Not actually excited about
it, but seemed to depict
most practical uses.”
Reason for Neutrality
“There are many kinds of wipes in the
market; this is nothing new.”
Reason for Neutrality
18
Examples of What DOESN’T WORK: Lack of distinctive
perception or newness
“Do not feel much different
from the other similar products”
Reason for Neutrality
“Nothing can keep a sponge from
breeding bacteria, not even Dawn.”
Reason for Neutrality
“An idea where you can find it
anywhere”
Reason for Contempt
19
Examples of What DOESN’T WORK: Too much process speak or
marketing “lingo”
“Lumina-Gloss Emulsion" is vintage pseudoscientific gobbledegook advertising.”
Reason for Contempt
20
Examples of What DOESN’T WORK: Negative framing
“If you want to rid of
grey, you color your hair.”
Reason for Neutrality
“It says “color without fear"
what's there to fear?”
Reason for Neutrality
“It suggests you are old and need to hide.”
Reason for Contempt
21
Examples of What DOESN’T WORK: Extreme brand stretch /
confusing co-branding
“Don’t think they want Old
Spice on their butts.”
Reason for Disgust
“It’s not in line with
the brand.”
Reason for Neutrality
“Because ACE is known for
bleach and not for animals?”
Reason for Disgust
22
Examples of What DOESN’T WORK: Unnecessary , Gimmicky
“It sounds too much like a
gimmick / scam.”
Reason for Disgust
“A comb / brush is going to
cure dandruff – yeah right.”
Reason for Contempt
“Not so useful and
hard to use.”
Reason for Neutrality
“It’s silly looking and wouldn’t
hold much, also awkward
angle to pull out tissue.”
Reason for Contempt
23
Other Considerations &
One Pager
24
Other Considerations
1 To brand or not to brand?
Either works. If the commercial path is
certain, test branded ideas. Conversely,
if the ideas are disruptive vs. today’s
equity, un-branding allows a clean read.
2 Niche or too small?
Before finalizing the idea for testing,
ask “who” immediately comes to mind
after hearing/reading about it. Does it
feel big enough? Could the benefit be
generalized? A simple “imagine if” tone
and imagery can help it feel broader.
Branded and unbranded concepts
perform similarly.
While Predictive Markets is great at
spotting niche potential, if the perceived
target feels too small, the idea will often
fail to excite.
3 Test without an insight
statement?
A powerful human insight should underpin
every concept. However, the statement
itself can deflate the power of an idea if it
fails to connect emotively.
Head & Shoulders: Oil Control
YES - especially if its emotive strength is
uncertain. Imply it within the core of the
idea rather than state it literally. Keep in
mind the statement isn’t needed in this
projective design!
“The basic idea of hair oily-ness
soon after a shower doesn’t sound
likely to me”
– Reason for Neutrality
25
Our Overarching Recommendation
Embrace the latest behavioral-science ‘truths’ and strive to
connect intuitively and emotionally vs. rationally.
Most human decisions are driven by the ‘System 1’ (fast,
emotive, instinctive) part of the brain!
26
… in summary
BrainJuicer Principles for System 1 Idea Creation
Show, don’t tell. Seduce, not persuade. Try to write it without RTBs. Think AD-cept.
Be NEW news. The idea should immediately feel new and different. Surprise people!
Make life easier. People yearn for the easiest route. Make it seem easy.
Use positive framing. Make people FEEL good, rewarded and appreciated.
Appropriate branding. Brand if it’s 100% certain or if it helps communicate the idea.
Ensure ideas is BIG enough. Ask, who will it feel for? Is this audience large enough
Test without an insight statement. Instead, imply within the idea itself.
Additional Meta Findings to Date
(March 2015)
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Categories Tested in Predictive Markets
Overall Brand, 6%
Baby, 2%
Home Care, 8%
Fem Care, 2%
Beauty, 41%
Food, 4%
Grooming, 6%
Health, 11%
Family Care, 10%
Fabric Care, 10%
29
Probably Buy Shares – By Country
P&G Average vs. All Client Average
80%
+3
+13
70%
+5
+4
-6
+1
60%
All client average
P&G average
+4
+5
+0
+0
-2
50%
-5
-1
40%
30%
20%
10%
Av
g)
AL
L(
az
il
Br
ss
ia
Ru
an
y
Ge
rm
an
Ja
p
ex
ic o
M
US
na
Ch
i
ry
Hu
ng
a
nc
e
*
Fr
a
ly
Ita
Gr
ee
ce
*
UK
0%
30
*Caution – Small sample size (under 30 studies)
Overall Emotional Ratings
P&G Average vs. All Client Average
 P&G ideas generally elicit similar projected emotive response to all client ideas tested via
Predictive Markets.
40%
All client average
P&G average
+1
+4
35%
30%
25%
20%
-2
15%
-1
10%
-2
5%
-1
+0
+0
Fear
Anger
0%
Surprise
Happy
Neutral
Sadness
Disgust
Contempt
31
Emotional Profile – 5-Star and 1-Star Ideas
P&G Average vs. All Client Average
 The issue of neutrality minimizing success is not unique to P&G, as it tends to be the
main obstacle to overcome across ALL clients
2.15
2.21
2
1
2
1
12
1.39
1.50
12
12
Intensity Score
on scale 0 to +3
Contempt
Disgust
13
5
1
2
2
7
Anger
1
2
3
Fear
Sadness
39
67
Neutral
33
Happiness
65
Surprise
27
18
P&G 5-Star
19
All Client 5-Star
27
13
15
P&G 1-Star
All Client 1-Star
32
Probably Buy Shares – By Country
Measure of absolute appeal
1. Probably Buy Shares (PBS) – % who
probably would invest in each idea
(absolute appeal)
 Star ratings implemented in 2012
 In order to analyze ALL ideas (post-dating 2012), we examined
data on Probably Buy Shares (PBS), which is asked in all studies
 In most countries, P&G’s
PBS rating is a bit
stronger than average.
 Generally, ideas tested
in South & East Europe
tend to fare better than
average.
 Ideas tested in France,
Russia, & Brazil tend to
fall a bit lower than
typical.
33
*Caution – Small sample size (under 30 studies)
Probably Buy Shares – By Pricing & Branding Inclusion
P&G Average vs. All Client Average
 Priced ideas tend to fare better for P&G as pricing can give more context to the consumer
in buying decisions
 Branding inclusion slightly increases the success of an idea for P&G
70%
70%
+12
+9
+6
60%
60%
+4
50%
50%
40%
All client average
40%
All client average
30%
P&G average
30%
P&G average
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
Priced
Unpriced
Branded
Unbranded
34
Probably Buy Shares – By Idea Content
P&G Average vs. All Client Average
 Differences in response indicate to a degree that more successful ideas include a pack
shot and words together over words alone.
70%
+14
+11
+9
+8
60%
+3
50%
40%
All client average
P&G average
30%
20%
10%
0%
pack shot only*
words + pack shot
words + pack shot +
mood images
words + mood
images
words only
35
*Caution – Small sample size (under 30 studies)
P&G Star Rating Distribution (vs. all clients)
Star Level
P&G
All Clients*
Difference
45%
50%
-5%
28%
25%
3%
14%
10%
4%
10%
10%
0%
3%
5%
-2%
*Based off all ideas tested in BrainJuicer Predictive Markets database
Note: P&G ideas account for 3% of all ideas in BrainJuicer’s Predictive Markets database
36
Methodology Overview
37
Sampling philosophy rooted in the Wisdom of the Crowd
Statistician Francis
Galton unexpectedly
discovered crowds
are wise.
The Wisdom of Crowds
The crowd is wise when it is Diverse,
Independent & Faithfully Aggregated
James Surowiecki (2004)
IEM predictions for 30
years are more
accurate than the
most accurate opinion
poll 75% of the time.
38
From ME to WE research
We are self deceit machines
Yet, good at anticipating the
behavior of others
39
ME to WE Research  applied in Predictive Markets
to Screen and Optimize Ideas
 A large crowd (500) tells us which ideas (or variations
of ideas) they’d invest in
2007
2005
 “Me to WE” – asks how market will react, not
personal intent or preference
Award
Winner
Monadic ‘intention’ scores
35
100
Net Preference
Most Successful - would double shares
Least Successful - would sell shares
22
90
25
15
-13
2
Proven accuracy
Better discrimination
% of respondents
19
1
17
5
-5
80
7
4
-9
-7
-7
13
7
7
70
-24
60
6
50
-3
-10
-14
40
-26
-15
30
-30
20
-25
10
3
4
Spots breakthrough ideas
-35
0
Concept 1
Concept 2
Concept 3
Concept 4
Concept 5
Concept 6
Concept 7
40
Faster, cost effective, broadly applicable
Sequential Monadic % Def/Prob
12
31
How it Works
‘Imagine you owned shares in all these ideas...’
Respondents are asked to
imagine that they owned shares
in the ideas being tested and
then asked to identify those
ideas in which they would buy
additional shares and those in
which they would sell shares.
To identify the most successful
and least successful ideas, they
are then asked to choose one
concept in which they would
double their shares and one in
which they would sell all of
their shares, thus separating
the wheat from the chaff.
41
FaceTrace Reveals Predicted Gut, Emotional Response
Emotional Intensity Score measured
on a scale from 0 to +3
1
2.10
Contempt
Disgust
6
1
Silly!
14
Anger
Which of these faces
best expresses how
people will feel about
this idea?
I really like this –
great idea
Fear
53
Sadness
Brilliant
2
To what degree will this
idea make people feel
[selected emotion]?
Neutral
Happiness
26
Surprise
IDEA
This is so
awesome! Was
not expecting this!
3
And why do you think
this idea will make
people feel this way?
42
The Star Rating:
Three Key Measures inform Business Potential
High Loss
Risk
Low
Returns
Solid
Investment
Market
Beater
Next Big
Thing
1.
1 Probably Buy Shares – absolute appeal
versus country norm
2.
2 Net Preference – relative appeal and level
of energy
3.
3 Emotion-into-Action – summary of
emotional response from FaceTrace®
-
Weighting given to each emotion is based on the
relationship observed between that emotion and
in-market performance.
43
Teri Hall
Senior Vice President
BrainJuicer Midwest
+1 513 375 8059
teri.hall@brainjuicer.com
Meg Reardon
Vice President
BrainJuicer Midwest
+1 708 218 0338
meg.reardon@brainjuicer.com