RETHINKING DIALOGUE IN
CONFLICT RESOLUTION
PROMOTING STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT
AND AGONISTIC DIALOGUE WHEN
CONFLICT RESOLUTION FAILS
WHAT IS CONFLICT RESOLUTION?
WORLD WAR I, WORLD WAR II, AND THE
ORIGINS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION
CONFLICT RESOLUTION AND
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: A
COMPARISON
MULTI-LEVEL
MULTI-DISCIPLINARY
MULTI-CULTURAL
ANALYTIC AND NORMATIVE
THEORY AND PRACTICE
SECOND ORDER SOCIAL
LEARNING
ACKNOWLEDGE
UNDERSTAND
ADAPT
RESPONDING TO SETBACKS
WHEN THEORY FAILS, BACK TO PRACTICE
WHEN PRACTICE FAILS, CHANGE THE THEORY
CHANGING WORLD ORDERS
1945-1990
BI-POLAR WORLD
1990-1996
NEW WORLD ORDER
1997-2003
UNI-POLAR MOMENT
2004-2009
MULTI-POLAR WORLD
2010-2015
?????
DATA, INTERPRETATION, RESPONSE
CONVERGENCE OF DATA SETS
TRANSNATIONAL CONFLICT
COSMOPOLITAN CONFLICT
RESOLUTION
CONFLICT RESOLUTION
PEACEFUL MANAGEMENT
SETTLEMENT
TRANSFORMATION
COMMUNICATIVE APPROACHES
IN CONFLICT RESOLUTION
NEGOTIATION FOR POLITICAL ACCOMMODATION
INTERACTIVE PROBLEM SOLVING
DIALOGUE FOR MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING
TEST CASES 2014
GAZA
UKRAINE
AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN
SYRIA/IRAQ
THE TURN TO CONFLICT
ENGAGEMENT
CONFLICT ENGAGEMENT AS PLACEHOLDER
COMMUNICATIVE IMPEDIMENTS
LINGUISTIC INTRACTABILITY
RADICAL DISAGREEMENT
AGONISTIC DIALOGUE
WHEN THEORY FAILS, BACK TO
PRACTICE
EXPLORING AGONISTIC DIALOGUE
CONFLICT PARTIES ARE, NOT NEARER BUT MUCH FURTHER APART
THERE IS NO THEORY OF RADICAL DISAGREEMENT
REDUCTIONIST READINGS IN THE
SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCES
RATIONALIZATIONS OF POLITICAL INTEREST
SOCIO-LINGUISTIC CONSTRUCTIONS
PSYCHOLOGICAL PROJECTIONS
HISTORICAL-CULTURAL POSITS
SUBJECTIVE NARRATIVES
WHEN PRACTICE FAILS, CHANGE
THE THEORY
PROMOTE STRATEGIC THINKING WITHIN CONFLICT PARTIES
PROMOTE STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT ACROSS CONFLICT PARTIES
CLARIFY THE ROLES OF THIRD PARTIES
EXAMPLES
ISRAELI STRATEGIC FORUM
PALESTINE STRATEGY GROUP
PALESTINIAN CITIZENS OF ISRAEL GROUP
MOTIVE TO ENGAGE
WHY SHOULD CONFLICT PARTIES WANT TO ENGAGE IN STRATEGIC
THINKING WHEN THEY ARE NOT READY FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION?
CONFLICT ENGAGEMENT AS
PLACEHOLDER
HOW CAN STRATEGIC THINKING THAT AIMS TO WIN BE A
PLACEHOLDER FOR A REVIVAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION?
STRATEGIC THINKING AND
STRATEGIC PLANNING
PUBLIC STRATEGIC THINKING
PRIVATE STRATEGIC PLANNING/PUBLIC MANIPULATION
PRINCIPLED NEGOTIATION AND
STRATEGIC NEGOTIATION
STRATEGIC NEGOTIATION REQUIREMENTS AS
PREREQUISITES FOR PRINCIPLED NEGOTIATION
STRATEGIC NEGOTIATION
REQUIREMENTS
• All parties must conclude that entering
negotiations is better for them than not entering
negotiations.
• All parties must conclude that reaching
agreement is better for them than not reaching
agreement.
• All parties must conclude that implementing
agreement is better for them than not
implementing agreement.
STRATEGIC SCENARIOS
(a simplified expository template)
Scenario (a)
A genuinely independent Palestinian state as internationally agreed.
Scenario (b)
Permanent effective Israeli control over the whole of historic Palestine.
Scenario (c)
Indefinite continuation of the status quo – incremental Israeli settlement in
the West Bank and international life-support for an otherwise unviable
Palestinian Authority.
WHAT WAS THE US SECRETARY OF
STATE’S NEGOTIATION STRATEGY?
• What was his strategic goal?
• What was his strategy for managing asymmetry?
• What was his strategy for influencing Israeli
calculations of relative strategic risk?
• What was his strategy for managing Palestinian
objections to the negotiation process?
• What was his strategy in case of initial
agreement?
• What was his strategy in case of failure? Did he
(does he) have a Plan (B)?