Διεθνή Χαρτοφυλάκια βάσει Επενδυτικών Στρατηγικών
Epic ΑΕΠΕΥ
Institutional-Quality Investment Portfolios
Επενδυτικά Χ/Φ για Θεσμικούς & Επαγγελματίες Επενδυτές*
Expressly brought to you from a Certified Investment Advisor
Διάθεση μόνο μέσω Πιστοποιημένων Συμβούλων Επενδύσεων
EpiCosmos ™ Investment Folios are based on DFA Funds
Με βάση τα Θεσμικά Αμοιβαία Κεφάλαια της DFA Funds
ΑΝΟΙΞΗ 2012
New EpiCosmos
Global Strategy Folios
• What kind of investing is it
• Τι είδους επένδυση είναι τα EpiCosmos ™
• Where does it invest
• Που επενδύουν τα EpiCosmos ™
• Who is the investment manager
• Ποιός είναι ο Διαχειριστής Επενδύσεων
• When is it reviewed for change
• Πόσο συχνά αναδιαρθρώνονται
• How much does it cost
• Πόσο κοστίζουν οι συμβουλές
• Πόσο κοστίζει η διαχείριση
Strategy-based Portfolio Investments
Διεθνής Επενδυτική Στρατηγική
Regional/International/Global
Περιφερειακά, Διεθνώς, Παγκοσμίως
Institutional
– type, low cost funds
Θεσμικός με Α/Κ χαμηλού κόστους
Rebalancing at least once a year
Τριμηνιαία ή τουλάχιστον ετησίως
0.50% advice, up to 0.50% TER funds
0.50%
ετησίως επί της ΚΑ του Χ/Φ
0.25% έως 0.75% επί του ΚΕ του Α/Κ
• Our Investment Advisory Pledge
• Η δήλωση/δέσμευση της Epic ΑΕΠΕΥ
• Scientific (risk factor, asset class) Investing
• Επιστημονικά τεκμηριωμένη διαχείριση Χ/Φ βάσει των διαχρονικών
αποδόσεων των κινδύνων από τις επενδυτικές κλάσεις παγκοσμίως
• Our Investment Philosophy, Principles and Process
• Επενδυτική Φιλοσοφία, Αρχές, Διαδικασία Διαχείρισης Επενδύσεων
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Δήλωση Συμβολής Επενδυτικού Συμβούλου
An advisor can help you understand investment concepts
Ο Σύμβουλος μπορεί να εξηγήσει επενδυτικές ιδέες diversify investments globally
διαρθρώσει το Χ/Φ παγκοσμίως maintain investment discipline
διατηρήσει επενδυτική πειθαρχία keep investment costs low
διακρατήσει κόστη πολύ χαμηλά preserve your wealth in capital
διαφυλάξει επενδυτικά κεφάλαια
Charge you
Χρεώνει
Provide you
Παρέχει
Allow you
Επιτρέπει a fee rather than a commission
βάσει αξίας και όχι συναλλαγών independent investment solutions
ανεξάρτητες επενδυτικές λύσεις access to asset class investing
πρόσβαση στην επαγγελματική διαχείριση
χαρτοφυλακίων βάσει επενδυτικών κλάσεων
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Έννοιες Επιστημονικής Διαχείρισης Επενδύσεων
•
Markets work by allocating risks
το to factors that earn returns over various horizons
• Οι Κεφαλαιαγορές επιτρέπουν τη διασπορά σε κινδύνους με διαφορετικό ορίζοντα
•
Returns run from low levels (cash) to high levels (equities)
• Κέρδη κειμένονται από χαμηλά (ρευστά - κοντινά) έως υψηλά (μετοχές - μακρινά)
• Risks rewarded are identified as follows : Κίνδυνοι που εξηγούν τις αποδόσεις είναι
– EQUITIES capitalization
Κεφαλαιοποίηση
= small to large size companies price/valuation
Αποτίμηση
= low (value) to high (growth)
– BONDEBTS duration Διάρκεια = short ( up to 3yrs) to long credit quality Πιστοληπτική θέση = high (good) to low (junk)
– COMMON liquidity, volatility, momentum
= all 3 range from low to high
Ρευστότητα, Διακύμανση/Μεταβλητότητα, Δυναμική Αποδόσεων
• Loss suffering worse than missing returns for investors
• Απώλεια κεφαλαίων χειρότερη από την απώλεια αποδόσεων για τον επενδυτή
• Portfolio Allocation = Diversification = Investment Policy
• Διασπορά Χ/Φ = Διάρθρωση = Επενδυτική Πολιτική (η πιο σημαντική απόφαση)
• Portfolio Selection = Structure = Investment Strategy
• Επιλογές Χ/Φ = Δομή = Επενδυτική Στρατηγική (όλες οι πιο σημαντικές επιλογές)
•
Trade Timing = Risk Rebalancing = Investment Tactics
• Χρονισμός Χ/Φ = Αναδιάρθρωση Κινδύνου = Επενδυτική Τακτική (αναδιάρθρωση)
•
Cost Control = can increase investment returns over time
Έλεγχος εξόδων διαχείρισης Χ/Φ = αυξάνει συστηματικά τις αποδόσεις διαχρονικά
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INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES
Diversification Διασπορά
Market Efficiencies Αποτελεσματικότητα των Αγορών
Risk/Return relationship Σχέση Απόδοσης / Κινδύνου
Long term investment principle Μακροπρόθεσμοι Ορίζοντες
Investment expense/cost considerations Χαμηλά Κόστη Διαχείρισης
Investment Theory & Practice = MPT, CAPM, OT Θεωρία & Πρακτική abc Active-Benchmark-Class = Investment Management Επενδυτικές Φιλοσοφίες
Ενεργή, Παθητική (Δείκτη), Κλασική (Κατηγοριοποιημένη βάσει κλάσεων)
Investment Principles = Investment Philosophy = Investment Process
Επενδυτικές Αρχές = Επενδυτική Φιλοσοφία = Επενδυτική Διαδικασία
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INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY
5 long (time, diversification, small, value, liquidity)
Θέσεις μακροπρόθεσμες, με διασπορά σε μικρές, φθηνές, εύκολα ρευστοποιήσιμες αξίες
4 even (Policy = Asset Allocation) ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ
(Strategy = Security Selection) ΣΤΡΑΤΗΓΙΚΗ
(Tactics = Trade Timing) ΤΑΚΤΙΚΗ
(Optimization = Risk vs. Return) ΒΕΛΤΙΣΤΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ
3 short (volatility, momentum, irrational behavior)
Μακριά από διακυμάνσεις (μεταβλητότητα), δυναμική, μη ορθολογική συμπεριφορά
2 Investing = flexible but disciplined process
Επένδυση = ευέλικτη αλλά πειθαρχειμένη διαδικασία
1 You and the market = must be one
Ταύτιση Επενδυτή & Αγορών
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Investment Process
1. Markets work the way they do for your Asset (Allocation) Class (Investing) always
Οι Αγορές συμπεριφέρονται με τον τρόπο τους που επιβάλλει τη διασπορά Χ/Φ
2. Investing is not like speculative trading and must limit non-systematic risks
Επένδυση, χωρίς κερδοσκοπία και χαμηλό ειδικό, μη συστηματικό κίνδυνο
3. Rational behavior is required to control Fear and get Clarity, Power, Wisdom
Ορθολογική συμπεριφορά απαιτείται για τον καλύτερο έλεγχο του όποιου φόβου
με σκοπό την καλύτερη σαφήνεια, εξουσία και σοφία επί επενδυτικών θεμάτων
4. Some investment risks are worth taking and can be assumed in the portfolio
Κάποιοι επενδυτικοί κίνδυνοι αξίζουν όταν προσφέρουν ‘λογικές’ αποδόσεις
5. Investment strategy and folio structure Στρατηγική & Δομή πάντοτε
6. Smart trading can offer return rewards ‘Εξυπνες’ συναλλαγές και μόνο
Η φθηνή διαχείριση προτιμάται 7. Cost discipline pays off ceteris paribus
8. Long term horizons required for returns Μακρο-ορίζοντες απαιτούνται
EpiCosmos™ folios: global strategy (risk model) based investments
Εpic Επενδυτικές Υπηρεσίες ΑΕΠΕΥ
Εσπέρου 96, 14564 Κηφισιά
Τηλ: 210 7798510 Φαξ: 210 7777621 email: epic@epic.gr
Δικτυακός τόπος: www.epic.gr
Disclaimers
Copyright DFA 2011. Unpublished. All rights reserved. This information may only be used for internal use, may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. This information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use it may make or permit to be made of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall DFA, any of its affiliates or any other person involved in or related to compiling, computing, or creating this information have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential, or any other damages (including, without limitation, lost profits) even if notified of, or if it might otherwise have anticipated, the possibility of such damages.
Copyright MSCI 2011. Unpublished. All rights reserved. This information may only be used for internal use, may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used to create any financial instruments or products or any indices. This information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use it may make or permit to be made of this information. Neither MSCI, any of its affiliates, nor any other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating this information makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such information or the results to be obtained by the use thereof, and
MSCI, its affiliates, and each such other person hereby expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any other person involved in or related to compiling, computing, or creating this information have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential, or any other damages (including, without limitation, lost profits) even if notified of, or if it might otherwise have anticipated, the possibility of such damages.
US Large Cap Returns
1996-2010
16
14
12
Annualized Compound Return (%)
S&P 500 Index
CRSP 1-10 Index
Morningstar Fund Average
6.76
7.18
6.63
10
8
6
4
CRSP 1-10 Index
S&P 500 Index
Morningstar Fund Average
2
0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475
Number of Funds
Source: Morningstar data provided by Morningstar Inc. Includes all Morningstar US large cap funds with fifteen-year returns, distinct portfolios only, as of
December 31, 2010. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices,
University of Chicago.
Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money.
The Capital Asset Pricing Model … provides the paramount reason to diversify
William Sharpe: Nobel Prize in Economics, 1990
Total Equity Risk
Company
Risk
Unsystematic
Industry
Risk
Unsystematic Risk is:
• Specific to firm or industry (lawsuit, fraud, etc.).
• Diversifiable by investors.
• Not compensated to investors.
• Targeted by speculators
Market Risk Systematic
Systematic Risk is:
• Market-wide, affects all firms (war, recession, inflation, etc.).
• Non-diversifiable by investors.
• Compensated to investors.
• Measured by the beta factor.
Beta measures volatility relative to the total market. A beta higher than the market’s beta of 1 implies more volatility, and a beta lower than the market’s implies less volatility.
Portfolio Strategy = Portfolio Structure determines Performance
•
•
Over 96% of the variation in returns is due to risk factor exposure.
After fees, traditional management typically reduces returns.
96% Structured
Exposure to Factors.
• Market.
• Size.
• Value/Growth.
4% Unexplained Variation
THE MODEL TELLS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INVESTING AND SPECULATING average expected return
[minus T-bills]
= average excess return
+ sensitivity to market
[market return minus T-bills]
+ sensitivity to size
[small stocks minus big stocks]
+ sensitivity to BtM
[value stocks minus growth]
+ random error e(t)
•
•
•
•
•
Priced Risk
Positive expected return.
Systematic.
Economic.
Long-term.
Investing.
•
•
•
•
Un-priced Risk
Noise.
Random.
Short-term.
Speculating.
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors study (2002) of 44 institutional equity pension plans with $452 billion total assets.
Factor analysis run over various time periods, averaging nine years. Total assets based on total plan dollar amounts as of year end 2001.
Average explanatory power (R 2 ) is for the Fama/French equity benchmark universe.
Five Factors Help Determine Expected Return
Annual Average Returns
1927 –2010
8.04%
3.75%
4.90%
Market
Factor
All Equity
Universe minus T-Bills
Size
Factor
Small Stocks minus
Large Stocks
BtM
Factor
High BtM minus
Low BtM
Equity factors provided by Fama/French. Fixed factors provided by Ibbotson Associates.
Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
2.11%
Maturity
Factor
LT Govt.
minus
T-Bills
0.30%
Default
Factor
LT Corp.
minus
LT Govt.
The Risk Dimensions Delivered
July1926 –December 2010
OVERLAPPING PERIODS
US Value vs. US Growth US Small vs. US Large
Periods based on rolling annualized returns. 715 total 25-year periods. 775 total 20-year periods.
835 total 15-year periods. 895 total 10-year periods. 955 total 5-year periods.
Performance based on Fama/French Research Factors. Securities of small companies are often less liquid than those of large companies.
As a result, small company stocks may fluctuate relatively more in price. Mutual funds distributed by DFA Securities LLC.
The Risk Dimensions Delivered
OVERLAPPING PERIODS
January 1975 –December 2010
International Value vs. International Growth
January 1970 –December 2010
International Small vs. International Large
Based on rolling annualized returns. Rolling multi-year periods overlap and are not independent. This statistical dependence must be considered when assessing the reliability of long-horizon return differences.
International Value vs. International Growth data: 133 overlapping 25-year periods. 193 overlapping 20-year periods. 253 overlapping 15-year periods. 313 overlapping 10-year periods. 373 overlapping 5-year periods. International Small vs. International Large data: 193 overlapping 25-year periods. 253 overlapping 20-year periods. 313 overlapping 15-year periods. 373 overlapping 10-year periods. 433 overlapping 5-year periods. International Value and
Growth data provided by Fama/French from Bloomberg and MSCI securities data. International Small data compiled by Dimensional from Bloomberg,
StyleResearch, London Business School, and Nomura Securities data. International Large is MSCI World ex USA Index gross of foreign withholding taxes on dividends; copyright MSCI 2011, all rights reserved.
The Importance of Long-Term Discipline
Annualized Compound Returns (%)
S&P 500 Index
One-Month US Treasury Bills
1926-2010
9.87
3.62
1965-1981
6.33
6.66
1982-2010
11.30
4.81
The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. One-Month US Treasury Bills data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation
Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).
For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money.
Value Added: Efficient Market Investing
Asset Class Management
•Grounded in the efficiency of capital markets.
•Captures specific dimensions of risk identified by academic research.
•Minimizes transaction costs and enhances returns through trading and engineering.
Active Management
•Attempts to beat the market through security selection and market timing.
•Undermines asset class exposure to keep up with the most “promising” securities.
•Generates higher fees, trading costs, and tax consequences due to increased turnover.
Index Management
•Accepts asset class returns.
• Allows commercial benchmarks to define strategy.
•Sacrifices transaction costs and turnover in favor of tracking.