Bargaining and Psychology
Lecture Two:
Preferences, Beliefs, and Lies
Keith Chen, Nov 10th 2004
Plan of Action Today:
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Last time, talked about Fairness and Salience
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Today, Basic departures from “rational” beliefs and
preferences.
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Biased Beliefs:
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Biased Preferences:
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Beliefs about you, others, credit and blame
Beliefs about events and values.
Framing
Reference points, gains & losses.
Lies and Deception
Biased Beliefs:
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Beliefs about you & others:
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Correspondence Bias / Fundamental
Attribution Error.
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People have a tendency to over-attribute the
behavior of others to dispositional traits, and
ignore situational forces.
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Broad Example of situational importance
Genovese 30 min, 38 people
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More Specific Examples:
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Prompted Lectures, SES Des. From last time
Correspondence Bias
Perceive
the situation
Create
behavior
expectation
Perceive
the behavior
Attribute
the behavior
Unrealistic Expectations
“Even when the observer is perfectly well aware of the actor’s
situation, his or her expectations for behavior in that situation
may be unrealistic.”
Incomplete Corrections
“Observers are unwilling or unable to correct the dispositional
inferences that they seem to draw with relative spontaneity and
ease.”
Value and Risk of BATNA
Morris,
Larrick & Su
High Value BATNA
Low Value BATNA
Certain BATNA
Risky BATNA
Low Agreeableness
Low Agreeableness
High Emotional Stability
Low Emotional Stability
High Agreeableness
High Agreeableness
High Emotional Stability
Low Emotional Stability
Combined with Other Biases
•
FAE can be especially dangerous to
agreement when:
1. Combined with False Consensus, can produce
naïve realism.
2. Tends to create situations in which common
information revelation can be BAD,
• Many examples, especially in politics.
Biased Beliefs:
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Overconfidence:
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Contrast this with false-consensus & naïverealism effect.
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Consistent with False Consensus?
Club West Example.
When Exceptionalism?
Both examples of Self-Serving Bias.
Biased Belief Formation:
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Confirmatory Bias:
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Fuzzy-screen example:
See this in search behavior
Leads to things like hot-hands fallacy
Tends to self-reinforce other biases
Causes beliefs to diverge:
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Media and the Middle East
Clues as to the source: affirmation and these
biases.
Biased Preferences:
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Framing, Reference Points, Gains & Losses
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Reference Point Effects:
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Anchoring
Gains, Losses and Narrow Framing
Now, when we get back from break:
Lies and the Lying Liars who tell them.
What Makes a Lie?
• Intent important: The will to conceal or
mislead crucial
• Notification
– Key that it is not an understood deception
– We often give implicit consent
• Concealment
– Produces many of the same clues.
What is not a Lie?
• Secrecy- notification
• Broken promise- if no intent to break
• Failure to remember (an honest one)
• Self-deceit
– Cancer patient example
– NASA Challenger example
• Natural liar/natural performer
Techniques of Lying
• Telling a false statement
• Telling the truth falsely
• Telling half truth
• Incorrect inference dodge
Why Lies Fail
• Inadequate Preparation - Consistency
– Liars who don’t plan their line or are unprepared to
answer questions are likely to be exposed
– Can become overrehersed
– Skillful liars don’t overcorrect (Clifford Irving)
• Emotions
– Hard to express unfelt emotions / conceal true
feelings
Common Emotions of Lying
• Fear of being caught
– See this in Lie-detector protocols
– Be careful of Othello's error
• Guilt
• Duping Delight
– The pleasure and excitement of “putting one over”
Leakage: Clues & Signs
• Hard to suppress strong emotions: Emblems
– Shows on face, posture, shoulders & hands
– Often covered up by actions
• Facial expressions
– Masking smiles: in the eyes
– Leaking in eyes and lip.
• Vocal Clues
– Increase in pitch often accompanies lies / strong emotions
– Pause speech or slips: when trying to not say something
• Gestures- “Illustrators”
– Liars use fewer (less natural) hand or non-verbal gestures