Government and Politics of the USA
Week 4 HT:
Political Parties (contd)
----US Elections
Dr Simon Boucher ~ bouches@tcd.ie
Introducing Andrew Glencross
Lecturing handover
• Dr Andrew Glencross will take
over lecturing from week 6
Hilary Term till week 1 of Trinity
Term
• I’ll retains overall responsibility
for the course, and will remain
accessible via email
• I’ll return in week 2 of Trinity
Term for the final few weeks of
the year
Hillary Term Essay
• Deadline: 5pm, Monday 10th of March (Hillary term wk 10)
• Submit essay online via www.turnitin.com and hard copy to
• Jane
WhatSuiter
does this means for
Obama?
• Choose from 1 of 3 titles; strict 2,000 word limit…
• –What
does this means for
“In practice, Congress functions not as a unified institution,
Hillary?
but as a collection of semi-autonomous committees that
seldom
actthis
in unison“.
Discuss
this view, and explain your
• What
does
means
for
response.
Edwards?
– What are the consequences of pluralism and federalism for
the policy-making process in the US? Evaluate these
consequences with reference to at least two policy areas.
– Discuss the role played by money in US Presidential
elections. Elaborate your response in the context of attempts
at campaign finance reform since the 1970s and the 2008
Presidential election.
• Details on course website http://uspoliticstcd.pbwiki.com/Course-assessment
Student Politics Society Event
US Presidential Elections for Dummies
Tuesday 29th of January, 7.30pm Emmet Theatre
Speakers…
•
•
•
•
Robert Faucher: US Deputy Ambassador to Ireland
Dr Patrick Geoghan: Dept of History
Dr Andrew Glencross: Dept of Political Science
Me…
The Democrats this week
South
Carolina
• A week dominated by Bill Clinton,
Obama
Race, and the economy
55
• SC turnout was “enormous”
Clinton
27
• Obama “routed” Hillary in SC.
Edwards
18
Obama-mania is back on track!
• Hillary expected to lose SC, but not like this. Have the
Clintons overplayed hardball? She’s still ahead in big
Super Tuesday states, but a week’s a long time in politics…
• Local boy Edwards was a distant 3rd… $’s running out?
• Watch out for high-profile endorsements
• Florida (Jan 29th) could provide some momentum ahead of
Super Tuesday, but no campaigning and no delegates
The Republicans this week
It’s the economy, stupid
• Maybe you can buy an election?... The return
of Mitt Romney, innovative businessman
• Fred Thompson bows out, endorses nobody.
Who benefits?
• Florida (Jan 29th) is the pivotal GOP primary.
Will decide Rudy’s campaign, plus establish
Super Tuesday front runner (although only half
of Florida’s delegates are available in 2008)
Super Tuesday
24 states hold caucuses
or primaries on Feb 5th
• 52% of Democrat delegates, 41% of
Republicans up for grabs
• Represents 1st genuine test of national electability
• Organisation and money crucial
• Media coverage over next 7 days hugely influential
• A convincing win on either side would almost guarantee
nomination
• If nominees become clear, longest Presidential
campaign in history will begin. If either race remains
tight, could go all the way to the convention(s)
American Elections
Readings on US Elections
Required reading…
• McKay: ch 6: “Elections and Political Participation”
• Singh (ed) ch 6: “Elections”
• McKay, Houghton, Wroe: ch 4: “Campaign Finance Reform”
Additional resources…
• Edwin D Dover, The Disputed Presidential Election of 2000
• Mark Halperin and John F Harris The Way to Win: Taking the White
House in 2008.
• Gary C Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections. Paul S
Hernson, Congressional Elections: Campaigning at Home and in
Washington
• Walter Dean Burnham, Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of
American Politics.
• David R Mayhew, Electoral Realignments
• Thomas M Holbrook, Do Campaigns Matter?
How Democratic is America?
“A country’s claim being a democracy depends
almost entirely on the nature and extent
of public participation in political life”.
• Framers’ view of democracy extremely limited
• Would be shocked by today: 530,000 Americans
hold elected offices
• Americans vote to choose candidates, as well as
choose between candidates
• “Direct democracy” devices increasingly popular
But is a country with such low electoral turnout
and so influenced by money truly democratic?
Constitutional and Legal Foundation
• Articles 1, 2 and various
amendments loosely define
federal election methods
• State law regulates most
aspects of electoral law
• Financing a controversial
subject, monitored by Federal
Elections Commission
Voting in America
• Basic eligibility set by the
Constitution
• State Legislatures set
more detailed criteria
• Voter registration is the
responsibility of citizens
• Most federal voting now
done via optical scan
computers
Presidential Election Turnout
Why is turnout low?...
• Number of elections
• Voter registration laws
• First-past-the-post, singlemember per district
electoral system
• Congressional election
turnout considerably lower;
averaged 40% in same
period
But…
• Turnout is falling
everywhere
• Turnout not bad amongst
those registered to vote
Presidential Election Turnout
58
57.5
56
55.2
53.8
54
52
50 50.1
48
46
44
48.4
?
42
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Theoretical Explanations:
• Public choice theory
• Sociological explanation
Presidential Election Process
A four-step
process
PRE-PRIMARIES
Begin 2-3 years out
Ends 1 year before election
PRIMARY SEASON
Begins December before
the election, ends
April of election year
THE NOMINATION
Typically decided by
primaries, confirmed at
late summer Conventions
THE GENERAL ELECTION
From the Conventions
until November
Presidential Election Process
PRE-PRIMARIES
Begin 2-3 years out
Ends 1 year before election
A four-step
process
Key tasks are to…
- Develop name recognition
- Build organisation
- Win support of key party (and implicitly, media)
personnel - “king makers”
…Incumbents already have all this – therefore they
have huge advantages over challengers
Presidential Election Process
PRIMARY SEASON
Begins December before
the election, ends
April of election year
A four-step
process
• Since 1960s, party nominees selected based on state-by-state
series of “open or closed” primary elections and caucuses.
• The primary season has begun earlier and become more
compressed over time
• Partial public funding is available – if candidates want it
• Number of delegates available in each primary / caucus
based on state population
• Early states are disproportionately influential; trends become
clear on “Super Tuesday”
• In Democrat primaries, each candidate gets a number of
delegates proportional to their vote. Some GOP primaries are
proportional, others are winner-takes-all
Presidential Election Process
THE NOMINATION
Typically decided by
primaries, confirmed at
late summer Conventions
A four-step
process
• Conventions are held in late summer of election year; are
week-long meetings of state delegates and party leaders. Late
this year (Aug / Sept). Typically the opposition party goes first
• Formerly selected candidates (103 votes in Dem convention
in 1924), now ratify primary decisions - so candidates almost
always known beforehand
• Although conventions are now coronations they still set party
rules, establish the party platform, serve as an opportunity for
candidates to make their pitch to the nation, and motivate the
party faithful
• Candidates seek a “post-convention bounce”
Presidential Election Process
THE GENERAL ELECTION
From the Conventions
until November
A four-step
process
• Voting held nationwide on the first Tuesday in November
• Public funding is available for major candidates
• Is an indirect election – public votes state-by-state for 538
members of an “Electoral College”.
• Each state gets a number of electoral college votes equivalent
its total number of senators and members of congress
• In the General election 48 of 50 states are “winner takes all”
(Maine and Nebraska use PR)
• The system is criticised as candidates fight to win an electoral
college majority rather than a nationwide majority of votes
Partisanship and Ideology
Partisanship: Fervent support for a party
Ideology: A set of doctrines or beliefs
• Number of party identifiers declined in the 1960s and 1970s –
“de-alignment” rather than “re-alignment”?
• Neither party re-captured centre stage in mid 1970s and
phenomenon of “ticket-splitting” increased
• As voters became less partisan, they used criteria other
than party to determine how to vote – e.g. the candidate /
particular issues. Discernible electoral polarisation from
early 1990s – voters increasingly labelled themselves liberal
or conservative
• In response party policies became more coherently aligned,
presenting voters with clearer ideological choices. However
parties have had difficulty responding to issue voting, as it
undermines attempts to be broad, loose coalitions.
• Result: issue-based and candidate-based voting have gained
in importance independently of parties, often damaging their
party’s broader fortunes
Partisanship and Ideology
Partisanship: Fervent support for a party
Ideology: A set of doctrines or beliefs
• Centrism re-emerged as a successful strategy in 1996
and 2000
• However since 9/11, US politics is far more ideologically
charged and partisan. Rove’s “politics of the base”
• Most independents actually “partisan independents”?
• The US electorate is now much more polarised on social
and war issues, including civil rights and liberties, the
environment, family issues (e.g. childcare, abortion) and
the role of the US abroad
• This results in a very confrontational and abrasive
style of politics
Criticism of US Elections
• Disenfranchisement
– Voter registration
– Felons ineligible
• Technical problems
– Insufficient voting places
– Inefficient vote counting
– Out of date / improperly drawn
electoral rolls
• “Gerrymandered”
constituencies
The $1bn Election
• As with 2004, the 2008 race will be a
"$1 billion election"
• To be "taken seriously“, candidates
needed to raise at least $100m each
by the end of 2007
• As per Bush in 2004, several 2007
candidates have foregone public
funding during the primaries as it caps
their potential spending power at
$150m
• Nominees also very likely to forego
public funding for the general election
Campaign Finance Reform
The issue of CFR is centred around
whether wealthy individuals & groups
should be limited in the amount of
money they can spend in
trying to influence politics
• For most of US history, no spending limits on campaign contributions
however CFR has long history - 1907 Tillman Act, 1947 Taft-Hartley Act
• Watergate revealed huge individual contributions, rewarded by Nixon
• 1972- FECA ratified. Introduced disclosure of funding
• 1974- FECA enhanced. Ceilings on individual ($1k) & PAC ($5k)
contributions, public funding established, FEC created to enforce law
• 1976- SC ruled in Buckley vs Valeo that FECA too stringent. Limits on
direct contributions to candidates, but “expenditures made
independently of campaigns are a highly protected form of free speech”
• FECA also encouraged corporations and trade unions to set up own
PACs; PACs multiplied exponentially
Campaign Finance Reform
Hard money- financial donations given directly to a
particular candidate’s official campaign organisation
Soft money- given to a political party at national /
state / local for general usage. Wasn’t regulated by FEC
• FECA limited hard money, not soft money- limitless for
parties and PACs- a significant loophole as soft money
could still be channelled to particular candidates in
particular elections- achieved same purpose as hard money
• Opponents of reform argued the 1st Amendment (right to
free speech) allows them spend their money how they like
in political debate
• Main use of soft money today is “issue advertisements”;
fine provided don’t use non-exhaustive list of specific
wording
Campaign Finance Reform
McCain-Feingold Bill:
Co-sponsored & bipartisan.
Aimed to ban the use of
soft money in campaigns &
ban issue-advocacy advertising
• 1st version passed House in 1999 but beaten in the Senate
• Updated version proposed in 2001, passed in 2002
– Eliminated all soft money contributions to NC’s
– More than doubled the hard money contribution limit
• Upheld In 2003 by SC in McConnell v FEC, on a split
decision with conservatives in the minority
• Corset analogy: whenever reform squeeze cash
contributions in one place, they appear in another
Red State, Blue State?
Electoral College vote in 2004
Wyoming:
10th largest state
Population 490,000
New Jersey:
3rd smallest state
Population 8,400,000
Red State, Blue State?
America by Night
Red State, Blue State?
Electoral College Split by Population
Wyoming:
10th largest state
Population 490,000
New Jersey:
3rd smallest state
Population 8,400,000
Red State, Blue State?
Voting by County, 2004
Red State, Blue State?
Voting by County, taking population into account
Red State, Blue State?
The Electoral College may produce
a red state / blue state divide…
But the US is a far more differentiated place
than this suggests
American Electoral Participation
Who participates, and how, in US elections?
American electoral participation can be largely
predicted by basic demographics:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Race
Gender
Socio-economic status
Age
Geography
Community
How America voted: 2004
• Class, race, ethnic divisions etc are clearly
powerful predictors of electoral preferences
• These statistics become more powerful when
combined:
– A white, old, protestant, male, rich, rural voter very
likely to vote for Bush
– An Hispanic, young, atheist, female, poor, urban voter
was very likely to vote for Kerry
How America voted: 2004
Cleavage: Race
BUSH
KERRY
White men
62
37
White women
55
44
Non-white men
30
67
Non-white women
24
75
How America voted: 2004
Cleavage: Gender
BUSH
KERRY
Male
55
44
Female
48
51
How America voted: 2004
Cleavage: Income
BUSH
KERRY
Under $30k PA
39
61
$30-$50k PA
49
51
$50-75k PA
56
43
$75-$100k PA
55
45
$100-$200k PA
58
42
+$200k PA
63
35
How America voted: 2004
Cleavage: Age
BUSH
KERRY
18 – 29
45
54
30 – 44
53
46
45 – 59
51
48
60 +
54
46
How America voted: 2004
Cleavage: Religion
BUSH
KERRY
Protestant (54%)
59
40
Catholic (27%)
52
47
Jewish (3%)
25
74
Other (7%)
23
74
None (10%)
31
67
How America voted: 2004
Cleavage: Geography
BUSH
KERRY
North East
43
56
Mid West
51
48
South
58
42
West
49
50
How America voted: 2004
Cleavage: Community
BUSH
KERRY
Big cities (13%)
39
60
Small cities (19%)
49
49
Suburbs (45%)
52
47
Small towns (8%)
50
48
Rural (16%)
59
40