EFA Global
Monitoring Report
2 0 1 0
Reaching the
marginalized
Samer Al-Samarrai
Child Friendly Budgets for 2010
and Beyond Policy Forum
New York, 18-19 February
Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010
Education at risk: the impact of the financial crisis
 Despite progress world ‘off track’ to achieve EFA goals
 ‘Aftershock effects’ will hamper progress particularly for
marginalized groups:
– rising poverty and levels of malnutrition
– mounting fiscal pressures and slower economic growth
will limit education financing
– Increased aid vital for creating fiscal space but aid is under
threat.
Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010
Numbers of out-of-school children are declining,
but not fast enough
Out-of-school
children
(millions)
Out-of-school
children
120
105 million
4
8
6
Latin America and the Caribbean
Arab States
RestAsia
of the
World
East
and
the Pacific
100
72 million
80
Latin America and the Caribbean
Arab States
9 East Asia and the Pacific
South and West Asia
39 million
3
6
56 million
60
40
18
8 million
Sub-Saharan Africa
20
45 million
32
23 million
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
14
The case
of Nigeria
Ukraine
12
Average number of years of schooling
Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010
Education marginalization – inequalities within countries
Cuba
10 years
9.7 years
10
Bolivia
Indonesia
Richest 20%
Rural
Urban
10.3 years
Rich. rural boys
Rich. urban boys
Rich. rural girls
Boys
Girls
8
Honduras
6
4
Nigeria
Cameroon
6.7 years
Bangladesh
Urban
6.4 years
Education poverty
Poorest 20%
Chad
2
0
Poor. urban boys
3.5 years
Rural
3.3 years
Poor. rural girls
2.6 years
Extreme education poverty
Somalia
Rural Hausa
0.5 years
Poor. rural Hausa girls
0.3 years
Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010
Consequences of the crisis on education
 Increased levels of poverty and rising levels of
malnutrition will have irreversible
consequences in education:
– Undermines cognitive development and causes
irreversible losses in opportunities for learning
– Reductions in household spending on education
– Withdrawal of children from school
 Negative consequences likely to fall
disproportionately on the most vulnerable
Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010
Budget monitoring
 Little evidence that low-income countries cut
public spending in 2009
– Most countries in SSA planned increases in
expenditure on education
– Only two countries planned to cut education
expenditure (Benin and Ghana)
 …. but problems with monitoring
Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010
Economic growth matters for education financing
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
total change
in real primary
education spending
Change due to
GDP growth
Change due to
revenue
collection
Change due to
education
budget
allocation
Change due to
primary
education
budget allocation
1.0
Pre-crisis projections
0.0
Constant PPP 2006 US$ billions
Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010
Education financing could suffer from slower growth
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Total education spending
-4.0
Primary education
spending
-5.0
-6.0
2009
2010
Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010
Fiscal space constrained in most countries off-track
 Room for manoeuvre is limited
 Many countries with extremely limited fiscal
space furthest off track for achieving EFA
 Aid has the most immediate potential for
protecting social sector budgets
 Disbursements are rising, however commitments fell
by 22% in 2007, to US$4.3 billion.
Total aid to education
Constant 2007 US$ billions
Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010
Aid commitments to basic education –
a worrying picture
Total aid to basic education
12.3 12.1
12.0
9.5
8.2
3.2
7.6
7.9
3.2
3.4
3.4
10.4
4.5
9.9
5.6
4.0
5.5
4.3
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Commitments
Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2010
Rising to the EFA challenge
 Set equity-based targets for all EFA goals and monitor their
progress.
 Monitor early warning impacts – budgets, health/education
indicators, and vulnerable groups
 Changes in public spending need to be pro-poor. Increase
resource mobilization and strengthen equity in public
spending.
 Identify the drivers of marginalization for specific groups and
adopt integrated policies that address them.
 Scale up support for social protection to protect productive
assets, health and education
 Honour aid commitments and strengthen the multilateral
architecture for aid to education.
EFA Global
Monitoring Report
2 0 1 0
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