Overview of survey, data collection and
data analysis challenges
Jared Wilson
Marine Ornithologist
Overview of issues
• Survey Design
• Data Collection
• Data analysis
Survey Design
Information available from range of sources:
•
MMO (2014). Review of post-consent offshore wind farm monitoring data
associated with licence conditions.
•
Oedekoven, et al (2013). Statistical Modelling of Seabird and Cetacean data:
Literature Review
•
SNH (2011). Draft Guidance on Survey and Monitoring in Relation to Marine
Renewables Deployments in Scotland. Under revision?
•
Camphuysen, et al (2004) Towards standardised seabirds at sea census
techniques in connection with environmental impact assessments for offshore wind
farms in the U.K.: a comparison of ship and aerial sampling methods for marine
birds, and their applicability to offshore wind farm assessments.
Survey Design
ESAS methods
Kober, et al. 2010. JNCC Report 431.
Survey Design
COWRIE
Survey Design
Offshore wind issues relevant to ‘wets’:
•
Scale - appropriate to variability of metric
•
Effort - driven by the question, variability of metric, magnitude of change of interest
•
Effort - within development area often insufficient
•
Monitoring- to tie responses to specific causes
•
Transect spacing – default may not be appropriate
•
No. surveys - unlikely to allow a change to be detected
•
Control sites - unlikely to be appropriate
•
Imperfect detection - often ignored
•
Best practice - depends on species, site, metric, baseline variability, the question.
Survey Design
Issues apparent from ‘wet’ renewables projects
Survey Design
Sufficient effort in development site?
How much effort
is within lease
area?
Let alone the
likely development
footprint?
Survey Design
Is buffer relevant to lease area?
How similar are
environmental
conditions across
the survey area?
Survey Design
Post-hoc subdivision of survey area
How much
effort in each
sub-division
How does
coverage
probability and
effort vary across
sub-divisions?
A
B
C
X
D
F
E
Survey Design
Issues apparent from ‘wet’ renewables projects
Also:
• VP unit of effort often unclear/ poorly defined (not snap shot so flux
measurement?)
• Detectability decreases with distance from observer but often ignored.
• For VPs, distance from shore confounds increasing distance from observer
but often (always?) ignored.
• Question being addressed and metric to be recorded often unclear.
Data Collection
• VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded
Data Collection
• VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded
• Survey effort confounded?
What is true effort?
Data Collection
• VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded
• Survey effort confounded?
What is true effort?
Data Collection
• VP survey effort poorly/ inconsistently recorded
• Survey effort confounded
• Observers unclear on reasons for recording various aspects of
observations (especially effort).
Data Analysis
Data Analysis
• Imperfect detection
What is true distribution?
Detection probability
Data Analysis
• Imperfect detection
Confounding effect of increasing distance
from coast
What is true distribution?
Detection probability
Data Analysis
• Imperfect detection
• Uncertainty not presented
• Unclear whether survey effort appropriate (no power analysis)
• Post-hoc subdivision of survey area/effort
• Lack of clarity over analyses methods used
• Diagnostic outputs not presented so impossible to come to view on
methods used (including Distance analysis)
Data Analysis
MSS identified need for:
• Review of available methods
• Guidance on most appropriate statistical analysis of bird and marine
mammal data routinely collected
• Freely available software to allow appropriate analysis
Data Analysis
Clear need for guidance identified
MRSea
• Contract awarded to CREEM at University of St
Andrews in 2013.
• Completed August 2013
• Workshop held September 2013
• Methods review, Guidance and software package freely
available to download:
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/marine/marineenergy/Research/SB9
Summary
• Range of experience to inform survey design, data collection and
analysis.
• Increasing body of guidance exists
• Wave & Tidal Stream Energy sites have distinct challenges
• Methods are evolving (and need to continue to do so)
Any Questions?
Jared Wilson
Marine Ornithologist
jared.wilson@scotland.gsi.gov.uk