Solar Power Finance & Investment Club Energy Sector Senior Analyst: Saania Malik Junior Analysts: Alex Kazhmurat, Carlos Duchicela, Kim Tan, Sahil Bhaiwala & Yoyo Wong Fall 2014 Agenda Industry Definition Industry Summary Trends in the industry Risks to the Industry Multiples Value-Weighted Index Summary Recommendation 2 Industry Definition Companies in this industry own and operate solar-power-generating facilities in the form of either— photovoltaic (PV) panels solar thermal power stations that make use of mirrors or lenses to concentrate the sun's energy. >>Operators then sell the energy to downstream customers. Some companies have also diversified to own portfolios of solar assets and to provide financial services for other companies wishing to do the same. First Solar Inc. NASDAQ: FSLR Abengoa Yield Plc NASDAQ: ABY NextEra Energy Inc. NYSE: NEE NRG Yield Inc. NYSE: NYLD Sources: IbisWorld, Investext, Bloomberg Finance Ameresco Inc. NYSE: AMRC Canadian Solar Inc. NASDAQ: CSIQ TerraForm Power Inc. NASDAQ GS: TERP NextEra Energy Partners LP. NASDAQ: NEP 3 Industry Summary • • 2019e 2018e 2017e 2016e 2015e 2014e 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 • Revenue ($ million) 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 2003 • • Solar panel costs have dropped 80% from 2008 to 2012 Solar power’s ability to generate electricity with readily available resources and avoid CO2 emissions allow it favorable government and public support PV solar power generation is approaching grid parity in the US Industry Value Added is estimated at 30.9% over 10 years to 2019 (significantly outpacing GDP growth of 2.5%) Solar accounted for 53% of all new electric generation capacity added in H1 2014, whereas 30% came from natural gas, 14% from wind and none from coal Increasing investment from China, Japan, India and European nations allows potential for further innovation in this industry. By 2050, capacity to reach 3000 GW i.e. 11% of global electricity production 2002 • • Key Facts Primary Activity: solar-fueled power generation Major Market Segmentation (based on revenue contribution) Life-cycle Stage: Growth Revenue: $491.9 M Profit: $83.6 M Annual Growth: (09-14) = 70% (14-19) = 7.6% Industry Rating: Positive 30% 36% Utilities Commercial users Industrial users 34% Sources: IbisWorld, NASDAQ: Alternative Energy Stock Outlook (Feb 2014), Solar Energy Industries Association Characteristics: Decreasing operating costs High revenue volatility High capital intensity 4 Trend #1: Falling prices of photo-voltaic (PV) solar panels leading to lower costs and higher demand 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 '08 Q1 2012 -11.01 4.54 -1.12 17.71 2013 7.91 1.16 11.14 40.90 Cost savings from falling prices have been realized by some companies in the industry, whereas others still face volatile margins due to growth stage. But this leaves room for future upside potential. '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '13 Q1 '14 Q1 Regression: New PV Installations on PV Module Price 8000 7000 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 R-Squared: 0.8513 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 New Installed PV Capacity Key Takeaway '12 Q1 2011 2012 2013 $/W Canadian Solar Ameresco First Solar NRG Yield EBITDA Margins of Industry Operators 2008 2009 2010 2011 3.41 1.03 8.04 0.36 6.23 5.90 7.44 6.96 35.17 32.89 29.21 -2.48 13.99 17.07 Price ($/KG) • • Polysilicon Prices (2008 Q1 - 2014 Q1) Steep reduction in upstream costs as well as market maturation are driving down costs of industry operators Solar panel costs have dropped 80% from 2008 to 2012 Polysilicon prices, (which comprise 90% of panel inputs), decreased from $450/kg in 2008 to $20/kg in 2014 Q1 i.e. more than 20 times cheaper MW of Installed Capacity • 2014e Average PV Module Price Prices are expected to continue to drop an additional 6% throughout 2014 Technology efficiency as well as a reduction in upstream costs is leading to a decrease in cost for operators and an increase in solar power capacity, and thus an increase in demand. Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), Solar Energy Industries Association, Goldman Sachs: North American Energy Summit, GTM Research, International Energy Agency: Solar PV Energy, IEA 5 Trend #2: Financial tools to support investment in solar energy driving increase in installed capacity Solar accounted for 74% all new electric generation capacity added in Q1 2014 – Solar capacity reached 14.8 GW, enough to power 3 million homes Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)– allows small producers to generate power with third-party investment – No up-front cost of purchasing a PV system – Fixed energy rates YieldCos– allows firms to own clean energy assets in order to generate income to return to investors Billions of USD Federal investment tax credit (ITC) – allows write-off of 30% of taxes associated with building a plant – Expiring in 2016 to only 10% of taxes Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) require a certain percentage of energy (4-30%) generated by downstream utilities to be from a renewable source – 30 states have passed RPS Net metering: allows customers who supply their own electricity to receive credit on their utility bills by producing in excess of onsite usage – with a minimum bill enforced New Investment in Solar 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 56% 57% 53% 44% 27% 2004 37% 2008 2009 22% 25% 31% 35% 2005 2006 2007 New Investment in Solar 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total New Investment in Renewable Energy Tax Savings of Industry Operators (millions of USD) 2013 Ameresco NRG Yield First Solar 2012 2011 $3.6 91.25% $7 53.03% $6.2 36.47% $27 77.14% -- -- -- -- $93.34 24.70% $82.74 207.80% $66.3 123.50% Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Goldman Sachs: North American Energy Summit, Forbes: Clean Energy Yield Cos, IREC, International Energy Association, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), GTM Research, Solar Energy Information Association (SEIA), 6 Trend #2: Financial tools to support investment in solar energy driving increase in installed capacity US PV Installation by Segment (2010-16) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Residential 2012 Non-Residential 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2014E 2015E 2016E Utility 7308 4520 2700 2366 1144 Residential Non-Residential H1 '12 Key Takeaway 2013 Cumulative US Solar PV Installations by Market Segment (H1 '12 - H1 '14) Installations (MW) Utility sector installations are driven by RPS, lower installed costs & federal loan guarantees – Federal loan guarantees expired in 2011, but installations increased 43% from 2012-2013 – 57% of new installed PV capacity in 2013 came from the utilities segment Q2 2013: 543 MW | Q2 2014: 625 MW – contracted projects are on the rise Greater than 3 GW in the span of 6 months – RPS increases the number of projects taken on by utilities Operators can thus achieve economies of scale Residential sector shows continuous, steady growth – Q2 2014: 1133 MW (21% more than Q2 2013) Greater than 100 MW capacity installed without state incentives – H1 2014, >0.5 M homeowners and commercial customers have installed solar PV – 2014 forecast: 6512 MW (36% over ‘13 & 650% over ‘10) Increase: 136% 1784 Utility H1 '14 91% 310% Government subsidies and financial tools to support capital investments in the solar power industry are on the rise and allow operators to economically meet the increasing demand. Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Goldman Sachs: North American Energy Summit, Forbes: Clean Energy Yield Cos, IREC, International Energy Association, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), GTM Research, Solar Energy Information Association (SEIA), 7 Trend #3: Solar power approaching grid-parity will allow price competitiveness with conventional utilities and incentivize large-scale move towards clean energy WTI Crude Oil Prices & Volatility Increasingly favorable move towards clean 140 energy production in the US and abroad Unlike oil & natural gas and nuclear-powered 120 facilities, solar facilities don’t face the 100 increased tendency of blackouts, caused by– 80 – natural disasters 60 – increasing sea-level rise 40 – global warming 20 Solar power allows users to hedge against 0 fuel-price volatility risk 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CLZ4 COMB Comdty Price CLZ4 COMB Comdty Hist Vol (10D) CLZ4 COMB Comdty Implied Vol Henry Hub Spot Prices & Historical Volatility Solar's Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE) 0.25 0.16 2009 2010 2011 0.13 2012 $/KWh 0.10 2013 0.08 2014 2015 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 120 100 80 60 40 20 11/25/14 12/28/12 01/28/11 NGUSHHUB INCX Index (3.) Price 02/27/09 03/30/07 04/22/05 Historical Volatility (%) 0.36 Price ($/MBtu) 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 2008 0 NGUSHHUB INCX Index (2.) Hist Vol (60W) Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Goldman Sachs: North American Energy Summit, Forbes: Clean Energy Yield Cos, International Energy Agency: Tech Roadmap: Solar PV Energy, 8 Trend #3: Solar power approaching grid-parity will allow price competitiveness with conventional utilities and incentivize large-scale move towards clean energy Cost of Electricity at Grid Parity of $3.00 $/KWh Solar offers a long-term solution for— – pollution reduction – limiting carbon emissions – implementing higher fuel-economy standards Solar power may be a viable solution because– – The price of solar power has hit grid parity in at least 10 states – 9.4 GW of solar power can displace 9.23 Million metric tons of CO2 emissions yearly LCOE $0.20 $0.15 $/KWh Millions of metric tons of CO2 Average Cost of Electricity (2014) Cost of Electricity at Grid Parity of $2.50 CO2 Savings from Renewable Sources & Non Carbon-intensive Fossil Fuels 290 240 190 140 90 40 -10 $0.40 $0.35 $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $- $0.10 $0.05 $- 2005 2006 2007 Renewable sources Key Takeaway 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Non-Carbon-intensive fossil fuels LCOE Average Cost of Electricity While conventional utilities offer large-scale production, solar power is becoming price-competitive. Moreover, it offers a long-term solution for depleting non-renewable resources as well as clean energy, and allows users to hedge against fuel-price volatility risk. Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Goldman Sachs: North American Energy Summit, Forbes: Clean Energy Yield Cos, International Energy Agency: Tech Roadmap: Solar PV Energy, Deutsche Bank, EIA 9 Risks faced by the Industry Heavy dependence on subsidies • Industry assistance through government legislation and other incentives policies is high, and any change could impact producers entering the industry. • The state of the economy can create budgetary constraints leading to subsidiary rollbacks, which are crucial for firms in this industry to cover their high capital costs. Small increase in overall electricity consumption • Electricity demand is estimated to increase at only 0.7% CAGR as it has in the past twenty years, which could limit the need for alternate energy sources, especially given the significant decrease in natural gas prices coupled with increasing activity in the fracking industry. • Tariffs on imports of PV modules • Firms that import panels or outsource their production of panels, may see an increase in costs due to new tariffs implemented by foreign governments. Production of cheap panels from China and Malaysia may be cut back if foreign firms seek profit opportunities, thus offsetting the decrease in upstream costs Key Takeaway With solar power hitting grid parity and technology efficiency driving down prices, dependence on government policy assistance will decrease. Coupled with other sector-wide risks that are not faced by the solar power industry, such as fuel price volatility, and no need for resources like water, as well as no harm to the environment, companies in the solar power industry have a significant upside potential in the near future. Sources: IbisWorld, Goldman Sachs: North American Energy Summit, NASDAQ: Alternative Energy Stock Outlook (Feb 2014) 10 Multiples Ticker NYLD ABY NEP FSLR AMRC CSIQ Name NRG Yield Inc. 52 52 Week Price Week Low High ADJ ADJ Market Enterprise EPS Est PE EPS Est Cap Value Current Ratio Next Yr Yr Price to Price To Price to Book Sales EBITDA Return Return on on Assets Equity 47.39 36.11 54.65 3664.43 5617.28 1.60 2.04 59.42 1.23 2.43 3.89 1.36 -2.09 28.20 26.87 40.38 2256.00 5126.98 0.10 1.09 44.46 1.23 10.29 15.49 0.99 3.14 NextEra Energy Partners LP 37.81 25.00 37.81 3521.26 2572.37 0.69 1.08 23.97 1.26 2.44 11.78 0.42 2.31 48.80 47.56 73.87 4890.31 5697.61 2.68 4.45 16.55 1.02 1.55 9.19 4.06 5.87 7.71 5.74 10.80 416.08 0.21 0.17 110.14 1.27 0.60 11.42 0.54 1.20 24.29 21.71 43.67 1333.32 2585.85 4.03 4.88 8.67 2.05 0.52 6.27 6.91 35.74 High 4.03 4.88 110.14 2.05 10.29 15.49 6.91 35.74 Mean 1.55 2.28 43.87 1.34 2.97 9.67 2.38 7.69 Median 1.14 1.57 34.22 1.25 1.99 10.30 1.18 2.73 Low 0.10 0.17 8.67 1.02 0.52 3.89 0.42 -2.09 Abengoa Yield plc First Solar Inc. Ameresco Inc. Canadian Solar Inc. 357.36 *in millions of USD, except per share data 11 Value Weighted Index Value-Weighted Index 2500.00 2000.00 1500.00 1000.00 500.00 0.00 AVG MC S&P 500 Russell 2000 Energy Index 12 Summary Recommendation Decreasing dependence on government subsidies Increasing capacity and contracted projects Decreasing upstream costs and development in technology efficiency making solar costcompetitive with conventional utilities Solar at its cheapest now– buy-in before upstream costs increase or future legislation makes it more expensive Industry Rating: Positive US produced enough energy to power 1.5M homes in Q2 ’13 & 3.2M in Q1 ‘14 Industry operators experiencing economies of scale Solar hitting grid parity US well-positioned to take advantage of these trends US has 9% of global PV cumulative installed capacity share 13 THANK YOU 14 BACK-UP SLIDES 15 Sector Overview Investment in Renewable Energy Energy 300 250 $bn 200 150 100 Gas, Water & Multiutilities Electricity 50 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Govt + corporate R&D, small projects Gas Distribution Multiutilities Water Conventional Electricity Total Financial Investment Total New Investment Alternative Electricity Key Strengths • Public and private sector investment in renewable energy was $77 B in the last two years alone • Renewable energy (ex-hydro) made up 41.3% of new power capacity added in all technologies in 2013, saving 1.2 billion tons of global CO2 emissions. • In 2013, world electricity generation from renewable resources reached 8.5%, compared to 7.8% in 2012. • By 2030, this number is estimated to rise to 25% Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IC Benchmark, Goldman Sachs: North American Energy Summit 16 Solar Power Industry: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis Medium threat of new entrants— capital intensive industry making entry difficult for start-ups with high industry assistance new entrants estimated to grow in the next 3-5 years Low supplier power— oversupply of panels high competition b/w suppliers more vertical integration in firms increasing outsourcing low concentration of firms Sources: IbisWorld, Competition— High, from conventional utilities Medium, from alternative utilities: Leader in renewable energy space Medium internal competition: Low firm concentration, but current firms have differentiated structures & services High buyer power— not as cost-efficient as conventional utilities but demand for green energy increasing High threat from substitutes— Conventional utilities currently cheaper, but in next 5 years coal prices to increase 8% and natural gas by 28% Alternative energy production not yet achieved economies of scale High switching costs 17 Trend #1: Back-up Data – Module Price Decrease Average Silicon Solar Module Spot Price Average PV Module Prices 1.8 1.4 Price ($/watt) Mid Price (USD/watt) 1.6 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0 12/1/2010 12/1/2011 12/1/2012 12/1/2013 3/1/2010 6/1/2010 9/1/2010 12/1/2010 3/1/2011 6/1/2011 9/1/2011 12/1/2011 3/1/2012 6/1/2012 9/1/2012 12/1/2012 3/1/2013 6/1/2013 9/1/2013 12/1/2013 3/1/2014 6/1/2014 9/1/2014 0.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 12/1/2014 US PV Module Prices (1989-2011) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 7 6 Price ($/peak watt) Price ($/watt) Solar Panel / Solar Module 120 W+ Weekly Retailer Price Average 5 4 3 2 1 0 Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, GTM Research, IREC, PV Insights, US Department of Energy 18 Trend #1: Back-up Data – Module Price Decrease & Increase in Installations Number of PV Solar System Installations Global PV Module Production 14000 40500 40000 29936 30000 25000 18406 20000 15000 10106 10000 5000 1399 1761 8000 6000 4000 2000 6725 1067 10000 0 2687 2004 2005 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Years Crystalline Silicon Module Overall Average Spot Price Price ($/watt) PV Capacity (MW) 35000 Capacity (MWDC) 12000 32701 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 11/30/2010 11/30/2011 Multi-crystalline Silicon Module % Change: -42.18% 11/30/2012 11/30/2013 Mono-crystalline Silicon Module -48.92% Sources: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, GTM Research, IREC, PV Insights, US Department of Energy 19 Long-term Value of Solar: Disruptive Potential Solar accounts for small share of overall energy supply, but since a increasingly higher proportion of new annual capacity is taken by solar, it has disruptive potential. • Wal-Mart stated that it will switch to 100% renewable power by 2020, up from around 20% today. • Mining and defense companies are looking to solar in remote and demanding environments. • In the hospitality sector, Starwood Hotels and Resorts has partnered with NRG Solar to begin installing solar at its hotels. • Verizon is spending $100 million on solar and fuel-cell technology to power its facilities and cell-network infrastructure. Why are companies doing such things? To diversify their energy supply, save money, and appeal to consumers. Sources: McKinsey Quarterly: The disruptive potential of solar power, 20 Trend #2 Backup Material – US well-positioned for new PV capacity additions New Installed PV Capacity (Global & USA) 45000 13.92% 40000 35000 7.20% 12.64% 30000 MW 25000 6.32% 20000 15000 10000 4.59% 5000 0 0.68% 0.93% 2000 2001 6.61% 2002 8.48% 5.61% 2003 2004 US Sources: EPIA, CleanTechnica 5.90% 7.11% 2005 2006 Overall 6.81% 6.58% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % of Overall 21 Trend #3 Backup Material – Potential future legislation against Carbon-intensive fossil fuels 1972- Clean Water Act- Established the basic structure for regulating discharges of pollutants into the waters of the United States 1977&1990- The Clean Air Act- Regulates air emissions from stationary and mobile sources. 1990- The Pollution Prevention Act- Focused on industry, government and public attention on reducing the amount of pollution through cost effective changes in production, operation, and raw materials use. 1990- Oil Pollution Act- Streamlined and strengthened EPA’s ability to prevent and respond to catastrophic oil spills1992- The Energy Policy Act of 1992-establishes a range of new subsidies and tax breaks for conservation and alternative energy sources. 2000- President Clinton’s Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles hands out $1.2 billion over eight years to automakers for development of hybrid cars. 2005- The Energy Policy Act provides loan guarantees for entities that develop or use innovative technologies that avoid the by-production of greenhouse gases. 2007- Energy Independence and Security Act- increase production of clean renewable fuels, promote research on and deploy greenhouse gas capture and storage options 22 Trend #3 Backup Material – Future predictions of oil prices (US EIA) Future Estimated Price of Crude Oil (WTI) 140 120 PRICE IN DOLLARS 100 80 60 40 20 0 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Historical spot price (dollars per barrel) STEO price forecast (dollars per barrel) NYMEX futures price (dollars per barrel) 95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval (dollars per barrel) 95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval (dollars per barrel) 23 Trend #3 Backup Material – Future prediction of natural gas prices (US EIA) Future Estimated Price of Natural Gas (Henry Hub) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Historical spot price (dollars per million Btu) Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 STEO forecast price (dollars per million Btu) NYMEX futures price (dollars per million Btu) 95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval (dollars per million Btu) 95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval (dollars per million Btu) 24 Residential price (dollars per thousand cubic feet) Nov-15 Sep-15 Jul-15 May-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 May-14 Mar-14 Jan-14 Nov-13 Sep-13 Jul-13 May-13 Mar-13 Jan-13 Nov-12 Sep-12 Jul-12 May-12 Mar-12 Jan-12 Nov-11 Sep-11 Jul-11 May-11 Mar-11 Jan-11 Nov-10 Sep-10 Jul-10 May-10 Mar-10 Jan-10 Trend #3 Backup Material – US Natural Gas Prices 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Henry Hub spot price (dollars per thousand cubic feet) 25 What is a Yieldco? Definition A company that owns primarily clean energy assets for the purpose of generating income which is mostly returned to investors through distribution of dividends out of the cash flow generated by the long-term contracts to sell power to utility companies. Properties i. ii. iii. iv. v. An investment yield vehicle, structured like a REIT but without double taxation Traded on stock exchanges Bundle existing power plants and projects with fixed, long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with utilities Create a buyer for completed projects Spinoffs of alternative energy companies or subsidiaries of established utility companies. (Usually, the parent company retains at least a 70 percent ownership stake in the spinoff.) 26 YieldCos Supporting Industry Growth i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. Aggregate income-producing assets, which transform non-liquid assets into tradable commodities Allows investors to tap into alternative energy sector without the risk of turbulent commodity prices • Reduce exposure to financial risk Provide source of financing with lower transactional cost, which can be obtained through traditional bank loans or debt/equity financing Due a lower cost of capital, make solar cheaper and more accessible to the public Allows developers to “recycle” capital i.e. build one plant and sell existing one into yieldco to raise equity Yieldcos have right of first refusal to purchase projects Yieldcos may acquire completed assets from independent companies Provides potential for growing dividend payments 27 YieldCos Supporting Industry Growth i. ii. iii. Major energy companies have spun-off yieldcos: • NRG Energy • Nextera Energy Approximate dividend yield > 4% More than 900 actively managed and passive funds now own at least one yieldco i. BlackRock Equity Dividend Fund ($29.3 B) ii. T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock fund ($9.2 B) NRG Yield’s Competitive Advantage • NRG Yield owns a diversified portfolio of renewable and conventional energy assets in the US. • It’s stock price appreciated 87% in the last one year since its IPO. • It is structured as a yield co, which reduces exposure to financial risk that is faced by other companies in the industry. • It’s cost of capital is in the 5-7% range, while the industry average range is 8-15%. • Since its IPO in 2013, insider actions show only an increasing trend of purchases. 28