Managing Capacity Chapter Objectives Be able to: Explain what capacity is, how firms measure capacity, and the difference between theoretical and rated capacity, Describe the pros and cons associated with three different capacity strategies: lead, lag, and match. Apply a wide variety of analytical tools to capacity decisions, including expected value and break-even analysis, decision trees, waiting line theory, and learning curves. © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 2 Capacity Decisions • Defining and measuring capacity • Strategic versus tactical capacity • Evaluating capacity alternatives • Advanced perspectives – Theory of Constraints – Waiting lines – Learning curves © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 3 Defining and Measuring Capacity Measure of an organization’s ability to provide goods or services Jiffy Lube Oil changes per hour Law firm Billable hours College Student hours per semester © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 4 Consider: Capacity for a PC Assembly Plant: (800 units/shift/line)×(% Good)×(# of lines)×(# of Shifts) Controllable Factors 1 or 2 shifts? 2 or 3 lines? Employee training? Uncontrollable Factors Supplier problems? 98% or 100% good? Late or on time? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 5 Strategic versus Tactical Capacity • Strategic: – One or more years out – “Bricks & Mortar” – Future technologies • Tactical: – One year or sooner – Workforce level, schedules, inventory, etc. © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 6 Capacity Capacity versus Time Planning & Control Tactical Planning Strategic Capacity Planning •Limited ability to adjust capacity •Detailed planning •Lowest risk • Workforce, inventory, subcontracting decisions • Intermediate-level planning •Moderate risk • “Bricks & mortar” decisions • High-level planning • High risk Days or weeks out Months out © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Years out Time Chapter 8, Slide 7 Capacity Strategies: When, How Much, and How? Demand Leader Excess Capacity Lost Business Laggard © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 8 How? • Make or Buy (e.g., subcontracting) • One extreme: “Virtual” Business Walden Paddlers (Marketing) Hardigg Industries (Manufacturing) Independent Dealers (Direct Sales) General Composites (Design) © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 9 Evaluating Capacity Alternatives • • • • Economies of scale (EOS) Expected value analysis (EVA) Decision Trees Break-even points (BEP) © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 10 Economies of Scale Total Cost for Fictional Line: Fixed cost + (Variable unit cost)×(X) = $200,000 + $4X Cost per unit for X=1? X=10,000? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 11 Shipping costs Fixed & Unit Cost Scenarios $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 Number of shipments Common Contract © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Private Chapter 8, Slide 12 Indifference Point Compares capacity alternatives — at what volume level do they cost the same? • Suppose one option has zero fixed cost and $750 per unit cost; the other option has $5,000 fixed cost, but only $300 per unit cost. $0 + $750X = $5,000 + $300X What is the volume, X, at the indifference point? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 13 Expected Value Analysis Forecasted demand or volume is uncertain, allows consideration of the variability in the data Data Requirements Capacity cost structure (alternatives?) Expected demand (multiple scenarios?) EVA Product and service requirements (e.g. time standards) © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 15 Expected Value Analysis Pennington Cabinet Company 2000 jobs per year (20% likelihood) 5000 jobs per year (50%) 7000 jobs per year (30%) Each job = $1,200 revenue © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 16 We Know: • Average job requires: 2 hours of machine time 3-1/3 hours of assembly team time • Machines and teams work 2000 hours per year • Each machine and team has yearly fixed cost = $200K • 3 different capacity scenarios (see next slide!) © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 17 Effective Capacity Number of Machines and Teams Number of Hours Available Each Year Maximum Jobs per Year Machines Teams Machines Machines Current 3 5 6,000 10,000 3,000 3,000 Expanded 5 9 10,000 18,000 5,000 5,400 New Site 7 12 14,000 24,000 7,000 7,200 Teams Teams What is the effective capacity of each capacity alternative? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 18 Alternate Demand Scenarios Current Level Expanded New Site Demand Revenue Fixed Expenses Revenue Fixed Expenses Revenue Fixed Expenses 2,000 $2,400,000 $1,600,000 $2,400,000 $2,800,000 $2,400,000 $3,800,000 5,000 $3,600,000 $1,600,000 $6,000,000 $2,800,000 $6,000,000 $3,800,000 7,000 $3,600,000 $1,600,000 $6,000,000 $2,800,000 $8,400,000 $3,800,000 What is the expected contribution if demand = 5000 AND we decide to move to a new site? Why does revenue for current capacity max out at $3.6 million? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 19 Net Revenue Table Demand Current Expanded New Site 3,000 $800,000 ($400,000) ($1,400,000) 5,000 $2,000,000 $3,200,000 $2,200,000 7,000 $2,000,000 $3,200,000 $4,600,000 © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 20 Expected Value of Each Capacity Alternative: Current capacity level (20%) × $800K +(50%) × $2000K +(30%) × $2000K = $1,760,000 © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 21 Expected Value of Each Capacity Alternative: Expanded capacity level (20%) × – $400K + (50%) × $3200K + (30%) × $3200K = $2,480,000 © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 22 Expected Value of Each Capacity Alternative: New Site capacity level + + (20%) × – $1400K (50%) × $2200K (30%) × $4600K = $2,200,000 © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 23 Conclusions for Pennington • Which alternative would you choose if you wanted to minimize the worst possible outcome (Maximin)? Maximize the best possible outcome (Maximax)? • Why is it important to know effective capacity? How could this help future capacity decisions? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 24 Decision Trees • Visual tool for evaluating choices using expected value analysis • Allows use of different outcomes and different probabilities of success for each Decision Tree Requirements • Decision points represented by – Choose the best input — the highest EVA, lowest cost, least risk, etc. • Outcome points represented by – Summation of all inputs (outcomes) weighted by their respective probabilities. No choice can be made at these points • Trees drawn from final decision to the outcomes affecting that decision, then on to lower level decisions that might affect the those outcomes, then the lower level outcomes affecting those lower level decisions, and so on © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 26 Ellison Seafood Example Here the probabilities affecting the demand level are the same for the three options considered. But the decision tree does allow them to be different, can you think of situations where this might be true? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 27 Decision Tree Criteria • Book example illustrates selecting highest revenue option. • Other option choices can be on basis of: – Using total cost for outcomes (useful when selling price is not known) – Using estimated risk for outcomes – Outcomes reflecting a desired result (choose highest EVA) Can you think of an example? – Outcomes reflecting undesirable results (choose lowest EVA) Can you think of an example? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 28 Break-Even Point (BEP) Considers revenue and costs, at what volume level are they equal? • Suppose each unit sells for $100, the fixed cost is $200,000 and the variable cost is $4 BEP $100X = $200,000 + $4X What is the breakeven volume, X? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 29 Self Test • EBB Industries must decide whether to invest in a new machine which has a yearly fixed cost of $40,000 and a variable cost of $50 per unit. • What is the break even point (BEP) if each unit sells for $200? • What is the expected value, given the following demand probabilities: 250 units (25%), 300 units (50%), 350 units (25%) © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 30 Advanced Perspectives • Theory of Constraints • Waiting lines •Learning curves Theory of Constraints Concept that the throughput of a supply chain is limited (constrained) by the process step with the lowest capacity. Sounds logical, but what does this mean for managing the other process steps? Theory of Constraints • Pipeline analogy • Which piece of the pipe is restricting the flow? • Would making parts A or D bigger help? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 33 Dealing with a Constraint Identify the constraint Exploit the constraint Keep it busy! Subordinate everything to the constraint Make supporting it the overall priority Elevate the constraint Try to increase its capacity — more hours, screen out defective parts from previous step, … Find the new constraint and repeat As one step is removed as a constraint, a new one will emerge. Which piece of the pipe on the previous slide would be the new constraint if Part C was increased in diameter? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 34 Waiting Lines • Waiting lines and services – Waiting and customer satisfaction – Factors affecting satisfaction • Waiting Line Theory – Terminology and assumptions – Illustrative example © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 35 Waiting at Outback Steakhouse... Waiting outside or in bar Waiting to get food... Leaving restaurant Waiting to pay bill ... © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 36 Key Points • Waiting time DECREASES value-added experience • On the other hand, adding serving capacity INCREASES costs • Businesses must have a way to analyze the impact of capacity decisions in environments where waiting occurs © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 37 COST Waiting and Customer Satisfaction Cost of service Cost of waiting Lost customers Waiting time © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 38 Cost of Waiting = f(Satisfaction) Factors Affecting Satisfaction 1. Firm-related factors 2. Customer-related factors © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 39 Firm-Related Factors • “Unfair” versus “fair” waits • Uncomfortable versus comfortable waits • Initial versus subsequent waits • Capacity decisions © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 40 Waiting Line (Queuing) Theory • Application of statistics to allow us to perform a detailed analysis of system – Utilization levels, line lengths, etc. • Terminology and assumptions © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 41 Terminology and Assumptions I Line Phase ? Service System © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 42 Terminology and Assumptions II Single-Channel Single-Phase ? Service ? Service Multiple-Channel Single-Phase ? Service © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 43 Terminology and Assumptions III Complex service environment ... ? Service ? Service ? Service ? Service ? Service © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 How would you describe this? Chapter 8, Slide 44 Terminology and Assumptions IV • Population: Infinite or Finite • Arrival rates: Random or constant rate – Random rates typically defined by Poisson distribution for infinite population • Service Rates: Random or constant – Random service rates typically described by exponential distribution • Priority rules (aka “Queue Discipline”) • Permissible queue length © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 45 Example • A single drive-in window for Bank • Arrival rate – 15 per hour, on average • Service rate – 20 per hour, on average • How many channels? Phases? • What kinds of questions might we have? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 46 Drive-In Bank = arrival rate = 15 cars per hour = service rate = 20 cars per hour Average utilization of the system: = = 0.75 © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 47 Drive-In Bank Probability of n arrivals during period T is: ( T ) T Pn e n! n e.g., probability of only 4 arrivals during a 45-minute period is: (15 0.75) 150.75 P4 e 0.87% 4! 4 © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 48 Drive-In Bank Average number of cars in the system: (waiting plus being served) 15 Cs 3.0 cars ( ) (20 15) © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 49 Drive-In Bank Average number of cars waiting: 2 Cw Cs ( ) ( ) 2 15 225 Cw 2.25 cars 20 (20 15) 100 © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 50 Drive-In Bank Average time spent in the system: (waiting plus being served) 1 1 Ts 0.2 hours 12 minutes ( ) (20 15) (How do we know the answer is in hours?) © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 51 Drive-In Bank Average time spent in the line: TW Ts 0.75 0.2 hours 9 minutes ( ) (How do we know the answer is in hours?) © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 52 Question? What happens as the arrival rate approaches the service rate? Suppose is now 19 cars per hour One Answer: Average number of cars waiting: 19 Cw 18.05 cars ( ) 20 (20 19) 2 2 Implications? What are we assuming here? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 54 Other Types of Systems (Discussed in the supplement to Chapter 8) • Single-channel, single-phase with constant service time – Example: Automatic car wash • Multiple-channel, multiple-phase (hospital) – Usually best handled using simulation analysis © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 55 Self Test I • Look back at the drive-in window example. How can we have an average line length > 1 while the average number of cars being served is < 1? • Similarly, what happens as the arrival rate approaches the service rate? • Suppose the teller at the drive-in window is given training and can now handle 25 cars an hour (a 25% increase in service rate). What happens to the average length of the line? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 56 Self Test II • Look back at the Outback Steakhouse example. What kind of queuing system is it? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 57 Question? How can capacity change, even when we do not hire new people or put in new equipment? Learning Curves • Recognize that people (and often equipment) become more productive over time due to learning. • First observed in aircraft production during World War II • Getting more emphasis as companies outsource more activities © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 59 A Formal Definition For every doubling of cumulative output, there will be a set percentage improvement in time per unit or some other measure of input Time per unit 10 hrs. 8 hrs. 80% learning curve Where does the name come from? 6.4 hrs. 5.12 hrs. 1 2 4 8 © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 4.096 hrs. 16 Output Chapter 8, Slide 60 A Formal Definition (cont’d) Tn T1n b Where: Tn = time for the nth unit T1 = time for the first unit b = ln(learning percent) / ln2 © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 61 Example • • • • • Reservation clerk at Delta Airlines First call (while training) takes 8 minutes Second call takes 6 minutes What is the learning rate? How long would you expect the 4th call to take? The 16th? The 32nd? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 62 Key Points • Quick improvements early on, followed by more and more gradual improvements • The lower the percentage, the steeper the learning curve • Practically speaking, there is a floor • Estimates of effective capacity must consider learning effects! © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 63 Another Question . . . How could learning curves be used in long-term purchasing contracts? Johnston Controls I • Johnston Controls won a contract to produce 2 prototype units for a new type of computer. • First unit took 5,000 hrs. to produce and $250K of materials • Second unit took 3,500 hrs. to produce and $200K of materials • Labor costs are $30/hour © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 65 Johnston Controls II • The customer has asked Johnston Controls to prepare a bid for an additional 10 units. • What are Johnston’s expected costs? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 66 Johnston Controls III • Labor learning rate: 3500 hours / 5000 hours = 70% • Materials learning rate: $200K / $250K = 80% © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 67 Johnston Controls IV • “Additional 10 units” means the third through twelfth units. • Total labor for units 3 through 12: = 5,000 hours × (5.501 – 1.7) = 19,005 hrs 5.501 is sum of nb for 12 units 1.7 is the sum of nb for the first two units © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 68 Johnston Controls V • Total material for units 3 through 12: = $250,000 × (7.227 – 1.8) = $1,356,750 © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 69 Johnston Controls VI • Total cost for “additional 10 units”: = $30 × (19,005 hours) + $1,356,750 = $1,926,900 What if there is a significant delay before the second contract? © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 70 Self-Test • Assume that there WILL BE a significant delay before Johnston Controls makes the next 10 units. Assuming that Johnston has to “start over” with regard to learning, estimate total cost for these additional 10 units. © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall --- Introduction to Operations and Supply Chain Management, 2/e --- Bozarth and Handfield, ISBN: 0131791036 Chapter 8, Slide 71 Case Study in Managing Capacity Forster’s Market